How To Spot The Next Hot Neighborhood

[peestandingup]

I hear your points, and I have some of the answers already (to many of my questions) as do many of us.  I am just trying to paint a realistic/honest/non-sugarcoated picture of development in Jacksonville.  Berkman, Strand, and Peninsula did nothing for our city, yet all received public incentives.  Brooklyn Park?  I don't have all the details and most likely only the development firm does, but it failed here.  Nothing is happening in Jacksonville.  It's not 100% because we don't have a future streetcar or current streetcar/LRT; there are other reasons that we are failing.

I'm so mad that Jacksonville has over 11% unemployment when we should have below 10% given our economy and what we have going for it.  Our city is currently pathetic, no offense to it.  I know that we are the fire under the feet for our city leaders (meaning MetroJacksonville), and 99% of the time I am promoting and defending Jacksonville.  I have gone from 110% optimistic to 110% depressed about the situation in literally 2 weeks.  Mood swing?  hahah it could be!  Unfortunately, reality is setting in with me.  We have Mt. Everest to climb, and we don't have an oxygen tank to assist us.  I hope we don't die on the way.

I've read all those articles you posted, and they are great!  Our city should pay more attention.  Unfortunately, I get the gist that it half-heartedly does.  I see some progress, but progress that we make in Jax is worthless without some of the most vital components necessary.  All we need is one visionary.  Charlotte had one guy (who got demonized unfortunately for his role at BofA).  Most places just have 1-2-3 people who drive everything.  Jacksonville still has nobody, yet we have so much we could take advantage of.

Hot neighborhoods?  With all of the press Avondale and Springfield have received recently, one would think they would just begin to explode!  Nope.  Fat chance.  I used to be proud of these neighborhoods, until I got really involved in other cities and started traveling beyond restaurants and tourist traps.  We hardly have anything super unique!  Press?  I think other organizations thought they could be a huge help to what they saw as potential.  Fat chance.  We have stuff going on, but come on.  Preservation of single family homes needs to take a back seat to new development until we get something going on.

We screwed LaVilla and Brooklyn too much.  They are too desolate to be attractive to real, quality development.  They are like deserts with trees and parking lots.  Not a lot of potential until we hit downtown, Springfield, San Marco, and Riverside.  Unfortunately Springfield, Downtown, and Riverside have way too much red tape.  The economy doesn't help, but how the hell is Jacksonville's economy so bad when we are the most diverse economy in Florida by far!

We are about to lose some big ticket items in this city.  Short list?  Fabio Mecchetti, Wayne Weaver, Preston Haskell won't be around forever, I don't want to call too many people out, but there are a lot of people getting OLD or flat out leaving.  I can think of two people in the same league who have risen to the occasion, but they face quite a battle with our uneducated population, and people like Redman, Crescimbini, Yarborough, Brinton, and so many others who we all know hold our city back.

I have to end my rant, but it's time we got mad at how poorly our city is performing and we have to quit relying on "being in Florida" for our growth.  That will not help us anymore.  We have a diverse economy that we do jack **** about.  We have basically everything we need right at our fingertips.  We can no longer hold out for things, be picky, act like idiots, discourage change, or tout ultra low taxes as an attraction for business (if it was a real attraction, we'd have a lot more business).

I feel where you're coming from. It's tough being in a city that has so much potential & so much history fall victim to crappy leadership for so long, poor planning & most of its residents seeming like they couldn't care less. It's especially hard if you've lived around, travel a lot & even just read this blog comparing other cities & their own development & progression, all the while we're permanently stuck in 1st gear it would seem.

I can tell you now that it's the primary reason my wife & I are probably going to end up leaving Jax this summer & moving on. I mean, we do like it here & are def rooting for it, but damn. Four years of being here & all we basically have is still a lot of talk, while we watch other (sometimes WAY smaller) towns getting it together. It's frustrating as hell.

The point is, we're so behind here in all of these regards that it's gonna take probably decades to get up to snuff, especially when considering the economic struggles of everything nowadays. So that's a long time to sit by the sidelines & watch your years pass by while you wait for some dumb ass Joe Bob city leaders to pull their heads from their asses. Like I said, we like Jax a lot, but this is our lives & we only get one.

