I found myself today thinking about something I'd seen from Nate Monroe on Twitter (https://twitter.com/NateMonroeTU/status/1671934095142666265?s=20) about the DIA choosing to "bunt" the Laura Trio decision to City Council. It then occurred to me that we've just passed the ten year anniversary of the DIA selecting (https://www.metrojacksonville.com/article/2013-jun-downtown-investment-authority-selects-ceo) its first CEO, Aundra Wallace.
I think it's safe to say looking back that the DIA hasn't quite produced the results we were hoping for out of downtown, especially in the economic upturn pre-COVID. So the question I have for you all is: with the benefit of hindsight, what should the DIA look like in the future, especially with the chance for change under Mayor Deegan?
Is Nate Monroe right, should the DIA's powers be expanded to be fully responsible for downtown, with City Council's only influence being the board selections and an overall budget? Or is the status quo good enough with some minor tweaks? Or perhaps the DIA should go the way of the DDA and a new system be implemented? What do you think?
The DIA should be led and staffed by people with a thick (virtual) Rolodex of national and international investors and developers, and a proven track record of revitalizing a major urban area in a comparable city. Definition of insanity is to install people from within who have historically been a bigger part of the problem than the solution. There's room on the staff for someone like Lori Boyer to be working on code ordinances and legislation dealing with the preservation fund, but there's no universe where the DIA should be led by someone with no track record of large scale success and who doesn't even seem to understand what a master plan is. Time is too precious and dollars are too scarce.
I think the issues are not just how DIA performs, but also the ecosystem in which it operates in.
To begin with, there is a fundamental flaw in DIA only being concerned with the artificial boundaries of "Downtown" and not taking a more holistic view of how to engage the larger metro area in connecting with Downtown. It basically acts as if Downtown is apart from the rest of NE Florida and I think that is a big mistake. Sometimes, I think it should be specialized division of the Planning Department if we could find a way to keep it out from under the thumbs of the politicos in City Hall.
Examples of better integration would include better transit connectivity with the surrounding urban core and, addressing another issue, stronger coordination with Public Works, FDOT, JTA and the NFTPO. The Emerald Trail (which I don't even see DIA as being a leader on) is a step in the right direction but it is just a toe in the water to what should be done.
Making the boundaries of Downtown more seamless would likely also help to overcome the psychological impediments many area residents have about "going Downtown."
DIA should be better integrated with other facets of the City such as cultural institutions, Visit Jacksonville, the Jax Historical Society, the hotel and restaurant associations, parks, nonprofits, community organizers, neighborhood associations and others (beyond just the Jaguars and money hungry developers). And, as stated above, it needs to better connect dots with other agencies at the local, state and Federal levels.
Most importantly, DIA needs to show the community a clear vision/plan for Downtown that reflects wide community inputs (not just what its staff and consultants think are best), be more disciplined about sticking to such a plan over a long period of time and not fawn over the developer rendering/project of the day. If developers don't comply with the master plan, we need to say "sorry" and move on. In support of this, there needs to be best-in-class downtown zoning regarding street engagement and aesthetics, green spaces, setbacks, height restrictions, architecture, scale, historic preservation, etc., not some random walk with developers.
We also need to say that we will incentivize developers by investing in community infrastructure that supports their project rather than "investing" directly into the project. This would not only benefit the developers but the entire community and, hopefully, leverage such investments to support further development in the area (i,e, a multiplier effect) creating some real momentum. The lone exception is incentives for historic structures and such incentives should be based on either multiple contractor bids shared with DIA or a 3rd party audit of the single bid contractor.
The DIA board needs to be more diverse, and maybe enlarged, and include people not just tied to development, construction or real estate, but also representative of business owners, residents, nonprofits, environmentalists, historians, accountants, financial analysts, etc. Members should be representative of being a Jax resident for from 5 years to decades. Terms should be staggered so that people are going to be selected by more than one mayor/city council over time, insuring the board isn't reflecting one mayor/city council's "philosophy" over downtown.
The above may not be all that should be addressed but it would be a good start.
^Excellent!
Great post, longtimer. If I may emphasize a few points:
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on July 09, 2023, 09:47:42 PM
Examples of better integration would include better transit connectivity with the surrounding urban core and, addressing another issue, stronger coordination with Public Works, FDOT, JTA and the NFTPO. The Emerald Trail (which I don't even see DIA as being a leader on) is a step in the right direction but it is just a toe in the water to what should be done.
I've been struck by how little mobility appears to be a consideration for the DIA. Especially in an urban setting, one of the first questions with anything is how one is to get around, and very simply downtown isn't going to succeed if the answer is going to be driving alone for the foreseeable future. We're all well aware about the issues with two-way streets so I won't stress that but the fact that there's been this arduous process during all of the DIA's existence about the future of transit downtown and yet they've demonstrated little to no interest in its impact on their work is quite concerning. Personally I think the scooter program is good but there has to be somewhere (safe!) to ride them and they haven't delivered on that. As you identified, the Emerald Trail is largely being handled by other agencies, but that shouldn't have to mean that they are completely hands-off.
Quote
DIA should be better integrated with other facets of the City such as cultural institutions, Visit Jacksonville, the Jax Historical Society, the hotel and restaurant associations, parks, nonprofits, community organizers, neighborhood associations and others (beyond just the Jaguars and money hungry developers). And, as stated above, it needs to better connect dots with other agencies at the local, state and Federal levels.
Most importantly, DIA needs to show the community a clear vision/plan for Downtown that reflects wide community inputs (not just what its staff and consultants think are best), be more disciplined about sticking to such a plan over a long period of time and not fawn over the developer rendering/project of the day. If developers don't comply with the master plan, we need to say "sorry" and move on. In support of this, there needs to be best-in-class downtown zoning regarding street engagement and aesthetics, green spaces, setbacks, height restrictions, architecture, scale, historic preservation, etc., not some random walk with developers.
I've thought somewhat about this lately, and it does seem like a lot of the issues revolve around the DIA's strange inability to actually have a
plan, despite their protests that things like the below graphic somehow represent one. My thought has been that it should actually be pretty easy to build something downtown, provided it fits the master plan. We know how precarious the business cycle can be, and the last thing we should be doing is dragging out projects long enough for them to fail.
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/847298939618590760/1127818119235256320/01-Master-Plan-Graphic_Reduced-PDF.png)
Quote
We also need to say that we will incentivize developers by investing in community infrastructure that supports their project rather than "investing" directly into the project. This would not only benefit the developers but the entire community and, hopefully, leverage such investments to support further development in the area (i,e, a multiplier effect) creating some real momentum. The lone exception is incentives for historic structures and such incentives should be based on either multiple contractor bids shared with DIA or a 3rd party audit of the single bid contractor.
I can certainly imagine the challenge in committing to a change like this, especially when it will likely change the kinds of developers who choose to develop downtown.
A related thought that comes to mind is the manner in which we choose to support development citywide. I've been confused over and over again about how we struggle to find willing developers to build downtown or in its closest surrounding neighborhoods, where we can afford to build robust transit and quality parks, and yet we provide city incentives for apartments out by the airport (https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2023/may/10/city-council-approves-75-million-avion-apartments-tax-refund/), and permit brand new subdivisions with septic tanks (https://news.wjct.org/first-coast/2021-03-01/hazouri-says-despite-phase-out-new-jax-homes-can-still-be-built-with-septic-tanks). Like a lot of problems, including ones beyond Jacksonville, we seem to incentivize bad behaviors and then find ourselves shocked by bad outcomes.
Quote
The DIA board needs to be more diverse, and maybe enlarged, and include people not just tied to development, construction or real estate, but also representative of business owners, residents, nonprofits, environmentalists, historians, accountants, financial analysts, etc. Members should be representative of being a Jax resident for from 5 years to decades. Terms should be staggered so that people are going to be selected by more than one mayor/city council over time, insuring the board isn't reflecting one mayor/city council's "philosophy" over downtown.
This was in a sense what I was wondering about when I created this thread. Whether the DIA should evolve into an organization that is truly, personally responsible for downtown's future to a degree that means city council is largely focused on other issues or take a different path. Obviously there's still plenty that could go wrong but I could see such a change being interesting nonetheless.
There was a call for offers for a full block parcel near the Jags stadium recently.. there was a ton of interest at first.. maybe they are UC. I don't know honestly. Whoever the buyer is, it will be speculative.. and that's what is happening around downtown now. Just realistically the return per square foot is not there for projects outside of Brooklyn and the Southbank as of 7/2023. I think the DIA has done all it can, within the confines of market realities.
As much as I am not a fan of infinite REV grants, they are effective in helping get the ball rolling.. They have expanded those grants to small projects. They also do have quite a bit of authority to essentially negotiate city lands within their boundaries. I don't think it is a lack of power as much as it's an inability to make projects pencil out. Vestcor has been the biggest downtown developer, and they have only been able to do it through low-income benefits & incentives.
The items that need to be addressed, which are controversial I know, are: the crime, a plan for the jail, the public river space, and the jags stadium. Any developer is looking at those items more so than a few extra dollars of incentives. Rents just have not kept up with construction costs and that's why these new "asks" are insanely larger than previously requested for projects still 'happening.'
The DIA is doing all they can do.. there needs to be a more legitimate conversation about what is preventing the CC from coming together. It's holding everything else down with it. Once rents are reliably higher than $2.00 psf then conversations about smaller or denser projects become actually feasible. Right now they are kind of here and there in historic retrofits.
QuoteThere was a call for offers for a full block parcel near the Jags stadium recently
Which block was this?
Quote from: Jax_Developer on July 10, 2023, 08:18:59 AM
Once rents are reliably higher than $2.00 psf then conversations about smaller or denser projects become actually feasible. Right now they are kind of here and there in historic retrofits.
The way to get rents up is to create demand. The way to create demand is to make Downtown more desirable. The way to make Downtown more desirable is to offer amenities, activities and an environment people want to be engaged with*. DIA doesn't seem to focus on any of this, just making deals with developers with no holistic plan/vision for Downtown. Hence, the start and stop failings we see regularly resulting in little to no progress over decades.
Compare Downtown's ecosystem of 60 or more years ago today. Retail, night spots, restaurants, theaters, robust historic buildings, hotels, density... pretty much destroyed or gone. Night and day comparison. If we did more to incentivize via smart infrastructure, green spaces and aesthetic investments, along with disciplined planning and zoning, Downtown would be the most desirable part of the county and sub $2.00 rents would be hsitory.
DIA, or its replacement, should be empowered and focused more on the above than just making developers happy. The latter will happen if the former takes place and that is the change that is needed. The present approach is a demonstrated failure. We need to stop repeating what clearly doesn't work (JTA are you listening? ;D ).
*This brings up another thought, why is Downtown Vision not integrated with DIA. Another case of left hand and right hand not working the best together?
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on July 10, 2023, 12:06:56 PM
Quote from: Jax_Developer on July 10, 2023, 08:18:59 AM
Once rents are reliably higher than $2.00 psf then conversations about smaller or denser projects become actually feasible. Right now they are kind of here and there in historic retrofits.
The way to get rents up is to create demand. The way to create demand is to make Downtown more desirable. The way to make Downtown more desirable is to offer amenities, activities and an environment people want to be engaged with*
Name one highway overpass in downtown Jacksonville that looks like this?
(https://photos.smugmug.com/Cities/Columbus---July-2023/i-B3kK3pF/0/6ae3abf0/X3/20230709_125309-X3.jpg)
Name one park in downtown Jacksonville that looks like this?
(https://photos.smugmug.com/Cities/Columbus---July-2023/i-C93ggnC/0/7c75f08c/X3/20230707_180753-X3.jpg)
Name one commercial street in downtown Jacksonville that looks like this?
(https://photos.smugmug.com/Cities/Columbus---July-2023/i-jHP2LRG/0/2b908641/X3/20230707_143359-X3.jpg)
Name one place in downtown Jacksonville where you can take the kids to something like this?
(https://photos.smugmug.com/Cities/Columbus---July-2023/i-33gHJdH/0/3d29458d/X3/20230707_104456-X3.jpg)
100% agree that the little things like investing in our public realm, streets, parks, infrastructure, etc. are a necessary first step in building the type of environment that everyone wants to see. What's show in these images, come a dime a dozen in nearly every major city's downtown now. If we can't do anything else, we can get our public spaces right and activated into conditions are conductive to drawing a large cross section of people on a regular basis.
Someone has to pay to maintain all those things. Clearly Columbus is willing to pay.
It's a shame that we aren't willing to do that.
^ Friends of Parks groups and private operators of something like a merry-go-round can go far to relieve taxpayers for paying for these things.
Every significant park in Jacksonville should have a nonprofit Friends-of-the-Park organization and/or an Adopt-a-Park program to supplement City support and the City should be taking the lead to create and support these efforts. In Jax... nothing! (By the way, we should do the same for our public schools.) People will invest personal resources in opportunities that mutually benefit their own interests and the City needs to exploit that tendency.
As to private operators, or fee for service operated by the City, consider the merry-go-round that was in St. Augustine or the one below in Byrant Park in New York City (p.s. this park also is surrounded by outdoor eateries, restaurants and hosts outdoor movies/concerts. A perfect and easy-to-copy model for optimizing green spaces.)
Imagine how much rent residential or office tenants or hotel guests would pay to be in a building contiguous with a park like this.
(https://c8.alamy.com/comp/B55N3T/colorful-carousel-in-bryant-park-in-new-york-city-for-editorial-use-B55N3T.jpg)
(https://www.nycinsiderguide.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/bryant-park-movie-nights.jpg)
(https://bryantpark.org/images/cache/assets/uploads/images/general/Jazzmobile_2022-07-23_Ryan-Muir_lores_402-900x600.jpg)
(https://planning-org-uploaded-media.s3.amazonaws.com/legacy_resources/greatplaces/spaces/2010/img/bryantpark01.jpg)
^If you look past the fact that he probably expensed some meals and other things that he shouldn't have (who amongst us hasn't?), the original Friends of Hemming Park group led by Vince Cavin had a really great vision for the park. They had Community First lined up to build and sponsor a stage, Blacksheep lined up to open a shipping container restaurant, and some great plans to partner with the library, add more green space, and bring in attractions (like a carousel) to the park. Citizenry was just aghast at the idea of investing public money into Hemming though.
Quote from: thelakelander on July 10, 2023, 10:33:21 AM
QuoteThere was a call for offers for a full block parcel near the Jags stadium recently
Which block was this?
Church St & Victoria St.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on July 10, 2023, 12:06:56 PM
Quote from: Jax_Developer on July 10, 2023, 08:18:59 AM
Once rents are reliably higher than $2.00 psf then conversations about smaller or denser projects become actually feasible. Right now they are kind of here and there in historic retrofits.
The way to get rents up is to create demand. The way to create demand is to make Downtown more desirable. The way to make Downtown more desirable is to offer amenities, activities and an environment people want to be engaged with*. DIA doesn't seem to focus on any of this, just making deals with developers with no holistic plan/vision for Downtown. Hence, the start and stop failings we see regularly resulting in little to no progress over decades.
Compare Downtown's ecosystem of 60 or more years ago today. Retail, night spots, restaurants, theaters, robust historic buildings, hotels, density... pretty much destroyed or gone. Night and day comparison. If we did more to incentivize via smart infrastructure, green spaces and aesthetic investments, along with disciplined planning and zoning, Downtown would be the most desirable part of the county and sub $2.00 rents would be hsitory.
DIA, or its replacement, should be empowered and focused more on the above than just making developers happy. The latter will happen if the former takes place and that is the change that is needed. The present approach is a demonstrated failure. We need to stop repeating what clearly doesn't work (JTA are you listening? ;D ).
*This brings up another thought, why is Downtown Vision not integrated with DIA. Another case of left hand and right hand not working the best together?
I'm not saying I know how to fix it, but I think the lack of demand does demonstrate some larger issues at play. I believe the city could invest in more infrastructure DT if there were private projects supporting the public dollars. I don't think the issue is a lack of public dollars for downtown, it is the perception of the return towards those changes that has people concerned. I do think that the pursuit to creating a profitable build environment is the most important goal.. several other objectives would fall in line with private investment in the CC. I think the large hanger items leave room for doubt for outside investors that do have decisions when it comes to what markets to invest in. The Jags future is the most uncertain for an NFL franchise to be fair on a national level.
To the DIA's credit, at least they're already getting ahead of delays for Riverfront Plaza park on the very first day of construction.
Quotehttps://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2023/07/10/long-awaited-construction-on-riverfront-plaza-begins-monday/
"Lori Boyer, CEO of the Downtown Investment Authority, said she expects that the project will be completed in a little more than a year.
"I think that the Public Works estimate on it is around 15 to 18 months," Boyer said. "But that's always subject to change, whether there's weather delays or supply chain delays, you know, any of that kind of stuff. But at the moment, we're looking forward to finally getting it out of the way."
I think this lack of firmness, urgency, and ownership from the DIA is a huge part of why we're coming out of this economic boom with almost nothing to show for it downtown.
^ That's only phase 1.
QuoteThe goal of the construction is to transform Riverfront Plaza into a park with a large green space and public amenities. Crews will eventually build walkways, gardens and a cafe with a playground.
When is the full project supposed to be completed and for how much?
Quote from: thelakelander on July 10, 2023, 09:36:27 PM
^ That's only phase 1.
QuoteThe goal of the construction is to transform Riverfront Plaza into a park with a large green space and public amenities. Crews will eventually build walkways, gardens and a cafe with a playground.
When is the full project supposed to be completed and for how much?
In typical Jacksonville fashion, Phase 2 is tied to a speculative 44-story residential tower, tied to historic levels of weird subsidy, resulting from an RFP that no one else responded to.
DIA expects the redevelopment agreement to be fully pushed through City Council by late 2022 and construction to begin alongside the park this week.
Looking out my office window, the statue of Andrew Jackson must just be blocking the view of the cranes.
Apologies if I'm being too cynical and salty, but as someone who's down here five days a week and does everything possible to support downtown businesses, it's just so depressing to see the Northbank actively move backwards during this last boom. It doesn't even seem like it should be possible with how much relocation we've had to Jacksonville post-pandemic, but we've somehow managed to achieve it. I think back to even like 2019, and things were so much better. Now, Zodiac has closed. Olio has closed. Jacob's is gone. Vagabond has left downtown twice now. Cowford closed down lunch service. Sweet Pete's closed lunch service several days a week. Big Pete's with its glorious microwaved Hungry Howie's pizza is shuttered. Bread & Board provisions and Jumping Jax have reduced their hours. 1904 is closing. My lunch-time stroll across the pedestrian ramp from the Landing to Friendship Park is now a wraparound stroll from a grass field to an abandoned construction site. There are more unhinged vagrants than I've ever seen downtown.
All the gaslighting about "progress and momentum" in the world can't change the day-to-day experience.
We need to blow things up with the existing DIA.
They've had their chance, and - in my opinion - they've failed to meaningfully move the needle on both the riverfront and in the city core.
That's not to say they haven't done some good things with the historic preservation fund, but my eyeballs tell me things are worse now than they were five years ago.
Time for a change, not for unanimous votes for extensions and raises.
Definition of insanity.
To really compare how many failures they have had you have to also look at our growth rate compared to peer cities that are not growing, or growing relatively slowly compared to Jax. I am for scrapping the DIA.
^Just laying it out there across different categories, it isn't pretty.
Northbank Riverfront:
1. Landing Park RFP: Winner chosen exclusively because of proposed $12-$18 million public art; art later dismissed by DIA as unrealistic.
2. Landing Private Development: Only one response to RFP; massive subsidy; no development agreement in sight
3. Ford on Bay RFP #1: Site is RFP'd for a convention center; firms put in millions worth of work; decide CC is too expensive and site isn't right
4. Ford on Bay RFP #2: Spandrel wins, site sits unoccupied for two years, deal falls apart
5. Ford on Bay RFP #3: RFP issued with preference for development that will break ground immediately; winner chosen; still appears years from construction
6. Times-Union Center Park - renders since 2018; work still not started
7. LaVilla Townhouse Project - not riverfront, but quickly acknowledging how botched and unfair the initial RFP was with the selection of Vestcor
Southbank Riverfront:
1. River City Brewing/Related Development - restaurant demolished; Related deal fell apart; no deal for replacement
2. The District/Riversedge - seeking yet another extension
3. Friendship Fountain - closed for four years and counting
Major historical rehab projects:
1. Laura Street Trio - agreement hammered out; no progress; refused to take stance on new development agreement
2. Jones Bros Furniture - agreement hammered out; no construction
3. Ambassador Hotel - agreement hammered out; in limbo
4. Independent Life - agreement hammered out; in limbo
5. Mathers Social - two agreements hammered out; no construction
Major initiatives:
1. Retail/restaurant corridor program - grand plans to reach out to and potentially recruit 30 targeted business for incentivized downtown relocation; none have moved in
2. Downtown two-way street initiative - nothing converted
3. Master planning - dismissively bashes anyone who says they don't have a master plan; presents something that is not a master plan
4. Public Transportation - no firm stance taken on the half-billion investment in U2C or flagrantly obvious need for Skyway connection to Brooklyn
5. Historic demoliton - no firm stance taken against the continued demolition of historic building stock
6. Neighborhood Rebranding - so embarrassing and inauthentic (Soba, Noco) that they literally had to start over
It's not personal, but if you take VyStar, the Jags, and Groundwork Jax out of the picture (these projects were happening with or without the DIA), what CONCRETE has this iteration of the DIA accomplished in the last five years? Not speculative, not ten years down the line, but that the taxpayer can enjoy TODAY.
