http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/07/19/starting-to-get-crowded-i_1_n_239965.html
QuoteWASHINGTON â€" It's starting to get crowded in the 100-year-olds' club. Once virtually nonexistent, the world's population of centenarians is projected to reach nearly 6 million by midcentury. That's pushing the median age toward 50 in many developed nations and challenging views of what it means to be old and middle-age.
The number of centenarians already has jumped from an estimated few thousand in 1950 to more than 340,000 worldwide today, with the highest concentrations in the U.S. and Japan, according to the latest Census Bureau figures. Their numbers are projected to grow at more than 20 times the rates of the total population by 2050, making them the fastest growing age segment.
Demographers attribute booming long-livers to decades of medical advances and improved diets, which have reduced heart disease and stroke. Genetics and lifestyle also play a factor. So, too, do doctors who are more willing to aggressively treat the health problems of people once considered too old for such care.
"My parents are 86 and 87 and they're going strong, with my dad driving all over the place, so I've already told my financial planners that I'm going to live to at least 96," said Susan Ryckman, 61, as she walked around New York City, an iPod and iPhone in hand.
"As long as I'm not mentally and physically infirm, I'd like to live as long as I can," she said.
Japan, known for its low-fat staple of fish and rice, will have the most centenarians in 2050 â€" 627,000, or nearly 1 percent of its total population, according to census estimates.
Japan pays special respect to the elderly and has created a thriving industry in robotics â€" from dogs and nurses to feeding machines â€" to cater to its rapidly aging population.
Italy, Greece, Monaco and Singapore, aided by their temperate climates, also will have sizable shares of centenarians, most notably among women.
In the U.S., centenarians are expected to increase from 75,000 to more than 600,000 by midcentury. Those primarily are baby boomers hitting the 100-year mark. Their population growth could add to rising government costs for the strained Medicare and Social Security programs.
"The implications are more than considerable, and it depends on whether you're healthy or sick," said Dr. Robert N. Butler, president and chief executive of the International Longevity Center, a New York-based nonprofit group specializing in aging. "Healthy centenarians are not a problem, and many are. But if you have a demented, frail centenarian, they can be very expensive."
Butler predicted a surge in demand in the U.S. for nursing homes, assisted living centers and other special housing, given the wave of aging boomers who will be at increased risk for Alzheimer's disease. He said federal and state governments may have to reevaluate retirement benefits, age limits on driving and Medicare coverage as they struggle to redefine what it means to be old.
"We don't have a major coordinating figure such as a White House counselor to reach across all departments, and we need one," Butler said.
Census estimates show:
_Come 2017, it will be the first time there will be more people 65 and older than there will be kids younger than 5.
_Due to low birth rates, Japan's median age will increase from 37 in 1990 to 55 by 2050. The median age for the world during that same period will rise from 24 to 37, slowed by younger populations in Latin America and Africa.
_The median age in the U.S. will edge higher from 33 to 39 during that period, kept low by higher rates of immigration.
In the U.S., experts say rising rates of obesity for people who are more sedentary or eat too much junk food could take a toll on life expectancy. AARP and other groups are trying to promote healthier lifestyles.
AARP is conducting a 10-month pilot project in Albert Lea, Minn., aimed at extending the life span of residents by two years. The group is working with the city to make it easier to get around on foot or bike, develop social networks and provide healthier fast-food options, and is hoping to expand the effort to other cities.
A recent Pew Research Center poll of 2,969 adults found that Americans, on average, would like to live to 89; the current life span is 78. One in five people would like to live past 90, while 8 percent would like to pass the century mark.
"Our motto is that dancing boomers are forever young," said Julie Dahlman, 62, co-founder of a 300-member boomers social club in Portland, Ore., that hosts dances, golf outings, hikes and wine tastings. Dahlman said that after caring for a 92-year-old mother with Alzheimer's, she knew it was important to live life to its fullest.
"I'm silly with my girlfriends, and we still have a slumber party once in a while," Dahlman said. "We're not going to go away quietly."
It must be our crappy system of medical care...
Are they? Again from your post...
Quotewith the highest concentrations in the U.S. and Japan, according to the latest Census Bureau figures. Their numbers are projected to grow at more than 20 times the rates of the total population by 2050, making them the fastest growing age segment.
QuoteIn the U.S., centenarians are expected to increase from 75,000 to more than 600,000 by midcentury. Those primarily are baby boomers hitting the 100-year mark. Their population growth could add to rising government costs for the strained Medicare and Social Security programs.
I submit that our rise in obesity rates is directly proportional to our degree of wealth and comfort in this country.
QuoteThen why are poor people so much more likely to be obese?
Because in this country... they are not really poor. Poor is relative. They are poor compared to their neighbors and countrymen.
