The votes have been cast and the election decided. Exhausted candidates and their supporters will all be experiencing some sort of election hangover. I know I am glad the seats have been decided but the politics does not end with the election. In order to understand where we are going we must first take a look at the results of yesterdays election, so here we go.
Race for Mayor was decided with Lenny Curry elected as our new Mayor.
Brown garnered 48.69% Total votes 98,349
Curry 51.31% 103,626
Race decided by 5,277 votes
Race for Sheriff was decided with Mike Williams elected as our next Sheriff.
Williams garnered 51.53% Total votes 104,125
Jefferson 48.47% 97,925
Race decided by 6,220 votes
These were the top two seats on the ballot. I will soon post the results of the other races.
The results for the Council at Large seats are as follows":
Group 1 At Large
Anna Lopez Brosche garnered 55.22% Total votes 108,696
Kimberly Daniels 44.78% 88,840
Race decided by 19,856 votes
Group 3 At Large
Tommy Hazouri garnered 55.34% Total votes 110,696
Geoff Youngblood 44.78% 88,840
Race decided by 21,228 votes
At Large Group 5
Newby garnered 51.19% Total votes 100,136
Pittman 48.81% 95,498
Race decided by 4,638 votes
The results for the regular District Council Seats are as follows:
District 1
Morgan garnered 52.24% Total votes 7,396
Anania 47.76% 6,762
Race decided by 634 votes
District 2
Ferraro garnered 57.91% Total votes 9,676
King 42.09% 7,033
Race decided by 2,643 votes
District 4
Day garnered 36.96% Vote total 4,203
Wilson 63.08% 7,170
Race decided by 2,967 votes
District 7
Gaffney garnered 50.98% Total votes 6,528
Spencer Jr. 49.02% 6,276
Race decided by 252 votes
Who did the voters decide on for all of the open seats in March and May. The results are as follows:
Mayor: Lenny Curry (Republican)
Sheriff: Mike Williams (Republican)
Supervisor of Elections: Mike Hogan (Republican)
Property Appraiser: Jerry Holland (Republican)
Tax Collector: Michael Corrigan (Republican incumbent/ran unopposed)
At Large Council:
1 Anna Lopez-Brosche (Republican)
2 John Crescimbini (Democrat incumbent)
3 Tommy Hazouri (Democrat)
4 Greg Anderson (Republican incumbent)
5 Sam Newby (Republican)
City council District Seats:
1 Joyce Morgan (Democrat)
2 Al Ferraro (Republican)
3 Aaron Bowman (Republican)
4 Scott Wilson (Republican)
5 Lori Boyer (Republican incumbent ran unopposed)
6 Matt Schellenberg (Republican incumbent)
7 Reggie Gaffney (Democrat)
8 Katrina Brown (Democrat)
9 Garrett Dennis (Democrat)
10 Reggie Brown (Democrat)
11 Danny Becton (Republican)
12 Doyle Carter (Republican incumbent)
13 Bill Gulliford (Republican incumbent ran unopposed)
14 Jim Love (Republican incumbent)
Thanks, Diane!
When the new council and office holders are sworn in next July. We will see a total of 14 seats with new leadership.
The top tier of local government not including the council will be all Republican.
The city council including at large will represent 7 Democrats and 12 Republicans.
Clearly the bulk of Duval leadership is going to remain Republican in a city with more registered Democrats than Republicans. This is an important fact when it comes to understanding the balance of power in Jacksonville.
Of course all these positions were the result of a "unitary" election process but the fact remains in Jacksonville that party lines remain strong with a bit of movement by the more moderate in both parties. Also of note is the hard fact that there is no one who ran outside of the top two parties who landed a seat. Duval still totally functions on the Dem/Rep paradigm on the surface. What is unknown is how many in both party are moderate in their views and it will be the more moderates who will greatly impact the political landscape of our city over time but all indicators is that in Duval at least, this will be a slow process.
Quote from: Wacca Pilatka on May 20, 2015, 03:44:48 PM
Thanks, Diane!
You are so welcome. I have some more information and insights coming up. Stand by. :)
It may have been the way it was quoted, but I didnt like Guilliford's comments on having new council members.
It came off like the new members were idiots and had never been in a board meeting in their life.
Also I hope they do some good COJ 101 and 102 with the new members.
There have been huge collective knowledge gaps in council decision-making.
Here is hoping that member prep is taken more seriously than in the past.
