Metro Jacksonville

Community => Transportation, Mass Transit & Infrastructure => Topic started by: Brian_Tampa on March 09, 2017, 09:11:15 AM

Title: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: Brian_Tampa on March 09, 2017, 09:11:15 AM
http://trn.trains.com/news/news-wire/2017/03/08-brightline-new-ceo

Along with getting a new CEO, Brightline announced that Tampa would be the next city they expand service to. Of course, that will be at least 7 to 10 years out in my estimation. August 2017 is the latest I heard for phase 1 start of operations between WPB and Miami.
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: thelakelander on March 09, 2017, 09:33:54 AM
Pretty cool. There's no telling what's going to go on with CSX, with Harrison becoming the new CEO but I assume they'll target the I-4 median. It also mentions they'll be exploring the feasibility of extending to Jax. It doesn't give a timeline, so there's no telling when actual service would start in either market.  I think we all knew Tampa and Jax were givens, assuming the Miami to Orlando phase is a success. For Tampa and Jax, the pressure will be on these markets to develop efficient local transit networks to support potential regional passenger rail connections.

What's really exciting to me is the idea of this extending to markets outside of Florida. Atlanta seems like a natural market.  The addition of stops north of West Palm Beach is an important element as well.  I wonder what the Treasure Coast's reaction will be to the latest news? The next year or so will be pretty interesting as Brightline's first segment goes online.
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: Brian_Tampa on March 09, 2017, 09:46:44 AM
I have also heard it said that there might be some political calculation for announcing this at this time. By engaging the Tampa Bay area in supporting AAF, it could also make defeating the Treasure Coast easier in Tallahassee by adding the support of Tampa Bay area senators and representatives for AAF.

Edit: I say this as AAF had previously said they would not announce expansion until after phase 2 was successful.
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: FlaBoy on March 09, 2017, 10:06:37 AM
Interesting. ATL would be the big prize. Savannah and Charleston could also be interesting connection up the East Coast.

I am guessing the question to the answer below was something like, "Where do you want to expand next?"

QuoteTampa is Florida's next largest population center. For years we've had an expression of interest from leaders in that marketplace who are more than a little interested in a connection into our service," Reininger says, "So we will be able to research and apply ourselves to that opportunity for sure. And [Florida East Coast Railway] already controls the right-of-way into Jacksonville, so we will start to explore whether that is a feasible and reasonable alternative.

To me that sounds like they are literally just exploring the potential of expanding. Tampa came to mind first but Jacksonville may be a lot more cost effective and easier with FEC rolling right into DT Jax. I would assume they would aim for the same ROW that the High Speed Rail had with stops at Disney, Lakeland, and DT Tampa. They key may be Disney...
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: Tacachale on March 09, 2017, 10:25:09 AM
This is pretty cool. Seems very ambitious, though, considering the Orlando expansion isn't even done. Hopefully (if it's successful) the Jax connection will come along quickly after.
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: spuwho on March 09, 2017, 12:18:14 PM
Quote from: Brian_Tampa on March 09, 2017, 09:46:44 AM
I have also heard it said that there might be some political calculation for announcing this at this time. By engaging the Tampa Bay area in supporting AAF, it could also make defeating the Treasure Coast easier in Tallahassee by adding the support of Tampa Bay area senators and representatives for AAF.

Edit: I say this as AAF had previously said they would not announce expansion until after phase 2 was successful.

Shrewd move but probably very accurate assessment of the announcement.

Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: acme54321 on March 09, 2017, 01:25:30 PM
It does seem like this might be more political than anything.  Think about the logistics of getting from Orlando to Tampa vs Cocoa to Jacksonville on track that you already own and operate on.  Tampa is of course a much larger market but it is hard to imagine them expanding there first before Daytona/St. Aug/Jax because the core infrastructure is already there.
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: Brian_Tampa on March 09, 2017, 01:50:12 PM
Quote from: acme54321 on March 09, 2017, 01:25:30 PM
It does seem like this might be more political than anything.  Think about the logistics of getting from Orlando to Tampa vs Cocoa to Jacksonville on track that you already own and operate on.  Tampa is of course a much larger market but it is hard to imagine them expanding there first before Daytona/St. Aug/Jax because the core infrastructure is already there.
Could be mostly political, but I doubt it. FECI/AAF is in business to make money mainly from development of RE. The 2006 FDOT Florida Transportation Planning Document that I've quoted online here before, I truly believe is AAF's guidebook. That document showed that FDOT determined there were something like 5 times the number of intra-Florida city travellers to/from Tampa Bay area compared to Jacksonville. So the decision to go to Tampa first doesn't surprise me. Although using FECR ROW will be cheaper to get to Jacksonville compared to the cost to build to Tampa, the final decision is always about maximizing profits. I believe they have figured out that Tampa provides a better opportunity for that at this time along with the political considerations in Tallahassee regarding the Treasure Coast opposition.

Edit: another factor might be Tampa's downtown area is undergoing a huge increase in developments both under construction and planned. I think that also attracts AAF to Tampa. Daytona Beach and St Augustine don't have the critical mass of urban development near the FECR that Tampa offers. Also, with regards  to the area around the Prime Osborne convention center in Jacksonville, is there anything similar to what's going on in downtown Tampa?
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: Tacachale on March 09, 2017, 01:53:31 PM
Quote from: Brian_Tampa on March 09, 2017, 01:50:12 PM
Quote from: acme54321 on March 09, 2017, 01:25:30 PM
It does seem like this might be more political than anything.  Think about the logistics of getting from Orlando to Tampa vs Cocoa to Jacksonville on track that you already own and operate on.  Tampa is of course a much larger market but it is hard to imagine them expanding there first before Daytona/St. Aug/Jax because the core infrastructure is already there.
Could be mostly political, but I doubt it. FECI/AAF is in business to make money mainly from development of RE. The 2006 FDOT Florida Transportation Planning Document that I've quoted online here before, I truly believe is AAF's guidebook. That document showed that FDOT determined there were something like 5 times the number of intra-Florida city travellers to/from Tampa Bay area compared to Jacksonville. So the decision to go to Tampa first doesn't surprise me. Although using FECR ROW will be cheaper to get to Jacksonville compared to the cost to build to Tampa, the final decision is always about maximizing profits. I believe they have figured out that Tampa provides a better opportunity for that at this time along with the political considerations in Tallahassee regarding the Treasure Coast opposition.

Yeah, probably a bit of column A, a bit of column B. But time will tell. It is certainly very ambitious trying to find a way to build tracks between the Orlando airport and Tampa (wherever in Tampa they go).

I'm also wondering if the local leadership in Tampa has been more receptive than Jax/Daytona/St. Augustine, and is therefore more valuable in getting over the hump of resistance in the Treasure Coast.
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: Brian_Tampa on March 09, 2017, 01:59:19 PM
Quote from: Tacachale on March 09, 2017, 01:53:31 PM
Quote from: Brian_Tampa on March 09, 2017, 01:50:12 PM
Quote from: acme54321 on March 09, 2017, 01:25:30 PM
It does seem like this might be more political than anything.  Think about the logistics of getting from Orlando to Tampa vs Cocoa to Jacksonville on track that you already own and operate on.  Tampa is of course a much larger market but it is hard to imagine them expanding there first before Daytona/St. Aug/Jax because the core infrastructure is already there.
Could be mostly political, but I doubt it. FECI/AAF is in business to make money mainly from development of RE. The 2006 FDOT Florida Transportation Planning Document that I've quoted online here before, I truly believe is AAF's guidebook. That document showed that FDOT determined there were something like 5 times the number of intra-Florida city travellers to/from Tampa Bay area compared to Jacksonville. So the decision to go to Tampa first doesn't surprise me. Although using FECR ROW will be cheaper to get to Jacksonville compared to the cost to build to Tampa, the final decision is always about maximizing profits. I believe they have figured out that Tampa provides a better opportunity for that at this time along with the political considerations in Tallahassee regarding the Treasure Coast opposition.