Sample size is big enough to know it's not working.
We need people with vision who have done this successfully in other cities, aggressively pushed projects across the finish line in spite of interest rates/material costs/supply chain issues, and injected new life into dying urban cores.
We don't need the same old network of myopic locals glacially wasting away economic cycles with no urgency, no assertiveness, and no accountability.
Plenty of external circumstances, political decisions, and developer over-reaches have clearly factored into the above, but there is just a GLARINGLY obvious pattern of failures, delays, botched RFPs, and projects falling apart that just can't be ignored. The buck has to stop with DIA leadership. They're ultimately responsible for the progress of Downtown Jacksonville. And that progress just ain't there. If anything, we've regressed.
^ To add and reiterate, the only reason is seems "projects" even arise is due to generous incentives. It is clear incentives aren't going to work when underlying economic forces are not in play. Until we have an entity that looks at more than just offering carrots to developers and addresses creating real demand for downtown, not some imaginary "if we built they will come" model, no matter what form we use or who is in charge, we will not succeed.
When I look at successful downtowns, they are not spending big bucks on incentives but rather making streetscapes attractive, creating functional and attractive green spaces, building around cultural institutions and events, incorporating public art, insuring small retail businesses can be supported and accommodated, incorporating one-of-a-kind restaurants, etc.
I don't see DIA focused on any of these things. Ultimately, seduced developers are realizing that due to lack of community demand, they can't get returns on their investment, even with over the top incentives, and they back down or out or delay indefinitely in the hopes this City finally gets its act together, which, to date, it never has.
We need to scrap how DIA, DVI, JTA, Planning Department, Public Works, FDOT, NFTPO, etc. work and coordinate and rebuild a whole new model for planning (there is a new idea!) the future of this City.
Personally, I feel like all of these organizations are filled with the same kinds of folks that are on the council. It is the same people split up into small groups, so there are more of them to spread the love. I think it would be great to have all of them take a 10-year vacation and see what happens. I think the outcome would be much better.
Quote from: Ken_FSU on July 09, 2023, 04:37:01 PM
The DIA should be led and staffed by people with a thick (virtual) Rolodex of national and international investors and developers, and a proven track record of revitalizing a major urban area in a comparable city.
From the standpoint of having knowledge and awareness of what the possibilities are and what the realistic trajectory of our city is, I agree with you.
From the standpoint of having people like this so they can in turn attract their former employers etc, I disagree that's needed and don't think that's necessarily realistic.
IF someone moved to Jacksonville after working long enough at a major nationally or internationally renowned investor/developer to have sway/influence/rolodex there and in the broader national marketplace, it is far more likely they would be finding deals - suburban, niche (PVB office space for instance), or urban (maybe) to work on here in NE FL that personally makes them money than it is for them to join staff of a downtown city agency. One can always dream, though.
In Jacksonville we have very well connected local business men and real estate guys (for example, founder of Rockpoint is from here and lives here). We have a very well connected brokerage community (I'd like to be able to say I'm included in that). We have some local developers who are also well connected and going out and finding outside investors to partner with, as well.
The problem isn't that there aren't people in Jax who can't / aren't bringing visibility to the rest of the country (and there is a national spotlight, to a degree, on Jacksonville thanks to the growth story here). The problem is really just one of fundamentals - the right set of characteristics hasn't been created downtown yet.
And thank God we have a couple of local developers now, backed largely by a local LP/debt, to do some downtown projects that are starting to pave the way for that outside money to take a harder look.
An example where we *have* the fundamentals in place for a lot more high end, high density development now is at the beach. The Azure condo project by Related has garnered A LOT of attention. Nobody wants to do a similar condo in town right now because resales of existing condos top out well below construction hard costs (per square foot), but at the beach there WOULD be more Azures happening and more higher density stuff. But the beach citizens have LOUDLY rejected anything of that sort with height limits (plus their rejection of the Tribridge development at the former KMart was a LOUD negative signal as well).
I always contend there WOULD be more infill and stuff going on in Riverside/Avondale, but the damn overlay/RAP gets in the way, from my observation. In downtown, politics and lack of vision have always gotten in the way.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on July 09, 2023, 09:47:42 PM
Most importantly, DIA needs to show the community a clear vision/plan for Downtown that reflects wide community inputs (not just what its staff and consultants think are best), be more disciplined about sticking to such a plan over a long period of time and not fawn over the developer rendering/project of the day. If developers don't comply with the master plan, we need to say "sorry" and move on. In support of this, there needs to be best-in-class downtown zoning regarding street engagement and aesthetics, green spaces, setbacks, height restrictions, architecture, scale, historic preservation, etc., not some random walk with developers.
I agree with some of this and not sure if I agree with all of it. I am not a fan of "the experts" these days, as they constantly prove themselves to be wrong. I'm also not a fan necessarily of "widespread" community "input", because we would never get anywhere, it would be a hodge podge mess, and a lot of input would be negative and anti-growth to begin with. I don't know what the answer is.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on July 09, 2023, 09:47:42 PMWe also need to say that we will incentivize developers by investing in community infrastructure that supports their project rather than "investing" directly into the project. This would not only benefit the developers but the entire community and, hopefully, leverage such investments to support further development in the area (i,e, a multiplier effect) creating some real momentum. The lone exception is incentives for historic structures and such incentives should be based on either multiple contractor bids shared with DIA or a 3rd party audit of the single bid contractor.
Strongly agree with this. I think this actually makes a lot of sense. I feel like IF we can get these things finished in a timely manner, the riverfront parks sort of serve as this. I'm torn on two-way'ing the streets downtown, but since it is the stated plan, please for the love of God just freaking do it now...
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on July 09, 2023, 09:47:42 PMThe DIA board needs to be more diverse, and maybe enlarged, and include people not just tied to development, construction or real estate, but also representative of business owners, residents, nonprofits, environmentalists, historians, accountants, financial analysts, etc. Members should be representative of being a Jax resident for from 5 years to decades. Terms should be staggered so that people are going to be selected by more than one mayor/city council over time, insuring the board isn't reflecting one mayor/city council's "philosophy" over downtown.
Strongly disagree with this. Impractical and keep environmentalists as far away from real estate related activities as much as possible. The Sierra Club, founded in SF, loudly rejected and protested every high density development proposed above the BART line in the middle of San Francisco while I was there. These ideological whackos never make sense and they get in the way of everything. They are largely the reason why we have the development patterns in suburban Jacksonville that we do that we all complain about (large 2,000 home windy road cul de sac communities with one entrance/exit onto main road).
Quote from: Jax_Developer on July 10, 2023, 08:18:59 AM
There was a call for offers for a full block parcel near the Jags stadium recently.. there was a ton of interest at first.. maybe they are UC. I don't know honestly. Whoever the buyer is, it will be speculative.. and that's what is happening around downtown now. Just realistically the return per square foot is not there for projects outside of Brooklyn and the Southbank as of 7/2023. I think the DIA has done all it can, within the confines of market realities.
As much as I am not a fan of infinite REV grants, they are effective in helping get the ball rolling.. They have expanded those grants to small projects. They also do have quite a bit of authority to essentially negotiate city lands within their boundaries. I don't think it is a lack of power as much as it's an inability to make projects pencil out. Vestcor has been the biggest downtown developer, and they have only been able to do it through low-income benefits & incentives.
The items that need to be addressed, which are controversial I know, are: the crime, a plan for the jail, the public river space, and the jags stadium. Any developer is looking at those items more so than a few extra dollars of incentives. Rents just have not kept up with construction costs and that's why these new "asks" are insanely larger than previously requested for projects still 'happening.'
The DIA is doing all they can do.. there needs to be a more legitimate conversation about what is preventing the CC from coming together. It's holding everything else down with it. Once rents are reliably higher than $2.00 psf then conversations about smaller or denser projects become actually feasible. Right now they are kind of here and there in historic retrofits.
Agree with basically all of this, though, there are certainly still flaws with the DIA. For instance, how do you run a [second] RFP on a site with a Right of First Refusal on it from the neighboring hotel who vocally wants convention/exhibition space there (after cancelling the first RFP that was in fact for a convention center)? Was that an oversight from DIA? Was that just because Lenny Curry demanded apartments on all of it and he was helping to ensure Shad Khan would get any new convention space near the Jags? I mean how does that even happen? There've been quite a few other glaring mistakes when awarding projects or incentives.
But, I do agree with basically all of your points. The DIA can only really do what they can do. At the end of the day, they aren't the implementers of public projects, or private projects for that matter. How do we get the city to perform the work it is in charge of? How does Friendship Fountain or the Northbank bulkhead take so many years? That's not DIA's fault and makes their job harder.
Quote from: Steve on July 10, 2023, 01:34:28 PM
Someone has to pay to maintain all those things. Clearly Columbus is willing to pay.
It's a shame that we aren't willing to do that.
Our parks look like absolute horse s**t but we brag about having the largest park system. I honestly don't know if in other cities there is a bit more philanthropy going with the parks, but I know in Ortega that local residents put in the money to make some of those parks nice. I remember once seeing a list of all major cities in America and their spending per acre on public parks and Jax was way dead last.
Quote from: Ken_FSU on July 11, 2023, 12:23:17 PM
We need people with vision who have done this successfully in other cities, aggressively pushed projects across the finish line in spite of interest rates/material costs/supply chain issues, and injected new life into dying urban cores.
We don't need the same old network of myopic locals glacially wasting away economic cycles with no urgency, no assertiveness, and no accountability.
Plenty of external circumstances, political decisions, and developer over-reaches have clearly factored into the above, but there is just a GLARINGLY obvious pattern of failures, delays, botched RFPs, and projects falling apart that just can't be ignored. The buck has to stop with DIA leadership. They're ultimately responsible for the progress of Downtown Jacksonville. And that progress just ain't there. If anything, we've regressed.
That was a lengthy sad list you created, but I agree with your sentiments above.
Daniel Davis and the way our local chamber is run is a total parallel. We all complained about Daniel's bloated huge salary there (was he really worth it)? I'm sure he quoted the salaries of the other Chamber presidents in Atlanta, Nashville, Raleigh, etc as they were all in that league.
HOWEVER, one big difference is that all of their Chamber presidents had HUGE resumes pertinent to a big city chamber president job. In fact, these cities often trade Chamber presidents (I think Austin scooped up Nashville's president as an example). These other cities have chamber presidents who ONLY do chamber work or state level economic development work.
In Jacksonville's case, we were perfectly fine giving that level salary to a young local guy who really had never done anything of this sort. And that's how we operate. We don't really look for the best in my opinion. We are kind of just dumb locals trying to run ourselves as we see fit.
But that also makes these damn Chamber trips and Civic Council trips and other city "sponsored" trips so frustrating. We take so many freaking trips to go out and see what other cities are doing and how they are running themselves, and it's just insane how useless these drinking trips really are.
I found this article while looking up stuff on Daniel Davis during the campaign. It's from 2002.
https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2002/oct/09/thoughts-chambers-leadership-trip/
From Denise Wallace, the then NEFBA president:
"It was my third trip..."
From Bonnie Knight of the Downtown Council (remember, this was from 2002):
"Their downtown. When we arrived, the place was full of pedestrians. There were lots of shops, lots to do. We're on the verge of that and those of us from the Downtown Council really were impressed about what can be done."
From Martha Barrett:
"I've been on all 22 Leadership trips and this was as good as any. It's the opportunity to meet new people, and it's also the opportunity to get things going. There are decision-makers on the trip; if you see something that's applicable to Jacksonville, you can get people together right there and discuss it..."
So by 2002 there had already been 22 Leadership Trips. I mean it is out of this world unreal...
Saw a link to this in my FB feed, and went to the source (DIA) for the link. It is billed as the "DIA Downtown Master Plan, June 2023." I haven't made my way through the 64 pages yet.
https://coj365-my.sharepoint.com/personal/andersone_coj_net/_layouts/15/onedrive.aspx?id=%2Fpersonal%2Fandersone%5Fcoj%5Fnet%2FDocuments%2F20230621%5FMaster%20Plan%20summary%2FDIA%20Master%20Plan%20Executive%20Summary%5FPages%2Epdf&parent=%2Fpersonal%2Fandersone%5Fcoj%5Fnet%2FDocuments%2F20230621%5FMaster%20Plan%20summary&ga=1
Geez that's a loooong URL
^ Charles, need another link. This one is password protected. 8).
Rats! Wonder how I got in earlier? And why would a document on the DIA website be password protected? I saw it first on some FB page, but now I can't find that instance. However, I did download it, but I don't know how to share from my device.
Quote from: Charles Hunter on July 11, 2023, 08:38:02 PM
Rats! Wonder how I got in earlier? And why would a document on the DIA website be password protected? I saw it first on some FB page, but now I can't find that instance. However, I did download it, but I don't know how to share from my device.
Maybe this?
https://issuu.com/dia.coj.net/docs/dia_downtown_master_plan_summary_web_issuu/1 (https://issuu.com/dia.coj.net/docs/dia_downtown_master_plan_summary_web_issuu/1)
I'd like to see the part of the plan where improvement timelines and funding has been identified for the public projects. I flipped through quickly but didn't see anything.
A personal favorite of mine was the "carrot and stick" section, p26-27:
The carrot: incentives.
The stick: mandatory downtown zoning overlay that is much less restrictive than ordinary zoning and may either be complied with or deviated from with permission.
Quite the balance we've struck. I think we've got those developers right where we want them /s
jaxnole - YES, that's it!! Thanks!
I did appreciate the renderings throughout that incorporated some of the existing proposals.
Quote from: jaxoNOLE on July 11, 2023, 09:35:14 PM
Maybe this?
https://issuu.com/dia.coj.net/docs/dia_downtown_master_plan_summary_web_issuu/1 (https://issuu.com/dia.coj.net/docs/dia_downtown_master_plan_summary_web_issuu/1)
Interesting! There's a lot going on here, although it's probably early to say whether it's really going on.
For starters, this graphic is something, I guess:
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/847298939618590760/1128685493261967400/Screenshot_2023-07-12_at_9.03.14_AM.png)
I think it says a lot that the DIA is openly giving up on actually planning anything from a transit standpoint. Just hoping JTA figures whatever out, really.
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/847298939618590760/1128687689600876686/Screenshot_2023-07-12_at_9.57.31_AM.png)
I'm curious about the comparison of this document to other urban master plans, what we've done differently here (because I don't imagine this is of the same nature as others). I find it funny that the opening description of downtown on page 6 can't decide whether to call the subsections neighborhoods or districts. I've figured for a while now that Downtown was the neighborhood and LaVilla, Brooklyn, etc. were districts within it, but they don't seem sure. It also mentions that the boundaries were set in the 1980s and haven't changed since, and I wonder if perhaps that's something we should revisit.
Goal #1 is having downtown as the epicenter for business in the region, but that seems at odds with the permissive view towards office development in further-flung areas like Town Center, the Southside, and even as far as Nocatee (within Duval County).
Interesting that the Southbank is currently the residential core of downtown, with Brooklyn second and then Cathedral Hill third. Certainly a lot of room for filling in the core.
It's a little disappointing, even if understandable, that only about 5 streets are planned to be made two-way, with the remainder to stay for "thru traffic to bridges and I-95". While it does create a new "box" of street grid in City Center, it also walls off LaVilla and Cathedral Hill.
I think this graphic of the approval process is funny:
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/847298939618590760/1128696843195392171/Screenshot_2023-07-12_at_9.10.50_AM.png)
Now to glance at each of the neighborhood renderings:
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/785394406445547520/1128687256736116747/Screenshot_2023-07-12_at_9.58.01_AM.png)
Brooklyn's rendering probably is the closest to showing things really happening, although the two buildings on either side of Park St in the foreground don't seem to exist even on paper. I'm somewhat suspect of the concept of Park as a sharrow, unless they're really going to be okay with slowing vehicles down, not to mention that it's probably not good for Bus
Rapid Transit to be stuck in a sharrow.
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/785394406445547520/1128687269650387024/Screenshot_2023-07-12_at_9.58.33_AM.png)
I see LaVilla has a new logo now. Interesting choice to use the Terminal in it. It's not the worst but it personally feels a bit less polished compared to some of the others. I actually think the render looks quite nice, especially with the park, although I feel like it doesn't really strike me as "this place is directly adjacent to/part of an urban core." The TOD and JRTC elements are going to be an open question for a while, so it's unclear what more to say.
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/785394406445547520/1128687280480067635/Screenshot_2023-07-12_at_9.58.59_AM.png)
Something tells me those lights under the Skyway aren't happening. That aside, this seems fine, I actually don't see why this isn't something we can basically do tomorrow. Even if actually building the bike path to sidewalk-height takes time, you can plant trees and add signs tomorrow, or quickly repaint the lane lines in a week. The scooters already exist!
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/785394406445547520/1128687292744212611/Screenshot_2023-07-12_at_9.59.12_AM.png)
Making use of that parking lot is a great idea, again we should be able to do it tomorrow if we don't already. Personally it strikes me as sad that despite claiming it's so important Bay St have these nightlife options, there's no interest in creating more sidewalk space by taking away the street parking there. I've walked this part of Bay and if anything's happening outside the buildings it's hard to squeeze between them and the trees. Pretty nuts in general that the speed of the vehicles suggests continuing to use Bay as a high-speed thoroughfare while sidelining the people.
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/785394406445547520/1128687306828685413/Screenshot_2023-07-12_at_9.59.25_AM.png)
None of this looks real, honestly. Looks fine, but not real. Here's the equivalent perspective of Market & Monroe in Street View (Jan 2021):
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/847298939618590760/1128692291637346324/Screenshot_2023-07-12_at_10.19.37_AM.png)
Good luck, I guess.
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/785394406445547520/1128687323605901332/Screenshot_2023-07-12_at_9.59.39_AM.png)
This feels... empty, somehow. Less lively than most of the previous renderings. The parks and marina are fine, but obviously it's been nearly a decade now and we're still mostly watching dirt move around.
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/785394406445547520/1128687336658567168/Screenshot_2023-07-12_at_9.59.49_AM.png)
Interesting to finally see the convention center idea in some form. Basically zero detail in it, but more than literally nothing. Personally I think that if Khan wasn't willing to build a tower for the Four Seasons we're not going to get one here, but I've talked about Lori Boyer's idea of how this would all play out before so I guess this supports that. Of course the Hyatt's parcel is
juuuust out of frame so we can't see what happens with that here. The park looks nice but forgive me for doubting that it'll actually come out like that given the hard time we've had with all the other parks.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 12, 2023, 10:42:56 AM
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/785394406445547520/1128687269650387024/Screenshot_2023-07-12_at_9.58.33_AM.png)
I see LaVilla has a new logo now. Interesting choice to use the Terminal in it. It's not the worst but it personally feels a bit less polished compared to some of the others. I actually think the render looks quite nice, especially with the park, although I feel like it doesn't really strike me as "this place is directly adjacent to/part of an urban core." The TOD and JRTC elements are going to be an open question for a while, so it's unclear what more to say.
That's the Ritz. This logo is one that was selected by the LaVilla Heritage Trail and Gateway committee. The committee is comprised of local LaVilla residents, business owners and historians. They hated the original logos but loved this one and that it was designed by a member of the community. Since consensus was finally built, it was decided to move forward with it.
Other than the townhouses and the park, the other buildings in the rendering aren't actual projects. They are likely just the scale of what JTA and the DIA would like to see on those vacant properties.
Great observations.
A couple of mine.
Southbank - the map (p53) still shows "MOSH" there - as well as in the Sports & Entertainment District
Sports & Entertainment District
The Map (p53) shows the Police Building and Jail, while the rendering (p54-55) shows a convention center and other development there.
The Map also shows the Veterans Memorial Wall in its current location. I thought I'd read somewhere that it would be relocated to make way for redevelopment of the stadium parking lots - or was that just a "Lot J" thing?
I agree with marcusnelson's skepticism about the park in the S&ED - especially that curved walkway connecting the various piers.
And, sadly, the plan continues to show the vestigial ramps that used to connect to the Hart Bridge. Get rid of them, and open up more land for development and reconnecting the street grid.
I just realized that in the convention center rendering the jail is still behind the convention center. Which either means that this rendering was lazy and they didn't appropriately account for the physical space of the convention center, or it's much smaller than previously suggested.
Which actually leads me to think: I think we've historically assumed that the police building and the jail would stay together or be replaced at the same time, but that's not actually obligated, is it? Could we just build a new police building, rehab the jail, and use it for another decade or two with provisions to eventually hold an expansion of the convention center?
Anyway, I was under the impression that the Veterans Memorial Wall was staying in place ever since the proposal to put it in the middle of the Hart Ramps died (back when they were proposed as a loop to Bay St). I think even the Jaguars renderings (which, let's be real, the DIA is going to defer to) show it still in its current location. I do wonder if because federal funding was used for the Hart Ramps they have to stay in place, or if it's just a matter of spending more money on further demolition.
Personally I don't see any reason to demolish the existing MOSH building even once the new building is complete. As has been discussed here before, there's no reason it couldn't be renovated into another space, like as a new cultural attraction.
