Well guys and gals, tonight seems to be one of two chances we in the Jax Metro area have to see sleet, with snow an over 50% possibility Friday night. Radar and observation trends show that virga, precip not reaching the ground, is currently pressing into the region. This will induce a process known as evaporative cooling, which enhances the chances of seeing sleet or snow reaching the ground. Sleet is currently being repoted as far east as Clarksville in Calhoun County and observations at Okaloosa Regional have been as well. Rain mixing w/sleet is occuring on Panama City Beach as well.
Now, it'll be early in the morning when the chance for any wintry mix is to occur, and locations around I-10 and northward have the best chances, but all have a slight chance at the least.
For tomorrow night, a lot is riding on where the low pressure comes ashore and then tracks across the peninsula. The further south, the better, but if too far south, it'll cut off the precip too soon before enough cold air can be advected to us. There is a good chance of accumulations around Waycross and Nahunta, as they'll be colder to begin with. There is a <20% chance of KJAX (JIA is where cliamte data is kept) of seeing accumulations of either sleet or snow, but not 0%. A lot of last minute features have to come together for this to occur, and even I have no clue of when this will happen. There may be no signs, and it could suddenly change over. If enough cold air can be worked in, I would highly recommend staying home Friday night, as black ice may become a concern. Even if that doesn't occur, it'll be bitterly cold, by FL standards, with winds of 15-20mph producing wind chills in the mid 20s and maybe lower.
Stay safe and take pics of any precip as this is a once or twice a decade chance.
Are you sure?
Lets see who got it more right.
http://www.firstcoastnews.com/news/topstories/news-article.aspx?storyid=112229&catid=3
Don't be like that guy from CNN,who said D.C. will get only 6 inches of snow.
Apparently you didn't read the part where I said a lot of smaller features have to come together in this part of the world, or we get nothing at all.
However, tonight, I'm almost betting on seeing sleet in the metro area. Nearly all locations where the precip shield finally started mixing down have reported sleet, Tallahassee being the most recent. I am certain though that this will change to all rain after a few short hours, as all locations have as well.
You trust FCN? LMAO!
People that have been on here a while know that I have a rather good track record since I've been here, meteorologically speaking.
Based on radar returns and soundings, I highly suspect sleet is moving into the western part of the metro area now, specifically around Macclenny, Jennings State Forest, and Camp Blanding. It is detectable in a feature called "brightbanding", where sleet, snow, or melting or the two cause higher returns in an area of lighter rain and/or mixed precip.
Sleet is also likely right now from Bradford County, westward to Perry in Taylor County on the Gulf Coast.
Expect this activity to continue moving in and becoming more common, but no accumulations are expected.
I predict snow in NY.
Sleeting in Mandarin now.
Yey!
So sleet is possible at between 36 to 42 degrees?
Quote from: reednavy on February 12, 2010, 02:59:08 AM
Quote from: gatorback on February 12, 2010, 02:53:45 AM
Yey!
This is so sad, I'm excited over sleet, lol.
Well, it's not much but it's all I have. This past hurricane season was a huge disappointment. I'm looking forward to the 2010 season. I'll start the thread and post the names on Valentines day so we can start our predications. I think it's going to be a good year storm wise.
Quote from: gatorback on February 12, 2010, 03:05:04 AM
So sleet is possible at between 36 to 42 degrees?
Oh yeah, hell, it can snow at 40. Evaporative cooling, a lower dew point, and other crap have to be in tandem to get it to happen, especially down here. Plus, the fact it is a lot colder aloft helps.
Hurricane season, it's been disappointing since 2005, imo. Oh, don;t even get me started on the tornado season, there was only one good event, the Good Friday Outbreak, April 9-10, which included an EF-4 in my hometown. The fall 2nd season didn't do shit, and have yet to see anything this winter so far.
Quote from: gatorback on February 12, 2010, 03:07:46 AM
Well, it's not much but it's all I have. This past hurricane season was a huge disappointment. I'm looking forward to the 2010 season. I'll start the thread and post the names on Valentines day so we can start our predications. I think it's going to be a good year storm wise.
If El Nino sticks around, like a number or long range models are expecting, along with myself, it may be dull, numebrs wise. Remember, 1992 was an El Nino year, then came Andrew, nuf said.
Very unlikely, heading out from Mobile, here to jax, raining and cold, but no sleet or snow. Expect a wet cold miserable day but no snow or sleet
I'm sorry but I am confused. After all the devastation, loss of life, loss of property over the past years of storms, were "disappointed". Help me to understand the thinking behind this. Hurricanes, Tornadoes, etc, these storms are nothing to play with and certainly nothing we should be hoping for. If you need a fix on high, go find a great white shark and rub his belly!
I am hpoing to see something. Don't feel like driving to Waycross! I didn't notice any sleet this morning in the DT area.