Yeah, probably a bit of column A, a bit of column B. But time will tell. It is certainly very ambitious trying to find a way to build tracks between the Orlando airport and Tampa (wherever in Tampa they go).

I'm also wondering if the local leadership in Tampa has been more receptive than Jax/Daytona/St. Augustine, and is therefore more valuable in getting over the hump of resistance in the Treasure Coast.
I have heard that Tampa and Hillsborough County leaders have been very receptive to AAF over the last 4 years. I can imagine that local government here is already planning things to help AAF build what they need downtown. Like zoning changes, land swaps, or even buying surplus county land...
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: thelakelander on March 09, 2017, 02:03:35 PM
When I read that article, it doesn't really say when service will begin in either place.  Both are mentioned, so from a political standpoint, there's pandering to politicians in both regions and everything in between.

However, from an implementation and construction process, it will take years to get a line into Tampa. So they could literally begin the process of expanding to Tampa two years earlier than Jax and service actually begin in Jax earlier, simultaneously, or someplace else as part of a more comprehensive future project  It's just too hard to say or speculate either way at this point.
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: Brian_Tampa on March 09, 2017, 02:16:06 PM
Quote from: thelakelander on March 09, 2017, 02:03:35 PM
When I read that article, it doesn't really say when service will begin in either place.  Both are mentioned, so from a political standpoint, there's pandering to politicians in both regions and everything in between.

However, from an implementation and construction process, it will take years to get a line into Tampa. So they could literally begin the process of expanding to Tampa two years earlier than Jax and service actually begin in Jax earlier, simultaneously, or someplace else as part of a more comprehensive future project  It's just too hard to say or speculate either way at this point.
But then Reininger says this:
"Tampa is Florida's next largest population center. For years we've had an expression of interest from leaders in that marketplace who are more than a little interested in a connection into our service," Reininger says, "So we will be able to research and apply ourselves to that opportunity for sure. And [Florida East Coast Railway] already controls the right-of-way into Jacksonville, so we will start to explore whether that is a feasible and reasonable alternative."

With Tampa, "AAF will research and apply ourselves" I take that as meaning they have decided to start actively doing work to figure out how to get to Tampa. With Jacksonville, "explore whether that is a feasible and reasonable alternative" sounds like they don't know if Jacksonville is doable or not at this time. Seems like for now Tampa is their choice and Jacksonville is a maybe, requiring more calculations/studies on traffic and profitability.
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: thelakelander on March 09, 2017, 02:23:43 PM
^Yes, except Jax is as simple as determining if it is feasible and making minor improvements to existing infrastructure already owned with secured rights to run passenger rail already in place.  Tampa requires ironing out deals with FDOT, securing a station site in Tampa and billions in new infrastructure. The construction process alone will take years. Just look at the delays in getting into Orlando.  The Miami to West Palm stretch will begin service this year and construction of new infrastructure on the Beach Line still hasn't began. So without more timeline details its hard to speculate.  Another thing concerning Jax is the line about Brightline potentially serving more than Florida. If anything materializes on that point, feasibility to Jax won't matter since all the tracks run through it.
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: FlaBoy on March 09, 2017, 02:27:26 PM
Quote from: Brian_Tampa on March 09, 2017, 01:59:19 PM
Quote from: Tacachale on March 09, 2017, 01:53:31 PM
Quote from: Brian_Tampa on March 09, 2017, 01:50:12 PM
Quote from: acme54321 on March 09, 2017, 01:25:30 PM
It does seem like this might be more political than anything.  Think about the logistics of getting from Orlando to Tampa vs Cocoa to Jacksonville on track that you already own and operate on.  Tampa is of course a much larger market but it is hard to imagine them expanding there first before Daytona/St. Aug/Jax because the core infrastructure is already there.
Could be mostly political, but I doubt it. FECI/AAF is in business to make money mainly from development of RE. The 2006 FDOT Florida Transportation Planning Document that I've quoted online here before, I truly believe is AAF's guidebook. That document showed that FDOT determined there were something like 5 times the number of intra-Florida city travellers to/from Tampa Bay area compared to Jacksonville. So the decision to go to Tampa first doesn't surprise me. Although using FECR ROW will be cheaper to get to Jacksonville compared to the cost to build to Tampa, the final decision is always about maximizing profits. I believe they have figured out that Tampa provides a better opportunity for that at this time along with the political considerations in Tallahassee regarding the Treasure Coast opposition.

