Jacksonville Elections 2027

[Charles Hunter]

Based on my look for turnout info at the School Board district level, this is quite an understatement, Steve

I can pull that - it's a good question with regard to the School Board races. The data is on the SOE site; just buried a bit.

All I could find is precinct level voting by contest. Even if I wanted to spend the time aggregating that, it wouldn't give me a 'turnout' number. Surely, the SOE has the data, I just can't find it.

[Tacachale]

Here's my point
648,838 Registered Voters
243,983 Democrats
237,891 Republicans
142,814 NPA
24,150 Other

150,880 Voted in this election
69,127 Democrats
68,801 Republicans
11,169 NPA
1,792 Other

% Electorate:
45.82% Democrats
45.60% Republicans
7.40% NPA
1.19% Other

% Voted
28.33% Democrats
28.20% Republicans
4.58% NPA
0.73% Other


My point is NPAs made up 7.4% of the electorate yesterday, yet only 4.58% of all NPAs voted, compared to over 28% of the Dem/Rep registered voters. Now that isn't shocking - like I said, the major draws in this race were part of closed primaries.

But, compare that to 2024 when 87,235 NPAs voted out of 145,296 registered NPAs (just over 60%), or even in the 2022 midterms where 48,359 registered NPAs voted out of 151,381 registered NPAs (just under 32%).

My point is trying to equate the NPA impact on a special election City Council Race (when nearly every other race on the ballot was a closed primary) to what might happen in November or Spring 2027 isn't statistically material. I do agree they had a measured impact in this City Council race though. Honestly this data right here was the basis of the argument as to why local elections were separated out from Presidential or the Midterm cycle.

Other random thoughts: I'd personally be in favor of moving our local elections to be in the fall of the year after the midterms vs. the Spring and having the local officials take office on 1/1 of the following year. Pick one year and they get a 3 1/2 or 4 1/2 year term to readjust. Not only is the fall a more natural election cycle, you get away from the hangover of the recent midterms. Plus it would eliminate the ridiculous budget cycle where the Mayor takes office on 7/1, only to have to present a budget two weeks later.

2024 was a presidential election year. 2026 (and 2027) are not. The key takeaways from this election are (1) Democrats outvoted Republicans, thanks in no small part to better GOTV efforts (in other words, when you put the money and work in, Democrats can be competitive, who'd have thought); (2) NPAs leaned Democratic in a big way they tend to lean against the party in power; and (3) it was clearly a race of candidate/campaign quality, and people are sick of dud candidates who act like they don't need your vote.

I can definitely say that the Democrats are taking these lessons to heart and not getting cocky or taking anything for granted. Will the Republicans do the same? The answer is in the quality of candidates they have running and the quality of their campaign consultants.