YAY, Let The Bidding Begin!!! Here we come: High Speed Rail for Florida!!!!

[FayeforCure]

Saturday, March 12, 2011 7:26 AM
i-Poll11111111-1111-1111-1111-111111111111
Do you think cities and counties should bid on their own for federal money for high-speed rail?

Yes

No
 
Do you think cities and counties should bid on their own for federal money for high-speed rail?
Yes (47%) No (53%)
View all recent polls ORLANDO -- 
It looks like Florida will get another chance at high-speed rail, and this time, it won't need the governor's approval.

The news came from Washington early Friday evening.   

One of the project’s biggest supporters, Sen. Bill Nelson, was elated and has remained cautiously optimistic he would be able to find a way to bypass Gov. Rick Scott if Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood would go for it.

But a few things still have to happen.

First, there has to be an inter-local agreement between the cities where the rail runs -- Orlando, Lakeland and Tampa â€" which is already there.

Next, they have to partner with someone other than the state to operate the rail likely Amtrak, although it could be a newly created rail authority.

Finally, since we passed on the $2.4 billion originally, now it's open to everyone in the country.

However, Nelson is pretty confident we will win the bid process.

http://www.cfnews13.com/article/news/2011/march/217665/Florida-gets-another-shot-at-highspeed-rail

[buckethead]

Part of me actually hopes it goes through, although certain experts have convinced me that the selected route is suspect.

If it goes through, and turns out to be even moderately successful, being wrong will feel good.

Being right will be awful.

[thelakelander]

Of course they should bid on their own and I wish them the best of luck on their endeavors down there in Central Florida. Unfortunately, they don't have a snowball's chance in hell of pulling it off.

1. The ROW is owned by the State.  Scott has already said he will refuse to work with them.

2. I can't imagine USDOT awarding only one entity the $2.4 billion.  The project is probably a no go, assuming they win a small percentage of the grand total the state just sent back to Washington.

The fact is, they are screwed, Sunrail is screwed, Tri-Rail is screwed, FEC/Amtrak is screwed and Jax commuter rail is a no go as long as Scott is in Tallahassee.  We might as well stop dreaming and face reality.  Nothing significant on any level is going to happen the next couple of years.  We might as well use this indefinite delay to improve what we already have locally and to get this done, its going to mean electing a mayor who will at least acknowledge the importance of mass transit on our communities.

[mtraininjax]

The fact is, they are screwed, Sunrail is screwed, Tri-Rail is screwed, FEC/Amtrak is screwed and Jax commuter rail is a no go

So I take it you are not optomistic???

[thelakelander]

No, i'm realistic.

[FayeforCure]

Of course they should bid on their own and I wish them the best of luck on their endeavors down there in Central Florida. Unfortunately, they don't have a snowball's chance in hell of pulling it off.

1. The ROW is owned by the State.  Scott has already said he will refuse to work with them.

2. I can't imagine USDOT awarding only one entity the $2.4 billion.  The project is probably a no go, assuming they win a small percentage of the grand total the state just sent back to Washington.

The fact is, they are screwed, Sunrail is screwed, Tri-Rail is screwed, FEC/Amtrak is screwed and Jax commuter rail is a no go as long as Scott is in Tallahassee.  We might as well stop dreaming and face reality.  Nothing significant on any level is going to happen the next couple of years.  We might as well use this indefinite delay to improve what we already have locally and to get this done, its going to mean electing a mayor who will at least acknowledge the importance of mass transit on our communities.

Do we know who that might be?

[thelakelander]

From the debate the other night, Moran, Brown and Lee stood out on the issue of mass transit.

[FayeforCure]

From the debate the other night, Moran, Brown and Lee stood out on the issue of mass transit.

Then..........all those local people passionate about mass transit, should make sure they do not vote for Hogan. And to beat him, the best vote would be for Audrey Moran.

Disclaimer, I CANNOT vote in the Duval elections since I do not reside in Duval county.

