http://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-jobs-lost-automation/
QuoteVisualizing the Jobs Lost to Automation
JEFF DESJARDINS on May 30, 2017 at 12:42 pm
(http://2oqz471sa19h3vbwa53m33yj.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/automation-and-unemployment.jpg)
The employment landscape of the future will look very different than it does today.
While we've charted the automation potential of U.S. jobs before, today's graphic from Henrik Lindberg perhaps tells the story more succinctly.
In plain black and white, it shows the jobs that exist today in contrast to the jobs that are expected to disappear as a result of automation in the workplace. Though, technically speaking, it is applying the probabilities of the widely-cited Frey & Osborne (2013) study to U.S. jobs as of 2016 to give an expected value to each job title.
A DIFFERENT LANDSCAPE
In the near-future, many of today's most common jobs may be changed profoundly. People working as retail salespersons, cashiers, fast food counter workers, and truck drivers will likely see opportunities in those fields dry up as automation takes place.
At the same time, jobs such as those in teaching and nursing are expected to stand the test of time, as they require empathy, creativity, and a human touch not yet available through machines. In the coming decades, it's possible that these could even be professions that employ the most people overall.
CASUALTIES OF THE FALL?
In the vastly different employment landscape of the future, the worry is that low income workers will have fewer opportunities available to them as technology comes into play.
The good news? Historically this has not been true. As an example, nearly 500 years ago, Queen Elizabeth I had a similar fear when she denied a patent for an automated knitting machine. The thought was that the machine would kill jobs, though eventually factories and companies adopted similar technologies anyways. With the lower prices, higher demand for knitted goods, and more capital for investment, jobs for factory weavers actually quadrupled in the coming years.
As we've seen over time, while machines destroy jobs, they also often create new ones.
Composition of U.S. Job Market over the Last 150+ Years
(http://2oqz471sa19h3vbwa53m33yj.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/us-jobs-as-percent-1.jpg)
The bad news? It is now clear that agricultural jobs of the early 20th century were replaced with the white collar jobs of today. However, it is much more difficult to forecast out how some of the jobs of the future will be created, especially for low income workers.
The knitting example above certainly applies in some situations – but in others, it's hard to say what will happen. For example, with millions of unemployed long-haul truck drivers, what roles will these people be taking in the future job market?
Even with costs of transportation and logistics going down, increased demand, and more capital to invest, it seems that there's going to be a lengthy period of time where many of these people will have trouble finding work.
Do they join the company to help manage the many more trucks that are self-driving? It's unlikely, and that is the part of the optimism about automation and future jobs that is the hardest to reconcile.
The ability of farming employment to drop, yet still be able to increase productivity and output shows the effect of farms embracing technology and new resources. Also the average size of a farm is continuing to grow as the farm management population shrinks and consolidates.
This is also why the US has less indigenous farm implement companies than in years past.
The employment crunch in the fast food/food services industry will continue to grow with time. McDonalds will be the leader in seeking automation or cost reduction in fast food services. They are already consolidating drive through services in company owned stores into centralized call centers. That drive window speaker you hear in the future may be someone in a contact center in Omaha with a McDonalds order console, a microphone and a camera view of your vehicle. The order will be taken in Nebraska, but will appear on the cooks screen in Florida for the next order.
There is some resistance to automation in food preparation due to historical lack of quality, several chains have tried it as far back as the 1960's, but with mixed results. Current tastes, especially with millennials, is for fresh, fast casual of all food types. Fresh and fast will be more difficult to integrate with automation.
Banks are doing the same thing with teller automation. Video tellers, which are really just ATM's with a screen and camera, route people with questions or issues to a centralized call center where the "virtual" teller can hear and see you and works to assist. When physical branches close in low margin areas, banks can still provide full service to the community. With the growth of online or mobile banking, automation supporting the back office functions will continue to grow enormously.
Quote from: sanmarcomatt on June 02, 2017, 09:51:29 AM
Is there a job category for "writers that create worthless internet content hoping to generate clicks"?
I'm sorry you think it is worthless. Seems like important and pertinent information to me...
Quote from: BridgeTroll on June 02, 2017, 09:54:27 AM
Quote from: sanmarcomatt on June 02, 2017, 09:51:29 AM
Is there a job category for "writers that create worthless internet content hoping to generate clicks"?
I'm sorry you think it is worthless. Seems like important and pertinent information to me...
For real.
