Jaguars State of the Franchise 2018

[KenFSU]

^Like I mentioned in the other thread, if I was betting my life savings, I'd put every penny on Lot J.

Pre-Lot J plan from the Jaguars, JEA had every intention to build a new headquarters themselves in the CBD via land swap with the city.

Post Lot J announcement, that plan went out the window.

JEA's new timeline for selecting a headquarters site perfectly coincides with the Jaguars timeline for finalizing their economic development agreement with the city, and the new RFP that JEA put out completely abandons the long-held plan to build and own the headquarters themselves, instead requesting a long-term lease with options for up to 30 years.

Throw in the fact that the Jags CFO sits on the board at JEA, and I think it's pretty clear which way the wind is blowing here.

[Kerry]

Well clearly having the Wimbly deal fall through is a huge setback for the Jags and Jax.  We were told multiple times that the Wimbly deal was the only thing keeping the Jags in Jax.

[Steve]

We were told multiple times that the Wimbly deal was the only thing keeping the Jags in Jax.

We were? Can you provide a single quote of this?

Now, what I heard (and was published by Khan two days ago) was that London was critically important to the Jaguars financial success in Jacksonville (and the Jaguars evidence to this fact is fairly strong). London isn't the same thing as buying Wembley.

[Non-RedNeck Westsider]

We were told multiple times that the Wimbly deal was the only thing keeping the Jags in Jax.

We were? Can you provide a single quote of this?

Now, what I heard (and was published by Khan two days ago) was that London was critically important to the Jaguars financial success in Jacksonville (and the Jaguars evidence to this fact is fairly strong). London isn't the same thing as buying Wembley.

I think a lot people aren't quite getting that part of it.  We're still committed to playing at least one home game in London until 2020.  I posted this in a Jag group earlier and here's where I'm at with it:

Even though Khan bailed on Wembley, I don't see this dying down anytime soon. Sorry about the long-ish read, but I'd like to throw my opinion out there to give you guys/gals something to think about.

The media is grasping for low-hanging fruit as always and to write a story that ties the Jags moving to London doesn't take any brain power at all. It's something most 11th graders can do.

Here, let me shed some light for you:

There are 2 stadiums in England right now.
There is a lot of interest in Germany - right now.
The only way to truly make it work overseas is to have multiple teams at home.
The NFL and the NFLPA don't go to the table until 2020.
The NFL wants to expand - not relocate.

If anyone wants a team in London, they would make exponentially more money by creating a startup rather than relocating. Assume an initial $1B to startup, and once they become part of the league in London - team value automatically jumps to ~$5B-7B.

What Khan is trying to do is get ahead of the curve and own one of the two stadiums. I truly think his ultimate goal would be just what you've read - base the Jags out of Jax and have a 2-game homestand in London.

That accomplishes 2 things: 1. If the numbers stay the same, he makes upwards of 30-35% of the yearly revenue on just 2 games. 2. By having fewer games here, the demand 'should' go up, therefore increasing the revenue made at home also.

And this is based on a 16 games season. I believe if we were to have another expansion of teams, then 18 games is absolutely on the table. And more games in 'his' stadium means more money for 'our' team.

If he can't keep the Jags there as the psuedo "Home" team, then he will lease it out to whomever plays there. Just like Kronke. Just like Mara.

IMO, best case, things stay the same, we have our home game overseas and play an 'away' there, too in Tottenham in back to back weeks. Worst case is that the team splits 5-5 and has a US schedule coupled with a Euro schedule. Either way, for no other reason than taxes (we're talking hundreds of millions per year between ownership and players and staff, etc...), Khan will keep the Jags in Jax for the foreseeable future.

[Tacachale]

We were told multiple times that the Wimbly deal was the only thing keeping the Jags in Jax.

We were? Can you provide a single quote of this?

Now, what I heard (and was published by Khan two days ago) was that London was critically important to the Jaguars financial success in Jacksonville (and the Jaguars evidence to this fact is fairly strong). London isn't the same thing as buying Wembley.