Good eye! I had not seen the jail either. It looks like the Convention Center sits on the Police Building site. That makes even less sense. Just put in next to the Hyatt already, extending to the "Ford on Bay" site if more space is needed (but I don't think it is).
Since the Infrastructure Act (or one of the other recent Acts) includes a specific program to remove outmoded highway structures, I don't think there is any federal problem with removing those ramps.
I agree, the existing MOSH building can and probably should be repurposed. Just noting "the master plan" has 2 MOSHes.
Quote from: Charles Hunter on July 12, 2023, 12:03:31 PM
Good eye! I had not seen the jail either. It looks like the Convention Center sits on the Police Building site. That makes even less sense. Just put in next to the Hyatt already, extending to the "Ford on Bay" site if more space is needed (but I don't think it is).
They had multiple chances to do this, including the original convention center RFP that Jacobs won, the unsolicited bid from Jacobs that they ignored for Spandrel, and the
second unsolicited bid from Jacobs that they ignored for Carter. Now with the interest rates and the obvious disinterest of the DIA and the still-extant selection of Carter I can't imagine Jacobs (or anyone serious, really) still want to bother trying at this point.
QuoteSince the Infrastructure Act (or one of the other recent Acts) includes a specific program to remove outmoded highway structures, I don't think there is any federal problem with removing those ramps.
I could see that applying to the existing ramp, but then there's the new structure they built to get that ramp down to grade, and I wonder if doing that means the whole structure now is protected by the grant.
IMO, from I've viewed, the renderings are simply renderings. Not everything shown in them is a real project.
For some form of comparison to the DIA's Master Plan, the city of Sunnyvale, California, just approved a Specific Plan for a place called Moffett Park. Obviously the Bay Area isn't going to have the same level of demand as Jacksonville, but it seems worth looking at the kind of consideration being made to support new development, especially when we know it's possible to build housing all over the region and that the demand for housing does exist.
One of their city council members breaks down the plan here (https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1679190998130491393.html) (you can see the original Twitter thread here (https://twitter.com/rf_mehlinger/status/1679190998130491393?s=20)). And the plan itself is available on their website here (https://www.moffettparksp.com).
Wow... thanks for posting. I spent eight years flying P-3 Orion aircraft from Moffett Field and I know that area well. Onizuka AFB was next door featuring the "Blue Cube " NSA building. Lockheed also had facilities there. Pretty sure NASA still flies the U-2 from the airfield. Moffett was home to the USS Akron... a rigid airship similar to the Hindenburg and Graf Zeppelin... the difference being ours were filled with non explosive helium instead of hydrogen... the hangar was absolutely gigantic!!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Akron
I had the privilege to tour the wind tunnels at Moffett.. largest in the world and just hard to fathom til this day. So big it creates a large air vacuum above Moffett, and a few commercial liners almost got taken out before they realized. Such a cool site.
Potentially some big changes coming for incentive programs...
https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2023/jul/14/dia-considering-new-revised-incentives-to-complement-deegans-small-business-push/
Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 15, 2023, 12:11:22 AM
Potentially some big changes coming for incentive programs...
https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2023/jul/14/dia-considering-new-revised-incentives-to-complement-deegans-small-business-push/
At the max of $250,000, DIA could support 40 small businesses that would likely do more to revitalize Downtown than one $10 million hotel or apartment building. And, all your eggs are not in one basket, if a project fails.
Deegan was right to call this out... big businesses getting big breaks vs. not-so-much for smaller ones. Refreshing.
Enjoyed reading your thoughts. Some of my own just to add to yours...
Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 12, 2023, 10:42:56 AM
Goal #1 is having downtown as the epicenter for business in the region, but that seems at odds with the permissive view towards office development in further-flung areas like Town Center, the Southside, and even as far as Nocatee (within Duval County).
We should be able to have both. Right now suburbs in general are outperforming urban cores all around the country, but that's not why we should be able to have both. We should be able to have both because they are complementary and every other successful city has both a thriving downtown and thriving/large suburban business districts.
For various reasons often brought up here on MJ, Jacksonville's office market has really just been in the pits all over the place since the 1990s. We had gleaming office headquarters buildings constructed downtown AND large high quality office buildings constructed in the suburbs in the late 80s/1990s. Since the late 90s it's been an impossible challenge to get either. Both Austin, TX and Nashville, TN have office high rises underway in both the urban core and various suburban office/high density clusters. (to name a couple of examples)
We just have a dismal office market, and it's actually a mystery why there is no demand even with all of the people moving here.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 12, 2023, 10:42:56 AM
It's a little disappointing, even if understandable, that only about 5 streets are planned to be made two-way, with the remainder to stay for "thru traffic to bridges and I-95". While it does create a new "box" of street grid in City Center, it also walls off LaVilla and Cathedral Hill.
Interesting thought!
Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 12, 2023, 10:42:56 AM(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/785394406445547520/1128687256736116747/Screenshot_2023-07-12_at_9.58.01_AM.png)
Brooklyn's rendering probably is the closest to showing things really happening, although the two buildings on either side of Park St in the foreground don't seem to exist even on paper. I'm somewhat suspect of the concept of Park as a sharrow, unless they're really going to be okay with slowing vehicles down, not to mention that it's probably not good for Bus Rapid Transit to be stuck in a sharrow.
Is Park St supposed to have a BRT route? I agree, that doesn't make sense according to the Emerald Trail/sharrow plans shown in the rendering. Riverside Ave just one block over is not a bad street for heavier rapid transit use.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 12, 2023, 10:42:56 AM
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/785394406445547520/1128687323605901332/Screenshot_2023-07-12_at_9.59.39_AM.png)
This feels... empty, somehow. Less lively than most of the previous renderings. The parks and marina are fine, but obviously it's been nearly a decade now and we're still mostly watching dirt move around.
Master-planned urban infill developments that are entirely new construction often do feel less lively and more contrived than their older yet lower density counterparts. There are parts of Manhattan, San Francisco, Chicago etc that are filled with newer towers yet
feel less lively than other parts. This is by design...
Still, there is progress being made on Rivers Edge and we will see Toll and maybe another group working on their sites within it soon enough. That project is happening, for real for real.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 12, 2023, 10:42:56 AM
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/785394406445547520/1128687336658567168/Screenshot_2023-07-12_at_9.59.49_AM.png)
Interesting to finally see the convention center idea in some form. Basically zero detail in it, but more than literally nothing. Personally I think that if Khan wasn't willing to build a tower for the Four Seasons we're not going to get one here, but I've talked about Lori Boyer's idea of how this would all play out before so I guess this supports that. Of course the Hyatt's parcel is juuuust out of frame so we can't see what happens with that here. The park looks nice but forgive me for doubting that it'll actually come out like that given the hard time we've had with all the other parks.
Convention Center is now being pushed for the jail site.
Regarding high rise - it WILL happen, just a matter of when. Once Four Seasons starts selling units and some publicity goes with that, then there will be some market momentum and developers from around the state will take note. Captain Zissou can speak to what they want for those condos, but the numbers I've heard (on a per square foot) would easily get a high rise deal done with enough units (more than the 24/25 that Four Seasons is doing).
Quote from: simms3 on July 17, 2023, 04:29:48 PM
Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 12, 2023, 10:42:56 AM
Goal #1 is having downtown as the epicenter for business in the region, but that seems at odds with the permissive view towards office development in further-flung areas like Town Center, the Southside, and even as far as Nocatee (within Duval County).
We should be able to have both. Right now suburbs in general are outperforming urban cores all around the country, but that's not why we should be able to have both. We should be able to have both because they are complementary and every other successful city has both a thriving downtown and thriving/large suburban business districts.
For various reasons often brought up here on MJ, Jacksonville's office market has really just been in the pits all over the place since the 1990s. We had gleaming office headquarters buildings constructed downtown AND large high quality office buildings constructed in the suburbs in the late 80s/1990s. Since the late 90s it's been an impossible challenge to get either. Both Austin, TX and Nashville, TN have office high rises underway in both the urban core and various suburban office/high density clusters. (to name a couple of examples)
We just have a dismal office market, and it's actually a mystery why there is no demand even with all of the people moving here.
I mean there are still a number of office buildings being constructed in the suburbs. Town Center has been an epicenter of office development lately, including the buildings D&B and Sofi are now in. Nocatee has seen new construction, plus the new PGA Tour building in Ponte Vedra. Perhaps that pace is lower than one might hope for but it's still extant.
Quote from: simms3 on July 17, 2023, 04:29:48 PM
Is Park St supposed to have a BRT route? I agree, that doesn't make sense according to the Emerald Trail/sharrow plans shown in the rendering. Riverside Ave just one block over is not a bad street for heavier rapid transit use.
Yes, the First Coast Flyer Orange Line (as well as the Route 31 local bus) uses Park Street from the JRTC to FSCJ Kent Campus.
Quote from: simms3 on July 17, 2023, 04:29:48 PM
Regarding high rise - it WILL happen, just a matter of when. Once Four Seasons starts selling units and some publicity goes with that, then there will be some market momentum and developers from around the state will take note. Captain Zissou can speak to what they want for those condos, but the numbers I've heard (on a per square foot) would easily get a high rise deal done with enough units (more than the 24/25 that Four Seasons is doing).
Here's to hoping. There's plenty of land to do that with.
The mystery for downtown's office market struggling since the 1990s is consolidation in the banking and insurance industries. In the 1980s, our skyline was larger than our size. However, we lost all those companies that built all those towers for their corporate headquarters. No more Barnett, Florida National, Charter, Gulf Life, Independent Life, American Heritage, etc. Our loss has been Uptown Charlotte's gain. We still have some backfilling to do.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 17, 2023, 05:19:06 PM
Quote from: simms3 on July 17, 2023, 04:29:48 PM
Regarding high rise - it WILL happen, just a matter of when. Once Four Seasons starts selling units and some publicity goes with that, then there will be some market momentum and developers from around the state will take note. Captain Zissou can speak to what they want for those condos, but the numbers I've heard (on a per square foot) would easily get a high rise deal done with enough units (more than the 24/25 that Four Seasons is doing).
Here's to hoping. There's plenty of land to do that with.
I think the question for the Four Seasons condos will also be who is buying them. If it is mostly friends of Shad (e.g. Jags and AEW officials and players), I don't think that will make for much market "momentum." That is a stacked deck.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on July 18, 2023, 12:42:59 AM
Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 17, 2023, 05:19:06 PM
Quote from: simms3 on July 17, 2023, 04:29:48 PM
Regarding high rise - it WILL happen, just a matter of when. Once Four Seasons starts selling units and some publicity goes with that, then there will be some market momentum and developers from around the state will take note. Captain Zissou can speak to what they want for those condos, but the numbers I've heard (on a per square foot) would easily get a high rise deal done with enough units (more than the 24/25 that Four Seasons is doing).
Here's to hoping. There's plenty of land to do that with.
I think the question for the Four Seasons condos will also be who is buying them. If it is mostly friends of Shad (e.g. Jags and AEW officials and players), I don't think that will make for much market "momentum." That is a stacked deck.
Agreed. I don't think it will raise the price floor at all. You have the Berkman right down the road too contributing to the area pricing as well. If I remember correctly, one of the condos is reportedly selling for $15/$16M.. that will legitimately not happen again for another 20-30 years or more. That is on par with the highest selling SFH's, on the ocean, in PV.
If anything what this will do is price cap any future condo products.... I'm sure the 2/3 bedroom units will be extravagant, and hard to one-up for a future developer. Either-way, it's not like much of riverfront is developable. This is a blue chip site for DT.
Man is Laura Street every bleak lately.
Walked from JWJ Park to the old Landing site this morning.
You walk from a fenced-off James Weldon Johnson Park.
Past a boarded up Snyder Memorial.
Beside a gross old empty billboard and gutted/boarded up Chamblins apartment building.
Past a boarded up Jacobs Jewelers.
Beside the Laura Street Trio that looks like it was hit by a bomb.
Down to Lenny's lawn, where construction is beginning.
Had a crazy gentleman at the corner of Duval and Laura shout in my face that I was going to burn in hell.
Crazy gentleman in front of Jimmy Johns barking at clouds.
Woman sleeping on the street in front of Snyder with her hand inside of a Honey Smacks box.
Literally almost no non-homeless person out and about on the sidewalks.
Five years ago, things felt so much different. Barnett was under construction. Friends of Hemming Park were planning a $100k stage and Black Sheep container restaurant. Snyder was being RFP'd. Aundra Wallace and Southeast had signed a deal for the Trio. Hyatt Place was planning a hotel across from an active Jacksonville Landing. There was talk of a Hotel Indigo opening with a rooftop bar. And there was just so much more life on the streets.
Yikes. I mean you bring up a lot of fair points.
Of the projects above the only one that I was okay that got cancelled was Indigo, which was dumped because VyStar bought the building as part of their headquarters and in my eyes has done a good job with it.
The Lynchpin for the whole street is the Laura Trio, and every time I hear news about this one I feel less confident this happens.
Quote from: Steve on July 18, 2023, 01:16:08 PM
Yikes. I mean you bring up a lot of fair points.
Of the projects above the only one that I was okay that got cancelled was Indigo, which was dumped because VyStar bought the building as part of their headquarters and in my eyes has done a good job with it.
The Lynchpin for the whole street is the Laura Trio, and every time I hear news about this one I feel less confident this happens.
To me, Laura Street is probably the most important street in the entire northbank core when it comes to redevelopment. And there's just so much obvious, low-hanging fruit. Even beyond the Trio, you're telling me that, in the last ten years, the DIA couldn't find an interested buyer to reactivate Snyder Memorial? In ten years, we couldn't find a way to open up the Main Street Library's retail bays to the sidewalk? As Wells Fargo and Bank of America make plans to re-do their lobbies, we can't actively engage them in discussions about opening their retail to the sidewalks? Feels like a vibrant Laura Street would create a lot of positive spillover onto adjacent streets, but it just doesn't seem like a central focus at all.
^ DIA has no coordinated, viable and detailed plan or vision so Downtown is rudderless. All the posts on the Jaxson about Bay Street, Laura Street, LaVilla, riverfront parks, failed projects, boondoggle AV's .... how much more does it take to see how out of sorts Downtown is.
Like we posted on the DIA's Future thread, we need to wipe the slate clean and start over with how Downtown is managed (oops, should be "begin to be managed" as it isn't really being done now).
A kindergartner could do better than the present. Totally frustrating how incompetent leadership is here.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 17, 2023, 05:19:06 PM
Quote from: simms3 on July 17, 2023, 04:29:48 PM
Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 12, 2023, 10:42:56 AM
Goal #1 is having downtown as the epicenter for business in the region, but that seems at odds with the permissive view towards office development in further-flung areas like Town Center, the Southside, and even as far as Nocatee (within Duval County).
We should be able to have both. Right now suburbs in general are outperforming urban cores all around the country, but that's not why we should be able to have both. We should be able to have both because they are complementary and every other successful city has both a thriving downtown and thriving/large suburban business districts.
For various reasons often brought up here on MJ, Jacksonville's office market has really just been in the pits all over the place since the 1990s. We had gleaming office headquarters buildings constructed downtown AND large high quality office buildings constructed in the suburbs in the late 80s/1990s. Since the late 90s it's been an impossible challenge to get either. Both Austin, TX and Nashville, TN have office high rises underway in both the urban core and various suburban office/high density clusters. (to name a couple of examples)
We just have a dismal office market, and it's actually a mystery why there is no demand even with all of the people moving here.
I mean there are still a number of office buildings being constructed in the suburbs. Town Center has been an epicenter of office development lately, including the buildings D&B and Sofi are now in. Nocatee has seen new construction, plus the new PGA Tour building in Ponte Vedra. Perhaps that pace is lower than one might hope for but it's still extant.
Mmmm, I would just have to disagree. Town Center 1/2 are actually not even really that large for suburban office buildings and they are old now, relatively speaking, each having traded hands multiple times since being built (and each with various tenant turnover). Nocatee is supposed to be 5 buildings and so far they've only been able to build/lease 1. PGA's buildings are owner-occupied, and grandiose as far as architecture, but not necessarily large in terms of square footage.
Quote from: thelakelander on July 17, 2023, 05:31:02 PM
The mystery for downtown's office market struggling since the 1990s is consolidation in the banking and insurance industries. In the 1980s, our skyline was larger than our size. However, we lost all those companies that built all those towers for their corporate headquarters. No more Barnett, Florida National, Charter, Gulf Life, Independent Life, American Heritage, etc. Our loss has been Uptown Charlotte's gain. We still have some backfilling to do.
Maybe in the 1990s we were a larger office market relative to our population/size (I just don't know), and that being driven by those industries/office users. But now we are quite a small office market relative to our population/size, and for whatever reason we aren't drawing large office users to Jacksonville as much as some of our peer cities are, as evidenced by total lack of new construction here and plethora of recent deliveries and pipeline in other cities (and this despite drawing tons of new people to the area...I guess they are all either WFH or working service oriented industries).
Sad/dismayed that despite all of the hullabaloo surrounding both D&B and Paysafe, combined they aren't even occupying half of Town Center 2 at the moment, which in the grand scheme of things is not a lot of office space. I get jealous of HQ relocations to other sunbelt cities such as Raleigh, Charlotte, Nashville, Tampa, Austin, Atlanta, etc that result in gleaming new skyscrapers, whether downtown or in the burbs.
It is what it is though. I agree and echo the general sentiment that I wish incentive money were tied to relocating downtown and not the burbs, as I'd rather see downtown benefit than the Town Center area, regardless of the size of the relocation.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on July 18, 2023, 12:42:59 AM
Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 17, 2023, 05:19:06 PM
Quote from: simms3 on July 17, 2023, 04:29:48 PM
Regarding high rise - it WILL happen, just a matter of when. Once Four Seasons starts selling units and some publicity goes with that, then there will be some market momentum and developers from around the state will take note. Captain Zissou can speak to what they want for those condos, but the numbers I've heard (on a per square foot) would easily get a high rise deal done with enough units (more than the 24/25 that Four Seasons is doing).
Here's to hoping. There's plenty of land to do that with.
I think the question for the Four Seasons condos will also be who is buying them. If it is mostly friends of Shad (e.g. Jags and AEW officials and players), I don't think that will make for much market "momentum." That is a stacked deck.
That is a good question. I certainly know of a couple people considering buying a unit there that would be considered "insiders" and not people actually wanting to live there. But at the end of the day, I don't see that many people looking to essentially throw away millions of dollars (or even hundreds of thousands of dollars in a multi-person purchase) on a glam item such as this, despite all the talk about it. There are for instance some Ortega people that now live in Peninsula, where the nicer units are hovering around +/-$1M but on a per square foot are quite cheap ($400-500).
I know that these people
could in all likelihood afford double the price but
would they pay that? That is the big question for our market. Plus, are there new people moving to town who are used to living in condos and prefer the same quality they maybe came from in other cities? We shall see...
Maybe the issues at Peninsula will result in some relocations from there to Four Seasons...
Regardless, I really need the Four Seasons to do well. I need Terraces at San Marco to be selling faster than they are. I need things to be going well for my condo site! HAHA Fingers crossed.
Quote from: Ken_FSU on July 18, 2023, 11:49:47 AM
Man is Laura Street every bleak lately.
Walked from JWJ Park to the old Landing site this morning.
You walk from a fenced-off James Weldon Johnson Park.
Past a boarded up Snyder Memorial.
Beside a gross old empty billboard and gutted/boarded up Chamblins apartment building.
Past a boarded up Jacobs Jewelers.
Beside the Laura Street Trio that looks like it was hit by a bomb.
Down to Lenny's lawn, where construction is beginning.
Had a crazy gentleman at the corner of Duval and Laura shout in my face that I was going to burn in hell.
Crazy gentleman in front of Jimmy Johns barking at clouds.
Woman sleeping on the street in front of Snyder with her hand inside of a Honey Smacks box.
Literally almost no non-homeless person out and about on the sidewalks.
Five years ago, things felt so much different. Barnett was under construction. Friends of Hemming Park were planning a $100k stage and Black Sheep container restaurant. Snyder was being RFP'd. Aundra Wallace and Southeast had signed a deal for the Trio. Hyatt Place was planning a hotel across from an active Jacksonville Landing. There was talk of a Hotel Indigo opening with a rooftop bar. And there was just so much more life on the streets.
Sad state of affairs. I am also so confused by Snyder Memorial. Like what the hell are we trying to do with it?
Also, I took part in the DVI/Build Up Downtown southbank cleanup this weekend, and walked around Friendship Fountain...literally WHAT THE LITERAL F?!? I kind of assumed behind the fencing they were actually doing work all this time and it was just taking so long in typical Jax fashion, but they are not doing anything. Doesn't look like it's been worked on in FOREVER.
I'm blown away by how this could happen. Come to think of it, I assume the machinery, cranes, barges etc on the Northbank Riverwalk are generally working, slowly, but every time I'm walking around to get some air from my office, there is no movement, no workers, and rusting machinery just hanging aroun.
I've also heard that the city made some sort of mistakes on some of the roadway bids (2-ways and Park St), and they have to go back out to bid. What in the freaking hell is going on here...we literally suck at doing anything.
Not sure if blame rests squarely on DIA or City Hall or both...it's impressively bad though.
