JTA meetings on the future of the Skyway

[Ken_FSU]

Laws and intentions aside, I do hope that Rory's posturing about Waymo draws additional attention to the JTA's frivolous, duplicative spend on AV technology. Disagree slightly that NAVI and Waymo are two different things. From day one, JTA has positioned the long-term future of NAVI as a fleet-based system of AVs that could be hailed via app and clustered/surged for special events. To me, that's essentially rideshare, like Waymo, or Uber, or Lyft. And something we have no business investing limited mass-transit dollars into.

I'm also not sold on Waymo seeing Jacksonville as a great fit in the short-term. We lack the local population density of most Waymo markets, and I assume we run lighter on business travel, large events/conferences, and tourism than markets like Miami, Orlando, or Tampa. I don't get the sense that traditional rideshare like Uber flourishes in Jax, just because of how much dead space there is between rides.

[thelakelander]

Waymo is ride share. JTA is all over the place with NAVI...it just depends on what the audience in the room is more interested in hearing.

JTA has tried selling NAVI as a Skyway replacement and somehow positioned the huge positive of mass transit dedicated ROW as a negative for the existing system (when this is the greatest asset it has).

However, when they describe NAVI as being "flexible", its still not a taxi or ride share. Its just a bastardized version of a fixed route without visible guideway while also not having the capacity to move masses of transit users on its own. More of a modern version of bus "flexibility " when compared to technologies that require "permanent" fixed routes. Its like a little Frankenstein that is inadequate in any direction you want to go, when compared to tried and true things we already know will work.

Waymo won't stop it anymore than Uber or Lyft, as it can't be inaccurately promoted as a transit solution for Jax. Unfortunately, local common sense and logic will have to reign supreme over politics to drastically shift this beast.

[Jax_Developer]

The only thing stopping the U2C is Jacksonville. Lake, the focus of the existing AV movement has been centered around the technology. Once that piece is finalized, these companies will start shifting towards various tailored services. Think of Uber today. They have standard, premium, black, ADA, XL, etc. The same concept will occur with AV providers.

The solution will almost certainly reduce public transit ridership. Pay a little more for your own ride. Pay a little less for a ride share. At some point, the cost of these solutions will be so discriminated (economically) that the benefits of public transit just won't make any sense to the vast majority of riders.

If we think about the number of trips being taken by ev scooters & ev bikes in more major cities, this form of transit has certainly replaced what would have otherwise been a public transit solution. The AV tech giants of the world will essentially do the exact same thing. Solo females would be the most obvious demographic in that idea of tailored solutions. How much more will you pay for a cleaner, safer & more efficient form of transit. That number is understandably different for everyone.

- When it comes to convenience, the U2C loses.
- When it comes to route flexibility, the U2C loses.
- When it comes to service area, the U2C loses.
- When it comes to reliability, JTA loses.

When it comes to capacity, well... I don't think a few more seats is gonna really change a thing. At the end of the day, Waymo/Robotaxi is so obviously a better product, with immensely better teams & solutions, I give it a little bit of time before we see headlines on why Jacksonville doesn't need Waymo. Lol.

[thelakelander]

^The problem I see is that we like to move goal posts locally. Waymo being here won't kill the U2C. It will continue to limp right along, burning millions in local tax money, until Jax decides to take it out back and put it out of its misery.

[Charles Hunter]

I can't argue with JaxDeveloper's crystal ball on how the proliferation of for-profit ride-share service - both AV and with drivers - will decrease fixed-route and flexible public transit. My concern is for those who cannot afford ride-share rates? Transit providers, in general, and JTA in particular, will be faced with declining patronage, but patrons who truly need the service.

Is the future of "public transportation" providing vouchers so the "transit dependent" can use ride-share services? Which brings about a whole new bureaucracy of means testing, distribution (even if electronic, there's a cost), and auditing.

[Tacachale]

Ridehailing has already contributed to a drop in transit ridership pretty much everywhere. How much more of a shift autonomous ridehailing will cause is an open question that'll be based on how much cheaper or prolific they can actually be.

They certainly could end up being cheaper, but we've yet to see what the real market actually looks like. Uber and Lyft based their growth on keeping prices (and wages) artificially low for years. That was obviously unsustainable in the long term and they've since jacked up the prices to show a profit (while still screwing the drivers, not to mention all their lobbying and monopolistic practices). Now we have Waymo and Cyber Taxi, and they're starting to get down to Uber's prices... but they're also artificially keeping their prices down (not to mention their lobbying, monopolistic practices, and throwing drivers to the curb entirely). It'll be years until we know what the true market for all this is although the effects on public transit ridership will be felt long before we get that picture.

[Tacachale]

Also, last of this round of Skyway meetings is happening at the Doubletree on the Southbank tomorrow, Thursday, March 26 at 11 am and 5 pm. Come on out and make your voice heard:

https://www.jtafla.com/about-us/public-hearings-and-notices/skyway-rehabilitation-project-development-and-environment-study-public-meeting-march-26-2026/

[Jax_Developer]

I agree with the moving goal posts Lake.

Charles, every single form of technology has had a similar price curve. Nothing different here. There is no ability for a human driver service to compete with a product that has no direct labor cost and that's why companies are willing to lose billions to disrupt the human transportation market.

The situation that will eventually present itself is painfully obvious for those who are aware of how tech markets work. Right now we are in the Early Adapter phase, once it hits mass, the transit industry will be shifted forever. The only form of transit that I can't see being heavily affected are heavy transit options. Things like rail where an open road competitor will never be able to realistically compete due to external factors that ultimately lead to heavy transit being much much more cost effective & efficient. Price curves in the Tech industry are relentless & there are no other industries than even come close.

Inflation since 2005 is ~67%.

Entry Level HDTV in 2005: $3,000+
Entry Level HDTV in 2025: $200

Entry Level Personal Computer in 2005: $400 - $600
Entry Level Personal Computer in 2025: $300 - $500 (with more than 1000x the computing power)

We are going to see the exact same outcome with AV's. These companies are starting with regular street cars with 'kits' on them. Eventually they will all be modular. How many modular cars would you expect Waymo to be able to produce with $500,000? Something tells me way more than 1. The real price will be below what Uber/Lyft charge now - that's why they are motivated to be in the AV race. Sure it'll take years, but any solution JTA proposes will be more costly, slower, and with a team with zero track record.

Let's stick to the basics & stop with this local AV crap. Fix the existing Skyway, do the Brooklyn Extension, and if there's money leftover, find a reasonable extension. The existing Bus system is crap & that only further supports integration of other solutions.

[jaxlongtimer]

The existing Bus system is crap & that only further supports integration of other solutions.

Good points Jax D.  Only thing I take some issue with is the last sentence.  Bus system is crap because JTA is crap.  I have ridden buses or trolleys in other cities and they provided excellent and reliable service.  JTA is focused on the fantasy U2C and Skyway at the expense of the bus system, in my opinion. 

Fox 30/47 did an expose awhile back on how poorly JTA's bus metrics are compared to national averages proving JTA is the problem, not buses.  Buses, properly operated, are flexible in use and service, cost effective, quickly adaptable and expandable to changing demands and carry decent numbers of passengers.  Nothing else compares. 

As I have noted before, JTA has given MASS transit in this City a giant black eye between poor bus operations, the Skyway and, now, U2C.