Metro Jacksonville

Community => Business => Topic started by: Bill Hoff on October 25, 2019, 09:15:37 PM

Title: Publix closing
Post by: Bill Hoff on October 25, 2019, 09:15:37 PM
at Gateway Mall before the end of the year.

Does that make a new food desert?

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/article/publix-closing-gateway-town-center-supermarket
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: thelakelander on October 25, 2019, 09:42:55 PM
Bummer but would Harvey's and Sav a Lot count? As for Gateway, it's time for another makeover. It's been 20 years since the effort to bring in Publix and other retailers took place.
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: Jrolive on October 26, 2019, 12:56:54 AM
I live in the area and the harveys and sav a lot may as well be closed as well no real good options for anything glad i have transportation dunn ave and every other side of town here i come!
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: I-10east on October 26, 2019, 01:17:24 AM
Wow! I didn't see that one coming. Gateway is on its last legs.
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: Kiva on October 26, 2019, 07:57:36 AM
Quote from: Bill Hoff on October 25, 2019, 09:15:37 PM
at Gateway Mall before the end of the year.

Does that make a new food desert?

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/article/publix-closing-gateway-town-center-supermarket
Is the store for lease at Hubbard and 8th St. in Springfield too small for a Publix?
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: thelakelander on October 26, 2019, 08:53:15 AM
They aren't interested in that spot. Maybe it's time to look at options that are not as traditional. What Baldwin is doing right now with a community owned store is something to keep an eye on.
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: Tacachale on October 26, 2019, 09:10:03 AM
Quote from: thelakelander on October 26, 2019, 08:53:15 AM
They aren't interested in that spot. Maybe it's time to look at options that are not as traditional. What Baldwin is doing right now with a community owned store is something to keep an eye on.
+1
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: JaxAvondale on October 26, 2019, 10:06:50 AM
The city has to get creative about how to offer quality goods to this area.
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: JaGoaT on October 26, 2019, 10:19:25 AM
That Publix is always packed when I go in there
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: vicupstate on October 26, 2019, 10:44:25 AM
Expecting JAX to do something creative to get a grocer on the North side is pure fantasy. Curry might agree to tearing Gateway down though.
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: MusicMan on October 26, 2019, 03:07:56 PM
ALDI?
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: I-10east on October 27, 2019, 02:40:03 AM
Rowes is rumored to fill up the old Harveys spot at Edgewood & Commonwealth.
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: I-10east on October 27, 2019, 03:02:22 AM
I heard from FB that a truck driver at Coke Cola said that the Family Dollar next door have been reporting alot of losses due to larceny. Now put two plus two together, and it definitely wouldn't be a stretch to say that Gateway's Publix likely is effected also. Many people always feel uncomfortable (esp with today's BS PC age) to tell it like it is. We all have to weasel around with our words and pander.

Like I said on the mall thread, larceny or violent crime isn't a businesses friend. That Publix did not have problems with patronship (as many know). It can only be one thing. People feel bad because Publix is in a minority area, and it will close. It's nothing personal, but all business. Publix isn't in it to be social justice heroes, it's all about the bottom line.
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: Adam White on October 27, 2019, 05:59:47 AM
Quote from: I-10east on October 27, 2019, 03:02:22 AM
I heard from FB that a truck driver at Coke Cola said that the Family Dollar next door have been reporting alot of losses due to larceny. Now put two plus two together, and it definitely wouldn't be a stretch to say that Gateway's Publix likely is effected also. Many people always feel uncomfortable (esp with today's BS PC age) to tell it like it is. We all have to weasel around with our words and pander.

Like I said on the mall thread, larceny or violent crime isn't a businesses friend. That Publix did not problems with patronship (as many know). It can only be one thing. People feel bad because Publix is in a minority area, and it will close. It's nothing personal, but all business. Publix isn't in it to be social justice heroes, it's all about the bottom line.

It would take a lot of larceny to force a very successful Publix location to close, methinks. It's not like thieves are stealing lots and lots of expensive items.

I'd assume it's more likely that the lease is up and the cost for a new lease has been deemed to be too expensive, given that there are two other stores within 5-6 miles. But who knows.
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: JeffreyS on October 28, 2019, 08:42:50 AM
Quote from: JaGoaT on October 26, 2019, 10:19:25 AM
That Publix is always packed when I go in there

I don't live in that area so I don't have a great feel for this but when I have been in that store it was busy.
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: thelakelander on October 28, 2019, 10:21:33 AM
QuoteHe said there are two locations near the Gateway store. One is 6 miles north at 1840 Dunn Ave. and another is 5 miles south at 2033 Riverside Ave.

Publix operates 56 stores in the Northeast Florida market, Stevens said previously.

The two closest grocery stores appear to be Harveys Supermarket about a mile east at 201 W 48th St. and Save A Lot about 1.2 miles east at 5751 N. Main St.