Happy Birthday! -From Lenny Curry
Yep,today received in the mail a Happy Birthday post card from Lenny Curry. 3428 Beach Blvd.
I simply must acknowledge this savvy campaign effort, which utilized public records to access voter's birth dates that fell within the campaign cycle.
Is Mr. Curry really My Buddy!.....will I receive a card next year? ;D
Quoteit seems apparent that the citywide races were not really decided by party loyalties.
I think a better and more comprehensive description would be "the vast majority voted based on their party affiliation, except where doing so would result in an embarrassment to the city".
The vote totals between the non-wack-job Democrats were nearly identical, whether Mayor, Sheriff or Council. The same is true with the Republicans.
Quote from: stephendare on May 20, 2015, 03:52:15 PM
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 20, 2015, 02:40:54 PM
The votes have been cast and the election decided. Exhausted candidates and their supporters will all be experiencing some sort of election hangover. I know I am glad the seats have been decided but the politics does not end with the election. In order to understand where we are going we must first take a look at the results of yesterdays election, so here we go.
Race for Mayor was decided with Lenny Curry elected as our new Mayor.
Brown garnered 48.69% Total votes 98,349
Curry 51.31% 103,626
Race decided by 5,277 votes
Race for Sheriff was decided with Mike Williams elected as our next Sheriff.
Williams garnered 51.53% Total votes 104,125
Jefferson 48.47% 97,925
Race decided by 6,220 votes
These were the top two seats on the ballot. I will soon post the results of the other races.
So Brown vs Curry was decided by the second smallest margin of any of the citywide races?
Only Pittman vs Newby was decided by fewer, and that was between two candidates that most of the city doesn't know.
Compared to the 19k and 21k spread between Brosche vs Daniels and Hazouri vs Youngblood respectively. (the first in favor of the Republican and the second in favor of the Democrat) it seems apparent that the citywide races were not really decided by party loyalties.
Again the moderates decided this election.
Pretty exciting.
You are correct. What I want people to take a look at are the sizable differences in votes cast in the main and council at large seats compared to the smaller districts. How solid a campaign is run along with outreach and platform that resonates with voters can definitely impact the race outcome. Looking at the district races shows this dynamic more clearly.
Lets look at a few of district races as an example and for discussion.
District 7 is a good one to start with and gives us some insight into the waffling influence of Corrine Brown on local politics. I want to focus on the districts but will mention at this juncture the fact that Corrine pulled out all of the stops in her last minute efforts to get Alvin Brown re-elected down to hosting a Selma Sunday she failed to rally the needed votes. This deserves some thought on the part of voters and especially Democrats.
In District 7 We had a well know person in Reggie Gaffney who has been a political personality and player in the world of Corrine Brown and Jacksonville for years. This election cycle in spite of Gaffney's history with Brown she chose to back newcomer George Spencer Jr. Something many might not know is that Reggie Gaffney was a "Republican" most of the time he and Corrine worked together. He garnered millions in dollars for business efforts he was attached to. He and Corrine were at the heart of scandal when some of these deals were exposed. Gaffney himself was also found to have bilked Medicare for funds over seven figures his brother bilking the same agency out of 113,000. Gaffney goes on name recognition in political races and his association with Corrine only grew his influence but that influence had started to fail him. Apparently not enough to keep him from winning this race in spite of Corrine backing her new guy Spencer. Looks like she built him up a bit too solidly and even her quick picks failed to pull the needed votes to Spencer. Lots of folks were hoping to see Spencer take this seat believing in a new beginning for their district. They may have been betting on an illusion. Spencer was hand picked by Corrine Brown for a reason. He is an accountant and an attorney for about three years who is willing to play by Brown's political rules. He had flown to DC to visit with Corrine and she also put money into his campaign. I personally question the motives of Spencer, Gaffney's are clear and self serving. I think Spencer's goals were also self serving to a large degree. He was criticized for being absent at key points in the campaign process. He excused his absence by saying his personal businesses kept him too busy. If that is so and he did not have time to be available to campaign, how much time would he have put into actually appearing at council meetings and working to the goals of the people? We will not find that out in the next council cycle. To my view this district was one where the person winning would come with an agenda that reached far beyond the people they represent. The district elected a compromised leader in Gaffney as it stands and they would be wise to remain aware of the bills and legislation he associates himself with at all times and get any promises from him in writing. I know this sounds harsh but the facts of his time in politics and personal dealings to date in Jacksonville are themselves harsh. As far as the Gaffney/Spencer district debate, those in attendance called it a debacle with Gaffney calling for the exorcism of Satan from the room. Good luck District seven. I for one will be watching Gaffney and his dealings when he takes office. The above are my personal insights on this race which are a combination of facts, personal insight and candidate research.
