Metro Jacksonville

The Country's Largest Television Markets

(http://www.metrojacksonville.com/photos/thumbs/lrg-5899-television_market_map.jpg)

 How does Jacksonville rank amongst America's top designated TV and Radio Markets?

Full Article
http://www.metrojacksonville.com/content/view/852

The top 18 are all football cities.

New Orleans and Green Bay are the only markets smaller.  The good news is that the Jax market did jump up one position in the rankings to 49th

Quote2007 / 2008 / CHANGE + or -
1 1 New York, NY
2 2 Los Angeles, CA
3 3 Chicago, IL
4 4 Philadelphia, PA
6 5 +1 Dallas - Ft. Worth, TX
5 6 -1 San Francisco - Oakland - San Jose, CA
7 7 Boston, MA
9 8 +1 Atlanta, GA
8 9 -1 Washington, DC
10 10 Houston, TX
11 11 Detroit, MI
13 12 +1 Phoenix, AZ
12 13 -1 Tampa - St. Petersburg - Sarasota, FL
14 14 Seattle - Tacoma, WA
15 15 Minneapolis, MN
16 16 Miami - Ft. Lauderdale, FL
17 17 Cleveland - Akron, OH
18 18 Denver, CO
19 19 Orlando - Daytona Beach - Melbourne, FL
20 20 Sacramento - Stockton - Modesto, CA
21 21 St. Louis, MO
22 22 Pittsburgh, PA
23 23 Portland, OR
24 24 Baltimore, MD
26 25 +1 Charlotte, NC
25 26 -1 Indianapolis, IN
27 27 San Diego, CA
29 28 +1 Raleigh - Durham, NC
28 29 -1 Hartford - New Haven, CT
30 30 Nashville, TN
31 31 Kansas City, MO
32 32 Columbus, OH
33 33 Cincinnati, OH
34 34 Milwaukee, WI
35 35 Salt Lake City, UT
36 36 Greenville - Spartanburg, SC / Asheville, NC / Anderson, SC
37 37 San Antonio, TX
38 38 West Palm Beach - Fort Pierce, FL
39 39 Grand Rapids - Kalamazoo - Battle Creek, MI
40 40 Birmingham, AL
41 41 Harrisburg - Lancaster - Lebanon - York, PA
42 42 Norfolk - Portsmouth - Newport News, VA
43 43 Las Vegas, NV
46 44 +2 Albuquerque - Santa Fe, NM
45 45 Oklahoma City, OK
47 46 +1 Greensboro - High Point - Winston Salem, NC
44 47 -3 Memphis, TN
48 48 Louisville, KY
50 49 +1 Jacksonville, FL / Brunswick, GA
49 50 -1 Buffalo, NY
52 51 +1 Austin, TX
51 52 -1 Providence, RI / New Bedford, MA
54 53 +1 New Orleans, LA
53 54 -1 Wilkes Barre - Scranton, PA
55 55 Fresno - Visalia, CA
56 56 Albany - Schnectady - Troy, NY
57 57 Little Rock - Pine Bluff, AR
60 58 +2 Knoxville, TN
61 59 +2 Richmond - Petersburg, VA
62 60 +2 Tulsa, OK
59 61 -2 Mobile, AL / Pensacola, FL
58 62 -4 Dayton, OH
64 63 +1 Ft. Myers - Naples, FL
63 64 -1 Lexington, KY
65 65 Charleston - Huntington, WV
66 66 Flint - Saginaw - Bay City, MI
68 67 +1 Roanoke - Lynchburg, VA
70 68 +2 Tucson, AZ
67 69 -2 Wichita - Hutchinson, KS
69 70 -1 Green Bay - Appleton, WI
73 71 +2 Des Moines - Ames, IA
71 72 -1 Toledo, OH
72 73 -1 Honolulu, HI

Looks like you are refering to Football viewers...  Be sure to add Milwaukee to the Green bay numbers.

And #2 is NOT a football city.  At least not American football.

QuoteAnd #2 is NOT a football city.  At least not American football.

Yeah!! <angrily shakes fist>

::)

Quote1 Los Angeles
Metro population (2006): 16,976,264
TV market rank: 2nd
Existing big-league teams: MLB Angels and Dodgers, NBA Clippers and Lakers, NHL Ducks and Kings

Bottom line: The Los Angeles market has two teams in every other sport, but lost its NFL teams when the Rams and Raiders skulked away in 1995. L.A. has enough surplus income to support seven NFL teams, according to a 2006 Bizjournals.com study, so one team should have no trouble. The biggest barrier is finding a site for a new stadium -- and someone to foot the bill.

http://buffalo.bizjournals.com/buffalo/stories/2008/02/18/story9.html

We also just passed Buffalo as an NFL TV market. I think we will continue a slow move up this list for a while.

Quote from: thebrokenforum on August 04, 2008, 12:52:14 PM

QuoteAnd #2 is NOT a football city.  At least not American football.

Yeah!! <angrily shakes fist>

::)

Quote1 Los Angeles
Metro population (2006): 16,976,264
TV market rank: 2nd
Existing big-league teams: MLB Angels and Dodgers, NBA Clippers and Lakers, NHL Ducks and Kings

Bottom line: The Los Angeles market has two teams in every other sport, but lost its NFL teams when the Rams and Raiders skulked away in 1995. L.A. has enough surplus income to support seven NFL teams, according to a 2006 Bizjournals.com study, so one team should have no trouble. The biggest barrier is finding a site for a new stadium -- and someone to foot the bill.

http://buffalo.bizjournals.com/buffalo/stories/2008/02/18/story9.html

Sorry, sorry, sorry!!  Jeeze guys, don't bite my head off!  :)



Are there different criteria for the NFL television markets?

Jason:

I was being sarcastic by agreeing with "heekgator". I guess that didn't come through. (Hence the shaking of the fit in an angry manner

While they currently don't have a team there, LA is a huge football city and pro sports city in general) - if they weren't you wouldn't have a bazillion stories talking about getting an NFL team back into the nations number 2 market. I have no idea why people think soccer is so popular in LA and football isn't. It's a ridiculous assumption which has popped up on this board before. Even without the NFL they still have USC an UCLA.

You have nothing to apologize for. The numbers speak for themselves.

Yeah, LA is a good Pro football market

                    Signed,

                           Al Davis and Georgia Frontiere

Quote from: thebrokenforum on August 04, 2008, 03:50:29 PM
Jason:

I was being sarcastic by agreeing with "heekgator". I guess that didn't come through. (Hence the shaking of the fit in an angry manner

While they currently don't have a team there, LA is a huge football city and pro sports city in general) - if they weren't you wouldn't have a bazillion stories talking about getting an NFL team back into the nations number 2 market. I have no idea why people think soccer is so popular in LA and football isn't. It's a ridiculous assumption which has popped up on this board before. Even without the NFL they still have USC an UCLA.

You have nothing to apologize for. The numbers speak for themselves.

I was responding sarcasticly too...  ;)

Lol

Are you from LA, broken?  You always seem to be defending their football bona fides on here.  I guess maybe the main reason why people think they are not a good NFL market is the fact that they have lost TWO NFL franchises basically for a lack of support.  They clearly have the money and the population to support a team but the question is do they care.  The answer with the Rams and the Raiders was no.

River, that's incorrect. They lost the Raiders because Al Davis is a kooky guy and simply moved the team to Oakland. The Rams moved because the stadium sucked. The stadium still sucks. Worst in the league. To answer your question I am not from LA but have spent a great deal of time there. I also have friends and family there and I can tell you that the "raider nation" is alive and well there. I've seen it. LA is a huge city. Do they care? I dunno. But I can tell you that there are a ton of rabid nfl fans and ncaa fans there. 

I knew there was a California connection here.  That explains a lot.  In any event, yes Al Davis is a kook and the stadium is the pits but if the NFL were really a priority for the jaded Southern Californians perhaps they would put together a new stadium deal and get it done.  They have had since 1995 (when the Raiders and the Rams left) to do something.  Looks like this is not exactly a burning issue for the "leadership" out there.

QuoteI knew there was a California connection here.  That explains a lot.

Ha! Ok...

Quoteperhaps they would put together a new stadium deal and get it done.

That's the plan.

QuoteLooks like this is not exactly a burning issue for the "leadership" out there.

Well, considering that they have over seven professional caliber teams I don't think the "leadership" is losing much sleep over it. A new stadium would be privately funded.

