Florida's firm HSR Plans were based on Decades long Planning

[FayeforCure]

I've disagreed with Faye on several issues concerning this project but allowing it to be bid on by the private sector groups is an example of getting FDOT out of the way and giving rail professionals a chance to look at this. At this point, I haven't seen one logical argument to support letting $2.4 billion move on to other states before opening it up to the bidding process.

Thanks lake!

The logical argument actually is that private industry DOES see profitability in the HSR line as currently planned, something Republicans definitely do NOT want to acknowledge!!!!! So real bidding has to be avoided at all cost  

Reality, schmelity.

As America2050 said:

Central Florida also possesses a special attribute that distinguishes the region from almost every other: close to 50 million annual visitors to Central Florida destinations like Disney World.  If only 5 percent of these visitors take the high-speed rail line to connect from the airport to Disney World, they would meet the passenger estimates of 2.4 million for the entire Tampa-Orlando line in the first year of operation.

http://www.america2050.org/2011/01/why-and-how-floridas-high-speed-rail-line-must-be-built.html

[spuwho]

As I have sat on the sidelines and read through the arguments pro and con I wanted to add a few.

All things considered, if the Fed's did the funds, Florida outsourced it to the highest bidder as a private build/operator, the state would still be on hook if the operator files for bankruptcy.

The problem with passenger only HSR is that it requires high load factors and frequent volumes to cover a portion of its COC (cost of capital).

Traditional rail (in the old days) easily made up for the COC for passengers with freight margins. However, passenger only HSR looks to make up the difference in that COC through the heavy use of federal and state monies.

IMHO, this is why so many foreign based firms have such a huge interest in bidding the project, because that is how they make it work in their respective countries. They have experience in government funded capital of HSR.

I think Ock is right in that some of the approaches to this plan are flawed and have issues that need addressing.

I think the Obama Administration has simply copied how Europe funds their rail network and is attempting to duplicate it here. I think the Administration has merit in what they are trying to accomplish, however their methods and means are subject to scrutiny and review.

The absence of traditional domestic rail operators speaks volumes in how they perceive the economics of the HSR proposal.

In summary:

- Does Florida need HSR? yes eventually
- Does the current plan make sense? Not 100 percent. It needs some revisions
- Should the taxpayers be on the hook? If there is public interest, then yes, they should have some skin in the game.

[thelakelander]

I guess, my point is we should evaluate this in further detail by putting it out to bid instead of calling it quits this early in the game.  Quite simply, we could really use the economic benefit gained from such an investment in our state.  Thus, we should be treating this the same way we did for the Outer Beltway.  There, the private sector has indicated its unfeasible and we're still trying to find ways to get it done.  Here, we're not even giving the private sector a chance to look at this and suggest modifications to make a more feasible project. 

[FayeforCure]

spuwho, thanks for joining the conversation.

I'm afraid it is quite the other way around though.

It's not that we have to worry about these 8 consortiums going bankrupt........after all. many of them have been functioning just fine for decades without any US help. Rather these consortiums want to be sure that continued federal resources are there to keep building on further US services.

As has been said before........the Orlando-Tampa line is lucrative to them, if only for the opportunity to work on the future Orlando-Miami portion. BUT these consortiums have to be assured of steady federal funding going forward rather than politically fickle "on and off" type funding (Rick Scott exhibiting the ultimate political fickleness at the expense of tens of thousands of jobs for FL):

financing HSR is entirely feasible, but will only happen if the administration and its congressional allies take bold steps to rebalance our transportation priorities. Fortunately, there is both a funding source and a road map for moving from today’s scattershot federal transportation spending to a results-driven enterprise.

The funding source is the Highway Trust Fund, with approximate funds of $52 billion a year. Allocating a portion of highway funds for rail construction is an equitable way to wean drivers away from auto travel by providing them with a faster, safer, and more environmentally sound alternative.

Congress could easily allot $5 billion a year for HSR construction â€" without an increase in the gas tax â€" by cutting out earmarks and formula-based grants that now soak up billions of dollars, according to the General Accountability Office (GAO).

Such fund reallocations could not only jumpstart HSR projects but serve as seed money for public-private partnerships to get the work done.