Quote from: stephendare on May 20, 2015, 03:55:31 PM
see above.
The republicans who won were far from the Right of their party.
And the ran against democrats that were far away from the left of their party.
You are mostly right about the republicans who were elected not all being hard right, however Doyle Carter is as far right as they come and Schellenberg is not far behind him especially when it comes to GLBT rights. Lenny Curry may in fact prove himself not to be hard right in action as a mayor however his entire campaign from digs about Hillary Clinton to Obama along with the props given him from the likes of Texas nutter Rick Perry and anti Cuba, anti immigration Marco Rubio and Let's not forget Jeb Bush, the guy who thinks religious people indeed should have the right to discriminate against gays was all geared to appeal to the hard right voter. I voted for Mike Williams as sheriff in spite of his political endorsements because he has already demonstrated who he is and how he leads in positions of authority in the JSO and he is a genuinely fine man. Curry touted his GOP affiliations to the hilt again looking to get the far right vote. My hope is that he will indeed embrace the statement he made about one city one Jacksonville going forward. It is also my hope that the presence of John Delaney is his support will to some degree indicate words of wisdom and influence coming from Delaney to Curry about the HRO as well as racial discrimination in this city. As far as the returning Republican council members besides Carter, seem to be open minded thinkers. Again these are my takes on the issue.
Quote from: stephendare on May 20, 2015, 04:04:05 PM
In the Alvin Brown race, apparently Rusty Mead, who had formerly been a part of the LGBT coalition, was encouraging people to not vote for mayor, and I think that was a factor.
If Alvin had simply embraced and publicly met with the LGBT community that would have given him another couple of thousand votes.
Kim Scott was a factor in this election.
Calivin Burney was a factor as well (something that was made vividly clear to us last night at the Mike Williams victory party)
The treatment of Theresa Price hurt him.
Refusing to answer Delores Weavers phone calls after he became mayor cost him.
But I think no other issue cost him as many votes as the HRO.
He pissed off Republican straight allies and LGBT people alike by treating the issue as though it was a conference of death eaters and The Gays were just another name for he who shall not be named.
If I had to pick a single issue that it boiled down to for Alvin it would be the HRO and his weird non answers after confronted about it.
It was more influential on the race than Curry's campaign was, I suspect.
In the end Stephen, Browns refusal to answer the HRO question did impact him but the real reason Brown lost is that he was a weak mayor, short on leadership and big on hype. Brown lost because he did not govern competently and the people knew it.
Quote from: stephendare on May 20, 2015, 04:59:57 PM
yeah, i pretty much view the concerted republican effort behind Curry as a colossal failure that boiled down to GOTV and single issue voters on the HRO. If the mighty republican machinery was going to exert its influence it was this race where they backed an insider that represented the right wing of the party.
The roar was barely a whimper, and Alviin went down in the final analysis with self inflicted wounds.
The local and State Dem parties are weak and dysfunctional. I know this statement will irk lots of my friends but it's the truth. Until Dems are willing to face down their weakness as a party and divisiveness within the party they will never gain and sustain the desired influence in Jacksonville. The local Republican party is also quite divisive but they still have the money and power to lock arms and get their folks elected.
Quote from: stephendare on May 20, 2015, 05:07:20 PM
i can see how you would think that, but now that its over, i think that he was actually a capable administrator. Much better than Peyton had been. I wonder if you remember the actual chaos with Sam Mousa (the most competent public servant the city has ever had) and Walt Bussells that ended in the loss of hundreds of millions of the city's reserves (and screwed the pension)?
Brown got constructively out of the way, like a true republican would approve of doing.
Just like Brown didn't really win against Hogan, Hogan lost the election, Curry certainly wasn't given the nod by the election deciding moderates over his competence. It was Alvin's to lose and he did.
