Metro Jacksonville

Quote(https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-LjnKsch/0/L/i-LjnKsch-L.jpg)

Billed as a project that will take Jacksonville and downtown to the next level, the conversion of the Skyway into a one-of-a-kind autonomous transit system called the Ultimate Urban Circulator has become the talk of the town. Either people love it or they hate it. Recently, Ennis Davis of The Jaxson met with the Jacksonville Transportation Authority to learn more about the agency's plans for the project and why it desires 40% of the gas tax increase proposed by Mayor Curry to fund the project.

Read More: https://www.thejaxsonmag.com/article/the-jaxson-asks-jta-12-questions-about-the-u2c

Broken record, but great stuff, and really respect the fact that you pushed him hard with the questions.

Gotta say, with the qualifier that I haven't had coffee yet, that I was thoroughly unimpressed with his answers.

Because the U2C will go into more neighborhoods, the 10-person clown cars will have a higher capacity than the existing Skyway? I'm pretty sure that's not how capacity works.

The JTA considers the U2C - with small cars moving at slow speeds in mixed traffic - to be the city's long term mass transit solution? Rad!

The public had input into U2C? Really. When?

Regardless of whether or not the Innovation Corridor is a success, the JTA intends to build out the full system? Cool!

We can't depend on federal or state money so we need to allocate $380 million to U2C, which doesn't even include the already funded Bay corridor?

Clown cars in mixed traffic will spur 11,000 residential units and a million feet of retail space?

Maybe we'll get to the lower income neighborhoods in 20 years after the first four phases are built out?

Hard pass.

Hate to say it, because I like Ford, but this whole things came across almost Lenny Curry-ish. Stubborn. Dismissive of other ideas. Overhyped projections. References to documents on the website.

Thanks so much for doing this and thanks for sharing. I have to say I am pretty discouraged.

Excellent, and thanks for pressing to try to get answers.
I'm going to need to read that a 2nd, and maybe 3rd, time. But my initial reaction, as someone who worked in government for a long time, is there are at least as many non-answers as there are answers.

Sigh...

The answers to the first question pretty blatantly suggest that any minor improvement to the existing APM system, coupled with expansion, would carry a ridiculous number more people than the U2C would.

I'm a little confused by how it's supposedly FDOT mandating mixed-traffic operation?

QuoteThe U2C leverages the latest emerging technologies, the 'No-frills' alternative is what we are currently operating and it is less agile and capable then the proposed solution.

It's just terminal tech bro brain in there, isn't it?

QuoteIn recent years, the JTA has identified initial funding for design work and studies for rail and other mobility solutions, helped the city secure the CRISI grant to address freight congestion and movement, and received an FTA grant to look at the potential TOD development opportunities around commuter rail stations between Downtown Jacksonville and St. Augustine. The Jobs for Jax project list proposes to fund 30% design work on that initial rail segment, and further work will require additional stakeholder involvement.

Can we talk about how ridiculous it is that they apparently don't want any further stakeholder involvement for the half billion dollar AV network that no one's ever done before, but trying to build rail that we know works requires additional stakeholder involvement?

QuoteThe autonomous vehicles being considered by the JTA are all electric, and larger than typical passenger vehicles used by rideshare TNCs, therefore providing greater passenger capacity. The JTA's fleet will have the ability to platoon, and will leverage an entire ecosystem of related technology to move customers more efficiently than the current Skyway trains can, or a single rideshare vehicle can.

I bet train advocates wish they could just propose completely hypothetical advantages when people ask why we should spend money on them. Also notable how they seem to be flat-out trying to compete with Uber. Which is especially silly when they're trying to compare one Uber driver to an entire network of 40-50 pods.

QuoteStreetcar systems are estimated to cost $28 million per mile at minimum.... The cost of building out the entire U2C system, including converting the existing superstructure, is $379 million or $37.15 million per mile.

Except that's not true, is it? Because like they said, the Bay Street portion isn't included in that. Which really makes it more like $54 million per mile. Nearly double the cost of a streetcar.

Ennis, great interview with many important questions and few "accountable" answers.  Love the buck passing to DIA, FDOT, the City Council, the JTA board, consultants, etc.  JTA is already posturing for failure.

I just wished you could have hit them hard with questions regarding the underlying AV technology today vs. what they are promising and how JTA plans to "outdo" everyone else in applying it timely, efficiently, cost effectively, reliably, sustainably and safely.  As I have said before, if the AV technology is not perfected, nothing else matters after that.

Quote7. Will the project be phased? For example, if the Bay Street Innovation Project fails to live up to expectations, is there opportunity to not spend additional funds on the restructuring of the existing Skyway infrastructure?

The U2C is proposed in 4 phases – the Bay Street Innovation Corridor is first. Autonomous Avenue, which is the conversion of Skyway track from the JRTC to Jefferson Station, would be next, followed by the full conversion of the remaining track and the neighborhood extensions. We intend to build out the entire system.

This answer says it all.  JTA will plow forward to"build out the entire system" even as it may fail.  This same attitude brought us the failing Skyway and history is sure to be repeated again with this "head in the sand" approach.

Quote9. How much TOD (Transit Oriented Development) is this project anticipated to stimulate?

Research by the University of North Florida (UNF) estimates that the economic impact of the entire LOGT project is approximately $1.6 billion. The Tax Collectors office estimates that this could yield approximately $280,172,160 million in tax revenue for the City of Jacksonville over 10 years.

According to ongoing research being conducted by WSP, the U2C potential TOD yield is approximately 15 million in gross square footage:

· 11,000 residential units

· 1.4 million in commercial-retail square footage

· 1.5 million in office

JTA studies paid for by JTA are designed to give JTA the answers it wants, not reality.  Not one Skyway study was even 10% accurate and you can expect the same here.  These studies mostly just give cover to JTA's bad decision making process and "hell or highwater" agendas.  How much TOD did the Skyway generate over 30 years?  Nada, zero, nothing.  In fact, it had the opposite impact as no one wants to be in proximity to the hulking and failing structure.  Why and how can any study project these numbers based on history?

Quote
The JTA's fleet will have the ability to platoon, and will leverage an entire ecosystem of related technology to move customers more efficiently than the current Skyway trains can, or a single rideshare vehicle can. The Skyway superstructure also allows us to transport and move people above grade, without interrupting traffic in the core, and across the St. Johns River.

A hundred Uber and Lyft drivers will have more capacity than this system.  Disingenuous to compare it to just a single Uber driver.  Let's compare JTA's "entire ecosystem" to the ride-share industry's "entire ecosystem" and then tell me about efficiencies and capacity.

As to the benefits of above grade travel, that really only matters if the entire system is above grade as a chain is only as strong as its weakest link.  If an AV is tied up in traffic at grade, all bets are off on the rest of the ride.  As is reliability of the schedule and resulting headway intervals.  How will the system handle AV's piling up on each other while the rest of the route has no service?

I hope Netflix has their documentary teams on this project as it is going to make for one heck of a story about how not to spend 400+ million taxpayer dollars in a few years.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on April 16, 2021, 12:39:55 PM

I'm a little confused by how it's supposedly FDOT mandating mixed-traffic operation?

They want to operate on Main St, which is a FDOT street. They also want to operate on Bay Street, which the DIA has influence over. Both the DIA and FDOT will not approve taking lanes out of those streets for U2C only lanes.

Quote
Can we talk about how ridiculous it is that they apparently don't want any further stakeholder involvement for the half billion dollar AV network that no one's ever done before, but trying to build rail that we know works requires additional stakeholder involvement?

Funny thing is that anything done will require additional stakeholder involvement (including the U2C) since they don't own streets or railroad tracks they'd like to use or cross to expand at-grade.

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on April 16, 2021, 11:03:00 PM
Ennis, great interview with many important questions and few "accountable" answers.  Love the buck passing to DIA, FDOT, the City Council, the JTA board, consultants, etc.  JTA is already posturing for failure.

I just wished you could have hit them hard with questions regarding the underlying AV technology today vs. what they are promising and how JTA plans to "outdo" everyone else in applying it timely, efficiently, cost effectively, reliably, sustainably and safely.  As I have said before, if the AV technology is not perfected, nothing else matters after that.

I didn't have to ask these types of questions. The coolness of AV technology and the years they've spent studying and playing around with it is all they really wanted to talk about. They take pride in that they are the only public transportation agency rushing to pull something like the U2C off. So depending on how you view this, either it can be exciting that others are watching you or you can view it as watching a pending train wreck happen in action.

Quote

Quote7. Will the project be phased? For example, if the Bay Street Innovation Project fails to live up to expectations, is there opportunity to not spend additional funds on the restructuring of the existing Skyway infrastructure?

The U2C is proposed in 4 phases – the Bay Street Innovation Corridor is first. Autonomous Avenue, which is the conversion of Skyway track from the JRTC to Jefferson Station, would be next, followed by the full conversion of the remaining track and the neighborhood extensions. We intend to build out the entire system.