Quote from: simms3 on July 18, 2023, 07:25:40 PM
Quote from: thelakelander on July 17, 2023, 05:31:02 PM
The mystery for downtown's office market struggling since the 1990s is consolidation in the banking and insurance industries. In the 1980s, our skyline was larger than our size. However, we lost all those companies that built all those towers for their corporate headquarters. No more Barnett, Florida National, Charter, Gulf Life, Independent Life, American Heritage, etc. Our loss has been Uptown Charlotte's gain. We still have some backfilling to do.
Maybe in the 1990s we were a larger office market relative to our population/size (I just don't know), and that being driven by those industries/office users. But now we are quite a small office market relative to our population/size, and for whatever reason we aren't drawing large office users to Jacksonville as much as some of our peer cities are, as evidenced by total lack of new construction here and plethora of recent deliveries and pipeline in other cities (and this despite drawing tons of new people to the area...I guess they are all either WFH or working service oriented industries).
Sad/dismayed that despite all of the hullabaloo surrounding both D&B and Paysafe, combined they aren't even occupying half of Town Center 2 at the moment, which in the grand scheme of things is not a lot of office space. I get jealous of HQ relocations to other sunbelt cities such as Raleigh, Charlotte, Nashville, Tampa, Austin, Atlanta, etc that result in gleaming new skyscrapers, whether downtown or in the burbs.
Our peers these days are Memphis, Norfolk, Birmingham and Louisville, etc. moreso than Charlotte, Nashville, Tampa, Austin, etc. How do we stack up with those MSA's office markets?
Planning Department head position is apparently in play with a possible no change/change in the offing.
This position is critical to all parts of the City. My beef with current leadership is their white washing requests for rezonings, deviations, etc. by developers even when such approvals violated the ordinance standards the department was supposed to follow. This has resulted in developments moving forward that were not at all in the interests of the greater community and often over very loud protests from many corners who were, essentially, ignored.
Keeping the current head will not be a positive sign to me of Deegan's willingness to stand up to the "establishment." I hope she agrees.
https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2023/jul/19/city-advertising-for-planning-and-development-director-post/
Quote from: simms3 on July 18, 2023, 07:34:52 PM
Quote from: Ken_FSU on July 18, 2023, 11:49:47 AM
Man is Laura Street every bleak lately.
Walked from JWJ Park to the old Landing site this morning.
You walk from a fenced-off James Weldon Johnson Park.
Past a boarded up Snyder Memorial.
Beside a gross old empty billboard and gutted/boarded up Chamblins apartment building.
Past a boarded up Jacobs Jewelers.
Beside the Laura Street Trio that looks like it was hit by a bomb.
Down to Lenny's lawn, where construction is beginning.
Had a crazy gentleman at the corner of Duval and Laura shout in my face that I was going to burn in hell.
Crazy gentleman in front of Jimmy Johns barking at clouds.
Woman sleeping on the street in front of Snyder with her hand inside of a Honey Smacks box.
Literally almost no non-homeless person out and about on the sidewalks.
Five years ago, things felt so much different. Barnett was under construction. Friends of Hemming Park were planning a $100k stage and Black Sheep container restaurant. Snyder was being RFP'd. Aundra Wallace and Southeast had signed a deal for the Trio. Hyatt Place was planning a hotel across from an active Jacksonville Landing. There was talk of a Hotel Indigo opening with a rooftop bar. And there was just so much more life on the streets.
Sad state of affairs. I am also so confused by Snyder Memorial. Like what the hell are we trying to do with it?
Also, I took part in the DVI/Build Up Downtown southbank cleanup this weekend, and walked around Friendship Fountain...literally WHAT THE LITERAL F?!? I kind of assumed behind the fencing they were actually doing work all this time and it was just taking so long in typical Jax fashion, but they are not doing anything. Doesn't look like it's been worked on in FOREVER.
I'm blown away by how this could happen. Come to think of it, I assume the machinery, cranes, barges etc on the Northbank Riverwalk are generally working, slowly, but every time I'm walking around to get some air from my office, there is no movement, no workers, and rusting machinery just hanging aroun.
I've also heard that the city made some sort of mistakes on some of the roadway bids (2-ways and Park St), and they have to go back out to bid. What in the freaking hell is going on here...we literally suck at doing anything.
Not sure if blame rests squarely on DIA or City Hall or both...it's impressively bad though.
It probably is both, but to me, City Hall is dealing with an 800 square mile metro, and the DIA's sole job is to aggressively push downtown forward. They should be steering the ship and pushing hard to expedite development of key properties, rather than passing the buck when things remain unaddressed for years. Amongst the lowest hanging fruit in all of the northbank core is the redevelopment of Snyder Memorial into bar, restaurant, or music venue. There's a blueprint for success for this type of redevelopment all over the world. It was last formally RFP'd SEVEN YEARS ago. Over a year ago, the DIA said they were considering another RFP and that they had a running list of interested parties (that they apparently refused to share, https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2022/jun/27/dia-may-put-historic-snyder-memorial-building-on-the-market/), but to the best of my knowledge, nothing has materialized yet. How many of those interested parties moved or lost financing opportunities while the DIA naval gazed and took no action. Meanwhile, the property remains off the market, costing the city millions over the last decade in upkeep and security.
Where is the urgency?
And, to your point, I feel like I'm a broken record, but someone needs to be fired for what's happened with Friendship Park. Maybe multiple people. Back in 2019, Friendship Park was a beautiful amenity for downtown Jacksonville. The fountain itself needed mechanical work, but as a pedestrian park and plaza, it was wildly popular. People went there on their lunch breaks. Families hung out in the park when visiting MOSH. Those using the Riverwalk would stop to pose for pictures in front of the skyline. It was lovely. Then, these clowns decide that the ENTIRE PARK needs to be boarded up prematurely so they can fix the fountain. We're now in our FOURTH YEAR that residents can't access the park, years have gone by with no visible work being done, and nobody in charge of downtown seems to give a shit or be willing to take the blame. No accountability.
The fountain itself has been fixed for SIXTEEN MONTHS:
https://www.news4jax.com/features/2022/03/25/vegas-or-jacksonville-friendship-fountain-shows-off-new-bells-and-whistles/
SIXTEEN FUCKING MONTHS.
And, to your point, anyone who's walked by the site knows that the "just waiting for audio equipment that's hit supply chain issues" excuse is just total crap.
2021 re-opening became a 2022 re-opening became a Memorial Day 2023 reopening became a "mid-July" reopening.
https://www.firstcoastnews.com/article/news/local/friendship-fountain-renovation-hits-snag-opening-pushed-back-july/77-3202ffa3-e7c7-4e6e-801a-f1fddd112064
How's that looking? What are we blaming it on this time? Who's taking the blame?
And the kicker is, to Marcus's point earlier this week, there's still no funding to re-do the actual park (didn't we have $100 million in the CIP specifically set aside for projects like this?), so they haven't even started the actual work. Just the fountain repairs. And we're going to have to close the whole damn thing again when we decide to get around to the park.
It's absurd, and so disgustingly disrespectful to downtown residents, businesses, taxpayers, visitors, etc.
Life is short, and this carelessness and poor execution is literally robbing people of years of enjoyment.
And NO ONE is willing to raise their hand and take the blame.
Just repeat the same gaslighty bullshit about COVID, and supply chain, and weather impact.
Heads should roll for this one.
Everyone needs to go. Clean slate.
You're hired to do a job, you fail, you don't get to keep the job.
It's how the real world works.
Love them or hate them, but compare how the DIA and City handles a project vs. how the Jags do. Daily's Place and the new Practice Facility went from concept to opening to the public in less combined time than it takes the city to fix a fountain.
Great job guys. Raises for everyone.
P.S. What's really frustrating and sad to me, which is probably why I come across so cranky, is that, as a Dad who loves Downtown Jax, I'd love to be able to share that with my daughter. We have so much fun exploring Nashville, Savannah, St. Augustine, MidTown Atlanta, and other urban areas together. She's 9 now. When she was born, I thought, "Downtown is going to be so much fun for us by the time she's 3." And then, "Downtown is going to be so much for us by the time she's 6." And then, "Downtown is going to be so much fun for us by the she's 9." Half of her childhood has passed, and there's still park downtown I even feel safe taking her to. These are the real world consequences of the lack of urgency and progress. On the other end of the spectrum, you have retired folks living out their golden years being robbed of years of vibrancy. It's just sad.
Quote from: Ken_FSU on July 20, 2023, 10:37:54 AM
Quote from: simms3 on July 18, 2023, 07:34:52 PM
Quote from: Ken_FSU on July 18, 2023, 11:49:47 AM
Man is Laura Street every bleak lately.
Walked from JWJ Park to the old Landing site this morning.
You walk from a fenced-off James Weldon Johnson Park.
Past a boarded up Snyder Memorial.
Beside a gross old empty billboard and gutted/boarded up Chamblins apartment building.
Past a boarded up Jacobs Jewelers.
Beside the Laura Street Trio that looks like it was hit by a bomb.
Down to Lenny's lawn, where construction is beginning.
Had a crazy gentleman at the corner of Duval and Laura shout in my face that I was going to burn in hell.
Crazy gentleman in front of Jimmy Johns barking at clouds.
Woman sleeping on the street in front of Snyder with her hand inside of a Honey Smacks box.
Literally almost no non-homeless person out and about on the sidewalks.
Five years ago, things felt so much different. Barnett was under construction. Friends of Hemming Park were planning a $100k stage and Black Sheep container restaurant. Snyder was being RFP'd. Aundra Wallace and Southeast had signed a deal for the Trio. Hyatt Place was planning a hotel across from an active Jacksonville Landing. There was talk of a Hotel Indigo opening with a rooftop bar. And there was just so much more life on the streets.
Sad state of affairs. I am also so confused by Snyder Memorial. Like what the hell are we trying to do with it?
Also, I took part in the DVI/Build Up Downtown southbank cleanup this weekend, and walked around Friendship Fountain...literally WHAT THE LITERAL F?!? I kind of assumed behind the fencing they were actually doing work all this time and it was just taking so long in typical Jax fashion, but they are not doing anything. Doesn't look like it's been worked on in FOREVER.
I'm blown away by how this could happen. Come to think of it, I assume the machinery, cranes, barges etc on the Northbank Riverwalk are generally working, slowly, but every time I'm walking around to get some air from my office, there is no movement, no workers, and rusting machinery just hanging aroun.
I've also heard that the city made some sort of mistakes on some of the roadway bids (2-ways and Park St), and they have to go back out to bid. What in the freaking hell is going on here...we literally suck at doing anything.
Not sure if blame rests squarely on DIA or City Hall or both...it's impressively bad though.
It probably is both, but to me, City Hall is dealing with an 800 square mile metro, and the DIA's sole job is to aggressively push downtown forward. They should be steering the ship and pushing hard to expedite development of key properties, rather than passing the buck when things remain unaddressed for years. Amongst the lowest hanging fruit in all of the northbank core is the redevelopment of Snyder Memorial into bar, restaurant, or music venue. There's a blueprint for success for this type of redevelopment all over the world. It was last formally RFP'd SEVEN YEARS ago. Over a year ago, the DIA said they were considering another RFP and that they had a running list of interested parties (that they apparently refused to share, https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2022/jun/27/dia-may-put-historic-snyder-memorial-building-on-the-market/), but to the best of my knowledge, nothing has materialized yet. How many of those interested parties moved or lost financing opportunities while the DIA naval gazed and took no action. Meanwhile, the property remains off the market, costing the city millions over the last decade in upkeep and security.
Where is the urgency?
And, to your point, I feel like I'm a broken record, but someone needs to be fired for what's happened with Friendship Park. Maybe multiple people. Back in 2019, Friendship Park was a beautiful amenity for downtown Jacksonville. The fountain itself needed mechanical work, but as a pedestrian park and plaza, it was wildly popular. People went there on their lunch breaks. Families hung out in the park when visiting MOSH. Those using the Riverwalk would stop to pose for pictures in front of the skyline. It was lovely. Then, these clowns decide that the ENTIRE PARK needs to be boarded up prematurely so they can fix the fountain. We're now in our FOURTH YEAR that residents can't access the park, years have gone by with no visible work being done, and nobody in charge of downtown seems to give a shit or be willing to take the blame. No accountability.
The fountain itself has been fixed for SIXTEEN MONTHS:
https://www.news4jax.com/features/2022/03/25/vegas-or-jacksonville-friendship-fountain-shows-off-new-bells-and-whistles/
SIXTEEN FUCKING MONTHS.
And, to your point, anyone who's walked by the site knows that the "just waiting for audio equipment that's hit supply chain issues" excuse is just total crap.
2021 re-opening became a 2022 re-opening became a Memorial Day 2023 reopening became a "mid-July" reopening.
https://www.firstcoastnews.com/article/news/local/friendship-fountain-renovation-hits-snag-opening-pushed-back-july/77-3202ffa3-e7c7-4e6e-801a-f1fddd112064
How's that looking? What are we blaming it on this time? Who's taking the blame?
And the kicker is, to Marcus's point earlier this week, there's still no funding to re-do the actual park (didn't we have $100 million in the CIP specifically set aside for projects like this?), so they haven't even started the actual work. Just the fountain repairs. And we're going to have to close the whole damn thing again when we decide to get around to the park.
It's absurd, and so disgustingly disrespectful to downtown residents, businesses, taxpayers, visitors, etc.
Life is short, and this carelessness and poor execution is literally robbing people of years of enjoyment.
And NO ONE is willing to raise their hand and take the blame.
Just repeat the same gaslighty bullshit about COVID, and supply chain, and weather impact.
Heads should roll for this one.
Everyone needs to go. Clean slate.
You're hired to do a job, you fail, you don't get to keep the job.
It's how the real world works.
Love them or hate them, but compare how the DIA and City handles a project vs. how the Jags do. Daily's Place and the new Practice Facility went from concept to opening to the public in less combined time than it takes the city to fix a fountain.
Great job guys. Raises for everyone.
How about "busting some asses," in fact many asses and promulgate and make happen "firings for everyone."
Quote from: Ken_FSU on July 20, 2023, 11:31:45 AM
P.S. What's really frustrating and sad to me, which is probably why I come across so cranky, is that, as a Dad who loves Downtown Jax, I'd love to be able to share that with my daughter. We have so much fun exploring Nashville, Savannah, St. Augustine, MidTown Atlanta, and other urban areas together. She's 9 now. When she was born, I thought, "Downtown is going to be so much fun for us by the time she's 3." And then, "Downtown is going to be so much for us by the time she's 6." And then, "Downtown is going to be so much fun for us by the she's 9." Half of her childhood has passed, and there's still park downtown I even feel safe taking her to. These are the real world consequences of the lack of urgency and progress. On the other end of the spectrum, you have retired folks living out their golden years being robbed of years of vibrancy. It's just sad.
^^^I actually share your *level* of frustration, but after having moved back here and living here now for almost 4 years now, I've learned that I come across as sour and uppity when I complain about our city or so much as draw any comparisons to elsewhere. I've learned to "appreciate" Jax for its ups and downs, but deep down I really think this place is about as frustrating a place as it gets.
The local "mentality" as well is really what contributes, I think, to a lot of this. Local people by and large simply do not care about the kinds of improvements and vision you and I might share for the place. They literally like Jax the way it is.
RAP enthusiasts literally think Avondale is equivalent to Savannah and so much Koolaid has been drunk that we'll never get truly good infill in Riverside/Avondale where it literally makes about the most sense.
The whole beaches is batsh*t crazy when it comes to NIMBYism so it will never properly develop.
Everyone I talk to outside of my little real estate circles thinks downtown is millions of homeless people and if you can't park in front of the doorway, it's not worth going to (that mentality actually affects some of my own co-workers and as we move buildings here soon there are some who are freaking out they may need to walk a block to their parking).
I run in multiple real estate groups and really not all of them care at all about downtown. Plenty of people are basically just involved in building suburban housing, often of relatively low quality. They have no idea what goes on downtown. I talk to plenty of people who have never really heard of "TOD" or concepts such as that we talk about on this forum...
And by and large, despite the fact that people do travel, it really does seem like people in general here quite literally have no idea what they're actually missing, or it just doesn't compute that we too could have things that other cities have.
I say all of this because I do think this mentality around here essentially allows the city to just carry on as horribly as it does. People just don't care.
Quote from: thelakelander on July 18, 2023, 11:04:38 PM
Quote from: simms3 on July 18, 2023, 07:25:40 PM
Quote from: thelakelander on July 17, 2023, 05:31:02 PM
The mystery for downtown's office market struggling since the 1990s is consolidation in the banking and insurance industries. In the 1980s, our skyline was larger than our size. However, we lost all those companies that built all those towers for their corporate headquarters. No more Barnett, Florida National, Charter, Gulf Life, Independent Life, American Heritage, etc. Our loss has been Uptown Charlotte's gain. We still have some backfilling to do.
Maybe in the 1990s we were a larger office market relative to our population/size (I just don't know), and that being driven by those industries/office users. But now we are quite a small office market relative to our population/size, and for whatever reason we aren't drawing large office users to Jacksonville as much as some of our peer cities are, as evidenced by total lack of new construction here and plethora of recent deliveries and pipeline in other cities (and this despite drawing tons of new people to the area...I guess they are all either WFH or working service oriented industries).
Sad/dismayed that despite all of the hullabaloo surrounding both D&B and Paysafe, combined they aren't even occupying half of Town Center 2 at the moment, which in the grand scheme of things is not a lot of office space. I get jealous of HQ relocations to other sunbelt cities such as Raleigh, Charlotte, Nashville, Tampa, Austin, Atlanta, etc that result in gleaming new skyscrapers, whether downtown or in the burbs.
Our peers these days are Memphis, Norfolk, Birmingham and Louisville, etc. moreso than Charlotte, Nashville, Tampa, Austin, etc. How do we stack up with those MSA's office markets?
It's really a mixed bag which cities we are comparable to.
In terms of population growth, we are doing really well. In terms of adding wealthy residents with high and super high net worth, we are doing really well. Certainly outperforming the first four cities you mentioned we might be closer to, and competing with the others.
In terms of how we are taking advantage of all of this to strengthen our downtown and other assets, add truly high quality jobs and nab worthwhile corporate headquarters, we trail behind basically everybody.
We'll always grow because we are in FL and offer a high quality of life for families. But our lack of leadership both in public and private sector means we won't become nearly as "dynamic" as those other flashy metros.
Ford on Bay delayed for another half year:
https://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2023/07/24/dia-grants-six-month-extension-to-hardwick-at-ford.html
Truist leaving the Northbank:
https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2023/jul/24/truist-moving-to-hanania-building-on-downtown-southbank/
Rad! Can you smell the momentum!
This does
not sound reassuring:
QuoteCarter CEO Scott Taylor, via Zoom, said capital markets in the development industry are frozen right now. He mentioned adding a hotel portion to the project. He said the developer is trying to find a program that works
"Right now, we have 358 residential units, about 25,000 square feet of retail and then trying to bring in a hotel component that will help us solve for that (return on investment) to where we can hit a completion and revenue grant that works," Taylor said.
DIA Director of Downtown Real Estate and Development Steve Kelley said the developer was supposed to present at the July DIA meeting.
The project is one of several projects reviewed by the DIA impacted by poor economic development conditions like interest rates. Kelley said lenders are not financing as many large deals, causing a gap in the financing.
"We all are familiar with the changes in economic conditions during this period," Kelley said.
Board Member Oliver Barakat said another solicitation on the property wouldn't result in much success. He said the six-month extension could provide more clarity. Board members Joe Hassan and Craig Gibbs asked if six months is enough time to make progress on the Hardwick at Ford on Bay.
Kelley responded that uncertainty in the economy did not make Carter extension a unique case. He didn't expect an immediate remedy to a project's capital stack, he said, but the six-month extension potentially allowed for a better situation.
Quote from: Ken_FSU on July 24, 2023, 05:26:10 PM
Ford on Bay delayed for another half year:
https://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2023/07/24/dia-grants-six-month-extension-to-hardwick-at-ford.html
Truist leaving the Northbank:
https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2023/jul/24/truist-moving-to-hanania-building-on-downtown-southbank/
Rad! Can you smell the momentum!
One disaster after another. Laure Street Trio another joke, Independent Life project stuttering. At least we have a run down jail for jobs and vibrancy.
No wonder the Jags have the city bent over a barrell. They're the only hope at this point. I'd give them what they want at any cost as otherwise nothing is happening bar some long shot cowboy developers delivering renderings.
^ As we have all been harping on, it comes down to the following reasons, in no particular order:
1. No competent elected leadership and possible incompetent staffing and board
2. No viable long term plan for Downtown
3. Forcing through questionable deals based more on incentives than economic reality
4. No attention to the small details vs. chasing pots of gold under rainbows
5. Impatience to just do things without investing in proper due diligence that may take longer but get things done
6. Losing credibility with failed outcomes and crazy projects like the autonomous vehicles
7. Catering to a small cadre of establishment developers and friends of politicos instead of what is best for the community at large
8. Lack of inclusiveness
9. Lack of discipline
10. Revolving door of who is calling the shots
11. Too many cooks in the kitchen
12. Failure to be collaborative, connect the dots, take 1+1 to make 3 or 4+
13. Failure to engage and incorporate the larger city, not just the defined boundaries of Downtown
14. Failure to manage urban core mass transit properly so downtown is not so auto-centric
Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 24, 2023, 05:42:21 PM
This does not sound reassuring:
QuoteBoard Member Oliver Barakat said another solicitation on the property wouldn't result in much success. Board members Joe Hassan and Craig Gibbs asked if six months is enough time to make progress on the Hardwick at Ford on Bay.
