I see a TON of negative posts started on this site RE: the economy. Was not overly suprised that I could not find a thread on this, though I did use the search function. The DOW is now higher than its THEORETICAL high. Bottom line, I know the Dow is not the ONLY indicator of the economy. But some folks start these BS posts from obscure publications trying to scare folks into "double dip recessions" etc. Guess what. Employement is MUCH better than it has been in past recessions. The interest rate is MUCH better than past recessions. You cannot have ups without downs. Guess which direction this heading?
QuoteThe interest rate is MUCH better than past recessions.
What exactly does this mean? Interest rates this low are not a sign of a healthy economy.
Quote from: Traveller on October 15, 2009, 11:07:17 AM
QuoteThe interest rate is MUCH better than past recessions.
What exactly does this mean? Interest rates this low are not a sign of a healthy economy.
Vs. 18%? NO ONE borrows at 18%.
If you are trying to say we're in the clear, I strongly disagree. It will still be over a year before the economy is healthy. The fundamentals are still poor, and we still will have to deal with the fallout of all of the government programs that were used to artificially bolster the economy.
Quote from: St. Auggie on October 15, 2009, 11:03:00 AM
Employement is MUCH better than it has been in past recessions.
I have been unemployed 19 months. I disagree.
Nope, I think we coming into the clear. I just cant believe how many negative posts I see on this board about the economy. Guess what, things ARE getting better. The two responses to this thread are my exact point. The negativity on this board is amazing. I thought posting something positive would bring a nice change. I own a couple of businesses in St. Johns county. All the numbers are trending UP. Are they awesome? No. Are they going up? yep. I posted it to say things are getting better. Its a good thing and you should take it as such.
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I have been unemployed 19 months. I disagree.
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That sucks. Not gonna mince words. Guess what for the nation, its a whole lot better than it has in the past. Guess what, try to take a sliver optimism from my post and realize that things are improving. Again, it goes back to my original post on here. LOTS of negative posts. So far we are three for three. Good job proving my point. I do TRULY hope you find a job. I have started 2 new businesses in the last 1.5 years. I have been hiring. I am doing my part. And I will keep doing my part until the government screws me over by raising my payroll tax to pay for healthcare. Thats cool. I will just raise my prices so that we can continue this never ending loop of increased cost of living. I know others who are hiring. What line of work are you in?
Auggie, I sent you a PM.
I'm sure this minor foreclosure issue won't be an issue.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/10/15/real_estate/foreclosure_crisis_deepens/?postversion=2009101507
Awesome, 4/4. Who else has negative news? Who has the report on credit card debt? Who is gonna tell me unemployment is actually at 16%? Ive used up two negative posts right there. Now who has positive news to report? The point of my post is that there are so many negative posts on the board. Why not be happy for one frigin moment that it at least appears things are GETTING better. That is a good thing. Yep lots of bad things. More of you will post those bad things, I am certain of that. I was sharing a positive because I knew no one else on this board would.
The stock market up is a good thing.
Quote from: St. Auggie on October 15, 2009, 11:48:56 AM
Guess what, things ARE getting better.
If your kid who was getting F's comes home with a report card that has D's on it, does he or she deserve a party?
I think we are getting better, but let's be clear, we have a LONG way to go.
I agree with you Auggie... things are getting better. My investments and 401k have nearly recovered and as I have been contributing to these funds all along I look to see asharp increase when things really start heating up. I believe we can also see interest rates rising soon due to our gigantic deficit.
Jeff and Bridge, thank you. And no I would not throw a party for my 'D' kid, I would point out the GOOD things that he/she are doing and focus for just a moment that they are not a complete failure..
If the Stock Market up is a good thing for you...groovy, I am happy for you. The reality since March is that we have seen GOLD prices rise almost 25% in the US, no where else around the world mind you, only in the US, as investors rush to protect the value of an investment.
Dumping 900 billion in Stimulus, has it helped anyone here? Will adding 900 billion in healthcare for 13 million americans help anyone here? It will add more debt service and that is killing the dollar. Our Dollar is going to continue to slide and we are going to see deflation, where the dollar is worth less and less.
Enjoy the jubulation over the Wall Street rally, but beware that the value of 10,000 is not the same value it was last year, at least not in dollars.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB125547458077183509.html?mod=BOL_hpp_dc
QuoteTune Out Dow 10,000 Maniacs
By MICHAEL KAHN
Round numbers like DJIA 10K attract media attention, but look to technical trends and breadth for clues to stocks' direction.
THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE TOUCHED the 10000 mark Wednesday for the first time in just over a year. Round numbers like Dow 10000 may grab the attention of the general public and the media, but to technical analysts the real question is whether such milestones will actually translate into investors' action -- either eliciting new buying or profit-taking.
I say neither.
For technical analysts, milestones such as Dow 10000, in and of themselves, have no real meaning as support or resistance if we look at the charts. As such, I do not see it as a trigger for more buying, as if the market broke out above a resistance level, or selling, which would be expected if the market fell below a support level on the charts.
Two other factors are much more interesting, technically speaking.
The first is the pending battle between the rising trendline from the March low and the falling trendline from the October 2007 peak (see Chart 1).
Chart 1
(http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/ON-AM799_bGTcha_NS_20091014155452.jpg)
This market has confounded many, myself included, so I am not going to depend solely on the strict interpretation of lines on a chart. But this is the first time since early last year that such major trendlines are about to meet. The convergence is roughly 10300, which could be reached sometime next month. Let's use that for a framework for analysis, not a prediction.
Adding to its importance, the Dow will have retraced 50% of its bear market in this zone. Many technical analysts deem a 50% retracement move to be significant. Again, does such a recovery spur investors to take action, either buying or selling? Probably not, but let's just add it to the framework. Two trendlines and a major retracement level all converging in one place do bear watching, however.
The Standard & Poor's 500 also is closing in on a milestone at 1100. As with the Dow, there are no major peaks and troughs at this level to suggest any magic other than its round number status.
There is, however, one difference. The rising March trendline and falling October 2007 trendline are set to meet at this round number soon (see Chart 2).
Chart 2
(http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/ON-AM800_bGTcha_NS_20091014155515.jpg)
Here, too, we have a confluence of technical levels as the S&P 500 will have retraced 50% of its bear market at 1120.
The Dow and S&P 500 do not agree in terms of how high the general market will move before it faces respective trendline showdowns. It is a major reason why neither indicator is a slam dunk for the bulls, but both do suggest the trend is still up.
Let's move on to the other factor I am watching -- market breadth. Here, too, there are no problems at this time.
The number of stocks reaching 52-week highs on the New York Stock Exchange remains healthy, and the number of stocks reaching new lows is negligible. That is what we would expect to see after seven months of gains.
What would be a problem is if the number of new highs was to shrink each day. That would tell us that the leaders in the advance have stumbled and would suggest that the market's underlying trend has changed for the worse.
Another positive breadth reading comes from the advance-decline line. This indicator sums the number of stocks rising each day and subtracts the number declining. The difference tells us if the soldiers are following the generals higher.
So far, so good. What typically happens before a rally ends is that the advance-decline indicator starts to falter. It does not have to be a steep drop, but if more stocks fall each day than rise -- even when the major indexes rise -- that could indicate a problem.
While Dow 10000 and S&P 500 1100 attract popular notice, there really is no magic here. For clues about the stock market's near-term course, watch the major trendlines and breadth, not the simplistic, round numbers that mesmerize the media.
You have got to be kidding me. Really? Lets just be pi$$ed about everything then. Lets not find one sliver of happiness in these tough times. I am not a "10000 maniac", but you know what my retirement is up, it was down, that is a GOOD thing. Again, thank you to bridge and jeff for their POSITIVE comments. To the rest of you debbie downers...
by the way aj, tried replying twice to your message, and would not go through. Bottom line is I am looking into it for you.
Quotesliver of happiness
Here is your sliver of happiness with Mr. President. Since we hit 10,000 on his watch, I would not be suprised to see him win the Noble Prize in Economics as well. :o
Nope, try again. Financial Republican.
Interesting article from Robert Reich, Clinton's old Sec of Labor, makes some good points:
QuoteSo how can the Dow Jones Industrial Average be flirting with 10,000 when consumers, who make up 70 percent of the economy, have had to cut way back on buying because they have no money? Jobs continue to disappear. One out of six Americans is either unemployed or underemployed. Homes can no longer function as piggy banks because they’re worth almost a third less than they were two years ago. And for the first time in more than a decade, Americans are now having to pay down their debts and start to save.
Even more curious, how can the Dow be so far up when every business and Wall Street executive I come across tells me government is crushing the economy with its huge deficits, and its supposed “takeover†of health care, autos, housing, energy, and finance? Their anguished cries of “socialism†are almost drowning out all their cheering over the surging Dow.
The explanation is simple. The great consumer retreat from the market is being offset by government’s advance into the market. Consumer debt is way down from its peak in 2006; government debt is way up. Consumer spending is down, government spending is up. Why have new housing starts begun? Because the Fed is buying up Fannie and Freddie’s paper, and government-owned Fannie and Freddie are now just about the only mortgage games remaining in play.