Yeah, probably a bit of column A, a bit of column B. But time will tell. It is certainly very ambitious trying to find a way to build tracks between the Orlando airport and Tampa (wherever in Tampa they go).

I'm also wondering if the local leadership in Tampa has been more receptive than Jax/Daytona/St. Augustine, and is therefore more valuable in getting over the hump of resistance in the Treasure Coast.
I have heard that Tampa and Hillsborough County leaders have been very receptive to AAF over the last 4 years. I can imagine that local government here is already planning things to help AAF build what they need downtown. Like zoning changes, land swaps, or even buying surplus county land...

They have been begging for it because Hillsborough and Pinellas can't pull their crap together for anything.

However, Tampa just has a lot more people in Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Pasco who would consider using it. You would also be going through Lakeland I assume which is another sizable population. At the same time, Daytona Beach, St. A, and Jax will be the must easier sell for initial investment. I think they need to see how they will do financially for a bitin what they have. I think the absolute sh*t show of I-4 around Disney to DT Orlando could inspire people to take the train from Tampa for work but not to MCO. In all reality, this is all about tourists so tourism trends will be interesting. Pinellas is killing it as always but you still drop people off in DT Tampa without a way to get to Clearwater Beach or St. Pete Beach except Uber or a cab.
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: Brian_Tampa on March 09, 2017, 02:31:17 PM
@Lakelander

Delays getting to Orlando have been financial in nature (bond market went south) and NIMBYS on the Treasure Coast. AAF has dealt with FDOT and CFX before regarding leases and other legal stuff. If AAF chooses to use 417 to get to I-4 then that really minimizes land acquisition issues. Some small plots of land will need to be bought from private owners near Ybor city. As far as future service north, will CSX or NS allow a Brightline type operation on their primary routes to florida? I thought Reininger meant other single city pair oportunities such as Dallas Houston, Chicago to whereever, etc..
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: Brian_Tampa on March 09, 2017, 02:37:41 PM
@Flaboy  #13 post

What I want to know, is how this will kick my local politicians into finally dealing with transit issues. Other than spending money on roads. I think this has the potential to change the path of public transit here in Tampa/Hillsborough County. Getting to the beach would cost a fortune, so not sure how to justify that.
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: thelakelander on March 09, 2017, 02:40:56 PM
Quote from: Brian_Tampa on March 09, 2017, 02:31:17 PM
@Lakelander

Delays getting to Orlando have been financial in nature (bond market went south) and NIMBYS on the Treasure Coast. AAF has dealt with FDOT and CFX before regarding leases and other legal stuff. If AAF chooses to use 417 to get to I-4 then that really minimizes land acquisition issues. Some small plots of land will need to be bought from private owners near Ybor city. As far as future service north, will CSX or NS allow a Brightline type operation on their primary routes to florida? I thought Reininger meant other single city pair oportunities such as Dallas Houston, Chicago to whereever, etc..
Yes, I'd expect financial considerations to impact the roll out of a Tampa service as well.  I also don't think using 417 significantly reduces costs. Much of 417 would have to be rebuilt to accommodate rail. However, going to I-4 via the Beach Line could allow for some cost savings via coordination with the future I-4 Ultimate expansion into Polk County.