Get. Rid. Of. Them. All.
They don't even believe in their own ability to get a shovel-ready plot of prime downtown waterfront developed.
And again with the lack of accountability.
What were the interest rates like
20 months ago when the DIA awarded the contract to Carter?
With the new extension, the development agreement doesn't even need to be complete until June 2024?
What are we doing here?
It's just embarrassing.
The Daily Record provides a bit more context:
https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2023/jul/24/frozen-capital-market-pushes-dia-board-to-ok-6-month-extension-for-the-hardwick/
QuoteThe developer altered its initial design. Carter President and CEO Scott Taylor told the DIA board July 24 it is working on more changes to help meet the city's required 1:1 return on investment to receive the completion grant.
Taylor said as of July 24, the 358 residential units would be complemented by 25,000 square feet of retail space and Carter is trying to bring in a hotel operator to add more hospitality uses to the project.
According to Taylor, the construction costs in Carter's project portfolio rose by 30% in 2022 due to inflation. In May 2022, Carter had estimated The Hardwick would be a $150 million project.
Taylor said Carter has eight development projects under construction in the Southeast U.S. and $600 million in development activity.
He said his company expected to break ground on five or six projects in 2023 and has only started one.
"The capital markets, basically, in our industry are frozen right now," Taylor said.
"None of our lenders are contemplating, right now, any sort of new vertical development activity, nor are our equity partners," he said.
"We are constantly in those markets talking to those close relationships."
Carter is working locally with Arcus Capital Partners Managing Partner W. Ross Singletary II to try to find lenders from other regions of the U.S.
Singletary said possible TIAA Bank Field stadium renovations by the Jacksonville Jaguars and the city and the proposed University of Florida graduate campus Downtown have drawn interest from potential investors in the Ford on Bay location.
QuoteDIA Director of Downtown Real Estate and Development Steve Kelley told the board July 24 that DIA staff, not Carter, asked for the extension.
He said the DIA and developer are hoping the extra six months will allow economic conditions and capital markets to improve or, at least, have more certainty.
Kelley said most projects similar to The Hardwick in size and scope have "been negatively affected by the impact brought about by poor economic conditions, leaving it with a larger financial gap than was originally experienced when this award was initially made."
QuoteAccording to Kelley, the DIA does not have a strategy to assist Carter with the gap in its capital stack.
"That's why I'm asking if we've got some strategies that we can look at other than just hoping things get better. Because that's all it is, hope, at this point," board member Joe Hassan said.
The DIA is working with other developers on projects similar in scope to Carter's Hardwick that have not broken ground and are also trying to work through capital issues: Southeast Development Group's Laura Street Trio historic renovation; the 44-story residential and mixed-use tower by American Lions of New York City at the former Jacksonville Landing site; and Corner Lot Development Group's mixed-use residential Jones Bros. Furniture Co. historic rehab and addition.
Board member Oliver Barakat is a senior vice president for CBRE Inc.'s Jacksonville office, the real estate firm that solicited the RFP for the Ford on Bay on behalf of the city.
Barakat acknowledged and documented his conflict of interest with the city and did not work on the RFP for CBRE.
He said July 24 he doesn't expect another six months to be "the magic bullet."
"I think our dilemma is if we do not grant the extension, then the developer will not perform, and then what?" Barakat said.
"We would still own this property and I think doing another solicitation in the current environment would not result in much success."
Not surprised. High rises make no sense in the Northbank market. We need to do a lot of investing in ourselves and we're 20-30 years overdue. Should have been a convention center built there 10 years ago anyway. Just pay to get the riverwalk done.
Sure capital markets are weakened and costs have gone up, but it's time for the DIA to stop making excuses and do something other than just throw incentives at projects to try and make things happen. The truth is, they are generally working with firms that either don't have enough of their own capital or do, but are barely interested enough to push through when the first sign of trouble pops up.
Shad Khan doesn't seem to have a hard time getting things done (though he does have a sweet deal on Four Seasons) and neither do developers elsewhere.
Using West Palm Beach as an example, because its near where I live and loosely keep up with stuff here. Totally different market of course, with a big market for luxury condos in Downtown WPB (because housing prices are absurd on Palm Beach Island) and a strong demand for housing for rentals for young professionals. At the same time, there are major height restrictions due to proximity to PBI, so high rises aren't as economical as Miami. All these projects are currently under construction with little to no incentives. This doesn't include all of the stuff that has been built in the last five years or that has been approved, but not started yet. It also doesn't include five mid rise multi-family projects under construction (all 8 stories)
(https://www.related.com/sites/default/files/2023-06/acquiadam-assets/1_Hero_Completion_Rev1_210216_Cropped.jpg)
(https://fortewpb.com/wp-content/uploads/Forte-Featured.jpg)
(https://s3.amazonaws.com/bldup/update_images/photos/e83ab3263f22dfdb2c456bac16a0c1cc61a4ec76/original/300_Banyan.jpeg?1658263717)
(https://arquitectonica.com/architecture/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/06/one-west-palmFT.jpg)
(https://floridayimby.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Icon-Marina-Village_Dusk.jpeg)
(https://www.related.com/sites/default/files/2022-07/acquiadam-assets/related-corporate-properties-square-v2-13_575%20rosemary%20corner_rev2_moda_200519.jpg)
(https://images1.cityfeet.com/i2/QrHPmUMmiMR3aEWwBOyayWFjGZnX4K96B-P8kanE36E/117/image.jpg)
^^^Well it's what I've been saying for years. People are always like "you can't compare Jax to __", but I'm like can't we just get 1-10% of what any of the other cities are getting? Just 1-10%?
Regarding condos, it's a frustration of mine that we have such a weak condo market in town. Needs $800-900+ psf in sales to build new construction high rise condos. Villa Riva and Marina San Pablo penthouses top out at $500-600psf in resales. The beach has $1K psf resales all the time, but now they are limited to 35 ft everywhere so you won't see new condo projects out there where the market actually does justify them.
So frustrating that Tampa can get 10 flashy new buildings along Bayshore and we can't get one anywhere. Part of me wants that for the sake of housing diversity, skyline, etc but I also happen to have a condo development site I need to sell. Ughhhh
Quote from: simms3 on July 25, 2023, 10:40:25 AM
^^^Well it's what I've been saying for years. People are always like "you can't compare Jax to __", but I'm like can't we just get 1-10% of what any of the other cities are getting? Just 1-10%?
Regarding condos, it's a frustration of mine that we have such a weak condo market in town. Needs $800-900+ psf in sales to build new construction high rise condos. Villa Riva and Marina San Pablo penthouses top out at $500-600psf in resales. The beach has $1K psf resales all the time, but now they are limited to 35 ft everywhere so you won't see new condo projects out there where the market actually does justify them.
So frustrating that Tampa can get 10 flashy new buildings along Bayshore and we can't get one anywhere. Part of me wants that for the sake of housing diversity, skyline, etc but I also happen to have a condo development site I need to sell. Ughhhh
Out of curiosity, a friend of mine is wondering why the sale requirement is so high. In his experience, construction costs usually come out to the $300-350 psf range, and he doesn't get why $900 is needed to finance new construction. Is land acquisition cost particularly high or is something happening with building costs? Or other costs like parking?
Quote from: CityLife on July 25, 2023, 10:15:52 AM
Sure capital markets are weakened and costs have gone up, but it's time for the DIA to stop making excuses and do something other than just throw incentives at projects to try and make things happen. The truth is, they are generally working with firms that either don't have enough of their own capital or do, but are barely interested enough to push through when the first sign of trouble pops up.
I will say I'm not quite sure what the DIA's solution should be (beyond actually making some nearer term infrastructure decisions like parks, right-sized convention center, getting city agencies into vacant office space, etc). If national firms like Related and Carter and Spandrel can't make it work, and local firms like JWB and ADG and certainly Southeast are struggling, who else is there here?
Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 25, 2023, 12:13:37 PM
Quote from: simms3 on July 25, 2023, 10:40:25 AM
^^^Well it's what I've been saying for years. People are always like "you can't compare Jax to __", but I'm like can't we just get 1-10% of what any of the other cities are getting? Just 1-10%?
Regarding condos, it's a frustration of mine that we have such a weak condo market in town. Needs $800-900+ psf in sales to build new construction high rise condos. Villa Riva and Marina San Pablo penthouses top out at $500-600psf in resales. The beach has $1K psf resales all the time, but now they are limited to 35 ft everywhere so you won't see new condo projects out there where the market actually does justify them.
So frustrating that Tampa can get 10 flashy new buildings along Bayshore and we can't get one anywhere. Part of me wants that for the sake of housing diversity, skyline, etc but I also happen to have a condo development site I need to sell. Ughhhh
Out of curiosity, a friend of mine is wondering why the sale requirement is so high. In his experience, construction costs usually come out to the $300-350 psf range, and he doesn't get why $900 is needed to finance new construction. Is land acquisition cost particularly high or is something happening with building costs? Or other costs like parking?
Captain Zissou can probably speak to this more relevantly based on the prominent deal he is close to, but for typical poured concrete high rise construction residential condos, the all-in (including buildout) PSF costs are $600-700 psf. There's more to this than just the core/shell. The land could be high, but for instance I've been told straight to my face by condo developers in S FL looking at my site that it doesn't matter if the land is worth $10M or $2M, either way is a smaller percentage of the overall deal if say 80 condo units were completed going up 20 stories. What they want to know is that they will be able to sell the condos in our market at the pricing needed to construct the tower, and unfortunately we don't have the numbers to indicate that. In Azure's case, the land was about $10M, and so that probably did add considerable PSF costs to each unit considering there were only 26 units! Azure also has a glass curtain wall going up, and those are very expensive, as well.
I tried pulling some relevant permits to showcase an example - for instance, I tried finding Craft Construction's (Azure) permits both with COJ and Jax Beach, with no luck. However, Mayo Clinic's tower addition is costing $764psf all-in including the buildout, and so being a hospital with added complexity and some major FF&E in that cost basis as well, it's above what you would expect for condos. However, once you move past wood-frame/5-floors, and you move to high-end interior finishes, it's really a whole different ballgame from the kinds of apartment construction we see around our area, in terms of construction costs.
With condos too you have to factor in fairly major warranty reserves as a holdback, and just tons more risk overall so the return profile gets inflated by everyone involved.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 25, 2023, 12:13:37 PM
Out of curiosity, a friend of mine is wondering why the sale requirement is so high. In his experience, construction costs usually come out to the $300-350 psf range, and he doesn't get why $900 is needed to finance new construction. Is land acquisition cost particularly high or is something happening with building costs? Or other costs like parking?
Like Simms said, costs for concrete/steel construction and high end finishes are much higher than $300-350 psf these days. Basic materials like concrete and glass went through the roof last year and have barely come back down. Natural stone, high end electrical and lighting, and high end appliances and fixtures have gone up in price considerably in the last couple years. Waterfront sites in Jacksonville that could ultimately command higher sales prices also tend to have a number of complicated site conditions or remediation requirements. These things all factor into the high overall costs of development.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 25, 2023, 12:13:37 PM
I will say I'm not quite sure what the DIA's solution should be (beyond actually making some nearer term infrastructure decisions like parks, right-sized convention center, getting city agencies into vacant office space, etc). If national firms like Related and Carter and Spandrel can't make it work, and local firms like JWB and ADG and certainly Southeast are struggling, who else is there here?
We haven't adequately invested in our public streets, parks, facilities, etc. for more than 20 years.....probably since BJP. The economy was crap during the Brown administration, so I get that the city did not necessarily have the budget at that time to get some of these critical quality of life improvements completed. Curry hurt downtown more than he helped it but the city now has more money than in previous years to spend. It's time to invest in ourselves and build an environment where market rate projects become more feasible. That's the low hanging fruit answer that's been slapping us in the face for a while now. New built skyscrapers are literally a pipe dream right now.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 25, 2023, 12:13:37 PM
Quote from: simms3 on July 25, 2023, 10:40:25 AM
^^^Well it's what I've been saying for years. People are always like "you can't compare Jax to __", but I'm like can't we just get 1-10% of what any of the other cities are getting? Just 1-10%?
Regarding condos, it's a frustration of mine that we have such a weak condo market in town. Needs $800-900+ psf in sales to build new construction high rise condos. Villa Riva and Marina San Pablo penthouses top out at $500-600psf in resales. The beach has $1K psf resales all the time, but now they are limited to 35 ft everywhere so you won't see new condo projects out there where the market actually does justify them.
So frustrating that Tampa can get 10 flashy new buildings along Bayshore and we can't get one anywhere. Part of me wants that for the sake of housing diversity, skyline, etc but I also happen to have a condo development site I need to sell. Ughhhh
Out of curiosity, a friend of mine is wondering why the sale requirement is so high. In his experience, construction costs usually come out to the $300-350 psf range, and he doesn't get why $900 is needed to finance new construction. Is land acquisition cost particularly high or is something happening with building costs? Or other costs like parking?
Quote from: CityLife on July 25, 2023, 10:15:52 AM
Sure capital markets are weakened and costs have gone up, but it's time for the DIA to stop making excuses and do something other than just throw incentives at projects to try and make things happen. The truth is, they are generally working with firms that either don't have enough of their own capital or do, but are barely interested enough to push through when the first sign of trouble pops up.
I will say I'm not quite sure what the DIA's solution should be (beyond actually making some nearer term infrastructure decisions like parks, right-sized convention center, getting city agencies into vacant office space, etc). If national firms like Related and Carter and Spandrel can't make it work, and local firms like JWB and ADG and certainly Southeast are struggling, who else is there here?
Those three firms are really not huge players nationally. Spandrel has basically just done a few mid-rise projects in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. Carter and Related Group are both bigger, but each has built virtually it's entire portfolio in very strong local markets that they know well, Atlanta for Carter and South Florida for Related Group. They aren't going to waste their time building projects elsewhere, unless it's a great deal for them. It's also important to note that the Related Group (who are doing the River City site) are not "Related", who have an absurd portfolio and are truly a national behemoth. Companies like Related could redevelop Downtown Jax with little to no need for outside capital.
Those type of companies are looking for vision, positive direction, competence, stability, and long term growth. All they need to do is read one of KenFSU's posts to realize Jax has none of those things going for it.
Hopefully Mayor Deegan can right the ship.
Quote from: thelakelander on July 25, 2023, 01:51:01 PM
Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 25, 2023, 12:13:37 PM
I will say I'm not quite sure what the DIA's solution should be (beyond actually making some nearer term infrastructure decisions like parks, right-sized convention center, getting city agencies into vacant office space, etc). If national firms like Related and Carter and Spandrel can't make it work, and local firms like JWB and ADG and certainly Southeast are struggling, who else is there here?
We haven't adequately invested in our public streets, parks, facilities, etc. for more than 20 years.....probably since BJP. The economy was crap during the Brown administration, so I get that the city did not necessarily have the budget at that time to get some of these critical quality of life improvements completed. Curry hurt downtown more than he helped it but the city now has more money than in previous years to spend. It's time to invest in ourselves and build an environment where market rate projects become more feasible. That's the low hanging fruit answer that's been slapping us in the face for a while now. New built skyscrapers are literally a pipe dream right now.
JAX has been trying to '
walk run' before it has learned how to 'crawl' for a few decades now. Always aiming for the grand slam when it needs to master hitting a base run first. The streets are needlessly (and disruptively) one-way, the sidewalks are empty except for the homeless, there is litter and barren lots everywhere, greenery and green space is in little supply and in a state of disrepair, office vacancy is quite high and lease rates are basement level low. And yet there is this expectation that massively expensive construction projects actually make sense in this environment. It's ludicrous.
DIA needs to work on the basics and get the 'soil conditions' improved. Work on getting the smaller projects completed like the ones JWB is doing, and get the First Baptist buildings in private hands. Finish the Johnson Park and Landing parks. Until things on the ground improve significantly, don't even waste time on a project over $50-60mm. It isn't going to happen, so don't waste the time on it.
Quote from: thelakelander on July 25, 2023, 01:51:01 PM
Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 25, 2023, 12:13:37 PM
I will say I'm not quite sure what the DIA's solution should be (beyond actually making some nearer term infrastructure decisions like parks, right-sized convention center, getting city agencies into vacant office space, etc). If national firms like Related and Carter and Spandrel can't make it work, and local firms like JWB and ADG and certainly Southeast are struggling, who else is there here?
We haven't adequately invested in our public streets, parks, facilities, etc. for more than 20 years.....probably since BJP. The economy was crap during the Brown administration, so I get that the city did not necessarily have the budget at that time to get some of these critical quality of life improvements completed. Curry hurt downtown more than he helped it but the city now has more money than in previous years to spend. It's time to invest in ourselves and build an environment where market rate projects become more feasible. That's the low hanging fruit answer that's been slapping us in the face for a while now. New built skyscrapers are literally a pipe dream right now.
Lake, we are all singing this same song but no one in power is listening. Again, to promote more development you have to create demand. To create demand, you need to give people something they want (starting with green spaces, cultural attractions and events, food options, easy accessibility, etc.). Jax city leadership isn't responding and this shows up in the results we see.
There's a lot I want to say to all this, but my first thought is the way that the DIA's new "Master Plan (https://issuu.com/dia.coj.net/docs/dia_downtown_master_plan_summary_web_issuu?fr=xKAE9_zU1NQ)" opens in part by saying that it does not include "Specific future uses of privately owned parcels - instead, developers have flexibility to respond to market conditions within the Downtown Overlay Zone".
I find that ironic, with how that doesn't even seem particularly true? The renderings later include plenty of specific visuals of what the privately owned parcels at places like the Berkman II site or in Cathedral Hill. Clearly even if they don't want to admit it they have some ideas, they just don't want to admit what those ideas are.
It's especially silly when the mere existence of zoning and land use is just that, prescribing specific uses for parcels, public or private. In some cities, they even provide blueprints for what developers are pre-approved to simply finance and get built instead of having to create a project from scratch.
I wonder what, if there were a shakeup at the DIA by Deegan and Salem (who appoint the board), it would look like to somewhat wave the flag and acknowledge the need to re-assess. Obviously there are big projects that are likely going to be a matter anyway, like the stadium and UF campus, and projects that might be worth fighting for at any cost (Laura Trio), but what if we politely asked Carter and the like to walk away and give us the chance to focus? Work on getting the smaller projects off the ground, actually commit to accelerating the timeline for things like two-way streets, restriping lanes for bikes & scooters, Riverfront Park, Friendship Fountain, JWJ, and having those amenities, or having an at least 10-year convention solution with the Hyatt, things of that nature. Would that work? Would it be helpful?
The mayor spoke (https://twitter.com/MelissainJax/status/1683518289241071616?s=20) at the Meninak Club yesterday about attracting young professionals and convincing them to not leave, how can she be shown that these kinds of changes in mindset will help do that?
Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 25, 2023, 03:47:07 PM
There's a lot I want to say to all this, but my first thought is the way that the DIA's new "Master Plan (https://issuu.com/dia.coj.net/docs/dia_downtown_master_plan_summary_web_issuu?fr=xKAE9_zU1NQ)" opens in part by saying that it does not include "Specific future uses of privately owned parcels - instead, developers have flexibility to respond to market conditions within the Downtown Overlay Zone".
IMO, this is okay. Yes, the market will largely determine private sector uses. However, a master plan should address public sector properties like catalytic sites, streets, parks, riverwalks, convention centers, libraries, public transit, jail, etc. Having a vision for these items and committed funding and timelines show we have some real commitment and skin in the game to making transformational public spaces. These types of commitments and investments can be transformational for the feasibility of market rate developments and additional private sector development.
I'm not saying we have to mandate "this and nothing else." And there's certainly a sense of "yes and" to what you're saying as well, but the point is that it should be as easy as possible to get something built downtown as soon as possible because otherwise we keep missing economic cycles and ending up with nothing. It seems that's going to mean guiding developers around like children to get to get their projects to the finish line on top of doing our part with providing public amenities.
Having good zoning, solid plans for public spaces, committed timeliness or their implementation and investing in them is what guides development. The market determines if a private property becomes a hotel, office, residential space or something else. The DIA shouldn't have to worry about that part, as long as there's general guidance (like a Form Based Code) on design to make sure it fits into the overall scene.
The Federal Reserve announced today that they are raising interest rates again. That could have additional effects on the capital markets and therefore on developers' ability to finance their projects.
I'm just amazed that rising interest rates and tightening credit are being portrayed as surprises on these projects. Inflation and the likely consequences were well-known a year ago. Are sophisticated developers not making projections for these factors? Cash flows get projected out for decades; surely interest rate trends over the next 24-36 months are considered. I'm not in commercial real estate, but I do have experience in finance, and none of the companies I've worked with over the past 2 years have been surprised by what's happening. Point estimates have been off here and there, but only by degrees. Victims of circumstance, these developers are not.
I don't think any of them or the DIA are surprised. It's more likely that they always knew. It's just being covered in the media now because a deadline is approaching that they know they aren't going to meet and it was discussed at a meeting where media was present.
