Don't look for a Macy's anywhere near NE Florida anytime soon....
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/11/macys-reports-second-quarter-earnings.html (http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/11/macys-reports-second-quarter-earnings.html)
QuoteMacy's reported Thursday fiscal second-quarter sales and earnings that topped analysts' expectations, as shoppers responded to the department store's steep discounts. Yet with sales still on the decline, the retailer said it will shutter 100 locations to focus on its best-performing stores.
They have 8 stores in Tampa Bay (Pasco, Pinellas, and Hillsborough) alone. They may think it is smart to bring one store here at some point.
Most of the Bay Area stores are former Burdines stores. Prior to Burdines, they were Maas Brothers. Mass Brothers was a chain based out of Tampa.
(http://www.tampabay.com/resources/images/dti/rendered/2013/04/B2S_maaslead042613_10673224_8col.jpg)
The former flagship store in Downtown Tampa. Unfortunately it was demolished for a redevelopment project (about 10 years ago) that failed to materialize.
A picture of the old store I took right before it was demolished. The site is a surface parking lot today:
(http://www.metrojacksonville.com/images/tampa/DCP_4180.jpg)
I suspect the US is getting ready to enter a pretty substantial economic downturn. The 100 stores Macy's is closing are all profitable, but they are doing it now because they don't expect them to be profitable next year (or for the foreseeable future). Their outlook must be pretty negative to take that kind of step. I always watch auto-loans as a gauge for the future economy. When auto loans are offered at 0% interest red flags start flying like crazy for me, and one can now get a 0% loan for 72 months with $0 down.
TIFF buying EverBank is another ominous sign to me. To get future bailout money they are required to have a banking component.
I don't know that Macy's closing stores is indicative of anything more than a shift in how and where we buy things. Malls and Department stores are clearly past their high water mark. That Sears is still around surprises me more than anything.
I am not a 'hipster' by any means, and changing my habits takes time, but I can't remember the last time I walked into a Department store. That despite literally working across the street from a large and still successful mall.
It is a combination of changing shopping habits as well as high end designers clamping down on the practice of retailers steeply discounting inventory. Coach/Polo just to name 2 in their latest earnings call have called that practice a drain on their revenue and would prefer to pedal their wares in fewer locations than risk over exposure in the market forcing clearance rack sales.
Amen. Macy's has too many stores. Between 1990 and 2005 they gobbled up a TON of competitors and thus they have markets like Tampa Bay where they have 8 stores.
I don't think the economy is as strong as it should be, but I think what's happening to Macy's is what's happening to a lot of Brick and Mortar stores. Macy's is also lagging behind in their omnichannel strategy. I thought these two paragraphs were telling:
QuoteNearly all the stores are cash-flow positive, but "their volume and profitability in most cases have been declining steadily in recent years," said Macy's President Jeff Gennette, who will assume the CEO role from Lundgren in 2017. In some cases, the stores are not performing worse than the overall fleet, but their potential value from redevelopment exceeds their value as a retail store.
Macy's will also close a few stores where there is another location nearby. After these stores close, the retailer will retain a physical footprint in 49 of the top 50 U.S. markets based on population. The company will use the savings from its store closings to focus on its "highest-potential locations," and invest "more aggressively in digital and mobile," Gennette said.
I think this is a slow (not sure why they were so slow to realize) reaction to the fact that their footprint is not what it should be. I also think that they are about to start doing large scale refreshes of their stores (probably a good strategy), and if you're going to do that, you might as well close the stores that you don't want to invest in.
I guess Jacksonville is the only market in the top 50 without a store.
Also, nothing says that all 100 stores are Macy's-branded stores. Macy's, Inc. owns a few other brands too.
Quote from: thelakelander on August 11, 2016, 09:38:10 AM
Most of the Bay Area stores are former Burdines stores. Prior to Burdines, they were Maas Brothers. Mass Brothers was a chain based out of Tampa.
(http://www.tampabay.com/resources/images/dti/rendered/2013/04/B2S_maaslead042613_10673224_8col.jpg)
The former flagship store in Downtown Tampa. Unfortunately it was demolished for a redevelopment project (about 10 years ago) that failed to materialize.