Haven't we learned yet, that it's impossible to convince anti-mass transit leaders to change their minds? Hence, make sure we do not vote for empty seat Hogan.

[FayeforCure]

Of course they should bid on their own and I wish them the best of luck on their endeavors down there in Central Florida. Unfortunately, they don't have a snowball's chance in hell of pulling it off.

1. The ROW is owned by the State.  Scott has already said he will refuse to work with them.

2. I can't imagine USDOT awarding only one entity the $2.4 billion.  The project is probably a no go, assuming they win a small percentage of the grand total the state just sent back to Washington.

The fact is, they are screwed, Sunrail is screwed, Tri-Rail is screwed, FEC/Amtrak is screwed and Jax commuter rail is a no go as long as Scott is in Tallahassee.  We might as well stop dreaming and face reality.  Nothing significant on any level is going to happen the next couple of years.  We might as well use this indefinite delay to improve what we already have locally and to get this done, its going to mean electing a mayor who will at least acknowledge the importance of mass transit on our communities.

I cannot agree with you more and it should not have come as a surprise to the astute observers of politics.

The Awakening

After almost thirteen years of Republican rule (certainly not governance), ordinary Floridians are beginning to awaken from their corporately-induced stupor and realize something is very wrong...

So now, I call on fellow Republicans who believe in traditional Republicanism ( I used to be a traditional Republican myself) to make sure they pressure the legislature to override any possible Scott veto on HSR:

Nelson admitted one of the potential hurdles could still be the governor.     

The state owns the median of Interstate 4 where the rail would be built.

The senator said the governor could try to block the project on those grounds, but then the state Legislature could intervene

[Ocklawaha]

Check out those TALL SOUND BARRIER WALLS and at least in urban area's get ready for what might as well be a windowless train...

The Tampa-to-Orlando route had obvious drawbacks:It would have linked two cities that are virtually unnavigable without cars, and that are so close that the new train would have been little faster than driving. But the Obama administration chose it anyway because it was seen as the line that could be built first.

The 21-mile leg between Orlando International Airport and Walt Disney World, which agreed to donate land for a stop, had the potential to attract lots of riders, and revenue â€" though such a short distance would be better served by a conventional train, or perhaps a monorail.

A Route Is Seen as Too Short

Florida’s route had some glaring imperfections, though.

Tampa and Orlando are only 84 miles apart, generally considered too close for high-speed rail to make sense. The train trip, with many stops along the way, would have shaved only around a half-hour off the drive. Since there are no commercial flights between the two cities...

(FOR THE SAME COMMERCIAL REASON THAT NOBODY WANTS TO GO FROM THE ORLANDO AIRPORT TO TAMPA BUT MAGICALLY THE TRAIN WILL ATTRACT ABOUT A BILLION PASSENGERS A YEAR! OCK)

...the new line would not have lured away fliers or freed up landing slots at the busy airports. And neither Tampa nor Orlando has many public transportation options. So the question arose: Could riders be persuaded to leave their cars behind and buy tickets to places where they would still probably need cars?

(BECAUSE THE STATE HAS LITTLE TO NO HISTORY OF SUPPORTING PASSENGER RAIL WITH ITS EVER SHRINKING INTRASTATE AMTRAK NETWORK. OCK)

Although the state’s plan called for eventually extending the line down to Miami, making the train an attractive alternative to short-hop flights or long drives, the extension would have required more time and planning and much more money to build. When the planning group considered a route linking Tampa, Orlando and Miami, it ranked it 100th among potential high-speed rail routes in the United States, far behind likelier choices like the Northeast Corridor.

BUT A TOTALLY BOGUS, FABRICATED FROM WHOLE CLOTH "STUDY" SUDDENLY OVERCAME ALL OBJECTIONS? REALLY?  THERE IS NOT A SHRED OF EVIDENCE THAT ANYBODY IN THE ORLANDO METRO AREA IS GOING TO BENEFIT FROM A TRAIN THAT DOESN'T PIERCE THE ORLANDO METRO AREA... OCK!

