Usually go almost entirely off the internets for Lent, but have still been following the things.
Gotta say, the bigger the sample size gets, the more I start to think that Donna Deegan may end up quietly being the best mayor of the 21st century thus far in Jax.
Couple of things in particular I'm loving;
1. She's moving quickly on parks and infrastructure. Not only was Friendship Fountain taken from site of nuclear disaster to functioning park in a few short months, but I am shocked to see how far along the Artist's Walk skate park already is as well. I like the short-term budget shift out of Shipyards West and into Riverfront Plaza (which is also picking up steam, construction wise) to ensure RP gets finished better and more quickly. And I've got confidence it won't come at the long-term expense of Shipyards West (not sure it can anyway with the terms of the land swap). Really, really hoping that we find funding to build the proposed restaurant spaces at Riverfront Plaza, Friendship Park, and eventually, the food hall at Shipyards West. Assuming they're well maintained and programmed, these parks (and the Emerald Trail) should go a long way toward eventually attracting development that doesn't have to be as heavily subsidized as it has been in the past.
2. She's more concerned with getting things done than getting the credit. With Curry, every accomplishment was marked with "I promised this," and "I did that." If you watch closely at events like the Fountain unveiling and the Emerald Trail announcement, the first thing Donna is doing is sharing the credit. Whether it be with Daryl Joseph, the DIA, or even JTA, it's a sign of great leadership, character, and confidence that she doesn't feel the need to use every accomplishment as a personal flex for public validation.
3. She's helping to secure outside funding. Pretty wild to see all the outside money coming in lately. Almost $150 million for the Emerald Trail. $150 million already committed from the state to the UF Grad School, with another $80 million potentially on the way. A $1 million grant for the Jacksonville Public Library (its largest private grant ever) to beef up its African American History Collection. MOSH getting $10 million from CSX. Plenty of credit to go around, obviously, but there's a definitely a pattern of wins emerging already under her leadership.
4. She's diversifying our economy. Where past administrations have funneled large incentive packages and handouts to a handful of predictable, politically connected entities, she's really pushing the small business initiative hard. She's making a push for semiconductor production through the state and UF. And she's the first mayor that I can recall since moving here in the early 2000s that's making a hard push to incentivize film and television production in Jacksonville, rather than places like Georgia.
Love that she appears to be surrounding herself with mostly smart individuals, doing a lot of listening, consciously making an effort to solicit and consider the public's opinions vs the political donors, and then acting decisively.
Other random, non-mayoral things I'm feeling really optimistic about in the last five weeks or so.
1. Almost everyone that I've talked to connected to the stadium negotiations seems to be very optimistic. A large element of the public is never going to be happy with subsidizing the NFL, but I think a liveable agreement is on the horizon, free of most of the murky and shady nonsense that sank Lot J. Also happy to hear that talks involving the badly needed sports and entertainment district are again progressing alongside stadium talks. We'll have more leverage negotiating with the Jags on that as part of the stadium agreement than we will after the fact. A big part of returning part of our public stadium investment will be attracting new festivals and events, and we can't do that with a stadium that's an island unto itself.
2. Four Seasons is actually coming out of the ground. No idea if there's a market there to support it, but if there was ever any doubt about whether this thing is actually happening, drive by and you'll see the staging for yourself. This site will be soon be the most active construction zone in the city. A flagship luxury hotel, new marina, upgraded Metro Park, office complex, and retail and restaurant offerings will be super intriguing in that slot. Not sure what occupancy and ADR levels are necessary for sustainability, but having worked with Visit Jax in the past and seeing just how many luxury room nights were being lost for big events to Amelia Island and PVB, I think there's a great opportunity here to keep that business in Jax.
3. Gateway Jax continues to push forward with approvals and ancillary plans. Bryan Moll seems like one of the sharpest outside dudes to enter the market in decades. Really think this one could be catalytic, particularly if he's able to bring a grocer like Publix into the urban core. We can't really control the Southeast's and Choat's of the city and I'm not holding my breath for movement at either the Trio, or Berkman, but this one seems really solid and really big.
