Khan, Jaguars expect Lot J development to begin early 2020

[thelakelander]

Khan doesn't have a vision for DT Jax either. He has a conceptual dream of what they'd like to see around the stadium. No matter what's spent over there, COJ/DIA will still need a vision for downtown. IMO, they should have an open discussion of what it will take to keep the Jags here long term and drop their vision of the Stadium District into what's planned for downtown as a whole. The same goes with LaVilla and the Cathedral District, both of which have had independent visions/master plans developed in recent years. How does all of this stuff go together, how much will it cost, what is the implementation plan, etc? Throw JTA's AV dream into the vision planning effort as well. We may very well find up that these things don't match up and that some overall modifications will need to be made before blowing hundreds of millions more in public money. Until we're able to do that and stick to that plan, we'll continue to struggle no matter how much money is given to the Jag's.

[Ken_FSU]

Really great points above, but I think the biggest point that people are missing with this new stadium story is this:

Whether we're 15-1 or 1-15, the Jags are not sustainable long-term in Jacksonville if the only investment we make as a city is in stadium upgrades. Locals take this fact really, really personally, but it's rooted in economic reality. Whether we do the stadium now or later, the other asks are not only going to come, but will need to be publicly subsidized if we wish to remain an NFL franchise.

Viability and sustainability are not terms reflective of how passionate our fanbase is.

Instead, they're reflective of our market size (30th in the NFL), our per capita income (30th in the NFL), and our local economy (29th in local GDP). We're growing as a city, but so are all of the other NFL markets as well (we're 28th in income growth, for example).

When you've got a smaller population base, you can overcome that with a larger local economy, or a larger per capita income.

When you've got a smaller per capital income, you can overcome that with a larger population base.

But when you've got one of the smallest markets, with one of the lowest per capita incomes, and one of the lowest GDPs (and subsequently, smallest corporate presence), there's only so much you can squeeze out of those 8 home games a season. You have to get creative with local revenue beyond those 8 game days to make Jacksonville work as an NFL market.

The Jags need things like the London game (up to 1.8x the ticket revenue of a Jacksonville), Daily's Place, and developments like those proposed at Lot J and the Shipyards to compensate for all of these previously noted market disadvantages, to be able to field a competitive team, and to be able to held accountable by the rest of the NFL franchises that make up the league's revenue share pool (which is why NFL owners need to approve lease extensions).

The salary cap keeps rising and rising, and Jags ticket prices haven't even kept up with inflation over the last 20 years because our market can't bear it. Yes, we've had some really shitty years, but sustainable professional sports markets need to be able to bear good stretches and bad.

It's not greed, it's not personal against the Jacksonville market, it's pure numbers on a balance sheet.

And another reason why all of this should be negotiated as a package.

A new stadium is no good to Jags without the additional revenue sources like Lot J and the Shipyards. And Lot J and the Shipyards are far less useful to the public without the new stadium.

It just genuinely bothers me though how heated and antagonistic this has all become on every level. The Jags need to be more humble, but if people out there were paying attention and really educating themselves about NFL economics, or even watching the Jags State of the Franchise events since Shad Khan bought the team where Lamping has been incredibly transparent about all of this, the conversation would be framed much better.

Do we want to throw all our eggs in one basket to make the necessary investments to help the Jags overcome our market disadvantages, or has the price tag just gotten too high?

Versus:

Greedy billionaire wants to extort passionate fanbase.

Ain't that simple.

[Ken_FSU]

P.S. Public meeting just started.

https://jaxcityc.granicus.com/player/event/1428?view_id=1&redirect=true

[marcuscnelson]

I hear DeFoor opposing the Cumber proposal and supporting Carlucci's because there are "still things that need to be addressed and negotiated." Carlucci also said he might not vote for the bill as-is, and we need to start over, but not necessarily from the beginning. As mad as Lamping was about it, it sounds like unless something changes we might be due for more substantial changes. In which case, someone should be bold enough to propose a referendum. Maybe I'll hop into public comment for the later meeting and bring it up.

[jaxlongtimer]

Really great points above, but I think the biggest point that people are missing with this new stadium story is this:

Whether we're 15-1 or 1-15, the Jags are not sustainable long-term in Jacksonville if the only investment we make as a city is in stadium upgrades. Locals take this fact really, really personally, but it's rooted in economic reality. Whether we do the stadium now or later, the other asks are not only going to come, but will need to be publicly subsidized if we wish to remain an NFL franchise.

There is no question many in Jax wanted the sex appeal of an NFL franchise for a long time.  I think the question comes down to how many understood your last comment, that we need to publicly subsidize the team ad nauseam.  When the NFL picked Jax, they clearly understood our demographics and felt we passed the smell test in awarding us the franchise.  Further, the value of the team has increased some 10 to 15 times over what Weaver originally paid for the franchise so something must be going right for the Jags on the financial side.

I believe there is a fairness issue here.  Is it fair to burden all the taxpayers in Jax with the cost of having the Jags here when many residents didn't ask for this and do not prioritize spending taxpayer dollars on the Jags given so many other pressing needs not being addressed?  At what point is a line in the sand drawn.  As many have noted, $233 million (about $233 for every man, woman and child in the City) would go a long way invested in other ways in Jax and likely with a much greater ROI.

I also note that Jax already had a higher-than-average growth rate (this may have helped seduce the NFL originally) before the Jags came and that many believed the Jags would have actually been far more transformational for the City than what we have seen.   Downtown is a bigger bust now than ever and the rest of the City is not an exceptional standout when compared with other Sun Belt cities.  As noted countless times, magic bullets here don't produce well due to our consistently poor civic leadership that has no cohesive plan for managing the City.  It's just one chaotic fire drill after another.

