Five-Year Predictions

[Captain Zissou]

#17. Cranes will be in the air in 2019.  Might be completed by 2021.

You're funny

[downtownbrown]

We shall see, Skipper, but the hard part is over. Lawsuits settled. Investors in place. Just need another round of CC approval.

Wager: If the bar is open by the end of 2021, you owe me a drink.

[Bill Hoff]

Let's play a fun game. Pick which of the following oft-discussed/long-delayed/upcoming projects you expect to be completed by this time 2021. I've set a calendar reminder to revive this thread in five years. Winner gets a special prize.

JTA Regional Transportation Center
The District
Shipyards Remediation
Barnett Bank Building
Laura Street Trio
Metro Park Redevelopment (Existing)
Replacement Metro Park
Cowford Chophouse
Hemming Park Restoration/redesign
San Marco Condos/Publix
Old Courthouse Rebuild/Renovate
Skyway Extension
Downtown Aquarium
USS Adams Mooring/Museum
Landing Redesign
AAF Connection
Berkman II

Bump.

Just 363 days until 2021!

[acme54321]

Lol.  The courthouse and Landing got "redone."

[thelakelander]

Wow these will be rough. 2021 is right around the corner. Anything significant that isn't already under construction won't be complete by the end of the year.

[thelakelander]

Well I'm faring better than KenFSU so far. But me having a lot of corrects are a bad thing since I felt most of what has been talked about for years would not materialize by 2021.

1. Correct so far but office building will be complete this year.
2. Correct so far but not confident we'll see anything more than infrastructure.
3. Correct so far
4. Correct
5. Correct, construction hasn't started, so there's no way it will be complete in 2021.
6. Correct in that Khan did get it. Likely wrong about anything being under construction before 2021.
7. Correct amphitheater did get done. Nothing else will.
8. Correct
9. Correct, there's no money budgeted, nothing will happen by 2021.
10. Correct so far but on eggshells. They need to break ground soon.
11. Correct
12. Correct but no station in Brooklyn is happening by 2021 either.
13. Correct
14. Correct
15. Wrong. I expected it to limp along, not be demolished with nothing to replace it.
16. Wrong. Orlando won't open until 2022.
17. Correct

[Kerry]

Dang, wish I had seen this post 5 years ago.

[Adam White]

Dang, wish I had seen this post 5 years ago.

If you did, you'd have been massively clairvoyant, since the post is just over three years old!

[Kerry]

Dang, wish I had seen this post 5 years ago.

If you did, you'd have been massively clairvoyant, since the post is just over three years old!

It doesn't matter - predicting that nothing gets done in Jax is easy.  You don't need to be clairvoyant, you just have to know Jax and be a realist.  This year some "game changer" project will be announced and in 2024 it still won't be started.

If items on this list haven't started yet they never will.  What are they waiting on? A good economy?  Low interest rates?  Low unemployment?  Job growth?  Wage increases?  A rising stock market?  Let's face it, times aren't going to get any better than the last 3 years.

[Jason]

Well I'm faring better than KenFSU so far. But me having a lot of corrects are a bad thing since I felt most of what has been talked about for years would not materialize by 2021.

1. Correct so far but office building will be complete this year.
2. Correct so far but not confident we'll see anything more than infrastructure.
3. Correct so far
4. Correct
5. Correct, construction hasn't started, so there's no way it will be complete in 2021.
6. Correct in that Khan did get it. Likely wrong about anything being under construction before 2021.
7. Correct amphitheater did get done. Nothing else will.
8. Correct
9. Correct, there's no money budgeted, nothing will happen by 2021.
10. Correct so far but on eggshells. They need to break ground soon.
11. Correct
12. Correct but no station in Brooklyn is happening by 2021 either.
13. Correct
14. Correct
15. Wrong. I expected it to limp along, not be demolished with nothing to replace it.
16. Wrong. Orlando won't open until 2022.
17. Correct

Looks like there is still some movement on the Brooklyn Skyway Station.  It'll just be a simple platform and awning.  My guess is that it will be hitting the streets for pricing this quarter.

[acme54321]

Looks like there is still some movement on the Brooklyn Skyway Station.  It'll just be a simple platform and awning.  My guess is that it will be hitting the streets for pricing this quarter.

Where at? Seems to me like it will have to be substantially more than that to get a stop in Brooklyn since all of the tracks dead end at the maintenance yard .

[Jason]

Looks like there is still some movement on the Brooklyn Skyway Station.  It'll just be a simple platform and awning.  My guess is that it will be hitting the streets for pricing this quarter.