You are correct that literally no one was saying that Wembley was the only thing keeping the Jags here. However the idea that the Jags would not be "financially successful" if not for London is crap. All NFL teams print their own money at this point, and the city has always been willing to work with the team on the improvements they want.

[dp8541]

Unfortunately the issue is not that Kahn is losing money by owning the Jags (he is not), it is that he wants his NFL franchise to be as profitable as possible.  He sees the revenue coming into these teams with new stadiums and larger markets and wants his franchise to be on pace.  That is not doable for him in Jax without the additional revenue the franchise sees from playing a game in London each year. 

The Wembly deal would have basically guaranteed at least one, probably more, Jag games in London for the foreseeable future.   Now that the deal fell through, we are only guaranteed I think three more home games in London (I think through 2020).  That does not mean that he cannot negotiate another deal with the NFL to extend our London games, but that is going to be more difficult this time around now that other franchises are seeing the financial benefit to playing games in London.

The recent comments from Lamping stressing the importance of the Lot J development now sounds more and more like an ultimatum to the city each time I hear it.  Obviously the Jags do not need lot J developed to be profitable, but they feel they need it to maximize their profitability. 

[Tacachale]

Unfortunately the issue is not that Kahn is losing money by owning the Jags (he is not), it is that he wants his NFL franchise to be as profitable as possible.  He sees the revenue coming into these teams with new stadiums and larger markets and wants his franchise to be on pace.  That is not doable for him in Jax without the additional revenue the franchise sees from playing a game in London each year. 

I don't buy that. London is a one-off opportunity. The Jags have been successful in seizing it, but if it never came up, the Jags would still be extremely profitable.

The Wembly deal would have basically guaranteed at least one, probably more, Jag games in London for the foreseeable future.   Now that the deal fell through, we are only guaranteed I think three more home games in London (I think through 2020).  That does not mean that he cannot negotiate another deal with the NFL to extend our London games, but that is going to be more difficult this time around now that other franchises are seeing the financial benefit to playing games in London.

The recent comments from Lamping stressing the importance of the Lot J development now sounds more and more like an ultimatum to the city each time I hear it.  Obviously the Jags do not need lot J developed to be profitable, but they feel they need it to maximize their profitability.

This would seem to be the case.

[Kerry]

https://www.jaguars.com/news/mark-lamping-on-wembley-jacksonville-drives-the-jaguars-20584844

"For the Jaguars, it would deliver another – and very significant – asset and local revenue source that would further strengthen our investment in London, which as everyone knows is crucial to the Jaguars' continued sustainability in Jacksonville," Khan said in a statement.


Now what happens?

[Steve]

We were told multiple times that the Wimbly deal was the only thing keeping the Jags in Jax.

We were? Can you provide a single quote of this?

Now, what I heard (and was published by Khan two days ago) was that London was critically important to the Jaguars financial success in Jacksonville (and the Jaguars evidence to this fact is fairly strong). London isn't the same thing as buying Wembley.

You are correct that literally no one was saying that Wembley was the only thing keeping the Jags here. However the idea that the Jags would not be "financially successful" if not for London is crap. All NFL teams print their own money at this point, and the city has always been willing to work with the team on the improvements they want.

I agree with you that yes, he Jaguars would likely be profitable without London. With that said, it's never good to be at the bottom of the NFL's revenue pool. The NFL's economic model is basically Socialism, with revenue sharing on almost everything (premium seats and local sponsorships are the main exceptions). If the Jaguars are near the bottom of the league in one of the smallest markets, that isn't an ideal in the Billionaire Boys club.

Should we just give Khan whatever he wants? No. But, Jacksonville is going to have to overachieve somehow to try to close the gap.

[Steve]

https://www.jaguars.com/news/mark-lamping-on-wembley-jacksonville-drives-the-jaguars-20584844

"For the Jaguars, it would deliver another – and very significant – asset and local revenue source that would further strengthen our investment in London, which as everyone knows is crucial to the Jaguars' continued sustainability in Jacksonville," Khan said in a statement.


Now what happens?

You're missing something. Just because he withdrew his offer to play at Wembley doesn't mean that the team can't play in London. They've played in London for a while now without owning the team.