This answer says it all.  JTA will plow forward to"build out the entire system" even as it may fail.  This same attitude brought us the failing Skyway and history is sure to be repeated again with this "head in the sand" approach.

In regards to the U2C, they are sold on pushing forward. There isn't really an alternative out there where there has been some serious consideration. They've been on the AV path, hell or high water, since 2015.

Quote

Quote9. How much TOD (Transit Oriented Development) is this project anticipated to stimulate?

Research by the University of North Florida (UNF) estimates that the economic impact of the entire LOGT project is approximately $1.6 billion. The Tax Collectors office estimates that this could yield approximately $280,172,160 million in tax revenue for the City of Jacksonville over 10 years.

According to ongoing research being conducted by WSP, the U2C potential TOD yield is approximately 15 million in gross square footage:

· 11,000 residential units

· 1.4 million in commercial-retail square footage

· 1.5 million in office

JTA studies paid for by JTA are designed to give JTA the answers it wants, not reality.  Not one Skyway study was even 10% accurate and you can expect the same here.  These studies mostly just give cover to JTA's bad decision making process and "hell or highwater" agendas.  How much TOD did the Skyway generate over 30 years?  Nada, zero, nothing.  In fact, it had the opposite impact as no one wants to be in proximity to the hulking and failing structure.  Why and how can any study project these numbers based on history?

There are enough positives out there with AVs to have an open and honest discussion and debate about how to integrate them into our community and transportation network. However, yes, those economic numbers are ridiculous. I hope they tone those down a bit. If not, it's a repeat of the crazy ridership estimates used to justify the Skyway years ago.

Quote

QuoteThe JTA's fleet will have the ability to platoon, and will leverage an entire ecosystem of related technology to move customers more efficiently than the current Skyway trains can, or a single rideshare vehicle can. The Skyway superstructure also allows us to transport and move people above grade, without interrupting traffic in the core, and across the St. Johns River.

A hundred Uber and Lyft drivers will have more capacity than this system.  Disingenuous to compare it to just a single Uber driver.  Let's compare JTA's "entire ecosystem" to the ride-share industry's "entire ecosystem" and then tell me about efficiencies and capacity.

As to the benefits of above grade travel, that really only matters if the entire system is above grade as a chain is only as strong as its weakest link.  If an AV is tied up in traffic at grade, all bets are off on the rest of the ride.  As is reliability of the schedule and resulting headway intervals.  How will the system handle AV's piling up on each other while the rest of the route has no service?

I hope Netflix has their documentary teams on this project as it is going to make for one heck of a story about how not to spend 400+ million taxpayer dollars in a few years.

Unlike a bus, streetcar, LRT, APM, etc., we don't know if JTA's fleet will have the ability to platoon. That's an aspirational dream at this point that only the future will tell. Those are the types of statements you have to take with a grain of salt when it comes to determining if it is in the local taxpayer's best interest to spend 1/2 billion on this project.

As a taxpayer, I'd rather see them move forward with the already funded $44 million Bay Street Innovation Corridor project. Get it up and running and let's see if it can do any of the things being promised. It will give the community a lot of answers and direction without spending one red cent of gas tax money on the project.

QuoteAs a taxpayer, I'd rather see them move forward with the already funded $44 million Bay Street Innovation Corridor project. Get it up and running and let's see if it can do any of the things being promised. It will give the community a lot of answers and direction without spending one red cent of gas tax money on the project.

Yeah, it would make perfect sense to at least complete that and let it be a pilot project and proof of concept before committing another $400 million to this idea. They could even set aside the gas tax for that purpose but with the option to divert it elsewhere if the pilot shows problems.

In covering the accident this week of two dead in a Tesla car accident, CNBC reported the below in which Tesla confirms they do not yet have autonomous vehicles.  I am sure Elon Musk and Tesla will be impressed that JTA thinks they do and are prepared to pack up to 15 persons (or more in their fabled "platoons") in their vehicles, not just two.  Who volunteers to be a JTA guinea pig?

QuoteTesla Autopilot and FSD are not capable of controlling the electric vehicles in all normal driving circumstances.

In a letter to the California DMV late last year, according to records obtained by CNBC and others, Tesla lawyers said that "neither Autopilot nor FSD Capability is an autonomous system." And in their owners' manuals, Tesla cautions drivers: "The currently enabled features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous."

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/18/no-one-was-driving-in-tesla-crash-that-killed-two-men-in-spring-texas-report.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/18/no-one-was-driving-in-tesla-crash-that-killed-two-men-in-spring-texas-report.html)

This happened last year in Columbus. Here is a video of the incident:

https://youtu.be/P7neBYD6Fxo

These vehicles now have seatbelts that all passengers are required to use. This AV pilot is now used for grocery deliveries instead of transit.

QuoteWoman tossed from seat on self-driving Linden Leap shuttle hopes they will not run again

COLUMBUS, Ohio (WSYX/WTTE) — It's been two weeks since Tajuana Lawson was thrown from her seat on the Linden Leap driver-less shuttle. The shuttles are still shut down as Smart Columbus said they are trying to figure out why the car came to an abrupt stop.

"We go about a half a block down the street, and I was thrown," Lawson said. "If anything drives itself, I'm not getting on it ever again."

Lawson said she hopes the shuttles don't start back up at all, after what happened to her.

"I don't know how you can use the public as guinea pigs like that. I'm just upset that I was a part of an experiment."

Bus drivers and union members with Transit Workers Union Local 208 have been against this from day one, saying why take jobs away from drivers?

"Technology is okay," bus operator Darryl Neal said. "But when it jeopardizes human lives, that's when people need to stand up and fight back against this type of technology."

The National Highway Transportation Safety Administration has suspended 16 autonomous vehicles in ten states after this incident.

Full article: https://abc6onyourside.com/news/local/woman-tossed-from-seat-on-self-driving-linden-leap-shuttle-hopes-it-will-not-run-again

We'll be on Melissa Ross today to talk a bit about this.

It appears something that will allow AVs to work in harsh weather conditions could be out next year:

QuoteA Finnish tech company is one step closer to bringing us autonomous cars
The problem is the reality of harsh weather conditions, as that is when people rely on their cars the most.

Sensible 4 Ltd., a Finnish tech company that specializes in software development for self-driving cars, will release Dawn in 2022, the first software in the field to withstand extreme weather, the company announced on Tuesday.

The problem is the reality of harsh weather conditions, as that is when people rely on their cars the most. "Why would we develop a system that only works in optimal conditions, in warm, clear, and sunny weather, as that's not the reality for most of the people?" said Harri Santamala, Sensible 4's CEO.

"This first release will have remote assistance, and it works both day and night in all weather conditions, like rain, snow, sun and fog," Santamala said in November.

Dawn will be available for application on any four-wheel vehicle, but Sensible 4 is gearing toward shuttle buses, as it is more "easily integrated" into the system.

"Our basic concept is that the vehicle must work in everyday conditions," Santamala said. "We believe this is the way autonomous driving becomes mainstream."

How do self-driving cars work?

Sensors. Usually, cameras. "Cameras are good in detecting and classifying objects in the vicinity of the vehicle, but they see poorly in the dark or through rain and fog, and they also have difficulty in accurately assessing distances to objects," said Santamala.

Full article: https://www.jpost.com/jpost-tech/a-finnish-tech-company-is-one-step-closer-to-bringing-us-autonomous-cars-656497

That would be good.  My Subaru has what they call the Eyesight system - helps with lane-keeping, following distance, and other AV-1 tasks.  Driving in a heavy thunderstorm, it shut off, it couldn't see any better than I could.

Which brings up the question - what is JTA's plan, absent this new Finnish tech?  Were they going to shut down service in the rain?  Bay Street is pretty much east-west, which means at certain times of the year, at certain times of day, you (and the U2Cs) will be driving directly into the rising or setting sun. Current generation AV cameras have problems with those conditions, too.

They are confident that they will figure out solutions to all of these issues, in terms of what they want for their own system.

Quote from: thelakelander on April 19, 2021, 04:05:55 PM
They are confident that they will figure out solutions to all of these issues, in terms of what they want for their own system.

Confident or cocky?  Confidence without foundational support is cockiness in my book.

I don't see any specific evidence from JTA regarding how they will solve currently unsolved or unresolved AV issues before others, in the time frame they have laid out for themselves or for the $400 +/- million budget they have proposed.

The Emperor is naked here and it needs to be called out.

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on April 18, 2021, 09:17:34 PM
In covering the accident this week of two dead in a Tesla car accident, CNBC reported the below in which Tesla confirms they do not yet have autonomous vehicles.  I am sure Elon Musk and Tesla will be impressed that JTA thinks they do and are prepared to pack up to 15 persons (or more in their fabled "platoons") in their vehicles, not just two.  Who volunteers to be a JTA guinea pig?

