Jacksonville housing prices make the national media (for the wrong reason)

[cityimrov]

If the JTA would provide it's customers a way to know arrival times, there would be a dramatic increase in ridership. 

do you have any data to prove this point?

I ask because most cities that have implemented this type of technology have seen less than a 10% increase....which, in most cases, matches the ridership increases of systems generally over the last 5 years (implying the technology had minial effect on its own).

A increase but not a dramatic one (comparing routes that with tracking and routes without, in the same system)

http://m.theatlanticcities.com/commute/2012/03/do-real-time-updates-increase-transit-ridership/1413/

Wrong question.  The correct question to ask is "Does mass transit tracking technology increase productivity for the riders?" 

Instead of waiting two hours waiting for a bus (not likely but supposing I was forced to), I would rather spent those two hours working on emails or spend that extra time shopping.  This increases the economy and indirectly raises tax revenue.  If we have people sitting around for two hours doing nothing but waiting on a bus, then we really are one of the most unproductive city in the nation.  They aren't working.  They aren't spending.  All they are doing is waiting on a bus! 


As for what's the problem, these numbers speak for themselves:

Jacksonville, Fl.
Median listing price: $184,775
Median sales price: $121,600
Difference: -34%

VS

Boston
Median listing price: $319,000
Median sales price: $325,000
Percent difference: +2%

As for Tampa (Median sales price: $135,500).  I expect them to be in better shape than Jacksonville 10 years from now because they are realistic in their expectations.

[Dashing Dan]

But I bet the shopping is way better in Chicago.

I am happier going to the dentist, so going shopping does not influence my choice of cities.

[simms3]

I have heard that while 2 years ago supply was off the charts and demand was lacking, nowadays most of that supply has moved and there is a "6 month" supply in the market, which is normal for growth cities, maybe not even enough if Jacksonville were to be in the 2-3% annual growth range again.

So you're saying Jacksonville's population is increasing at a rate that will fill all vacant homes & condos in six months?  That doesn't seem right...

What I'm saying is that Realtor world is saying that factoring in population growth, new construction, investors and 2nd home sales, immigration and emigration, etc there is a much "healthier" supply than there was.  I have heard 6 months tossed around, down from something like above 20 months.  Maybe it's 10 months, doesn't matter, the supply is much much lower than it was.  This is new construction only, I believe.

Besides, do the math yourself - if Jacksonville is growing at 10,000 per year and homeownership rate is 70% and average household size is 2.5, that would equate to a roughly 1,400 inventory supply of new homes unsold in Jacksonville.  Maybe that doesn't sound right and maybe my math is wrong, I don't know.  I'm not a Realtor, I just hear what they say.

Remember, new construction has literally completely stopped in Jacksonville for a few years now, but the city has not stopped growing.

[simms3]

So basically what your saying is all the rich people who live in Jacksonville are either becoming poor or are fleeing the city in droves?   

Many of the wealthy are not so wealthy anymore (and many lived on credit), and many have moved from in town to the beach.  Drive the riverfront neighborhoods - they aren't as kept up as they were just 4 years ago and it's not like someone living in a $4M home can't afford landscaping, but you'd be surprised to know that many have eliminated extra expenses such as landscaping.  Many many many people have moved out of town to the beach.  A lot of people who aren't from Jacksonville and who have money are turned off by the "old guard" in the older neighborhoods, and besides why spend millions on a home when across the street or a block away are very shoddy $100K homes and strip clubs and sleazy places lining the boulevards (namely Roosevelt, San Juan, Timucuana, etc).

Things have changed in Jacksonville, and people have lost money and people who still have money have taken advantage of cutrate prices for homes in Atlantic Beach, South Jacksonville Beach and Ponte Vedra Beach.

1st time homebuyers are buying like crazy in Jacksonville because prices have come down so far (they were completely priced out a few years ago), but I can only hope they take good care of their homes (a little landscaping and new paint never hurt).

[Tonyinchicago]

So basically what your saying is all the rich people who live in Jacksonville are either becoming poor or are fleeing the city in droves?   

Many of the wealthy are not so wealthy anymore (and many lived on credit), and many have moved from in town to the beach.  Drive the riverfront neighborhoods - they aren't as kept up as they were just 4 years ago and it's not like someone living in a $4M home can't afford landscaping, but you'd be surprised to know that many have eliminated extra expenses such as landscaping.  Many many many people have moved out of town to the beach.  A lot of people who aren't from Jacksonville and who have money are turned off by the "old guard" in the older neighborhoods, and besides why spend millions on a home when across the street or a block away are very shoddy $100K homes and strip clubs and sleazy places lining the boulevards (namely Roosevelt, San Juan, Timucuana, etc).