Already, international rail operators have expressed interest in competing for high-speed train contracts in the U.S. But these groups are waiting for the Obama administration to lay out a comprehensive financing plan before structuring bids.

The use of a well-established and reliable source of transportation financing could make these deals happen.

http://www.progressivefix.com/a-smart-way-to-finance-high-speed-rail-restructuring-the-highway-trust-fund-into-a-results-driven-transportation-fund

BTW why would you think we would have private American companies willing and able to get HSR done.........we simply haven't built the expertise to do this given the anti-rail attitude that is still being fueled in the US.

Let's see what happens when gas hits $5 per gallon in the summer, but the US is so behind the curve on this, that I'm afraid foreign train builders have already cornered the market!

Lack of forward vision is America's #1 problem.

[mtraininjax]

the Orlando-Tampa line is lucrative

Ock - Can you and Stephen build an MetroORLANDO for Faye? Or better yet, MetroTAMPA???

MetroJacksonville.com could CARE LESS ABOUT HSR!!!!!

[Mattius92]

woot! MetroOrlando.com, the place were Jaxvillians can talk about Orlando and how horrible its transportation is. The entire city is a traffic jam, except its miles of tollways. Okay enough with off-topic responses PEOPLE!

[FayeforCure]

Not so fast mtraininjax!

From the TU in Oct 2010:

"The future of high-speed rail in Florida," said Kevin Thibault, executive director of Florida Rail Enterprise, "is Jacksonville and Southeast Florida."

The present is Central Florida along the Interstate 4 corridor. The state has secured $1.25 billion in federal stimulus funds to build a high-speed rail from Tampa to Orlando. That line is expected to be open in late 2015.

Thibault spoke at a Tuesday luncheon at the Jacksonville office of the Florida Department of Transportation, which runs the Florida Rail Enterprise.

The state plans to extend high-speed rail from Orlando to Miami. A Jacksonville connection would be next.

"From Jacksonville we can establish links out of the state to somewhere like Atlanta," Thibault said. "And we really can't connect out of state unless we go through Jacksonville."



Read more at Jacksonville.com: http://jacksonville.com/news/metro/2010-10-19/story/jacksonville-told-prepare-high-speed-rail#ixzz1ESFQ8P1z

[Mattius92]

That will ONLY happen if the Tampa-Orlando line is successful, and then if the Orlando-Miami line is successful. Then J-ville would be next. Thats quite a lot of odds there.

[rainfrog]

the Orlando-Tampa line is lucrative

Ock - Can you and Stephen build an MetroORLANDO for Faye? Or better yet, MetroTAMPA???

MetroJacksonville.com could CARE LESS ABOUT HSR!!!!!

This attitude is part of why Jacksonville is so often left out of the game. I see a lot of benefit to acting like a united state... even if it is just an act. MetroFLORIDA!

[thelakelander]

^That's exactly why Jax is left out of the game.  For some reason we think we exist on an island and that events in other areas have no impact on us.  For those wanting federal assistance for other local stuff, the best way to hurt those efforts is for your State government to play bad politics with the entity you hope will give you money for your pet projects.

[tufsu1]

I hope I'm not the only that noticed the lines drawn on the plan pictured track most of the state... Not just 84 miles of suburbs. In fact it appears the Lakeland corridor wasn't included at all back in those days.

huh?  the 1988 map is virtually identical to the one now

[tufsu1]

the Orlando-Tampa line is lucrative

Ock - Can you and Stephen build an MetroORLANDO for Faye? Or better yet, MetroTAMPA???

MetroJacksonville.com could CARE LESS ABOUT HSR!!!!!

This attitude is part of why Jacksonville is so often left out of the game. I see a lot of benefit to acting like a united state... even if it is just an act. MetroFLORIDA!

+1000

I live here now and care about Jax. quite a bit...but what happens in Orlando, Tampa, Miami, and the rest of the state does matter....and is often quite relevant to issues here in Jax. (like commuter rail for one).

[Ocklawaha]

CONNEXION = THE FRENCH ENGLISH LANGUAGE NEWSPAPER
TGV lines may be axed to save cash
January 18, 2010

THE SNCF is looking to cut a number of cross-country TGV services by the end of this year to save money, it has emerged.

Les Echos reveals today that routes from Strasbourg to Nantes, Bordeaux and Lille are among those being carefully examined by rail bosses.