Almost a decade later, it was interesting looking at the change.

1   New York, NY   30   7,348,620   6.407
2   Los Angeles, CA   28   5,476,830   4.775
3   Chicago, IL   23   3,463,060   3.019
4   Philadelphia, PA   25   2,942,800   2.566
5   Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX   20   2,713,380   2.366
6   San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA   27   2,488,090   2.169
7   Washington, DC   24   2,476,680   2.159
8   Houston, TX   20   2,450,800   2.137
9   Boston, MA   22   2,424,240   2.114
10   Atlanta, GA   19   2,412,730   2.104
11   Tampa-St.Petersburg-Sarasota, FL   17   1,908,590   1.664
12   Phoenix, AZ   22   1,890,100   1.648
13   Detroit, MI   9   1,853,030   1.616
14   Seattle-Tacoma, WA   17   1,808,530   1.577
15   Minneapolis - St. Paul, MN   20   1,742,530   1.519
16   Miami - Ft. Lauderdale, FL   18   1,696,330   1.479
17   Denver, CO   29   1,630,380   1.422
18   Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne, FL   17   1,519,570   1.325
19   Cleveland-Akron, OH   17   1,498,960   1.307
20   Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto, CA   17   1,379,770   1.203
21   St. Louis, MO   10   1,215,570   1.060
22   Charlotte, NC   12   1,189,950   1.038
23   Pittsburgh, PA   10   1,160,220   1.012
24   Raleigh-Durham, NC   15   1,153,580   1.006
25   Portland, OR   18   1,143,670   0.997
26   Baltimore, MD   10   1,119,480   0.976
27   Indianapolis, IN   19   1,086,310   0.947
28   San Diego, CA   14   1,065,700   0.929
29   Nashville, TN   16   1,011,570   0.882
30   Hartford-New Haven, CT   14   963,950   0.840
31   San Antonio, TX   19   938,660   0.818
32   Columbus, OH   12   920,740   0.803
33   Kansas City, KS-MO   11   919,020   0.801
34   Salt Lake City, UT   26   916,960   0.799
35   Milwaukee, WI   14   895,700   0.781
36   Cincinnati, OH   11   863,800   0.753
37   Greenville-Spartanburg, SC-Asheville, NC   12   845,990   0.738
38   West Palm Beach-Ft. Pierce, FL   13   824,920   0.719
39   Austin, TX   11   771,210   0.672
40   Las Vegas, NV   18   757,840   0.661
41   Oklahoma City, OK   17   722,140   0.630
42   Norfolk-Portsmouth-Newport News, VA   13   717,170   0.625
43   Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York, PA   6   715,110   0.624
44   Grand Rapids-Kalamazoo-Battle Creek, MI   13   709,670   0.619
45   Birmingham, AL   14   696,380   0.607
46   Greensboro-High Point-Winston Salem, NC   9   690,050   0.602
47   Jacksonville, FL   13   688,500   0.600
48   Albuquerque-Santa Fe, NM   30   677,590   0.591
49   Louisville, KY   11   662,170   0.577
50   New Orleans, LA   13   641,620   0.559
51   Memphis, TN   14   633,930   0.553
52   Providence, RI-New Bedford, MA   8   616,280   0.537
53   Buffalo, NY   10   596,710   0.520
54   Fresno-Visalia, CA   19   573,180   0.500
55   Richmond-Petersburg, VA   7   564,510   0.492
56   Wilkes Barre-Scranton, PA   8   554,660   0.484
57   Little Rock-Pine Bluff, AR   12   547,950   0.478
58   Tulsa, OK   15   531,230   0.463
59   Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY   11   529,120   0.461
60   Mobile, AL-Pensacola, FL   15   528,320   0.461
61   Ft. Myers-Naples, FL   11   518,730   0.452
62   Knoxville, TN   11   514,610   0.449
63   Lexington, KY   12   479,420   0.418
64   Dayton, OH   10   466,040   0.406
65   Honolulu, HI   26   442,820   0.386
66   Wichita - Hutchinson, KS   28   439,760   0.383
67   Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA   8   439,620   0.383
68   Green Bay-Appleton, WI   8   438,070   0.382
69   Des Moines-Ames, IA   11   433,950   0.378
70   Charleston-Huntington, WV   13   431,150   0.376

Other Florida Markets:

107   Tallahassee, FL-Thomasville, GA   7   268,390   0.234
154   Panama City, FL   6   141,740   0.124
161   Gainesville, FL   8   126,400   0.110

(http://www.dishuser.com/TVMarkets/Maps/florida.gif)

Wouldn't it make more sense for both quality of the news/resources to combine at least Alachua and Gilchrist into the Jax Metro at some point especially with Lake City, Starke, and Palatka as part of the Jax TV Market? It would also help Jax rise in the TV Market rankings quickly into a top 40 market.

Likewise, how does Flagler County end up with Orlando rather than Jax when these decisions were made years ago?

This is something that is definitely an impediment to Jax moving forward.

^Flagler has a closer relationship with Volusia and Volusia is firmly entrenched in Central Florida's market.  Btw, what were the numbers 10 years ago?

For sure. The Daytona Beach/Ormond Beach Area.

06-07 07-08         2007   2008
Rank Rank   Difference   DMA Name   TV Homes   TV Homes
1   1      New York   7,366,950   7,391,940
2   2      Los Angeles   5,611,110   5,647,440
3   3      Chicago   3,455,020   3,469,110
4   4      Philadelphia   2,941,450   2,939,950
6   5   +1   Dallas-Ft. Worth   2,378,660   2,435,600
5   6   -1   San Francisco-Oak-San Jose   2,383,570   2,419,440
7   7      Boston (Manchester)   2,372,030   2,393,960
9   8   +1   Atlanta   2,205,510   2,310,490
8   9   -1   Washington, DC (Hagrstwn)   2,272,120   2,308,290
10   10      Houston   1,982,120   2,050,550
11   11      Detroit   1,938,320   1,925,460
13   12   +1   Phoenix (Prescott)   1,725,000   1,802,550
12   13   -1   Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota)   1,755,750   1,783,910
14   14      Seattle-Tacoma   1,724,450   1,782,040
15   15      Minneapolis-St. Paul   1,678,430   1,706,740
16   16      Miami-Ft. Lauderdale   1,538,620   1,536,020
17   17      Cleveland-Akron (Canton)   1,537,500   1,533,710
18   18      Denver   1,431,910   1,477,280
19   19      Orlando-Daytona Bch-Melbrn   1,395,830   1,434,050
20   20      Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto   1,368,680   1,391,790
21   21      St. Louis   1,228,980   1,244,370
22   22      Pittsburgh   1,163,150   1,158,210
23   23      Portland, OR   1,117,990   1,150,320
24   24      Baltimore   1,097,290   1,095,490
26   25   +1   Charlotte   1,045,240   1,085,640
25   26   -1   Indianapolis   1,060,550   1,072,090
27   27      San Diego   1,030,020   1,051,210
29   28   +1   Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle)   1,006,330   1,039,890
28   29   -1   Hartford & New Haven   1,014,630   1,007,490
30   30      Nashville   944,100   966,170
31   31      Kansas City   913,280   927,060
32   32      Columbus, OH   898,030   905,690
33   33      Cincinnati   886,910   904,340
34   34      Milwaukee   882,990   891,010
35   35      Salt Lake City   839,170   874,650
36   36      Greenvll-Spart-Ashevll-And   826,290   838,270
37   37      San Antonio   774,470   792,440
38   38      West Palm Beach-Ft. Pierce   772,140   775,340
39   39      Grand Rapids-Kalmzoo-B.Crk   734,670   739,640
40   40      Birmingham (Ann, Tusc)   723,210   730,430
41   41      Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York   713,960   723,620
42   42      Norfolk-Portsmth-Newpt Nws   712,790   717,440
43   43      Las Vegas   671,630   707,470
45   44   +1   Albuquerque-Santa Fe   662,380   677,740
45   45      Oklahoma City   662,380   676,850
47   46   +1   Greensboro-H.Point-W.Salem   660,570   671,980
44   47   -3   Memphis   664,290   667,890
48   48      Louisville   648,190   657,180
50   49   +1   Jacksonville   639,110   655,470
49   50   -1   Buffalo   639,990   636,700
52   51   +1   Austin   602,340   635,860
51   52   -1   Providence-New Bedford   633,950   626,800
54   53   +1   New Orleans   566,960   600,150
53   54   -1   Wilkes Barre-Scranton   590,170   592,310
55   55      Fresno-Visalia   557,380   568,730
56   56      Albany-Schenectady-Troy   554,970   553,790
57   57      Little Rock-Pine Bluff   539,900   552,400
60   58   +2   Knoxville   523,010   534,410
61   59   +2   Richmond-Petersburg   517,800   526,760
62   60   +2   Tulsa   513,090   519,820
59   61   -2   Mobile-Pensacola (Ft Walt)   524,200   517,410
58   62   -4   Dayton   531,120   511,220
64   63   +1   Ft. Myers-Naples   479,130   491,760
63   64   -1   Lexington   483,520   490,530
65   65      Charleston-Huntington   477,040   476,680
66   66      Flint-Saginaw-Bay City   474,430   469,980
68   67   +1   Roanoke-Lynchburg   445,840   451,580
70   68   +2   Tucson (Sierra Vista)   433,310   446,550
67   69   -2   Wichita-Hutchinson Plus   445,860   446,520
69   70   -1   Green Bay-Appleton   434,760   439,940