Things have changed in Jacksonville, and people have lost money and people who still have money have taken advantage of cutrate prices for homes in Atlantic Beach, South Jacksonville Beach and Ponte Vedra Beach.

1st time homebuyers are buying like crazy in Jacksonville because prices have come down so far (they were completely priced out a few years ago), but I can only hope they take good care of their homes (a little landscaping and new paint never hurt).

How very correct you are.  Remember the 90's?  Everyone had money and you could breeze though an airport?

[tufsu1]

If the JTA would provide it's customers a way to know arrival times, there would be a dramatic increase in ridership. 

do you have any data to prove this point?

I ask because most cities that have implemented this type of technology have seen less than a 10% increase....which, in most cases, matches the ridership increases of systems generally over the last 5 years (implying the technology had minial effect on its own).

10% is not a bad increase.

sure, but transit agencuies that haven't installed auto vehicle locators are also showing increases.

[cityimrov]

So basically what your saying is all the rich people who live in Jacksonville are either becoming poor or are fleeing the city in droves?   

Many of the wealthy are not so wealthy anymore (and many lived on credit), and many have moved from in town to the beach.  Drive the riverfront neighborhoods - they aren't as kept up as they were just 4 years ago and it's not like someone living in a $4M home can't afford landscaping, but you'd be surprised to know that many have eliminated extra expenses such as landscaping.  Many many many people have moved out of town to the beach.  A lot of people who aren't from Jacksonville and who have money are turned off by the "old guard" in the older neighborhoods, and besides why spend millions on a home when across the street or a block away are very shoddy $100K homes and strip clubs and sleazy places lining the boulevards (namely Roosevelt, San Juan, Timucuana, etc).

Things have changed in Jacksonville, and people have lost money and people who still have money have taken advantage of cutrate prices for homes in Atlantic Beach, South Jacksonville Beach and Ponte Vedra Beach.

1st time homebuyers are buying like crazy in Jacksonville because prices have come down so far (they were completely priced out a few years ago), but I can only hope they take good care of their homes (a little landscaping and new paint never hurt).

What happened to the previous wealthy people at the beaches?  Did they move somewhere else?

Your painting one of the most depressing picture of Jacksonville I've seen so far.  If Jacksonville keeps going the direction the city is going now and your showing a major shift in demographics, this place is about to jump off a cliff.  It's going to turn into Detroit until something major changes. 

[fsquid]

I'm continually baffled - I go home to Avondale and I see nice new cars, young people, awesome new establishments and restaurants that are full, but when it comes to housing the place looks like a friggin dump and these cool, desirable places are still seeing prices coming down!

Easy, people are renting.  The renters in my neighborhood seem to be living with more discretionary income than I do without knowing their situation, granted.  Maybe it is because the monthly fee is just rent to the landlord instead of the maintenance  and other CapEx things I have to pay for.

[simms3]

^^^What do you mean?  Atlantic Beach is looking better than ever and all sorts of homes are being renovated.  Ponte Vedra Beach is still seeing new construction all over the place - including oceanfront.  Homes are also being built in ICW, and all the new apartments going up (especially the higher end apartments) are being built in ICW and as far west as Town Center.

It's a shame to say, but these areas still have a ton to offer, are closer to most of the higher paying jobs, and these areas are relatively crime free and have a very neat, landscaped and kept up appearance relative to the intown neighborhoods.

When I return home to visit, I always find myself asking why on earth would someone spend millions to live in Ortega especially, but also parts of Avondale that are just not so nice looking overall.  My mother, a realtor, says that is now a major problem.  Clients of my mother who moved from a nice area of [insert city] bought a home one lot from the waterfront in Avondale (a home built in something like 1910).  They also bought an oceanfront condo in S. Jax Beach, but their number one complaint about Avondale is that while they love their home and their street, not 4-5 blocks away it can look a little rough and to get anywhere they have to drive past tattoo parlors and strip clubs and poorly landscaped thoroughfares (other cities' nice areas are mostly entirely nice, truly separating the haves from the have nots).

The prior residents were long-term residents of Avondale-Ortega, St. Marks church, Yacht Club and TCC, etc etc, but they left all that behind for Ponte Vedra.  The current residents from [insert city]are good friends of fellow doctor families and people they have met out at the beach, but I don't think they have mixed in with the "old guard" crowd.

What I have noticed is that a lot of transplants like neighborhoods such as Avondale and Riverside because it reminds them of home, but I don't think they are ready to drop a significant chunk on these neighborhoods for fear their value won't be protected (and lo and behold they are correct).

Their value would be better protected if more houses were upkept and riff raff were separated better.  Another thing I have noticed is that some of the most successful historic neighborhoods have 2 things that Riverside-Avondale don't have (but that San Marco has to a good degree), and that is nice upkept parks and a mix of building styles.  Preserve the old, but also allow residents who want to be in the neighborhood but not necessarily live in an ancient home the ability to build something more contemporary or not necessarily "fitting".