4. UF is becoming more real, with a metric shit ton of state money attached, buy in from the governor, a formal list of programs, and genuine enthusiasm from UF. UNF is a great university with a great value prop, but Jacksonville has long lacked a truly prestigious higher ed presence. Having UF here offering bleeding edge education in AI and machine learning, even if it's only 1,500 students, will be huge for the city without cannibalizing students from our more important local university. As a gent who went the remote Georgia Tech route to pursue a masters in advanced analytics/machine learning, I'm kind of bummed I didn't wait to pursue it locally. Sounds like the word is also on that UF is highly considering the Prime Osborne itself, not the Prime Osborne area, for campus space. Hated it at first, for the obvious implications to rail transit, but if there a way to make both work in that space, I'm actually warming to it, particularly if it forces our hand into a more realistic, market appropriate convention center solution. Would still prefer the Main Street location. Can't see a universe where the Fairgrounds wins out.
5. Not downtown related, but if the new soccer group is able to succeed with their plan for stadium location (not my news to share, unfortunately), I think it would be fantastic for the city, if not quite as fantastic for the Armada. Soccer remains such a huge opportunity locally, if done right.
Things I'm watching closely:
1. How we do adjust for the estimated $100 million shortfall to the general fund next year?
2. What's the holdup with Whole Foods in Brooklyn? I assume it's temporary and related to creek restoration, but in today's uncertain economy, you hate to see anything held up for this long. Whole Foods and the long planned Hub development will really continue the momentum we're seeing in Brooklyn. New taco place in the Black Sheep spot will be awesome too. Have been to the location in Nashville and Atlanta, great place.
3. With the $150 million federal grant for the Emerald Trail, where does the gas tax money end up going? Ideally, the grant would be on top of our City Council approved local contribution to the Emerald Trail, not a replacement for it. That extra money should be used incrementally for improvements and upkeep. Nat Ford made a somewhat curious statement after securing the grant about instead using a portion of the gas tax money for other JTA projects that were facing higher than expected costs due to inflation. Biggest way we could squander a historic federal grant would be to allow the JTA to Trojan horse our local Emerald Trail dollars back into the U2C to offset ballooning costs there. We can't let this happen.
4. When does the ask come down for Phase 2 of the Four Seasons/Shipyards project, and what does it look like from a public perspective. Conspicuously absent from Phase 1 is parking, and there's currently no concrete plan in place for where office users will park when the new building opens. Sounds like a garage-heavy Phase 2 just west of Phase 1 is on the horizon. Gonna be a tough sell with a reduced budget and other big ticket projects.
Big picture, I'm personally feeling super optimistic about where we're heading.
Night and day versus prior administration.
All great points. I've said before that this administration has been a refreshing dose of realistic optimism compared to the last. Obviously that's come with some pain (the Ford on Bay and River View Plaza) but being able to turn those setbacks into plans we can afford (like the convention center) and the confidence to get things done is going to pay dividends in the long run.
Watching the city finally start leaning on willing state and federal partners is going to make a huge difference as those major projects start to take shape. I think we're going to be surprised even still by how big a deal it will be to have a major urban university campus in the heart of the city, wherever in downtown it goes. If that then gets compounded by major investments in healthcare and tech, we'll be well on the way to finally establishing a strong niche for outside investment.
I really hope there's a change of sentiment about how this city handles mass transit, though. We're clearly too big to rely on buses alone (as the Flyer has proven) and I'd hate to see all this momentum get rocked by letting the U2C unfold. Every competing city is making big investments into transit and I worry that Jacksonville's growth will be impacted by failing to take it seriously. The money is there for making the big steps forward on fixed transit if we are willing to get out of this autonomous box. The fact that no one in leadership is willing to make that case really concerns me.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on March 30, 2024, 01:29:57 PMThe money is there for making the big steps forward on fixed transit if we are willing to get out of this autonomous box. The fact that no one in leadership is willing to make that case really concerns me.
This is an absolute
imperative.I'm praying that silence on the U2C from the new administration is less an explicit endorsement of the system, and more the reality of JTA's autonomy and the need to exercise some patient diplomacy to get it scrapped.
Even if you discount how half-baked, risky, and distrusted autonomous vehicle tech is; and even if you completely ignore the fact that big tech like Amazon (Zoox), Google (Waymo), and GM (Cruise) are years ahead of JTA, have economies of scale they'll never be able to match, and will be able to duplicate anything the U2C does cheaper and more efficiently, the problem with this whole thing is simple:
The U2C is a solution in search of a problem.