...And there goes HIGH SPEED RAIL, a great idea built in the wrong place...right off the cliff.

And 28 years later, I'm going to be saying "I told you so!" Hey maybe MJ can do an article,
I've even got a title for you... "SKYWAY HSR 28 YEARS LATER."

OCKLAWAHA

[thelakelander]

This looks like the Kathleen Road interchange.  There you have a significant grade level change on I-4, a CSX overpass and three road overpasses within a short distance of each other.

[FayeforCure]

Ock, not sure where you are quoting from..........Florida came in 100th place in a ranking?

Come on, does that even sound remotely true??!!??!!

I assume they are referring to a very old study done by America2050 in 2009, that was grossly incomplete. While the updated 2011 study by America 2050 was also largely incomplete ( ignoring the all important tourism factor in Central Florida of which conceptually 5% may ride the train, giving the HSR the 2.5 million ridership needed to make the HSR line feasible), they have gone out of their way to make sure publications do not abuse their rankings:

Why and How Florida's High-Speed Rail Line Must be Built
By Petra on January 13, 2011  | 4 Comments
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    E-mail This week, America 2050 released a report evaluating all potential high-speed rail corridors around the country on their ability to attract riders based on quantifiable regional characteristics, such as concentrations of jobs, population density, and rail transit networks. Our report drew attention to the fact that Florida's population and jobs are more decentralized and auto-dependent compared to other regions around the country, potentially challenging the state's ability to attract riders to a high-speed rail system.

Some critics may seize on this evaluation to bolster their claims that Florida should not invest in a high-speed rail system. They are misinterpreting the point of our report, which identifies the most promising corridor in each region and points to ways to improve each project's chances for success.

The Tampa-Orlando-Miami corridor is the most promising corridor in Florida, while also possessing several key attributes that make it an excellent project. These include project readiness and public ownership of the right of way for the initial segment. Because of the difficulty in quantifying these important attributes, they were not accounted for in our report scoring system, but of all rail corridors in the nation currently being discussed, Florida's first leg - Tampa to Orlando - leads the nation in feasibility.

The importance of feasibility cannot be overstated. The promise of true high-speed rail has yet to be experienced anywhere in the United States, not even in the Northeast Corridor, where Amtrak's Acela Express service falls short of international standards. The Tampa-Orlando segment of Florida's high-speed rail corridor will be the first leg in a statewide and national system that can demonstrate the potential of high-speed rail to transform inter-city travel. This is similar to the role that the first segments in the Interstate Highway System played half a century ago in demonstrating the potential for these highways to transform late 20th century travel.  

Central Florida also possesses a special attribute that distinguishes the region from almost every other: close to 50 million annual visitors to Central Florida destinations like Disney World. Our study did not fully incorporate the impact of these visitors into the evaluation as that situation is unique to the Florida corridor. If only 5 percent of these visitors take the high-speed rail line to connect from the airport to Disney World, they would meet the passenger estimates of 2.4 million for the entire Tampa-Orlando line in the first year of operation. A growing share of Florida's European and Asian visitors also use high-speed rail at home and can be expected to travel on Florida's new system, giving the state's vital tourism economy a boost.

http://www.america2050.org/2011/01/why-and-how-floridas-high-speed-rail-line-must-be-built.html

Besides we have a new independent report the FDOT released that shows the profitability of Florida HSR, even generating over $10 million in the first year alone.

[Ocklawaha]

And I have a yard full of blue unicorns and flying pygmy armadillos pulling me away from the screen! Believe it and be deluded.

OCKLAWAHA

[tufsu1]

Then..........all those local people passionate about mass transit, should make sure they do not vote for Hogan. And to beat him, the best vote would be for Audrey Moran.

another Democrat coming around....way to go Faye!

[Ocklawaha]

To maintain public support for a continued federal commitment to high-speed rail, the initial investments must be viewed as a success. Although there are many promising projects in smaller travel markets that should be part of a fully constructed network, these will be better positioned for success if the initial $8 billion are invested in projects that can achieve the greatest travel benefits for the largest numbers in the shortest period
of time.