Quote from: jaxoNOLE on July 27, 2023, 12:12:01 AM
I'm just amazed that rising interest rates and tightening credit are being portrayed as surprises on these projects. Inflation and the likely consequences were well-known a year ago. Are sophisticated developers not making projections for these factors? Cash flows get projected out for decades; surely interest rate trends over the next 24-36 months are considered. I'm not in commercial real estate, but I do have experience in finance, and none of the companies I've worked with over the past 2 years have been surprised by what's happening. Point estimates have been off here and there, but only by degrees. Victims of circumstance, these developers are not.
Cap Rates (your projected income less expenses/total purchase price) for typical downtown areas range between 3% - 6%. In Jacksonville, that will of course be a slightly higher range.
Short-term debt increases the per unit or per square foot cost to build, which "could" be mitigated with a larger incentive package.
Long-term debt currently exceeds Cap Rates in most circumstances (6%+ right now). Meaning, the more debt you take out, the lower return you will have. This on top of stricter DSCR, LTC & LTV metrics results in developers bringing more cash to the table to complete the same project, that started 12-24 months ago. Long Term Debt is rarely fixed at the beginning of construction. This has lead developers to prioritize their most fruitful developments. DT Jacksonville, is not one of those markets, sadly.
^When the Jags say that if a stadium deal isn't reached by their Q2 2024 deadline, project costs will increase by $100+ million, what's the math behind that? Any idea?
To me seems like BS, but here are a few ideas:
- Projecting the supply constraints (aka cost increases) on steel & concrete - apparently there are some heavy signals that concrete in particular is going to increase by double digits in 2023. Very large projects buyout concrete or steel typically long before it reaches the site. Maybe they see this changing drastically.
- They think their SR & LR debt (both) are going to be severely impacted by interest rates (deals of this magnitude with public funds can negotiate their entire debt as a package).
- There are maybe economies with 4S? (I doubt this though)
Beyond those three things I really can't fathom a jump in costs to that degree. To be honest, you need all of these factors working against you to make a difference that wide. Plus, economist think that rates will drop by 2025. So I'm not sure my logic makes sense in reality. Hence why I'd bet it's a bluff. Maybe its partially internal expenses (paying consultants/firms to seek alternatives for example.)
Quote from: Jax_Developer on July 27, 2023, 12:55:23 PM
To me seems like BS, but here are a few ideas:
- Projecting the supply constraints (aka cost increases) on steel & concrete - apparently there are some heavy signals that concrete in particular is going to increase by double digits in 2023. Very large projects buyout concrete or steel typically long before it reaches the site. Maybe they see this changing drastically.
- They think their SR & LR debt (both) are going to be severely impacted by interest rates (deals of this magnitude with public funds can negotiate their entire debt as a package).
- There are maybe economies with 4S? (I doubt this though)
Beyond those three things I really can't fathom a jump in costs to that degree. To be honest, you need all of these factors working against you to make a difference that wide. Plus, economist think that rates will drop by 2025. So I'm not sure my logic makes sense in reality. Hence why I'd bet it's a bluff. Maybe its partially internal expenses (paying consultants/firms to seek alternatives for example.)
Great info on these last couple of posts.
Appreciate it!!!
Of course! Let's hope they don't siphon another $100M lol....
Some friends and I were happening to read Missoula, Montana's downtown master plan (https://www.missouladowntown.com/downtown-master-plan/missoulas-downtown-master-plan/), and this section in particular stood out for reasons I hope are obvious:
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/994396497883963402/1147005421412954203/Screenshot_2023-08-31_at_11.09.44_PM.png)
New technologies making parking garage obsolete is nothing more than a pipe dream for people in that line of business. Good to see their plan point out the reality.
Quote from: thelakelander on September 01, 2023, 07:10:59 AM
New technologies making parking garage obsolete is nothing more than a pipe dream for people in that line of business. Good to see their plan point out the reality.
I don't know, Lake.
I think parking garages will be passe by 2178, and we'll be ahead of the game if we act now.
^ I hear that JTA has decided to move on from AV's to flying cars a la the Jetsons so parking garages are sure to be passé by this time next year. Boeing will be exiting the commercial and military plane and space business to build all the flying cars JTA plans to order. The future is high rise apartments with balconies that serve as landing pads. Heights Unknown is sure to be pleased with our new skyline. TOD on steroids. If anyone can do it, it is technology leading-the-world JTA!
(https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-CgQipK9yh9E/UF7D1fYc7GI/AAAAAAAAWRA/G3-G_pQCPHU/s1600/JETSONS%2BORBIT%2BCITY.png)
^ I will meet your image and raise you one ;D:
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/X7bWMxqzTAI/maxresdefault.jpg)
Blade Runner
Downtown investment Authority and Waterways Commission good candidates for Sunset.
( Fun to review Jax history Re the concept and implementation, function of " Authority " . As in JTA et Al. City Legal discourse.
" Commission". Same.
Thought I'd re-up this given the recent news with transition committee recommendations for development policy.
https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2023/sep/25/committee-fewer-steps-adaptability-in-permitting-downtown-project-approvals/
^What do you think about the transition committee's recommendations?
Fully fund riverfront parks.
• Connect riverfront parks and public spaces.
• Enhance maintenance for landscaping and physical assets through funding and capacity.
• Incentivize transformational projects.
• Contract directly with design firms to keep the project moving. If a change is needed, it can be made immediately versus waiting six months on the city process.
• (Acknowledge the) importance of public/private partnerships.
• Vacant Downtown parcels are needed for the Hogans Creek project. The city does not have the capacity for land acquisition both from a human resource perspective and funding.
• It's important that the city not sell, trade or give away any parcels near the creek until the design is more advanced.
• Every city department should understand the scope of the trade-off in the creek restoration projects.
For Downtown, Randolph said "higher interest rates are making it difficult for developers to move forward with projects without a greater share of public incentives, than usual; the development and maintenance of downtown infrastructure, including parks and other public spaces, is important to developers and business owners that are investing in downtown; and the myriad permitting and regulatory processes for programming, development and available incentives, needs to be simplified and better advertised."
Now wouldn't that contradict the fully fund riverfront parks when we have hight interest rates difficulty maintaining infrastructure. You can permit this and that doesn't mean the infrastructure is going to be maintained if they can't get the materials in fast and workers working on the projects They also talk about parcels near hogans creek not being sold off until a full plan is in order would that be a problem for gateway or unf if they decide on that area.
Quote from: thelakelander on September 25, 2023, 05:08:29 PM
^What do you think about the transition committee's recommendations?
Sounds like a number of problems could be addressed by higher and keeping staff. That was a familiar refrain during my transition committee experience. Jax has grown quite bit in the past decade, city staff has not.
Quote from: thelakelander on September 25, 2023, 05:08:29 PM
^What do you think about the transition committee's recommendations?
Like FSU says, a lot of these just mean hire and retain more city staff to do things that need to be done. City Council should support that but I'm not totally sure they've demonstrated the will to.
The changes to simplify applications and staff approvals and workshops seem like good steps that will be helpful for smaller developers and just getting things to permits faster. If we've already set development rules through legislation and codes and guidelines, it's unnecessary additional process to then require more hearings and discretionary additions beyond that for things that meet what's on paper. If you want the outcomes to be different from what's outlined, change the outline.
Investment seems like an obvious request, no surprises there. Question of course is how that investment is made.
The Specialty Center (essentially an open container zone for drinks purchased from riverfront bars) is a fun idea, the Sip & Strolls seem like a success and more activity on a more regular basis will be great as the area fills with residents and visitors.
One point here proposes contracting directly with design firms to keep projects moving, and a further step that'd be nice to see (although it requires more resources so it might be warranted for later away) is how some cities have even gone so far as to create blueprints for things like infill housing and mixed use that meet the requirements. That way, if a developer wants and has the land, they can simply take one of those blueprints, get permits (because the discretionary part has already happened) and get to work.
I don't understand why there needs to be an acknowledgement of the "importance of public/private partnerships."
Bunch of specifics about a future Hogan's Creek restoration. Would be good to avoid letting any flood risk parcels go back on the market in the future.
After that things get a little confusing and perhaps contradictory. I'm curious if the report splits any of this stuff by responsible party (DIA, DVI, Council, Planning Dept, etc) or if it's just formatted like this. In general the point seems to be "make the place nice, deal with problems, and get things built," which I broadly agree with.
Well, Downtown is finally #1 in something 8)! Lowest parking rates of top 50 downtowns in the US. I don't think DIA should be bragging about this indicator of demand for things Downtown.
QuoteJacksonville ranked No. 1 for cheapest daily parking and No. 2 for cheapest hourly parking, according to ParkMe.com, among the top 50 most popular U.S. cities on the platform.
https://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2023/09/28/parking-jax-cheap.html?utm_source=st&utm_medium=en&utm_campaign=ae&utm_content=JA&j=32864010&senddate=2023-09-28&empos=p5
They get criticized for having unreasonably expensive parking from time to time, so a response to that misnomer, I'd guess.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on September 28, 2023, 06:04:23 PM
Well, Downtown is finally #1 in something 8)! Lowest parking rates of top 50 downtowns in the US. I don't think DIA should be bragging about this indicator of demand for things Downtown.
QuoteJacksonville ranked No. 1 for cheapest daily parking and No. 2 for cheapest hourly parking, according to ParkMe.com, among the top 50 most popular U.S. cities on the platform.
https://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2023/09/28/parking-jax-cheap.html?utm_source=st&utm_medium=en&utm_campaign=ae&utm_content=JA&j=32864010&senddate=2023-09-28&empos=p5
Genuinely hilarious, and fundamentally ignorant the underlying laws of supply and demand, if the DIA is in any way bragging that Jacksonville has the lowest demand for parking of any of the Top 50 metros.
QuoteWhen it comes to getting people back downtown, Jacksonville is doing a poor job....
In Jacksonville, downtown visits are now 70% of their 2019 levels. By comparison, the national average is 74%. For further comparison, Jacksonville lags behind almost every major city in the Southeast, including its Florida neighbors of Tampa, Orlando and Miami....
Chapple urges city leaders to drill down, block by block, if necessary.
"Maybe there's hotels or classic restaurants that have really kept going — don't worry about those. Instead, identify the blocks that are dead and have a plan so they don't become encampments," she said. "It's about working on those quality-of-life issues. During the pandemic, there was an enlivening of street space, an opening up of parklets. We need to continue along those lines to see a diversity of people around the clock in downtowns. And that means having the right kind of uses."
https://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2023/10/24/downtown-recovery-trends-local-jax.html
Since DIA considers the Southbank part of Downtown, I hear a major Southbank employer will soon be exiting for the suburbs, as well. Not revealing names until they make it public.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on October 25, 2023, 11:29:53 PM
Since DIA considers the Southbank part of Downtown, I hear a major Southbank employer will soon be exiting for the suburbs, as well. Not revealing names until they make it public.
Lori Boyer and Company need to "give up the ghost" and allow someone else to get the job done.
Time for the annual insistence that everything is just fine, actually:
https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2023/oct/26/downtown-vision-2023-state-of-downtown-report-finds-8-billion-in-projects-in-works/
Quote from: marcuscnelson on October 26, 2023, 10:13:29 PM
Time for the annual insistence that everything is just fine, actually:
https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2023/oct/26/downtown-vision-2023-state-of-downtown-report-finds-8-billion-in-projects-in-works/
Fine, fine. I'll take the bait.
(https://i.postimg.cc/tRhkFxr0/DVI1.png)
(https://i.postimg.cc/fTDKCRFV/DVI2.png)
I'm guessing the full $2B potential possible maybe someday over the next ten years plan for Gateway Jax is in that $8B number. That project is no more in the "pipeline" than the fuddruckers at the landing.
Quote from: Captain Zissou on October 27, 2023, 01:39:39 PM
I'm guessing the full $2B potential possible maybe someday over the next ten years plan for Gateway Jax is in that $8B number. That project is no more in the "pipeline" than the fuddruckers at the landing.
The $8 billion pipeline features such sure bets as the U2C, a fully built-out RiversEdge, the American Lions tower, the Hardwick, and may even include the stadium and surrounding development, if my math is correct.
For fun, I just read through all 8 DVI reports covering Curry's two terms in office.
Will post some more thoughts later, but at first glance, man is it damning holistically.
Particularly post-pandemic/second term.
Also, we all obviously know that these DVI reports are ultimately marketing pieces and not science, but boy does the math get fuzzy in some of these reports when you start looking at them sequentially.
Quick response to David Bauerlein's piece here:
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2023/10/27/downtown-jacksonville-has-more-residents-coming/71315929007/
More specifically, a quick response to a few key quotes from the DVI.
Quote"The residential community is booming," Downtown Vision CEO Jake Gordon said.
Per the DVI's own report, the ENTIRETY of the "downtown" area that the DVI considers to be downtown (CBD, Lavilla, Sports District, Brooklyn, Southbank) added a grand total of
24 residential units in 2023. In terms of the entire Northbank (including the CBD and LaVilla), fewer than 170 units have been added over the last four years (2020-2023). In what universe does this constitute a "boom" in the residential community?
QuoteThe post-pandemic office market has emptied out space
Back in 2019, the downtown office market flipped the script when it had a lower vacancy rate than the suburbs. That year, the vacancy rate was 14.6% in downtown compared to 17.5% in the suburbs. It didn't last.
The office vacancy rate in downtown has climbed to 25.8% this year. It's 19.6% in the suburbs.
"The world has changed irrevocably, in my opinion, and people want to work from home," Gordon said.
Again, I hate to toss out a term like "gaslighting" casually, but in this case, one of two things has to be true:
1) The DVI is intentionally bending the truth.
2) The DVI is ignorant to reality.
Not sure which is worse.
I'm a data guy, and here are the hard numbers when comparing Jacksonville downtown office occupancy to the other major metros in the state. Notice how the bounce back has been starkly different for one particular metro.
(https://snipboard.io/ykH6BF.jpg)
It's not a cultural problem related to WFH/vacancy trends coming out of the pandemic.
It's a Jacksonville-specific problem.
If we break down pre-pandemic/post-pandemic changes in office vacancy rates for 2023 vs. 2020 in major Florida metros, it's pretty clear that we've got one outlier shitting the bed.
(https://snipboard.io/JG51oc.jpg)
Last thing I'll mention is the $8 billion "pipeline," and why no sane person should take these numbers seriously.
Let's take a quick look at the DVI's pipeline vs. projects that actual cross the finish line, dating back to say, 2016. For what it's worth, this year's anemic "spike" in completed projects is almost exclusively the result of private developments like the Jags sports performance center, Wolfson's Critical Care Tower, and new headquarters for FIS and JEA.
(https://snipboard.io/ZNdBE5.jpg)
If we look at the average pipeline over the last 8 years vs. the average annual completed projects, we see that, for the last EIGHT YEARS, we've had an average pipeline of $5 billion. Over that same period, we've had average annual completed of $300 million.
(https://snipboard.io/zSR8xo.jpg)
Long way of saying that, historically,
only 5.8% of our fluff pipeline has turned into completed development. Not trying to be negative, but I just don't know don't know how we sanely solve the problem if we're living in this fantasy land where things have never been better.
Thank you for putting this together Ken. It really highlights some major issues I have been thinking, but couldn't prove of course. The major problem we have, is the big shiny projects being the focus when really the economics need to be there for the smaller stuff too. We're so office heavy downtown, that the office sector implosion has legitimately killed DT (on top of some poor management!).
I'm somewhat convinced that the rents in the Brooklyn & Southbank areas will need to rise significantly, to make the rents sustainable outside of these premium areas. In the LR, I bet DT loses most of its office space, outside of the high rise towers and a few select buildings.
Quote from: Ken_FSU on October 28, 2023, 02:53:12 AM
Per the DVI's own report, the ENTIRETY of the "downtown" area that the DVI considers to be downtown (CBD, Lavilla, Sports District, Brooklyn, Southbank) added a grand total of 24 residential units in 2023. In terms of the entire Northbank (including the CBD and LaVilla), fewer than 170 units have been added over the last four years (2020-2023). In what universe does this constitute a "boom" in the residential community?
QuoteIt's not a cultural problem related to WFH/vacancy trends coming out of the pandemic.
It's a Jacksonville-specific problem.
If we break down pre-pandemic/post-pandemic changes in office vacancy rates for 2023 vs. 2020 in major Florida metros, it's pretty clear that we've got one outlier shitting the bed.
QuoteIf we look at the average pipeline over the last 8 years vs. the average annual completed projects, we see that, for the last EIGHT YEARS, we've had an average pipeline of $5 billion. Over that same period, we've had average annual completed of $300 million.
Long way of saying that, historically, only 5.8% of our fluff pipeline has turned into completed development.
Not trying to be negative, but I just don't know don't know how we sanely solve the problem if we're living in this fantasy land where things have never been better.
Great analysis. We have a problem and its pretty evident to anyone who has traveled to just about any downtown outside of Jacksonville in recent years. Periodic concerts hosted on a vacant lot formerly known as the Landing, is going to change that. However, the best thing to do is what's bolded in red. You can't adequately address the problem if you're not willing to admit it. Luckily, one of the most needed moves to flip the apple cart in a different direction just happened. Now its time to go to work to fix the damage.
Quote from: Jax_Developer on October 28, 2023, 08:23:08 AM
The major problem we have, is the big shiny projects being the focus when really the economics need to be there for the smaller stuff too.
Bingo. When you strip out all the fluff from Brooklyn/Riverside that the DVI uses to pad the numbers, you can see how bleak new retail additions have been downtown under Curry's administration. I'm not even sure that Bread & Board and Jumpin Jax should count, because absent heavy incentives from their landlords, they wouldn't have been built.
Of the 5 retail additions in the CBD in the last three years, four of them are practically just storefront countertops. Contrast that with losing Olio, Zodiak, Mag's, Jacob's, 1904, etc., and it truly is a net loss. To your point, I think the evidence certainly speaks to Curry and DIA failing to bring small business to the city center.
(https://snipboard.io/JGVDUO.jpg)
Quote from: thelakelander on October 28, 2023, 10:27:29 AMHowever, the best thing to do is what's bolded in red. You can't adequately address the problem if you're not willing to admit it.
Fingers crossed we are honest with ourselves, admit where we're starting from with the CBD specifically, and go about fixing it properly under this new administration.
Reading stuff like this from a city-backed report is pretty scary, as it's just flagrantly dishonest.
(https://snipboard.io/QIh3TO.jpg)
Ken - how many of the establishments in your chart are now closed?
We killed +30 businesses with the forced closure and demolition of the Landing. That alone, set downtown back by a generation. It will be years before there's a concentrated spot for 30 businesses to open. Revitalization must embrace the Three C's. Any moves in the opposite direction, will only set things back further, regardless of the financial investment.
Quote from: thelakelander on October 28, 2023, 03:05:56 PM
We killed +30 businesses with the forced closure and demolition of the Landing. That alone, set downtown back by a generation. It will be years before there's a concentrated spot for 30 businesses to open. Revitalization must embrace the Three C's. Any moves in the opposite direction, will only set things back further, regardless of the financial investment.
I wonder what the below stat looks like had we not killed the Landing and sent said concentrated spot for 30 businesses packing.
Quote from: Captain Zissou on October 25, 2023, 04:05:15 PM
QuoteWhen it comes to getting people back downtown, Jacksonville is doing a poor job....
In Jacksonville, downtown visits are now 70% of their 2019 levels. By comparison, the national average is 74%. For further comparison, Jacksonville lags behind almost every major city in the Southeast, including its Florida neighbors of Tampa, Orlando and Miami....
https://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2023/10/24/downtown-recovery-trends-local-jax.html
Very likely, it would be the exact opposite. Instead of spending millions to eliminate 30 existing businesses to create a vacant lot, assume a fraction of those funds would have been invested to upgrade the place. We'd like have double the amount of retail, dining and entertainment on that site, anchoring a central green space that would have already been completed. This amounts to a critical mass in the heart of the Northbank, which likely stimulates spin-off investment and development on adjacent properties at a time when the market was ripe for those types of projects.
This is all common sense stuff and easy to pull off.........as long as we can keep local politics from hampering simple market dynamics.
While Jax is snoozing, Nashville is booming. On a recent trip, I counted over a half dozen high rises currently under construction to be added to the 2020 picture here and read of reports of more to come.
(https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c115fec9d5abbba78a23c93/1561397429771-80PJQ03KUXGKX34KRWID/Nashville+then+and+now.jpg?format=2500w)
Back around 2005 or so, there was a heated thread on Skyscrapercity.com about which ville would see its downtown transformed the fastest. People representing Jacksonville, Louisville and Nashville used to go at it. 18 years later, it's clear who won.
(sigh)..."if only Jax could." Right? No, we shouldn't shrink back to pre-consolidation city limit(s) but, if we're not going to live up to the "hype" of being in the top 12 cities population-wise in the USA, then we should ditch the consolidation thing, annex certain areas outside the old pre-consolidation city limits, and be number 35 or so biggest city in the USA (which is probably where we should be). If we did that, Jax would probably be slightly larger than Miami, or maybe a slight smaller in population (than Miami). At any rate, gobbling up all of Duval less the beach towns and one other town (if I remember correctly), doesn't up our image or make us who we really want to be or need to be because Jax refuses to live up to being a 1 million population top tier city. Lastly, click on the below link go to the diagram search form section and type in Nashville for the city, Tennessee for the State, and United States for the country, and "x" in "highrise, lowrise, and tower." Nashville currently has under construction a 700 foot plus tower, and other towers in the 600 and 500 foot range also under construction or proposed.
https://skyscraperpage.com/diagrams/?