QuoteTesla Autopilot and FSD are not capable of controlling the electric vehicles in all normal driving circumstances.

In a letter to the California DMV late last year, according to records obtained by CNBC and others, Tesla lawyers said that "neither Autopilot nor FSD Capability is an autonomous system." And in their owners' manuals, Tesla cautions drivers: "The currently enabled features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous."

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/18/no-one-was-driving-in-tesla-crash-that-killed-two-men-in-spring-texas-report.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/18/no-one-was-driving-in-tesla-crash-that-killed-two-men-in-spring-texas-report.html)

Update from CNN:

Quote...There have been numerous criticisms of the Tesla Autopilot system from safety experts, including the use of the name "Autopilot," which some of those critics say encourages owners to believe the car can actually drive itself.

The National Transportation Safety Board, when issuing a report on a 2018 fatal crash involving a Tesla using Autopilot, said that the car maker was not doing enough to ensure that drivers remained aware of their surroundings and ready to take control of the car in order to avoid accidents.

"This tragic crash clearly demonstrates the limitations of advanced driver assistance systems available to consumers today," said NTSB Chairman Robert Sumwalt in a February 2020 report on the 2018 crash in Mountainview, California. "There is not a vehicle currently available to US consumers that is self-driving. Period. Every vehicle sold to US consumers still requires the driver to be actively engaged in the driving task, even when advanced driver assistance systems are activated."...

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/19/business/tesla-fatal-crash-no-one-in-drivers-seat/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/19/business/tesla-fatal-crash-no-one-in-drivers-seat/index.html)

I don't think it is too much of a stretch to assume that the last comment also applies to commercial applications as well.  Maybe JTA needs to stop calling its vehicles "autonomous" at this time.

JTA doesn't need something that is fully autonomous for this system. They only need something close to level 4. Level 4 autonomous systems have environmental detection, can perform all driving tasks under specific circumstances (known route), but require the ability for a remote human override in case of unforeseen circumstances. This is because it's a fixed route service, which means the technology can be tailored to the specific route conditions on that fixed route. Tesla's point is that we are far off from being able to just take any car and autonomously drive on any road wherever I end up.

Level 4 AVs already exist commercially. For example, Waymo in Arizona is running a taxi service without a safety driver in the seat.

A good reference on the levels of vehicle autonomy: https://www.synopsys.com/automotive/autonomous-driving-levels.html

All they want is Level 4.

I think I have a solution, combining the latest trends in tech and Jacksonville transit into one perfect game changer:

Autonomous Scooters.

Full speed ahead! (pun intended)

Quote from: thelakelander on April 19, 2021, 08:58:21 AM
We'll be on Melissa Ross today to talk a bit about this.

Figured I'd link it here for anyone who missed it this morning.

https://news.wjct.org/post/proposed-gas-tax-suddath-wjct-s-earth-day-national-stress-awareness-month

I just came from a Cosmo community meeting where Councilman Al Ferraro spoke briefly. He's a firm no to the gas tax....period.

Quote from: thelakelander on April 19, 2021, 09:13:26 PM
I just came from a Cosmo community meeting where Councilman Al Ferraro spoke briefly. He's a firm no to the gas tax....period.

I suppose it might be time to start putting together a Lot J-style list of where votes are likely to fall.

If I remember correctly (which is to say I could be wrong), they only need a simple majority in this case, which largely improves the chances. So far we have Diamond and Ferraro who are outright opposed to taxes in general. Then you have Carlucci and Cumber, who seem generally in favor of the tax but concerned about the U2C portion. Then Hazouri who from the sound of things is all in. So the question over the next few weeks is where the other 14 stand, and how those positions could change over the coming months as this is hashed out in public and behind closed doors. I'm thinking the ones to watch will be Carrico, Cumber, and Gaffney, whose districts are mentioned directly in the project list.

Becton is also a no. I believe Carlucci is a yes and Cumber will likely be a no.

I think Carlucci is a Yes, but not a solid one. I think a major public backlash about the Skyway could sway him.

I understand the opposition to the gas tax increase as it relates to the Skyway/U2C. But we need to remember this was to allow a reduction in the number of septic tank dependent neighborhoods.

We need to find and suggest an alternate funding approach. Water drainage/retention system non valorem  tax increase? This tax already exist. Increase it. This type of problem can no longer exist in a city of 1,000,000 people. Unacceptable.

^The easiest thing with the gas tax proposal would be to reduce the percentage of funds proposed to be dedicated to the Skyway/U2C. If the LOGT covered a traditional local 25% match to what is currently not funded (remember the Bay Street Innovation Corridor is already 100% funded), that would only be $95 million. That means an additional $284 million in LOGT revenue would be available to fund a variety of needs around the entire city.

Another thing to consider is that much of the U2C proposal is not eminent. Looking through the documents on the JTA website, we could be a good decade away from seeing an extension to the stadium and Riverside actually completed. We're another 15 to 20 years away from seeing extensions to San Marco and Springfield completed. The vehicles being tested now will likely be obsolete by then.

Autonomous shuttles, visibly similar to JTA's model, are coming to Yellowstone National Park next month:

https://www.nps.gov/yell/learn/management/automated-shuttle-pilot.htm

https://www.facebook.com/151418891540140/posts/4575317772483541/

Quote from: fsu813 on April 20, 2021, 01:35:50 PM
Autonomous shuttles, visibly similar to JTA's model, are coming to Yellowstone National Park next month:

https://www.nps.gov/yell/learn/management/automated-shuttle-pilot.htm

https://www.facebook.com/151418891540140/posts/4575317772483541/

Interesting although it is only limited to a Yellowstone campground, not the entire park.  At Yellowstone, the real test would be to survive the harsh winters there  ;D which could give Alaska a run for the money.  Would also be interesting to see how long the batteries last propelling these vehicles up and down steep and long grades found in many of these parks.  Finally, many park roads are narrow, curvy/have blind curves, and lack full markings that might serve as benchmarks for AV's.

Many major national parks already run shuttle buses (e.g. Denali, Grand Canyon, Zion, etc.) but they are regular sized so it would take quite a few of these to match their capacity.  Also, some run long distances (e.g. Denali's road is 90 miles long) so being slow moving could be a hindrance too.  Being electrified would be appealing to the NPS.  Yosemite has had issues with too many vehicle exhaust fumes getting trapped in its valley at certain times over the years.

QuoteSkyway conversion costs in downtown Jacksonville rise by 40 percent in two years

The Jacksonville Transportation Authority's estimated cost of converting the downtown Skyway system into a 10-mile transit network using autonomous vehicles has risen by about $123 million over the past two years, resulting in a 40 percent jump in the price tag.

The current $423 million estimate includes $379 million that JTA wants to finance through an increase in the local gas tax that City Council will dig into Wednesday in a public workshop.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2021/04/20/skyway-conversion-cost-rises-jacksonville-considers-gas-tax-hike/7282182002/

Quote from: thelakelander on April 20, 2021, 03:55:11 PM

QuoteSkyway conversion costs in downtown Jacksonville rise by 40 percent in two years

The Jacksonville Transportation Authority's estimated cost of converting the downtown Skyway system into a 10-mile transit network using autonomous vehicles has risen by about $123 million over the past two years, resulting in a 40 percent jump in the price tag.

The current $423 million estimate includes $379 million that JTA wants to finance through an increase in the local gas tax that City Council will dig into Wednesday in a public workshop.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2021/04/20/skyway-conversion-cost-rises-jacksonville-considers-gas-tax-hike/7282182002/

And then there is this:

QuoteCity Council member LeAnna Cumber, who opposes the JTA plan and says it would be better to tear down the Skyway and use the hundreds of millions of dollars on other transportation needs, said the increase in cost is "not a surprise to me because everything I've seen to date on this project has been a moving target."

She said while there probably has been an increase in construction costs over the past two years, a 40 percent increase "is excessive and there doesn't seem to be a solid plan for exactly what the project will look like at the end of the day."

"Without that, it's hard to really estimate project costs with any certainty, and I would expect costs to continue to rise," she said.

Carlucci, who supports the JTA plan but leaves open the possibility that the amount of local gas tax money going toward it could be less than JTA's request, said it's not surprising the cost of the project has risen.

"I don't look at it through a negative lens on JTA and (agency CEO) Nat Ford," Carlucci said. "He's dealing with whatever the numbers are as they get further into the project and into the estimates."....

As I have said before, $379 to $423 (adding in Bay Street already funded) million is the floor on this project.  I could easily see it doubling or more based on past such "public works" projects in Jacksonville.  And, as noted, for what?  Project looks sillier by the day.  Unproven  technology, poor capacity and speed to accomplish "goals,"  putting a square peg in a round hole by trying to use a salvaged Skyway track and mixing elevated with grade as a result, no handle on real costs, bloated promises of usage and TOD, etc.

