https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-2018-world-cup-favorites-sleepers-and-most-pivotal-games/
QuoteJUN. 14, 2018, AT 6:30 AM
The 2018 World Cup: Favorites, Sleepers And Most Pivotal Games
By Neil Paine
When the 2018 World Cup begins play today, it'll kick off what could be a very good month for the usual suspects of international soccer. Our World Cup probability model, which launched on Wednesday (read more about it here), gives Brazil — the most successful team in World Cup history — the best chance of winning the tournament, at 19 percent. Spain (the winner two World Cups ago1) and Germany (the defending champ) aren't very far behind. And don't forget about the classic contenders France and Argentina, who are also in our model's top seven.
Only eight countries have ever lifted the Cup, so it's not surprising that we are predicting good things for the world's perennial soccer powerhouses. (Well, most of them. Sorry you couldn't make the appointment, Italy and the Netherlands.) But this World Cup could still have its share of surprises, too. Here are the teams our model has as the favorites:
(https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/world-cup-screengrab-e1528970922856.png?w=575)
It's not all historic honchos that have risen to the top of our model. Group G standout Belgium, which has enjoyed a meteoric rise in the worldwide rankings over the past decade, has a 27 percent chance of making the semifinals for just the second time in team history (and the first since 1986). This could very well be the year for fellow Group G side England — which fancies itself a blue blood2 but won its sole World Cup more than 50 years ago — to finally end its drought.
Over in Group B, Portugal has a good chance to avenge the disappointment of 2014 and advance deep into the tournament — provided it can stave off Morocco (and, as always, that Cristiano Ronaldo can carry over his club-team form to the global stage). In Group D, the veteran Croatians are not only a good pick to advance to the knockout stage but maybe even to make some noise once there. And as the front-runners in Group H, James Rodríguez and Colombia may be poised to advance past the quarterfinals for the very first time in national history.
Further down the list, our model sees a few dark-horse candidates to keep tabs on. If healthy, Mohamed Salah and Egypt have a much better knockout-stage probability than their Soccer Power Index would imply, because they were fortunate to draw the historic cupcake that is Group A. (Speaking of which: Uruguay — a two-time World Cup winner, so they might not quite fit the dark-horse image — and the host country, Russia, also have great odds of getting to the round of 16 out of the same group.) In Group H, meanwhile, Poland boasts essentially a coin flip's chance to advance to the knockouts — which would be a first since 1986 — as does Denmark in Group C, Switzerland in Group E and Sweden in Group F.
To get there, though, all of these hopeful sides must win (or at least draw) a series of harrowing matchups within their respective groups. Thanks to our model, we can identify the matches that will likely swing the tournament's odds the most, much like we did for college football's most crucial games last fall. And perhaps surprisingly, no group-stage match will shape the World Cup more than Morocco's duel with Spain on June 25.
Here are the tournament's most important group-stage matches:
1. Spain vs. Morocco, June 25
Weighted total swing* of ± 8.55 percentage points of World Cup championship probability
2. Spain vs. Portugal, June 15
Weighted total swing* of ± 8.33 percentage points of World Cup championship probability
3. Brazil vs. Serbia, June 27
Weighted total swing* of ± 8.11 percentage points of World Cup championship probability
4. Brazil vs. Switzerland, June 17
Weighted total swing* of ± 7.98 percentage points of World Cup championship probability
5. Spain vs. Iran, June 20
Weighted total swing* of ± 6.15 percentage points of World Cup championship probability
6. Germany vs. Mexico, June 17
Weighted total swing* of ± 5.60 percentage points of World Cup championship probability
7. Argentina vs. Croatia, June 21
Weighted total swing* of ± 5.38 percentage points of World Cup championship probability
8. Argentina vs. Nigeria, June 26
Weighted total swing* of ± 5.13 percentage points of World Cup championship probability
9. England vs. Belgium, June 28
Weighted total swing* of ± 5.07 percentage points of World Cup championship probability
10. Germany vs. Sweden, June 23
Weighted total swing* of ± 4.92 percentage points of World Cup championship probability
Because Hakim Ziyech and the talented Moroccans were cruelly slotted into one of the tournament's deadliest groups (Group B), we give them only a 28 percent chance of making the round of 16. But Morocco is strong enough to potentially play spoiler to the group's favorites — Spain and Portugal — which also means that if Morocco wins or draws in the group stage, it could have ripple effects for teams across the tournament.
Aside from the few group-stage clashes between titans, such as Spain-Portugal or England-Belgium, there's a common recipe for the crucial matches listed above: a talented underdog that can't be overlooked by its contending opponent and that has the potential to break the knockout bracket before it's even set. But don't just take my word for it — in our interactive, you can actually tinker with the effect of a given team finishing in a given slot and see how it changes the overall odds.