Sidetrack
Of course, the purpose of the consolidation of Jacksonville and Duval County (sorta minus the 3 Beaches towns and Baldwin) was not to "be the largest city in area" or reach a certain population. As I remember, the City pop was around 200k at the time, and the miles and miles of pine trees outside the old city limits didn't add that many people.
The purposes of consolidation were to end duplicative governments and to dilute Black voting power.
We now return you to your regularly scheduled discussion about the DIA
Quote from: Charles Hunter on November 05, 2023, 05:52:32 PM
Sidetrack
Of course, the purpose of the consolidation of Jacksonville and Duval County (sorta minus the 3 Beaches towns and Baldwin) was not to "be the largest city in area" or reach a certain population. As I remember, the City pop was around 200k at the time, and the miles and miles of pine trees outside the old city limits didn't add that many people.
The purposes of consolidation were to end duplicative governments and to dilute Black voting power.
We now return you to your regularly scheduled discussion about the DIA
And?..........I just love freedom of opinion and speech, and I already knew about what you said my Friend; but...if we are going to uphold that image of a 1 mil pop city, we need to act like it, and look like it, that's all I am saying; and now I return you back to YOUR regularly scheduled discussion about the DIA as well; and don't forget, the DIA does have a play in all of this. Thank you so much Charles for your service.
If consolidation was an issue, Nashville should not be where it is today. Next to Jax, Nashville is probably the next, or close to next, largest consolidation (with Davidson County) in the mainland U.S.
FYI, Jax consolidation has been attributed to a number of drivers including addressing corruption scandals (lots of officials were indicted pre-consolidation) in both the City and County governments, creating efficiencies by eliminating duplication, growing and diversifying the tax base and diluting the power of the African-American community to control downtown.
The real reason for failure is not consolidation but poor, do-nothing, backward thinking, good ol'boy network elected officials. This poor leadership can be traced back to at least the era when Jax officials ran off the movie industry some 100 years ago. Milestones since include the 1950's when City leaders came down on Elvis Presley, attempted, in 1964, to maintain a segregated audience for the Beatles' concert in the Gator Bowl and in the 1980's when they tried to take down the event signage for "The Best Little Whorehouse In Texas" at the Civic Auditorium. Too often, "burning" issues like these trumped the nitty gritty ones of building a successful and growing city.
Sandwiched in-between are years of catering to special interests, power brokers and developers over everyday citizens.
Unfortunately, our citizens bear some or much of the blame as a result of being disengaged, uncaring, apathetic and voting (or not voting) for candidates based on issues beyond local ones, such as social, religious and party positions.
Much of this remained evident during Curry's administration. We can only hope Deegan can reverse some of this (not going to be easy cleaning out over 100 years of sins in 4 or 8 years, unfortunately). But, we must temper our expectations as even she has to fight vestiges of poor leadership still residing in a significant block of our City Council.
jaxlongtimer - Home Run! You summarized Jacksonville's problems succinctly and IMO accurately.
X100
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on November 05, 2023, 06:27:51 PM
and in the 1980's when they tried to take down the event signage for "The Best Little Whorehouse In Texas" at the Civic Auditorium.
LOL....what?!
LOLOL...gang up on. Beautiful. People will be people, and people have that right. It's not a matter of who bats a thousand, but respect others opinions even if you disagree; THAT my Friends is being a man. IMO Jax had an identity problem and still has. And in addition, all these decades later, the leaders of Jax are failing to ensure that Jax prospers, succeeds, and move up and forward rather than fail, and, remain "below the bar" relative to peer cities, etc. I'd better mention this as DIA has played into and contributed towards that failure or "unsatness." (or so you guys always say). Again, and lastly, IMO if you're not going to "raise that bar" for Jax to be world class, top tier, etc., then take back that consolidation "thing." Be who you really are; a city that's not top tier or even close to world class (and yes population does play a part IMO). One more thing so ALL OF YOU won't get it twisted; I love Jax, was born here, and raised here for a few years. I also lived in Jax in the 70's, 80's, and 90's, and to be honest, not much has changed, especially downtown and the Northside of the River. So something is wrong. I understand that shrinking back to previous limits is not the answer. But at least strive to improve and be more than what you say you are or what you appear to be, and yes, population says one BIG thing about Jax if you've never been here; i.e., you will be expecting something much bigger than what you know or have seen when you arrive. So I won't be told not to sidetrack, DIA PLAYS A PART, A BIG PART IN THIS IMO. Thanks. There. I said it all. I got it off of my chest. No, I don't know as much about all of this as you guys do because this is not my field of expertise, but, RESPECT MY OPINIONS. And if I am wrong, correct me; I'm a retired professional and I can handle it!
Quote from: thelakelander on November 05, 2023, 07:52:54 PM
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on November 05, 2023, 06:27:51 PM
and in the 1980's when they tried to take down the event signage for "The Best Little Whorehouse In Texas" at the Civic Auditorium.
LOL....what?!
It's true. Some Jax officials had a problem with the name. City tried to remove it from the sign board or use other words at the auditorium but the producers threatened to sue as it turns out they had a binding contract with the City to put the name on the board. City had to back down but not after getting its share of national publicity.
DIA head, Lori Boyer, was the featured guest today on First Coast Connect. Replay link is below. Boyer, after laying delays at the feet of Parks and Public Works, went on to note that the fountain would likely be ready in early 2024 but the rest of the park would be out a year.
Predictably, she saw downtown progress through rose-tinted glasses, even though the host brought up the concerns often presented on the Jaxson.
https://news.wjct.org/show/first-coast-connect/2023-11-03/next-time-on-first-coast-connect-downtown-development-why-flamingos-are-taking-over
^I look forward to listening to it!
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on November 06, 2023, 12:35:08 PM
DIA head, Lori Boyer, was the featured guest today on First Coast Connect. Replay link is below. Boyer, after laying delays at the feet of Parks and Public Works, went on to note that the fountain would likely be ready in early 2024 but the rest of the park would be out a year.
Predictably, she saw downtown progress through rose-tinted glasses, even though the host brought up the concerns often presented on the Jaxson.
https://news.wjct.org/show/first-coast-connect/2023-11-03/next-time-on-first-coast-connect-downtown-development-why-flamingos-are-taking-over
Thanks for the share, interesting listen!
Listening reminds me both of why Lori Boyer is so well respected at City Hall for her intelligence and knowledge, and why many think she's not the right person to lead the DIA.
Won't beat a dead horse on my own personal opinion, but a couple of interesting things stuck out to me from the interview:
1. The DVI includes Union Terminal Warehouse in their housing units under construction calculation; the DIA does not. I wonder why not? I drive across the Matthews Bridge a few times a week, and it certainly looks like the project is under construction. Is it just interior demo at this point?
2. It sounds like the new mayoral administration is frustrated with the lack of progress/slow pace with public works projects and is committed to getting the parks built and operating on a faster timeline than Curry and Co. They've got committees in place to understand what went wrong with sites like Friendship Fountain and make sure the same mistakes aren't repeated. I dig it.
3. The old JEA HQ/Universal Marion tower remains a prospect for residential conversion; Boyer pushed back on data showing that ground-up construction was cheaper than office conversion because of the accelerated timeline possible with conversion and the cost of concrete and steel. No acknowledgement that Jacksonville's post-COVID office bounceback trails both state and national averages by a significant margin. Just kind of a "because covid" shoulder shrug.
4. No acknowledgment or accountability at all for issues that have happened under her watch leading the DIA. Friendship Park? Public works fault. 30% higher office vacancy than national downtown average? Covid. Empty lots everywhere? Necessary to make way for future mega projects. Too much city owned property sitting dormant downtown? The city does not have a lot of property downtown. Homeless presence on the rise? The stats don't back that up. Seems to be a lot of retail vacancy? Retail is up considerably.
I'd just feel so much better if she acknowledged, as the head of the Downtown Investment Authority, that we've dropped the ball during this last economic cycle in a few areas, and have plans to do things differently in the coming years to avoid wasting another decade. It's clear that there are a lot of things outside of the DIA's control, but when I walk out-of-town clients down the Laura Street corridor at 11:00 AM on a work day and it looks like an abandoned, shelled warzone straight out the Ukraine or Gaza Strip, I don't like to be told I'm imagining things and everything is coming up daisies.
Spilled milk at this point, fingers crossed the new Administration replaces talk with action.
Quote from: Ken_FSU on November 07, 2023, 10:23:21 AM
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on November 06, 2023, 12:35:08 PM
DIA head, Lori Boyer, was the featured guest today on First Coast Connect. Replay link is below. Boyer, after laying delays at the feet of Parks and Public Works, went on to note that the fountain would likely be ready in early 2024 but the rest of the park would be out a year.
Predictably, she saw downtown progress through rose-tinted glasses, even though the host brought up the concerns often presented on the Jaxson.
https://news.wjct.org/show/first-coast-connect/2023-11-03/next-time-on-first-coast-connect-downtown-development-why-flamingos-are-taking-over
Thanks for the share, interesting listen!
Listening reminds me both of why Lori Boyer is so well respected at City Hall for her intelligence and knowledge, and why many think she's not the right person to lead the DIA.
Won't beat a dead horse on my own personal opinion, but a couple of interesting things stuck out to me from the interview:
1. The DVI includes Union Terminal Warehouse in their housing units under construction calculation; the DIA does not. I wonder why not? I drive across the Matthews Bridge a few times a week, and it certainly looks like the project is under construction. Is it just interior demo at this point?
Because its actually in the Eastside and not downtown. It just so happens that a small slice of the parcel is south of the expressway viaduct, which made it eligible for DIA incentives. It's one of the largest projects actually under construction, so it bolsters the reports numbers, but I'd agree with Lori Boyer in that it should not be included in the downtown statistics because the building isn't.
Quote2. It sounds like the new mayoral administration is frustrated with the lack of progress/slow pace with public works projects and is committed to getting the parks built and operating on a faster timeline than Curry and Co. They've got committees in place to understand what went wrong with sites like Friendship Fountain and make sure the same mistakes aren't repeated. I dig it.
Good move by them. The time for excuse making is over. Let's just get these things completed and open. We can then build off that momentum.
Quote3. The old JEA HQ/Universal Marion tower remains a prospect for residential conversion; Boyer pushed back on data showing that ground-up construction was cheaper than office conversion because of the accelerated timeline possible with conversion and the cost of concrete and steel. No acknowledgement that Jacksonville's post-COVID office bounceback trails both state and national averages by a significant margin. Just kind of a "because covid" shoulder shrug.
Keeping the old JEA Tower is a common sense lesson we should have learned after blowing up a perfectly adaptable City Hall Annex building. Tear it down and you're not getting that type of high-rise density as a replacement. With that said, I would force it into having to be a residential conversion. Let the development teams figure out the exact mix of uses. I promise you, they'll know much more than city staff and hired consultants.
Quote4. No acknowledgment or accountability at all for issues that have happened under her watch leading the DIA. Friendship Park? Public works fault. 30% higher office vacancy than national downtown average? Covid. Empty lots everywhere? Necessary to make way for future mega projects. Too much city owned property sitting dormant downtown? The city does not have a lot of property downtown. Homeless presence on the rise? The stats don't back that up. Seems to be a lot of retail vacancy? Retail is up considerably.
Up compared to what? I haven't bothered looking at the report yet. I assume it must be up compared to the previous year? On the other hand, I'd be willing to put money down that it's down compared to the pre-Landing demolition number.
QuoteI'd just feel so much better if she acknowledged, as the head of the Downtown Investment Authority, that we've dropped the ball during this last economic cycle in a few areas, and have plans to do things differently in the coming years to avoid wasting another decade. It's clear that there are a lot of things outside of the DIA's control, but when I walk out-of-town clients down the Laura Street corridor at 11:00 AM on a work day and it looks like an abandoned, shelled warzone straight out the Ukraine or Gaza Strip, I don't like to be told I'm imagining things and everything is coming up daisies.
Just have to take things said with a grain of salt.
QuoteSpilled milk at this point, fingers crossed the new Administration replaces talk with action.
This is the most important thing. We all know that a lot of time and money was wasted during the previous administration's terms. Whether someone admits that or not, we still need to move on and get things done ASAP.
https://www.costar.com/article/1546621985/jacksonvilles-retail-sector-second-in-the-us-for-rent-growth-during-the-third-quarter
Our retail market is up quite a bit in the past few years. Much much higher psf on a city average than from 2019. I believe Ken is highlighting that the DT market may not have had that gain, and you may even be correct Lake in that the Northbank rates have not changed. The rest of the city, has seen rates increase 20% or more in that same time.
^Yes, we're referring to downtown specifically.
Right, so why won't they acknowledge that?
I haven't looked at the report. So I'm not sure what period of time they are comparing. I'll eventually take a look.
Curious, how do you guys think the Laura Street Trio is going to play out?
1) City Council begrudgingly agrees to pay Southeast $65 million to develop the Trio (feels unlikely given other big ticket priorities and the mayor's stance on subsidizing other large private projects like the American Lions proposal)
2) The City refuses to pay the ransom, and Southeast lets property remain blighted for years
3) ?
Is there a third option that seems within the realm of possibility?
Southeast sells? The city tries to force a sale or take control?
Thinking "box, what box?"
3) UF chooses the Trio for their DT Jax campus and the millions of local and state money go to creating a mixed-use facility: classrooms and offices for UF, hotel rooms, apartments, and commercial/restuarants for UF and the public.
1) City Council agrees to pay Southeast any amount necessary to get the project done.
Came across this graphic today in a tweet (https://x.com/housebostonorg/status/1723052950421926310?s=20):
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F-mDhrJX0AAo-0V?format=jpg&name=large)
The obvious questions that occurred to me were, where are those 7,280 units in this market? What policy decisions are we making that has developers concluding they should build these thousands of units outside of downtown? Can we choose to change that?
We're one of the smallest markets on this list. No most of these are going up in the Southside and Northern St. Johns County. We need to work on getting a larger percentage of these units in Downtown.
The 14k under construction is actually more like 8-9k.
Nonetheless, number three on the list of most apartment deliveries is the westside. To me, that's pretty damning on the lack of ability to turnaround DT as a desirable market, even after all the $$ has been poured into it. Apartment economics are viable in every direction, especially with the influx the Northside will receive in 2024.
Funniest part is that we are in probably the second fastest growing city in the country for jobs & population (per capita) and we're still unable to capitalize on that growth DT.
Quote from: thelakelander on November 11, 2023, 07:20:49 AM
We're one of the smallest markets on this list. No most of these are going up in the Southside and Northern St. Johns County. We need to work on getting a larger percentage of these units in Downtown.
And though we are prone to forget this area, and the market is weaker there than other areas of Jax, how about the Northside (outside of downtown/urban core)?
Speaking of multi-family. Does anyone know if COJ is doing anything to address the Live Local Act that was passed last legislative session? The Act makes it significantly easier for developers to build multi-family throughout Florida, but also takes away a lot of a municipality's ability to regulate multi-family projects. Having been on both side of the table on controversial multi-family projects, the Act is well intentioned in some ways (allowing more affordable housing and combating NIMBY-ism), but really goes too far and limits a municipalities ability to ensure any type of compatibility with surrounding properties. There are legitimate possibilities for very tall and dense multi-family projects to be built next door to single-family homes. I'm not talking four-story buildings. I'm talking mid to high rise buildings.
From google, I can see that the City passed an Ordinance to give tax breaks for affordable housing pursuant to the Act, but I don't see anything on the Planning side.
Quick summary of the Live Local Act as it relates to multi-family development:
-Municipalities have to prepare an inventory of all property they own that is suitable for affordable housing. This was to be done by October 1, 2023. This is good. No issues.
-Municipalities have to approve a multi-family or mixed-use development if at least 40% of the units are affordable in ANY area zoned for commercial, industrial, or mixed-use development.
-If a project qualifies for the above provision, it is eligible for the highest allowable density in ANY zoning district in the city. This means a developer could get Downtown level density in the suburbs or historic districts. However, maximum height typically limits the maximum possible density.
-Speaking of which, the Act says that a municipality may not restrict the height of a qualifying project to anything less than the highest allowable height within a commercial or residential development that is within a mile of the project. In Jax, I imagine that anything within a mile of Mayo, Baptist South, Shands, and suburban office parks could automatically get a fair amount of height. Then you can also likely do the same anywhere within a mile of the outer edges of downtown, plus other urban areas where some height is allowed like Five Points and San Marco.
-If a development qualifies and meets all of the land development regulations, it must be approved administratively. This means no public hearing process. Simply a staff level review and signoff.
Here is where Jax has some teeth for the Act. It says that projects in any municipality that is less than 20% commercial or industrial only qualify for the above process for mixed-use projects. Given Jax's massive amount of undeveloped land on the outskirts of town, I would be shocked if it wasn't below 20%. Having to incorporate a mix of uses, will make it much harder for developers to qualify for the act.
A lot of municipalities are passing legislation clarifying how they will enforce the regulations from the Act. For instance, the City I am the Planning Director of is less than 20% commercial and industrial and we are clarifying that a developer has to provide a mixed-use development to qualify for the Act, along with some more minor clarifications. Hopefully someone in Jax is doing something similar...
^ A number of states & provinces as of late have chosen to strip municipalities of their zoning privileges. The restrictions levied by cities in a lot of cases have been cited as the principal reason for the current housing supply crisis, and most cities have shown little interest in addressing the problem, to the point that it becomes harmful to the state's overall economy. Hence these laws.
Quote from: CityLife on November 11, 2023, 10:31:32 AM
There are legitimate possibilities for very tall and dense multi-family projects to be built next door to single-family homes. I'm not talking four-story buildings. I'm talking mid to high rise buildings.
Quote from: CityLife on November 11, 2023, 10:31:32 AM
-Municipalities have to approve a multi-family or mixed-use development if at least 40% of the units are affordable in ANY area zoned for commercial, industrial, or mixed-use development.
-If a project qualifies for the above provision, it is eligible for the highest allowable density in ANY zoning district in the city. This means a developer could get Downtown level density in the suburbs or historic districts. However, maximum height typically limits the maximum possible density.
-Speaking of which, the Act says that a municipality may not restrict the height of a qualifying project to anything less than the highest allowable height within a commercial or residential development that is within a mile of the project. In Jax, I imagine that anything within a mile of Mayo, Baptist South, Shands, and suburban office parks could automatically get a fair amount of height. Then you can also likely do the same anywhere within a mile of the outer edges of downtown, plus other urban areas where some height is allowed like Five Points and San Marco.
-If a development qualifies and meets all of the land development regulations, it must be approved administratively. This means no public hearing process. Simply a staff level review and signoff.
So objectively, what is the problem here?
Quote from: Jax_Developer on November 11, 2023, 08:17:19 AM
The 14k under construction is actually more like 8-9k.
Nonetheless, number three on the list of most apartment deliveries is the westside. To me, that's pretty damning on the lack of ability to turnaround DT as a desirable market, even after all the $$ has been poured into it. Apartment economics are viable in every direction, especially with the influx the Northside will receive in 2024.
Funniest part is that we are in probably the second fastest growing city in the country for jobs & population (per capita) and we're still unable to capitalize on that growth DT.
The thing that I've noted recently is how the city continues to encourage this kind of spreading in where it authorizes public funds for housing. So many projects being authorized and funded hugging the beltway and far from frequent transit (for people who are less likely to deal with the cost of car ownership). So if the city is encouraging that kind of disparate investment, why wouldn't the market follow?
Quote from: Ken_FSU on November 07, 2023, 10:23:21 AM
2. It sounds like the new mayoral administration is frustrated with the lack of progress/slow pace with public works projects and is committed to getting the parks built and operating on a faster timeline than Curry and Co. They've got committees in place to understand what went wrong with sites like Friendship Fountain and make sure the same mistakes aren't repeated. I dig it.
I can verify this is the case. I can also attest that many of the delays in these projects haven't been on DIA's end -- DIA doesn't execute projects, city departments do. In past years, procedural roadblocks and lack of prioritization have delayed things considerably, and these are things the administration is working to fix at all levels. And I can certainly verify there's frustration about lack of progress -- I mean, y'all all know how I feel. What I hope we'll see moving forward is more incremental improvements and less flashy renderings that end up never getting built.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on November 11, 2023, 04:03:33 PM
^ A number of states & provinces as of late have chosen to strip municipalities of their zoning privileges. The restrictions levied by cities in a lot of cases have been cited as the principal reason for the current housing supply crisis, and most cities have shown little interest in addressing the problem, to the point that it becomes harmful to the state's overall economy. Hence these laws.
Quote from: CityLife on November 11, 2023, 10:31:32 AM
There are legitimate possibilities for very tall and dense multi-family projects to be built next door to single-family homes. I'm not talking four-story buildings. I'm talking mid to high rise buildings.
Quote from: CityLife on November 11, 2023, 10:31:32 AM
-Municipalities have to approve a multi-family or mixed-use development if at least 40% of the units are affordable in ANY area zoned for commercial, industrial, or mixed-use development.