NS and FEC already have a pretty strong working relationship. They connect in DT Jax. If Brightline does consider looking outside of Florida, tying into Atlanta would be something I'd keep my eye on. Ocklawaha has hinted on the possibilities of an Atlanta-Miami connection several times over the last few years.
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: acme54321 on March 09, 2017, 02:53:13 PM
A high speed train from Atlanta to Miami seems like it would do really well.
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: Tacachale on March 09, 2017, 02:59:41 PM
Quote from: FlaBoy on March 09, 2017, 02:27:26 PM
Quote from: Brian_Tampa on March 09, 2017, 01:59:19 PM
Quote from: Tacachale on March 09, 2017, 01:53:31 PM
Quote from: Brian_Tampa on March 09, 2017, 01:50:12 PM
Quote from: acme54321 on March 09, 2017, 01:25:30 PM
It does seem like this might be more political than anything.  Think about the logistics of getting from Orlando to Tampa vs Cocoa to Jacksonville on track that you already own and operate on.  Tampa is of course a much larger market but it is hard to imagine them expanding there first before Daytona/St. Aug/Jax because the core infrastructure is already there.
Could be mostly political, but I doubt it. FECI/AAF is in business to make money mainly from development of RE. The 2006 FDOT Florida Transportation Planning Document that I've quoted online here before, I truly believe is AAF's guidebook. That document showed that FDOT determined there were something like 5 times the number of intra-Florida city travellers to/from Tampa Bay area compared to Jacksonville. So the decision to go to Tampa first doesn't surprise me. Although using FECR ROW will be cheaper to get to Jacksonville compared to the cost to build to Tampa, the final decision is always about maximizing profits. I believe they have figured out that Tampa provides a better opportunity for that at this time along with the political considerations in Tallahassee regarding the Treasure Coast opposition.

Yeah, probably a bit of column A, a bit of column B. But time will tell. It is certainly very ambitious trying to find a way to build tracks between the Orlando airport and Tampa (wherever in Tampa they go).

I'm also wondering if the local leadership in Tampa has been more receptive than Jax/Daytona/St. Augustine, and is therefore more valuable in getting over the hump of resistance in the Treasure Coast.
I have heard that Tampa and Hillsborough County leaders have been very receptive to AAF over the last 4 years. I can imagine that local government here is already planning things to help AAF build what they need downtown. Like zoning changes, land swaps, or even buying surplus county land...

They have been begging for it because Hillsborough and Pinellas can't pull their crap together for anything.

However, Tampa just has a lot more people in Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Pasco who would consider using it. You would also be going through Lakeland I assume which is another sizable population. At the same time, Daytona Beach, St. A, and Jax will be the must easier sell for initial investment. I think they need to see how they will do financially for a bitin what they have. I think the absolute sh*t show of I-4 around Disney to DT Orlando could inspire people to take the train from Tampa for work but not to MCO. In all reality, this is all about tourists so tourism trends will be interesting. Pinellas is killing it as always but you still drop people off in DT Tampa without a way to get to Clearwater Beach or St. Pete Beach except Uber or a cab.

Well, it's really less about riders than it is about real estate. The riders are more a way to get people to their developments. Either way, Tampa is going to take a lot of doing for it to even be connectable.

Quote from: thelakelander on March 09, 2017, 02:40:56 PM
Quote from: Brian_Tampa on March 09, 2017, 02:31:17 PM
@Lakelander

Delays getting to Orlando have been financial in nature (bond market went south) and NIMBYS on the Treasure Coast. AAF has dealt with FDOT and CFX before regarding leases and other legal stuff. If AAF chooses to use 417 to get to I-4 then that really minimizes land acquisition issues. Some small plots of land will need to be bought from private owners near Ybor city. As far as future service north, will CSX or NS allow a Brightline type operation on their primary routes to florida? I thought Reininger meant other single city pair oportunities such as Dallas Houston, Chicago to whereever, etc..
Yes, I'd expect financial considerations to impact the roll out of a Tampa service as well.  I also don't think using 417 significantly reduces costs. Much of 417 would have to be rebuilt to accommodate rail. However, going to I-4 via the Beach Line could allow for some cost savings via coordination with the future I-4 Ultimate expansion into Polk County.

NS and FEC already have a pretty strong working relationship. They connect in DT Jax. If Brightline does consider looking outside of Florida, tying into Atlanta would be something I'd keep my eye on. Ocklawaha has hinted on the possibilities of an Atlanta-Miami connection several times over the last few years.