On McDonalds, presumably they'll continue to decline regardless of automation, due to declining business for them (unless they turn things around radically). The number of people buying fast food from a restaurant is declining and will continue to do so as tastes change and more things are able to deliver more cheaply. And also as more and more working class people are put out of work by robots, and can't afford to eat out. However, automation is going to affect a wide range of retail besides just food service. It is going to be very disruptive to the economy for quite some time.
Quote from: sanmarcomatt on June 02, 2017, 10:15:58 AM
Not saying the referenced study(which has been discussed just a wee bit since 2013) is worthless. However, I find this particular article offers nothing of value and I was amused that the "author's" job category didn't seem to be represented.
Perhaps I should find a HuffPo article and blame republicans?
Quote from: sanmarcomatt on June 02, 2017, 09:51:29 AM
Is there a job category for "writers that create worthless internet content hoping to generate clicks"?
Sometimes the original post isn't a conclusive perspective, it is a door that is pushed open to discover what others may think, believe or understand.
From there knowledge is obtained.
Quote from: spuwho on June 02, 2017, 10:35:39 AM
Quote from: sanmarcomatt on June 02, 2017, 09:51:29 AM
Is there a job category for "writers that create worthless internet content hoping to generate clicks"?
Sometimes the original post isn't a conclusive perspective, it is a door that is pushed open to discover what others may think, believe or understand.
From there knowledge is obtained.
Thank you Spu...
Quote from: sanmarcomatt on June 02, 2017, 10:39:36 AM
Quote from: spuwho on June 02, 2017, 10:35:39 AM
Quote from: sanmarcomatt on June 02, 2017, 09:51:29 AM
Is there a job category for "writers that create worthless internet content hoping to generate clicks"?
Sometimes the original post isn't a conclusive perspective, it is a door that is pushed open to discover what others may think, believe or understand.
From there knowledge is obtained.
Yoda?
Nope, just spuwho. If it was Yoda I would have turned around the directives of the sentence. :)
The social ramifications that this can bring in the future should also be considered:
https://arstechnica.com/business/2016/12/federal-report-ai-could-threaten-up-to-47-percent-of-jobs-in-two-decades/ (https://arstechnica.com/business/2016/12/federal-report-ai-could-threaten-up-to-47-percent-of-jobs-in-two-decades/)
Mainly being: education to transition workers to other jobs and an increase in wealth inequality since low wage jobs are the most effected.
Additionally:
QuoteThe critical question that researchers cannot answer is whether job growth, which traditionally has offset the loss of 6 percent of US jobs every quarter due to downsizing or closing businesses, can likewise absorb losses due to automation.
Education in STEAM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts, and Math) seem to make the most sense for future students, but the rising cost of education may dampen their appeal.
Quote from: Sonic101 on June 02, 2017, 12:13:44 PM
Education in STEAM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts, and Math) seem to make the most sense for future students, but the rising cost of education may dampen their appeal.
I know someone you might want to talk to...
Quote from: Adam White on June 02, 2017, 12:33:36 PM
Quote from: Sonic101 on June 02, 2017, 12:13:44 PM
Education in STEAM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts, and Math) seem to make the most sense for future students, but the rising cost of education may dampen their appeal.
I know someone you might want to talk to...
This might be one of the funniest, insider slights you've made recently. Bravo!
Also missing from the list (or overlooked): architects, engineers & designers
Quote from: Non-RedNeck Westsider on June 02, 2017, 01:27:44 PM
Quote from: Adam White on June 02, 2017, 12:33:36 PM
Quote from: Sonic101 on June 02, 2017, 12:13:44 PM
Education in STEAM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts, and Math) seem to make the most sense for future students, but the rising cost of education may dampen their appeal.
I know someone you might want to talk to...
This might be one of the funniest, insider slights you've made recently. Bravo!
Also missing from the list (or overlooked): architects, engineers & designers
Thanks. I'm working on refining my approach. Next up: ALL CAPS!!!!
Quote from: Adam White on June 02, 2017, 01:33:07 PM
Thanks. I'm working on refining my approach. Next up: ALL CAPS!!!!
I'd PM MMR first and have him give you a QUICK rundown on SELECTIVE caps usage first.
Quote from: Non-RedNeck Westsider on June 02, 2017, 01:42:54 PM
Quote from: Adam White on June 02, 2017, 01:33:07 PM
Thanks. I'm working on refining my approach. Next up: ALL CAPS!!!!
