Jacksonville Elections 2027

[Charles Hunter]

Based on my look for turnout info at the School Board district level, this is quite an understatement, Steve

I can pull that - it's a good question with regard to the School Board races. The data is on the SOE site; just buried a bit.

All I could find is precinct level voting by contest. Even if I wanted to spend the time aggregating that, it wouldn't give me a 'turnout' number. Surely, the SOE has the data, I just can't find it.

[Tacachale]

Here's my point
648,838 Registered Voters
243,983 Democrats
237,891 Republicans
142,814 NPA
24,150 Other

150,880 Voted in this election
69,127 Democrats
68,801 Republicans
11,169 NPA
1,792 Other

% Electorate:
45.82% Democrats
45.60% Republicans
7.40% NPA
1.19% Other

% Voted
28.33% Democrats
28.20% Republicans
4.58% NPA
0.73% Other


My point is NPAs made up 7.4% of the electorate yesterday, yet only 4.58% of all NPAs voted, compared to over 28% of the Dem/Rep registered voters. Now that isn't shocking - like I said, the major draws in this race were part of closed primaries.

But, compare that to 2024 when 87,235 NPAs voted out of 145,296 registered NPAs (just over 60%), or even in the 2022 midterms where 48,359 registered NPAs voted out of 151,381 registered NPAs (just under 32%).

My point is trying to equate the NPA impact on a special election City Council Race (when nearly every other race on the ballot was a closed primary) to what might happen in November or Spring 2027 isn't statistically material. I do agree they had a measured impact in this City Council race though. Honestly this data right here was the basis of the argument as to why local elections were separated out from Presidential or the Midterm cycle.

Other random thoughts: I'd personally be in favor of moving our local elections to be in the fall of the year after the midterms vs. the Spring and having the local officials take office on 1/1 of the following year. Pick one year and they get a 3 1/2 or 4 1/2 year term to readjust. Not only is the fall a more natural election cycle, you get away from the hangover of the recent midterms. Plus it would eliminate the ridiculous budget cycle where the Mayor takes office on 7/1, only to have to present a budget two weeks later.

2024 was a presidential election year. 2026 (and 2027) are not. The key takeaways from this election are (1) Democrats outvoted Republicans, thanks in no small part to better GOTV efforts (in other words, when you put the money and work in, Democrats can be competitive, who'd have thought); (2) NPAs leaned Democratic in a big way they tend to lean against the party in power; and (3) it was clearly a race of candidate/campaign quality, and people are sick of dud candidates who act like they don't need your vote.

I can definitely say that the Democrats are taking these lessons to heart and not getting cocky or taking anything for granted. Will the Republicans do the same? The answer is in the quality of candidates they have running and the quality of their campaign consultants.

[marcuscnelson]

State Representative Wyman Duggan, a Republican, announced a bid for Mayor of Jacksonville today.

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2026/oct/02/legislator-wyman-duggan-announces-run-for-mayor/

[thelakelander]

The worst kept secret!

[Joey Mackey]

https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2026/10/02/live-state-rep-wyman-duggan-makes-announcement-at-duval-elections-office/

Jacksonville did not need an expensive urban science fair project while workers are trying to get to their jobs and seniors are trying to get to the doctor," he said. "That is not a transit problem. That is a leadership problem."

After Duggan highlighted recent budget issues and scrutiny of JTA this week, calling it "Donna Deegan's JTA," the mayor's office responded that JTA is a regional transportation agency and that JTA's staff is made up of state employees.

"It's disconcerting that an eight-year member of the state legislature and current Speaker of the House is either unaware of the structure or intentionally misleading the public," the mayor's office said in a statement.

The challenger's campaign message is completely predictable and could turn out to be effective. Instead of "passing the buck" the mayor's office needs to take the initiative on this JTA Scandal. That would mean holding the former JTA CEO responsible, we will see if that happens. 

[thelakelander]

Very predictable indeed. The discussion on FCC about JTA was pretty interesting today. Where was Duggan on JTA? Both can throw mud at each other over that one. JTA's science project has been in the works for a full decade now.

[Tacachale]

I'm not able to say much, as for me this is actual work and not just a political talking point. The mayor's administration is moving forward on resolving the JTA mess and City Council is too. Wyam Duggar or whatever his name is has no solution, or he'd be working on it now as the Speaker Pro Tempore of the Florida House. It's a state agency and the solution will need state action. But he just wants to use it as campaign shtick because he's got nothing to run on and he's desperate.

[marcuscnelson]

Very predictable indeed. The discussion on FCC about JTA was pretty interesting today. Where was Duggan on JTA? Both can throw mud at each other over that one. JTA's science project has been in the works for a full decade now.

Action News attempted to reach out to Duggan a while back about his position on JTA and the U2C.

He refused to comment, alongside many other local officials.