Good article here proposing 4 key questions that a transit agency should ask themselves before undertaking a project like U2C:
https://ridewithvia.com/news/the-top-four-questions-to-ask-before-investing-in-microtransit
I won't go into all four (though it's worth a read), but will touch on what the experts say is the single most important question to ask:
What are the specific goals of the system? What existing problem is it attempting to solve?Before doing anything, it's important to frame the challenges that microtransit is going to solve. What is the pressing need for this type of service? ... Whether it's increasing public transportation ridership, decreasing congestion, reducing the number of vehicles parked at local transit hubs, or giving residents or essential workers a more accessible way to travel, it's important to have measurable goals before launching your microtransit service.To me, this remains a glaring lapse of judgement from all parties involved. I've yet to see one compelling argument made, or even attempted to be made, about where the actual
need exists for this half-billion dollar network of driverless cars looping downtown Jacksonville. There's no problem with congestion. There's no shortage of parking. The streets are pedestrian friendly. We have a riverwalk connecting everything. What problem exists downtown that is severe enough to warrant throwing nearly our entire public transit budget behind it? What is the concrete goal of this system, and what other, less risky, less expensive options exist? What is truly lost if we spend $2 million on four electric buses, have them loop the same route that the U2C would with 3-5 minute headways, and deployed the $498 million saved into Phase I of a fixed transit system?
A second key question the article posits is:
What happens if you do nothing?Does public transportation ridership, along with the associated revenue, continue to decline, leading to increasingly challenging budget and transit situations? For most cities, the do-nothing scenario ends with more congestion, more vehicle emissions, and less equity for residents. Good public transportation is about so much more than traffic; it's about impacting job opportunities, safety, and overall quality of life for residents. When doing nothing is no longer an option, it's time to consider what's next.Personally, I believe the negative impact of not building the U2C is virtually non-existent. Aside from having to pay back some federal grants, we lose NOTHING by not building the U2C. The economics and realities of a downtown people mover built around smartphones will ultimately make it a system for the affluent. Let them Uber or walk instead and save our transit money for those who actually need it.
I really don't even hate the idea of JTA operated AVs. Robovans could make sense for first-mile/last-mile, circling neighborhoods like Springfield, Riverside, the East Side, and San Marco and feeding them into a larger, scalable fixed system like street car or rail. Where they make zero sense due to their speed, capacity, and TOD limitations is
as the system itself.
Pull the plug on the U2C, use the money for fixed transit.
The ONLY people who stand to benefit from the U2C as currently devised are a handful of JTA executives looking to pad their resume and doubling-down on a bad idea as the technology continues to demonstrate that it's not ready for prime time.
Ask California, where driverless taxis are dragging pedestrians beneath them (https://www.theverge.com/2023/8/15/23831170/robotaxi-cpuc-sf-waymo-cruise-traffic-halt), ramming into firetrucks (https://www.theverge.com/2023/8/18/23837217/cruise-robotaxi-driverless-crash-fire-truck-san-francisco), striking bicyclists (https://www.theverge.com/2024/2/7/24065063/waymo-driverless-car-strikes-bicyclist-san-francisco-injuries), being set on fire by protestors (https://www.theverge.com/2024/2/11/24069251/waymo-driverless-taxi-fire-vandalized-video-san-francisco-china-town), and failing safety tests in shocking numbers (https://www.theverge.com/2024/3/12/24098394/iihs-partial-automated-test-rank-ford-gm-tesla).
As a growing city with checkered mass transit success historically, we're not at liberty to reinvent the wheel. Stick with proven technology with a track record of spurring ridership, economic development, and equity. It just doesn't need to be so damn complicated.
Quote from: Ken_FSU on March 30, 2024, 02:34:57 PM
Quote from: marcuscnelson on March 30, 2024, 01:29:57 PMThe money is there for making the big steps forward on fixed transit if we are willing to get out of this autonomous box. The fact that no one in leadership is willing to make that case really concerns me.
This is an absolute imperative.
I'm praying that silence on the U2C from the new administration is less an explicit endorsement of the system, and more the reality of JTA's autonomy and the need to exercise some patient diplomacy to get it scrapped.
I would hope, but the occasional sign (https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/investigates/2021-emails-show-fdot-concerns-over-jacksonville-transportation-authoritys-autonomous-vehicle-plan/JQLYRBNHHFFGLEGU2C7LFDCYKE/) I do see does not give me confidence:
QuoteAction News Jax has reached out to the offices of Jacksonville Mayor Donna Deegan and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for their thoughts on the project. Deegan has made her support of the project and Ford very clear, calling him a "visionary" in December. Deegan's office shared the following statement with Action News Jax:
"We aren't aware of those specific concerns. Based on the facts that have been presented to us, we have confidence in Nat Ford, the JTA board, and this project."