Yeah, I can see there being similar pushback as they've faced in the Treasure Coast anywhere else they expand. It's the same issues everywhere, and the same NIMBY tendencies.
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: Kerry on March 09, 2017, 03:04:17 PM
Is there a chance Brightline wants to get to Tampa before SunRail does?
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: tufsu1 on March 09, 2017, 03:08:39 PM
Quote from: Kerry on March 09, 2017, 03:04:17 PM
Is there a chance Brightline wants to get to Tampa before SunRail does?

SunRail won't be expanding there.  CSX has made it clear that their tracks from the Lakeland area west aren't available.
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: Kerry on March 09, 2017, 03:12:11 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on March 09, 2017, 03:08:39 PM
Quote from: Kerry on March 09, 2017, 03:04:17 PM
Is there a chance Brightline wants to get to Tampa before SunRail does?

SunRail won't be expanding there.  CSX has made it clear that their tracks from the Lakeland area west aren't available.

Thanks, I read several stories a few years ago that SunRail to Tampa was a possibility.  One advantage SunRail has is that it goes to downtown Orlando and is already half way to Daytona.
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: Brian_Tampa on March 09, 2017, 03:13:37 PM
Quote from: thelakelander on March 09, 2017, 02:40:56 PM
Quote from: Brian_Tampa on March 09, 2017, 02:31:17 PM
@Lakelander

Delays getting to Orlando have been financial in nature (bond market went south) and NIMBYS on the Treasure Coast. AAF has dealt with FDOT and CFX before regarding leases and other legal stuff. If AAF chooses to use 417 to get to I-4 then that really minimizes land acquisition issues. Some small plots of land will need to be bought from private owners near Ybor city. As far as future service north, will CSX or NS allow a Brightline type operation on their primary routes to florida? I thought Reininger meant other single city pair oportunities such as Dallas Houston, Chicago to whereever, etc..
Yes, I'd expect financial considerations to impact the roll out of a Tampa service as well.  I also don't think using 417 significantly reduces costs. Much of 417 would have to be rebuilt to accommodate rail. However, going to I-4 via the Beach Line could allow for some cost savings via coordination with the future I-4 Ultimate expansion into Polk County.

NS and FEC already have a pretty strong working relationship. They connect in DT Jax. If Brightline does consider looking outside of Florida, tying into Atlanta would be something I'd keep my eye on. Ocklawaha has hinted on the possibilities of an Atlanta-Miami connection several times over the last few years.
Using the Beach Line to I-4 would require alot of private property acquisition if using either the Beach Line all the way from the airport or using the FL HSR route through the Trade Port area west of the airport to get to Beach Line. 417 seems to have more open space either in the median or alongside the expressway on CFX ROW. That's why I think 417 is more doable. Plus it will most likely be faster to complete by not having to obtain private property. AAF probably prefers to deal with as few landowners as possible. Both routes are in play as I've been told that FDOT is preserving the rail ROW in the median of I-4 east to the Beach Line interchange with I-4.

The other thing about Jacksonville expansion is that the additional route is roughly 2X longer than a Tampa extension. Also they are trying to hold travel time down so a 110 mph MAS is really maybe 80mph average or about 2 hours to get to Cocoa. And another 2+ to Miami. Tampa requires 1 hour to get to Orlando maybe less if 125mph running can be maximized.
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: thelakelander on March 09, 2017, 03:19:30 PM
Quote from: Kerry on March 09, 2017, 03:12:11 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on March 09, 2017, 03:08:39 PM
Quote from: Kerry on March 09, 2017, 03:04:17 PM
Is there a chance Brightline wants to get to Tampa before SunRail does?

SunRail won't be expanding there.  CSX has made it clear that their tracks from the Lakeland area west aren't available.

Thanks, I read several stories a few years ago that SunRail to Tampa was a possibility.  One advantage SunRail has is that it goes to downtown Orlando and is already half way to Daytona.


