Storm names
The following names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2009. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2010. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2015 season. Names that were not used are marked in gray, and names in bold are storms currently active. This is the same list used in the 2003 season with the exception of Fred, Ida, and Joaquin, which replaced Fabian, Isabel, and Juan respectively. If there are more than 21 named storms (the 21st being Wanda) then any more tropical storm-strength systems will be named with the Greek alphabet, starting with Alpha. This has only occurred once, in 2005.
* Ana (unused)
* Bill (unused)
* Claudette (unused)
* Danny (unused)
* Erika (unused)
* Fred (unused)
* Grace (unused)
* Henri (unused)
* Ida (unused)
* Joaquin (unused)
* Kate (unused)
* Larry (unused)
* Mindy (unused)
* Nicholas (unused)
* Odette (unused)
* Peter (unused)
* Rose (unused)
* Sam (unused)
* Teresa (unused)
* Victor (unused)
* Wanda (unused)
Quote from: Reuters Tue Dec 23, 2008 11:29am EST
Active 2009 Atlantic hurricane season predicted
MIAMI (Reuters) - Another forecaster predicted an active 2009 Atlantic hurricane season on Tuesday, six months ahead of the tropical cyclone period that begins on June 1.
WSI Corp. predicted 13 tropical storms in the 2009 season and said seven would develop into hurricanes.
The long-term average during the six-month season is for 10 or 11 tropical storms and six hurricanes.
WSI, based in Andover, Massachusetts, forecast that three of next year's hurricanes would be dangerous storms with a rank of Category 3 or above on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity.
Such storms feature sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour.
The WSI forecast was in line with one issued on December 10 by the prominent team of U.S.-based researchers at Colorado State University, formed by forecasting pioneer William Gray.
The Colorado State team, whose forecasts are followed closely by energy and commodity traders, said 2009 would see 14 tropical storms, seven of which would develop into hurricanes.
Like WSI, Gray's team said three of next year's hurricanes would pack winds hitting Category 3 or above.
The 2008 season, which ended on November 30, was one of the most active on record and produced 16 tropical storms, eight of which became hurricanes. According to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, it spawned a record number of consecutive storms that struck the United States.
"Since 1995, most tropical seasons have been more active than long-term averages, due to warmer Atlantic Ocean temperatures," WSI forecaster Todd Crawford said in a statement. "We do not see any reason why this active regime will not continue in 2009."
I think Larry is going to be the worst. Larry has always been bad. I remember once, in high school, he made a pipe bomb, and blew off his hand and a hole in the neighbour's yatch. Plus L is near Ike and so it would probably high season. Gosh I hate this time of the year.
I'll wager that Peter and Rose will be worse. I don't know why. Just something about those names makes me feel like gambling.
I think they should post the full names of these hurricanes. Clearly there is some glove-slapping of the French happening here. Henri? Victor? Maybe we don't like dipsomniac lithographers or social-advocate wordsmiths in this here country.
And I want a nickel for every new station that plays "Everyone knows it's Mindy..." when she starts kicking around. Just saying that right off.
Danny, Fred, and Rose will be the nasty ones. With the mention of Rose, I predict 17 named storms.
Fred should be a cat 5 around Sept 10th or 11th (the typical peak of the hurricane season).
:)
It's going to be a moderately more active than average Atlantic hurricane season in 2009, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued by Dr. Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (CSU) today. The CSU team is calling for 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index 30% above average (Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is a measure of the total destructive power of a hurricane season, based on the number of days strong winds are observed). An average season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The CSU forecast calls for a 63% chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., which is 11% above average. The odds for a major East Coast hurricane are put at 39% (a 31% chance is average), and odds for the Gulf Coast are put at 38% (30% chance is average). The CSU team's prediction of an above average hurricane season hinges on two main factors:
1) An El Niño event is not expected in 2009. The current pressure pattern in the Northeast Pacific is one frequently associated with the development of a La Niña event. A number of the computer models used to forecast El Niño are now calling for development of a La Niña event in 2009. Lack of an El Niño event in 2009 will lead to average to below average values of wind shear over the Atlantic, enhancing hurricane activity.
2) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic have been anomalously warm in October and November. This implies we are still in the active phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the active period of hurricane activity that began in 1995.
(http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/history/at_forecast_accuracy.png)
Figure 1. Accuracy of long-range forecasts of Atlantic hurricane season activity performed by Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (colored squares) and TSR (colored lines). The skill is measured by the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS), which looks at the error and squares it, then compares the percent improvement the forecast has over a climatological forecast of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TS=Tropical Storms, H=Hurricanes, IH=Intense Hurricanes, ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy, NTC=Net Tropical Cyclone Activity. Image credit: TSR.
How good are these December hurricane season forecasts?
Keep in mind that these December forecasts are a research project, and as yet have shown no skill in predicting the activity of upcoming hurricane seasons. They make this clear in the introduction to the December forecast, stating, "our real-time forecasts issued in early December from 1992-2007 did not show skill in real time". The CSU team talks extensively about their "hindcast" skill with these December forecasts, which means they can successfully predict the behavior of past hurricane seasons using their methodology. In their words, "It is only through hindcast skill that one can demonstrate that seasonal forecast skill is possible. This is a valid methodology provided that the atmosphere continues to behave in the future as it has in the past." The problem is that the atmosphere often does not continue to behave in the future as it has in the past, and a technique that is successful in a hindcast will often fail in a forecast. In their 2007 December forecast, they showed that the correlation coefficient (r squared), a standard mathematical measure of skill, was near zero for their real-time December forecasts between 1992-2007. They made a successful December 2007 forecast which was not included in that analysis, and their December skill is probably slightly positive now.
Another way to measure skill is using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS), which looks at the forecast error and squares it, then compares the percent improvement the forecast has over a climatological forecast of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (Figure 1). The skill of the December forecasts issued by both CSU and Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) have averaged near zero since 1992. Not surprisingly, the forecasts get better the closer they get to hurricane season. The TSR forecasts show more skill than the CSU forecasts, but it is unclear how much of this superiority is due to the fact that TSR issues forecasts of fractional storms (for example, TSR may forecast 14.7 named storms, while CSU uses only whole numbers like 14 or 15). TSR does an excellent job communicating their seasonal forecast skill. Each forecast is accompanied by a "Forecast Skill at this Lead" number, and they clearly define this quantity as "Percentage Improvement in Mean Square Error over Running 10-year Prior Climate Norm from Replicated Real Time Forecasts 1987-2006."
The June and August forecasts from CSU, TSR, and NOAA show some modest skill, and are valuable tools for insurance companies and emergency planners to help estimate their risks. The key problem with forecasts done in April or earlier is that the El Niño/La Niña atmospheric cycle that can dominate the activity of an Atlantic hurricane season is generally not predictable more than 3-6 months in advance. For example, none of the El Niño forecast models foresaw the September 2006 El Niño event until May of 2006. Until we can forecast the evolution of El Niño more than six months in advance, December forecasts of Atlantic hurricane activity are merely interesting mental exercises that don't deserve the media attention they get. There is hope for the December forecasts, since Klotzbach and Gray (2004) showed that their statistical scheme could make a skillful forecast in December, when applied to 50 years of historical data. However, these "hindcasts" are much easier to make than a real-time forecast. For example, before 1995, it was observed that high rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa was correlated with increased Atlantic hurricane activity. This correlation was used as part of the CSU forecast scheme. However, when the current active hurricane period began in 1995, the correlation stopped working. Drought conditions occurred in the Sahel, but Atlantic hurricane activity showed a major increase. The CSU team was forced to drop African rainfall as a predictor of Atlantic hurricane activity.
References
Klotzbach, P.J., and W.M. Gray, "Updated 6-11 Month Prediction of Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Activity," Weather and Forecasting 19, Issue 5, October 2004, pp. 917-934.
