Storm names
The following names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2010.
* Alex
* Bonnie
* Colin
* Danielle
* Earl
* Fiona
* Gaston
* Hermine
* Igor
* Julia
* Karl
* Lisa
* Matthew
* Nicole
* Otto
* Paula
* Richard
* Shary
* Tomas
* Virginie
* Walter
Philip J. Klotzbach's team at Colorado State University (formerly led by William M. Gray) defined the average number of storms per season (1950 to 2000) as 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, 2.3 major hurricanes (storms reaching at least Category 3 strength in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) and ACE Index 96.1. [1] NOAA defines a season as above-normal, near-normal or below-normal by a combination of the number of named storms, the number reaching hurricane strength, the number reaching major hurricane strength and ACE Index.
On December 9, 2009, Klotzbach's team issued their first extended-range forecast for the 2010 season, predicting average to above-average activity (11 to 16 named storms, 6 to 8 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher and ACE Index of 100-162), citing that the 2009-10 El Niño event is likely to dissipate by the start of the season.
They just announced 0'10 will be more active.
Quote from: OREN YANIV
DAILY NEWS STAFF WRITERThe brutal winter is making way for massive hurricanes.
The 2010 hurricane season will be more active than the previous year with higher-than-normal threats to the U.S. coastline, according to early forecasts by AccuWeather.com meteorologists.
"This year has the chance to be an extreme season," said chief forecaster Joe Bastardi. "There will be a lot more impact on the United States' shore."
He projected that seven storms will hit American land, five of which will be hurricanes - and two or three could be major.
He called for a total of 16 to 18 named storms - as many as double the nine storms during the 2009 season.
We die?
Just as a side note, the tropical system off Brazil is the first one since Catalina, in 2004. We all know what happened that year. Not saying, but that season was also an exiting El Nino.
I'm not liking this fact either as I remember 03 were an extremely wet winter as well...
Quote from: NOAA
NOAA’s State of the Climate report for the winter season and the month of February state that temperatures were below normal for the contiguous United States. The winter season was wetter than normal...
Haven't NOAA been predicting active hurricane seasons since 2006 and they have been wrong every year. 2005 was the last time they were correct
Storms build due to heat of ocean,if we got colder year then it takes longer to heat up and that means less chance for hurricanes to develop.
I say we will have below average number of storms or they might be active out in Atlantic.
Quote
Early Predictions for 2010 Huricane Season
As we move further into the year 2010, hurricane predictors are turning their attention to the 2010 hurricane season. While the utility of long-range hurricane forecasts is debatable, weather experts continue to publish them.
At the University of Miami, Professor of Meteorology Ben Kirtman is looking into the relationship between the positioning of El Nino and the severity of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. According to Kirtman, in 2009 El Nino was located just offshore of the South Ameircan coast, which led to a mild hurricane season. In contrast, under Kirtman's theory, if El Nino moves furher off the South American coast then it will not protect the U.S. coastlines and may support the formation of more and stronger storms.
One of the most eagerly anticipated forecasts comes from Dr. William Gray and Dr. Phillip Klotzbach of Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project. Issued on December 9, 2009, their initial forecast calls for a busier 2010 season than in 2009. 6 For the first time, they are predicting a range in the numbers of storms rather than a single number. They expect 11 â€" 16 named storms, 6 â€" 8 hurricanes, and 3 â€" 5 major hurricanes. 7 On April 7, 2010, June 2, 2010, and August 4, 2010, the CSU team will adjust this long-range forecast as the weather conditions become clearer. 8 In their early forecast for 2009, Drs. Gray and Klotzbach over-estimated actual the number of hurricanes that formed.
Accuweather.com released its early hurricane season forecast on March 12, 2010. According to Chief Long-Range Meteorologist and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, the 2010 hurricane season will be busier than the 2009 season. Bastardi predicts that the 2010 season will bring 15 tropical storms and 5 hurricanes. He expects 2 or 3 hurricanes to make major landfall in the U.S. The Accuweather.com forecast is based on a weakening El Nino, warmer ocean temperatures, weakening trade winds, and higher humidity levels than in 2009.