If you were to add the Gainesville Market, in another decade with the current growth, you could certainly be around Cincinatti and Milwaukee in size of TV Market which would provide a lot better quality for our region. There would certainly be potential to move into a Top 30 Market spot in 20 years and max out somewhere in the high 20's of course depending on the growth of other regions.

Too bad television markets are going to mean less and less each year. At some point all NFL games will be available to stream and that whole dynamic will be gone. TV Viewership is eroding away as well as more and more people make the move to streaming services that don't dictate times to watch shows. Its nice to see we are moving up but I am just not sure how much longer this will remain relevant.

Regarding over-the-air TV, the northern half and eastern third of Alachua County also watch Jacksonville. I suspect the same for the northeastern third of Marion and northern half of Flagler County. Those numbers aren't included in the Jax numbers but, instead, Orlando. That is a two-sided quirk; Gainesville for TV purposes is a separate market & Ocala isn't, but Gainesville-Ocala (truly one market) isn't listed as one market for TV. When I was in school at UF, we watched Jacksonville TV stations on local cable.

And Ennis -- Memphis, Memphis, Memphis . . . hmmm. A serious slide from 44 to 51 over more than a decade. Definitely not similar to Jax.

LOL, what does this have to do with similar sized urban areas?  I would not call Harrisburg, PA or Greenville, SC a similar sized urban area despite them having larger tv markets than Jax.

Determining the size of a metropolitan region through TV market size is quickly becoming as out-of-date a standard as Billboard's Hot 100 charts going exclusively on CD sales and downloads. Think of the changes in viewing habits over the last ten years. So many more households have cut the cord on cable and satellite cutting into local programming and ad  viewers (which by the way is the most important reason size is relevant). On top of that, the old megawatt analog-blasted TV signals from the last decade are now no more and you need to live much closer to the digital TV station making these market boundaries determined by outdated tech laughable. And how they determined which cities belong to which TV market having nothing to do with reality. For instance do you really think cities like San Jose, Sarasota, Palm Springs, Asheville, Ft. Walton Beach, or Winston-Salem have that much "allegiance" to their designated TV market? Since none of these examples rely on their market origin city for employment, transit, primary shopping, print media, minor league team support, etc. as much as areas less than 20 miles away, it gives a lot of these TV markets a deceptive image of their regional impact tacking on disparate cities like this.

A much more accurate indicator of regional area size are the annual U.S. Census metro population estimates, the most recent one just released this month. In case you were wondering, Jacksonville is currently ranked 40th largest (should be 41 since Raleigh and Durham are calculated separately).

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

Quote from: thelakelander on April 18, 2017, 04:36:29 PM
LOL, what does this have to do with similar sized urban areas?  I would not call Harrisburg, PA or Greenville, SC a similar sized urban area despite them having larger tv markets than Jax.

Ennis . . . you know I'm just having some fun with you. However, our Memphis dispute doesn't go back to similar sizes. It goes back to similarity. See the difference? The quirks of TV markets are just that, quirks.

Don't start dancing the Watusi on me:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjFeIUUh9tg

;-)

Haha, I still say that Memphis is pretty similar. Like Jax, it's a sprawling second tier regional mid-sized metropolitan area with a core city that covers hundreds of miles.  Like Jax, it's also a historic river city and early 20th century regional rail hub, leading to an economy once centered around maritime, manufacturing and distribution.  Like Jax, due to it's prominence in the South during Reconstruction, it's also a center of African-American culture and enlightenment in areas such as jazz and blues.  I'd argue that Jax and Memphis are closer in scale and share more similarities with one another than say Jax does with a recent Sunbelt sprawler like Orlando or Raleigh.

Still a slave to a look far too heavily influenced by history, Ennis -- one of these days you'll give that up. One of these days.

Douglas MacArthur to the 1933 graduating class at West Point:

   A good soldier, whether he leads a platoon or an army, is expected to look backward as well as forward, but he must think only forward.

Quote from: thelakelander on April 19, 2017, 09:56:25 AM
Haha, I still say that Memphis is pretty similar. Like Jax, it's a sprawling second tier regional mid-sized metropolitan area with a core city that covers hundreds of miles.  Like Jax, it's also a historic river city and early 20th century regional rail hub, leading to an economy once centered around maritime, manufacturing and distribution.  Like Jax, due to it's prominence in the South during Reconstruction, it's also a center of African-American culture and enlightenment in areas such as jazz and blues.  I'd argue that Jax and Memphis are closer in scale and share more similarities with one another than say Jax does with a recent Sunbelt sprawler like Orlando or Raleigh.

Memphis and Jax have a lot in common. Memphis has a little bit more history when it comes to music of course with the rise of Rock'n'Roll occurring there. Jax has a very different feel with the Beaches though which permeates the whole city at this point. I have always thought Tampa and Jacksonville are just very similar, even with the feel of its growth patterns (excluding Pinellas). There is definitely a different Florida feel that is hard to capture in other large metros. Likewise, every day that Memphis is stagnant in growth and Jax Metro grows at a 10% clip, Jax is less like Memphis and more like Tampa.

Jax is both like Memphis and Tampa.  We share several characteristics with cities that were of similar size and scale during most of the 20th century.  For example, you can find decent similarities with cities like Norfolk, Louisville, Mobile, etc. as well.

Regarding Tampa, Jax was literally the same size a 100 years ago and both were port cities with economies built around maritime and industry.  However, the Tampa Bay area is also radically different in that there's Pinellas County as well, so there's more than twice as many people with a significantly larger tourism base developed throughout the later half of the 20th century as Jax's population somewhat stalled out.  That leads to the Bay Area having a completely different feel outside of the inner core of Tampa and a radically different economy today.

Jacksonville is more like Tampa than it is Memphis, and it always has been. Nor is it a close call. A hundred years ago, we were the big dog in a state with less than one million residents. A population equal to Hillsborough and Pinellas, combined. Now, those two counties combined easily more than double us. Yes, the Bay Area is much larger but our areas remain very similar -- as long as you understand people are people, not accents (and that difference is exaggerated).

Plus, the growth in Jacksonville may only now be kicking into high gear. Memphis? Hell no.

I do love your dogged refusal to let go of that narrative, though. It's quite familiar. So many Floridians just don't know how to see this city, even when it's in plain sight 24/7/365.

Quote from: RattlerGator on April 20, 2017, 01:28:37 PM

I do love your dogged refusal to let go of that narrative, though.

LOL at this.

Quote from: RattlerGator on April 20, 2017, 01:28:37 PM
Jacksonville is more like Tampa than it is Memphis, and it always has been. Nor is it a close call. A hundred years ago, we were the big dog in a state with less than one million residents. A population equal to Hillsborough and Pinellas, combined.

Not true.  This is more North Florida folklore than anything else.  Never in Jax's history was it a lone "big dog" of dominance in Florida's history. In the 19th century, Pensacola and Key West were just as dominant or larger and Tampa was on our ass by the turn-of-the-century. Fueled by the cigar industry, Hillsborough had already surpassed Duval County in population by 1910.  In 1912, Pinellas was carved out of it.