My firm was a part of a study looking at extending Sunrail from DeLand into Daytona, a few years back.  If I were a gambling man, I'd put money on Brightline reaching Daytona before Sunrail ever does. Right now, Sunrail generates less ridership than the Skyway, despite costing hundreds of millions more and serving a much larger metropolitan area.  Those for counties are also going to have to figure out how to fund their share of annual O&M costs when the state stops funding it, in a few years.
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: FlaBoy on March 09, 2017, 03:35:51 PM
If there were an expansion to ATL one day, that would be a huge win for Jax. But it would also have a solid chance at being profitable long term. Miami/Ft Lauderdale/WBP and ATL are going to be the 7th and 8th largest markets in the country soon. Orlando is the most visited place by tourists in the USA. Miami is the #5 most visited. I can only think of positive things for Jax with a higher speed rail line that was MIA-FTL-WPB-ORL-JAX-ATL.
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: thelakelander on March 09, 2017, 06:39:02 PM
The Orlando segment is delayed for another 2.5 years minimum. So if it gets off the ground, passenger service into Orlando won't start until 2020:

QuoteService between South Florida and Orlando International Airport was slated to begin by year-end. But at least two and half years have since been tacked on to the original timetable.

Michael Reininger, former president of Brightline and now executive director of Brightline parent company Florida East Coast Industries, said Tuesday that the West Palm Beach-to-Orlando portion of the train project, referred to as Phase II, needs additional permits. A concrete financing plan is not yet in place either. Once those to-do's are checked off, the real work begins.

"As a practical matter, there's about 30 months of construction that needs to be done," Reininger said. "We won't start that construction until we finish the permitting and get the financing put in place."

http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/news/2017/03/08/brightline-installs-new-ceo-reveals-2-5-year-delay.html
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: FlaBoy on March 09, 2017, 06:50:04 PM
Interesting. With all those problems getting to MCO, I can only imagine the issues getting all the way to Tampa.
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: thelakelander on March 09, 2017, 07:01:19 PM
As Brian_Tampa said, probably a good 10 years, assuming no delays. Given the distance, you could be looking at two to three years alone for construction, after getting through ROW acquisition, design, financing, permitting and political football.  The Miami-West Palm Beach segment went quick because the ROW and infrastructure was pretty much already in place.
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: Brian_Tampa on March 09, 2017, 08:01:38 PM
Quote from: thelakelander on March 09, 2017, 07:01:19 PM
As Brian_Tampa said, probably a good 10 years, assuming no delays. Given the distance, you could be looking at two to three years alone for construction, after getting through ROW acquisition, design, financing, permitting and political football.  The Miami-West Palm Beach segment went quick because the ROW and infrastructure was pretty much already in place.
In a way I am glad it will take that long to get here. Maybe by then, Tampa Bay will finally have a decently funded public transportation system under construction instead of endless studies and plans that go nowhere. But honestly, if they get to Orlando then the next 85 miles to Tampa should be easier in every way. There won't be the rabid NIMBY opposition as seen in the Treasure Coast and the ROW will be along a very busy 6 lane I-4 interstate that everybody here knows is horrible to travel. And by then, if the Tampa extension is built that means the Orlando to Miami route is a winner making money for the investors. Since AAF is a new and untested business model, there is understandable concern at this time before any results are known.
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: ProjectMaximus on June 15, 2017, 09:12:43 PM
There's a handful of people on the CD forums who speculate that the objective of Brightline is to fail as a passenger rail line so that FECI will be allowed to takeover with its freight trains. Like the entire concept is a ruse to simply upgrade and increase freight service.

Those of you who understand the business, why is this a ridiculous theory? Or is it actually possible?
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: Tacachale on June 15, 2017, 09:14:39 PM
Quote from: ProjectMaximus on June 15, 2017, 09:12:43 PM
There's a handful of people on the CD forums who speculate that the objective of Brightline is to fail as a passenger rail line so that FECI will be allowed to takeover with its freight trains. Like the entire concept is a ruse to simply upgrade and increase freight service.