Quote from: Ken_FSU on March 30, 2024, 02:34:57 PM
What are the specific goals of the system? What existing problem is it attempting to solve?
Before doing anything, it's important to frame the challenges that microtransit is going to solve. What is the pressing need for this type of service? ... Whether it's increasing public transportation ridership, decreasing congestion, reducing the number of vehicles parked at local transit hubs, or giving residents or essential workers a more accessible way to travel, it's important to have measurable goals before launching your microtransit service.
To me, this remains a glaring lapse of judgement from all parties involved. I've yet to see one compelling argument made, or even attempted to be made, about where the actual need exists for this half-billion dollar network of driverless cars looping downtown Jacksonville. There's no problem with congestion. There's no shortage of parking. The streets are pedestrian friendly. We have a riverwalk connecting everything. What problem exists downtown that is severe enough to warrant throwing nearly our entire public transit budget behind it? What is the concrete goal of this system, and what other, less risky, less expensive options exist? What is truly lost if we spend $2 million on four electric buses, have them loop the same route that the U2C would with 3-5 minute headways, and deployed the $498 million saved into Phase I of a fixed transit system?
I think from a long-term perspective, there are many potential problems that could be addressed with transit. We're pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into the Shipyards and stadium districts, where we will need workers and visitors to be able to access in an increasingly populated Downtown. We might eventually establish intercity rail from LaVilla to St. Augustine and Miami, the users of which will not have a car when they arrive. A college campus is generally full of students that don't usually have their own car.
One day, people may want to travel from far away to Everbank Stadium for a Jaguars game, and removing those people from gameday traffic (especially with new bars and other places for them to go) would be ideal. Or visitors staying at the Four Seasons while attending a conference at the Hyatt or wherever the convention center goes (which should be the Hyatt) might want a convenient way of moving between the two without basking in the summer heat. Students might want to go from campus to the Elbow for a few (too many) drinks. We might decide to build venues like Shipyards West Park and MOSH with relatively little direct parking for the number of potential visitors, and instead encourage people to ride to visit them, like once envisioned.
Of course, if you're expecting many visitors and workers, you would want to invest in a solution that has the capacity to carry them outside of car traffic, especially late at night when events are wrapping up. That naturally draws one's eye to the elevated transit system that doesn't currently reach those places, but already exists in part and could benefit from a relatively small expansion to key nodes.
What doesn't make
any sense is why you would look at these venues and investments and then propose small vehicles that would run in traffic and completely lose the economy of scale you gain from running transit.
Quote from: Ken_FSU on March 30, 2024, 02:34:57 PM
What happens if you do nothing?
Does public transportation ridership, along with the associated revenue, continue to decline, leading to increasingly challenging budget and transit situations? For most cities, the do-nothing scenario ends with more congestion, more vehicle emissions, and less equity for residents. Good public transportation is about so much more than traffic; it's about impacting job opportunities, safety, and overall quality of life for residents. When doing nothing is no longer an option, it's time to consider what's next.
Personally, I believe the negative impact of not building the U2C is virtually non-existent. Aside from having to pay back some federal grants, we lose NOTHING by not building the U2C. The economics and realities of a downtown people mover built around smartphones will ultimately make it a system for the affluent. Let them Uber or walk instead and save our transit money for those who actually need it.
There's a saying that an advanced city is not one where even the poor use cars, but rather one where even the rich use public transport. That doesn't mean building transit specifically for rich people, it means building transit that is useful for everyone. Residents, workers, visitors, even people who could drive but choose not to. We're certainly risking crossing the line at this point, but we are not quite "in too deep" to avoid wasting half a billion dollars on "transit" that is so useless that none of these major developments even mention it as being significant in any way.
I've said it before, "Keep, Modernize, Expand" wasn't a bad idea in 2015 and it still isn't now. What is a bad idea is investing in making things worse in an attempt to bet against Downtown's potential. There are plenty of opportunities to make some common sense expansions with proven technology to make the Skyway useful for trips near and around Downtown and then focus on a larger, faster regional network.