Jeff Masters
Quoteand as yet have shown no skill in predicting the activity of upcoming hurricane seasons.
Quote"our real-time forecasts issued in early December from 1992-2007 did not show skill in real time".
:D
QuoteNot surprisingly, the forecasts get better the closer they get to hurricane season.
Which means their guess holds no more weight than ours... :)
We'll have to revive this thread when hurricane season gets here and then leaves to see who is the closest.
Brilliant idea Jason. I'm going with 14 named storms w/ 8 hurricanes and 5 severe.
From our Florida State researchers...
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/
QuoteGlobal and Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Activity [still] lowest in 30-years
Tropical cyclone (TC) activity worldwide has completely and utterly collapsed during the past 2 to 3 years with TC energy levels sinking to levels not seen since the late 1970s. This should not be a surprise to scientists since the natural variability in climate dominates any detectable or perceived global warming impact when it comes to measuring yearly integrated tropical cyclone activity...
This is the year Jacksonville takes a cat 3 on the chin. Who wants to place bets now?
Define...
Quoteon the chin
I'm not sure we should even suggest placing bets. Next thing you know, they'll closing us down. What odds are you talkin?
Quote from: David on March 13, 2009, 12:39:00 PM
This is the year Jacksonville takes a cat 3 on the chin. Who wants to place bets now?
Why would you say something like this,,lets bet for no Hurricanes. Though no one has any control.
A long time central texas resident told me that the weather this year points to a mega storm hitting around Houston and heading straight toward the Brazos Valley. That's between Austin and Dallas. Smack dab in the to the middle of Texas he predicts for this year.
Quote from: gatorback on March 14, 2009, 03:41:57 PM
A long time central texas resident told me that the weather this year points to a mega storm hitting around Houston and heading straight toward the Brazos Valley. That's between Austin and Dallas. Smack dab in the to the middle of Texas he predicts for this year.
Your friend should inform the National weather service about his predictive ability then 8)
Teddy, a much older texan I know, predicted Ike last year. He said the warm winter would not be good for hurricane season. But, I'll pass the word on to Charles. Ha.
What worries me is that this year is starting out like 2005, the late winter and spring were extremely dry up through July, and then all of a sudden we had these atrocious and vicious tropical storms and hurricanes. Hope I'm wrong.
Heights Unknown
The pending fire season may be more of a concern than hurricanes this year. The area suffered a cold winter that killed of a dried out a lot of vegetation. Couple that with low rainfall amounts and we may be seeing another fire season similar to '98.
You got that one right Jason. But, with the season fast approaching, what is Jacksonville doing to prepare?
Hurricane names retired: Ike, Gustav and Paloma
With hurricane season starting a month from today, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced the retirement of three Atlantic storm names, never to be used again. Not surprisingly, Ike is off the list, along with Gustav and Paloma.
Ike from NOAA Hurricane Gustav hit western Cuba as a category four hurricane and made landfall near Morgan City, Louisiana on Labor Day, September 1, 2008. NOAA reports Gustav caused $4 billion damage and killed 112 people.
Hurricane Ike made landfall in Galveston on September 13, 2008 with category two winds and category four storm surge. Ike killed 80 people in the Caribbean and another 20 in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas. Damage is estimated at $19 billion, according to NOAA.
Hurricane Paloma was the second strongest November hurricane to develop in the Atlantic basin, becoming a category four storm while over the Caribbean. Paloma destroyed 1400 homes in Cuba and caused $300 million damage in the U.S.
Six lists of names are used in rotation to name tropical weather systems. Last year's list will be used again in 2014. Names are retired only if the hurricanes are significant. The names Gonzalo, Isaias and Paulette will replace the three retired today.
Quote from: Keith-N-Jax on March 13, 2009, 09:15:18 PM
Why would you say something like this, lets bet for no Hurricanes. Though no one has any control
That's exactly why I would something like that... because it doesn't matter. You might as well have a little fun with it.
Watch this: I bet I’ll stumble across a million dollars in two seconds!
............nothing. It didn't happen.