A picture of the old store I took right before it was demolished. The site is a surface parking lot today:
(http://www.metrojacksonville.com/images/tampa/DCP_4180.jpg)
What a shame. They pretty much just labeled the building as unsafe and demolished it very quickly to build a new condo building. Now it is a parking lot. I am surprised someone has not scooped it up yet to build on.
All those stores they absorbed had the power of local or regional buyers. This meant they could tailor their products to the local tastes.
But when Macy's was cutting costs, they eliminated all those regional and local buyers and centralized everything in New York.
How can a textile or merchandise buyer in New York know what the trends are in Ocala, Florida, let alone Bozeman, Montana?
My spouse loves their professional womens wear, as they are difficult to get in greater Jacksonville. So she typically drives down to Millenia in Orlando or Mall of America.
They could easily eliminate 4 of those Tampa area stores and create 1 Jacksonville store. But I bet they are stuck in a lot of leases from the 1990's that have yet to expire and so they holding out until they do.
But its clear they are either losing touch with their market or they are shrinking to what the market will support.
Here is another way to look at things...
In Jax, we haven't gotten Macy's, may be losing Kmart & Sears, but gaining Amazon. I think that may be the story in a nutshell.
Would be curious to know what Dillards and Nordstrom think of the area. Nordstrom apparently hedged their bets here as I am told the Jax store isn't full size and, thus, doesn't carry some of the lines they carry elsewhere.
I have heard the high end specialty/luxury retailers at Town Center are doing well. Seems those who tightly control their retail channels (e.g. brands that operate their own boutiques like Louis Vuitton where they absolutely do not discount or put items on sale I am told) are fairing better than those that are more broad-based, and thus, less exclusive.
The world is becoming ever more niche rather than broad based appeal whether clothes, movies, television, music, or entertainment. Football might be the last thing that brings us all together. 8)
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on August 11, 2016, 05:20:04 PM
Here is another way to look at things...
In Jax, we haven't gotten Macy's, may be losing Kmart & Sears, but gaining Amazon. I think that may be the story in a nutshell.
Would be curious to know what Dillards and Nordstrom think of the area. Nordstrom apparently hedged their bets here as I am told the Jax store isn't full size and, thus, doesn't carry some of the lines they carry elsewhere.
I have heard the high end specialty/luxury retailers at Town Center are doing well. Seems those who tightly control their retail channels (e.g. brands that operate their own boutiques like Louis Vuitton where they absolutely do not discount or put items on sale I am told) are fairing better than those that are more broad-based, and thus, less exclusive.
Agreed on Nordstroms. Outside of womens shoes, friends from out of town call it "Nordstrom Lite" for its rather slim selection.
^I wouldn't know. I've never been in the place. However, I'm not a mall guy. My mom was a shopaholic, so after living in malls in the 80s and 90s, I avoid them like the plague today.
Quote from: spuwho on August 11, 2016, 05:52:48 PM
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on August 11, 2016, 05:20:04 PM
Here is another way to look at things...
In Jax, we haven't gotten Macy's, may be losing Kmart & Sears, but gaining Amazon. I think that may be the story in a nutshell.
Would be curious to know what Dillards and Nordstrom think of the area. Nordstrom apparently hedged their bets here as I am told the Jax store isn't full size and, thus, doesn't carry some of the lines they carry elsewhere.
I have heard the high end specialty/luxury retailers at Town Center are doing well. Seems those who tightly control their retail channels (e.g. brands that operate their own boutiques like Louis Vuitton where they absolutely do not discount or put items on sale I am told) are fairing better than those that are more broad-based, and thus, less exclusive.
Agreed on Nordstroms. Outside of womens shoes, friends from out of town call it "Nordstrom Lite" for its rather slim selection.
"slim" in variety, not sizing...
QuoteI always watch auto-loans as a gauge for the future economy. When auto loans are offered at 0% interest red flags start flying like crazy for me, and one can now get a 0% loan for 72 months with $0 down.
TIFF buying EverBank is another ominous sign to me. To get future bailout money they are required to have a banking component.
Rep
Auto Loans are slipping, as Ford and GM have stated, their loan departments have seen a 30% increase in auto loan defaults over the last year. This could be the next bailout. Did you know that the average age of a car on the road is 11 years now? So places like Autozone and Discount Auto Parts are thriving as people hold onto their vehicles longer, and they last longer too.