1910
57,699 - Jacksonville
37,782 - Tampa*
4,127 - St. Petersburg

*- [West Tampa was a separate city until 1925.  One of the reasons Jax annexed Murray Hill in 1925 was to bump the city's population back over Tampa's after the Tampa-West Tampa merger.


1910
75,163 - Duval County
78,374 - Hillsborough County
Pinellas County (was a part of Hillsborough County until 1912)


1920
113,540 - Duval County
88,257 - Hillsborough County
28,265 - Pinellas County


1930
155,503 - Duval County
153,519 - Hillsborough County
62,149 - Pinellas County

The two urban areas basically stayed at a similar scale until the 1920s land boom catapulted Central and South Florida forever.  South Florida then received another economic boost due to Castro taking over Cuba in the 1960s, bumping it to another level above the Tampa area.  The mouse would then come and transform Orlando from a 1970s version of modern day Lakeland into the sprawling metropolis it is today.

QuoteNow, those two counties combined easily more than double us.

They doubled us over 50 years ago.

QuoteYes, the Bay Area is much larger but our areas remain very similar -- as long as you understand people are people, not accents (and that difference is exaggerated).

Pinellas County is roughly half the Bay Area.  We have very little in common economically and development-wise with Pinellas. I'll give you central Tampa, but I can make that argument for certain pockets of any city in the US that was of decent size between 1910 and 1930.  Then even with Tampa, it was always more economically diverse due to immigrants moving there specifically to work in the cigar industry.

QuotePlus, the growth in Jacksonville may only now be kicking into high gear. Memphis? Hell no.

Growth in Jax isn't kicking into high gear.  I equate high gear growth to what's taking place in Miami, Charlotte, Austin, Houston, Raleigh, etc. Here, the core city is still dropping in population just like the core city of many of it's early 20th century Midwestern and Sunbelt counterparts (ex. Memphis, Birmingham, Louisville, Dayton, etc.).  Fringe areas like St. Johns County are booming at a rate that suburban Memphis isn't.  So in another 20 years, we may not be of similar scale if the current trends continue.  On the other hand, Florida's other large cities are about 10 to 15 years ahead of us in terms of densifying.  Since college, I've seen St. Pete go from being called God's Waiting Room to having one of Florida's most vibrant downtowns and bicycle friendly landscapes.

QuoteI do love your dogged refusal to let go of that narrative, though. It's quite familiar. So many Floridians just don't know how to see this city, even when it's in plain sight 24/7/365.

I see, accept and embrace the city for what it is.  A second tier regional Sunbelt city with a diverse mix of neighborhoods that we still haven't found a way to better utilize, revitalize and promote.

Quote from: thelakelander on April 19, 2017, 09:56:25 AM
Haha, I still say that Memphis is pretty similar. Like Jax, it's a sprawling second tier regional mid-sized metropolitan area with a core city that covers hundreds of miles.  Like Jax, it's also a historic river city and early 20th century regional rail hub, leading to an economy once centered around maritime, manufacturing and distribution.  Like Jax, due to it's prominence in the South during Reconstruction, it's also a center of African-American culture and enlightenment in areas such as jazz and blues.  I'd argue that Jax and Memphis are closer in scale and share more similarities with one another than say Jax does with a recent Sunbelt sprawler like Orlando or Raleigh.

Yeah, I'm curious what happened to Memphis. When I was younger I found Memphis and Va. Beach as bigger flashier rivals to Jax (certainly livelier) but unlike Hampton Roads which growth seems to be stymied by the large military economy, bad air and highway connections, and higher state taxes, I can't put my finger how they're not benefiting from a state economic boom where Nashville, Knoxville, and Chatanooga flourishes. I understand airline mergers hit them hard like the bank/insurance mergers did Jax but can you imagine any thriving large city needing to shrink its city limits. 

Alot of these markets (ala Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York) have a multitude of adjoining cities, bolstering the market size. I'm very surprised that Jax is behind Birmingham in TV market size; Jax is growing much faster, larger metro population etc.   

Quote from: JaxJersey-licious on April 20, 2017, 11:28:08 PM

Quote from: thelakelander on April 19, 2017, 09:56:25 AM
Haha, I still say that Memphis is pretty similar. Like Jax, it's a sprawling second tier regional mid-sized metropolitan area with a core city that covers hundreds of miles.  Like Jax, it's also a historic river city and early 20th century regional rail hub, leading to an economy once centered around maritime, manufacturing and distribution.  Like Jax, due to it's prominence in the South during Reconstruction, it's also a center of African-American culture and enlightenment in areas such as jazz and blues.  I'd argue that Jax and Memphis are closer in scale and share more similarities with one another than say Jax does with a recent Sunbelt sprawler like Orlando or Raleigh.

Yeah, I'm curious what happened to Memphis. When I was younger I found Memphis and Va. Beach as bigger flashier rivals to Jax (certainly livelier) but unlike Hampton Roads which growth seems to be stymied by the large military economy, bad air and highway connections, and higher state taxes, I can't put my finger how they're not benefiting from a state economic boom where Nashville, Knoxville, and Chatanooga flourishes. I understand airline mergers hit them hard like the bank/insurance mergers did Jax but can you imagine any thriving large city needing to shrink its city limits. 

It probably would not hurt us to shrink our limits. Like Memphis, you can find pros and cons for not gobbling up as much land area as possible for sprawl. As far as Memphis goes, like St. Louis and New Orleans, it boomed around the Mississippi River and railroad expansion to the west.  Those days are long gone, so in a sense, it's like an old Midwestern city trapped in the south. Also, while most regions think regionally, there's still a lot of local competition and lack of regional coordination due to the metropolitan area being made up of three states.

QuoteWhy does the region perform so poorly? It's harder to do when you have so many state borders, which make the core city of Memphis an easy target to poach jobs. A study released last month concluded Memphis is one of the worst metro areas for 'job piracy.'

Instead of competing with nearby cities and counties, successful regions see and market themselves as such. This helps the whole region grow, instead of jobs just shifting from city to city in the same area. Some metro areas have even signed anti-piracy agreements prohibiting the solicitation of businesses located within the same metro area.

http://wreg.com/2014/08/18/why-memphis-economy-struggles-to-improve/

https://www.ft.com/content/edaa4c76-ca9d-11e5-a8ef-ea66e967dd44

Quote from: I-10east on April 21, 2017, 12:42:36 AM
Alot of these markets (ala Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York) have a multitude of adjoining cities, bolstering the market size. I'm very surprised that Jax is behind Birmingham in TV market size; Jax is growing much faster, larger metro population etc.

Birmingham's TV market covers a lot of small and mid sized towns.  Jax's market is highly concentrated to us and a few pockets of small populations elsewhere.

Ennis, your history comprehension ain't worth a damn and that Central Florida bias is shining through. Jacksonville was the clear leader. But . . . as I've indicated, please continue. And when Memphis one day gets a magnificent stretch of beach -- when proximity to a beach is the desired locale today of Americans all over much of this nation and warps any discussion about urban cores and their growth, or lack thereof -- we'll have another talk.

Only one problem; when the hell will Memphis be near a beach?

As for Hillsborough and Pinellas -- stop, just stop. They hate each other, they are very distinct urban areas, and only an urban planning slave to numbers wouldn't get that. Much as urban planners keep bitching and moaning about an American preference for distinctly non-dense housing, you see something that is not there and intuit things that are not true.

If you know how to take a step back and think about it, though, the renaissance of St. Pete only serves to prove *my* point about the relative lack of similarity between Jacksonville and Memphis. I suspect this is something Shad Khan has recognized and is the reason why he said he'd prefer to not drive the train on the Shipyards development but if no one else stepped up, he would move forward to do the development right.

Quote from: RattlerGator on April 24, 2017, 10:33:43 AM
Ennis, your history comprehension ain't worth a damn and that Central Florida bias is shining through. Jacksonville was the clear leader. But . . . as I've indicated, please continue. And when Memphis one day gets a magnificent stretch of beach -- when proximity to a beach is the desired locale today of Americans all over much of this nation and warps any discussion about urban cores and their growth, or lack thereof -- we'll have another talk.

Only one problem; when the hell will Memphis be near a beach?

As for Hillsborough and Pinellas -- stop, just stop. They hate each other, they are very distinct urban areas, and only an urban planning slave to numbers wouldn't get that. Much as urban planners keep bitching and moaning about an American preference for distinctly non-dense housing, you see something that is not there and intuit things that are not true.

