JTA planning to seek bids to build, run U2C

[thelakelander]

Yea, neglecting to factor in the inflated cost of a construction project is pretty disingenuous. Also, you're not showing a trend or average of all projects, you're cherry picking projects that confirm your argument, and as bl8 pointed out, don't match apples-to-apples with the LRT being discussed here.

Misleading post, lake.

I'm not cherry picking anything. I just answered the comment that nothing had been built in the range of $30 million per mile in the last two decades. It's not my responsibility to explain or break down a trend or average of all projects built in the last two decades. It's also not my responsibility to take the time to explain how bells and whistles items typically thrown into the most recent projects can dramatically raise the overall cost. Palm trees, complete streets rebuilds, cream of the crop materials, and fancy and expensive rolling stock have nothing to do with the creation of a no-frills system. That's why these projects range in price dramatically. To me this is common sense, so taking an average of things that include projects with extensive elevated or underground sections and claiming that's the going cost of a type of transportation is actually disingenuous.

[thelakelander]

I wish this were in person to help convey that, at least from my point of view, this is a __friendly__ pissing match.

That's the tricky thing with online crap... how does one convey that sort of thing?

No worries, this is all fun and games and good debate. I don't take anything on discussion boards serious or harbor ill will to anyone.

OK, note that if the first example you pick for LRT is not LRT, you may not be thinking this thing through well enough.   There are important reasons why to seperate out LRT from trolleys and commuter rail.  Experts in the industry didn't just accidentally stumble into those distinctions.

I figured you'd go here. I'd argue that streetcars are a form of light rail. Since I knew this likely be an issue, I added a few LRT starter lines built in the last two decades to show they were no where near the $100 million per mile mark.
 

Restoring ol' Mandy the Mule to go 8 mph down the middle of a street has a lot less requirements ( costs ) than an LRT vehicle with full grade separation able to go 55MPH inbetween stations.

These things are not so cut and clear from my transportation planning perspective. There are streetcar systems that move a lot faster than 8mph and there are LRT systems that don't have full grade separation, going 55mph in between stations. San Diego's is a good example. The initial line was built as a no-frills at-grade corridor. Today, LRT and streetcars operate on the same infrastructure. With that said, I do agree 100% with you on grade separation. Full grade separation makes a project really expensive, no matter what type of technology selected. However, I mentioned that already.

BTW, that ol' riverline project is  38% higher cost than what you cited.   The further one goes back, especially given the size of these project, the more important it is to factor in inflations.   In 2020 constant dollars it's more like $1.55B.

I don't have time to verify it being 38% higher. However, even taking your word, $1.55 billion is still $45.6 million per mile, which is significantly less than the $100 million per mile quote. At $46 million per mile, we could built an entire urban core system for less than we'd pay to incentivize Lot J.

Oceanside sprinter is a wonderful edge case.   They had an unusual case where an existing, lightly used freight railroad was willing to sell it's existing line.   They kept their costs down because they didn't have to build it from scratch.

They also kept down further by not front loading the project with requirements.  They didn't double track it.  They didn't electrify the line.  They kept it to a minimum.

I'd love to see transit do that sort of thing more.  But there aren't many corridors with lines like that.   And, much worse, the agencies are notorious for gold plating.

This proves my point. I said if you did a no-frills system, you could do something significantly less than building something with all the bells and whistles from scratch. There are more examples like this out there. I agree with the no-frills approach to transit, regardless of the technology. I hate the gold plating the agencies do. I believe this does these systems more harm than anything else.

[Peter Griffin]

"It's not my responsibility" and "I don't have the time to..." don't really match with your incessant desire to try and prove people wrong on the forum. If you've got the time to post and to make these big sprawling posts with pictures and multi-quotes of users, making a complete and compelling argument with accurate numbers, actual inflated project costs, etc. doesn't seem to be out of your reach.

[thelakelander]

I have yet to anyone in the industry claim the $100M / mile mark is not the standard for LRT.  Guadalajara just completed an LRT line.  Ottawa just opened a LRT line for $2+ billion and, IIRC, I'm not sure if it was much more than 5 or 6 miles.  Edmonton's new LRT line was a little longer and similar is overall cost.   Denver's token SE line extension was somehow ~$100M / mile.  The same with Phoenix's recent extension.

Charlotte's blue line was  billion and a quarter project for less than 10 miles.   Metro Transit is saying their planned 15 mile SW LRT line woudl cost $2 billion.  But that was before they recently said ooopsie, not quite done with the planning on that one.  We didn't take into account a crash wall and full cost of the tunnel.  Look for tht one to come in again ~$2.3B.   This isn't much different thn the billion they spent on their University Avenue line, 11 miles.   But what do you expect from an organization, Metro Transit, that they spent $130M for zero miles of LRT recently.  $130 and they got none.  Apparently no one could be bothered to make sure that  BNSF was on board before spending all that money.  Surely people knew that their proposal would only work w/ BNSF on board.