If Council kills it, as they should, they will once again be doing a favor for those who initially put the proposal forward but weren't willing to put their egos aside and admit to backing down (see Lot J) from a project that would only generate major black eyes.

Yeah, $423 million is the floor. It will get more expensive as time goes. Mark my words, it will be cheaper to do a LRT starter or modern streetcar starter from scratch instead of attempting to make the Skyway something it was never intended to be. Because these are common technologies, it also won't take another 15 to 20 years to connect to a nearby community like Springfield or San Marco.

Yellowstone is essentially closed in winter. In fact most roads finally opened last week. So probably not a test of winter or harsh conditions as summer is pretty dry

My concern is if gas tax increase succeeds the total funding of U2C is a given. That's why I say vote gas tax down and up general taxes or alternative funding. I am believer in leaving Skyway as is and connecting to street car or LTR for expansion

Quote from: jaxjags on April 21, 2021, 02:31:14 PM
Yellowstone is essentially closed in winter. In fact most roads finally opened last week. So probably not a test of winter or harsh conditions as summer is pretty dry

Agreed, no way they are going to run these during winter in Yellowstone.  Even a conventional vehicle would have a tough time operating there.  Between the howling winds, snow/ice and subzero temps, it would be the ultimate challenge.  And, as you notice, there is hardly anyone there to ride the things as it is mostly inaccessible to the public during that time.  Now, if the AV's could give a ride to a moose, grey wolf, bison, caribou or grizzly bear...  ;D

Was there a question regarding how fast these things go and their hours of operation?

If I'm going to travel from riverside to downtown at 15 mph in and out of traffic I'd want to punch myself in the face.

Since these don't perform too well during rainy and/or dark conditions does that mean they're going to stop operating early in the evening and not run during a third of the year due to liability?

Quote from: Des on April 22, 2021, 10:01:45 AM
Was there a question regarding how fast these things go and their hours of operation?

If I'm going to travel from riverside to downtown at 15 mph in and out of traffic I'd want to punch myself in the face.

Since these don't perform too well during rainy and/or dark conditions does that mean they're going to stop operating early in the evening and not run during a third of the year due to liability?

On the rainy side, someone else should clarify, but I'm pretty sure they currently are claiming that the technology will be able to handle those conditions by the time the system is operational. Also, this is harsh weather that would affect the system. Daily ran, like during the summer, isn't the problem.

On the darkness point, most of these systems utilize LIDAR, which isn't affected by the available light outside. They'd be able to operate at any time of day.

Quote from: Des on April 22, 2021, 10:01:45 AM
Was there a question regarding how fast these things go and their hours of operation?

If I'm going to travel from riverside to downtown at 15 mph in and out of traffic I'd want to punch myself in the face.

Since these don't perform too well during rainy and/or dark conditions does that mean they're going to stop operating early in the evening and not run during a third of the year due to liability?

They'd like to get up to an average operation speed of 15mph or so by 2040. It will piss off human drivers pretty quick if getting caught behind something that slow. In Lake Nona, drivers get frustrated, pull into oncoming traffic, run stop signs, etc. to get around their slow moving AV shuttle pilot. So, there a safety adjustment was made. When the shuttle attendant notices a long line of cars backed up behind them, they take over manually and pull the shuttle over to allow the cars to pass. IMO, this is another reason why 100% transit lane dedication should be pursued to the fullest, despite some stakeholders like FDOT and the DIA being present obstacles.

Quote from: WAJAS on April 22, 2021, 10:11:33 AM

Quote from: Des on April 22, 2021, 10:01:45 AM
Was there a question regarding how fast these things go and their hours of operation?

If I'm going to travel from riverside to downtown at 15 mph in and out of traffic I'd want to punch myself in the face.

Since these don't perform too well during rainy and/or dark conditions does that mean they're going to stop operating early in the evening and not run during a third of the year due to liability?

On the rainy side, someone else should clarify, but I'm pretty sure they currently are claiming that the technology will be able to handle those conditions by the time the system is operational. Also, this is harsh weather that would affect the system. Daily ran, like during the summer, isn't the problem.

On the darkness point, most of these systems utilize LIDAR, which isn't affected by the available light outside. They'd be able to operate at any time of day.

Although these are issues today, most of what is proposed locally is still 10-15-20 years out. There's confidence that solutions to these issues will be resolved by then.

Lyft selling its autonomous vehicle division to Toyota. More evidence that autonomous vehicles in mixed traffic are farther away than originally hypothesized:

https://www.theverge.com/2021/4/26/22404406/toyota-lyft-autonomous-vehicle-acquisition-amount-deal

JTA invited me to their Test & Learn Facility at Armsdale. I won't lie, it got... a little heated. But there were definitely some interesting defenses of the project.

The team was incredibly passionate about their work, if nothing else. I still don't know if I buy it, but seeing the political attitude around the gas tax in general, I just wish there could be some fallback to only provide the funding for the rest if Bay Street opens and works, and then pass the bill.

They are passionate about their plan. I'll definitely give them that. However, no matter the passion, the public shouldn't be on the hook to pay 100% with local funds for the pet project. We have a lot more pressing needs in the community that will benefit a much larger population.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on April 30, 2021, 06:34:19 PM
JTA invited me to their Test & Learn Facility at Armsdale. I won't lie, it got... a little heated. But there were definitely some interesting defenses of the project.

What did you guys get heated over? What defenses of the project did you find most interesting?

Btw, I was in a Hogan Street Emerald Trail meeting the other day. Lori Boyer mentioned that they can't ramp down Hogan Street. The DIA isn't interested in screwing up that entire block with a ramp. That's probably where the crazy elevator idea comes from.

I was very insistent that although their setup at Armsdale is cool to look at, it doesn't necessarily demonstrate that the technology is capable of mixed-traffic operation on Bay Street. Of course I pointed out the cost issue; now they're claiming that the FTA has informed them that demolishing the Skyway would require payback of all $183 million with interest. There was a particularly heated bit about the virtues of being first. Several of them made speeches about how the program would help underserved communities eventually, and whatever's been done with FSCJ and how it will somehow attract young people downtown (I did respond that as a young person, we need more than AVs, but not sure that meant much).

When I pointed out the Metromover expansion, they said that Miami and Detroit had built out their systems while Jacksonville hadn't, which is why they were successful. And that the federal government would need to see the initial system fully built out before maybe pitching in for an expansion to (I'm pretty sure this was just an example, not an indication of actual future plans) SJTC. There was also some discussion about the platooning feature. Apparently they're dropping the ride hailing via app because it screws up headways. I got dressed down a few times with personal stories of the team members' backgrounds.

At one point near the end I was being repeatedly asked why I wasn't listening to what they were saying about how it all worked. They kept bringing up Waymo and I kept pointing out that Waymo's implementation is a pilot and doesn't necessarily indicate that their implementation would work. At another point I was talking about how I wouldn't mind private companies taking the financial risk, and in return was asked where progress began, and there was a whole thing about how Amazon and others would only seek the profitable routes while JTA would be serving underserved communities with its routes. They seemed to take insult at the idea that JTA wasn't a serious competitor in the industry, and the VP of Automation asked if him going back to Amazon and proposing the same thing somehow made it more worthy. They brought up Nat Ford's record for some reason. When I said that part of my perspective had been informed by people outside of Jacksonville the VP seemed to take offense to that. There's probably other stuff, it was a long three hours.

Apparently some unnamed company coming to Jacksonville is going to have a U2C stop inside their lobby. Not sure how that's going to work with wet tires but they kept bringing it up.

I think in the end we were clearly at somewhat of an impasse but it was an interesting experience nonetheless.

LOL thanks for the entertaining response. Some of those responses sound more like grasping at straws and not being able to answer the obvious challenges at hand that they have no control over.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on April 30, 2021, 08:53:48 PM
I was very insistent that although their setup at Armsdale is cool to look at, it doesn't necessarily demonstrate that the technology is capable of mixed-traffic operation on Bay Street. Of course I pointed out the cost issue; now they're claiming that the FTA has informed them that demolishing the Skyway would require payback of all $183 million with interest.

We can patch up the system, not expand and focus on feeding it with riders until it's useable life is up without paying back anything. So the FTA payback thing has no direct tie to taxpayers "having" to convert the Skyway to the U2C as currently proposed.

QuoteThere was a particularly heated bit about the virtues of being first.

The first of what? The first not to be a pilot? Or the first to rip apart a higher capacity fixed transit system and turn it into a Frankenstein mix of something that cost more than streetcar, that may or may not work as envisioned? I still see no reason why they can't be the first of whatever by implementing the already funded $44 million Bay Street Innovation Corridor.

QuoteSeveral of them made speeches about how the program would help underserved communities eventually, and whatever's been done with FSCJ and how it will somehow attract young people downtown (I did respond that as a young person, we need more than AVs, but not sure that meant much).

