Jacksonville Elections 2027

[Charles Hunter]

Based on my look for turnout info at the School Board district level, this is quite an understatement, Steve

I can pull that - it's a good question with regard to the School Board races. The data is on the SOE site; just buried a bit.

All I could find is precinct level voting by contest. Even if I wanted to spend the time aggregating that, it wouldn't give me a 'turnout' number. Surely, the SOE has the data, I just can't find it.

[Tacachale]

Here's my point
648,838 Registered Voters
243,983 Democrats
237,891 Republicans
142,814 NPA
24,150 Other

150,880 Voted in this election
69,127 Democrats
68,801 Republicans
11,169 NPA
1,792 Other

% Electorate:
45.82% Democrats
45.60% Republicans
7.40% NPA
1.19% Other

% Voted
28.33% Democrats
28.20% Republicans
4.58% NPA
0.73% Other


My point is NPAs made up 7.4% of the electorate yesterday, yet only 4.58% of all NPAs voted, compared to over 28% of the Dem/Rep registered voters. Now that isn't shocking - like I said, the major draws in this race were part of closed primaries.

But, compare that to 2024 when 87,235 NPAs voted out of 145,296 registered NPAs (just over 60%), or even in the 2022 midterms where 48,359 registered NPAs voted out of 151,381 registered NPAs (just under 32%).

My point is trying to equate the NPA impact on a special election City Council Race (when nearly every other race on the ballot was a closed primary) to what might happen in November or Spring 2027 isn't statistically material. I do agree they had a measured impact in this City Council race though. Honestly this data right here was the basis of the argument as to why local elections were separated out from Presidential or the Midterm cycle.

Other random thoughts: I'd personally be in favor of moving our local elections to be in the fall of the year after the midterms vs. the Spring and having the local officials take office on 1/1 of the following year. Pick one year and they get a 3 1/2 or 4 1/2 year term to readjust. Not only is the fall a more natural election cycle, you get away from the hangover of the recent midterms. Plus it would eliminate the ridiculous budget cycle where the Mayor takes office on 7/1, only to have to present a budget two weeks later.

2024 was a presidential election year. 2026 (and 2027) are not. The key takeaways from this election are (1) Democrats outvoted Republicans, thanks in no small part to better GOTV efforts (in other words, when you put the money and work in, Democrats can be competitive, who'd have thought); (2) NPAs leaned Democratic in a big way they tend to lean against the party in power; and (3) it was clearly a race of candidate/campaign quality, and people are sick of dud candidates who act like they don't need your vote.

I can definitely say that the Democrats are taking these lessons to heart and not getting cocky or taking anything for granted. Will the Republicans do the same? The answer is in the quality of candidates they have running and the quality of their campaign consultants.

[marcuscnelson]

State Representative Wyman Duggan, a Republican, announced a bid for Mayor of Jacksonville today.

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2026/oct/02/legislator-wyman-duggan-announces-run-for-mayor/

[thelakelander]

The worst kept secret!

[Joey Mackey]

https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2026/10/02/live-state-rep-wyman-duggan-makes-announcement-at-duval-elections-office/

Jacksonville did not need an expensive urban science fair project while workers are trying to get to their jobs and seniors are trying to get to the doctor," he said. "That is not a transit problem. That is a leadership problem."

After Duggan highlighted recent budget issues and scrutiny of JTA this week, calling it "Donna Deegan's JTA," the mayor's office responded that JTA is a regional transportation agency and that JTA's staff is made up of state employees.

"It's disconcerting that an eight-year member of the state legislature and current Speaker of the House is either unaware of the structure or intentionally misleading the public," the mayor's office said in a statement.

The challenger's campaign message is completely predictable and could turn out to be effective. Instead of "passing the buck" the mayor's office needs to take the initiative on this JTA Scandal. That would mean holding the former JTA CEO responsible, we will see if that happens. 

[thelakelander]

Very predictable indeed. The discussion on FCC about JTA was pretty interesting today. Where was Duggan on JTA? Both can throw mud at each other over that one. JTA's science project has been in the works for a full decade now.

[Tacachale]

I'm not able to say much, as for me this is actual work and not just a political talking point. The mayor's administration is moving forward on resolving the JTA mess and City Council is too. Wyam Duggar or whatever his name is has no solution, or he'd be working on it now as the Speaker Pro Tempore of the Florida House. It's a state agency and the solution will need state action. But he just wants to use it as campaign shtick because he's got nothing to run on and he's desperate.

[marcuscnelson]

Very predictable indeed. The discussion on FCC about JTA was pretty interesting today. Where was Duggan on JTA? Both can throw mud at each other over that one. JTA's science project has been in the works for a full decade now.

