Mark Woods: NBA at arena is too long of a jump shot

[thelakelander]

I can imagine Jacksonville filling the arena for 41 NBA games ... if Kenny Chesney can be booked for 41 pregame concerts.

Barring that, I just don't see it happening.

I bring this up because the mayor keeps bringing it up.

"Why not an NBA team one day? Can you imagine that?" Mayor Alvin Brown has asked repeatedly, inevitably answering his own question with an emphatic: "I can."

Maybe I don't have a good enough imagination, but I can't.

People often point to Oklahoma City and its revitalized, vibrant downtown - part of a place that recently was named the best entrepreneurial city in America - as a reason to pursue an NBA team. And while I'm sure the NBA is part of that vibrancy, it didn't start it.

In the early 1990s, in the wake of the oil bust, Oklahoma City launched a massive, city-changing makeover. And in December 2009, voters approved a 1-cent sales tax for eight projects designed to continue this, "increase the quality of life" and "create economic growth."

The projects include improvements to the Oklahoma River, a convention center, a downtown streetcar, a "world-class destination park" and 57 miles of new walking and biking trails.

Imagine that.

I can.

Full article: http://jacksonville.com/opinion/blog/401820/mark-woods/2011-08-03/mark-woods-nba-arena-too-long-jump-shot

[Tacachale]

Word. The mayor needs to drop this pipe dream.

[Wacca Pilatka]

Woods is absolutely right, of course, but I've always interpreted Mayor Brown's vision as more that of a significantly larger Jacksonville that takes better advantage of its resources and has grown enough to support both an NBA and an NFL team, rather than something he would prioritize over other growth opportunities.

[jcjohnpaint]

I never took him as saying in a term or two, but at some point!  ...and what is wrong with dreaming!

[Tacachale]

^It's just a silly thing for him to keep going on about. Especially when we have an NFL team to be concerned with.

[manasia]

LMAO at Mark Woods. This is a valid point.

[comncense]

The real thing is that Jacksonville wouldn't support an expansion team and they definitely wouldn't support a below average team that would be moved here. Most of Jacksonville's residents are typical bandwagon fans. If the team isn't great, they won't buy tickets. I'm sure if the Jags were in the playoffs every year, there would be no talks about blackouts. As soon as the Jags started to go to being a 8 and 8 and below team, that's when the problems occurred. I'm hesitant to even say that the economy had a huge part to do with it.

[Ocklawaha]

Obviously Jacksonville.

We "all know" that we won't ever support professional football. We "know" that downtown is far to dangerous to support human life. We "know" that there is no point trying to attract tourism when "everybody" will just drive to Disney anyway. We "know" that we can't develop streetcars or commuter rail until we reach that critical 10 million population mark. We "know" that nobody in this Wal-Mart town will ever shop at a Macy's or Sac's store. We also "know" that hoop snakes will bite their tails and thus forming a perfect hoop roll rapidly down hill in persuit of masses of humanity.

I recently asked 10 people at a rock concert how likely they would be to attend the ballet at least 5 times a year, but I was very disappointed in the response. It appears to me that the best course of action is more inaction, lets not do anything at all because, well, you know, its Jacksonville, so it will never work.

Spokane and Knoxville hosted a "Worlds Fair." Salt Lake City, Lake Placid and tiny Mammoth Lakes hosted the international Olympic games. Salt Lake City has the NBA and Oklahoma City is wild about their own basketball team while Charlotte sports both the NFL and the NBA...  And we're a bigger city then any of them.

The main difference and secret of success seems to be that the populace of these other cities have generally traveled beyond their own city limits at least once in their lives.  And not one of these other citizens believes they're descendants of a "town" called Cowford. Finally it appears that "Hoop Snakes" have been completely eradicated in the successful in the municipal coliseums and arenas of the competition.

Somebody needs to tell Mayor Brown to stop his progressive thinking. We all "know" that we can't compete, we're Jacksonville, and we've been snake bit.

OCKLAWAHA

[Wacca Pilatka]

The real thing is that Jacksonville wouldn't support an expansion team and they definitely wouldn't support a below average team that would be moved here. Most of Jacksonville's residents are typical bandwagon fans. If the team isn't great, they won't buy tickets. I'm sure if the Jags were in the playoffs every year, there would be no talks about blackouts. As soon as the Jags started to go to being a 8 and 8 and below team, that's when the problems occurred. I'm hesitant to even say that the economy had a huge part to do with it.

The same thing happens in most all markets, except ones where the teams are a deeply ingrained tradition that will not experience ticket holder churn regardless of whether the team is miserable.  It was more obvious in Jacksonville because it's a smaller market with a smaller margin for error, and because the media tends to pick on Jacksonville even when other markets are doing significantly worse jobs of supporting their respective teams.  Jacksonville is not more of a bandwagon market than Washington or San Diego or Miami or many other larger metros.

It's really a moot point right now because no NBA team would move into the arena right now anyway, and not just for market size reasons.  It's not big or amenity-loaded enough for current NBA standards.  When it was built, the assumption was that by the time Jacksonville grew big enough to support another pro team, it would be time for a new arena.

Of course, I'd love for Mayor Brown to prove that prediction wrong and accelerate intelligent growth, leveraging of the city's natural advantages, etc. and bring a second pro team to the city as a result.