As proposed, the Springfield route won't even be done until 2035-40. Not sure why we'd even bring up serving underserved communities for something that may or not reach their neighborhoods after 2040. We can dump a lot more LOGT money into reducing the headways on the existing bus routes and get more bang for our buck (decades earlier) for underserved communities.

QuoteWhen I pointed out the Metromover expansion, they said that Miami and Detroit had built out their systems while Jacksonville hadn't, which is why they were successful.

I'm not for sure this is historically accurate. Detroit's system has been more successful than Jax's but it has been a failure. Miami's is much more extensive but it has been fed by TOD and a 24 mile long heavy rail system that connects the suburbs of Miami-Dade with the Metromover and Downtown. If following the Miami route, we'd do something like LRT between the Northside and Southside with a "Government Center" type station downtown that connects those riders with the Skyway. We'd actually do that first, before extending the Skyway.

QuoteAnd that the federal government would need to see the initial system fully built out before maybe pitching in for an expansion to (I'm pretty sure this was just an example, not an indication of actual future plans) SJTC.

What???? Did they actually say SJTC, as in the U2C possibly being extended that far? This sounds like a flat out lie. First, the U2C routes don't even match what the original routes of the Skyway were supposed to be. None of it really has anything to do with building anything to do with SJTC.

QuoteThere was also some discussion about the platooning feature. Apparently they're dropping the ride hailing via app because it screws up headways.

Could they give one example of where platooning autonomous vehicles actually exists? Also, how does platooning work with elevators, considering they can't ramp it down Hogan Street or Bay Street?

QuoteI got dressed down a few times with personal stories of the team members' backgrounds.

The group seems like cool people. Not sure how that equates to asking the public to fund this dream 100% with local money though.

QuoteAt one point near the end I was being repeatedly asked why I wasn't listening to what they were saying about how it all worked. They kept bringing up Waymo and I kept pointing out that Waymo's implementation is a pilot and doesn't necessarily indicate that their implementation would work.

I'm not sure why Waymo even matters. I get the impression that lots of conflicting messages are being tossed out to people, in order to sell this project. That's a big red flag.

QuoteAt another point I was talking about how I wouldn't mind private companies taking the financial risk, and in return was asked where progress began, and there was a whole thing about how Amazon and others would only seek the profitable routes while JTA would be serving underserved communities with its routes.

Since underserved communities aren't even being served with the proposed project, I'm not sure why they are even being mentioned as a selling point for the $379 million investment.

QuoteThey seemed to take insult at the idea that JTA wasn't a serious competitor in the industry, and the VP of Automation asked if him going back to Amazon and proposing the same thing somehow made it more worthy. They brought up Nat Ford's record for some reason.

Nat is a good guy but we're talking about something they literally have no control over.......and they want the public to fund it at the expense of more pressing public needs.

QuoteWhen I said that part of my perspective had been informed by people outside of Jacksonville the VP seemed to take offense to that. There's probably other stuff, it was a long three hours.

No one should take offense to better understanding the pros and cons of a proposal by reviewing peer experiences in other communities. I would hope that the JTA group would be doing the exact same. If so, it would help them be better prepared to respond to many of the basic concerns that  many professionals have identified as major challenges.

QuoteApparently some unnamed company coming to Jacksonville is going to have a U2C stop inside their lobby. Not sure how that's going to work with wet tires but they kept bringing it up.

The same can happen with the Skyway or a bus. This means nothing.

As I said, it was a long three hours.

Quote from: thelakelander on April 30, 2021, 09:25:17 PM

QuoteThere was a particularly heated bit about the virtues of being first.

The first of what? The first not to be a pilot? Or the first to rip apart a higher capacity fixed transit system and turn it into a Frankenstein mix of something that cost more than streetcar, that may or may not work as envisioned? I still see no reason why they can't be the first of whatever by implementing the already funded $44 million Bay Street Innovation Corridor.

Essentially to build a full autonomous vehicle network in a "dense" urban setting. I mentioned streetcars early on and the VP kept having little zings about how "can't do that with a streetcar" for things like rolling into a lobby or changing course to respond to floods (not sure how that works if you don't put the required sensors on every street) or the platooning thing.

Quote from: thelakelander on April 30, 2021, 09:25:17 PM

QuoteSeveral of them made speeches about how the program would help underserved communities eventually, and whatever's been done with FSCJ and how it will somehow attract young people downtown (I did respond that as a young person, we need more than AVs, but not sure that meant much).

As proposed, the Springfield route won't even be done until 2035-40. Not sure why we'd even bring up serving underserved communities for something that may or not reach their neighborhoods after 2040. We can dump a lot more LOGT money into reducing the headways on the existing bus routes and get more bang for our buck (decades earlier) for underserved communities.

The pamphlet they gave me still shows the "Autonomous Avenue" conversion starting soon after Bay Street, the Remaining Skyway Conversion two years after the start of Bay Street construction and Neighborhood Expansion two years after that.

I forgot to mention, they're making a big deal out of the Mayo Clinic thing using the Navya shuttle, heralding it as Level 4 operation. I kept saying that come on, Mayo Clinic's road isn't the same as Bay Street, but they insisted that Mayo is at times busier than Bay. So, I don't know.

Quote from: thelakelander on April 30, 2021, 09:25:17 PM

QuoteWhen I pointed out the Metromover expansion, they said that Miami and Detroit had built out their systems while Jacksonville hadn't, which is why they were successful.

I'm not for sure this is historically accurate. Detroit's system has been more successful than Jax's but it has been a failure. Miami's is much more extensive but it has been fed by TOD and a 24 mile long heavy rail system that connects the suburbs of Miami-Dade with the Metromover and Downtown. If following the Miami route, we'd do something like LRT between the Northside and Southside with a "Government Center" type station downtown that connects those riders with the Skyway. We'd actually do that first, before extending the Skyway.

I brought up the TOD thing, their response was the whole "AV in lobby" thing from the mysterious company and saying that the flexibility was a good thing because it's not like they'd stop serving the existing routes just because they've redirected for a special event or football game. Seeing as there are only a limited number of shuttles, not sure how that works. One thing I'm realizing I never got a chance to point out was that they made a big deal of how buses can be anywhere from $400k for a regular diesel bus to $900k for an electric bus, but if I remember correctly these vehicles are supposed to be in the $400-600k range.

And another thing, at one point they put me on the van, and I brought up what's been said here about how little money is going to Amtrak, and they were very insistent that JTA was the only one doing anything about rail at all, and how the JRTC was right next to and "connected" to the old terminal, and a whole thing about how expensive trains are. That conversation didn't go anywhere.

Quote from: thelakelander on April 30, 2021, 09:25:17 PM

QuoteAnd that the federal government would need to see the initial system fully built out before maybe pitching in for an expansion to (I'm pretty sure this was just an example, not an indication of actual future plans) SJTC.

What???? Did they actually say SJTC, as in the U2C possibly being extended that far? This sounds like a flat out lie. First, the U2C routes don't even match what the original routes of the Skyway were supposed to be. None of it really has anything to do with building anything to do with SJTC.

Again, pretty sure it was just a random example of a popular destination, because they were also claiming that Bay Street's actual average speed is low enough that something more akin to the existing AVs with a max of ~20mph are enough to keep up, and that buses only travel around 12mph in that area anyway. We were in the Olli then, and they did a little demonstration of the torque of the electric motors, and how the Olli can actually travel 50-60mph but is just governed to 20mph. I asked whether it could do anything like that autonomously, and they said no.

Quote from: thelakelander on April 30, 2021, 09:25:17 PM

QuoteThere was also some discussion about the platooning feature. Apparently they're dropping the ride hailing via app because it screws up headways.

Could they give one example of where platooning autonomous vehicles actually exists? Also, how does platooning work with elevators, considering they can't ramp it down Hogan Street or Bay Street?

They said was that we couldn't do that with a streetcar. I think they mentioned being able to have vehicles follow one vehicle, but I'm not sure. They talked about a hypothetical of sending 5 car trains with 1 operator to move 100 people each after games and special events, but they didn't demonstrate that capability. I had no idea the elevator thing was actually happening, so I never brought it up.

Quote from: thelakelander on April 30, 2021, 09:25:17 PM

QuoteI got dressed down a few times with personal stories of the team members' backgrounds.

The group seems like cool people. Not sure how that equates to asking the public to fund this dream 100% with local money though.

As I said, lot of talk about how Miami & Detroit did their thing, a bit of deflection about how they'd just been hired to make it happen and that the decision for AVs was made before they got there, and some sour grapes about "well, if they want to kick us out, their loss."

Quote from: thelakelander on April 30, 2021, 09:25:17 PM

QuoteAt one point near the end I was being repeatedly asked why I wasn't listening to what they were saying about how it all worked. They kept bringing up Waymo and I kept pointing out that Waymo's implementation is a pilot and doesn't necessarily indicate that their implementation would work.

I'm not sure why Waymo even matters. I get the impression that lots of conflicting messages are being tossed out to people, in order to sell this project. That's a big red flag.