I would say Jacksonville is past due for a direct hit from a major storm, but the fact is we just don't take many direct hits in this part of Florida. Personally I’m just fascinated by hurricanes, we've had so many close calls in North Florida..... so many calls to get ready and evacuate and then when nothing would happen, it just left me with this antsy feeling.
That eternal preparation for storms that rarely came is why I started chasing these things in 2004. We're lucky and cursed in a sense that we get to witness a force of nature that's rare in most parts of the world.
You know, I stumbled across an interesting peice of history at the Government House in St. Augustine. A pamphlet I picked up mentioned the exhibition of the "Huricane Lady" statue that dates back to the early 1800's. It came to St. Augustine by way of a Spanish ship that survived a violent storm off the coast. The short of the story is that ever since the statue had landed in St Augustine, there have been no major direct hits to the city by hurricanes. Rather interesting.
Here is some info I found at St. Augustine.com
http://www.staugustine.com/stories/060103/new_1575567.shtml
some more info here...
http://spirit-digest.com/Prayers/hurricanelady.htm
Next time we're threatened I know who I'm gonna go see! :)
I'm still trying to figure why the retired Paloma, she didn't kill that many and didn't cause that much damage in $ terms.
Wtf kind of name is Isaias?! Hell, Gonzalo is weird as well.
Right! I smiled on April 30, 2009 when the storm come to Houston. I got that little sparkle in my eye that's been missing since Nov. 2008. A grin on my face when my friend Ladye told me they clocked 75+ mile an hour winds in Seabrook(on Galveston Bay). She said we had our own little "mini-hurricane."
What's a mini-hurricane?
"This was worse than Tropical Storm Allison"
(http://weatherblog.abc13.com/images/2009/04/28/flooding_crescentpark.jpg)
Almost a foot of rain fell in West Houston overnight. This was the fourth heavy rain event to swamp our area in the last two weeks!
Once again, the storms developed and stalled allowing torrential rain to fall for several hours. 6-11" of rain fell over a large part of West Houston, from the West Loop and West Belt, to Katy, Cypress, Tomball, Spring and neighborhoods in-between.
Click here to see a slide show of viewer photos from today's storm.
http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/gallery?section=news&id=6783813&photo=1
The map below shows the estimated rainfall from Doppler radar over the last two days.
Rainfall_04282009
During our continuous live coverage Tuesday morning, some folks living in West Houston said the rain was heavier in this storm than it was during Tropical Storm Allison. And indeed it was.... in that area where only 3-6" of rain fell during the storm in 2001.
Some additional heavy thundershowers could develop overnight and early Wednesday. Although we are keeping a slight chance of rain in our forecast through the end of the week, the overall weather pattern should shift most of the widespread heavy rain northward, away from Houston. There's nothing to dry us out. So if showers do develop they could be heavy.
Quote from: Jason on May 13, 2009, 12:15:27 PM
The short of the story is that ever since the statue had landed in St Augustine, there have been no major direct hits to the city by hurricanes.
Dora dropped from a Cat3 (major level) to Cat 2 minutes before landfall in St Augustine.
Matter of fact, NOAA estimated she had 125MPH winds at St Augustine. 115MPH winds were measured inland between Jacksonville and St Augustine. The eye came inland 6 miles north of St Augustine, a direct hit.
Might be just a silly superstition.
Read the full report.
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/hurricanes/Qc9452d673h81964.pdf
Yeah, I'm aware of Dora. Still, superstition or not, I think that the section of coastline between Flagler Beach and St. Simons Island is one of the least impacted coastlines along the Atlantic Ocean. Also, a cat 2 is not considered a "major" storm. So maybe she is doing some good? :)
The story is interesting nonetheless.
Do hurricanes affect global warming, which can affect hurricanes?
In the discussion about global warming, there is a new chicken-and-egg argument.
Harvard University scientists have discovered that tall clouds in hurricanes can add moisture to the stratosphere and increase global warming, which in turn can cause hurricanes to get stronger, adding more moisture to the stratosphere....and on and on.