Lastly, to give one a picture of how much money has vanished, (and full disclosure I hate hate spreading this rumor because so many of my lifetime memories were formed here) I have heard that the FYC is in pretty bad financial condition.  Apparently it's not alone, especially on that side of town.  Membership is way down (my parents, who are also strapped in this economy, are some of the many who quit...but they kept their membership at Ponte Vedra).

And it's not only millionaires you want investing in the core neighborhoods, but you also want young professionals who will inhabit the smaller starter homes, but also have enough to keep them landscaped and looking good.  You want the city to maintain the streetscapes (and if the city doesn't, Riverside-Avondale should self-tax).  The young professionals are mostly moving to the southside and to ICW, but they are of course happy to come in to eat at Orsay or the Brick or drink at Park/King.

Places like the Yacht Club and Timuquana need to revamp from exclusive old-guard clubs to a format like Ponte Vedra, which allows anyone to join for the price rather than requiring 3 members' recommendation and a board approval.  The whole shopping center at Herschel and St. Johns needs a major facelift and new tenants.  The plans that were for that area, including the roundabout, would probably have been great for that area, especially for creating a connector between Avondale and Ortega.

Roosevelt needs major work.  Riverside Ave needs a streetscape between King and I-95 that creates a nicer walking environment.

Appearances are what keep the beach and much of the southside appealing, and appearances often trump character.  Intown has the character, and it has the destinations, but it doesn't have the appearances or the protection of homevalue baked in like other parts of the city.

[fsquid]

^^^What do you mean?

IT was simply an observation to your comment that the homes look like shit, but the the restaurants and bars are still full.  The rest of your last post is spot on and I've observed the same in my 3 years here.

[Ocklawaha]

Not within the city limits but the metro is booming. Don't believe it? Within a few city blocks north of my house, 75 new homes are currently under construction. A little further north Rivertown has suddenly exploded with a dozen new streets, a fantastic amenity center and homes going up at pre-crash rates. To our east another 30 or so, are going up in Heritage Landing, WGV. South of my place there are several stillborn developments that have taken down the barricades, opened the gates and lot sales again. Murabella has at least 10 new homes under construction. Near the WGV central Golf Complex, ground has broken on another 20-30 homes for senior living. The WGV condos are also on the move again. Nocatee has jumped from 500 families to over 1,000 in a little over a year, and they too are laying in new roads and development. I'd say suburban Jacksonville is as healthy as anything in Central or South Florida. Flagler Development, WGV and St. Joe are all in this for the long haul, but the sounds of pneumatic power tools fills the daytime wire around here.

OCKLAWAHA

[simms3]

^^^What do you mean?

IT was simply an observation to your comment that the homes look like shit, but the the restaurants and bars are still full.  The rest of your last post is spot on and I've observed the same in my 3 years here.

Oh whoops, I was pointing arrows at cityimrov, I know you and I are in agreement.  The beach, SJC and ICW are stealing away all the wealth and the young professionals from intown.

[cityimrov]

^^^What do you mean?

IT was simply an observation to your comment that the homes look like shit, but the the restaurants and bars are still full.  The rest of your last post is spot on and I've observed the same in my 3 years here.

Oh whoops, I was pointing arrows at cityimrov, I know you and I are in agreement.  The beach, SJC and ICW are stealing away all the wealth and the young professionals from intown.

Replace everything you said about Jacksonville with Detroit & Wayne County.  Replace all the Beaches & World Golf Village with Bloomfield Hills and Oakland.  On the surface, you almost described Detroit.  There's some similarities though for this area except there's quite a lot of expensive homes next to the risky ocean.   

I'm not sure how to separate "the haves from the have nots" without turning into Robert Moses. 

I don't know how big this issue is since I haven't added the numbers but Jacksonville has certain debts and obligations that the old guard has given it.  These debts and obligations must be paid out.  This is usually through property tax.  If the property values go south, so does the revenue from those taxes.  In the mean time, areas like Ponte Vedra Beach get the income to do whatever they want from very high property tax revenue while Jacksonville looks like it's going to hold all the debt from the past. 

I don't like this picture. 

[Lunican]

Home of former Jaguars owners Wayne and Delores Barr Weaver for sale

Duval's fifth most valuable home, according to the property appraiser, will be up for auction May 24. The riverfront home of former Jaguars owners Wayne and Delores Barr Weaver was originally listed at $10 million. The buy-it-now price is $5.5 million.

Their daughter is selling her St. Augustine property, also through Concierge Auctions.

http://jacksonville.com/slideshows/jaguars/home-former-jaguars-owners-wayne-and-delores-barr-weaver-sale