Most of the chances we have for any frozen stuff will be this evening as the rain tapers off. the colder air mixing in will give us a chance for snow/sleet.
NWS JAX has a good write up.
QuoteArea Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS62 KJAX 120913
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
413 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2010
...LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AREAWIDE TODAY...
...WINDY ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TODAY...LIGHT RAINFALL MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES HAS ALREADY BROKEN
OUT ACRS THE FORECAST AREA. SLEET MAINLY DUE TO SOME STRONG
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OF THE DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND
EXPECT MOST OF THE SLEET TO END BY SUNRISE WITH MAINLY RAIN DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO CNTRL FLORIDA BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS RAINFALL WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND EXPECT THE
RAIN TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH SNOW ACRS SERN
GA MAINLY NORTHWEST OF WAYCROSS AND HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM
WATCH TO A WARNING...ANY MEASURABLE SNOW WILL LIKELY START TO OCCUR
TOWARD SUNSET AS COLDER AIR STARTS TO SLIP SOUTHWARD AND HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AT ONE INCH OR LESS BY 00Z. ELSEWHERE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BEGIN TO STACK UP WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED AND SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
POSSIBLE BUT PROBABLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TOTALS TO SUPPORT A FLOOD
WATCH ISSUANCE.
TONIGHT...THIS WILL BE WHEN THE HIGHEST IMPACT WEATHER OCCURS AS
MORE OF THE RAIN CHANGES-OVER TO SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACRS INLD SERN GA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES IN THE WARNING
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ON GRASSY AREAS AT FIRST
BUT WILL SLOWLY SPREAD TO BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AS TEMPERATURES
CLOSE IN ON FREEZING BY MIDNIGHT. JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WARNING
AREA FROM COASTAL SERN GA THROUGH THE SWAMP AND INTO THE SUWANNEE
RIVER VALLEY OF NERN FL THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOWFALL BEFORE ENDING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...STILL VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANY OF
THIS SNOW WILL STICK ON GRASSY AREAS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND
WINTER STORM WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW. ELSEWHERE ACRS NERN FL
FROM JAX TO GNV AND POINTS SOUTH MAY SEE A BRIEF TURNOVER TO SNOW OR
SOME STORM EVENT ENDING AS FLURRIES AROUND MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
I saw sleet last night for about an hour,but it was small and didnt accumulate into anything.
Quote from: civil42806 on February 12, 2010, 04:11:18 AM
Very unlikely, heading out from Mobile, here to jax, raining and cold, but no sleet or snow. Expect a wet cold miserable day but no snow or sleet
Yeah, during daylight hours, but Mobile and Pensacola had both changed over, as well as scattered locations north of PCB and Destin.
I expect a change over, but minimal to no accumulation. Of course, the models got it wrong yesterday for Dallas-Fort Worth. They showed only 1 inch, they wound up with 12.5 inches, the most ever in one day and greatest total ever at once. This is one of those systems that is hard for models to grasp on to.
Our best chances seem to be after sunset today and till around 1AM.
Without getting technical, the climate setup would be the best for this to happen.
Maybe some of us will get a some flakes to play in, but don't expect any to stick at all.
But then again, like reednavy says, This is one of those systems that is hard for models to grasp on.
Reed, Jan, I was in NYC once on a day much like this but colder. It would be raining then suddenly turn into wet, icy snow for a while, then back to rain again and back to snow. Is this the sort of thing we might be seeing tonight?
I am currently in Ocean Springs Mississippi and we had snow and sleet today but it all melted as soon as it hit the ground
I am living in Virginia until I move back to Jax in June. You guys are welcome to all of the inches/feet of snow and ice that have plagued my life and caused me to spend more time with a snow shovel than I would ever have wanted.
Quote from: Dog Walker on February 12, 2010, 03:37:06 PM
Reed, Jan, I was in NYC once on a day much like this but colder. It would be raining then suddenly turn into wet, icy snow for a while, then back to rain again and back to snow. Is this the sort of thing we might be seeing tonight?
If we get any, I'd expect it between 9PM and midnight and it will be a rain then sleet then flurry setup and end.
This is so exciting.
Quote from: Keith-N-Jax on February 12, 2010, 05:04:33 AM
I'm sorry but I am confused. After all the devastation, loss of life, loss of property over the past years of storms, were "disappointed". Help me to understand the thinking behind this. Hurricanes, Tornadoes, etc, these storms are nothing to play with and certainly nothing we should be hoping for. If you need a fix on high, go find a great white shark and rub his belly!
We do not wish any of these events on anybody. Let's just get that straight. We like tracking storms. It's perfectly natural like rubberneckering. You can't look, but you can't look away either. ;)
Well, the dry slot managed to move in and push the precip further NE before it reached us, just as I had feared. Oh well, at least we managed some sleet, granted while most slept this morning.