So with all that said, all that's left is to enjoy the action on the pitch. Check our model for the latest odds and live, in-game match probabilities, and we'll be with you throughout the tournament with updates and analysis.
Still kind of surreal to think the US did not qualify.
I did not get to see most of it but the Spain vs Portugal match lived up to the hype... Portugal ties it up with just minutes to play ending in a draw... 8)
The last goal by Ronaldo was insane.
Managed to catch a bit of the match between dinner and getting the kids ready for bed. Managed to see Ronaldo's third goal - but a bit gutted I didn't watch the whole match. I have a feeling the rest of the weekend's games won't live up to this one :(
Quote from: Adam White on June 15, 2018, 05:37:08 PM
Managed to catch a bit of the match between dinner and getting the kids ready for bed. Managed to see Ronaldo's third goal - but a bit gutted I didn't watch the whole match. I have a feeling the rest of the weekend's games won't live up to this one :(
"gutted" It's been a while since I heard that. Love it!
Iceland is hanging in there against Argentina with 10 minutes to go
Quote from: BridgeTroll on June 16, 2018, 10:39:52 AM
Iceland is hanging in there against Argentina with 10 minutes to go
All done! Almost nothing makes me happier than Argentine tears.
Quote from: Adam White on June 16, 2018, 10:55:22 AM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on June 16, 2018, 10:39:52 AM
Iceland is hanging in there against Argentina with 10 minutes to go
All done! Almost nothing makes me happier than Argentine tears.
It's early yet but how about German tears... ;D
Quote from: BridgeTroll on June 17, 2018, 12:17:14 PM
Quote from: Adam White on June 16, 2018, 10:55:22 AM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on June 16, 2018, 10:39:52 AM
Iceland is hanging in there against Argentina with 10 minutes to go
All done! Almost nothing makes me happier than Argentine tears.
It's early yet but how about German tears... ;D
Down goes Germany! 8)
Quote from: BridgeTroll on June 17, 2018, 12:17:14 PM
Quote from: Adam White on June 16, 2018, 10:55:22 AM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on June 16, 2018, 10:39:52 AM
Iceland is hanging in there against Argentina with 10 minutes to go
All done! Almost nothing makes me happier than Argentine tears.
It's early yet but how about German tears... ;D
Such a great result.
The Swiss get a draw with Brazil... 8)
Great opening games so far. Huge upset by Mexico over Germany. Iceland and Switzerland getting draws with Argentina and Brazil.
Sucks the US is not a part of it, but it's been exciting.
Sweden and South Korea are playing now... looks pretty good...
Most of the opening games have been pretty darn good so far. Highlights were definitely Spain/Portugal, Iceland/Argentina, and Mexico/Germany. I missed Brazil/Switzerland, but I can't believe that was a draw.
As much as I enjoy the US in the Cup, I'm happy I don't have to watch them inevitably disappoint me
Probably not one for the ages, but England's win last night was fairly dramatic. It was no less than they deserved - especially given the rather physical Tunisian defending.
Japanese are taking it to Columbia now... not sure why but Columbia only playing with 10
Quote from: BridgeTroll on June 19, 2018, 08:19:08 AM
Japanese are taking it to Columbia now... not sure why but Columbia only playing with 10
Handball - player (Sanchez) sent off after a couple of minutes, apparently.
Yup, handball in the third minute, stopping a clear goal scoring opp in the box. It was wild
The Portugal - Morocco match is entertaining. 1-0 Portugal on Ronaldo goal. Pretty physical but having a hard time figuring out what a foul is in this one...lol 8)
Telemundo is streaming all the games live, obviously with the titles in Spanish. If you click on "translate" most of the titles are good, but the game clock is shown as "Party Time"! ;D
Morocco had a ton of good looks. Just could not get it in.
Argentina is gonna lose... 8)
Quote from: BridgeTroll on June 21, 2018, 03:45:19 PM
Argentina is gonna lose... 8)
Yes they did. They forgot to bring their A game.
Quote from: Snaketoz on June 21, 2018, 05:38:02 PM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on June 21, 2018, 03:45:19 PM
Argentina is gonna lose... 8)
Yes they did. They forgot to bring their A game.
The goal tender certainly did... ;D
Huge win by Nigeria today, which means the last day of Group D is gonna be fuuuuuunnnnn
Sweden up 1 - 0 against Germany so far!
Germany stays alive... in 95th minute... :o
Quote from: BridgeTroll on June 23, 2018, 03:56:59 PM
Germany stays alive... in 95th minute... :o
He bent it like Beckham!
The US should be embarrassed they finished below Panama.
Quote from: pierre on June 25, 2018, 09:17:00 AM
The US should be embarrassed they finished below Panama.
To be fair, Panama didn't really cause the USA any problems...
Can't believe Germany are eliminated and bottom of Group F. And nice seeing Sonny put the final nail in Ozil's coffin!
