Audrey Moran Has Momentum in Polls; Weaver, Gentry Show Support

[Jimmy]

Those of you who support Audrey Moran have much to be thankful for tonight.  JaxObserver.com is sharing the results of county-wide polling that they've done.

http://www.jaxobserver.com/2011/03/20/poll-hogan-moran-lead-mayoral-race/

With a margin of error of 3.88, this scientific poll of Jacksonville (March 17-18) found Mike Hogan leading Audrey Moran by only 1 percentage point.  These results are incredible for those of us support Audrey.

From the article linked above:

In the top race on the ballot, Mike Hogan leads Audrey Moran  by a slim margin of 28% to 27%.    Hogan is dominating among Republican voters, taking 45% to Moran’s 18%, however, Moran is making up the difference by splitting Democrats evenly with Alvin Brown.

“There was a void in the moderate-to-liberal marketplace that Audrey Moran has managed to capitalize on.   The fact that she is the only female is also advantageous to her,” said Brian Graham of Dixie Strategies.  â€œWhat I see from these numbers is that Hogan is a lock for a spot in the run-off and if I were Rick Mullaney, I’d be very worried right now.”

The race for third place is also tight, as our survey shows Democrat Alvin Brown edging past Republican Rick Mullaney by a fraction of a percent.   Brown has 16.5% while Mullaney captures 16.2%.

A big question is whether the barrage of negative attacks that Mullaney has launched against Moran will be enough to shift voters and change the outcome.

“Things could sink in over the weekend and shake a few points loose,” said Graham of the Mullaney assault.  â€œI’m not saying it can’t be done, but it’s tough.”

Graham also points to the relatively low number of undecided voters in this race â€" about 6% â€" as more evidence in support of a Hogan and Moran run-off.

Additionally, two big names pushed GOTV for Audrey today.  A recorded telephone message (otherwise known as a "robocall") featuring Delores Weaver was made to many voters in Jacksonville this afternoon.

Also, W.C. Gentry, the chairman of the Duval County School Board (and all around civic good guy) dispatched a letter of support for Audrey today.  It reads:

Dear Friends,
I truly believe the pending Mayor's election is one of the most important in the history of our City. I urge you to vote for Audrey Moran. Audrey has a positive, long term vision for our City, the courage and capacity to take on and solve the tough issues and the compassion to recognize a public responsibility to all our citizens.

There are no silver bullets or simple solutions. We do not need any more ideologues committed to "no taxes" or a politically scripted 7, 34 or any other numbered plan. We need a real leader who will put this City and its people first, who will surround herself with the best and brightest to get it done and who will bring a new direction to City Hall. I urge you in the strongest terms to vote for Audrey and continue your support as we move into a likely runoff.

W. C. Gentry

There is great momentum heading Audrey's way ahead of election-day balloting on Tuesday.  With the numbers so close, those of us supporting Audrey MUST continue our efforts to get friends, coworkers, and family members to their polling place on Tuesday.  With lower overall voter turnout predicted, it becomes CRITICAL to get Audrey's voters out on Tuesday.

[fsujax]

I sure hope so!

[tufsu1]

wow...that is amazing....could this be the one time that negative campaigning doesn't work?

[Jimmy]

Could very well be!  There's no question that Audrey has the momentum in this race.  And it's peaking at the perfect moment, in terms of the electoral calendar.  Great stuff.

[stjr]

Be careful, complacency is a dangerous feeling to have in a "race".  Just ask the hare!

[Jimmy]

Very, very dangerous.  This is no time for Audrey supporters to rest.  This election is far from won.

Yesterday I worked the phones.  Today I canvassed my neighbors.  Tomorrow I'll get in some work and then do some more canvassing among the gay community.

Tuesday I'll take off work and shuttle friends and family to their polling locations.  And sign-wave.  And hopefully, at the end of the night, drink a big toast to victory. 

And then on to May to do it all again for the general.

[mfc]

To stir. I agree although the tortuous in this race has.been Audrey and Rick is the hare. He raised so much money so quick and went on air before anyone. Audrey just kept to her plan slowly but surely raising money.  Looks like this may be paying off for her. Good for Audrey, better for jax!!  Matt Carlucci sr

[wsansewjs]

Be careful, complacency is a dangerous feeling to have in a "race".  Just ask the hare!

Hehehe, Yep that and the Political Supporter Bubbles I warned about it.

-Josh

[Jimmy]

The JaxObserver is releasing some of the demographic numbers from the poll.

"51% of Moran's support comes from Democrats, 45% from Republicans.."  That, my friends, is as bipartisan as it gets.

[konstantconsumer]

Amazing news.  Of course, this doesn't help unless you GET OUT AND VOTE!

[Jimmy]

+1

[Jimmy]

Dixie Strategies gives some demo breakdowns on their Jax Observer poll.  Hoping to see more.

http://www.jaxobserver.com/poll/JaxPoll.pdf  (PDF)

[Doctor_K]

Heard from a couple of local news sources this morning that supposedly the Supervisor of Elections is expecting a turnout of at or below 30%. 

Sad and embarrassing.  And shame on the other 70%.

I'm glad that the fiancée and I will be among the 30%.

Happy voting all!

[fsujax]

that is terrible. What is wrong with people?

[urbanlibertarian]

Did they poll registered voters or likely voters?