One report from the OECD estimates 9% while another estimates 47 percent of jobs could be severely impacted by artificial intelligence.
http://arstechnica.com/business/2016/12/federal-report-ai-could-threaten-up-to-47-percent-of-jobs-in-two-decades/ (http://arstechnica.com/business/2016/12/federal-report-ai-could-threaten-up-to-47-percent-of-jobs-in-two-decades/)
QuoteBoth of these studies of jobs at risk due to automation, however, agreed that lower-paying jobs are at the highest risk. The study by Frey and Osbourne, for example, found that 83 percent of jobs paying $20 or less an hour would be pressured by AI, compared to just 4 percent of jobs paying $40 an hour or more. "If labor productivity increases do not translate into wage increases, then the large economic gains brought about by AI could accrue to a select few," the report says. "Instead of broadly shared prosperity for workers and consumers, this might push towards reduced competition and increased wealth inequality."
Those who are unprepared could potentially be left behind while those who have higher skills could soldier on, thus increasing the wealth disparity.
QuoteThe critical question that researchers cannot answer is whether job growth, which traditionally has offset the loss of 6 percent of US jobs every quarter due to downsizing or closing businesses, can likewise absorb losses due to automation. Anticipating a potential wave of job losses due to automation, the report advocates strategies to educate and prepare new workers, assist those who lose jobs, and take steps to mitigate increased income inequality.
So more education seems to be the best method to overcome the threat of AI. Additionally, If we brings more manufacturing back to the US, and they end up being automated, then did we really achieve anything? Is there worth in bringing more manufacturing to the US if it doesn't increase jobs due to automation?
I don't think we'll be looking at something as high as 47% but somewhere in between the 9 and 47%, which still impacts a lot of people.
What is y'alls thought on this? Do you think AI and automation is a threat to the workforce? Do you think we should just let the economy run its course and wait for it to equalize or should some form of intervention be done? Are there any policies that you think could help those impacted or limit the effects of AI?
I wish there were a way that made sense where people could use their personal robots as their replacements in the workforce - it would never fly because businesses would just use their own for cheaper, like they already do.