Phase Two: Phase two of the plan provides connections to many of the remaining city pairs ranked in the top 100 and includes parts of ten of the eleven megaregions. New routes in this phase include Dallas to Houston (ranked 10th), Los Angeles to Phoenix (ranked 15th), Los Angeles to Las Vegas (ranked 23rd), Portland to Seattle (ranked 29), Miami to Tampa via Orlando (ranked 100), and the “Southeast Corridor” that runs from Atlanta to Washington, D.C. via Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, and Richmond. Phase two also includes extensions to the three systems begun in phase one extending the California system south to San Diego, the Northeast system to Albany, and the Midwest system east to Cleveland.

The $8 billion appropriated for intercity rail projects represents a major commitment to intercity rail by the federal government. It will take many more of these appropriations, however, to realize the ultimate goal. These initial federal investments in intercity rail should be directed toward corridors with the greatest demand for intercity travel. In general, this demand occurs in city pairs located 100 â€" 500 miles from each another, with large populations, economies, and the presence of regional and local transit networks that can provide connections for intercity passengers. America’s 11 emerging megaregionsâ€"networks of metropolitan regions connected by linked economies, travel patterns, and shared environmental resourcesâ€"are among the prime areas suited for intercity rail investment. The success of these investments in attracting sufficient ridership to offset operating expenses and the ensuing public support for the projects selected for the first round of funding,

rail investments, it is essential that the FRA select corridors where the conditions exist to support strong passenger demand for high-speed services. In addition to the FRA’s criteria described above, it is critical to identify the corridors across the country with the maximum potential to support high-speed rail in order to minimize this investment risk. To do so, America 2050 has developed a ranking system based on an index of six criteria to judge the extent of demand for high-speed rail between any two city pairs. Each city pair consists of two cities, each with a population of at least 50,000 that are separated by a distance of 100 to 500 miles. These criteria were weighted and then calculated into an index that scored the city pairs. The largest index score represented the best potential market for high-speed rail. Nearly thirty thousand city pairs were analyzed to determine their suitability for high-speed rail investment. The criteria and the results of the index are described below.

The city pairs were evaluated on the basis of the following criteria:

• City and metropolitan area population, favoring cities with larger populations in large metropolitan areas.
• Distance between city pairs, confined to distances between 100-500 miles, with 250 miles receiving the highest value.
• Metropolitan regions with existing transit systems including regional rail, commuter rail and local transit networks.
• Metropolitan GDP, awarding value based on the combined per-capita GDP.
• Metropolitan regions with high levels of auto congestion as measured by the Texas Transportation Institute’s Travel Time Index.
• Metropolitan regions that are located within a megaregion.

The rationale for each of these criteria is described below.
Criterion 1: Metropolitan Size
To ensure sufficient travel demand for high-speed rail service, it is best to locate stations in major metropolitan areas. There are 21 metro regions in the nation with a population of at least 2.5 million; all are located within one of the 11 emerging megaregions across the country. Megaregions are networks of metropolitan regions with shared economies, infrastructure and natural resource systems. The Northeast Megaregion alone contains four of the top ten most populous metro regions in the nation â€" New York, Philadelphia, than 500 miles are more efficiently travelled by air. There are significant barriers to air travel causing it to be inefficient at short distances. These barriers include accessing airports located outside the metropolitan core, onerous security processes, long check-in times, and airport delays and congestion. These time barriers to air travel result in significant time advantages to efficient rail service. This time advantage drops off sharply at distances beyond 500 miles when the superior in-flight speed of air travel overwhelms the initial time costs of travelling to and checking in at the airport. This index weighted the distance criteria such that it peaked between 200 and 300 miles and decreased to zero after 500 miles, replicating performance of existing systems in Europe and Asia.

SOURCE:  http://www.america2050.org/pdf/Where-HSR-Works-Best.pdf

OCKLAWAHA