Our weather develops in the troposphere, the lower atmosphere. Immediately above, the stratosphere is weather-free. But in analyzing cloud data from 1983-2006, researchers David M. Romps and Zhiming Kuang found that water vapor in the stratosphere has increased 50% over the last 50 years. They believe it's because strong hurricanes have very tall clouds which can punch into the stratosphere.
Hurricane_rita_hot_towers
(http://weatherblog.abc13.com/images/2009/04/22/hurricane_rita_hot_towers.jpg)
There years ago, NASA discovered something similar. High-resolution satellite data of Hurricane Rita showed gigantic "hot towers" extending vertically over 11 miles high, shown to the right. They saw something similar in Hurricane Katrina right before it intensified into a category 5 hurricane while over the Gulf of Mexico.
Romps and Kuang believe the ice crystals in these cloud towers evaporate, leaving water vapor in the stratosphere which could eventually increase global temperatures.
Making this more complicated, other scientists believe global warming can cause hurricanes to strengthen. So does that mean hurricanes will keep getting stronger and stronger?
Remember, this is all just research. People are asking questions and finding answers, which often lead to more questions.
Its still debated whether she was Cat 2 or Cat 3.
QuoteStill, superstition or not, I think that the section of coastline between Flagler Beach and St. Simons Island is one of the least impacted coastlines along the Atlantic Ocean
You really need to read this:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/history/index.html
Here's a condensed list of storms that have hit us here in NE Florida.
Quote1565 September
Hurricane - sank the French Fleet from Ft Caroline in present day Jacksonville
1571 September
Hurricane - St Augustine Landfall
1599 September
Hurricane - inundated St Augustine
1638 August
Hurricane
1641 September
Tropical Storm
1674 August
Hurricane
1707 September
Hurricane
1753 August
Tropical Storm
1769 September
Hurricane
1794 October
Hurricane
1797 October
Hurricane
1804 September
Hurricane
1806 September
Hurricane
1811 October
Hurricane
1812 October
Hurricane (same dates as one in 1811, 2 storms back to back years)
1813 September
Hurricane - possibly a major
1824 September
Hurricane
1825 June
TS (backdoor hit)
1825 October
Hurricane
1830 October
Tropical Storm
1831 June
Tropical Storm (backdoor hit)
1835 August
Tropical Storm
1837 August
Hurricane -possibly a major (barometers in Puerto Rico read 28.00 | 948mb )
1837 August
Tropical Storm - second storm passes offshore in same month bringing TS force winds to coastline
1837 August
Tropical Storm - backdoor hit (3rd "hit" within same month)
1837 September
Tropical Storm (a total of 6 storms affect NE Florida and Georgia that year alone)
1841 September
Tropical Storm
1842 August
Tropical Storm
1842 October
Hurricane backdoor hit
1842 October
Tropical Storm - possible recurve of earlier storm in October
1844 September
Hurricane
1846 October
MAJOR Hurricane - backdoor hit, 917mb in Havana, 901mb near Key West
1848 September
Hurricane - backdoor hit
1848 October
Tropical Storm - backdoor hit
1852 October
Tropical Storm
1853 October
Tropical Storm
1854 September
Hurricane (Major Hurricane for Georgia)
1861 August
Tropical Storm
1867 June
Tropical Storm
1871 August
HUrricane
1871 August
Tropical Storm
1871 September
Tropical Storm
1874 September
Tropical Storm
1877 October
Tropical Storm (backdoor hit)
1878 September
Hurricane - 989mb reading, weak Cat 1
1880 August
Tropical Storm
1880 October
Tropical Storm
1882 October
Tropical Storm
1885 August
Tropical Storm
1885 October
Tropical Storm (backdoor hit)
1888 October
Tropical Storm
1893 June
Tropical Storm
1893 August
Hurricane (major in Georgia)
1893 October
Tropical Storm
1894 September
Hurricane
1894 October
Tropical Storm
1896 September
MAJOR Hurricane
1897 September
Tropical Storm
1898 October
Hurricane (major in extreme NE Florida and Georgia)
Has the definition of what constitues a hurricane changed at all from the 1500s to now? What about before 1565?