There was a real feeling that his Jesus Christ, Lord and Savior, Hallelujah business during his concession was a subtle fuck you to the LGBT voters that defected. (not my feeling, but the stated interpretation of others throughout the night and today)
I also understand and respect your view Stephen. I am serious about that. I thought all of this through and was very conflicted in my final decision and vote. I voted Brown but am not devastated by a Curry win. Brown's closing comments last night, all that praise Jesus stuff was his normal tendency to be a preacher. He has been heavily indoctrinated by his beliefs as have so many current and previous elected officials. Religiosity should have not place in government or politics. Our forefathers had that right.
Quote from: spuwho on May 20, 2015, 04:08:16 PM
It may have been the way it was quoted, but I didnt like Guilliford's comments on having new council members.
It came off like the new members were idiots and had never been in a board meeting in their life.
Also I hope they do some good COJ 101 and 102 with the new members.
There have been huge collective knowledge gaps in council decision-making.
Here is hoping that member prep is taken more seriously than in the past.
There is some serious preparation in governing and ethics that the newly elected will go through. I did not hear Bill's statement but there is always a learning curve for newly elected officers. Always has been always will be. It has the most impact at the level of Mayor though. :) My guess is that Curry has a lot of folks surrounding him that will shorten his learning curve in office. I think his biggest surprise will be the reality that you can't run the city like a business. That takes some getting used to for private sector business folks.
Quote from: stephendare on May 20, 2015, 04:06:36 PM
At Hamburger Mary's apparently there was a huge cheer when Kim Daniels got defeated last night.
Karrissa Wade delivered a heartfelt speech to the (giant) crowd that was assembled there.
I cheered too even though I was home alone. So happy to see this woman's political attachments to Jacksonville end here and now. Must have been all that witchcraft worked against her that did it. LMAO Mark my words, she will blame her loss on Satan and witches. As far as I know she made no congratulatory call to Anna Brosche either. I make it a policy not to personalize the actions of politicians but cannot do so with Rick Scott or Kimberly Daniels. I don't like their politics or their personalities and beliefs. My shortcoming I know and I make no excuses for this view. :)
Here is a very cool map and voter breakdown by all precincts provided by the Times Union. Click link to view.
http://static.jacksonville.com/files/mayormap/
Yep, as predicted, Curry worked the beaches and CRUSHED Brown with 62.5% of the vote there, winning all 13 precincts in Atlantic Beach, Neptune and Jacksonville Beach.
Whereas Bishop carried District 1404, 1413 and 1415 in March, Curry was able to bag 1404, which shows that people were not buying what Bishop sold the final 8 weeks.
http://static.jacksonville.com/files/mayormap/ (http://static.jacksonville.com/files/mayormap/)
QuoteJust like Brown didn't really win against Hogan, Hogan lost the election
After 4 years, was that really hard to say?
I'm glad to see the undervotes in the Mayoral contest were fewer than the margin. That's about all I'll say about any strategy on the part of anyone to swing the election or send some kind of message by leaving the race un-voted.
I don't think the Mayor's religious statements last night had anything to do with the HRO or the LGBT community. He often makes passionate (and slightly awkward) appeals to the Almighty during his public remarks. The OGC is still working on the comparative study of anti-discrimination laws on the books elsewhere. This great new council we've elected, and the new Mayor, will get a thorough primer on the issues surrounding the HRO.
I won't deny that the LGBT community flexed its growing political muscle last night. Our most vocal council candidate got more votes than anyone. And our most vocal opponent on the Council was sent packing in epic fashion. We picked up the seat of our second most vocal opponent. Four of our endorsed candidates got to where we needed them to be last night in part thanks to our door-knocks, phone calls, mail, and money. We built relationships through the whole election cycle that will make our next HRO campaign more polished and much more solid.
Mike Williams will make an excellent Sheriff. And Mr. Curry will give us, hopefully, Mayor Delaney's third term. Not a bad place to start come July 1.
QuoteI refuse to believe that you are actually as stupid drunk oblivious as this post seems to make you sound.
Stop it, I might have to break out in a Mayor Brown Religious revival speech, if you keep up these sentimental remarks.
I really, truly hope that the new council, mayor and sheriff will work together to mend some of the riffs occurring over the past few years and unite for the good of our city. We have a chance to improve things but it will only happen if we can collaborate instead of compete.
Getting past the party lines - as it appears the voters did - will help a lot in that regard.
Quote from: stephendare on May 20, 2015, 04:04:05 PM
In the Alvin Brown race, apparently Rusty Mead, who had formerly been a part of the LGBT coalition, was encouraging people to not vote for mayor, and I think that was a factor.