The thing I'm struggling with is seeing a pathway to make changes without blowing up the tax entirely, especially seeing as most of council is more concerned about the tax itself than about what it would fund. Apparently one of them spoke to Cumber, and ultimately her opposition came down to it being a regressive tax rather than anything about the system.

Quote from: thelakelander on April 30, 2021, 09:25:17 PM

QuoteThey seemed to take insult at the idea that JTA wasn't a serious competitor in the industry, and the VP of Automation asked if him going back to Amazon and proposing the same thing somehow made it more worthy. They brought up Nat Ford's record for some reason.

Nat is a good guy but we're talking about something they literally have no control over.......and they want the public to fund it at the expense of more pressing public needs.

They seem to genuinely believe that they do have control over it. They were showing off the receivers that go up on poles and opening up the signal cabinets and talking about how they were deciding what system for vehicle communication would be the best to put in the cabinets.

Quote from: thelakelander on April 30, 2021, 09:25:17 PM

QuoteWhen I said that part of my perspective had been informed by people outside of Jacksonville the VP seemed to take offense to that. There's probably other stuff, it was a long three hours.

No one should take offense to better understanding the pros and cons of a proposal by reviewing peer experiences in other communities. I would hope that the JTA group would be doing the exact same. If so, it would help them be better prepared to respond to many of the basic concerns that  many professionals have identified as major challenges.

I mean, I didn't explicitly say that much of what I've received is serious concern about what the hell is going on over here, as well as flat out statements of the technology not working, and utter shock at the price tag. But I suppose that could have been inferred.

Quote from: thelakelander on April 30, 2021, 09:25:17 PM

QuoteApparently some unnamed company coming to Jacksonville is going to have a U2C stop inside their lobby. Not sure how that's going to work with wet tires but they kept bringing it up.

The same can happen with the Skyway or a bus. This means nothing.

I'm not sure I was clear. They parked the AVs inside the building for the day and said they literally expect them to have a stop inside the building. Like, roll in, let in or out people, and then roll out. I asked kinda sarcastically whether they were going to have doors as large as the big slide-up door at Armsdale but they didn't really answer. No idea what building it could even be, but they were excited about it.

Could the Roll In/Roll Out (RIRO?) building be the Four Season (Landscape Company)?
The New Berkman 3? (or whatever it will be called)

Quote from: marcuscnelson on April 30, 2021, 10:19:02 PM
Essentially to build a full autonomous vehicle network in a "dense" urban setting. I mentioned streetcars early on and the VP kept having little zings about how "can't do that with a streetcar" for things like rolling into a lobby or changing course to respond to floods (not sure how that works if you don't put the required sensors on every street) or the platooning thing.

They mentioned the flood sensor thing. I didn't even bother with that because it sounds like a waste of money. If Bay Street is on the verge of flooding, we don't need sensors to tell us that.  For Bay to flood, we're looking at a major storm like a hurricane. No transit will be operating for those sensors to make sense paying for in a real life urban environment.

QuoteThe pamphlet they gave me still shows the "Autonomous Avenue" conversion starting soon after Bay Street, the Remaining Skyway Conversion two years after the start of Bay Street construction and Neighborhood Expansion two years after that.

I'm highly skeptical and those aren't the dates in the technical documents hosted on their website. At this point, I don't believe Bay has even been designed. Whenever it is, it will have to go through DDRB and the same review protocols as every other downtown development.

QuoteI forgot to mention, they're making a big deal out of the Mayo Clinic thing using the Navya shuttle, heralding it as Level 4 operation. I kept saying that come on, Mayo Clinic's road isn't the same as Bay Street, but they insisted that Mayo is at times busier than Bay. So, I don't know.

That's just ridiculous. Mayo is a parking lot and they weren't running that passenger-less shuttle in mixed traffic at posted speed limits higher than the shuttle goes. The more and more I hear, the crazier this sounds.

QuoteI brought up the TOD thing, their response was the whole "AV in lobby" thing from the mysterious company and saying that the flexibility was a good thing because it's not like they'd stop serving the existing routes just because they've redirected for a special event or football game. Seeing as there are only a limited number of shuttles, not sure how that works. One thing I'm realizing I never got a chance to point out was that they made a big deal of how buses can be anywhere from $400k for a regular diesel bus to $900k for an electric bus, but if I remember correctly these vehicles are supposed to be in the $400-600k range.

And they'd need a ton of these things. There's a reason this is now higher in capital cost than traditional forms of fixed transit that move thousands of more people. Also, I believe we all know by now that "flexibility" does not stimulate TOD. No developer is interested on investing millions on a true TOD project where the transit can pick up and move.

QuoteAnd another thing, at one point they put me on the van, and I brought up what's been said here about how little money is going to Amtrak, and they were very insistent that JTA was the only one doing anything about rail at all, and how the JRTC was right next to and "connected" to the old terminal, and a whole thing about how expensive trains are. That conversation didn't go anywhere.

You can buy lots of trains and/or buses for $423 million. Any comparisons of expensive have gone out the door when we're talking about hundreds of millions in local money being needed for an investment of something unproven.

QuoteAgain, pretty sure it was just a random example of a popular destination, because they were also claiming that Bay Street's actual average speed is low enough that something more akin to the existing AVs with a max of ~20mph are enough to keep up, and that buses only travel around 12mph in that area anyway.

Buses blow through those lights on Bay, Forsyth and Adams now. They move through them at a much faster speed than the 15mph max e-scooters do. To get a 12mph average, one would have to get stopped by a light at every block. Anyone who is downtown on a consistent basis knows that this is not the case.

QuoteWe were in the Olli then, and they did a little demonstration of the torque of the electric motors, and how the Olli can actually travel 50-60mph but is just governed to 20mph. I asked whether it could do anything like that autonomously, and they said no.

Basically validating that much of this is out of their control. Also, I'm not aware of anything on a public street in the US doing anywhere close to 20mph. More like 8 to 12mph due to safety reasons.

QuoteThey said was that we couldn't do that with a streetcar. I think they mentioned being able to have vehicles follow one vehicle, but I'm not sure. They talked about a hypothetical of sending 5 car trains with 1 operator to move 100 people each after games and special events, but they didn't demonstrate that capability. I had no idea the elevator thing was actually happening, so I never brought it up.

You could run a streetcar at grade and not even fool with screwing with the Skyway. There's no design at this point. How to get down to ground level is something they still need to figure out. Instead of sending a hypothetical 5 AV shuttle buses to move 100 people, it would be more efficient to move mass crowds in buses that can drive faster than 12mph and not have to take turns doing up and down elevators. I could promote the benefits of what they'd like to do better than they can. Some of these responses sound outright silly from an engineering perspective.

QuoteAs I said, lot of talk about how Miami & Detroit did their thing, a bit of deflection about how they'd just been hired to make it happen and that the decision for AVs was made before they got there, and some sour grapes about "well, if they want to kick us out, their loss."

Jacksonville would be fine. I'm not sure anyone would realize the loss.

QuoteThe thing I'm struggling with is seeing a pathway to make changes without blowing up the tax entirely, especially seeing as most of council is more concerned about the tax itself than about what it would fund. Apparently one of them spoke to Cumber, and ultimately her opposition came down to it being a regressive tax rather than anything about the system.

I sent Cumber an email yesterday. I hope she reads it. But yes, that's the challenge. Most on the council don't have the technical background or time to dive into this. They tend to fall on extreme sides of either being for raising taxes or against them. Without the people making a big fuss to get some council members on the fence to make some concessions with the project list, Jax will be screwed.

QuoteThey seem to genuinely believe that they do have control over it. They were showing off the receivers that go up on poles and opening up the signal cabinets and talking about how they were deciding what system for vehicle communication would be the best to put in the cabinets.

They do but they don't. They still can't provide logical answers to logical questions that are outside of their control. However, none of this logical stuff may even matter to council as a whole.

QuoteI'm not sure I was clear. They parked the AVs inside the building for the day and said they literally expect them to have a stop inside the building. Like, roll in, let in or out people, and then roll out. I asked kinda sarcastically whether they were going to have doors as large as the big slide-up door at Armsdale but they didn't really answer. No idea what building it could even be, but they were excited about it.

So they parked a car inside of garage? Very transformational!

Quote from: Charles Hunter on April 30, 2021, 11:05:38 PM
Could the Roll In/Roll Out (RIRO?) building be the Four Season (Landscape Company)?
The New Berkman 3? (or whatever it will be called)

Or maybe a ....  [drumroll] ....  A Game Changer Fudd Ruckers!

I must say, some of these comments are out of touch with what people are saying in the community and on the street. Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Nashville left Jax in the dust back when Hazouri was mayor. That ship sailed long before Y2K was a thing and the U2C is more likely going to make us a model for our peer communities of how to blow a half billion dollars in public money. As far as downtown goes, focus on getting the basics right. No more expensive and unproven gimmicks please.