According to the paper, long-distance travel has been a cash cow for the SNCF for several years but a drop in profits is expected to be announced today, forcing the operator to "seriously look again at its economic model". Some lines could be axed entirely.

A source told the paper that about 20% of TGV services are loss-making, and there are fears this could rise to 30% in the coming year.

The news comes two months after the French national audit office, the Cour des Comptes, published a report looking at the viability of local TER services around France.
It found that a number of rural services were operating near-empty and it would be cheaper and more environmentally friendly to axe them and run buses instead.

SOURCE:  http://www.connexionfrance.com/sncf-tgv-services-axed-loss-making-train-strike-france-february-3-unions-11333-view-article.html

The logical argument actually is that private industry DOES see profitability in the HSR line as currently planned, something Republicans definitely do NOT want to acknowledge!!!!! So real bidding has to be avoided at all cost  

Reality, schmelity.

As America2050 said:

Central Florida also possesses a special attribute that distinguishes the region from almost every other: close to 50 million annual visitors to Central Florida destinations like Disney World.  If only 5 percent of these visitors take the high-speed rail line to connect from the airport to Disney World, they would meet the passenger estimates of 2.4 million for the entire Tampa-Orlando line in the first year of operation.

http://www.america2050.org/2011/01/why-and-how-floridas-high-speed-rail-line-must-be-built.html

5% of WHAT 50 MILLION PEOPLE FROM "THE AIRPORT TO DISNEY WORLD?" This is exactly the type of lies, smoke and mirrors that are laced all through the HSR APPLICATIONS. There is no 50 million going from the Orlando Airport to anywhere... Last years TOTAL PASSENGER COUNT WAS:

2010 Calendar Year Statistics:

    * International traffic increased 9.0 percent.
    * 2010 was a record year with 3,245,799 international travelers at Orlando International Airport. That represents an increase of 267,978 passengers over the previous record set in 2009.
    * Domestic travel increased 2.98 percent over 2009.
    * Domestic traffic totaled 31,632,100 for the year.
    * Combined passenger numbers for 2010: 34,877,899; up 3.51 percent.

34,877,899 million and that's TOTAL TRAFFIC both enplaning and deplaning passengers. So do the math, an average of only 50% of that number are arriving passengers. So while your parroting and posting these pie-in-the-sky deceptions Faye, the real arrival number is more like 17,438,949 and your 2.4 million passengers just plummeted to 871,947 ANNUAL PASSENGERS, which is 204,525 LESS THEN AMTRAK'S 1,076,472 Florida passengers in 2010 with 3 lousy trains (2 conventional + Auto-Train).

So whatcha gonna do Faye? Run 3 trains daily? While that will hold down costs it won't do much for your time saving flying train or the bottom line when we try and pay for this thing. Your numbers would be much more believable if they had come from anywhere but the FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL COMMISSION. Why are they trying to mislead people into believing this fantasy 50 million passengers from Orlando's Airport to Disney World?

Assuming that EVERY PASSENGER rode right through Disney and went all the way to Tampa's bus station, @ $35 dollars per ticket, that's barely $30 million dollars a year GROSS! Considering that railroads being extremely cash intensive usually have operating ratios of around 77.8% with a 9.79% return on equity. BUT THIS WAS ALL FREIGHT! Amtrak's operating ratio was a scary 155% last year which includes the HIGHER SPEED NORTHEAST CORRIDOR, and they're running on a Federal mandate that's as close to a free ride as anyone gets. One has to wonder how damaging these numbers will be when the reports start to come in on a weak HSR passenger link, propped up by government, and 100% responsible for it's own property, track, trains, signaling, stations and services etc...   

REFERENCE:
http://www.orlandoairports.net/press/2011/20110202.htm
http://www.amtrak.com/pdf/factsheets/FLORIDA10.pdf

THE ECONOMIST (LONDON)

High-speed railroading
America’s system of rail freight is the world’s best. High-speed passenger trains could ruin it

The Economist continues, correctly: “America’s railways are the mirror image of Europe’s. Europe has an impressive and growing network of high-speed passenger links, many of them international, like the Thalys service between Paris and Brussels or the Eurostar connecting London to the French and Belgian capitals. These are successfulâ€"although once the (off-balance-sheet) costs of building the tracks are counted, they need subsidies of billions of dollars a year. But, outside Germany and Switzerland, Europe’s freight rail services are a fragmented, loss-making mess. Repeated attempts to remove the technical and bureaucratic hurdles at national frontiers have come to nothing.”