IIRC this was the previous one.  CityLab's sometimes got some good stuff like this
.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-26/the-u-s-gets-less-subway-for-its-money-than-its-peers

In the United States, most recent and in-progress light-rail lines cost more than $100 million per mile. Two light-rail extensions in Minneapolis, the Blue Line Extension and the Southwest LRT, cost $120 million and $130 million per mile, respectively. Dallas' Orange Line light rail, 14 miles long, cost somewhere between $1.3 billion and $1.8 billion. Portland's Orange Line cost about $200 million per mile. Houston's Green and Purple Lines together cost $1.3 billion for about 10 miles of light rail.

Most of the above are results of gold plating. It's pretty obvious that the Charlotte example (top picture) would be significantly higher to construct and maintain, compared to the original Houston and San Diego examples:


Charlotte LRT extension


Houston


Downtown San Diego

Moral of the story, at least from my perspective, is just because someone else decides to gold plate doesn't mean you have too. Gold plating should also not be used as the industry standard. Evaluate your own community on its own merits, goals and landscape, then select and develop a no-frills solution that helps achieve your long term vision.

[thelakelander]

"It's not my responsibility" and "I don't have the time to..." don't really match with your incessant desire to try and prove people wrong on the forum. If you've got the time to post and to make these big sprawling posts with pictures and multi-quotes of users, making a complete and compelling argument with accurate numbers, actual inflated project costs, etc. doesn't seem to be out of your reach.

I've provided enough to support my perspective. However, it's totally okay for you not to agree. Most likely, both of us will still sleep like babies tonight.

[marcuscnelson]

In this month's Making Moves, JTA finally admits that the Bay Street Innovation Corridor's revenue AV service has been pushed back to "no later than" 2025. Selection of which project group, Balfour Beatty or Haskell, will oversee the project is supposed to be finalized this summer, followed by 18-24 months of designing the system.

An aside, there's a 10-second clip in that same video (separated for your convenience) that displays the Avenues Walk Flyer station with commuter rail (represented by an EMD F59PHI with an undetermined number of Bombardier BiLevel Coaches) and autonomous vehicles. I'd like to imagine that the purpose of that is for perhaps shuttling people around Avenues Walk, which actually seems like a great usage for those if they work. It's a shame that instead they're trying to hamfist it into mass transit.

[thelakelander]

I saw that episode a few days ago. I know JTA claimed it was an example of TOD but I wouldn't call that apartment complex going up at Avenues Walk as being TOD. Perhaps TAD (Transit Adjacent Development) but I can't imagine a bus stop being there (or not being there) as a major factor in the property being feasible for a garden style autocentric multifamily development. Nothing about that apartment complex layout indicates that it is designed on that site to interact seamlessly with JTA's bus stop at the pedestrian scale. In any event, the Avenues Walk area would be a great location for a commuter or intercity rail stop though.

[marcuscnelson]

^ That could be where the AVs come in, again, assuming they work.

I don't remember what the current plans are for Avenues Walk at this point, did that suggest any degree of walkability? What about the apartment in Palm Beach they said this is based on?

[thelakelander]

I'll post the site plan later. I'll need to download it. In the meantime, here is what was originally proposed for this property.

https://www.metrojacksonville.com/article/2008-sep-the-evolution-of-avenues-walk

[bl8jaxnative]

Moral of the story, at least from my perspective, is just because someone else decides to gold plate doesn't mean you have too. Gold plating should also not be used as the industry standard. Evaluate your own community on its own merits, goals and landscape, then select and develop a no-frills solution that helps achieve your long term vision.

Maybe it's gold plating but there's a lot that has to be done to meet regulations.  One would need to sit down and sort that out.  For example, Metro Transit's new LRT project it's not obvious where the gold plating is coming into play.  About a 1/3 of the projects costs are coming from having to meet regulatory requirements stemming from choosing to share a very tight corridor with freight railroads.

I appauld that approach though.  Like I said some of those low cost projects you pointed to weren't LRT.    They made use of existing rail, didn't double track, etc.  Good for them.

At the end of the day though, modern LRT projects in the US are costing $100MM - $200MM / mile.   There's a lot of disagreement in the industry as to why that is.  More so on how bring those costs down.  It's probably going to be quite some time for we better understand why + actually start to fix it.

Maybe never.  Remember, 90+% of these agencies revenues come from government $$$$, not ridership.  It's not clear how they'd have a _deep_ desire to carry out those sort of reforms.