Yeah, because if you want to consider any tropical storm, weakened hurricane, depression or a disturbance a direct hit, we get plenty of those.
I believe what Jason is trying to say is it's rare to take a direct hit from a major hurricane, cat 3 and above on the NE Florida cost.
And it's all because of that statue too. Fact.
I'm not sure what the definition of a hurricane was 300 years ago....that's a good research topic!
(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v451/eldeadcow/hurricanemap.jpg)
Quote from: David on May 13, 2009, 03:15:24 PM
Yeah, because if you want to consider any tropical storm, weakened hurricane, depression or a disturbance a direct hit, we get plenty of those.
I believe what Jason is trying to say is it's rare to take a direct hit from a major hurricane, cat 3 and above on the NE Florida cost.
And it's all because of that statue too. Fact.
I'm not sure what the definition of a hurricane was 300 years ago....that's a good research topic!
Its only rare for us since we have been here to actually record it for a few centuries.
Read this:
http://www.boston.com/lifestyle/green/greenblog/2008/08/bostons_hurricane_history_eigh.html
Even Boston, MA has shown a propensity for hurricanes. Research is showing that 13 "Hurricanes" have hit during the 13th century.
Direct hits are rare, but we get a ton of backdoor hits that are just as bad.
I just don't care for people thinking that we are protected, whereas our knowledge of this areas past is so limited.
I find it humorous that a hurricane was named "EASY" in 1950. Since when did boys and girls names begin with EASY? I thought that was saved for the summer of love, 1969?
QuoteDirect hits are rare, but we get a ton of backdoor hits that are just as bad.
I just don't care for people thinking that we are protected, whereas our knowledge of this areas past is so limited.
Agreed. I wasn't suggesting that we haven't been hit or that we never will, just that its not as common as other coastlines in the subtropics. I understand that we have dealt with plenty of storms and are likely due to take a big hit in our lifetimes, but there are certainly other areas that deal with much much more.
Thats all. ;D
Remember this headline from last year:
LEON, Nicaragua, May 29 (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Alma, the first cyclone of the Americas hurricane season, slammed into Nicaragua's Pacific coast on Thursday, its winds toppling trees and ripping roofs off flimsy homes.
So, I'm thinking we could see one as early as next week. Is anybody watching now?
This is such a depressing thread. My not so old roof leaked last year with mere TS. I do not want to think about Hurricane :( but there will still come. BTW, do we have a record when did the first named storm happen each year?
Agree, fatcat. My brand new roof leaked 'with one mere TS' as well last year.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst: one of the best things we all can do.
Each year gets its own page in the wiki. But for a list of names, aggregated by year, I'm sure you can find something on the web. Just google hurricane season names perhaps? I don't think there's a page for 2010 yet :( .
With the possibility of a weak to moderate El Nino event coming later this summer and into the fall, this could curb some action. I'm sticking with June 27th as the earliest we see anything really form. Subtropicals do not coun, even if given a name.
An area of showers and thunderstorms is over the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba, in association with a trough of low pressure. The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF global dynamical computer models continue to forecast that this disturbance will develop into an extratropical low by Tuesday. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it lifts northwestward over Florida.
And they are sending out the hurricane hunter! Yeah!
NHC canceled the hurricane recon mission for today because the area of low pressure over the Bahamas is being absorbed by the non-tropical low over Florida. Still should be a wind wet couple of days.
Man, this rain is going to be around for a while then. We sure need it though.
http://www.jacksonville.com/news/metro/2009-05-29/story/poll_finds_public_not_ready_for_hurricane
QuotePoll finds public not ready for hurricane
Fewer coastal residents feel threatened or plan any safety measures.
By Carole Fader Story updated at 4:35 AM on Friday, May. 29, 2009
The Florida Times-Union
Hurricane season begins Monday. So does the apathy.