[thelakelander]

$300 million figure was just something I pulled out of my butt.  I know a 2-3 mile starter streetcar line would cost under $100M.  Connecting the shops of Avondale, King St, 5 Points, Springfield, downtown, the sports district, San Marco, and perhaps a couple other areas could easily cost over $300M.

You should be able to do a decent streetcar line in public ROW for around $10 million/mile.  If it cost you over that, you're throwing extra money away (ex. streetscapes, expensive landscaping, 100% double tracking, etc.).  With the skyway already in place, all you really need is about 5 - 10 miles of track to tie your urban neighborhoods together.  

Also, I know about federal funding.  I know about public transit funding.  The taxpayer will still feel like he is footing the bill, even if he is footing 10% of the bill.  The total figure is what matters to the public.  Billions, even hundreds of millions of dollars scares the public, usually.

The creative play here is mobility fee funding.  We may actually be the first muncipality in the US to pull something off like this.  I'll reply to your other post later today.

[dougskiles]

All we need is one visionary.  Charlotte had one guy (who got demonized unfortunately for his role at BofA).  Most places just have 1-2-3 people who drive everything.  Jacksonville still has nobody, yet we have so much we could take advantage of.

I disagree.  It is not one person it is thousands of people all working together.  We don't need a savior, we need everyday people to step up and do just a little bit more.  There are things around us everywhere that can be done.  And it's contagious.  You may see in other cities one or two people leading the show, but trust me, it is not just them doing all the work.  They are just the ones who rose to the top because of their leadership ability.  The backbone is the average person who is fed up with the status quo.

We are about to lose some big ticket items in this city.  Short list?  Fabio Mecchetti, Wayne Weaver, Preston Haskell won't be around forever, I don't want to call too many people out, but there are a lot of people getting OLD or flat out leaving.

By the same logic, we are also losing some of the high-powered negative forces, too.  That some of those people are tightening their grip is evidence that they are losing it.  There is an increasing leadership vacuum in Jacksonville setting the stage for the next generation to step up.  So I say step up!  Keep applying the pressure!

[simms3]

^^^^When I say visionary, I'm talking either someone with lots of political power or lots of money that wants the same as the grassroots organization.  If we had a Brian Moynihan here in Jacksonville, posting here on MetroJax and basically yelling at city hall to do what's necessary, speaking to the people/educating them through press conference and meeting after press conference (b/c he can afford it), and lastly throwing money at big and small projects himself, we would be lightyears ahead of where we are.

Charlotte had tons of littletons like us clamoring for a better Uptown and public transit.  Then big wig Brian Moynihan, CEO of BofA, came along and agreed with the people and made sure it happened.  Uptown is what it is today and LYNX exists basically because Moynihan gave the grassroots organizations standing, money, and a voice.  Wachovia/Wells, Duke Energy, and all the other companies then had to follow suit so that they could enjoy some participation and credit with the rebirth of Uptown.

Jacksonville does not have anybody like this.  John Mica is actually our best hope because he wields huge political power and he champions much of what we are for here.

[simms3]

^^^^Also, the leaders I mentioned have done the most for this city in the past decade.  Ask yourself this: would Jacksonville be better off without Weaver, Haskell, Mechetti, Lovett (Betsy), etc etc.  I see Robert Clements and Tom Petway stepping up (the latter also getting kind of old).  Of our F500 companies, I don't see those executives doing much to improve our city.

We need people to help put us/keep us on the map, and to bring us to the attention of Washington politicians and New York financiers.  This is what we struggle with because we are an invisible town that has benefited from being in Florida and having the military and a diverse economy.  Our military presence here is potentially downsizing soon before we get the carrier as far away as 2019.  Our economy, for being so diverse, is one of the worst in the country.  Being in Florida will no longer benefit us.

[simms3]

Portland, Seattle, and Dallas all have private big wig visionaries.  You and I will just have to disagree here.  Having looked into and even studying certain people in a class I took in city planning, they can make a huge difference.  My opinion on the matter will not change.