If you know how to take a step back and think about it, though, the renaissance of St. Pete only serves to prove *my* point about the relative lack of similarity between Jacksonville and Memphis. I suspect this is something Shad Khan has recognized and is the reason why he said he'd prefer to not drive the train on the Shipyards development but if no one else stepped up, he would move forward to do the development right.

Jacksonville was probably the most prominent city in Florida in the late 19th and early 20th century, but at the time Florida was a backwater and Jax wasn't substantially more populous than Pensacola or Key West. Tampa caught up around the same time, and their wider region grew much faster, eventually leapfrogging us. Pinellas and Hillsborough are not "very distinct urban areas", they are nodes of the same metro area with a lot of economic and cultural crossover. It's not rare for people who live in Tampa, St. Pete, Clearwater, Brandon, etc., to work in one of the other communities. Other than being a lot more spread out, it's not notably different than people living in one Jax neighborhood or suburb and working in another.

What does tend to get lost in the folklore narrative is that Jacksonville did not become *less* prominent as other parts of the state grew, except by comparison to those. The reality is that Florida, including Jax, simply became much more prominent on a national scale. 100 years ago, no one would have compared Jax (or Tampa, for that matter) to a Memphis, New Orleans, or Buffalo, but today we're their peers.

Tacachale, are you unaware of the tug of war the Bay Area has been engaged in over that baseball team down there?

That fight, and it has been a very serious fight, is a proxy for the rather obvious FACT they are distinct urban areas. The St. Pete Times and Tampa Tribune could be referenced in case you're confused about this point. You do remember those two newspapers, don't you? Neither now exists but St. Pete won the newspaper fight (now cast as the Tampa Bay Times) and the baseball fight.

Tampa Bay, however, is not a city and never will be. Tampa is home to some great folks but, much like my friend Ennis, is a bit delusional when it comes to Florida history.  They desperately wanted to be the lead city in Florida. I mean, why do you think they idiotically named their local university the University of South Florida ? ? ?

Because they are delusional and thought their "name it and claim it" attitude could somehow block Miami from becoming the straw that stirs the drink in this state. Like Ennis, they were wrong. Who the hell thinks a town in West-central Florida is in South Florida? Tampans (or is that Tampons), that's who.

Quote from: RattlerGator on April 25, 2017, 10:02:38 AM
I mean, why do you think they idiotically named their local university the University of South Florida ? ? ?

I don't follow, RG. Not only is USF (arguably) in south Florida, it was the only state university in southern part of the state when it was opened and named. And I don't think it was named by the City of Tampa.

Perhaps it should've been named USWF - but then again, maybe UNF should've been named UNEF.

I'm not going to argue one way or the other about Tampa having a chip on its shoulder - but if you want to sustain your argument, I think you're going to need better evidence!

Rattler, are you seriously claiming I have Central Florida bias and then replying to Tacachale like that?

Urban areas have nothing to do with municipalities and individuals getting along.  If we had to agree on all 19 members of our council agreeing on everything, Jax would be multiple urban areas.  One of the reasons Memphis has fallen behind many of it's peers has been it's inability to get neighbors to stop competing against each other in favor of the greater good of the region.

Also, the naming of USF has nothing to do with anyone trying to be a lead city in Florida.  Back in 1956, it happened to be the southernmost university in the state university system.  Nothing sinister about that.

Quote from: Tacachale on April 24, 2017, 11:14:44 AM
What does tend to get lost in the folklore narrative is that Jacksonville did not become *less* prominent as other parts of the state grew, except by comparison to those. The reality is that Florida, including Jax, simply became much more prominent on a national scale. 100 years ago, no one would have compared Jax (or Tampa, for that matter) to a Memphis, New Orleans, or Buffalo, but today we're their peers.

True, one hundred years ago, our peers would have been places like Tacoma, Erie, Flint and Savannah.  Out of the list of cities in Jax's range back in 1920, a few like Nashville, Salt Lake City, Norfolk, Fort Worth, Kansas City and Oklahoma City have emerged while others like Utica, Canto and Reading have not.

https://www.census.gov/population/www/documentation/twps0027/tab15.txt

Quote from: RattlerGator on April 25, 2017, 10:02:38 AM
Tacachale, are you unaware of the tug of war the Bay Area has been engaged in over that baseball team down there?

That fight, and it has been a very serious fight, is a proxy for the rather obvious FACT they are distinct urban areas. The St. Pete Times and Tampa Tribune could be referenced in case you're confused about this point. You do remember those two newspapers, don't you? Neither now exists but St. Pete won the newspaper fight (now cast as the Tampa Bay Times) and the baseball fight.

Tampa Bay, however, is not a city and never will be. Tampa is home to some great folks but, much like my friend Ennis, is a bit delusional when it comes to Florida history.  They desperately wanted to be the lead city in Florida. I mean, why do you think they idiotically named their local university the University of South Florida ? ? ?

Because they are delusional and thought their "name it and claim it" attitude could somehow block Miami from becoming the straw that stirs the drink in this state. Like Ennis, they were wrong. Who the hell thinks a town in West-central Florida is in South Florida? Tampans (or is that Tampons), that's who.

You appear to be confused over what a "metropolitan area" is.

I am aware of Tampa Bay's "baseball fight". It's not any different than other metro areas have faced when different local communities have vied to have their area's move there. This happened recently when the Atlanta Braves left the City of Atlanta for the suburb of Cumberland. Just as that team didn't become the Cumberland Braves, the Tampa Bay Rays will be "Tampa Bay" wherever they play in Tampa Bay Area. Because it's the same metro area.

The Tampa Tribune and St. Pete/Tampa Bay Times started out in the early days when Tampa and St. Pete really were more distinct communities than they are today. But for decades, they were were two newspapers that served the same market and competed with each other for readers. When the Tampa Bay Times bought out the Tribune, this is the quote they gave: "The continued competition between the newspapers was threatening to both... There are very few cities that are able to sustain more than one daily newspaper, and the Tampa Bay region is not among them."

While they are distinct cities, they are nodes within a wider metropolitan area with a lot of synergy between them

Yeah, Tampa and St. Petersburg are no different than Lakeland and Winter Haven in Polk County, Daytona and Deltona in Volusia or Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach in South Florida.  In the case of the Hampton Roads MSA, Virginia Beach is the larger city but it's actually of suburb of Norfolk, which is essentially the MSA's historic urban core. Yet, Virginia has independent cities, which is another animal altogether.  Who knows, if Jax had not merged with Duval in 1968, perhaps the Southside would have incorporated to be Jax's version of Norfolk's Virginia Beach. 

Quote from: thelakelander on April 25, 2017, 03:07:22 PM

Quote from: Tacachale on April 24, 2017, 11:14:44 AM
What does tend to get lost in the folklore narrative is that Jacksonville did not become *less* prominent as other parts of the state grew, except by comparison to those. The reality is that Florida, including Jax, simply became much more prominent on a national scale. 100 years ago, no one would have compared Jax (or Tampa, for that matter) to a Memphis, New Orleans, or Buffalo, but today we're their peers.

True, one hundred years ago, our peers would have been places like Tacoma, Erie, Flint and Savannah.  Out of the list of cities in Jax's range back in 1920, a few like Nashville, Salt Lake City, Norfolk, Fort Worth, Kansas City and Oklahoma City have emerged while others like Utica, Canto and Reading have not.

https://www.census.gov/population/www/documentation/twps0027/tab15.txt

Fun fact, in James Weldon Johnson's novel The Autobiography of an Ex-Colored Man, written in 1912, the narrator describes Jacksonville as a small town, and names Richmond and Nashville as two cities that it doesn't compare to in terms of the "society phase of life" and the community of "educated and well-to-do" African Americans. Today, we're those cities' peer.

He describes Jacksonville as a comparatively tolerant place for African-Americans and gets a good job in a cigar factory, where "the color line is not drawn". It's where the narrator is finally able to get his bearings and learn his heritage. This more or less reflects how JWJ himself felt about the city before it turned into a "one hundred percent cracker town" by the 1930s.

http://etc.usf.edu/lit2go/64/the-autobiography-of-an-ex-colored-man/1152/chapter-5/

Quote from: Adam White on April 25, 2017, 03:00:52 PM

Quote from: RattlerGator on April 25, 2017, 10:02:38 AM
I mean, why do you think they idiotically named their local university the University of South Florida ? ? ?