I agree, when you see Auto companies offering 0% and willing to pay your first 3, 5 or longer payments, you know they are trying to bring in the last set of customers who have been kicking tires.
In 5 years, I don't believe Everbank will be in Jax. Banks not HQ'd in Jax with ownership in Jax, don't stay. Jax has that track record.
About Macy's and retail, CNBC discussed it yesterday, that the Malls that have a Microsoft Store or Apple Store, seem to thrive over those with the old Sears or JCPenny stores. Cool Tech Gadget shops and Hottopic/Forever 21 stores (although the one in Jax bailed out) seem to help the malls in suburbia. Belk plans to shut down the Roosevelt store (part of the old Roosevelt Mall, soon to be a church or large roller rink, or hopefully hip-cool residential), and it seems that there is just too much retail space out there:
QuoteMacy's takes the lead and finally starts addressing the overstored retail landscape. Macy's CEO Terry Lundgren showed up on "Squawk Box" to talk about his company's earnings this morning, and threw out one of the more interesting stats I've heard this month.
He noted that the United States has 7.3 square feet of retail space per person, while France and Japan both have 1.7 square feet, and the U.K. has 1.3 square feet.
The United States has almost five times more retail space per person than France, Japan and the U.K.? Yep. Lundgren rightly described the situation as "ridiculous."
Lundgren is addressing that by announcing Macy's will be closing 100 underperforming stores out of a base of 728. That is quite a reduction. The annual sales loss could approach $1 billion, but that might be offset somewhat by expense savings.
Macy's will not be the last store to downsize its operations. This bodes problematic for the Sleimans of the world too, as they see fewer and fewer retailers for their strip malls. Soon any business selling products will be outsourced to smart phone, so look for more service agencies to open up shop in the spaces that box stores used to use.
Spuwho makes a great point. Macy's is really Federated Dept. Stores. Back 2 decades ago that was several regional brands, such as Lazarus stores in Ohio. Different brands in different regions all under Federated. They bought and sold what was good for that region. Ohio, FL, DC all have different needs and taste. I believe that consolidation did hurt their marketing. If high end stores at SJTC do well it's cause they are smaller and tailor their goods to their market. On line buying has hurt, but many items people still want to see and try. Up scale clothing, furniture, appliances, jewelry, etc.
The latest list of Macy's store closures includes the closest one to Jax, G-ville's Oak's Mall location. Also a location in DT MIA will close.
http://www.businessinsider.com/macys-stores-closing-list-2018-1
I kind of had the feeling that the Miami Macy's was on its last legs. When I stopped in there back in October, half of the six story building had been sealed off already. DT Cincinnati's store is also on the list.
Quote from: thelakelander on January 04, 2018, 05:57:58 PM
I kind of had the feeling that the Miami Macy's was on its last legs. When I stopped in there back in October, half of the six story building had been sealed off already. DT Cincinnati's store is also on the list.
I remember going there when it was still a Burdines.
Sad, but I wouldn't be surprised if it that block is quickly redeveloped and the closure becomes a net win for downtown Miami.
Like you mention, place was a bit of a dump for years now.
I believe it will be a win. That building was too large for them and they haven't put much money into it in years. Given DT Miami's population growth, it sits in a pretty great centralized location.
Many people like to predict the demise of suburban malls (and basically by default their department stores within). IMO the biggest dinosaur of them all is the traditional downtown department store; they make most suburban department stores look very feasible in contrast. IMO downtowns should focus on smaller brand stores, small mom and pops, restaurants and supermarkets.
Both concepts are going down. For the most part, downtown department stores took it on the chin in the 1980s and 1990s. I read something the other day that another 300 low performing malls will be on their way to the afterlife if Sears or JCPenney file for bankruptcy this year. Locally, that would kill Regency and leave big holes in Orange Park and the Avenues. With that said, what's happening in DT Miami is interesting. Macy's dies but a new mall opens downtown with a department store of its own. However, unlike a traditional mall, its tenant mix includes food halls as anchors.
As for the suburban malls and strip centers, we have too much retail space. Anything new at this point is simply pulling existing retail and leaving vacant properties somewhere else.