In addition the freight railroads face a $15 billion bill for a new safety system to control trains on lines that also carry passengers or dangerous chemical cargoes. This system, Positive Train Control (PTC), is intended to stop or slow a train automatically if a driver goes too fast or passes a red signal. The bill to introduce PTC was signed by George Bush in 2008 only a month after a crash between a Metrolink commuter train and a Union Pacific freight train in California, causing 25 deaths and 135 injuries. The railway companies complain that only 3% of crashes are caused by the sort of human error that PTC is designed to avert and that claims that the system will improve efficiency on the network are unfounded. The railways are seeking tax breaks and other subsidies to reduce the cost of complying.

The emergence of express intercity rail services may cause the freight railways the biggest problem of all. The policy is not only laid down by the president but also often has enthusiastic support at state level. The railways can hardly oppose Mr Obama’s plan to boost high-speed rail, but they are apprehensive about what it will mean for them.

Return of regulation

The freight railroads have learned to live with the limited Amtrak passenger services on their tracks. Occasionally they moan that Amtrak pays only about a fifth of the real cost of this access. Some railmen calculate that this is equivalent to a subsidy of about $240m a year, on top of what Amtrak gets from the government. Freight-rail people regard this glumly as just part of the cost of doing business, but their spirits will hardly lift if the burden grows.

Their main complaint, however, is that one Amtrak passenger train at 110mph will remove the capacity to run six freight trains in any corridor. Nor do they believe claims that PTC, due to be in use by 2015, will increase capacity by allowing trains to run closer together in safety. So it will cost billions to adapt and upgrade the lines to accommodate both a big rise in freight traffic and an unprecedented burgeoning of intercity passenger services. Indeed, some of the money that the White House has earmarked will go on sidings where freight trains can be parked while intercity expresses speed by.

Federal and state grants will flow to the freight railroads to help them upgrade their lines for more and faster passenger trains. But already rows are breaking out over the strict guidelines the FRA will lay down about operations on the upgraded lines, such as guarantees of on-time performance with draconian penalties if they are breached and the payment of indemnities for accidents involving passenger trains. The railroads are also concerned that the federal government will be the final arbiter of how new capacity created with the federal funds will be allocated between passenger and freight traffic. And they are annoyed that there was little consultation before these rules were published.

There have been some heated meetings between freight-railroad managers and FRA officials. Henry Posner III, chairman of Iowa Interstate Railroad, ruefully notes that freight railroads, in the form of passengers and regulation, “are getting back things that caused trouble”.

What this aspect of the argument boils down to is the Railroads KNOW that they will get the 95% increased capacity disguised as a problem called HIGH SPEED RAIL. ...WE MUST GET THIS RIGHT! Reality, schmelity.
OCK

OCKLAWAHA

[spuwho]

spuwho, thanks for joining the conversation.

I'm afraid it is quite the other way around though.

It's not that we have to worry about these 8 consortiums going bankrupt........after all. many of them have been functioning just fine for decades without any US help. Rather these consortiums want to be sure that continued federal resources are there to keep building on further US services.


The funding source is the Highway Trust Fund, with approximate funds of $52 billion a year. Allocating a portion of highway funds for rail construction is an equitable way to wean drivers away from auto travel by providing them with a faster, safer, and more environmentally sound alternative.

Congress could easily allot $5 billion a year for HSR construction â€" without an increase in the gas tax â€" by cutting out earmarks and formula-based grants that now soak up billions of dollars, according to the General Accountability Office (GAO).

Such fund reallocations could not only jumpstart HSR projects but serve as seed money for public-private partnerships to get the work done.

Already, international rail operators have expressed interest in competing for high-speed train contracts in the U.S. But these groups are waiting for the Obama administration to lay out a comprehensive financing plan before structuring bids.