If Alvin had simply embraced and publicly met with the LGBT community that would have given him another couple of thousand votes.
Kim Scott was a factor in this election.
Calivin Burney was a factor as well (something that was made vividly clear to us last night at the Mike Williams victory party)
The treatment of Theresa Price hurt him.
Refusing to answer Delores Weavers phone calls after he became mayor cost him.
But I think no other issue cost him as many votes as the HRO.
He pissed off Republican straight allies and LGBT people alike by treating the issue as though it was a conference of death eaters and The Gays were just another name for he who shall not be named.
If I had to pick a single issue that it boiled down to for Alvin it would be the HRO and his weird non answers after confronted about it.
It was more influential on the race than Curry's campaign was, I suspect.
So cops didn't like Burney? Didn't realize they frequented the world of planning.
Quote from: mtraininjax on May 20, 2015, 06:39:40 PM
Yep, as predicted, Curry worked the beaches and CRUSHED Brown with 62.5% of the vote there, winning all 13 precincts in Atlantic Beach, Neptune and Jacksonville Beach.
Whereas Bishop carried District 1404, 1413 and 1415 in March, Curry was able to bag 1404, which shows that people were not buying what Bishop sold the final 8 weeks.
http://static.jacksonville.com/files/mayormap/ (http://static.jacksonville.com/files/mayormap/)
QuoteJust like Brown didn't really win against Hogan, Hogan lost the election
After 4 years, was that really hard to say?
Of course your boy crushed even more in that area of town you love to bash in Mandarin at over 69% with more voters.
Quote from: stephendare on May 20, 2015, 08:47:06 PM
Quote from: Kay on May 20, 2015, 08:36:49 PM
Quote from: stephendare on May 20, 2015, 04:04:05 PM
In the Alvin Brown race, apparently Rusty Mead, who had formerly been a part of the LGBT coalition, was encouraging people to not vote for mayor, and I think that was a factor.
If Alvin had simply embraced and publicly met with the LGBT community that would have given him another couple of thousand votes.
Kim Scott was a factor in this election.
Calivin Burney was a factor as well (something that was made vividly clear to us last night at the Mike Williams victory party)
The treatment of Theresa Price hurt him.
Refusing to answer Delores Weavers phone calls after he became mayor cost him.
But I think no other issue cost him as many votes as the HRO.
He pissed off Republican straight allies and LGBT people alike by treating the issue as though it was a conference of death eaters and The Gays were just another name for he who shall not be named.
If I had to pick a single issue that it boiled down to for Alvin it would be the HRO and his weird non answers after confronted about it.
It was more influential on the race than Curry's campaign was, I suspect.
So cops didn't like Burney? Didn't realize they frequented the world of planning.
they don't but lobbyists frequent anyplace that winning candidates celebrate. ;)
Or anyplace with an open bar.
Quote from: Kay on May 20, 2015, 08:36:49 PM
Quote from: stephendare on May 20, 2015, 04:04:05 PM
In the Alvin Brown race, apparently Rusty Mead, who had formerly been a part of the LGBT coalition, was encouraging people to not vote for mayor, and I think that was a factor.
If Alvin had simply embraced and publicly met with the LGBT community that would have given him another couple of thousand votes.
Kim Scott was a factor in this election.
Calivin Burney was a factor as well (something that was made vividly clear to us last night at the Mike Williams victory party)
The treatment of Theresa Price hurt him.
Refusing to answer Delores Weavers phone calls after he became mayor cost him.
But I think no other issue cost him as many votes as the HRO.
He pissed off Republican straight allies and LGBT people alike by treating the issue as though it was a conference of death eaters and The Gays were just another name for he who shall not be named.
If I had to pick a single issue that it boiled down to for Alvin it would be the HRO and his weird non answers after confronted about it.
It was more influential on the race than Curry's campaign was, I suspect.
So cops didn't like Burney? Didn't realize they frequented the world of planning.
To me, it's quite simple. I don't think Brown being in support of HRO would have made a significant difference in the outcome. Curry was a better candidate than Hogan and was effective in getting those who stayed home four years to come this time around. This is one of the most conservative cities of its size in the country. Brown barely won (surprisingly) four years ago. Hogan did everything he could to scare the wits out of everyone but tea partiers and he still barely lost.