[thelakelander]

I appauld that approach though.  Like I said some of those low cost projects you pointed to weren't LRT.    They made use of existing rail, didn't double track, etc.  Good for them.

At the end of the day though, modern LRT projects in the US are costing $100MM - $200MM / mile.

I veer from traditional methods of placing these systems into boxes because there are ways to reduce costs when we don't box ourselves into believing a service can only be done one way and operate in such a manner. For Jax specifically, what we'll call "traditional LRT" that will run you upwards of $100 million, really makes no sense locally. We don't have the density or population requiring such a significant type of investment. We don't need anything requiring significant grade separation outside of getting over the FEC to tie in San Marco.

I believe there are more affordable options out there that will meet the needs of a community Jax's size for the foreseeable future. Anything rail-based other than a form of intercity rail (ex. Brightline, Amtrak Pacific Surfliner, etc. with only a stop or two in Jax) doesn't make sense outside of Jax's urban core (ex. preconsolidated city limits).

For something that is likely less than 10 miles in length, other options should be explored. The U2C thing doesn't make much sense from a capacity perspective, putting personal vehicle sized AVs on elevated Skyway infrastructure or the desire to mix them in with regular auto traffic. I do believe some success could be found with a streetcar service (modern-tramlike or even heritage) that runs in its own lanes/ROW, that also doesn't stop every other block. I also believe that we'd be better off with the Skyway by getting new peoplemover rolling stock and aggressively building up the density around existing stations, with limited no frills expansion (ex. like the Brooklyn Station) and eliminating all duplicate bus services as opposed to converting it into a lower capacity PRT system running in mixed traffic conditions.

[jaxlongtimer]

^ I see a possible nearer-future of autonomous vehicles, just not JTA's.  Rather, closer to today's cars/SUV's and shared, Uber-style.  With the right algorithms to manage travel, we could increase efficiencies enough to provide an ROI that works for less dense cities like Jax while catering to the cultural demand for point to point travel embedded here.

Aside from flexibility, scalability and lower initial capital outlays, this solution could also be implemented on a much faster timeline by using existing infrastructure.

Shared vehicles should also reduce the number of vehicles on the road, extending the capacity-life of said existing infrastructure.

[thelakelander]

^ I see a possible nearer-future of autonomous vehicles, just not JTA's.  Rather, closer to today's cars/SUV's and shared, Uber-style.  With the right algorithms to manage travel, we could increase efficiencies enough to provide an ROI that works for less dense cities like Jax while catering to the cultural demand for point to point travel embedded here.

Without investing billions in roadway infrastructure, signals, etc., you won't see this on a large scale. You'll likely see AVs that are still human operator controlled.....some of which is already out there. From a transit perspective, I still struggle to see what JTA is proposing, going mainstream. Restricting an AV the size of an SUV to fixed Skyway infrastructure and stops will only put that system at a competitive disadvantage against ride share. For it to be effective as mass transit, we'll need bigger vehicles. However, that's not necessarily a technology issue.

Aside from flexibility, scalability and lower initial capital outlays, this solution could also be implemented on a much faster timeline by using existing infrastructure.

AV technology aside, what type of capacity vehicles /rolling stock are you talking about?

Shared vehicles should also reduce the number of vehicles on the road, extending the capacity-life of said existing infrastructure.

I wouldn't count on this, at this point. Any true reduction vehicles on the road will happen later down the line. The technology has to become common amongst the general population or somewhat regulated by the government before that day comes.

[Charles Hunter]

I have seen some articles (that I can't find right now) that predict that widespread use of AVs could increase vehicle miles traveled.  There are two scenarios. First, if you own your AV, and are going to work at an office, you (it) would drive to the door of your office and you would get out and walk into your office. The AV would then go park itself. Since the site design would not have to accommodate you walking from your parked car to the office, the AV parking could be farther away.  When you get ready to go home, you would summon your AV as you leave your desk, meeting it in front of your office. Here, the distance between your office door and the AV parking is "added miles" not currently driven.  Now, the AV parking area may or may not require driving on public roads, but it will drive on some pavement that has to be maintained.

If you don't own the AV, and it has to come from some parking area, or off of another trip, before it picks you up in the morning or evening, these are even more "new" miles on the road.

[thelakelander]

^ That could be where the AVs come in, again, assuming they work.

I don't remember what the current plans are for Avenues Walk at this point, did that suggest any degree of walkability? What about the apartment in Palm Beach they said this is based on?

Here's the Bainbridge apartment development across from Walmart in Avenues Walk that JTA claims to be TOD.











This is a carbon copy of recently built apartment complexes that have been constructed all over the Southside. While having a bus stop within walking distance of the entrance to the long winding complex access drive is an amenity, that's not the driver of this project anymore than the railroad being a significant draw for Walmart to locate at Avenues Walk.