Obesity comes from consuming more calories than needed over a long period of time. I read somewhere Budda and king George were fat... perhaps too many Swanson dinners?
Are you just having a bad day?
QuoteAt an individual level, a combination of excessive caloric intake, lack of physical activity, and genetic susceptibility is thought to explain most cases of obesity, with a limited number of cases due solely to genetics, medical reasons, or psychiatric illness.[73] In contrast at a societal level increasing rates of obesity are felt to be due to an easily accessible and palatable diet,[74] increased reliance on cars, and mechanized manufacturing.[75][76]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obesity
I would have to ask someone from Switzerland. My guess is they would respond that we eat to much and dont get enough excersize.
I said...
"At an individual level, a combination of excessive caloric intake, lack of physical activity,"
and
"My guess is they would respond that we eat to much and dont get enough excersize."
Are they not the same? I think the swiss would agree...
QuotePeople are eating more because they are not getting enough nutrition from the same amounts of food that they used to.
Actually... they are getting more.
QuoteThe per capita dietary energy supply varies markedly between different regions and countries. It has also changed significantly over time.[79] From the early 1970s to the late 1990s the average calories available per person per day (the amount of food bought) has increased in all parts of the world except Eastern Europe. The United States had the highest availability with 3,654 calories per person in 1996.[80] This increased further in 2002 to 3,770.[81] During the late 1990s Europeans had 3394 calories per person, in the developing areas of Asia there were 2,648 calories per person, and in sub-Sahara Africa people had 2,176 calories per person.[80][82]
And...
QuoteA sedentary lifestyle plays a significant role in obesity.[96] Worldwide there has been a large shift towards less physically demanding work,[97][98][99] and currently at least 60% of the world's population does not get sufficient exercise.[98] This is primarily due to increasing use of mechanized transportation and a greater prevalence of labor saving technology in the home.[97][98][99] World trends in active leisure time physical activity are controversial. The World Health Organization indicates that worldwide people are taking up less active recreational pursuits however a study from Finland[100] found an increase and a study from the United States found leisure-time physical activity has not changed significantly.[101]
Studies in children and adults have found an association between the number of hours of television watched and the prevalence of obesity.[102][103][104] A 2008 meta analysis found that 63 of 73 studies (86%) showed an increased rate of childhood obesity with increased media exposure, and rates increasing proportionally to time spent watching television
One paragragh down...
QuoteA 2008 meta analysis found that 63 of 73 studies (86%) showed an increased rate of childhood obesity with increased media exposure, and rates increasing proportionally to time spent watching television
Personal choice plays a huge role in obesity. A big mac and fries washed down with a supersized coke contains more calories than an equal weight of fruit and veggies. Eat a pound of fruit and veggies washed down with a glass of water instead of a poind of big mac and fries with coke.
Who do you think will gain and keep the weight? Couple that with a sedentary lifestyle and ... Voila!
Point taken... but no one is making anyone eat unhealthy. It is a personal choice... a parental responsibility. Back in the day a big mac and fries was a treat... it was occasional. We now choose fast food as part of our daily diet. We do it for convenience. We do it for expediency. But it is a choice...
Confirming....
Quoteincreased rate of childhood obesity with increased media exposure, and rates increasing proportionally to time spent watching television
Americans have more access to nutritional food than ever before. They also have more access to less nutritional food. I grew up in Wisconsin... I seldom ate fresh vegetables in the winter... I hated canned peas or spinach. Frozen foods were in their infancy. Oranges and bananas etc were expensive in the winter. Today in even the most remote areas of the U.S. you can buy fressh fruit and veggies at a modest price.
I am agreeing with you... You said...
QuoteI remember when Jon and I first started at the restaurant, and our friends stopped listening to radio and television commercials telling them that food had to be fast and a good value 24/7.
Its amazing how your life changes when you cut out the advertising voices from round the clock access to your brain.
I replied from the Wki article...
Quoteincreased rate of childhood obesity with increased media exposure, and rates increasing proportionally to time spent watching television
I am saying what and how we eat is a choice and we have more choice than ever before... both good and bad choices. Many (including myself) make bad nutritional choices.
OK, this will probably get both of you mad at me but surely you have better things to do than keep commenting on what each of you says. You're wasting your time and that of your readers.
I'm overweight and I got that way because of what I have eaten and not exercising enough. I'm lucky, in a way, because my being overweight has nothing to do with any medical problem -- except, perhaps, stupidity and simple lack of commitment. I keep making excuses for staying overweight and actually have lost some. I used to weigh almost 250 pounds and I've dropped to around 220 -- unfortunately not because of exercise but because I'm just eating less.