The urban core (pre-consolidated city) declined 50% in population between 1950 and 2010. I suspect it's still in decline and has been in continuous decline in the 20 years Publix has operated at Gateway. Perhaps, they're looking at the downward trend and deciding its best not to re-up to keep three stores for a declining population that may not be able to support all three of them through the end of a lease extension? Clearly, the other two are in more stable areas, so when comparing the three, its easy to figure which one gets the short end of the stick. IMO, the focus should be less on Publix and more on the city to actually live up to the economic promises that have been made to this area of town for decades.
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: Snaketoz on October 28, 2019, 07:31:41 PM
A lot of you may not be aware, but this will be the second time Gateway has/will lose a Publix supermarket.  My brother worked at the old Gateway Publix back in the early 60s.  Believe it or not, it closed then because Winn-Dixie had the rights to S&H green stamps and they were so popular back in those days that Publix couldn't compete with W-D in Jacksonville!  Hate to see the area lose the store.  I grew up nearby.  In those days I thought Gateway was the greatest place ever.
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: jaxlongtimer on October 28, 2019, 10:49:43 PM
Would be interesting to know if any JTA buses stop by Gateway and what the schedules are.  Many people need mass transit to get around in these areas and I am betting that's not so easy to rely on.  If you were to take a bus to Publix or any other grocery store, purchase cold items, etc. and have to wait for 1 plus hours to get a bus to your neighborhood and then walk a few more blocks or better, I would think that would be pretty discouraging, especially on warm days.  Can't imagine buying ice cream this way  8)?

Curious, did that Publix offer home delivery like many others do now?
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: Ken_FSU on October 28, 2019, 11:01:43 PM
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on October 28, 2019, 10:49:43 PM
Would be interesting to know if any JTA buses stop by Gateway and what the schedules are.

Gateway is a major stop on the First Coast Flyer's Green Line.

Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: jaxlongtimer on October 28, 2019, 11:23:27 PM
Quote from: Ken_FSU on October 28, 2019, 11:01:43 PM
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on October 28, 2019, 10:49:43 PM
Would be interesting to know if any JTA buses stop by Gateway and what the schedules are.

Gateway is a major stop on the First Coast Flyer's Green Line.

Thanks and noted.

While the Flyers may be a good starting point, they are more or less straight lines from Downtown to I-295 and beyond.  If you don't live within walking distance of this spoke, you still have a transportation issue.  Based on JTA's own map (https://fcf.jtafla.com/phases/#green-line-north-corridor-route-102 (https://fcf.jtafla.com/phases/#green-line-north-corridor-route-102)), it would appear that the singular Flyer Green Line is only feasible for a very small segment of the north by northwest quadrant residents.

Seems it would be helpful if the Flyer spokes were complimented by similar frequent levels of service on numerous connecting routes that go laterally and deep into surrounding neighborhoods.  What is considered an appropriate walking distance to a bus stop?
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: thelakelander on October 28, 2019, 11:45:58 PM
Quote from: Ken_FSU on October 28, 2019, 11:01:43 PM
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on October 28, 2019, 10:49:43 PM
Would be interesting to know if any JTA buses stop by Gateway and what the schedules are.

Gateway is a major stop on the First Coast Flyer's Green Line.

There's two Save A Lots and a Walmart Supercenter on the same BRT line. Hard to blame Publix. Their primary reason for being in business isn't charity. If Jax really wants to resolve economic issues and decline facing this area of town, it's going to have to seriously put its money where its mouth has been with the unmet promises made since consolidation. No recruitment of a single chain is going to put a serious or long term dent in the problem.
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: thelakelander on October 28, 2019, 11:48:02 PM
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on October 28, 2019, 11:23:27 PM
What is considered an appropriate walking distance to a bus stop?

1/4 mile or five minute walk radius. But transit isn't going to work with low density. The key (and it won't happen overnight) is to allow and flood as much density as possible within walking distance of high frequency transit spines. The transformation of Northern Virginia along the Orange Line and Dadeland on Miami's Metrorail are two good late 20th century examples of this.
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: Charles Hunter on October 29, 2019, 08:39:35 AM
According to the JTA System Map, three regular routes also serve the Gateway Center transfer point:
12 - which serves the area between Edgewood and Trout River, and the Myrtle Ave corridor
21 - which serves UF Health (Shands) on 8th, Main Street and northern Springfield
51 - a cross-town route that mostly follows Edgewood and Cassat and serves the FSCJ Kent Campus transfer point

https://www.jtafla.com/schedules/
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: thelakelander on October 29, 2019, 09:02:49 AM
Grocery stores served by routes 12, 21 and 51:

12 - Sav-a-lot at Lem Turner & Edgewood
21 - Generally parallels the First Coast Flyer Green Line
51 - Harveys and Sav-a-lot at 48th & Main, Sav-a-lot at Lem Turner & Edgewood, Harvey's at Avenue B, Sav-a-lot on Edgewood, Proposed Rowe's at Commonwealth and Edgewood, Sav-a-lot at Edgewood and Broadway.