Quote from: thelakelander on January 05, 2018, 09:23:54 AM
Both concepts are going down. For the most part, downtown department stores took it on the chin in the 1980s and 1990s. I read something the other day that another 300 low performing malls will be on their way to the afterlife if Sears or JCPenney file for bankruptcy this year. Locally, that would kill Regency and leave big holes in Orange Park and the Avenues. With that said, what's happening in DT Miami is interesting. Macy's dies but a new mall opens downtown with a department store of its own. However, unlike a traditional mall, its tenant mix includes food halls as anchors.
As for the suburban malls and strip centers, we have too much retail space. Anything new at this point is simply pulling existing retail and leaving vacant properties somewhere else.
That said, though, Target has been trying a new "urban footprint" store for a short while now. I've seen a couple in just driving by (haven't been in a position to where I could actually get out of the car) and they looked really cool. Very inviting from the street. Have you heard how this venture has been going for them?
A lot of stores have been experimenting with urban footprints. I'm not sure how Target's experiment has turned out but Walmart gave up and decided to focus on their Neighborhood Market formats instead. The big winners so far are Dollar General and Family Dollar. They've mastered stuffing a bunch of cheap stuff in small spaces.
Quote from: thelakelander on January 05, 2018, 09:56:21 AM
A lot of stores have been experimenting with urban footprints. I'm not sure how Target's experiment has turned out but Walmart gave up and decided to focus on their Neighborhood Market formats instead. The big winners so far are Dollar General and Family Dollar. They've mastered stuffing a bunch of cheap stuff in small spaces.
Anytime I drive through a rural area, I am amazed at the sheer number of Dollar General stores that have been built. They are essentially the new Wal Mart for low income, rural communities.
Funny thing is 25% of their overall sales are made by millennials. They've rolled out an urban format as well called DGX:
QuoteThe concept is being tested in Nashville as what is envisioned as a discount version of the quick-trip store for urban customers. Think of it as sort of a hip convenience store or corner market.
There are similarities between a traditional Dollar General store and DGX, but the smaller-format store features a more modern design, a curated selection of goods and a brewed coffee station for metropolitan shoppers.
The store has a 3,400-square-foot sales floor in a portion of the former TGI Friday's restaurant space.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/97357488
Quote from: thelakelander on January 05, 2018, 09:56:21 AM
A lot of stores have been experimenting with urban footprints. I'm not sure how Target's experiment has turned out but Walmart gave up and decided to focus on their Neighborhood Market formats instead. The big winners so far are Dollar General and Family Dollar. They've mastered stuffing a bunch of cheap stuff in small spaces.
They must be doing something right. Their CEO just said two weeks ago that they will open another 100 of them in the next three years. Ironically enough, the article where I found that shows one of them as the ground floor of a new apartment building, six stories tall. Kinda what a few people on this forum have been saying we need.
If I recall, they were initially targeting first tier urban areas and college towns first. The closest to here is in Gainesville. It just opened in November:
http://www.gainesville.com/news/20171108/target-at-standard-now-open
(http://photos.moderncities.com/Cities/Gainesville-August-2017/i-vLf3R7V/0/1c4e50af/L/20170812_092528-L.jpg)
It's located in the bottom of this building across the street from UF. I think it will be a while before you'll see something like an urban Target in DT Jax. We'll probably see something like a DGX (Dollar General's version) first.
(https://mediaassets.newschannel5.com/photo/2017/01/20/DGX_1484955546594_53689886_ver1.0_640_480.jpg)
(http://www.phillychitchat.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/HD1_6375-Custom.jpg)
Target's been playing with the urban store format for 20 years. It's always been touted as being the future. For 20 years it hasn't been.
Target's had a lot of problems the last 5 years and took a beating on the stock market. They've been closing stores, going through layoffs, etc.
That may be true given the shift to on-line shopping. But it hasn't happened yet. And if the online component doesn't kick in with all of that, I don't see these stores getting built out. Target just doesn't have the cash, especially given the intense compeition, to make a go of things being a small sales org.
Quote from: bl8jaxnative on October 06, 2018, 04:08:47 PM
Target's had a lot of problems the last 5 years and took a beating on the stock market. T
Actually, the stock is up about 10% over the last 6 months, so I'm not sure where you get the "took a beating on the stock market" came from. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/tgt (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/tgt)