Finally! Maybe a break from relentless urban sprawl and poorly planned developments. If this is what it takes, then so be it. Let's get off our addiction to population growth and work on quality of life for those already here.QuoteFlorida population sinks after six-decade run
UF report says recession, housing bust caused slight decline this year
* By David Bauerlein
* Story updated at 6:45 PM on Monday, Aug. 17, 2009
It took 63 years but Florida’s rock-steady population growth declined this year for the first time since just after World War II, according to University of Florida researchers.
The estimated decrease of about 58,000 residents puts the state’s population at 18.7 million, so the change in residents is a fraction of 1 percent. But in a state where population has always been a question of how many and how fast, even a dip stands out.
The population shrinkage stems from the recession and the housing bust, said Stan Smith, director of population studies at the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
“When people have trouble selling their homes [in other states], that tends to slow down their movement into Florida, and migration into Florida has been the major cause of growth for many years,†he said Monday.
The other big factor is the loss of Florida jobs. Smith said Florida has an image of retirees moving to the state but actually jobs are the strongest magnet for newcomers.
“The largest number of people who move into the state are in their 20s and 30s,†he said.
Smith said researchers expect the pause button on population growth will continue through 2010 but in the longer term, Florida will add residents.
The bureau has not yet released a report with population estimates for counties and cities. However, population figures given by the bureau to officials in St. Johns and Nassau counties show continued population gains, albeit at a much slower clip than in previous years.
St. Johns County has an estimated population of 183,500, an increase of about 1.3 percent. Nassau County’s estimated population is 72,567, an increase of just under 1 percent. Duval County and Clay County officials had not yet received estimates from the University of Florida.
According to the U.S. Census, the last time Florida experienced a year-over-year population drop was 1946. Smith said that stemmed from the military downsizing Florida bases after World War II.
Brian Teeple, chief executive officer for the Northeast Florida Regional Council, said he’s not surprised by the study’s finding of a statewide population loss. He said Florida still has advantages that will attract residents from other states after the economy recovers.
“Florida is still Florida and Detroit is still Detroit,†he said, drawing a comparison between Florida and northern states. “Sunshine and low taxes are a strong draw, I don’t care where you are.â€
He said government entities in Florida are feeling the squeeze. They have depended on growth-related revenue to pay for government services so they are falling farther behind in being able to pay for services, whether it’s for education or road-building, he said.
“As long as the [growth] engine was chugging along, we were still falling behind but it wasn’t as evident,†he said.
He said the challenge in the future will be to guide growth in a way that restrains the cost of providing government services.
University of North Florida economist Paul Mason said a drop in the state’s population has a significant impact on the hard-hit housing industry. Home builders and the real estate market have benefitted from population growth supplying them a steady stream of customers. He said a smaller population also suggests the state’s workforce has been reduced, meaning less business for all the companies that sell goods and services to workers.
Still, Mason said it would take more than a short-term population drop to fundamentally change the makeup of the state’s economy.
From: http://jacksonville.com/news/metro/2009-08-17/story/florida_population_sinks_after_six_decade_run
So much for the 2050 prediction or whatever it was. I think that the dirt cheap prices of overbuilt south Florida will encourage extensive buying in the next few years, but the question is will they be first or second homes to the owners.
I'll wait for the 2010 census numbers to come out. Overall, it has increased, but supposedly decreased this year.
Which makes me wonder, do cities here not do any of their 3 alloted Special Census' between the cycles?
The 2050 or 2060 predictions may still hold true....keep in mind that the massive population increase of 2002-2006 was not predicted either.
In the end, short-term dips and spurts even out....just like in the stock market