-If a project qualifies for the above provision, it is eligible for the highest allowable density in ANY zoning district in the city. This means a developer could get Downtown level density in the suburbs or historic districts. However, maximum height typically limits the maximum possible density.
-Speaking of which, the Act says that a municipality may not restrict the height of a qualifying project to anything less than the highest allowable height within a commercial or residential development that is within a mile of the project. In Jax, I imagine that anything within a mile of Mayo, Baptist South, Shands, and suburban office parks could automatically get a fair amount of height. Then you can also likely do the same anywhere within a mile of the outer edges of downtown, plus other urban areas where some height is allowed like Five Points and San Marco.
-If a development qualifies and meets all of the land development regulations, it must be approved administratively. This means no public hearing process. Simply a staff level review and signoff.
So objectively, what is the problem here?
In some ways, it's good. There's definitely a housing crisis, and local ordinances are the main culprit of that, particularly in places where NIMBY neighbors have a lot of power like California. At the same time, there's always a risk having the state take away home rule. In this case, the state might not actually do things better than the local government that's closest to the issue.
For example, the bigger issue than lack of new development is the zoning that requires acre after acre of single-family homes with suburban density. However, when Gainesville tried to remove single-family-only zoning, this same state government stepped in and stripped their ability to govern themselves. Jacksonville's ADU bill could be targeted on the same grounds. It's a definite double edged sword -- the state isn't necessarily acting in ways that will resolve the crisis.
What I'd say is that I don't I trust the state enough to actually tackle the housing crisis that stripping local communities of home rule is warranted.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on November 11, 2023, 04:03:33 PM
Quote from: Jax_Developer on November 11, 2023, 08:17:19 AM
The 14k under construction is actually more like 8-9k.
Nonetheless, number three on the list of most apartment deliveries is the westside. To me, that's pretty damning on the lack of ability to turnaround DT as a desirable market, even after all the $$ has been poured into it. Apartment economics are viable in every direction, especially with the influx the Northside will receive in 2024.
Funniest part is that we are in probably the second fastest growing city in the country for jobs & population (per capita) and we're still unable to capitalize on that growth DT.
The thing that I've noted recently is how the city continues to encourage this kind of spreading in where it authorizes public funds for housing. So many projects being authorized and funded hugging the beltway and far from frequent transit (for people who are less likely to deal with the cost of car ownership). So if the city is encouraging that kind of disparate investment, why wouldn't the market follow?
Right I agree.. Very much a situation where the attitude has demonstrated a "let's just build here next" attitude. The reality of our local apartment market is that 3/4-story garden is basically our only form of viable apartment housing outside of premium locations/sites or incentives. The goal for downtown is largely stuck in a crux of:
- We want to build uses & intensities that "make sense" for an urban downtown
- In order to do these intense uses, the apartment market needs to demonstrate high rents/sf
- To get high rents/sf, you need a "luxury" or "higher end" environment
- To create that environment, there needs to be amentities/factors that make it "better"
- To do so, there needs to be a substantial tax or business base to support the excess tax revenue to fund such "things"
- Without these nice "things" the ability to create a "better" environment becomes challenging
- We're unable to build "what we think DT deserves" because of the lack of "life" & predictability to support the intensity of such development
Gets me back to the Ford on Bay, American Lions, and (omg) any attempt at development on riverfront. Could have used the entire debt market from 2018-2022 to fund a reasonable, 6-10 story project, like the Doro or Vista, on the Northbank. Yes tax incentive heavy, but it's not unrealistic. Could have actually established a rent base for the Northbank, to possible justify future projects. Instead, we give massive incentives to projects we know are economically unviable. Seems like DT is consistently trying to hit home runs when we need a few singles to get going. Land values would skyrocket if the DT market became a viable economic market to build in.
Gets me back to Jacksonville's bread & butter. Why take any risk DT, when you can go build 3/4 story garden all over town.. near the beaches, near town center, near San Marco, Saint Johns... I mean sites where retail is really killing it. Much more predictable and the banks like that as much as the city does.
Lori Boyer now calling for 15,000 residents (up from 10,000) for downtown vibrancy.
https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2023/nov/10/growth-of-downtown-residential-population-remains-a-priority-for-dia/
I've heard that 10,000 number now for at least 5 years, if not longer... The fact that we still haven't been able to reach that number despite the recent building boom all over the city and state should say enough.
I also doubt 15,000 residents will really change anything in regards to how vibrant downtown is.
10k, 15k, etc. don't matter. It's best to not use random numbers like this as benchmarks to something that is determined by several other factors and conditions. If we don't address the other issues, we'll hit 10k, 15k, etc. and move the goal posts again to 20k or 25k.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on November 13, 2023, 11:44:54 AM
Lori Boyer now calling for 15,000 residents (up from 10,000) for downtown vibrancy.
https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2023/nov/10/growth-of-downtown-residential-population-remains-a-priority-for-dia/
I don't know as much as you guys know about a lot of this stuff, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out or ask the question: "How can you be calling for 15k residents downtown when you fail, time after time, to bring new residential developments in or see proposed or planned residential developments through to completion? We don't need NO EXCUSES now Lori. I got blown away yesterday reading articles about what's going on in Tampa. Jacksonville, supposedly Florida's largest City, is behind ALL of the top 5 including midsized and some smaller Florida cities. (sigh)
^ there are plenty of new residential buildings in the DIA service area, with several more currently under construction. I'm not saying DT Jax is doing great, but there has been significant movement over the past few years in the residential market.
Curious, our loose definitions aside, what do grocers look for in terms of population base/density/proximity when deciding whether to set up shop? Word on the street seems to be that the Pearl Street group is targeting Publix. Would that be a tough sell? An easy sell? Does the presence of a Whole Foods & Fresh Market in Brooklyn hurt? Help?
We already have two grocers downtown. Back in the day, you needed around 20,000 for a store. Regarding the Pearl Street area, I'm aware of another chain. However, a site with frontage to State and Union is more regional. So anything there doesn't have to rely on downtown's population base.
Gateway project receives 100 million and construction on seven story building will start on oct 2024 and 22 story dec 2024 and parking garage feb 2025 and seven story april 2025.
Quote from: tufsu1 on November 13, 2023, 08:04:58 PM
^ there are plenty of new residential buildings in the DIA service area, with several more currently under construction. I'm not saying DT Jax is doing great, but there has been significant movement over the past few years in the residential market.
IMO (which doesn't count for anything) not enough to justify where she's trying to go; she'd better get busy I think.
Quote from: Skybox111 on November 15, 2023, 07:56:47 PM
Gateway project receives 100 million and construction on seven story building will start on oct 2024 and 22 story dec 2024 and parking garage feb 2025 and seven story april 2025.
That's going to be a small downtown within downtown in that area. Hope we make it to see that project to fruition/completion.
I know They said a while back that one of the buildings was going to start in middle of next year but now near end of next year.
By my rough math, the tale of the tape is:
Gateway Jax
Plans to deliver:
1,121 Apartments
70,000 square feet of retail space
on a $419m project
Is asking the city for:
$38 million in cash (completion grants)
$57 million in tax rebates via REV grant
Southeast/Atkins at the Trio
Plans to deliver:
312 units (143 hotel, 169 apartment)
6,500 square feet of retail space + a restaurant
on a $179m project
Is asking the city for:
$49 million in cash ($25m completion grant from the city + $24 million in forgivable loans)
$14 million in tax rebates via REV grant
I can't imagine it's going to help Southeast's case with City Council when you've got one developer laying out significantly more capital, assuming much more upfront risk, and loading their incentives on the back end in incremental tax rebates, while you're asking the city to lay down 30% of the project cost in cash upfront as a condition of moving forward.
Apples and oranges.
But to your comment, no it won't help. Quite a bit of effort will have to be put forth sharing why the Trio is a different animal than the Gateway Jax project.
Pretty sure the Trio is being held hostage...
58,000 SF new construction + 14,000 total SF bank building + 50,500 SF + 23,600 SF = 146,100 SF total
$179,000,000 / 146,100 SF = $1,225 PSF
The entire cluster of projects was once only $90M, per Atkins himself.
https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2017/dec/21/barnett-bank-building-owner-applies-for-dollar22-4-million-renovation-permit/
For reference, the Barnett Bank building was performed for roughly $170-$190 PSF. ($35-38M ish in total project costs as a high estimate). So the Trio must have gold toilets!
I don't know the square footage, but I recall that Cowford Chophouse came in around $10 million. Adjusted for construction inflation, I would guess that might be around $20 million today.
Maybe one of you could check this math and make that comparison as an historic renovation can easily cost much more than new. Question is how much more is appropriate.
The Trio is such a tough one to figure out.
On one hand, you absolutely cannot create a vibrant Laura Street corridor without redeveloping the Trio. Thus, if you consider Laura Street key to jumpstarting downtown, the Trio might be the single most important project in the CBD. Letting it sit blighted and rotting for even 5 more years should not be an option.
On the other hand, it is really hard to make a compelling case for handing a private developer $50 million in cash and forgivable loans to build a mid-sized hotel and luxury housing. With so many needs elsewhere in the city, I really can't fault anyone for thinking that it would be insane to give Southeast more money that we're putting into Riverfront Plaza, Friendship Park, and Musical Heritage Park combined for a development that they'll own and the city won't even realize full property taxes on for like 20 years.
Apparently Southeast has some sort of bridge loan on the Trio that matures before the end of the year. Would be interested to know what would happen to the property if they defaulted.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on November 16, 2023, 05:50:31 PM
I don't know the square footage, but I recall that Cowford Chophouse came in around $10 million. Adjusted for construction inflation, I would guess that might be around $20 million today.
Maybe one of you could check this math and make that comparison as an historic renovation can easily cost much more than new. Question is how much more is appropriate.
Generally with you on that. I guess the trio could be in a "very critical" condition and needs complete structural shoring. Chophouse I believed had a partially collapsed roof system and required an expensive brick preservation process. My impression is simply that the Trio is much more structurally sound, but maybe I'm wrong there. Also, the trio being 10x larger should have better economics (in theory).
The part that does not pencil out, is the fact that 40% of the trio build is new construction. Certainly crazy to put that build cost at $1,200+ PSF. So really what that means is the historical rehab is more than $1,200 PSF. That's where I think it approaches Chophouse levels on a PSF, which it never should. Hard to say how the city should move forward on this one. I think it sets a bad precedence.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on November 16, 2023, 05:50:31 PM
I don't know the square footage, but I recall that Cowford Chophouse came in around $10 million. Adjusted for construction inflation, I would guess that might be around $20 million today.
Maybe one of you could check this math and make that comparison as an historic renovation can easily cost much more than new. Question is how much more is appropriate.
While you can't compare the Trio to a modern tilt up concrete structure, I think there's also a distinction between the work needed here and what was done to Cowford. Cowford was falling in on itself and essentially was disassembled and rebuilt brick by brick. Each brick's location was noted as it was taken out of the building and then placed back in the same location. That added extreme costs. The trio's buildings were stabilized years ago and are not in danger of collapse.
Quote from: Captain Zissou on November 17, 2023, 09:57:02 AM
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on November 16, 2023, 05:50:31 PM
I don't know the square footage, but I recall that Cowford Chophouse came in around $10 million. Adjusted for construction inflation, I would guess that might be around $20 million today.
Maybe one of you could check this math and make that comparison as an historic renovation can easily cost much more than new. Question is how much more is appropriate.
While you can't compare the Trio to a modern tilt up concrete structure, I think there's also a distinction between the work needed here and what was done to Cowford. Cowford was falling in on itself and essentially was disassembled and rebuilt brick by brick. Each brick's location was noted as it was taken out of the building and then placed back in the same location. That added extreme costs. The trio's buildings were stabilized years ago and are not in danger of collapse.
The reason I brought up Cowford, aside from historic renovation costs, was to highlight what can show up unexpectedly. I know the owners of Cowford did not bargain for rebuilding the walls brick by brick when they started. I was trying to suggest maybe such unexpected issues are present in the Trio that may not be well known in the public domain at this time. Absolutely, they need to be transparent and justify their ask, including if there are such "surprises" they have uncovered.
New from Nate Monroe (https://x.com/natemonroetu/status/1785022667155743159?s=46&t=vkOnzVgzGQzmKS--73ASSg): City Council President Ron Salem is forming a special committee to review the DIA and its effectiveness on Downtown Development.
FYI, Mayor Deegan was on First Coast Connect Tuesday discussing DIA and Downtown issues, along with stadium negotiations and more for over 45 minutes. Monday, Lori Boyer was on discussing 2 way streets and more. Can play back both shows on WJCT's news web site.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on April 29, 2024, 03:15:18 PM
New from Nate Monroe (https://x.com/natemonroetu/status/1785022667155743159?s=46&t=vkOnzVgzGQzmKS--73ASSg): City Council President Ron Salem is forming a special committee to review the DIA and its effectiveness on Downtown Development.
one that doesn't include the Council member elected to represent downtown
Quote from: tufsu1 on May 01, 2024, 01:18:20 PM
Quote from: marcuscnelson on April 29, 2024, 03:15:18 PM
New from Nate Monroe (https://x.com/natemonroetu/status/1785022667155743159?s=46&t=vkOnzVgzGQzmKS--73ASSg): City Council President Ron Salem is forming a special committee to review the DIA and its effectiveness on Downtown Development.
one that doesn't include the Council member elected to represent downtown
And what use is Gaffney going to be on that committee? He's going to do whatever his donors want him to do.
Quote from: tufsu1 on May 01, 2024, 01:18:20 PM
Quote from: marcuscnelson on April 29, 2024, 03:15:18 PM
New from Nate Monroe (https://x.com/natemonroetu/status/1785022667155743159?s=46&t=vkOnzVgzGQzmKS--73ASSg): City Council President Ron Salem is forming a special committee to review the DIA and its effectiveness on Downtown Development.
one that doesn't include the Council member elected to represent downtown
I noted that too. And absent most urban core reps otherwise. The committee is stacked mainly with anti-Deegan reps except a token one in Joe Carlucci. You can bet he will be outvoted so he won't be any threat to their agenda but they can say they attempted to be "inclusive" to cover themselves.
If the City Council really cared about DIA and Downtown, where were they under Curry's administration? Salem appears to be trying to operate as a shadow mayor and/or set himself to run next cycle by claiming to have engaged in all major City issues while simultaneously working to counter Deegan's chances for successes.
So, here's where I fundamentally disagree with the lens through which Salem is choosing to look at this, per his bill.
(https://i.postimg.cc/QtTqQjbx/IMG-7894.jpg)
The assertion here that progress downtown has been stagnant for 14 years isn't necessarily true, and fails to consider a third factor beyond just the efficacy of the DIA as an entity and the appropriateness of the CRA. Instead, it seems to treat the DIA's entire history as a singular thing, divorced from DIA leadership.
We saw a LOT of momentum under previous DIA leads, particularly Aundra Wallace. There was genuine momentum. Significant retail was moving in. Volstead. Superfood. Bold City. Breezys. 20West. Cowford. Island Girl. Sweet Pete's. Candy Apple. Vagabond. Happy Grilled Cheese. Bellwether. Jimmy John's. Olio. Tossgreen. Quality residential developments like the Penisula, FSCJ Dorms, and Barnett opened. Hemming Park, under the first FHP group, was lively. OneSpark was huge.
Conversely, under the current leadership group, that momentum has drastically reversed, during an economic boom. Retail openings downtown dropped from 8 in 2018 down to like 2 last year. Meanwhile, places like Zodiak, Jumping Jax, Mags Cafe, Jacob's, and Olio have closed. River City Brewing was demolished. Despite a half dozen high profile RFPs, no private development has taken place on key riverfront sites.
I don't love everything about how the DIA is structured, but it would be tossing the baby out with the bath water to look at the last five years specifically and suggest that the issue with the DIA is foundational without considering who's running it and whether they've succeeded in that position relative the opportunity that Jax found itself in coming out of the recession.
Instead, we're getting these weird scorecards where Lori Boyer is getting all A+'s from the rest of the DIA for weird things like "Communicating with the public!" whilst we downtown workers trip over tweaked out vagrants in search of a restaurant serving food after 3 PM.
We've also got these weird stories coming out about how this whole audit is being done because we don't know how we can possible survive after Lori Boyer retires following what seems to be a guaranteed two year extension of her contract, and we need to make sure she's around to properly mentor the new hire.
It's not personal, but WHAT NOW?
We're investing way, way, way too much money into our urban core to keep wearing white gloves with DIA leadership as they say things like, "a lot of progress is being made, the public just won't see it for another 4 years." Life's too short and taxpayer money is too valuable to not be absolutely ruthless if we're not seeing growth and tangible results. Proofs in the cranes, not the drawings.
Zero accountability or willingness within the city to point out an obvious problem.
Quote from: Ken_FSU on May 01, 2024, 07:17:37 PM
Instead, we're getting these weird scorecards where Lori Boyer is getting all A+'s from the rest of the DIA for weird things like "Communicating with the public!" whilst we downtown workers trip over tweaked out vagrants in search of a restaurant serving food after 3 PM.
We've also got these weird stories coming out about how this whole audit is being done because we don't know how we can possible survive after Lori Boyer retires following what seems to be a guaranteed two year extension of her contract, and we need to make sure she's around to properly mentor the new hire.
It's not personal, but WHAT NOW?
We're investing way, way, way too much money into our urban core to keep wearing white gloves with DIA leadership as they say things like, "a lot of progress is being made, the public just won't see it for another 4 years." Life's too short and taxpayer money is too valuable to not be absolutely ruthless if we're not seeing growth and tangible results. Proofs in the cranes, not the drawings.
Zero accountability or willingness within the city to point out an obvious problem.
For some reason this seems to be a problem across multiple authorities around here. Appointed boards that constantly heap high praise and lavish salaries and insist that everything is just
fine until someone finally decides otherwise, at which point everything implodes.
It would be really Jacksonville to suddenly decide all at once to blow up the DIA and completely start over instead of doing the hard work of objectively reviewing Lori Boyer's leadership.
Worthy of a review of the historical record of Duval " Authority " placement. And implementation..... supposed, and Otherwise.
DTA, JTA.......
Yikes ..... this thread is multiple pages.......likely Irrelevant.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 01, 2024, 08:23:37 PM
For some reason this seems to be a problem across multiple authorities around here. Appointed boards that constantly heap high praise and lavish salaries and insist that everything is just fine until someone finally decides otherwise, at which point everything implodes.
^ The real problem with all appointed government institutional boards, including, not just agencies and authorities, but also universities and commissions, is that members are mostly appointed based on politics and donations to politicos making the appointments, not based on appointees' expertise, experience or passion relating to the mission of the institution. Patronage appointments are almost never good.
Whether JTA, JEA, JAA, the SJRWMD, UF, UNF, FSCJ, Planning Commission, state boards, city and state commissions, advisory boards, etc., it is rare to find a fully qualified group of board members acting in the best interest or with the best ability to serve the constituents or affected parties of said entity. It is one of our government's biggest weaknesses.
To add, why should a state-wide governor or legislature in Tallahassee be allowed to dispassionately appoint board members to local area boards that they have no real connection to or concern for vs. a mayor, local legislative body, local voters, etc.?
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on May 01, 2024, 11:38:28 PM
Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 01, 2024, 08:23:37 PM
For some reason this seems to be a problem across multiple authorities around here. Appointed boards that constantly heap high praise and lavish salaries and insist that everything is just fine until someone finally decides otherwise, at which point everything implodes.
^ The real problem with all appointed government institutional boards, including, not just agencies and authorities, but also universities and commissions, is that members are mostly appointed based on politics and donations to politicos making the appointments, not based on appointees' expertise, experience or passion relating to the mission of the institution. Patronage appointments are almost never good.
Whether JTA, JEA, JAA, the SJRWMD, UF, UNF, FSCJ, Planning Commission, state boards, city and state commissions, advisory boards, etc., it is rare to find a fully qualified group of board members acting in the best interest or with the best ability to serve the constituents or affected parties of said entity. It is one of our government's biggest weaknesses.
To add, why should a state-wide governor or legislature in Tallahassee be allowed to dispassionately appoint board members to local area boards that they have no real connection to or concern for vs. a mayor, local legislative body, local voters, etc.?
I agree with everything you said. However, I believe that the Governor's appointees
must be (in our case) Jacksonville-Duval residents, so
it's not like we could get someone from Tampa, Pensacola, or Miami, sitting on a Jacksonville authority. That doesn't mitigate your observation that in the vast majority of cases appointments are rewards for political donations or favors.
Edited to reflect reading the Chapter 349 (the JTA statute) and the JaxPort Charter, neither of which speak to where Board members must reside. So, if he wanted to punish Jacksonville for having a Mayor who is a Democrat,
could appoint a red-hat from the Villages, or the Panhandle, or anywhere.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on May 01, 2024, 11:38:28 PM
To add, why should a state-wide governor or legislature in Tallahassee be allowed to dispassionately appoint board members to local area boards that they have no real connection to or concern for vs. a mayor, local legislative body, local voters, etc.?
That's because JTA is legally a state agency, not a local one. If we copied, for example, Miami and established a solely local transportation agency then we wouldn't have to worry about state appointees, but then the agency wouldn't have all the powers that JTA has as an arm of the state instead of as a municipality. But of course, this is a thread about the DIA, not JTA, and we don't seem to have a whole lot to show for home rule either.