I don't follow, RG. Not only is USF (arguably) in south Florida, it was the only state university in southern part of the state when it was opened and named. And I don't think it was named by the City of Tampa.

Perhaps it should've been named USWF - but then again, maybe UNF should've been named UNEF.

I'm not going to argue one way or the other about Tampa having a chip on its shoulder - but if you want to sustain your argument, I think you're going to need better evidence!

The Board of Regents named it USF, not the city of Tampa. I don't even think it was technically in Tampa at that time. However, USF was the fourth state university behind UF, FSU, and FAMU, and was founded only eight years following the founding of FSU in 1948 from the Florida State Women's College. They should have created a naming system similar to North Carolina, Texas, or California, and named it the University of Florida-Tampa (UFT) instead of the directional college names which became tricky after awhile.

Quote from: FlaBoy on April 25, 2017, 04:09:35 PM

Quote from: Adam White on April 25, 2017, 03:00:52 PM

Quote from: RattlerGator on April 25, 2017, 10:02:38 AM
I mean, why do you think they idiotically named their local university the University of South Florida ? ? ?

I don't follow, RG. Not only is USF (arguably) in south Florida, it was the only state university in southern part of the state when it was opened and named. And I don't think it was named by the City of Tampa.

Perhaps it should've been named USWF - but then again, maybe UNF should've been named UNEF.

I'm not going to argue one way or the other about Tampa having a chip on its shoulder - but if you want to sustain your argument, I think you're going to need better evidence!

The Board of Regents named it USF, not the city of Tampa. I don't even think it was technically in Tampa at that time. However, USF was the fourth state university behind UF, FSU, and FAMU, and was founded only eight years following the founding of FSU in 1948 from the Florida State Women's College. They should have created a naming system similar to North Carolina, Texas, or California, and named it the University of Florida-Tampa (UFT) instead of the directional college names which became tricky after awhile.

The locals' suggestion was "Tampa Bay University of Florida". There were a bunch of other bad names, but at least the others weren't so confusing. If it wasn't the first expansion school it never would've been named "South Florida".

(http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/566091/sptimes-usfname_medium.jpg)

http://www.thedailystampede.com/2011/8/24/2381670/heres-why-its-the-university-of-south-florida

Quote from: FlaBoy on April 25, 2017, 04:09:35 PM

Quote from: Adam White on April 25, 2017, 03:00:52 PM

Quote from: RattlerGator on April 25, 2017, 10:02:38 AM
I mean, why do you think they idiotically named their local university the University of South Florida ? ? ?

I don't follow, RG. Not only is USF (arguably) in south Florida, it was the only state university in southern part of the state when it was opened and named. And I don't think it was named by the City of Tampa.

Perhaps it should've been named USWF - but then again, maybe UNF should've been named UNEF.

I'm not going to argue one way or the other about Tampa having a chip on its shoulder - but if you want to sustain your argument, I think you're going to need better evidence!

The Board of Regents named it USF, not the city of Tampa. I don't even think it was technically in Tampa at that time. However, USF was the fourth state university behind UF, FSU, and FAMU, and was founded only eight years following the founding of FSU in 1948 from the Florida State Women's College. They should have created a naming system similar to North Carolina, Texas, or California, and named it the University of Florida-Tampa (UFT) instead of the directional college names which became tricky after awhile.

I figured it was the board of regents or someone in Tallahassee. I guess if there had been a state university in Miami or thereabouts before this, that one would've ended up being USF.

I like Tampa. Not sure if I prefer it to Jax, but I lived there for six months once upon a time and I really enjoyed it.

Quote from: Tacachale on April 24, 2017, 11:14:44 AM

Quote from: RattlerGator on April 24, 2017, 10:33:43 AM
Ennis, your history comprehension ain't worth a damn and that Central Florida bias is shining through. Jacksonville was the clear leader. But . . . as I've indicated, please continue. And when Memphis one day gets a magnificent stretch of beach -- when proximity to a beach is the desired locale today of Americans all over much of this nation and warps any discussion about urban cores and their growth, or lack thereof -- we'll have another talk.

Only one problem; when the hell will Memphis be near a beach?

As for Hillsborough and Pinellas -- stop, just stop. They hate each other, they are very distinct urban areas, and only an urban planning slave to numbers wouldn't get that. Much as urban planners keep bitching and moaning about an American preference for distinctly non-dense housing, you see something that is not there and intuit things that are not true.

If you know how to take a step back and think about it, though, the renaissance of St. Pete only serves to prove *my* point about the relative lack of similarity between Jacksonville and Memphis. I suspect this is something Shad Khan has recognized and is the reason why he said he'd prefer to not drive the train on the Shipyards development but if no one else stepped up, he would move forward to do the development right.

Jacksonville was probably the most prominent city in Florida in the late 19th and early 20th century, but at the time Florida was a backwater and Jax wasn't substantially more populous than Pensacola or Key West. Tampa caught up around the same time, and their wider region grew much faster, eventually leapfrogging us. Pinellas and Hillsborough are not "very distinct urban areas", they are nodes of the same metro area with a lot of economic and cultural crossover. It's not rare for people who live in Tampa, St. Pete, Clearwater, Brandon, etc., to work in one of the other communities. Other than being a lot more spread out, it's not notably different than people living in one Jax neighborhood or suburb and working in another.

What does tend to get lost in the folklore narrative is that Jacksonville did not become *less* prominent as other parts of the state grew, except by comparison to those. The reality is that Florida, including Jax, simply became much more prominent on a national scale. 100 years ago, no one would have compared Jax (or Tampa, for that matter) to a Memphis, New Orleans, or Buffalo, but today we're their peers.

Rattler, I do believe there is a lot of division in the Tampa Bay area which has held them back in many ways due to the petty rivalries between Tampa and St. Pete. It all goes back to their secession from Hillsborough back in 1912 due to the lack of roads being built in St. Pete. Pinellas was very proud when they were larger than Hillsborough for that 20-30 year period before the northern suburbs of Tampa emerged in the New Tampa/Lutz area that now pushes into Pasco County (a county which is larger than St. John's, Nassau, and Putnam counties combined to put it into perspective) along with Brandon. The old timers still lack the "unity in the community" but the younger generation really doesn't see much of a difference down there in comparison. If Jax Beach is the same community with the city of Jacksonville, St. Pete is 25 minutes (in the same way) from Tampa, literally separated by water and a bridge.

Likewise, Florida was completely the sticks until the 1920's land boom. But in 1940, the state was STILL the smallest in the old confederacy in the South. By 1960, it was second largest to Texas. That is mind blowing and shows the incredible emergence of this state on a world wide scale in such a short time (thanks air conditioning). In 1930, Jacksonville was the largest city in the smallest state in the South much like Little Rock, AR, or Jackson, MS, are today. Jacksonville will never catch Hillsborough again, or Orange, or their MSAs, but the whole state of Florida continues to grow and most likely Jacksonville will grow right along with the state, making us a major player into the future. I would surmise our max MSA level will be around 30th ranked in another 50 years, firmly behind Tampa Bay, Orlando, and Miami, and right above Ft. Myers-Naples which continues to boom.

Quote from: FlaBoy on April 25, 2017, 04:44:06 PM
Jacksonville will never catch Hillsborough again, or Orange, or their MSAs, but the whole state of Florida continues to grow and most likely Jacksonville will grow right along with the state, making us a major player into the future. I would surmise our max MSA level will be around 30th ranked in another 50 years, firmly behind Tampa Bay, Orlando, and Miami, and right above Ft. Myers-Naples which continues to boom.

I disagree with this. Of course nobody knows what the future holds, but I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility that 50 years from now Jacksonville will have a larger MSA than Tampa or Orlando. City populations in the US have grown (and shrunk) very rapidly at times. Just look at Jacksonville from 1960 to 1970, the population increased by 163%. I'm not saying it will happen, just that it could.

Quote from: remc86007 on April 25, 2017, 05:47:31 PM

Quote from: FlaBoy on April 25, 2017, 04:44:06 PM
Jacksonville will never catch Hillsborough again, or Orange, or their MSAs, but the whole state of Florida continues to grow and most likely Jacksonville will grow right along with the state, making us a major player into the future. I would surmise our max MSA level will be around 30th ranked in another 50 years, firmly behind Tampa Bay, Orlando, and Miami, and right above Ft. Myers-Naples which continues to boom.