Question: Is Sav-a-lot considered to be a full service grocery store?

Thought: There are tons of local corner markets throughout the urban core. What would it take to assist a portion of these types of places to expand their offerings?
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: KenFSU on October 29, 2019, 10:37:55 AM
https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/article/city-officials-want-publix-at-gateway-town-center-to-stay-open
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: vicupstate on October 29, 2019, 02:11:37 PM

QuoteAccording to Gaffney, rent for Publix at Gateway has remained stable at approximately $19,000 per month, including taxes and fees, for more than a decade. Gaffney said the lease includes a renewal option to keep the rent unchanged, and Gator Investments would extend the rate for 10 years.

Well rising rent isn't the issue.
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: bl8jaxnative on October 29, 2019, 02:17:20 PM
Grocery's a low margin business.   For a lot of grocery's they break-even or even lose money on produce.  They have to make up for it on other areas.

If you want to understand why a Publix is closing at Gateway:

a) Determine the catchment area that Publix uses
b) Look at the number of households in that catchment area
c) Look at the household incomes in that catchment area

Publix problem in that area is that doens't have enough households to throw $ at enough of the high margin to make a go of that store.   Not with the underlying costs that they have.   

The population declines in the area don't help.  But the real driver is the severe drop in household incomes.
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: vicupstate on October 29, 2019, 02:25:53 PM
Volume can make up for low margins too.   

Has the population and income changed that much in the 20 years since it opened? It was a struggling area in 2000 too.
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: thelakelander on October 29, 2019, 02:33:34 PM
Population is still in rust belt like decline. It was down to 50% of its 1950 population in the 2010 census. We'll know the real numbers next year but there's nothing visual indicating that the surrounding neighborhoods are growing again.
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: vicupstate on October 29, 2019, 03:59:15 PM
It may be that the households use to largely house families, but now largely house empty nest couples or elderly singles. 
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: jaxlongtimer on October 29, 2019, 07:18:52 PM
Quote from: bl8jaxnative on October 29, 2019, 02:17:20 PM
Grocery's a low margin business.   For a lot of grocery's they break-even or even lose money on produce.  They have to make up for it on other areas.

If you want to understand why a Publix is closing at Gateway:

a) Determine the catchment area that Publix uses
b) Look at the number of households in that catchment area
c) Look at the household incomes in that catchment area

Publix problem in that area is that doens't have enough households to throw $ at enough of the high margin to make a go of that store.   Not with the underlying costs that they have.   

The population declines in the area don't help.  But the real driver is the severe drop in household incomes.

Agree.  Publix and any other grocer is in business to make money.  Either this store is losing money or its not giving off enough return to justify the invested resources it takes to keep it operating.

The rent already seems relatively low so subsidizing that likely won't make much difference.

Given Publix operates profitably over 1,000 stores, the only apparent difference makers remaining are lack of sales dollars and/or extraordinary shrinkage.  I won't speculate on how to solve the shrinkage issue if it even exists, but to gain more sales dollars either more customers need to shop there and/or the ones they have need to spend more.  I don't see one idea the City has to fix either one of those issues successfully and sustainably.  Store subsidies don't drive sales and thus don't sustain any store that gets them over time.  They only serve to delay the inevitable.

By the way, I note that a $750,000 subsidy equates to about the same amount of dollars Publix is currently spending per store just to keep them "updated" every few years so, further to my point, this is more evidence that subsidies won't go far.

For now, if Publix changes course on this store, it would most likely be only for the optics and I would expect this issue will arise again on the very next lease renewal if nothing else changes.
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: thelakelander on October 29, 2019, 08:44:42 PM
I'd be surprised if Publix cares about optics in Jax. It's a Fortune 500 company. It's closed stores in areas like Gateway in cities all over the Southeast for decades. When the numbers don't make sense, they don't make sense. If they'll do it in comparable Miami, Tampa and Orlando neighborhoods, they'll do so here.
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: thelakelander on October 31, 2019, 06:04:10 PM
Rowe's has signed a letter of intent to take over the Publix space at Gateway:

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/article/rowes-wants-to-take-over-publix-space-at-gateway-town-center
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: marcuscnelson on October 31, 2019, 11:05:17 PM
Wow, feels like Rowe's is really starting to expand lately.
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: MusicMan on February 26, 2020, 03:40:38 PM
Just noticed that the old Quality Foods Grocery at 27 East 7th Street in Springfiled is under contract....anybody know what's going in there?
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: I-10east on February 27, 2020, 07:09:45 PM
An Aldi would be great at that spot.
Title: Re: Publix closing
Post by: MusicMan on February 27, 2020, 08:40:45 PM
YES. But there must be a plan in place, imagine Bill Hoff knows.