[duvaldude08]

Hey its just his dream for the city. It may never happen, but I think its part of a bigger vision he has for Jacksonville. What I take away from the article is, if we do what Oklahoma did, we could position our self to possiable attract an NBA ONE DAY. Oklahoma is definately a city that we should take notes from. ( as far as revitilization, etc)

AS far as the Jags, yes the economy played a huge role. I know several people who felt bad because they could no longer afford their season tickets. $330.00 can make a HUGE difference in someone finances, lets be real about it. I could never afford tickets until last year. And this year I bought season tickets, and also purchased two single games tickets to give out to friends. I'll be buying two more when the regular season tickets go on sale. go Jags!!

[Rynjny]

Let's just try to keep the jaguars in jacksonville first before any NBA talks..This city would be nothing without the Jaguars!

[KenFSU]

Though I admire Brown's optimism, I do think it is a rather foolish thing to say. Anyone who follows the NBA closely knows that, if anything, the league is looking to contract, rather than expand. They also know that it is extremely difficult for a small market NBA team to be financially viable. Maybe the new CBA will change that similar to what happened to hockey, but even with a season ticket waiting list and a ton of corporate sponsors, I don't see any situation where Jacksonville could even hope to land a team in the next 25 years. Our arena is inadequate, and there are just too many other much larger cities, many with brand new facilities, dying to get their hands on a team. We'd have to take a place in line behind Vancouver, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Kansas City, Seattle, possibly Las Vegas, and if David Stern gets his way, maybe even a few European cities. I respect Brown's optimism, but to suggest that we even have a prayer at an NBA team in the next decade or two is setting himself and the city up for a letdown. One day, sure. But one day, based on current circumstances, is looking to be a long, long, long way out.

[Clem1029]

I've said this many times elsewhere, but based on simple market size comparison, there is zero chance another major sports league would locate a team here in the next 5-10 years. Jax is in the area of having its one pro team for its market size. Check the latest market rankings - there are only two markets smaller than ours with more than one team: New Orleans (market size crashed after Katrina) and Buffalo (middle of the heart of hockey country and the Bills are frequently mentioned for relocation). The next largest market with 2 pro teams is Milwaukee, and in order to get to their market size, Jax's market would have to increase by one-third it's current size. That's a huge order, no matter who's in charge of the city's growth policies.

And Oklahoma City as an NBA city is a terrible comparison - the better comparison is how many pro sports teams it can support. Put an NFL or MLB team in that market with the Thunder? Someone is going to come out on the losing end of that setup - its just basic market dynamics. OKC has their one pro franchise, Jax has their one. It's what the market will handle.

So even if you can figure out a way around the market size, there's still the idea of which pro league to target. Unless the Magic move (a basic impossibility with the new arena they just built), there's no way the NBA further dilutes the Florida market to put a team in Jacksonville (north Florida/south Georgia isn't a strong enough market to hold it's own between the Hawks and Magic, let alone the evil that shall not be named in the south part of the state). The better possibility (and I use "better" loosely) is to target the Rays and bring an MLB team here instead. Except that's buried in plenty of issues too - the Baseball Grounds is less prepared for a pro team than the arena is (although, given how many people the Rays pull in... ;-) ), so it's play at Everbank (disaster) and/or rebuild the Baseball Grounds less than a decade after it was built (not going to happen).

So yeah, this NBA talk is a pipe dream - about 15 things need to happen in order for it to even be discussed as a possibility. Could it happen? Maybe 15-20 years from now. But this isn't a "this wouldn't work in Jacksonville" thing - it's a "this wouldn't work in any market like Jacksonville."

[cityimrov]

Did MJ turn into normal Jacksonville?  What's with the pessimism here?  If Mayor Brown wants to bring and NBA team here, why won't you guys let him?  I expected some part from the TU but not you guys.  Look, the NBA is never going to come to this city unless this city actually does SOMETHING!  If Mayor Brown is more than willing to make sure this city DOES SOMETHING, then why won't you guys let him? 

I can't believe I'm writing this here.  I know I should be asking this question to a lot of people in the Jacksonville.com comments, but here?  Really? 

[KenFSU]

Did MJ turn into normal Jacksonville?  What's with the pessimism here?  If Mayor Brown wants to bring and NBA team here, why won't you guys let him?  I expected some part from the TU but not you guys.  Look, the NBA is never going to come to this city unless this city actually does SOMETHING!  If Mayor Brown is more than willing to make sure this city DOES SOMETHING, then why won't you guys let him? 

I can't believe I'm writing this here.  I know I should be asking this question to a lot of people in the Jacksonville.com comments, but here?  Really? 

There's a huge difference between pessimism and realism. Given the NBA's current situation and 20 year plan, the financial struggles of nearly every small market NBA team outside of OKC, a history of attendance problems in the two nearest NBA markets (Orlando and Atlanta) and likely unwillingness to water down either one of those fanbases, the size of our arena, corporate presence in Jacksonville relative other NBA teams, etc., there is quite literally a zero percent possibility that the NBA would place a franchise not just in Jacksonville, but in any market comparable to Jacksonville, anytime in the next 15 or 20 years. I love Jacksonville, and think we have a lot going for us, but I was simply stating that landing an NBA franchise is logistically impossible, from every conceivable angle. It's not bashing Jacksonville, but stating the simple, logical facts. I think the above poster put it perfect when he said: "This isn't a "this wouldn't work in Jacksonville" thing - it's a "this wouldn't work in any market like Jacksonville."