Where at? Seems to me like it will have to be substantially more than that to get a stop in Brooklyn since all of the tracks dead end at the maintenance yard .

That is exactly where the station will sit, right at the dead-end of the tracks.

[Ken_FSU]

Call me an optimist, but I'm with Stephen. The momentum is starting to pick up. Our local economy is strong, with more jobs coming. Barring a complete economic meltdown, I think the market is going to do its job in the next five years, to the point that it might actually be more difficult for the city to screw things up than it will be to let them happen. And a few of these projects have the potential to cause pretty significant domino effects if they fall into place.

JTA Regional Transportation Center -- Project complete. Federal, state and JTA funding is already allocated for the project, with final design less than three months out. I bet it breaks ground by spring.

The District -- Phase 1 complete, minus the hotel, with parts of Phase 2 under construction.

Metro Park Redevelopment (Existing) -- Yes for Phase 1, via a partial land swap for Shipyards property. We'll see a hotel, entertainment/retail, and the USS Adams occupying Metro Park by the end of the decade.

Shipyards Remediation -- Yes. Khan moves fast. I anticipate talk of Metro Park redevelopment ramping up fast next year around the time of the Jags State of the Franchise presentation. As a city, we're sitting on $17 million to remediate the site, and have made no efforts to do so, citing a lack of development plan for the land. My guess is that there's already a handshake agreement in place between the city and Khan for the Metro Park land swap. I can't see the Feds being happy with such a swap unless remediation is a real thing, which should fast track its start. Khan develops Metro Park, a portion of the Shipyards is designated as public parkspace, and appropriate remediation is under way no later than January 2018.

Replacement Metro Park -- Yes. On the Shipyards property. Though likely bare-bones at first, to check a box on the land swap agreement.

Barnett Bank Building -- Yes. This might just be wishful thinking, but Jim Woodcock spoke rather positively about the building being in the right hands with Shad Khan and his finding the right use for the building. I don't think you make a statement like that if your intent is to flip it quickly to the highest bidder. Khan has made $1 billion dollars in pure profit by owning our NFL team. And, as of today, the team is still the shits. I could see him taking this on as a goodwill project. It's a stunning building that he loved from the first time he saw it. Super wishful thinking would be that the project was a massive success, and he caught a bit of the Dan Gilbert bug. 

Laura Street Trio -- Yes. With the pension issue kicked down the road, Curry has promised to beef up capital improvement spending as early as next year. And I think Curry, the City Council, and our citizenry as a whole recognize that this is a make or break project for the downtown core. Though I couldn't see Khan asking for city incentives to redevelop the Barnett, I could see him putting pressure on the city to make the Trio happen as a condition of restoring the Barnett. Even with the contentious relationship with the Adkins group, he's a smart businessman, and these two projects can only help each other.

Cowford Chophouse -- Yes. Though I do fear this project may be two or three years too early, I think they'll be ok.

Hemming Park Restoration/redesign -- No. I could see a cheap redesign, though maybe not in a good way. I worry about this one. To me, it's one of the most important projects on the list, and I think a public/private partnership is by far the best way to go. That said, I question what competent, sane entity is going to want to run Hemming after the debacle with FHP.

San Marco Condos/Publix -- Yes, with loads of positive externalities on San Marco.

Old Courthouse Rebuild/Renovate -- No. Demolished.

Skyway Extension -- Yes, into Brooklyn via the operations center. With one additional extension underway.

Downtown Aquarium -- No. But I do think it happens within ten years.

USS Adams Mooring/Museum -- Yes. As a featured part of the Jags' Metro Park development.

Landing Redesign -- No, but the remaining retail will shrink away, the food hall/market concept will gain steam and the existing Landing will be a more vibrant place.

AAF Connection --No.

Berkman II -- Demolished.

Nailed it 

[JaxAvondale]

10 months left....

[jaxlongtimer]

Looks like if you answered "no" to all of them, you were guaranteed at least a "B+."

What's interesting is that Lot J, the Hart Bridge Ramps and the Four Seasons were not even on the radar in 2016.  In less than 5 years, from nowhere, they jumped over most of this entire list.  LOL.

Here is one for you:  How many of these will be done in the next 5 years?  The safe bet again, is probably to answer "no" across the board.  If we get a new mayor, that might change the odds a bit.  Of course, they won't have any money left to promote these projects after Curry hands the keys to the bank (yep, that's a play on the stadium's nickname) to Khan. 

Yet, hope springs eternal.