QuoteCouncil member Randy DeFoor agreed it's a question of what's needed. She said residents don't feel that's the case regarding the JTA plan for replacing the current 2.5 mile downtown Skyway system with a 10-mile network.

The proposed conversion, which JTA calls the Ultimate Urban Circulator, would use rubber-tired autonomous vehicles to take passengers on the expanded system. JTA would use $379 million in gas tax revenue, or 40 percent of the total cost of the projects on the list, for conversion to the U2C.

"People think of the autonomous vehicles as a want, not a need," DeFoor said. "That's one of the problems we're up against, and we're also up against the trust issue."

The proposed extensions would go through Springfield to the UF Health medical campus, to TIAA Bank Stadium and the sports complex, to the Brooklyn and Riverside neighborhoods, and to San Marco.

City Council President Tommy Hazouri and council member Ju'Coby Pittman said the U2C and the other projects on the list would help Jacksonville stand out as a city on the move.

Hazouri said cities like Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Nashville "have left us behind and that should not happen."

"We have an opportunity to become a model for other cities that are our size," Pittman said.

Curry called the U2C an "innovative vision for transforming a dated transit system into a system of the future that will be critical for a vibrant, revitalized and much better connected downtown."

City Council member Joyce Morgan said that at a recent town hall meeting, she "didn't have total pushback" about raising the gas tax. "I just had pushback from how we make this work with the U2C," she said.

Council member Terrance Freeman said that while a gas tax is more acceptable than a property tax increase, he hasn't found that people "agree with a tax at all."

"People have asked a lot of questions and my gut tells me that if it went to them (in a referendum), this wouldn't be a very favorable vote," he said.

Full article: https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2021/04/30/council-tees-up-question-jacksonville-gas-tax-increase/7398922002/

Quote from: marcuscnelson on April 30, 2021, 08:53:48 PM
Of course I pointed out the cost issue; now they're claiming that the FTA has informed them that demolishing the Skyway would require payback of all $183 million with interest.

This galls me.  It doesn't even make sense.  Importantly, JTA has changed the payback number so many times its not funny.  Is it $45 million?  $183 million?  This is part of the reason they lack credibility when discussing anything involving the dollar sign.  Why don't they show us the contract with the Feds and we will figure it out for ourselves since its a moving target with them.  Expect the costs estimates for this project to swing just as wildly over time given their lack of aptitude for communicating costs.

QuoteApparently some unnamed company coming to Jacksonville is going to have a U2C stop inside their lobby. Not sure how that's going to work with wet tires but they kept bringing it up.

LOL.  Any electric vehicle can run indoors usually.  It's certainly not an impressive feature given that Disney has been running an entire monorail train through a lobby for about 50 years already.

(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/9f/05/1f/9f051f7b9da73a9b1cd47c08e01a3bca.jpg)

So with how completely out of hand all this is, and seeing the attitudes where they stand on council and among the public, should they pass the gas tax this month? If the project list won't change, so no funding for Emerald Trail or more funding for the Amtrak station, would it make more sense to off the U2C and hope to fight another day over the gas tax?

I'm struggling to see what the pathway is to resolve this otherwise.

I believe they'll find a way to shift some money to the Emerald Trail. I also believe the Skyway ask will be reduced.

I certainly hope, but if that doesn't happen, should the bill still pass?

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 01, 2021, 11:17:41 PM
I certainly hope, but if that doesn't happen, should the bill still pass?

Ronald Reagan once said, "if I can get 70 or 80 percent of what it is I'm trying to get, yes I'll take that and then continue to try to get the rest in the future." In this case it's 60%, which may be pushing it, but my gut is that we should still do it and fight the Skyway spending down the line.

Quote from: Tacachale on May 02, 2021, 12:07:15 AM

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 01, 2021, 11:17:41 PM
I certainly hope, but if that doesn't happen, should the bill still pass?

Ronald Reagan once said, "if I can get 70 or 80 percent of what it is I'm trying to get, yes I'll take that and then continue to try to get the rest in the future." In this case it's 60%, which may be pushing it, but my gut is that we should still do it and fight the Skyway spending down the line.

If it loses, how soon can they try again? I know in my state certain referendum defeats require a 4 year period before a new vote can take place.
If there is not a 4 year or longer requirement, then I would vote No. They know if they change the list they will get a positive vote on the second try (unless the first vote was a landslide loss).  I say that because the gas tax will be maxed out and the Hotel and Sales Taxes are already maxed out IIRC.

You would never get a property tax increase of this size passed, so that leaves no future options that I see, particularly in a state as conservative as FL.

JTA Announces Installation of Gondola System From Sports District to Riverside

JTA will install an 8 passenger gondola system from Intuition Ale in the Sports District to the Cummer Museum in Riverside, with a mid station located at Bay and Jefferson. This will allow connection to the SkyWay at the Jefferson Station. This 2.3 long system will be similar to the recently announced (April 12, 2021) California Express Gondola to connect Squaw Valley with Alpine Meadows ski areas. That 2.2 mile, $66 million system over mountainous terrain will be designed, manufactured and installation commenced this summer. As the Jacksonville system will be similar in length and capacity to the California Express, design and engineering will be shorter and less expensive. Although a timeline is not complete for the CA system, it is anticipated that the JAX gondola can be completed in late 2023.

The JAX EXPRESS, as it will be called, will have the same capacity as the CA EXPRESS of 1400 passengers per hour each direction with a car departing every  25 seconds. The design will allow for adding cars to the system during busy times for a 2800 passengers per hour. Total transit time is estimated to be 16 mins.

JTA also said as part of this system they will upgrade the SkyWay and extend it to both UF Health and San Marco using the elevated configuration. Further a long term study for light rail north to the airport and south to SJTC area will be started. These lines will feed the SkyWay system at UF Health and San Marco.

The JAX EXPRESS/SKYWAY System is/will:

1. Use known technology that can be designed, engineered and installed today. No trial needed, so timeline is compressed.
2. Provide TOD opportunities at UF Health, Southside/San Marco, Riverside and Sports District.
3. Provide Jax with a true tourist attraction.
4. Costs are estimated to be a reasonable $25-30 million per mile.

Further details to be announced soon.


UPDATE: More Details From Squaw Valley Alpine Meadows, CA on the Gondola That Will Create North America's 3rd Largest Resort
SnowBrains | April 13, 2021 | Industry NewsIndustry News


The Base-to-Base Gondola.
Alterra Mountain Company yesterday (4/12/21) confirmed that the long-anticipated Squaw Valley to Alpine Meadows gondola would go ahead this summer. Connecting the two resorts will create the third-largest ski resort in North America and the second in the US (depending on how you work it out), behind Whistler Blackcomb, BC, and Park City, UT.

There has been talk of a gondola connecting the two bases ever since the two resorts, Squaw Valley and Alpine Meadows, merged in 2012. A blog post on the Squaw Alpine website offers more details on this $66-million project:

Squaw Valley Alpine Meadows is preparing for the construction of the base-to-base gondola connecting the two areas. This is a tremendously complex project, with four terminals spanning two ski areas, and our team will continue to work closely with Leitner-Poma on the planning and construction.

What Is the Hourly Capacity of the Gondola?

The gondola will have the capacity to transport 1,400 people per hour in 8-passenger cabins.

How Long Will It Take to Get Between the Two Mountains on the Gondola?

The gondola ride is anticipated to take 16 minutes.

"Under Alternative 4, the lift would still be configured as an eight-passenger gondola and would have a design capacity of approximately 1,400 persons per hour in each direction. Operational characteristics would be as described for Alternative 2. In total, the lift would be roughly 11,700 feet in length (based on plan length), of which approximately 2,300 feet (20 percent) would be sited on NFS lands, including the Alpine Meadows base terminal. A total of 33 towers would be installed along the gondola alignment under Alternative 4, with 28 on private land and five on NFS lands."

Quote from: vicupstate on May 02, 2021, 10:02:25 AM

Quote from: Tacachale on May 02, 2021, 12:07:15 AM

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 01, 2021, 11:17:41 PM
I certainly hope, but if that doesn't happen, should the bill still pass?

Ronald Reagan once said, "if I can get 70 or 80 percent of what it is I'm trying to get, yes I'll take that and then continue to try to get the rest in the future." In this case it's 60%, which may be pushing it, but my gut is that we should still do it and fight the Skyway spending down the line.

If it loses, how soon can they try again? I know in my state certain referendum defeats require a 4 year period before a new vote can take place.
If there is not a 4 year or longer requirement, then I would vote No. They know if they change the list they will get a positive vote on the second try (unless the first vote was a landslide loss).  I say that because the gas tax will be maxed out and the Hotel and Sales Taxes are already maxed out IIRC.

You would never get a property tax increase of this size passed, so that leaves no future options that I see, particularly in a state as conservative as FL.

