This is an excellent piece about the Duval Democrats. It sums up a lot of what I've felt are the party's weaknesses, though I'd say it goes back a lot farther than the last two years. I don't like to do this, but I'm posting the whole thing. Mods, feel free to trim if that's not kosher (everybody please click the link to give Nate some clicks!)
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After a dismal two years, Duval Democrats hope to escape the wilderness
Posted November 28, 2016 05:36 am - Updated November 28, 2016 05:38 am
By Nate Monroe
The Duval Democratic Party has had such a bad stretch the last two years it's almost cruel to simply recount the losses.
Republican Lenny Curry ousted incumbent Democrat Alvin Brown in the 2015 mayoral race.
U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown's indictment on federal fraud and tax charges last summer, and her subsequent re-election loss in the Democratic primary, brought a dramatic end to the career of Jacksonville's most high-profile Democrat.
For the first time in the modern political era, the city's interests in Washington, D.C., will be represented by a politician from Tallahassee.
State Rep. Reggie Fullwood's career ended after his guilty pleas to federal wire fraud and tax charges. He was once considered a rising star in the local party.
Of course, there's Hillary Clinton's national loss to President-elect Donald Trump. Her failure to win Florida is a particularly bitter pill for Democrats.
Meanwhile, Curry has built a political machine in Jacksonville, coalescing the city's right-leaning donor class into a monetary firewall for his political ambitions and mayoral priorities. And there is a stacked bench of relatively young and promising Republicans who hold elected office or have high-profile private positions in the city.
Will the Duval Democrats ever escape the wilderness?
The local party's executive committee holds elections Dec. 5 to select its next group of leaders, men and women who will have to navigate the organization through perhaps its most challenging time in recent memory. The likely front-runner for the Duval Democratic Party chair is state Sen. Audrey Gibson, a long-time Jacksonville politician and paralegal who has also represented the city in the state House.
"I believe we are well-poised to help elect a Democrat Governor and other local and state officials and we must immediately lay the foundation to make it happen," she wrote to the party's executive committee in announcing her candidacy.
Gibson helped organize the campaign of Tracie Davis, who won the party's backing to replace Fullwood on the ballot after his guilty pleas to federal charges ended his re-election. Davis won that seat. Gibson might also usher in a more publicly aggressive and visible era for the Democrats.
She was an outspoken critic of a voter referendum this summer backed by Curry that asked voters to approve a sales tax to help pay down the city's $2.85 billion pension debt. The party spent about $15,000 on mailers sent to about 20,000 households in the closing days of that election. The referendum nonetheless won by an overwhelming margin.
She also wants to restructure the party to allow for "multigenerational opportunities for leadership roles and participation."
Gibson is being challenged by a Democratic activist, James Deininger, who is looking to upend the party's structure.
"Duval Democrats, we have a number of issues to face but let me blunt in saying that our national and local Party is currently in a state of dysfunction," he wrote to executive committee members.
"As a Party, we will not win locally if we do not engage in conversation with the young and working class citizens — no matter their political affiliation."
GOING FORWARD WITHOUT BROWN
The election to some extent mirrors the national debate among Democrats about the direction to go after Trump's unexpected victory: Should the party buck its establishment and wipe the slate clean?
Neil Henrichsen, the outgoing party chairman, didn't offer an explicit endorsement in the chair race but complimented Gibson. "I think Audrey Gibson has terrific experience and knows about the field and getting out the vote," he said.
The party's challenges are severe.
Corrine Brown, until her election loss, was essentially the titular head of the party and, more crucially, its turnout operation. The Duval Democrats will have to figure out a way forward without her.
"[Brown] has been the principal turnout machine in Democratic areas of the city for two decades," Henrichsen said. "Everyone was concerned and tried to plan accordingly."
The party had some success on election day, though it was a mixed bag.
Clinton lost Jacksonville to Trump by about 6,000 votes, the best showing by any Democrat in Duval since former President Jimmy Carter won the county in 1976. At the same time, however, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio blew out his challenger, Democratic U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, by more than 69,000 votes.
The party is also at a steep money disadvantage to the local GOP.
The Duval Democratic executive committee has raised $742,785, and spent $165,549, according to finance reports. The Duval GOP has raised more than $5.1 million and only spent about $700,000 of that.
Gibson said her candidacy letter spoke for itself. But asked about the future of the party, she was sanguine — and brief: "Perfectly fine."
http://jacksonville.com/news/2016-11-28/after-dismal-two-years-duval-democrats-hope-escape-wilderness-0
It bears repeating that Clinton got more votes in Duval than any Democrat in history, and came closer to leading the county than any Dem since Carter in 1976. Historically, Republicans have had to win big in Duval County in order to win Florida. Obama won the state in the last 2 elections partly by rallying the troops in Duval and nearly cancelling McCain and Romney's wins here. This time, Trump won Florida despite nearly losing in Duval County.