NOAA will issue its initial forecast for the 2010 season on May of 2010.
Earlier Warnings Issued This Year
The U.S. National Hurricane Center will announce storm watches and warnings 12 hours earlier than in previous hurricane seasons. The earlier lead time will give those living in coastal areas more time to prepare and evacuate. Officials can give more advance warnings and watches because of advances in tracking storms and forecasting their projected paths.
Looking Back to 2009
The 2009 hurricane season for the Atlantic Basic will close on November 30, 2009. There were two tropical depressions, six tropical storms, and three hurricanes. The hurricanes were Hurricane Bill (active Aug. 15-24), Hurricane Fred (active Sept. 7-12), and Hurricane Ida (active Nov. 4-9). The only two storms to strike the United States were Tropical Storm Claudette and Hurricane Ida.
The mild season can be attributed to El Nino conditions over the Pacific Ocean. El Nino produces warm Pacific waters and upper level winds that discourage conditions favorable to hurricane formation. Cooler waters in the Atlantic Ocean also inhibited hurricane formation. The 2009 season was the mildest on record since 1997.
The potential danger of a mild hurricane season is that people in storm-prone areas may become complacent because they expect the next season to be just as uneventful. Hurricanes depend on weather conditions both near and far from where the storms hit. Because weather conditions will continue to change constantly, the immediate past hurricane record cannot be relied upon as a prediction for the next season.
Prior Incidents
Although hurricane forecasting is becoming more accurate, there is no computer model or formula to tell how many hurricanes will strike land during a particular season and how many of those which make landfall will be severe. For example, the 2004 season was devastating, with four severe hurricanes striking the U.S. causing loss of life and major property damage. In contrast, the 2009 season was relatively uneventful. The deadliest hurricane on record is the storm that struck and destroyed Galveston in 1901. Hurricane Katrina was the costliest hurricane, causing over $81 billion in damages.
Loss of life is the primary concern when a hurricane strikes. The death toll from a hurricane season depends on how many strong storms made landfall, the vulnerability of the affected area, and the level of preparedness. An estimated 750 individuals died during the 2008 hurricane season. 20 Pre-positioned medical supplies allow the injured to be treated more quickly when a hurricane is over. Preparedness and early response reduce the severity of injuries and the likelihood of fatalities.
Yey!
Quote from: Marsh
NEW YORK, Apr 07, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Earlier today, Colorado State University's (CSU) Department of Atmospheric Science issued an updated forecast of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. In 2010, CSU predicts an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, and anticipates an above-average probability that major hurricanes will hit land in the U.S. and Caribbean. CSU's forecast is consistent with other 2010 forecasts.
Approximately 70 percent of the U.S. population lives within 50 miles of a coastline. This population, as well as a significant number of physical assets, is exposed to risks associated with hurricanes and other named storms. At-risk industries include commercial real estate, hospitality, and public entities. (The energy industry is also vulnerable, but has managed prior catastrophes, such as Hurricane Ike, relatively well.)
Recent events--flooding in the northeast and earthquakes around the world--remind us that natural catastrophes have a compound effect on the property insurance market, affecting available capacity and pricing. It is prudent for risk managers to evaluate their exposures, measure potential losses, and take a number of pre- and post-loss measures to minimize a catastrophe's impact on their business, their suppliers, and their customers.
Specifically, Marsh recommends the following:
Pre-Loss Measures
-- Conduct catastrophe modeling, to evaluate potential financial losses.
-- Ensure proper compliance with building codes.
-- Develop and regularly update business continuity and disaster recovery plans and procedures.
-- Review supply chain management procedures to understand and minimize exposures related to suppliers.
-- Develop properly worded and tested claims procedures.
Post-Loss Measures
-- Arrange forensic accounting services to measure losses and prepare the financial metrics necessary to file a claim.
-- Secure the assistance of a claims advocate from an agent or broker to prepare and manage the presentation of claims to underwriters.
-- Secure preferred contractors to assist in necessary repairs following an event.