I love it! I especially love that South Korea had Germany scrambling like crazy.
Man, Mexico almost blew it. Now they probably get Brazil.
Argentina is gone. Viva la France
Quote from: BridgeTroll on June 30, 2018, 11:55:03 AM
Argentina is gone. Viva la France
Those Argentine tears never tasted better.
I will be rooting for Portugal this afternoon...
Omg... Russia beats Spain...
Quote from: BridgeTroll on July 01, 2018, 12:42:29 PM
Omg... Russia beats Spain...
Amazing. What a great result. I watched the beginning, but it was kind of boring. I managed to switch back for the penalty shootout, though.
I hope Denmark is able to beat Croatia tonight, but I'd be really shocked if they did.
Denmark played well towards the end. Most of the time it was a pretty boring game.
Quote from: Kiva on July 01, 2018, 07:35:35 PM
Denmark played well towards the end. Most of the time it was a pretty boring game.
I've struggled to watch the evening matches because they end up conflicting with my son's bedtime routine. But I managed to turn it on, only to find out I had just missed what would end up being the only goals scored. I ended up watching the last 15 minutes of regulation time and turned it back when it went to penalties. Not really a classic.
Lol... the entire Columbian team needs a yellow card
Wow... Columbia scores at 94 minutes... :o
(https://frinkiac.com/meme/S10E13/324490.jpg?b64lines=IEFORCBUSEFUJ1MgVEhFIEVORCBPRgogVEhBVCBDSEFQVEVSLg==)
Two potentially great matchups today.
Quote from: pierre on July 06, 2018, 08:38:56 AM
Two potentially great matchups today.
Watched most of the first half of Uruguay v France. Missed the goals - but it was a pretty boring match, I thought. The Brazil - Beligum match was far more entertaining. Looking forward to England's game tomorrow afternoon (which will probably be boring - and end in disappointment).
The England game is at 10am from everything I have seen online.
Quote from: opfoodie on July 06, 2018, 07:13:51 PM
The England game is at 10am from everything I have seen online.
That sounds right - we're 5 hours ahead of you.
Man, I'm really hoping for a Belgium / England final. If Russia had advanced I would have been convinced that the fix was in....
Quote from: blizz01 on July 07, 2018, 08:41:37 PM
Man, I'm really hoping for a Belgium / England final. If Russia had advanced I would have been convinced that the fix was in....
I think England's best chance at winning is ending up in the final against Belgium. I'm hoping they beat Croatia, but I don't really see it happening.
Quote from: Adam White on July 08, 2018, 06:04:49 AM
I think England's best chance at winning is ending up in the final against Belgium. I'm hoping they beat Croatia, but I don't really see it happening.
According to at least one website, England are slight favorites to win against Croatia (57% to 43%). https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/matches/?ex_cid=rrpromo (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/matches/?ex_cid=rrpromo)
Quote from: Kiva on July 08, 2018, 09:41:11 AM
Quote from: Adam White on July 08, 2018, 06:04:49 AM
I think England's best chance at winning is ending up in the final against Belgium. I'm hoping they beat Croatia, but I don't really see it happening.
According to at least one website, England are slight favorites to win against Croatia (57% to 43%). https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/matches/?ex_cid=rrpromo (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/matches/?ex_cid=rrpromo)
I'd believe it if they could manage to score from open play. I'm not convinced so far. I hope Southgate makes some changes, but I'd be shocked if he benched Sterling for the next match.
France is gonna win it all. I don't see England *or* Croatia beating them
Quote from: wanderson91 on July 10, 2018, 04:07:56 PM
France is gonna win it all. I don't see England *or* Croatia beating them
To be honest, I haven't been too impressed by France. They're obviously good enough to be in the final, of course. I can see England beating them - but yeah, I can just as easily see England losing to them.
Terrible second half by England! Croatia left everything out there and earned that win. It'll be interesting to see what they have left against France
And the Belgium/England consolation match is either gonna be super boring or a bloodbath
Quote from: wanderson91 on July 11, 2018, 04:44:52 PM
Terrible second half by England! Croatia left everything out there and earned that win. It'll be interesting to see what they have left against France
And the Belgium/England consolation match is either gonna be super boring or a bloodbath
Quite disappointing to say the least. England really missed their opportunity to win that match in the first half. I'm going to be at a wedding on Saturday and will miss the consolation match.
So...no world cup and about half the starting 11 of Spurs are going to be tired or injured when the new PL season starts. Ugh.
Adam, fear not cause the Armada are in the playoffs!!
Quote from: ProjectMaximus on July 11, 2018, 08:50:33 PM
Adam, fear not cause the Armada are in the playoffs!!
If only it was on television :(
A great final and a fitting end to the World Cup! Even down 4-1, I never felt like Croatia was out of the match, but I was very happy to see France get the win.