And this year, we're even more apathetic than before.
Despite five hurricanes of Category 3 or stronger last year, most coastal residents from Maine to Texas don't feel threatened by a hurricane and aren't adequately prepared for one, according to a Mason-Dixon poll released Thursday.
"Many behavioral polls show that people choose not to pay too much attention to hurricane season," said Marty Senterfitt, chief of emergency preparedness for the city of Jacksonville. "They think it will happen to someone else, not me."
The Mason-Dixon poll shows that 66 percent have no hurricane survival kit and 55 percent don't have a family disaster plan.
And even though the number of hurricanes has increased over the last decade, the number of people who feel no threat from storms actually rose - to 62 percent from 54 percent the previous year, The Miami Herald reported.
The poll also found that 16 percent mistakenly think the government will provide food, water and shelter immediately after a storm.
"That's a stunning number," Ron Sachs, coordinator for the National Hurricane Survival Initiative, told the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. "It's a minority who believe someone's going to come and take care of them."
Government officials say they don't have the resources to immediately help all those in need. That is why the Federal Emergency Management Agency urges each family to take responsibility for its own survival, the Sun-Sentinel reported.
Sachs' group is a public-private project that focuses on hurricane-vulnerable states to promote storm preparedness. It commissioned the Mason-Dixon poll of 1,100 adults from 18 Gulf and Atlantic coastal states who were interviewed between May 6 and 11. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Some of the poll's other key results:
83 percent of respondents have taken no steps to make their homes stronger.
48 percent have no flood insurance and 15 percent are not sure if their policy covers flood damage.
21 percent did not know their home insurance policy number or how to reach their agent or carrier.
13 percent said they would not evacuate even if ordered to do so.
Jacksonville's emergency preparedness team is focusing on community outreach and speaking engagements to inform people about storm readiness. Getting people's attention is the same struggle every year.
"Unfortunately, when we have tropical storms and they miss us, people think that's all hurricane season is," Senterfitt said.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association has predicted the 2009 season will be near normal this year with a 70 percent chance of having nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes of category 3, 4 or 5.
"Hearing that it's going to be an 'average' season causes people to relax," Senterfitt said. "They hear average season, not active season. They might not remember that Andrew [a Category 5 hurricane] hit in a slow season."
The poll also pointed out that coastal residents still have many gaps in knowledge:
97 percent didn't know that garage doors are the structural component most likely to fail during a hurricane. Property owners can easily strengthen garage doors at low cost with a reinforcement kit.
70 percent didn't know that storm surge represents the greatest potential for a large loss of life from a hurricane, yet storm surge can account for deaths as far inland as 20 miles.
56 percent of residents believed candles or kerosene lamps are suggested items for their survival kits. Emergency experts actually warn that these items can pose a serious fire hazard.
51 percent believed masking tape would keep windows from shattering. In reality, masking tape provides no protective value at all.
The key for residents is to learn their risk, Senterfitt advised.
"Know if you live in an evacuation zone, for instance. In a survey done of our coastal counties, only 42 percent in Duval County knew if they lived in an evacuation zone. If we tell people to evacuate and 60 percent don't realize we're talking to them, we've got a big problem," he said. "And on the other side, if people leave who don't need to leave and they tie up the roads, we've got another issue.
"Yes, the chance of getting hit by a hurricane here is probably small," he went on. "But when one hits, the results are devastating. We can't take these things lightly."
carole.fader@jacksonville.com, (904) 359-4635
Quote from: reednavy on May 14, 2009, 09:39:58 AM
With the possibility of a weak to moderate El Nino event coming later this summer and into the fall, this could curb some action. I'm sticking with June 27th as the earliest we see anything really form. Subtropicals do not coun, even if given a name.
Why not? Are you just saying? Because in that case, I'm just saying I nailed the date. Again. ;)
I said something in the last week of May. Just FYI as I pat my back.
But, seriously, some subtropical storms have caused a lot of damage.