Those of you who understand the business, why is this a ridiculous theory? Or is it actually possible?

It's crazy that they'd invest so much into the stations if they planned for the system that used them to fail.
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: thelakelander on June 15, 2017, 10:57:38 PM
Quote from: ProjectMaximus on June 15, 2017, 09:12:43 PM
There's a handful of people on the CD forums who speculate that the objective of Brightline is to fail as a passenger rail line so that FECI will be allowed to takeover with its freight trains. Like the entire concept is a ruse to simply upgrade and increase freight service.

Those of you who understand the business, why is this a ridiculous theory? Or is it actually possible?
I remember some speculation here a few years back.  However, FEC was sold to Grupo Mexico a few months ago.  Why would Brightline want to fail so another company can operate freight?

QuoteGrupo Mexico, a mining and rail conglomerate, is buying the Florida East Coast Railway Holdings Corp. for $2.1 billion under an agreement announced Tuesday.

The purchase will enable the Mexican company to expand its U.S. freight transport business on Florida East Coast Railway's 351 miles of tracks stretching from Miami to Jacksonville. Grupo Mexico has existing rail operations in Texas.

The transaction will be financed by $350 million in Grupo Mexico funds and $1.75 billion in debt, according to Grupo Mexico.

The sale of Jacksonville-based FEC Railway, which is owned by Fortress Investment Group, will have no impact on the company's other holdings — including the Brightline passenger train operation in South Florida.

The investment group also owns Florida East Coast Industries, the parent company of All Aboard Florida, developer and owner of the Brightlight passenger train system being built from Miami to West Palm Beach and Orlando.

"The sale of the Florida East Coast Railway does not impact Brightline," said a spokeswoman, AnneMarie Mathews. "Brightline is a separate company that has dual ownership of the corridor and the right to operate passenger service."
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article141301728.html
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: ProjectMaximus on June 16, 2017, 12:32:23 AM
Quote from: thelakelander on June 15, 2017, 10:57:38 PM
Quote from: ProjectMaximus on June 15, 2017, 09:12:43 PM
There's a handful of people on the CD forums who speculate that the objective of Brightline is to fail as a passenger rail line so that FECI will be allowed to takeover with its freight trains. Like the entire concept is a ruse to simply upgrade and increase freight service.

Those of you who understand the business, why is this a ridiculous theory? Or is it actually possible?
I remember some speculation here a few years back.  However, FEC was sold to Grupo Mexico a few months ago.  Why would Brightline want to fail so another company can operate freight?

QuoteGrupo Mexico, a mining and rail conglomerate, is buying the Florida East Coast Railway Holdings Corp. for $2.1 billion under an agreement announced Tuesday.

The purchase will enable the Mexican company to expand its U.S. freight transport business on Florida East Coast Railway's 351 miles of tracks stretching from Miami to Jacksonville. Grupo Mexico has existing rail operations in Texas.

The transaction will be financed by $350 million in Grupo Mexico funds and $1.75 billion in debt, according to Grupo Mexico.

The sale of Jacksonville-based FEC Railway, which is owned by Fortress Investment Group, will have no impact on the company's other holdings — including the Brightline passenger train operation in South Florida.

The investment group also owns Florida East Coast Industries, the parent company of All Aboard Florida, developer and owner of the Brightlight passenger train system being built from Miami to West Palm Beach and Orlando.

"The sale of the Florida East Coast Railway does not impact Brightline," said a spokeswoman, AnneMarie Mathews. "Brightline is a separate company that has dual ownership of the corridor and the right to operate passenger service."
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article141301728.html

LOL well that settles that. Thanks!
Title: Re: Brightline says Tampa is next up
Post by: spuwho on June 16, 2017, 09:12:29 PM
Yes, there is a small vocal conspiracy crowd claiming that Brightline will fail and that it will be sold to the State of Florida while FEC will get to leverage to upgraded system.

I think that theory has been debunked well, but detractors persist.

Once we see the WPB-Miami segment running day in, day out into Miami Central, the conspiracy theorists will be reduced even more.