The thing I worry about is seeing how much of the opposition to the tax is about the tax itself rather than about the projects on it, if this vote fails we might end up stuck because the prevailing assumption will be that people don't want a new tax rather than that people didn't want the tax to fully fund U2C.

Quote from: jaxjags on May 02, 2021, 12:47:53 PM
JTA Announces Installation of Gondola System From Sports District to Riverside

JTA will install an 8 passenger gondola system from Intuition Ale in the Sports District to the Cummer Museum in Riverside, with a mid station located at Bay and Jefferson. This will allow connection to the SkyWay at the Jefferson Station. This 2.3 long system will be similar to the recently announced (April 12, 2021) California Express Gondola to connect Squaw Valley with Alpine Meadows ski areas. That 2.2 mile, $66 million system over mountainous terrain will be designed, manufactured and installation commenced this summer. As the Jacksonville system will be similar in length and capacity to the California Express, design and engineering will be shorter and less expensive. Although a timeline is not complete for the CA system, it is anticipated that the JAX gondola can be completed in late 2023.

The JAX EXPRESS, as it will be called, will have the same capacity as the CA EXPRESS of 1400 passengers per hour each direction with a car departing every  25 seconds. The design will allow for adding cars to the system during busy times for a 2800 passengers per hour. Total transit time is estimated to be 16 mins.

JTA also said as part of this system they will upgrade the SkyWay and extend it to both UF Health and San Marco using the elevated configuration. Further a long term study for light rail north to the airport and south to SJTC area will be started. These lines will feed the SkyWay system at UF Health and San Marco.

The JAX EXPRESS/SKYWAY System is/will:

1. Use known technology that can be designed, engineered and installed today. No trial needed, so timeline is compressed.
2. Provide TOD opportunities at UF Health, Southside/San Marco, Riverside and Sports District.
3. Provide Jax with a true tourist attraction.
4. Costs are estimated to be a reasonable $25-30 million per mile.

Further details to be announced soon.

Very funny.

^ The "joke" plan looks better than the "real" one.  Unfortunately, the "joke" is on the taxpayers if JTA goes ahead with its "real" plan and it will cost some $400 million for the "laughs."  The question then is who will have the last "laugh"?

Interesting the LOGT includes nearly $400 million for the U2C. Then there is another bunch of money for the Bay Street Corridor.  The North Florida Transportation Planning Organization's (NFTPO) Long Range Transportation Plan for 2045 was adopted in November 2019.  According to Federal transportation rules, it is supposed to include all transportation capacity projects to be built by the horizon year - 2045 in this case - and be "fiscally constrained."  That means the NFTPO must make reasonable projections of anticipated revenues, and of anticipated project costs, and when developing the list of projects that will be in the adopted plan, the ledger must balance.  The adopted 2045 LRTP includes three U2C projects to be built in the 2026-2030 period: to Brooklyn/Five Points, to San Marco, and to Springfield, each costing $52.8 million - or $158.4 million in total.  Less than half the LOGT line item.

Apparently, JTA is looking to totally fund the U2C from LOGT dollars. But the Federal rules apply to any project needing Federal funds OR federal environmental approvals.  Clearly, the LRTP will have to be amended to accommodate the changes to the U2C, and more generally for the new revenue from the LOGT.

The Draft Transportation Improvement Program (TIP), the five-year implementation plan, includes $25.5 million in FY21/22 for the "Bay Street Innovation Corridor"

Link to LRTP section of the NFTPO website - http://northfloridatpo.com/planning/lrtp

and to the TIP section - http://northfloridatpo.com/planning/tip

They should seriously cut about $200 million out of the LOGT request for the U2C. That would a ton of money that could go to implement many of the bus system improvements throughout NW Jax and other areas of the city that the LRTP says won't be addressed until 2036 - 2045. Doing so still allows JTA the opportunity to play with it's U2C toy.

Quote from: thelakelander on May 05, 2021, 06:27:53 PM
They should seriously cut about $200 million out of the LOGT request for the U2C. That would a ton of money that could go to implement many of the bus system improvements throughout NW Jax and other areas of the city that the LRTP says won't be addressed until 2036 - 2045. Doing so still allows JTA the opportunity to play with it's U2C toy.

That screams taking a look at the "Skyway Conversion to U2C - Capital":

QuoteIncludes the rehabilitation of the Skyway infrastructure, systems and IT network and expansion of services to support the transition to autonomous vehicles.

Giving up on the infrastructure conversion (at least with gas tax funds) and either cutting it down to just the "systems and IT network" or removing that line item entirely would open up to $240 million for any of the stuff you mention and the Emerald Trail and anything else we can think of. The challenge seems to be that no one on Council wants to talk about the project list for some reason, instead squabbling about whether to pass the gas tax at all.

Quote from: Charles Hunter on May 05, 2021, 04:52:06 PM
The adopted 2045 LRTP includes three U2C projects to be built in the 2026-2030 period: to Brooklyn/Five Points, to San Marco, and to Springfield, each costing $52.8 million - or $158.4 million in total.  Less than half the LOGT line item.

The Draft Transportation Improvement Program (TIP), the five-year implementation plan, includes $25.5 million in FY21/22 for the "Bay Street Innovation Corridor"

I'm pretty sure the LRTP only includes the "Skyway Conversion to U2C - Neighborhood Extensions" part of the LOGT:

QuoteDowntown service expansion of Skyway providing neighborhood Circulators through use of autonomous vehicle network to five key areas:
West Corridor ‐ access to the Riverside and Five Points neighborhoods, as well as the popular Riverside Arts Market and growing Brooklyn neighborhood;
East Corridor ‐ extending eastward along Bay Street, these stations will annex the burgeoning Shipyards district and the popular Sports Complex with the downtown core;
North Corridor ‐ serving the revitalizing historic Springfield area, UF Health Center and VA Outpatient Clinic, the North Corridor would provide more access to integral health‐related resources and services;
South/Medical Complex Corridor ‐ Historic San Marco, which has long been a destination for those seeking a live/work/play location; and
Southbank Corridor ‐ the Southbank Corridor which has some of the greatest growth potential and expanded service will meet the transportation needs of future employees, residents and visitors.

That's listed on the LOGT as $131,890,000, but honestly I don't buy that at all. Especially given that the "East Corridor" is supposed to be the Bay Street Innovation Corridor, so it shouldn't be on that list anyway.

Uber just came out with earnings and appeared to be thrilled to be out of the AV business.  This is in addition to Lyft doing the same as reported in my prior post reposted here for convenience.  These companies obviously invested hundreds of millions and billions to try and figure out AV and gave up.  But JTA is going to do it for tens of millions after subtracting hard costs from the $379 to 400+ million?  Really?

QuoteUber losses dramatically improve thanks to sale of self-driving unit

...Overall, Uber's net loss was $108 million, a tremendous improvement from a $968 million loss in its fourth quarter of 2020. But that was largely due to a $1.6 billion gain from the sale of its self-driving unit, ATG....

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/05/uber-q1-2021-earnings.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/05/uber-q1-2021-earnings.html)

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on April 26, 2021, 07:37:11 PM
Lyft giving up on perfecting AV technology.  Selling out to Toyota.  Quotes indicate we have a long way to go to full AV's.  But, maybe JTA knows something the rest of the world doesn't. ;D

A few quotes:

QuoteLyft is the latest company to abandon the expensive development of AVs

Lyft is selling its autonomous vehicle division to a subsidiary of Toyota — the latest in a series of acquisitions that is seeing the world of self-driving cars grow increasingly smaller...

...The deal, which is expected to close in the third quarter of 2021, brings to an end Lyft's four-year journey toward developing and deploying its own self-driving cars. The company follows its rival Uber in off-loading its costly autonomous vehicle division in a bid to stop losing so much money...

...Lyft launched its Level 5 division in 2017 with the bold claim that by 2021, "a majority" of its rides would take place in autonomous vehicles. The company hired hundreds of engineers to staff a 50,000-square-foot facility in Palo Alto, California. A year later, Lyft acquired the UK-based augmented reality startup Blue Vision Labs for a reported $72 million in the hopes of accelerating its efforts.

But the prediction that most of Lyft's rides would take place in AVs never came to pass. In fact, despite some technical successes, autonomous vehicles remain very far away from any kind of mass adoption. Most AVs on the road today are still test vehicles, with most of the major players refusing to commit to a timeline for commercialization...

...Last year, Toyota broke ground on its "Woven City," the 175-acre site of a former car factory in Japan. The automaker hopes to transform it into a "prototype city of the future" where it can test autonomous vehicles, innovative street design, smart home technology, robotics, and new mobility products on a population of real people who would live there full time.

https://www.theverge.com/2021/4/26/22404406/toyota-lyft-autonomous-vehicle-acquisition-amount-deal (https://www.theverge.com/2021/4/26/22404406/toyota-lyft-autonomous-vehicle-acquisition-amount-deal)