Quote from: Ken_FSU on March 30, 2024, 12:27:56 PM
1. I like the short-term budget shift out of Shipyards West and into Riverfront Plaza (which is also picking up steam, construction wise) to ensure RP gets finished better and more quickly. And I've got confidence it won't come at the long-term expense of Shipyards West (not sure it can anyway with the terms of the land swap). Really, really hoping that we find funding to build the proposed restaurant spaces at Riverfront Plaza, Friendship Park, and eventually, the food hall at Shipyards West. Assuming they're well maintained and programmed, these parks (and the Emerald Trail) should go a long way toward eventually attracting development that doesn't have to be as heavily subsidized as it has been in the past.
I share your longterm optimism re: our riverfront public spaces and definitely agree there's been an increased urgency.
However, I don't think the lay person understands that, as of now, there is only an actionable plan to build half of Riverfront Plaza. The West half. The East half design and infrastructure was tied to the American Lions tower, which was highly highly dubious from the beginning. The tower is now scrapped, of course. The plan is to RFP that development site again, which, if history is an indiactor, is a yearS long process from start to finish. So, on the current track, you're looking at several more years until the East half of the park is complete, design unknown. We've deviated quite a bit from the Perkins & Will design presented to the public and chosen by the selection committee. I would hope Riverfront Plaza would be finished by the end of the Mayor's (first?) term, as it would be a tangible, highly visible feather in cap. But it certainly doesn't seem like it's tracking that way. Also, of note: public input and fast progress are not contradictory. Perhaps we wouldn't have wasted so much time being catfished into planning around a 44 story tower in the park, if informed public input was taken into consideration during that decision making process. But I digress...
Quote from: Ken_FSU on March 30, 2024, 12:27:56 PM
3. With the $150 million federal grant for the Emerald Trail, where does the gas tax money end up going? Ideally, the grant would be on top of our City Council approved local contribution to the Emerald Trail, not a replacement for it. That extra money should be used incrementally for improvements and upkeep. Nat Ford made a somewhat curious statement after securing the grant about instead using a portion of the gas tax money for other JTA projects that were facing higher than expected costs due to inflation. Biggest way we could squander a historic federal grant would be to allow the JTA to Trojan horse our local Emerald Trail dollars back into the U2C to offset ballooning costs there. We can't let this happen.
The gas tax money will stay with the Emerald Trail to ensure it can be built, in the event of cost overuns. Any LOGT funds not spent on the Emerald Trail will potentially be used by JTA to fund complete streets projects that still need funding.
Agreed with you fsu813. My biggest issue with the parks is the lack of overall coordination. We have had several different iterations (as mentioned) and the likelihood that the parks open within some time period of one another doesn't seem possible. What seems to be the case now is that we are finishing up the parks that Curry admin couldn't complete, but started (lol). There is more attention there now, but I bet the parks will be completed over a stagger of 5+ years, just given the industries involved.
Not sure how I like that plan. I've argued for a while now that you need the living population there to sustain those green spaces.. even Gateway Phase 1 won't be leasing until 2026.. not to mention Phase 2 & any other developments in planning. My only point is, we should really be focused on timing up these things. No point in having all this DT park space without the proper mechanisms to keep them as attractive places to spend time.
Quote from: thelakelander on March 30, 2024, 09:26:47 PM
Quote from: Ken_FSU on March 30, 2024, 12:27:56 PM
3. With the $150 million federal grant for the Emerald Trail, where does the gas tax money end up going? Ideally, the grant would be on top of our City Council approved local contribution to the Emerald Trail, not a replacement for it. That extra money should be used incrementally for improvements and upkeep. Nat Ford made a somewhat curious statement after securing the grant about instead using a portion of the gas tax money for other JTA projects that were facing higher than expected costs due to inflation. Biggest way we could squander a historic federal grant would be to allow the JTA to Trojan horse our local Emerald Trail dollars back into the U2C to offset ballooning costs there. We can't let this happen.
The gas tax money will stay with the Emerald Trail to ensure it can be built, in the event of cost overuns. Any LOGT funds not spent on the Emerald Trail will potentially be used by JTA to fund complete streets projects that still need funding.
To add in here, the trail in its entirety will cost far more than $150 million now. The restoration of Hogan's Creek was a separate piece, but can be tied together - plus there's now a realignment of the Arlington Expressway as it comes to grade in downtown to allow for daylighting of the creek.
^Yes, the Hogans Creek restoration and expressway realignment aren't included. Combined, they actually cost more than the entire Emerald Trail project itself.