The use of a well-established and reliable source of transportation financing could make these deals happen.

http://www.progressivefix.com/a-smart-way-to-finance-high-speed-rail-restructuring-the-highway-trust-fund-into-a-results-driven-transportation-fund

BTW why would you think we would have private American companies willing and able to get HSR done.........we simply haven't built the expertise to do this given the anti-rail attitude that is still being fueled in the US.

Let's see what happens when gas hits $5 per gallon in the summer, but the US is so behind the curve on this, that I'm afraid foreign train builders have already cornered the market!

Lack of forward vision is America's #1 problem.

Glad to join Faye.

First, based on the current funding formula, where the Feds earmark funds and leave the states to carry the rest, is a recipe for operator bankruptcy. This doesn't occur in Europe because there is a long term funding formula to support rail. VAT on fuels is significantly higher there due to this.  Without an overall plan (like a HTF) and treating HSR with these yearly earmarks makes the process much to political and subject to whims. Intent is good, methods are not.

I think everyone agrees that the future of passenger rail support is based on some form of revenue redirection. Amtrak works this way through the TEA programs and other sources. So we do have a domestic history and experience.

Most of the objections I have seen here on MJ or in the press haven't been blanket, but more critical of the process and methods. So I don't think it's an total "anti-rail" argument being made in all cases.

While I would agree that some vision is required for a project such as this, some are critical of the execution because the process as it is right now is broken, if anything incomplete.

While HSR is desirable and I agree with you Faye it should be pursued, but under the current funding model and planning process ( as Ock has clearly laid out) it is not sustainable.

[FayeforCure]

the Orlando-Tampa line is lucrative

Ock - Can you and Stephen build an MetroORLANDO for Faye? Or better yet, MetroTAMPA???

MetroJacksonville.com could CARE LESS ABOUT HSR!!!!!

This attitude is part of why Jacksonville is so often left out of the game. I see a lot of benefit to acting like a united state... even if it is just an act. MetroFLORIDA!

+1000

I live here now and care about Jax. quite a bit...but what happens in Orlando, Tampa, Miami, and the rest of the state does matter....and is often quite relevant to issues here in Jax. (like commuter rail for one).

What is so sad is that HSR got nixed by one man for purely selfish political reasons. Fortunately many Florida leaders are calling Scott out on his reckless behavior, while working out a plan to receive the monies without state involvement:

A better approach would be the creation, by the federal government, of a Central Florida MPO to handle the federal money and oversee the project. The regional agency could grow to include Miami, and later Jacksonville, as the line expands.

By then, if the fast trains perform as expected, state politics would allow the state rail agency to assume control. If the trains flop, as Scott predicts, it would be a federal problem.

Federal transportation officials, facing deadlines of their own, are willing to wait until Friday to give Florida time to come up with a new plan. A bipartisan group, including U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor, U.S. Rep. John Mica, the pro-business Tampa Bay Partnership, the Central Florida Partnership, and local and state leaders from Tampa, Lakeland and Orlando, along with a majority of the state Senate, are in a desperate dash to salvage the project.

It's time well-spent. Five days divided by $2.4 billion is $20 million an hour.

It is frustrating that after so many years of planning, everything depends on the outcome of a chase scene, a climax only a Hollywood film director could love.

Scott's reaction this week will show if he is more interested in his state's welfare or in taking a high-profile jab at President Barack Obama at the state's expense.

and a direct appeal to Scott:

Scott's administration has the power to sabotage almost any solution that attempts an end-run around him.

We urge him to signal a willingness to stand aside. Please, Gov. Scott, get government out of the way of creating jobs and restoring economic growth.

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2011/feb/20/VWOPINO1-let-region-build-train/


Even The Economist acknowledges Scott's purely selfish political motives at the expense of the state of Florida

Mr Scott could have some deeply held, high-minded policy objection to the Tampa-Orlando line. But it seems a lot more likely that he is simply following the lead of other newly elected Republican governors around the country. Ohio's John Kasich and Wisconsin's Scott Walker dramatically raised their national profiles by sticking a thumb in the eye of the Obama administration and rejecting rail money targeted for their states.

So far, Mr Scott's move seems to be earning him the same kind of pressâ€"and the same sort of credibility with the GOP's conservative base. Now some in the media are even talking about Mr Scott as a potential presidential candidate in 2012. That could be just what the governor wanted out of this.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2011/02/high-speed_rail_florida