[MusicMan]

"............ whether the Jags want a new stadium................"


How about a few winning seasons IN A ROW first.

(Will they take the scoreboards with them?)

[Adam White]

The NFL's economic model is basically Socialism, with revenue sharing on almost everything (premium seats and local sponsorships are the main exceptions).

Tell that to the workers - the players. Revenue sharing by capitalists isn't even remotely socialism.

[KenFSU]

"............ whether the Jags want a new stadium................"


How about a few winning seasons IN A ROW first.

(Will they take the scoreboards with them?)

If you watch the clip, a reporter asked the new stadium question, and Lamping gave a really good answer to the question about why a new stadium doesn't really make sense for the market.

[Steve]

The NFL's economic model is basically Socialism, with revenue sharing on almost everything (premium seats and local sponsorships are the main exceptions).

Tell that to the workers - the players. Revenue sharing by capitalists isn't even remotely socialism.

If you study the economic revenue sharing by the 32 owners, it is. Not talking about the players cut.

[JaxAvondale]

We were told multiple times that the Wimbly deal was the only thing keeping the Jags in Jax.

We were? Can you provide a single quote of this?

Now, what I heard (and was published by Khan two days ago) was that London was critically important to the Jaguars financial success in Jacksonville (and the Jaguars evidence to this fact is fairly strong). London isn't the same thing as buying Wembley.

I think a lot people aren't quite getting that part of it.  We're still committed to playing at least one home game in London until 2020.  I posted this in a Jag group earlier and here's where I'm at with it:

Even though Khan bailed on Wembley, I don't see this dying down anytime soon. Sorry about the long-ish read, but I'd like to throw my opinion out there to give you guys/gals something to think about.

The media is grasping for low-hanging fruit as always and to write a story that ties the Jags moving to London doesn't take any brain power at all. It's something most 11th graders can do.

Here, let me shed some light for you:

There are 2 stadiums in England right now.
There is a lot of interest in Germany - right now.
The only way to truly make it work overseas is to have multiple teams at home.
The NFL and the NFLPA don't go to the table until 2020.
The NFL wants to expand - not relocate.

If anyone wants a team in London, they would make exponentially more money by creating a startup rather than relocating. Assume an initial $1B to startup, and once they become part of the league in London - team value automatically jumps to ~$5B-7B.

What Khan is trying to do is get ahead of the curve and own one of the two stadiums. I truly think his ultimate goal would be just what you've read - base the Jags out of Jax and have a 2-game homestand in London.

That accomplishes 2 things: 1. If the numbers stay the same, he makes upwards of 30-35% of the yearly revenue on just 2 games. 2. By having fewer games here, the demand 'should' go up, therefore increasing the revenue made at home also.

And this is based on a 16 games season. I believe if we were to have another expansion of teams, then 18 games is absolutely on the table. And more games in 'his' stadium means more money for 'our' team.

If he can't keep the Jags there as the psuedo "Home" team, then he will lease it out to whomever plays there. Just like Kronke. Just like Mara.

IMO, best case, things stay the same, we have our home game overseas and play an 'away' there, too in Tottenham in back to back weeks. Worst case is that the team splits 5-5 and has a US schedule coupled with a Euro schedule. Either way, for no other reason than taxes (we're talking hundreds of millions per year between ownership and players and staff, etc...), Khan will keep the Jags in Jax for the foreseeable future.

I don't think that the schedule will increase to 18 games anytime soon. The owners would have to make a lot of other concessions in the next CBA.

I agree that the next step for the Jags/NFL is to have them play in back to back weeks in London. I think that it is likely in 2019 with the Jags scheduled to play the AFC West. Both the Raiders and Chargers are in temporary homes. So, I assume that they would be fine giving up a home game.

Until Khan and Spurs Chairman workout their issues, the easiest solution is for the Jags to play a pre-season game in London against one of the other teams that are giving up a home game. Khan in return should send Fulham on a US Tour over here for a pre-season matches at TIAA. An EPL team on pre-season tour would generate much more revenue for the city than a pre-season game.