[simms3]

Oh believe me, I'm not calling them visionaries (the ones here).  A couple have the potential to be visionaries, but aren't.  What I'm saying is these guys have given a lot of their time/money to causes, foundations, and cultural venues in the city, and to higher education and to high schools.  Some of them have kept their companies downtown (Rob Clements rehabbed a building downtown before he built a new one on Riverside Ave and tried to keep it as urban as possible).  None of these guys wield as much power/influence or are close to as visionary as some of the private leaders that Dallas, Seattle, and Portland have.

Bill Foley?  He could be the most powerful guy in Jax, and sure he brought 2 F500 companies here and employs so many people, but he is not in the Jacksonville game at all.  I'm just pointing out we need a big wig.  I love this website and my little self tries to contribute what I can, but I'll be damned if we can attract the attention of Washington and New York to get big things popping in our city.  We would never have gotten the Jags (and as a result put on the map) without Wayne Weaver.  All I'm saying is that those we do have are pretty much the only guys with connections to Washington and New York, and many of them are getting old and starting to sit back.

[simms3]

Portland, Seattle, and Dallas all have private big wig visionaries.  You and I will just have to disagree here.  Having looked into and even studying certain people in a class I took in city planning, they can make a huge difference.  My opinion on the matter will not change.

Well you are entitled to be as wrong about it as you would like to be.  Having lived in those cities, engaged in the study of redevelopment and city planning in all three, I can tell you for certain that grass roots is what created the impetus and the passion for vast improvements in their quality of life.

Ok, I'm sure it was the grass roots alone that gathered all the public support and found financing for all the great projects in those cities and got the eye of federal agencies for funding and got the eye of SF and NYC investors, etc etc.  I guess I'm completely wrong.  Why can't grass roots and the big visionaries WORK TOGETHER?  That's what happens in those cities.  It's not just the grass roots organizations just like it's not just the big wigs.  It takes both working together.  All I'm saying is here in Jax we have one of the best grass roots organizations and no big wig visionaries to help implement our ideas.  Those cities do.  Those cities are also a lot richer with more corporations and more people than Jax.

[simms3]

Fair enough.

[dougskiles]

There is only one thing that you can control in all of this and that is what YOU decide to do about it.  No sense complaining about what the big-wigs are or are not doing, just keep the focus on what you can do.  Sooner or later, someone comes along with the financial resources to do big things and sees the energy and vision of the local grassroots movement and decides they want to get on board.  Most likely because they see a financial opportunity.  I much prefer for Jacksonville's renewal do be driven by grassroots than a few deep pockets who can steer it whichever way they choose for their own gain.  It will be more long lasting and more beneficial for the most people.

To quote from Richard Florida's book, The Great Reset:

While Pittsburgh’s government and business leaders pressed for big-government solutions â€" new stadiums and convention centers â€" the city’s real turn-around was driven by community groups and citizen-led initiatives.  Community groups, local foundations, and nonprofits â€" not city hall or business-led economic development groups â€" drove its transformation, playing a key role in stabilizing and strengthening neighborhoods, building green, and spurring the development of the waterfront and redevelopment around the universities.

[dougskiles]

Thats why this next mayor is so important to us I think.  

Who do you believe, of the candidates in this race, is the best person for this?  Or can you say at this time?

[dougskiles]

Thank you.  That was exactlly the kind of insightful response I was hoping for.  Everyone talks about how brilliant Rick is, and I guess my biggest concern with people like him is the tendency to ultimately only listen to the ideas in their own head.  Like we've been discussing, a true lasting transformation is the result of the larger community effort.  Will Rick be able to influence JTA, JEA, the school board and all of the neighborhood & community groups like Audrey will?  I don't know him well enough to answer that question.  But from what I know of Audrey, she will do exactly that.

I have always held the opinion that the greatest leaders are the ones who can surround themselves with the most talented people working toward a common goal.  It doesn't work as well in reverse.

[letters and numbers]

Hey I heard that the "smart money" is on hogan because moran and mullanhey voters will cancel another out. maybe the best thing is for one of those two to drop out so they don't split the vote!

[simms3]

Don't know anything about Elwood Hopkins.  Had to look him up, but he seems like he is on the ball.  There are so many people out there with different thoughts, though.  Also, thanks for your reply on the mayoral candidates.  Just watching them on video clips and reading about them made it hard for me to get a clear picture.  Your response definitely distinguishes them for me.  I can identify with Mullaney's style and I do like his tentative ideas, but it seems like Moran is more personable.  I already knew I didn't want Hogan for mayor.  Hmmmm, this will be hard.

