Debating The Future of Cities, and Urban Density, After the Pandemic

[thelakelander]

^ the facts don't support that density is necessarily a big factor

https://www.cnu.org/publicsquare/2020/03/23/plague-don%E2%80%99t-count-cities-out

But people being close to each other does increase the likelihood of transmission. Hence, "social distancing". If a person becomes infected, he has a greater chance of trasmitting the virus to more people if he comes into contact with more people.

The author actually addresses this in the "crowding" part of the piece.

I can definitely see the problem with the clustering issue. It doesn't matter how dense or large a city is overall, if people are still clustering close for events like church services, funerals, weddings, grocery shopping, hanging out at the beach, etc.

[Tacachale]

^ the facts don't support that density is necessarily a big factor

https://www.cnu.org/publicsquare/2020/03/23/plague-don%E2%80%99t-count-cities-out

But people being close to each other does increase the likelihood of transmission. Hence, "social distancing". If a person becomes infected, he has a greater chance of trasmitting the virus to more people if he comes into contact with more people.

The author actually addresses this in the "crowding" part of the piece.

I can definitely see the problem with the clustering issue. It doesn't matter how dense or large a city is overall, if people are still clustering close for events like church services, funerals, weddings, grocery shopping, hanging out at the beach, etc.

There's also the matter that there are a lot more people today than in any previous pandemic, and proportionately more live in or near cities versus rural areas than in the past.

[Adam White]

But people being close to each other does increase the likelihood of transmission. Hence, "social distancing". If a person becomes infected, he has a greater chance of trasmitting the virus to more people if he comes into contact with more people.

My gf showed me these models based off of cellphone tracking last night.

March 24th - Ft. Lauderdale Spring Breakers

https://twitter.com/TectonixGEO/status/1242628347034767361

March 25th - Lower Manhattan epicenter

https://twitter.com/i/status/1243006977594273792

Jesus Christ.

[Adam White]

^ the facts don't support that density is necessarily a big factor

https://www.cnu.org/publicsquare/2020/03/23/plague-don%E2%80%99t-count-cities-out

But people being close to each other does increase the likelihood of transmission. Hence, "social distancing". If a person becomes infected, he has a greater chance of trasmitting the virus to more people if he comes into contact with more people.

The author actually addresses this in the "crowding" part of the piece.

I can definitely see the problem with the clustering issue. It doesn't matter how dense or large a city is overall, if people are still clustering close for events like church services, funerals, weddings, grocery shopping, hanging out at the beach, etc.

Of course. But the bigger the city, the more people to cluster. In fact, the more likely to just 'cluster' when going about doing everyday tasks. And the harder to control, you'd think.

[thelakelander]

I'd argue that's the case with any place that has more than a couple of hundred people that rely on the same social venues and businesses for survival. Then, the more sprawling and disconnected the community is, the harder to control or siphon it off from the world surrounding it. A bigger compact place may have a higher absolute number, in the event of an outbreak within that social circle. However, the more compact, arguably the easier it would be to contain to that specific location. Time will tell but at this point, I'd question if Jax will end up being any better off than a denser community like Miami or New York when it's all said and done (assuming no vaccine is found soon).

[Adam White]

I'd argue that's the case with any place that has more than a couple of hundred people that rely on the same social venues and businesses for survival. Then, the more sprawling and disconnected the community is, the harder to control or siphon it off from the world surrounding it. A bigger compact place may have a higher absolute number, in the event of an outbreak within that social circle. However, the more compact, arguably the easier it would be to contain to that specific location. Time will tell but at this point, I'd question if Jax will end up being any better off than a denser community like Miami or New York when it's all said and done (assuming no vaccine is found soon).

Yeah, I doubt Jax will end up being any better than those places in the long run - though the rate of spread might be slower.

One thing that is working in Jacksonville's favor (as much as I hate to say it) is the lack of any real public transportation system whatsoever. They generally say that spreading the virus tends to happen with sustained (about 15 min) close contact with others. If you still travel to and from everywhere in your car, you're safer. But as gorcery stores, etc get busier and fail to institute social-distancing protocols, you'll be putting yourself in risk waiting in line or whatever.

[BridgeTroll]

Does the future of cities following this pandemic include building physical elementary, middle and high schools?  We are now seeing the learn at home model... is this the wave of the future?  How about physical college and university campuses?  After the past two  weeks we may have seen the beginning of the end of the physical school...

Think Alice Cooper's "Schools Out"... 

[Adam White]

Does the future of cities following this pandemic include building physical elementary, middle and high schools?  We are now seeing the learn at home model... is this the wave of the future?  How about physical college and university campuses?  After the past two  weeks we may have seen the beginning of the end of the physical school...

Think Alice Cooper's "Schools Out"... 

I hope they still build schools. I'm about to expel my son from home school...

[BridgeTroll]

Does the future of cities following this pandemic include building physical elementary, middle and high schools?  We are now seeing the learn at home model... is this the wave of the future?  How about physical college and university campuses?  After the past two  weeks we may have seen the beginning of the end of the physical school...

Think Alice Cooper's "Schools Out"... 

I hope they still build schools. I'm about to expel my son from home school...

Lol... happening all over...

[BridgeTroll]

https://quillette.com/2020/05/14/towards-a-better-urbanism/

Published on May 14, 2020
Towards a Better Urbanism
written by Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky

The pandemic has brought panic to the once-confident ranks of urbanists promoting city density. At a time when even the New York Times is noticing that density and transit pose serious health risks for any potential re-opening, such people attack their critics as "anti-urbanist" or "sprawl lovers" or "urban gadflies." Preferring theology over data, some advocate ever-greater density and crowding in cities and mass transit....

[vicupstate]

https://dirt.asla.org/2020/05/13/the-pandemic-will-lead-to-a-revitalization-of-main-street-retail/

[BridgeTroll]

Hmmm... looks like two sets of "urbanistas" have wildly different views on post pandemic urban centers...

[thelakelander]

Most likely the real outcome is somewhere in the middle. Anyone acting as an expert on predicting what cities will become because of the pandemic is basically making points for whatever side of the fence they already fall on. In reality, no one even knows what will happen to cities years from now. We can't even predict that there will be a football season with fans in the stands right now.

[Adam White]

One other thing to consider is that cities tend to have more resources, too. Like more (and generally, better) hospitals. More gorcery stores (and shops with delivery services). So there is more infrastructure in place.

I can see the benefits to either argument and I guess my way of looking at it is that if there is a pandemic, nowhere in particular is guaranteed to be 'safe' - so if you prefer suburban living, you will have to adapt in certain ways, but you will be able to live in your preferred setting. If you prefer urban life, then you will have other challenges to adapt to and consider, but will be able to live in your preferred setting.

Also - pandemics suck, but they are inevitable. That said, they don't tend to happen all the time (at least not yet, though with climate change, it is theorised that there will likely be an increase in epidemics and pandemics). There are other reasons to choose where you live and your choices probably shouldn't be driven by one particular factor.

[BridgeTroll]

It seems certain to me that working from home will be much more prevalent than in the past. Companies will no longer need huge office buildings to house workers. Most major companies found that with minor tweaks their operations ran smoothly with ALL employees working from home...
I  can also see the same occurring in education... especially higher education. Why build expensive infrastructure when students can simply log in?