Why are health care stocks booming? Because the government is about to expand coverage to tens of millions more Americans, and the White House has assured Big Pharma and health insurers that their profits will soar. Why are auto sales up? Because the cash-for-clunkers program has been subsidizing new car sales. Why is the financial sector surging? Because the Fed is keeping interest rates near zero, and the rest of the government is still guaranteeing any bank too big to fail will be bailed out. Why are federal contractors doing so well? Because the stimulus has kicked in.
In other words, the Dow is up despite the biggest consumer retreat from the market since the Great Depression because of the very thing so many executives are complaining about, which is government’s expansion. And regardless of what you call it â€" Keynesianism, socialism, or just pragmatism â€" it’s doing wonders for business, especially big business and Wall Street. Consumer spending is falling back to 60 to 65 percent of the economy, as government spending expands to fill the gap.
The problem is, our newly expanded government isn't doing much for average working Americans who continue to lose their jobs and whose belts continue to tighten, and who are getting almost nothing out of the rising Dow because they own few if any shares of stock. Despite the happy Dow and notwithstanding the upbeat corporate earnings, most corporations are still shedding workers and slashing payrolls. And the big banks still aren't lending to Main Street.
Trickle-down economics didn't work when the supply-siders were in charge. And it's not working now, at a time when -- despite all their cries of "socialism" -- big business and Wall Street are more politically potent than ever.
Auggie, I'm happy with the market. I've been doing very well with my investments since the beginning of the year. I'm still cautiously optimistic however, not pessimistic. I found the article interesting as it advises to not focus on one number that really doesn't tell a whole lot in and of itself.
Reich may have a few points. But don't they all? He's still a political hack. Not very objective IMHO.
QuoteNot very objective IMHO.
When you can throw a dart at the Wall Street Journal and pick any stock and see it move up, its not called investing.
QuoteOne out of six Americans is either unemployed or underemployed.
or...
Five out of every six Americans is gainfully employed... :)
QuoteAmericans are now having to pay down their debts and start to save.
This is a GOOD thing... been preaching it for years.
Quote from: mtraininjax on October 15, 2009, 05:10:04 PM
QuoteNot very objective IMHO.
When you can throw a dart at the Wall Street Journal and pick any stock and see it move up, its not called investing.
So what are you suggesting? If you are saying that is my investment strategy, then fine. However, I actually had a postive return in the 1st qtr when the market was still plunging.
What about Q4 of last year? Great that Q1 of 2009 turned out well for you.
I lost some. But that's what a crash does. The world saw a 1/3 decline in overall wealth. I'm definitely not a guru who could predict it all. But I did not rebound by throwing darts at a newspaper either.
Its FINALLY over 10K and the banks gave out bigger bounses then last year to those MFing stock brokers! >:(
Nice to see isnt it?
Thank you now to Sigma as well.
aj, send it.
QuoteBut I did not rebound by throwing darts at a newspaper either.
OK, perhaps not, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. But when the DOW hit the 6000 range and now up to 10000 in what, 7 months, I am sure just about every sector that was hammered in Q4, rebounded, just a wee bit. So my point was that during the last 7 months, most sectors rebounded and people saw returns to profit.
Everyone except Madoff's investors, for sad, sad reasons.
And that was the points that Reich was making, I believe. The Gov is doing its best to prop up the economy and it can't do it for long. Make your long term bets in areas where real growth will occur WHEN the economy truly turns the corner. Let's hope that's starting to happen now.
While I firmly believe in positive thinking, I do not believe that the Dow breaking 10,000 is an indicator that we are out of the woods. The main reason why the Dow cracked 10,000 is because after all of the layoffs it is inevitable that companies will start to become profitable again. Ergo, the condition of our economy is not directly reflected in the DJIA. Unfortunately, at this moment, it is exactly the opposite.
That being said, I do hope that we see a turn-around soon.
Quote from: St. Auggie on October 15, 2009, 05:27:29 PM
aj, send it.
Auggie,
Do you have an email I can send it to?
Quote from: stephendare on October 15, 2009, 07:54:34 PM
suckers market.
November the commercial mortgages reset. massive losses will be triggered.
We are not out of the woods yet. Its possible that we wont do a double dip "W" shaped recession, but the most optimistic accounts are a long 'U'.
I wouldt trust any equity period until March of next year
Buy potash.
Yep, we've discussed this before. The commercial real estate fall out is looming. I'm afraid its going to be rough at some point in the near future.