I disagree with this. Of course nobody knows what the future holds, but I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility that 50 years from now Jacksonville will have a larger MSA than Tampa or Orlando. City populations in the US have grown (and shrunk) very rapidly at times. Just look at Jacksonville from 1960 to 1970, the population increased by 163%. I'm not saying it will happen, just that it could.

That was due to consolidation though. There have certainly been some big booms. We were talking about Pinellas earlier. They actually saw that type of growth between 1950 and 1960 with their population rising from 159,249 to 374,665 which is a 135% increase. I also think that was not good for Pinellas. Unless they find some immense reserves of natural gas and gold mixed together below us in western Duval like North Dakota was seeing in growth, I don't think we will see numbers like that around here ever again. I believe, right now, Hillsborough by itself is larger than Duval, Nassau, and St. John's Counties put together with plenty of room to grow to its east and south. Pinellas is done growing for the most part however since it is built out.

Quote from: Tacachale on April 25, 2017, 03:47:45 PM

Quote from: thelakelander on April 25, 2017, 03:07:22 PM

Quote from: Tacachale on April 24, 2017, 11:14:44 AM
What does tend to get lost in the folklore narrative is that Jacksonville did not become *less* prominent as other parts of the state grew, except by comparison to those. The reality is that Florida, including Jax, simply became much more prominent on a national scale. 100 years ago, no one would have compared Jax (or Tampa, for that matter) to a Memphis, New Orleans, or Buffalo, but today we're their peers.

True, one hundred years ago, our peers would have been places like Tacoma, Erie, Flint and Savannah.  Out of the list of cities in Jax's range back in 1920, a few like Nashville, Salt Lake City, Norfolk, Fort Worth, Kansas City and Oklahoma City have emerged while others like Utica, Canto and Reading have not.

https://www.census.gov/population/www/documentation/twps0027/tab15.txt

Fun fact, in James Weldon Johnson's novel The Autobiography of an Ex-Colored Man, written in 1912, the narrator describes Jacksonville as a small town, and names Richmond and Nashville as two cities that it doesn't compare to in terms of the "society phase of life" and the community of "educated and well-to-do" African Americans. Today, we're those cities' peer.

JWJ would be correct.  When I first started purposely visiting cities for a planning perspective, I used the link below as a decent source for determining the pre-automobile built density of a city's core:

https://www.census.gov/population/www/documentation/twps0027/twps0027.html

A century has passed but it's still pretty damn accurate if you want an idea of what a city feels like today at street level.  Back in the early 20th century, both Richmond and Nashville were significantly larger than Jax, in terms of population, size and density (well Richmond was). 

1910 Census data:

https://www.census.gov/population/www/documentation/twps0027/tab14.txt

Richmond -- 127,628 -- 10 square miles -- 12,763 residents per square mile

Nashville -- 110,364 -- 17.1 square miles -- 6,454 residents per square mile

Jacksonville -- 57,699 -- 9.3 square miles -- 6,204 residents per square mile


If you're looking for urban cores with old school pedestrian scale density, that link is a great starting point to identify some decent urban cores most overlook.  Even today, although we've surpassed Richmond in overall population, Richmond still has a "big city" feel at street level.

(https://photos.smugmug.com/Cities/Richmond-March-2017/i-6433wht/0/c7765009/L/20170321_143637-L.jpg)

(https://photos.smugmug.com/Cities/Richmond-March-2017/i-khJ3Pgg/0/40dc499a/L/20170321_143141-L.jpg)

(https://photos.smugmug.com/Cities/Richmond-March-2017/i-VBC5FXF/0/6b1ece84/L/20170321_142148-L.jpg)

(https://photos.smugmug.com/Cities/Richmond-March-2017/i-zsVk3PN/0/8b4ca0ae/L/20170321_145909-L.jpg)

(https://photos.smugmug.com/Cities/Richmond-March-2017/i-F7w8Qns/0/236114c6/L/20170321_151712-L.jpg)

Because its density rivaled cities like Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and St. Louis back in the day, it's still loaded with great urban bones for a Sunbelt city.  Every city is unique in its own way and if I were a Richmond advocate, I'd be promoting and marketing its core in the same manner that Charleston and Savannah have done in recent decades.  It's got a "sense of place" that rapidly growing Sunbelt sprawlers will never have, no matter how big they get.

QuoteHe describes Jacksonville as a comparatively tolerant place for African-Americans and gets a good job in a cigar factory, where "the color line is not drawn". It's where the narrator is finally able to get his bearings and learn his heritage. This more or less reflects how JWJ himself felt about the city before it turned into a "one hundred percent cracker town" by the 1930s.

http://etc.usf.edu/lit2go/64/the-autobiography-of-an-ex-colored-man/1152/chapter-5/

I've always felt this period of Jacksonville's history is one long lost and forgotten.  I'm still shocked by the amount of exposure Northeast Florida had in DC's new African-American museum.  Like it would be to Richmond's benefit to work with it's early 20th century pedestrian scale urban landscape, it would be to Jacksonville's economic benefit to expose its cultural contributions from the Reconstruction era and salvage/work with what's left of the remaining neighborhoods and building stock still standing before we lose more of it permanently. 

Quote from: remc86007 on April 25, 2017, 05:47:31 PMI disagree with this. Of course nobody knows what the future holds, but I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility that 50 years from now Jacksonville will have a larger MSA than Tampa or Orlando. City populations in the US have grown (and shrunk) very rapidly at times. Just look at Jacksonville from 1960 to 1970, the population increased by 163%. I'm not saying it will happen, just that it could.

I doubt NE Florida ever catches the Central Florida metros in our lifetimes.  If anything, you're going to end up seeing the entire corridor (excluding the Green Swamp) fill in as Sarasota/Bradenton (702k MSA population), Lakeland (602k MSA population) and Deltona/Daytona (495k MSA population) continue to grow and connect with their larger neighbors.

Quote from: FlaBoy on April 25, 2017, 04:44:06 PM
Rattler, I do believe there is a lot of division in the Tampa Bay area which has held them back in many ways due to the petty rivalries between Tampa and St. Pete. It all goes back to their secession from Hillsborough back in 1912 due to the lack of roads being built in St. Pete. Pinellas was very proud when they were larger than Hillsborough for that 20-30 year period before the northern suburbs of Tampa emerged in the New Tampa/Lutz area that now pushes into Pasco County (a county which is larger than St. John's, Nassau, and Putnam counties combined to put it into perspective) along with Brandon. The old timers still lack the "unity in the community" but the younger generation really doesn't see much of a difference down there in comparison.

Being only 85 miles east, I think Orlando's growth helped pull the Bay area, kicking and screaming, to work together more as a region.  I remember growing up in Polk County, it's 17 municipalities would fit each other to annex or extend water/sewer lines to unincorporated plots of land marked for new development.  The weird shape of the cities in the map below, pretty much explains the annexation grabs of the 1990s:

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d6/Polk_county_with_background%2C_Freeways.jpg/1280px-Polk_county_with_background%2C_Freeways.jpg)
Take note of the fingers stretching out from Winter Haven and Lake Wales to get their piece of the pie of a mall and surrounding development sprouting up between them in 1996.  The rush to gobble up as much "turf" along the I-4/Polk Parkway corridor has also resulted in some interesting annexations by Lakeland and Auburndale.


Realizing regions have better overall economic success when their communities work together, Polk has gone on to become a major logistics hub, taking advantage of it's centralized location to go head-to-head with Tampa and Orlando despite them both being significantly larger.  Now cities compete more on quality-of-life enhancements to separate themselves from their adjacent neighbors as opposed to coming to blows over who's going to land the next Amazon fulfillment center or Fortune 500 company. A part of me believes the negative side of Jax's consolidation is that it really has no nearby competitor to challenge it to step up its game, when it comes to quality-of-life.

Quote from: FlaBoy on April 25, 2017, 06:16:23 PM
That was due to consolidation though. There have certainly been some big booms. We were talking about Pinellas earlier. They actually saw that type of growth between 1950 and 1960 with their population rising from 159,249 to 374,665 which is a 135% increase. I also think that was not good for Pinellas. Unless they find some immense reserves of natural gas and gold mixed together below us in western Duval like North Dakota was seeing in growth, I don't think we will see numbers like that around here ever again. I believe, right now, Hillsborough by itself is larger than Duval, Nassau, and St. John's Counties put together with plenty of room to grow to its east and south. Pinellas is done growing for the most part however since it is built out.