Patrick Murphy's loss to Rubio isn't surprising. He was a very weak candidate who was never going to win over a popular senator. Murphy only got into the primary because their other main candidate, Alan Grayson, beached himself through allegations of financial impropriety and domestic abuse, which really says something about the state of the party.
Despite Clinton's historic gains, the election also shows that the Duval DNC has trouble winning countywide races.
Here's a look at the breakdown of the 2015 and 2016 elections. Democrats have a hard time winning county-wide races and district races that aren't structured to benefit Democrats. The only exceptions are where the Democrat is much better known and/or the opponent is notably weak.
Additionally, while Hillary Clinton made historic gains in Duval County in the 2016 general election, it had no effect on the "down ballot" elections here, as Democrats didn't run any serious candidates outside of Democratic-majority districts.
2015:
*Mayor: Republican Lenny Curry defeated incumbent Democrat Alvin Brown 103,626 to 98,353 (51.3% to 48.7%). Brown won the 2011 election in an upset against Mike Hogan, whose weaknesses as a candidate have been well covered here.
*Sheriff: Republican Mike Williams defeated Democrat Ken Jefferson.
*At Large Group 1: Newcomer Republican Anna Brosche handily defeated incumbent Democrat Kimberly Daniels. Daniels had won the 2011 race against a notoriously weak Republican, a lawyer who later had his license suspended and was arrested on an unrelated matter.
*At Large Group 2: Incumbent Democrat John Crescimbeni defeated Republican David Barron. Crescimbeni has been in politics since 1991.
*At Large Group 3: Democrat Tommy Hazouri defeated Republican Geoff Youngblood. Hazouri is a very well known figure who has been in politics since the 70s, and was Mayor from 1987-1991. Youngblood was a notoriously weak candidate.
*At Large Group 4: Incumbent Republican Greg Anderson decisively beat Democrat Juanita Powell-Williams.
*At Large Group 5: In a major upset, Republican Sam Newby beat Democrat Ju'Coby Pittman. Newby was an unknown, while Pittman is the respected director of the Clara White Mission. In the primary, both candidates beat out moderate Republican and urbanism hero Michelle Tappouni, which was also a shocker.
*District 1: Democrat Joyce Morgan defeated Republican Mike Anania. This has not traditionally been a Democratic district, but is increasingly so after the 2015 redistricting; Morgan is also a well known news personality.
*In District 2 (Al Ferraro), 4 (Scott Wilson), and 12 (Doyle Carter), Republicans defeated Democratic opponents in heavily Republican districts.
*In District 3 (Aaron Bowman), 5 (Lori Boyer), 6 (Matt Schellenberg), 11 (Danny Becton) and 13 (Bill Gulliford), Republicans won with no Democratic opponents.
*Democrats won the heavily Democratic districts of 7 (Reggie Gaffney), 8 (Katrina Brown), 9 (Garrett Dennis), and 10 (Reginald L. Brown), with no Republican opponents.
2016:
*President: Donald Trump received 211,672 votes (48.5%) compared to Hillary Clinton's 205,704 (47.1%) in Duval County. This was a historic gain for Clinton, though Trump easily defeated her in Jacksonville's suburban counties.
*Senate: Republican Marco Rubio received 241,000 votes (56.23%) compared to Democrat Patrick Murphy's 171,598 (40.04%).
*U.S. House District 4: Within Duval, John Rutherford received 170,106 (67.78%) compared to Democrat David E. Bruderly's 74,454 (29.67%). This is a Republican district and Rutherford is well known as the former Jacksonville Sheriff.
*U.S. House District 5: Democrat Al Lawson easily defeated Republican Glo Smith in the general, but the primary election was a blow to Duval Democrats, as Tallahassee resident Lawson defeated Corrine Brown, Jacksonville's most prominent Democrat, in office since 1991.
*Public Defender: Republican Charlie Cofer won the general election with no Democratic opposition. This despite public defender being a traditionally Democratic role.
*State Attorney: Republican Melissa Nelson won the general election with no Democratic opposition. The Democrats did not run a candidate, despite incumbent Angela Corey being extremely unpopular. Nelson benefited in the primary from thousands of Democrats switching registration to defeat Corey.
*Clerk of the Court: Republican Ronnie Fussell defeated Democrat Paula Bartlett.
*Republicans won the heavily Republican State House districts, with no Democratic opposition at all: 11 (Cord Byrd), 12 (Clay Yarborough), 15 (Jay Fant), and 16 (Jason Fischer).
*Democrats won the Democratic-leaning State House Districts 13 and 14 against Republican opponents, but both races were embarrassing to the party. In 13, Reggie Fullwood was charged with fraud and stepped down after winning the primary; the party appointed Tracie Davis to replace him. 14 was won by Kim Daniels, the controversial former City Council member who lost her reelection last year.
With Corinne Brown gone, the highest ranking Democrat in Jacksonville is State Senator Audrey Gibson, District 6. Her name likely makes a lot of people say "Who?" But Gibson is very smart and very capable, and appears destined to step into the role of Duval DNC chair shortly She will really have her work cut out for her.