Action News attempted to reach out to Duggan a while back about his position on JTA and the U2C.

He refused to comment, alongside many other local officials.

[Jax_Developer]

Someone find me the clip of Donna criticizing people for scrutinizing the UC2 on a podcast. Good luck twisting this one.

[thelakelander]

When it comes to the U2C, NAVI, JTA, both are residing in a glass house. So be careful with the stone throwing either way. Unless something super crazy pops up publicly that hasn't already, I don't see JTA being a major influence on the race either way.

[Ken_FSU]

When it comes to the U2C, NAVI, JTA, both are residing in a glass house. So be careful with the stone throwing either way. Unless something super crazy pops up publicly that hasn't already, I don't see JTA being a major influence on the race either way.

Fully agree.

I actually see downtown redevelopment focus being a bigger lighting rod than JTA, with Duggan pushing an over-investment narrative in the urban core at the expense of other neighborhoods.

Way too early prediction: Deegan wins comfortably, taking at least 54% of the vote.

[jaxlongtimer]

I think the midterms will be telling too.  If Duval goes heavy on Dems that will bode well for Deegan.  If it is tight or the other way, it could be a closer call in the Spring.

"They're waiting on a permit that should not require a lawyer and a friend at City Hall to get issued."

Interesting, given Duggan is a land use lawyer  .

Similarly, Duggan said he would consider removing JEA contributions to the city and instead use that funding to lower utility costs for ratepayers. He said he also would work to reduce the city's garbage fee, which increased from $151.80 in fiscal year 2025 to $384 in fiscal year 2027.

JEA contributes about 7.5% of the City's funding.  Eliminate that, especially in conjunction with Amendment 3, and the City is essentially out of business.  Add, that the garbage fee is at "bid costs" to the City after losing tens of millions delaying the garbage tax increase, and I wonder how reducing the fee and restoring those millions in losses would be covered.  It's easy to criticize, but where are the viable alternatives to cover these politically expedient "points."  We get what we pay for.

Outside of his work in politics, he is a shareholder and member of the governing board of the Rogers Towers law firm, where his specialty areas include land use, private property rights, and economic development.

As a land use attorney, I see developers being the main supporters of Duggan.  It's clear that between the lines, he is appealing to their interests.

The Duval County Democratic Party responded to Duggan's announcement with an attack on Duggan's legislative record, saying he "repeatedly supported legislation that shifted decision-making authority away from local governments and into the hands of Tallahassee." The party said Duggan's voting record included "taking away local input on zoning and land use decisions, imposing unfunded state mandates on municipalities and advancing policies that could significantly reduce funding for essential local services such as public safety, parks, libraries, roads and infrastructure."

"Jacksonville deserves a leader who stands up for our community every day, not someone whose record consistently favors Tallahassee over local families," Millie Leeds, chair of the Duval County Democratic Party said in the party's statement. "When voters look beyond the campaign rhetoric and examine Wyman Duggan's legislative record, they'll see a pattern of supporting policies that weaken our local community's ability to address pressing issues and jeopardize the investments that make Jacksonville a great place to live."

Dems should play up these points at every turn, not just in Duval, but statewide.  GOP claims to be the party of "local" government but, under DeSantis, they are the party of centralized and controlling State government.

Lastly, I would be interested to know of any connections between Curry and Duggan.  That could be politically "fatal" in my opinion.

All quotes above at:

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2026/oct/02/legislator-wyman-duggan-announces-run-for-mayor/

Just found this add-on quote:

"Under this administration, we have had disputes involving JEA, the (Jacksonville Transportation Authority), and the Jacksonville Aviation Authority, and JAA has threatened to sue the city."

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/823058-wyman-duggan-makes-up-ground-against-donna-deegan-in-fundraising-race-but-theres-a-long-way-to-go-still/

All these disputes were initiated by his fellow Republican's on the City Council to gain political points, nothing more.  (Notably, where is the complaint about the real JEA scandal under fellow Republican Curry?)  And, other than Howland getting a piece of legislation in Tallahassee (Duggan assisted?) passed to meaninglessly modify the JAA charter due to effective limits imposed by the FAA on JAA funding and JEA CEO Cavey resigning due to health issues, nothing earthshaking came out of any of these manufactured dust-ups.  So where is Deegan to blame? This is really grabbing at straws.

FYI, Florida Politics added this observation about Duggan's funds:

One name that may be worth watching down the stretch in that context: the "Very Conservative" political committee. Duggan's committee gave it $30,000.

[Zac T]

That was a very uninspiring campaign launch. Nothing he said makes me think he would improve my quality of life

[Charles Hunter]

That was a very uninspiring campaign launch. Nothing he said makes me think he would improve my quality of life

You must not be a Big Time Real Estate Developer