As the Lakeland and Sarasota/Bradenton areas continue to growh and phosphate continues to move south, I expect Hillsborough's growth to push east of I-75 and the Brandon area.  However, I find Pinellas to have the most interesting future. Built out since the 1970s, it literally has no option but to encourage infill redevelopment and higher densities. That realization has literally changed St. Petersburg's vibe since the early 1990s.

Haha, FlaBoy, you are right, consolidation didn't occur to me when I was looking at the numbers. About Pinellas, I remember laughing a month or two ago when I read that more people are dying there than being born.

The Tampa Metro is much older than Orlando and Jax. Also, I wonder what will happen when the original owners of cookie-cutter houses in sprawling Florida developments start to die out en masse? It's easy to find buyers for new construction, but what about a 40 year old, cheaply made house with no character that used to be in a good school district and is a 10+ minute drive from the front of the development?

Quote from: remc86007 on April 25, 2017, 07:10:07 PM
Haha, FlaBoy, you are right, consolidation didn't occur to me when I was looking at the numbers. About Pinellas, I remember laughing a month or two ago when I read that more people are dying there than being born.

St. Petersburg used to be known as God's Waiting Room, due to the large retiree population that Pinellas used to be known for.  Since it's been built out for decades, I suspect more people have been dying than being born there for quit a while.  Whatever growth is happening there now is coming from infill, redevelopment and new people moving in.

QuoteThe Tampa Metro is much older than Orlando and Jax.

Jax is a few decades older than Tampa. Tampa's development took off once the railroad and cigar industry came to town in the 1880s. By the turn of the century, the Tampa and Jax areas were pretty much the same size.  The areas south of us really took off after the 1920s Florida land boom and suburban sprawl after WWII.

QuoteAlso, I wonder what will happen when the original owners of cookie-cutter houses in sprawling Florida developments start to die out en masse? It's easy to find buyers for new construction, but what about a 40 year old, cheaply made house with no character that used to be in a good school district and is a 10+ minute drive from the front of the development?

You can see this all across the country.  In Jax, your examples would be Arlington, Cedar Hills and Englewood.  It's hard to predict the future but I would not be surprised to one day see 1950s era ranch style neighborhoods, like these, become valued because of their housing stock.  If that happens, it would be the same development pattern that older neighborhoods like Springfield have gone through.  I think we'll have more trouble with 1980s/1990s style "one way in/out" subdivisions that line aging congested sprawling corridors like Blanding.

Quote from: thelakelander on April 25, 2017, 08:14:21 PM

Quote from: remc86007 on April 25, 2017, 07:10:07 PM
Also, I wonder what will happen when the original owners of cookie-cutter houses in sprawling Florida developments start to die out en masse? It's easy to find buyers for new construction, but what about a 40 year old, cheaply made house with no character that used to be in a good school district and is a 10+ minute drive from the front of the development?

You can see this all across the country.  In Jax, your examples would be Arlington, Cedar Hills and Englewood.  It's hard to predict the future but I would not be surprised to one day see 1950s era ranch style neighborhoods, like these, become valued because of their housing stock.  If that happens, it would be the same development pattern that older neighborhoods like Springfield have gone through.  I think we'll have more trouble with 1980s/1990s style "one way in/out" subdivisions that line aging congested sprawling corridors like Blanding.

I would suggest starting at Eagle Landing and driving out of the subdivision down Argyle Forest Blvd. towards Blanding.  It's like a time tunnel.  The trees get older and larger, the houses get smaller and more unkempt.  Even the commercial downsizes from massive outdoor mall, to a Publix based shopping center to strip malls and then back to the the start again at the Blanding Publix.

Quote from: thelakelander on April 25, 2017, 07:00:07 PM

Quote from: FlaBoy on April 25, 2017, 06:16:23 PM
That was due to consolidation though. There have certainly been some big booms. We were talking about Pinellas earlier. They actually saw that type of growth between 1950 and 1960 with their population rising from 159,249 to 374,665 which is a 135% increase. I also think that was not good for Pinellas. Unless they find some immense reserves of natural gas and gold mixed together below us in western Duval like North Dakota was seeing in growth, I don't think we will see numbers like that around here ever again. I believe, right now, Hillsborough by itself is larger than Duval, Nassau, and St. John's Counties put together with plenty of room to grow to its east and south. Pinellas is done growing for the most part however since it is built out.

As the Lakeland and Sarasota/Bradenton areas continue to growh and phosphate continues to move south, I expect Hillsborough's growth to push east of I-75 and the Brandon area.  However, I find Pinellas to have the most interesting future. Built out since the 1970s, it literally has no option but to encourage infill redevelopment and higher densities. That realization has literally changed St. Petersburg's vibe since the early 1990s.

Well, I think that is a little early. Pinellas wasn't really built out until around 2000. North Pinellas in Palm Harbor, East Lake, and Oldsmar was still seeing development throughout the 1990's. In about 2000, you started to see that development move up to Trinity in Pasco. This development was not as dense though as the previous small retirement homes that clutter the peninsula today. In 2002, downtown St. Pete was as dead as downtown Jacksonville is today. I remember going down there and there being vagrants everywhere walking up to me. Baywalk was brand new almost and was dead in 2002. Channelside did much much better back then. The first time I really remember the momentum in the city was about 2006. You could feel things kind of changing at the height of the boom, not unlike Jax back then. The big difference was St. Pete's momentum continued even through the Great Recession.

They also did a great job with Beach and Central with the new retail built and the natural beauty downtown St. Pete offers. It took those strips to reinvigorate much of St. Pete's restaurant and bar scene. By 2010, the whole city's feel had changed down there. It really was that quick a turnaround. 2002 there was nothing. 2010, the restaurant and nigh life scenes were great. Baywalk was still struggling but it was around that time that Bill Edwards bought it and started to redo it. They did all of this with very few professionals working downtown since Gateway has most of the jobs in the actual city of St. Pete. Most of the growth has been in downtown St. Pete but also a lot of suburban type apartment complexes in Gateway and a lot of new condo towers on the beach in places like Sand Key.

Barring major changes, Duval county population should pass Pinellas county between 2020 and 2025.  I don't foresee Duval passing any others anytime soon.

Quote from: Jim on April 26, 2017, 12:38:32 PM
Barring major changes, Duval county population should pass Pinellas county between 2020 and 2025.  I don't foresee Duval passing any others anytime soon.

Yes, most growth in TB has been elsewhere. As said above, Pinellas is largely built out now and increasingly expensive, and it seems unlikely that tens of thousands of new homes will be built there with cheaper land elsewhere. It seems more likely that property values will continue rising across Pinellas as the demand continues.

I really don't want to insult y'all [any more than I already have  ;-)  ] but you're being incredibly dense.

No, Tampa could *not* be reasonably thought of as South Florida in the 1950s -- or didn't y'all notice that nugget in the self-serving USF fansite article? "The Cabinet was flooded with protests from legislators, county and city officials on the East Coast saying Tampa was not in South Florida." Hmmmmm. Really now? You don't say!?!

So . . . do y'all even read? Where do you think those "East Coast" legislators and government officials were from? South Florida, perhaps? Why in the hell would some publication identify them as "East Coast" officials when no damn body in Florida identified people from the protesting region that way?

So, hell no -- Tampa could *not* arguably be said to be in South Florida at that time, and real South Floridians made that obvious point very clear.

And hell no, this wasn't decided in Tallahassee. Who the hell do you think the Governor, the Attorney General, and the Superintendent of Public Instruction were listening to when deciding on that name? Tampa people, dammit, jealously trying to claim something that was not theirs to claim. In 1960 Dade County was our largest county by far, more than twice as large as the 2nd largest county -- which happened to be Duval, Ennis. Duval.

If you think about my overall point you'll see the truth of my assertion by simply asking one simple question: why would the third public institution for white folks in this state be placed in Tampa . . . when the population center of the state was already way down in Miami? Hell, Broward was damn near as large as Hillsborough and Palm Beach was already more than half as large. No damn body was confused about where South Florida was located, and populated.

Don't be dense, now. We could talk a bit further about the racial / Yankee context applicable in this competition that y'all seem a bit ignorant of (did you know UF is the largest Jewish university in the nation? Because of South Florida?) but, do preach on Ennis.

LOL!