I'd PM MMR first and have him give you a QUICK rundown on SELECTIVE caps usage first.
True. Amateur mistake on my part. I should probably just give up and move to Baltimore.
Quote from: Adam White on June 02, 2017, 01:55:55 PM
Quote from: Non-RedNeck Westsider on June 02, 2017, 01:42:54 PM
Quote from: Adam White on June 02, 2017, 01:33:07 PM
Thanks. I'm working on refining my approach. Next up: ALL CAPS!!!!
I'd PM MMR first and have him give you a QUICK rundown on SELECTIVE caps usage first.
True. Amateur mistake on my part. I should probably just give up and move to Baltimore.
Hate to break it to you, but I wouldn't feel sorry for you if you did.
Quote from: Non-RedNeck Westsider on June 02, 2017, 02:00:10 PM
Quote from: Adam White on June 02, 2017, 01:55:55 PM
Quote from: Non-RedNeck Westsider on June 02, 2017, 01:42:54 PM
Quote from: Adam White on June 02, 2017, 01:33:07 PM
Thanks. I'm working on refining my approach. Next up: ALL CAPS!!!!
I'd PM MMR first and have him give you a QUICK rundown on SELECTIVE caps usage first.
True. Amateur mistake on my part. I should probably just give up and move to Baltimore.
Hate to break it to you, but I wouldn't feel sorry for you if you did.
;)
When rotary dial phones came out, phone operators no longer needed to dial the number for you, it took away their jobs. Automatic elevators took the jobs of elevator operators, bridges took the jobs of ferrymen.
(http://bloodandporridge.co.uk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Agent-DC.jpg)
So registered nurses are more likely to be replace by automation than stock clerks? Am I reading this right?
Quote from: remc86007 on June 02, 2017, 08:03:48 PM
So registered nurses are more likely to be replace by automation than stock clerks? Am I reading this right?
No. Registered nurses are not likely to be replaced by automation. You've read it wrong.
So, nurses and teachers will be in demand jobs for the future, as well as STEAM employment fields, and it's a good thing I know how to make pizza ;) as i will be boycotting all pizza establishments using non-human workers as well ;)
Quote from: jaxrox on November 13, 2017, 12:08:17 AM
So, nurses and teachers will be in demand jobs for the future, as well as STEAM employment fields, and it's a good thing I know how to make pizza ;) as i will be boycotting all pizza establishments using non-human workers as well ;)
Being a retired educator, I am wondering just how long it will take before we see a seismic shift in that field. I was always a futurist when it came to my profession, as I saw what happened with other professions, and I always tried to prepare my kids for that eventuality. Someone above wisely used the telephone and elevator operators as examples of this; I also used these two specific examples with my own students.
When you consider how much info is out there right now in just about every subject matter, and it is delivered in a very friendly go-at-your-own-pace style, it is mind-boggling and it will continue to grow exponentially. It will hard for parents to let go of that model of education which we have used for over a century, but those that don't adapt will be left behind.
There's an interesting video out by Vox today on the future of jobs, and their relationship with automation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUmyygCMMGA
Quote from: marcuscnelson on November 13, 2017, 08:31:18 PM
There's an interesting video out by Vox today on the future of jobs, and their relationship with automation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUmyygCMMGA
That was really good. Thanks for sharing it.
Quote from: sanmarcomatt on November 14, 2017, 12:22:29 PM
Yes, I thought that was good too.
I am one that has made fun of the "oh no, all of the jobs will be gone" panic and loved the example of the older articles. But maybe it really is different this time.
Of course, I have wondered if Companies need people to buy their products to exist, how can people buy products if there are no jobs? I guess if we are thinking Skynet, it doesn't really matter.
I also liked the ending about thinking about what you can control. Amen.
What is coming? Utopia? Mad Max? Jags are the new Pats?
I was a technology teacher for the last 28 years. For over 20 of those, my students first-day assignment for me was to build the McDonald's of the future. It had to be buildable today (even if it was cost-prohibitive) and it had to have NO employees, unless it broke or needed restocking. The next day, we would get into this whole discussion of technology replacing jobs that used to be there in great quantities.
As for what's next, I think you hit the nail on the head (except for the Jags part). We saw what happened when companies thought it was a great idea to off-shore all their work in the beginning of this century. Suddenly, people couldn't pay their mortgages, let alone buy products, and the whole country tanked. Hopefully, they'll think things through a little better in the coming wave(s) of automation.