And, Ana, is the further north forming storm ever.
Um, TD#1 never got named.
Wasn't it subtropical in nature?
nope, full on trpoical as it was over the north wall of the Gulf Stream. It will be no longer after tomorrow morning.
may I suggest we predict the first named storm? It does not matter what category it is in. If it has a name. It counts. The date is the date it got named. My bet is June 24th.
TDs don't get named until they become TSs, no?
correct
Quote from: fatcat on May 29, 2009, 06:09:12 PM
may I suggest we predict the first named storm? It does not matter what category it is in. If it has a name. It counts. The date is the date it got named. My bet is June 24th.
I'll go with June 17th for Ana to appear.
After referring to the the magik 8-ball, it has been determined that Ana will form the 1st week of July. Asking the specfic date yielded July 3. So, I'm going with the MagiK Ball's date of July 3.
Just tossing this out there. Keep an eye open to the weather over the next week as the two systems in the C. Atlantic, per model guidance, are looking at threatening FL. The first being old TD #2, which has blossomed back to life and may get reclassified tonight or tomorrow and if it comes to fruition will approach the EC of the state by late next week, Thurs-Sat. time frame. The 2nd system, behind it, could pose a threat by early the following week, if guidance stays consistent, which it has for the past 2 days.
Regards, your KNIP/NAS Jax meteorologist
Thats a big if there Reed. Too much wind shear and dust to disrupt things right now.
It is noted that Ana is currently struggling with mid level dry air, as evidenced by the recent exposure of the LLC. Note that the low level stratocumulus deck, associated with a building subtropical ridge, has expanded. It is currently impinging on the western semicircle of the system, and Ana is entraining the dry air as a result. However, since the upper air environment remains favorable (and will become more conducive), I believe that the current trends are temporal. As Ana progresses westward, we should witness further intensification within 24-36 hours
Huh? Excuse me while I swab the low level stratocumulus deck. Aye aye, cap'n.
What tv channel am I on?
Oh well, can't win em all. Later Ana.
Quote from: reednavy on August 16, 2009, 11:27:55 AM
Oh well, can't win em all. Later Ana.
She's fighting and losing. However, her energy might stay together some. Interesting that some models are still showing some redevelopment.
Quote from: Jason on June 01, 2009, 09:38:06 AM
Quote from: fatcat on May 29, 2009, 06:09:12 PM
may I suggest we predict the first named storm? It does not matter what category it is in. If it has a name. It counts. The date is the date it got named. My bet is June 24th.
I'll go with June 17th for Ana to appear.
Hmmmm.... guess my predictions were a bit off.
Quote from: Jason on August 17, 2009, 01:46:59 PM
Quote from: Jason on June 01, 2009, 09:38:06 AM
Quote from: fatcat on May 29, 2009, 06:09:12 PM
may I suggest we predict the first named storm? It does not matter what category it is in. If it has a name. It counts. The date is the date it got named. My bet is June 24th.
I'll go with June 17th for Ana to appear.
Hmmmm.... guess my predictions were a bit off.
for about 2 months ;)
^ :) I'm still holding onto my original storm count though!!
Did that storm count include a land fall in Cali? Lol
No way. The title of the thread is 2009 *Atlantic* hurricane season. :)
My bad. I stand corrected. That storm is hurricane Jimena--not an Atlantic storm. Thank goodness she weakened.
Oh, no doubt. She was a Cat-5 for a while, no? She's down to Cat-3 as of the 8 PM update.
In the meantime, Erika is new in the Atlantic. Meandering Tropical Storm who's not in much of a hurry to go anywhere. I know September is typically the peak of the season, IIRC, but 5 named storms at this point? Weak (and delightfully so) season.
Eat that, Colorado State!
Seriously. This must be the year of the down grade. But, I remember a few years back. There were torrential rains + massive fires--then Katrina. So, I'm thinking we are not in the clear yet. I'd hate for the 'big one' to hit this year. Again.
God is angry...we are due soon. :)