I would feel better about these deals if we actually had our act together and had competent people negotiating in the best interests of the taxpayers.  But the City's track record of making one bad deal after another and with no clear vision, as Lake aptly speaks to, doesn't inspire confidence.  In this case, not only does the project seem intuitively risky from a financial standpoint but its physical separation from the core of a dead Downtown makes no sense.  Without Khan, no thinking person would be prioritizing "Downtown" development around the stadium when so much remains to be done in the CBD.  It's "united we stand, divided we fall" bad planning.

As a lifelong Jax resident and lover, it is sad to see so many opportunities squandered by a City with God-given attributes most any City in the world would envy.

[Ken_FSU]

I hear DeFoor opposing the Cumber proposal and supporting Carlucci's because there are "still things that need to be addressed and negotiated." Carlucci also said he might not vote for the bill as-is, and we need to start over, but not necessarily from the beginning. As mad as Lamping was about it, it sounds like unless something changes we might be due for more substantial changes. In which case, someone should be bold enough to propose a referendum. Maybe I'll hop into public comment for the later meeting and bring it up.

If I was a betting man, I'd put all on my chips on the Cumber amendment passing.

Seems like the best compromise between rocking the boat with the Jags and rocking the boat with the taxpayers.

Lori Boyer is clearly trying to steer in the Cumber direction as well without appearing too outwardly to be steering in that direction.

And it's funny, it was hard to hear, but I actually thought Carluccli said the opposite ("I've voted for all the Jags bills in the past, and I'd probably vote for this one too.")

Will need to re-listen.

[Ken_FSU]

As a lifelong Jax resident and lover, it is sad to see so many opportunities squandered by a City with God-given attributes most any City in the world would envy.

This is the saddest part to me.

A lot of effort has gone into sabotaging what should have been an easy layup over the last 25 years.

[WarDamJagFan]

As a lifelong Jax resident and lover, it is sad to see so many opportunities squandered by a City with God-given attributes most any City in the world would envy.

This is the saddest part to me.

A lot of effort has gone into sabotaging what should have been an easy layup over the last 25 years.

I second this. Born/raised here and have lived most of my 34 years in Jax.  For all its faults, I still believe it's a great place to live. Hence my hesitancy to believe any city-run master plan would ever accomplish its goal. We've been trying Core growth for an eternity. So again, why not try a completely different approach and work with Shad? Just my own opinion obviously.

[minder]

Not only is Jacksonville a "small market", but when compared with many other small NFL markets, our regional appeal is very small. New Orleans for instance have fans all over the Gulf South. Buffalo have fans all over Western New York and Southern Ontario. The Chiefs have fans all over the Plains. The Raiders are a West Coast brand and the Packers and Colts have a full state to themselves. I wouldn't be surprised if the Jags are not even the most popular team in Gainesville or Daytona.

[acme54321]

Not only is Jacksonville a "small market", but when compared with many other small NFL markets, our regional appeal is very small. New Orleans for instance have fans all over the Gulf South. Buffalo have fans all over Western New York and Southern Ontario. The Chiefs have fans all over the Plains. The Raiders are a West Coast brand and the Packers and Colts have a full state to themselves. I wouldn't be surprised if the Jags are not even the most popular team in Gainesville or Daytona.

The most popular team between Gainesville and Daytona is in Gainesville LOL.

The Jags would be a lot more popular if they weren't a dumpster fire year after year.

[marcuscnelson]

At the council meeting now. Lamping has proposed changes. This was all I could see over Zoom:

[Ken_FSU]

^Phase II of Lot J would be predicated on Cordish and the Jags finding a major office tenant.

Cordish has said they wouldn't do it speculatively.

If Lot J is up to 10 years out, you've gotta think it'd be another five years on top of that before Phase II is potentially a thing.

Speaking of office tenants, and Lot J, and the 33-month minimum for environmental remediation at the Lot J site, it's interesting to note that when Cordish and the Jags pitched Lot J to the JEA for their new headquarters, they gave an estimated timeline of 12.5 months from award to vertical construction.

https://www.jea.com/About/Lot_J_Best_and_Final_Offer/

Either the mayor's confused, or those soil and groundwater samples the Jags took about a year back came back way, way worse than expected.

So, the Jags expect actual remediation to take between 9-12 months.

The x-factor, and the reasons for the 33-month window in the development agreement, is that state approvals will be needed once the remediation is done, and no one is quite sure how long that will take.

[marcuscnelson]

Oh my God.

I think Paul Harden just said that there's no financial obligation to exit the lease, as it stands.

Even Rory Diamond looked shocked to hear that.

Lamping came back to say that of course Khan is totally committed, he's invested in the past, the Weavers sold based on that, but... yikes.

[Steve]

Oh my God.

I think Paul Harden just said that there's no financial obligation to exit the lease, as it stands.

Even Rory Diamond looked shocked to hear that.

Lamping came back to say that of course Khan is totally committed, he's invested in the past, the Weavers sold based on that, but... yikes.

I think COJ should check that. I don't think that's true.

What I do know is true: if they want to exit early, there are some financial metrics they have to prove. This would require them to open the books. They aren't doing that unless the team is in dire straits.

[Ken_FSU]

^The public reaction to this is going to be: "OMG! There's nothing stopping the Jags from leaving."

A more measured reaction would be: "There's been nothing legally keeping the Jags in Jacksonville for over a decade, and Shad Khan has not only not moved the team, but he's proposing a huge investment in the sports complex and stadium. He must have been telling Wayne Weaver the truth when he promised to keep the team in Jacksonville."