Exactly one year and and four days from today on November the 8th, 2016 we will be voting for the President and Vice President of America. Party politics, polls and political maneuvers have already begun, candidates have filed for the race and many dropped out at this point. The actual counting of numbers and polling for the major parties began way back in 2014. The general public often has little to no idea about the process of electing our president or the politics behind it. People often complain that no one "good/competent" according to their perceptions of good or competent is running for office, the measure of that generally being who is running as a Democrat and who is running as a Republican. For all intensive purposes we do have a two party system in spite of the reality that there are.
Right now there are around 30 registered parties, that would be 28 parties beyond the Democrat and Republican parties.
As of today's date there are 1,332 people who have filed to become candidates in the race for president 2016
I am not going to list them all here, you can bet on that but if you are interested you can look at them here : http://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_candidates,_2016#Full_list_of_declared_candidates
Currently the parties that American media and most voters are focused on are the Democrat and Republican parties. As of today here are the candidates filed and running for each party.
Democrat candidates for president are:
(http://i.imgur.com/7bBJYn5.jpg)
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Martin O'Malley
Republican candidates for president are:
(http://i.imgur.com/XrYGJKi.jpg)
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
It will be from this field of candidates that the two major parties will chose their candidate to run for the office of President. That will be decided through primary elections and caucuses that will take place between February and June of next year.
Clearly a lot of things can and will change during this process and while it may be tempting to "predict" who the party candidates might be, there is honestly no way to know for sure this far out. Certainly there are favorites and candidates flush with special interest money. Anything can and will happen especially during this race for president which has got to be one of the strangest contests during the often conscientious political history this country has ever seen. This is largely the result of Citizens United, bought and paid for media and the uncontrolled manipulation via money impacting our campaign system. This will be one historic election that will have one of the greatest impacts on our nation and our future.
My prediction: no republicans will drop out before the next debate - the last one and the next one are so close they'll hang on. But after that I expect to see the crowd thin out.
The upset: That Bush isn't doing so hot. I'm not counting him out, but I thought for sure he'd be #1 or #2.
I'm already fatigued. Can't turn on anything without a new poll having to be debated.
Quote from: fsquid on November 05, 2015, 10:19:00 AM
I'm already fatigued. Can't turn on anything without a new poll having to be debated.
You are not alone in that sentiment. This is going to be one hell of a ride for those who follow politics. For those who don't vote or are completely disengaged with the process the overkill with polls and predictions at this early stage is just another reason to ignore politics. The polls are pretty much meaningless at this point. They are largely flawed, often driven by private agenda's and have lost any real impact they might have had in the past with results being all over the place and recording the popularity on a blow by blow basis of candidates who will later exit the race. The real measure of what the people are thinking will come with the caucuses and primaries which will span five month's from February to June. Right now polls or no polls, there is nothing to indicate that Hillary Clinton is still not the strongest contender for the Presidential nomination on the Dem ticket and ultimately the one who would likely take the office of President. The only factor impacting that at this point is Bernie Sanders who should not be underestimated. It may be interesting to note that at this place and time in the original competition between Hillary Clinton and Obama, Hillary led by 29 points. We all know how that turned out. On the GOP side, wild cards are currently the ones to watch. Trump will fail and so will Carson in the next few month's. The ones the establishment are now pushing are Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. Jeb Bush is done for and nothing short of a miracle will put him at the head of the pack right now. Having said all of that however, things can change at any moment during this campaign cycle which is one of the most bizarre I have ever witnessed in my decades following politics.
The thing that frustrates me is that, our local media only seems to focus on the Republican side, giving little mention of the Democrats. but when they do, they ask, which republican candidate will take on Hilliary? What about Sanders?
Quote from: urbaknight on November 05, 2015, 01:05:20 PM
The thing that frustrates me is that, our local media only seems to focus on the Republican side, giving little mention of the Democrats. but when they do, they ask, which republican candidate will take on Hilliary? What about Sanders?
That's because the democrats aren't quite the circus that the republicans are. Besides, it's pretty much going to be Hillary anyway. Sanders is the democrats version of Ron Paul, strong grassroots, etc, but likely not going to win. (Obviously my opinion only, but who knows for sure).
The other reason they focus on the Republicans vs the Democrats is that there's only 6 democratic debates vs 12 republican:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_debates,_2016#Schedule
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_debates,_2016#Schedule
So in short, more people, more debates, more to talk about.
Quote from: urbaknight on November 05, 2015, 01:05:20 PM
The thing that frustrates me is that, our local media only seems to focus on the Republican side, giving little mention of the Democrats. but when they do, they ask, which republican candidate will take on Hilliary? What about Sanders?
This is the case nationwide. To answer the question you have to look at who own's individual stations and who owns the largest media outlets. Jacksonville has always provided a right leaning viewpoint which is part of the reason why GOP Chairman Lenny Curry was elected to the office of Mayor. Jacksonville has a long way to go before it is truly moderate and accepting of liberal idea's and viewpoints. They speak to Hillary because she is the establishment favorite and truth be known, of all the candidates on the Dem ticket, Hillary is supported by many of the right wing powerful who will be happy with either her or Bush because they play by the old ground rules in top level politics.
And that bothers me; everyone I talk to (and I'm sure this is true for most of you too)have talked with people that are tired of the establishment candidates and "the same lo same ol" that they'll be sure to bring. How on Earth will the establishment hold on without fixing the election, unless the masses show up to vote? I'm for Bernie Sanders and what he says is correct. We have to get the young, college students, the poor and the biggest group of all the apaethic and disillusioned to believe; and only when they show their support,(by voting) there'll be a chance to change the cource of our government.
Quote from: urbaknight on November 05, 2015, 03:56:45 PM
And that bothers me; everyone I talk to (and I'm sure this is true for most of you too)have talked with people that are tired of the establishment candidates and "the same lo same ol" that they'll be sure to bring. How on Earth will the establishment hold on without fixing the election, unless the masses show up to vote? I'm for Bernie Sanders and what he says is correct. We have to get the young, college students, the poor and the biggest group of all the apaethic and disillusioned to believe; and only when they show their support,(by voting) there'll be a chance to change the cource of our government.
The problem is that the people who are doing most of the talking regarding the establishment in government have still not understood in today's world it is about the money and power buying the established politicians. I can think of a single "viable" candidate who does not fall into the "bought' category and that is indeed Bernie Sanders. The establishment today equals big money influence and that is what has to change in order to change how the establishment works going forward. Sanders is on the mark when he says the people have to come together and demand changes. A political revolution is needed, to what degree we will see that remains unknown at this point.
I'm hoping and praying that Sanders wins.