About Marsh
Marsh, the world's leading insurance broker and risk advisor, has over 23,000 employees and provides advice and transactional capabilities to clients in over 100 countries. Marsh is a unit of Marsh & McLennan Companies (MMC), a global professional services firm with approximately 52,000 employees and annual revenue exceeding $10 billion. MMC also is the parent company of Guy Carpenter, the risk and reinsurance specialist; Kroll, the risk consulting firm; Mercer, the provider of HR and related financial advice and services; and Oliver Wyman, the management consultancy. MMC's stock (ticker symbol: MMC) is listed on the New York, Chicago and London stock exchanges. MMC's Web Site is www.mmc.com. Marsh's Web site is www.marsh.com.
Get your picks for the 1st hurricane of the 2010 Season.
I'm on:
July 21, 2010 Alex
Yay, we're on the revised 2004 list.
Revised as in retired names have been replaced.
Quote from: Bostech on March 13, 2010, 04:24:22 PM
Storms build due to heat of ocean,if we got colder year then it takes longer to heat up and that means less chance for hurricanes to develop.
I say we will have below average number of storms or they might be active out in Atlantic.
No if the weather is colder it's worse unless it is warmer then it's worse. :D
Current sea surface temp anomalies have surpassed those of 2005, if that says anything.
Anomalies in which direction? I remember in 04 and 05 there was a lot of flooding in the north east. I'm wondering if there is any correlation between warm sea surface temp and rain in the north east? I think 010 is going to very active and if you read above, the Prof. thinks so too.
Quote from: samiam on March 13, 2010, 11:42:13 AM
Haven't NOAA been predicting active hurricane seasons since 2006 and they have been wrong every year. 2005 was the last time they were correct
Yes they have!! They have been wrong every time. We havent had an active season until 2005.
Says who? I thought it was active just non had made a US landfall.
Gentlemen.............I donno about yall, but I plan worse case scenerio for every year! Went through Camille on a 40 footer............not alot of fun and have been involved in hurricane recovery work over the last 15 years plus! Either way, I try and cover my fanny and if it doesn't happen great, but if it does..........the kid and Co. boogee! gatorback active is usually considered number of storms eight to ten plus, it only starts counting when they make landfall in the US somewhere!
We here in The Florida Keys really would like to keep the "H" word away until June 1, 2010. ;) ::)
Normally, I'm really excited about the new season, but I'm not this year. I'm really concerned. They have to get the oil spill cleaned up because a storm will push all that oil ashore and I've never seen such an aggressive forecast before. We have el nino ending and record sea surface temperatures. I wonder what the COJ doing differently this year to prepare given this information?
Quote from: gatorback on May 05, 2010, 04:25:22 PM
Get your picks for the 1st hurricane of the 2010 Season.
I'm on:
July 21, 2010 Alex
I completely missed the mark this year. I don't think Alex arriving in June is a good sign.
Yay! Finally a reason to turn off 24/7 oil spill and on The Weather Channel.
80% chance Bonnie will develop. Wow, isn't that something?
And then it didn't. Depression Two petered out within a couple of days.
Still mostly quiet.
We'll see how the rest of the month plays out.
so far so boring! maybe august and september will ramp up!
we want boring, we and the gulf does not need an Hurricane.
Seriously. This hurricane hysteria is like rooting for your neighbors house to catch fire :-\
i was only intending to say that there has been soooo much media hype about how active the season will be and so far it is quiet.
We could at least have one hit a few hours south...that way you can chase it, get your thills (if that's your thing) and come back home to electricity and running water.
Quote from: fsujax on July 15, 2010, 03:49:20 PM
i was only intending to say that there has been soooo much media hype about how active the season will be and so far it is quiet.
remember 2004?
Nuf said.
well, we will see!!
Quote from: fsujax on July 15, 2010, 04:00:06 PM
well, we will see!!
yep, but things are chaning in the Atlantic and we're likely going to see the gates open over the next week or so for the African wave train.
Oh heavens, is it time to start watching the Cape Verde region again? My question is:
why would dust suppress convection in this region?
http://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1279339661-HATT20US.TXT.html.en
I watch daily. It seems every wave coming off the coast of Africa dies out as soon as it gets over the Atlantic. The water temp is not particularly high, but neither is it cool.