My excuse right now is simply that I have a broken foot. My podiatrist said that if I were young and healthy, I'd be in a fracture boot for from 8-12 weeks. Then he pointed out the obvious -- I'm neither young nor healthy.
If you want to lose weight, watch what you eat and exercise. Join a gym. There are those which don't cost a lot or you can just exercise at home or walk or run. There are many suggestions on the Internet and I won't waste your time by giving you references -- I'm sure you can find them by yourselves.
I think it's great that I'm 67 years old and may have a chance to become a centenarian myself. My great grandchildren may live even longer and I might get to see their grandchildren.
What I really want is to see human beings live in space and reach the stars. How about putting some ideas out as to how we might do that?
Que Sera, Sera (Whatever Will Be, Will Be)
I must admit that this was an interesting debate.
I wonder if the new discoveries on Telomeres (sp) the Stephen posted on a while back will help to expand our lifetimes exponentially? It will be interesting to see how far things advance during my lifetime.
Just got back from Nicaragua very poor yet I did not see many obese people. They eat a lot of fruit because it is grown locally and cheaper than the processed food. So they appear very healthy and fit in their younger life yet can not afford the health care to extend their life like we do in the more developed countries. I submit to you that living a long life is about health care when you are old. BTW we have socialized medicine for old people in this country.
Socialized medicine or not, if you eat healthy and stay active you'll need very little healthcare.
As much as I still see and hear commercials for the 1 million calorie fast food triple fat burgers I also see many promoting everything from healthier sides to salads and fat free alternatives. Maybe we'll see fast food companies become more responsible and serve nutritious meals to more Americans... and Americans become responsible and choose these meals.
What will we do with all the extra people that good diets and exercise and medical breakthroughs will be getting us? Some people say the Earth can't really support all the people on it now. Here's something we can do with all the extra people: Go into space, reach for the stars, put colonies on all available M-Class planets and terra-form what others we can so we can live there, too. Don’t limit this exodus. I want to go, too.
Throughout history science fiction has become science fact.
Just a couple of examples: Jules Verne wrote From the Earth to the Moon and got many things right. He put the launch site in Florida not that far from the Cape. Another example, his 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea had a submarine which may have used nuclear power -- anyone check those subs operating out of Kings Bay? HG Wells talked about a time machine and I've read recently -- perhaps someone else can find the citation -- that scientists are now working along the line that he might have had a good idea.
Flight, itself, not to mention space travel, was only fiction in which fools believed -- at one time. Look at us now. I think the SR-71 Blackbird still holds world records for speed and altitude for aircraft: http://www.wvi.com/~sr71webmaster/srrcd~1.htm (http://www.wvi.com/~sr71webmaster/srrcd~1.htm) and I haven’t forgotten that we’ve walked on the Moon.
You have probably heard of the Manhattan Project which resulted in the atomic bomb. What some of you might not have heard is that military intelligence and FBI and so forth descended on some of the science fiction magazines in New York about the time nuclear weapons were becoming real and ordered them not to publish scheduled stories regarding nuclear weapons.
What the agents were told, essentially, was that science fiction publishers operated on a sort of schedule and it was their turn to publish just such a story. If they didn’t, other publishers and later the readers would become suspicious and wonder why. The publishers also made another very good point â€" the magazines had already been mailed.
You might remember the story of the Heavy Cruiser Indianapolis from Captain Quint’s monologue in the movie Jaws . While the man on whom Captain Quint was based had never been in the Navy and certainly had never served on the Indianapolis, the story he related was real. See http://www.whysanity.net/monos/jaws.html (http://www.whysanity.net/monos/jaws.html) for his quote.
Here’s why I’m bringing this up: One story has German spies hearing about the visit of the security people to the publishers and while, at the time, it was pretty clear Germany had lost the war, they were allies with Japan. They figured out that something was up and that a weapon was going to be delivered which could end the war â€" it was going to be delivered by ship â€" and it might be a heavy cruiser.
The Japanese went looking and only by luck did not find the Indianapolis until after she had delivered either Fat Man or Little Boy â€" I’ve forgotten which â€" to Tinian where the bomb was put aboard the Enola Gay and later dropped on Hiroshima. The other weapon, the one dropped on Nagasaki, was delivered by air to Tinian and dropped by Bock’s Car.
The captain of the Indianapolis later became perhaps the only US Navy officer to have as a witness against him at his court-martial the captain of the Japanese submarine which fired the torpedo which sank his ship.
While Quint was never actually there, his words were right: “So, eleven hundred men went in the water, three hundred and sixteen men come out, the sharks took the rest, June the 29, 1945. Anyway, we delivered the bomb.†If you’d like, as Paul Harvey would put it, “The Rest of the Story,†look it up via Google, I’ve taken enough of your time. Thanks for reading.