I've only been a Mandarin resident for a few years, but with the construction boom in Northern St. Johns county and 795 opening up in the near future, I wonder what the future of Mandarin will hold, South Mandarin in particular.
Considering a new town center type development is in the works for Racetrack road & 95 area I wonder if the Mandarin area will decline at a faster pace as people continue to move further south and into newer homes. Will the traffic shift from San Jose to 9B/795 causing businesses to shut down or scaleback on San Jose in years to come?
Or, is the area too established to fall into too deep of a decline? Just speculation of course, I know there's no definitive answer. Just curious what others think.
Mandarin's public schools are just as good, if not better, than anything Northern St. Johns County has to offer. That, along with being on the river and its mature and attractive natural landscape provide it with a base of amenities that will limit the type of decline that other suburban areas like Englewood, Emerson and Baymeadows have had to overcome.
Thanks Lake. Home values have gone up at a good clip in the area and i'm weighing my options. Some long-time Mandarin residents say the area is already in decline, but being from the Englewood area myself, i'm not seeing it, except for maybe some areas on the northern fringe.
I drive the length of Racetrack Road 2-3 times a week now and it's just wild seeing the development taking place. It's fairly quiet out here and the commute into downtown is brutal during rush hour, but overall it's a good place if you're settled w/kids.
I had to do some field work for a client a couple of weeks ago that had me reviewing master planned developments in Clay and Northern St Johns. I knew a lot of construction was taking place out there but I was still blown away with the amount of stuff being built along Race Track and CR 210.
Yeah, there's a lot of development in Northern St.Johns, but I don't think Mandarin is going to decline in any way. The reason a lot of development is happening in Northern St. Johns, and not Mandarin, is because Mandarin is already built up. There is not a lot of space for new development from undeveloped tracts.
If anyone would want to build in Mandarin they'd have to buy parcels that are already developed. There are some large lots and some agricultural looking parcels in south Mandarin, but I imagine that those properties are way more expensive than undeveloped silvicultural lands.
I think there is only one or two housing developments being built in Mandarin right now.
The only real commercial areas is on San Jose and it's pretty much all full of stuff. The next big development might be whatever happens to the K-Mart.
Mandarin is not declining. There is all sort of new building happening along the last couple miles of San Jose in Duval. If anything Mandarin is going to experience a boom due to people wanting slightly cheaper housing just north of the border of SJC. Think Bartram Park. Old St. Aug road has a lot of land.
Anyway RIP to the Northwestern St. Johns County I grew up in. I think in a decade or two the people who know the place I'm talking about and hopefully those responsible for allowing such intensive development will realize the err of their ways.
RIP to the quiet way of life there now as well with 9B and The St. Johns Town Center 2: Bigger, Badder, and Closer to Home
I agree, Mandarin will not decline in any way. It's the wealthiest part of the county, and second in NEFla (after Ponte vedra).
Mandarin has multi acre waterfront estates that areas on the trout river never had. I think it will stay as the wealthiest part of the county.
Good feedback. Basically i'm debating if it'll be time to sell in a few years and buy new construction before the Racetrack area is built up, as living at this particular part of the city isn't any less convenient then living off the eastern part of Racetrack. I'm just unsure what effects of SJTC2 (that was great btw) and the new interstate would have on the area. Overall it doesn't seem likely and as lastdaysoffla said, the (sort of) affordable housing out here might keep drawing people to the area.
Mandarin will, over time, along with all of Hendricks/San Jose's run from the South Bank to the County Line, become an extension of San Marco. Not in terms of walk ability or architecture, but in terms of being viewed as "close in" vs. the ever further developments extending well into St. Johns, Clay and Nassau counties. I know lots of people driving 25 miles or more each way to work from the outlying counties.
As the surrounding counties get built out at far higher residential densities (houses as close as 10 feet from each other on postage stamp size lots in giant master planned communities stretching over 1,000's of endless acres designed to maximize single family home density with little non-retail businesses in between) than most of Duval, particularly those areas along Roosevelt and San Jose, where lots are bigger and the river limits development to one side, the commute times will far exceed anything just about inside Duval's borders.
Over time, I expect Jacksonville will finally follow well established patterns in other comparable to larger cities where demand for close-in and decent neighborhoods will drive much of Duval housing appreciation at a higher clip than the surrounding counties. To some extent, Riverside and San Marco are already showing these signs. Meanwhile, if you live in St. Johns, for example, you will be competing with a heavy and long term stream of mass produced cookie cutter builder homes competing with your aging home you bought new today. That doesn't bode well for your appreciation. I see much of the non-river, non-intracoastal and non-ocean areas in St. Johns trending more toward the Arlington or Blanding's of tomorrow, a few decades from now, when the bloom is off the rose: lots of aging non-distinctive housing and geography and outrageous traffic.
By the way, I have seen many examples already of people moving back into Duval from St. Johns and even, to be closer in, from the Beaches (see golfer Jim Furyk's move to San Marco). And, if you have kids in Duval's private schools, work downtown, have a deep interest in the arts, place a high dollar value on your time (e.g professionals and executives) or make heavy use of the airport, you will most likely be at the head of the line. And those persons are likely above average in their ability to pay up for housing.
One other observation: Like most of Jax, the neighborhood names today cover large geographic areas with multiple stories within. Mandarin today appears to be from Baymeadows to Julington Creek and from the river to I-95. On that basis, there are big differences in housing, ranging from Mandarin Road along the river (true Mandarin to old timers) to Old St. Augustine Road stretching to Flagler Center. Thus, a total generalization is not really appropriate and you must be well informed about the exact neighborhoods you are making comparisons between. Just look at Riverside. You can go from million dollar homes on the river to very low rent less than a mile away. As they say, location, location, location.
That's my two cents :)
"Decline" is subjective.
It's a *much* more mixed income area than it used to be, on whole, which I assume is what the longtimers mean when they mention it's alreasy in decline. By that measure, it is. And, one could make an educated guess in that the same rings of suburban decline that hit many once "it" developments will hit Mandarin, if it hasn't already, due to the newest shiny development being built further out.
Then again, I'm biased. I hate Mandarin.
A lot of people on this forum hate Mandarin, which is a shame since its pretty historic and has a rich history.
But that's a good point about what is Mandarin. Really old Mandarin is Mandarin road, west of San Jose. But people consider Mandarin all the way up to baymeadows, which is really sunbeam area.
Old Mandarin really is beautiful though.
One of the things Mandarin has going for it in many areas is that there were smaller residential developments, over a longer period of time, with more custom homes than tract housing. Additionally, many of the residential lots were not razed of trees as the current method of development seems to favor. So you do have a significant mature tree canopy that adds to the ambiance of the area, and does tie in well all the way down San Jose to San Marco.
Now the newer developments in Mandarin are being scalped before building, but they are much smaller in area than the hundreds of acres being built out in SJC. Most new Mandarin residential development is from the sale of mini-farms or small holdings.
I do think the retail on San Jose -so many closed stores and a general lack of upkeep on many of the buildings - is what leads some to think the area may be slightly declining. I counter that it's retail and the way we use it that is changing. The area supports a Publix on every corner (well, it seems like it - there are three within 2 miles of where I live), a Whole Foods, Fresh Market and an Earth Fare coming this year. Restaurants lean more toward lower-end or family oriented. Shopping as a hobby seems to be declining except for excursions to outlet malls and town centers. Looking at the Amazon in mine and my neighbors trash, the Amazon lockers popping up everywhere, it seems like more of us are getting what we need delivered if it doesn't have a short expiration date.