[thelakelander]

I hear your points, and I have some of the answers already (to many of my questions) as do many of us.  I am just trying to paint a realistic/honest/non-sugarcoated picture of development in Jacksonville.  Berkman, Strand, and Peninsula did nothing for our city, yet all received public incentives.  Brooklyn Park?  I don't have all the details and most likely only the development firm does, but it failed here.

I'm about as realistic and blunt as a person you'll ever find.  So when I speak about this topic, there's no sugarcoating.  Brooklyn Park failed because the entire market went south.  They were left standing when when our real estate bubble game of musical chairs ended.

Nothing is happening in Jacksonville.  It's not 100% because we don't have a future streetcar or current streetcar/LRT; there are other reasons that we are failing.  I'm so mad that Jacksonville has over 11% unemployment when we should have below 10% given our economy and what we have going for it.  Our city is currently pathetic, no offense to it.  I know that we are the fire under the feet for our city leaders (meaning MetroJacksonville), and 99% of the time I am promoting and defending Jacksonville.  I have gone from 110% optimistic to 110% depressed about the situation in literally 2 weeks.  Mood swing?  hahah it could be!  Unfortunately, reality is setting in with me.  We have Mt. Everest to climb, and we don't have an oxygen tank to assist us.  I hope we don't die on the way.

No doubt, Jax missed the urban development explosion of the last decade.  Unfortnately, there may never be one like it again.  My view is a little different from yours because I'm not from Jax.  Upon moving here in 2003, I already knew and accepted that the city was about a decade behind its peers, in terms of its view and vision on the importance of urban and sustainable development.  With that in mind, all you can do is choose to accept things the way they are or work hard to change them and close the gap.  After making a personal decision to work hard to change our city, I believe that what is not happening in forms of infill construction right now is happening in the form of changing public policy regarding land use, transportation and the creation of a funding mechanism to change development patterns.  

I've read all those articles you posted, and they are great!  Our city should pay more attention.  Unfortunately, I get the gist that it half-heartedly does.  I see some progress, but progress that we make in Jax is worthless without some of the most vital components necessary.  All we need is one visionary.  Charlotte had one guy (who got demonized unfortunately for his role at BofA).  Most places just have 1-2-3 people who drive everything.  Jacksonville still has nobody, yet we have so much we could take advantage of.

We have lots of visionaries that have been working to turn things around.  One is this city's current planning director.  Without him in that position, there would be no talk of a mobility fee/plan and the city's land use regulations would not have been modified to now allow the type of development in your images that we missed out on the last decade.

Hot neighborhoods?  With all of the press Avondale and Springfield have received recently, one would think they would just begin to explode!  Nope.  Fat chance.  I used to be proud of these neighborhoods, until I got really involved in other cities and started traveling beyond restaurants and tourist traps.  We hardly have anything super unique!  Press?  I think other organizations thought they could be a huge help to what they saw as potential.  Fat chance.  We have stuff going on, but come on.  Preservation of single family homes needs to take a back seat to new development until we get something going on.

We screwed LaVilla and Brooklyn too much.  They are too desolate to be attractive to real, quality development.  They are like deserts with trees and parking lots.  Not a lot of potential until we hit downtown, Springfield, San Marco, and Riverside.  Unfortunately Springfield, Downtown, and Riverside have way too much red tape.  The economy doesn't help, but how the hell is Jacksonville's economy so bad when we are the most diverse economy in Florida by far!

Imo, you're way off base on the potential of places you believe are far too gone to ever have the chance of becoming a hot neighborhood.  From experience, these are the exact types of places that tend to boom all of a sudden when the right public policy and investment is put in place.  Riverside/Avondale can't become the next up and coming hot neighborhood.  Its been hot and established for decades already.  Detroit's Brush Park, DC's Columbia Heights, Charlotte's South End and Tampa's Channel District are all examples of places that were worse off than Brooklyn and LaVilla when they made their comebacks.  All you need to do to fuel a comeback is to invest in public policy and infrastructure that makes it worthwhile for the private sector to believe in their long term stability.