There hasn't been a prevailing high in the region either. Still hoping for some nice storms to form that can bring some sizable surf!
Just goes to show that man still doesn't know crap about nature, and is sometimes too arrogant to think that he does.
Quote from: gatorback on July 16, 2010, 11:25:08 PM
Oh heavens, is it time to start watching the Cape Verde region again? My question is:
why would dust suppress convection in this region?
http://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1279339661-HATT20US.TXT.html.en
The Saharan dust plumes are nothing but dry, stable air and any tropical wave that rune into it is almost assured a quick death.
It is also still early in the season, especially the CV season which ramps up in early August and goes to mid-September. People keep thinking this season is going to bust, well, we're only about 20% through the cycle and we all saw how quick things can change in August and we all know his name, Charley. Plus, some people harp on numbers, well, 1992 proved it only takes one and we're done.
You are right, the atmosphere and the ocean conditions are in shape for a busy August/Sept/Oct/Nov. In fact, we have several tropical waves currently and hopefully, none of them will turn into Bonnie. The one around the lesser Antilles is getting better organized; however, looks pretty big.
I just reread Andrew on Wikipedia. Interesting...
We do not want to see any storms come anywhere near anyone. Please keep them away from Key West and the Florida keys.. ::) ::) ::)
The disturbance near the Bahamas is now a tropical depression and is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm by tomorrow. The forecast path is straight through Keys and the Gulf. Looks like it's expected to move pretty fast, though.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl#contents)
Tropical Storm Bonnie is born! I'm so happy. The storm is huge. Get ready keywest.
sure wish we could get some rain....but it seems to be too far south. :-(
The rain would hurt my feelings at all .
Waste of a name unless she annihilates New Orleans. ;)
I remember another year that started with Bonnie...to be followed by Charlie, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne.
He was CHARLEY!
Sorry, I get defensive about my favorite hurricane.
Ivan(the retard) was the most hurricane challenged storm ever. Didn't he make 2 or 3 u-turns in North East Georgia? I mean really, who turns around in GA? I'll check Ivan's track...but, I think Ivan made it back to to the gulf--from Athens!
Hahah--worse then I thought!
(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d1/Ivan2004filledrainblk.gif)
The Bermuda High kept the remnants of Ivan from moving into the Atlantic, and he had only one place to go, down the ridge.
How often does that happen? Once every 500 years?
Quote from: gatorback on July 22, 2010, 11:21:58 PM
How often does that happen? Once every 500 years?
I have no clue, and it is too late for me to try that research, lol.
I think Ivan is my favorite storm. The reason is because he set the standard for unpredictable:
Records
Ivan as a Category 3 hurricane east of the Windwards on September 5, 2004.
Ivan set several new records for intensity at low latitudes. When Ivan first became a Category 3 hurricane on September 3 (1800 UTC), it was centered near 10.2 degrees north. This is the most southerly location on record for a major hurricane in the Atlantic basin.[1] Just six hours later, Ivan also became the most southerly Category 4 hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin when it reached that intensity while located at 10.6 degrees north.[6] Finally, at midnight (UTC) on September 9 while centered at 13.7 degrees north, Ivan became the most southerly Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin.[6] Hurricane Felix nearly matched this record in 2007, becoming a Category 5 hurricane at 13.8 degrees north latitude.[8]
Ivan had the world record of 33 (32 consecutive) six-hour periods with an intensity at or above Category 4 strength. This record was broken two years later by Pacific Hurricane/Typhoon Ioke, which had 36 (33 consecutive) six-hour periods at Category 4 strength. This contributed to Ivan's total ACE of 70.38,[9] second only to the 1899 Hurricane San Ciriaco.[6]
Scientists from the Naval Research Laboratory at Stennis Space Center, Mississippi have used a computer model to predict that, at the height of the storm, the maximum wave height within Ivan's eyewall reached 131 feet (40 m).[10]
Ivan was one of the five rare Cape Verde storm to hit the U.S mainland after being named east of 35W. Other storms were Hurricane Donna in 1960, Hurricane Hugo in 1989, Hurricane Georges in 1998 and Hurricane Isabel in 2003.
On September 20, Ivan's remnant surface low completed an anticyclonic loop and moved across the Florida peninsula. As it continued west across the northern Gulf of Mexico, the system reorganized and again took on tropical characteristics.[1] On September 22 the National Weather Service, "after considerable and sometimes animated in-house discussion [regarding] the demise of Ivan,"[7] determined that the low was in fact a result of the remnants of Ivan and thus named it accordingly. On the evening of September 23, the revived Ivan made landfall near Cameron, Louisiana as a tropical depression. Ivan finally dissipated on September 24 as it moved overland into Texas.[1]
Quote from: reednavy on July 22, 2010, 11:25:28 PM
Quote from: gatorback on July 22, 2010, 11:21:58 PM
How often does that happen? Once every 500 years?
I have no clue, and it is too late for me to try that research, lol.
You can pick up here in the morning. Lol
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0469%281958%29015%3C0098%3ATFOCAA%3E2.0.CO%3B2
Good Morning!!!! We had a 5min rain shower this morning. Clear sky's. :D
Bonnie making landfall in Miami...nice radar images, center of circulation is very large, but a small storm in overall size and strength.
I hope we at least get a little rain from Bonnie.. Is it just me, or is this one of the hottest Summers in recent years ??? Its probably me ;)
no, it's been hot here, we reached in the century mark for the first time in 10 years! on more than one occasion. not much rain either.
Evidence of lack of rain , shows in my front yard. :( We need rain... please !!! :)
has anyone seen the latest satellite images of Bonnie...the most ragged looking TS i think i have ever seen.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html
Bonnie dipped and is back to a tropical depression. I'm so depressed.
I have mixed feelings.. With the mess in the Gulf at this point, this might be a blessing ,in disguise.
From a rain standpoint, :(
I can't be concerned with mess that will eventually make it's way to AL, MS, and LA. They knew what they were getting int. I say let the oil go there away from FL.
I am concerned, but i know of little that can be done at this stage to prevent it.
http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteworld/atlanticoceansatellite_large_animated.html
There is a newer system (not yet mentioned by NOAA) centered just south of Haiti. Larger footprint and more counter-clockwise rotation than the previous at this stage. I noticed it last night, and the rotation has held through the night. As the sun comes up today, it will be interesting to see how it develops... (or not)
(http://image.weather.com/looper/archive/atl_oce_sat_600x405/5L.jpg?1279968549026)
Colin just formed. Look like this will miss the US though.
Cool. The computer models have picked up the I,J,K & L systems downstream already. Yay!
And who said this wouldn't be an active year.
I am laughing so hard at the reporting on Earl. Has anyone watched some of the videos? The Weather Channel is in the midst of a 4 day orgasm right now blowing up a Cat 1-2 hurricane into some hugely devastating thing (and it hasn't even made landfall). The people on Cape Hatteras are so used to so much worse, I am sure they are simply just annoyed with Earl, yet if you heard Jim Cantore, Al Roker, or Stephanie Abrams you would think Hatteras just barely survived a Cat 4!
I wonder if there is going to be as much of a difference in how seriously they report on a truly major hurricane making landfall in a populated area as the difference between a lull and this non-major brush with hurricane experienced areas. I heard them interview some natives and emergency response people in Chatham, MA, and you could tell the reporters were trying to egg on hysteria and concern, but the interviewees were simply stating that they were prepared, have seen worse, and in fact the biggest Nor-Easter this past Spring was probably significantly worse than what they were about to experience. It was a little comical.
Hurricane Earl was pretty darn close to being a multi billion dollar disaster for NC and the Northeast. A shift to the west would have been devestating, not to mention there were wind gusts to near 200MPH recorded Wed. night.. that's why The Weather Channel, CNN, etc was so amped up about this storm.
Was it the rip tides of this storm that killed 2 americans, or was it the D storm--what was her name?
Hermine formed over night..Major flood threat could hit Texas. See, this is why I've been preparing this season, which, is turning out to be as active as expected.
You'd have to be stupid to at least not buy some batteries and water right?