Curry obviously didn't scare the bejesus out of moderates. Looks like he got most of Bishop's moderate votes as well. In my case, I ended up voting Brown but really didn't lose sleep worrying about the results or waste energy getting involved in the debates because, at the end of the day, there's not much difference between Brown or Curry. Either way, Jax will be Jax. The economy is continuing to improve and there's a level of tactical urbanism in the city, that's pulling things in a positive direction, regardless of who's in city hall. 4 years ago, I don't believe that was the case with Hogan's platform and the economy in general. We would have been in real trouble with the platform he was running.
QuoteBut Republicans were far more interested in this year's campaign than they were in May 2011 when Mike Hogan, the Republican standard-bearer, lost to Brown. Curry attracted about 6,400 more Republicans to the polls than Hogan did.
In the end, Curry beat Brown by 5,285 votes.
Michael Binder, an assistant professor of political science at UNF, said Brown benefited four years ago from moderate Republicans rejecting Hogan and landing in Brown's column. This time, they moved back to the Republican candidate, giving Curry the edge.
"In places like the Beaches that maybe are more moderate, they went with Curry this time heavily," Binder said.
Full article: http://jacksonville.com/news/metro/2015-05-20/story/how-did-lenny-curry-win-mayoral-race-republican-vote-came-out-force
Quote from: thelakelander on May 21, 2015, 07:41:42 AM
Quote from: Kay on May 20, 2015, 08:36:49 PM
Quote from: stephendare on May 20, 2015, 04:04:05 PM
In the Alvin Brown race, apparently Rusty Mead, who had formerly been a part of the LGBT coalition, was encouraging people to not vote for mayor, and I think that was a factor.
If Alvin had simply embraced and publicly met with the LGBT community that would have given him another couple of thousand votes.
Kim Scott was a factor in this election.
Calivin Burney was a factor as well (something that was made vividly clear to us last night at the Mike Williams victory party)
The treatment of Theresa Price hurt him.
Refusing to answer Delores Weavers phone calls after he became mayor cost him.
But I think no other issue cost him as many votes as the HRO.
He pissed off Republican straight allies and LGBT people alike by treating the issue as though it was a conference of death eaters and The Gays were just another name for he who shall not be named.
If I had to pick a single issue that it boiled down to for Alvin it would be the HRO and his weird non answers after confronted about it.
It was more influential on the race than Curry's campaign was, I suspect.
So cops didn't like Burney? Didn't realize they frequented the world of planning.
To me, it's quite simple. I don't think Brown being in support of HRO would have made a significant difference in the outcome. Curry was a better candidate than Hogan and was effective in getting those who stayed home four years to come this time around. This is one of the most conservative cities of its size in the country. Brown barely won (surprisingly) four years ago. Hogan did everything he could to scare the wits out of everyone but tea partiers and he still barely lost.
Curry obviously didn't scare the bejesus out of moderates. Looks like he got most of Bishop's moderate votes as well. In my case, I ended up voting Brown but really didn't lose sleep worrying about the results or waste energy getting involved in the debates because, at the end of the day, there's not much difference between Brown or Curry. Either way, Jax will be Jax. The economy is continuing to improve and there's a level of tactical urbanism in the city, that's pulling things in a positive direction, regardless of who's in city hall. 4 years ago, I don't believe that was the case with Hogan's platform and the economy in general. We would have been in real trouble with the platform he was running.
QuoteBut Republicans were far more interested in this year's campaign than they were in May 2011 when Mike Hogan, the Republican standard-bearer, lost to Brown. Curry attracted about 6,400 more Republicans to the polls than Hogan did.
In the end, Curry beat Brown by 5,285 votes.
Michael Binder, an assistant professor of political science at UNF, said Brown benefited four years ago from moderate Republicans rejecting Hogan and landing in Brown's column. This time, they moved back to the Republican candidate, giving Curry the edge.
"In places like the Beaches that maybe are more moderate, they went with Curry this time heavily," Binder said.
Full article: http://jacksonville.com/news/metro/2015-05-20/story/how-did-lenny-curry-win-mayoral-race-republican-vote-came-out-force
I think your election analysis is spot on, but I agree with the article that if Brown had taken a stand on HRO, he would have at least gotten closer. It would have boosted his base turnout a bit and made him look less wishy-washy, which might would have let him hold some moderate voters that he had last time.
I disagree somewhat on the importance of the election though. The mayor can either create momentum (Delaney) or eliminate it (Peyton) when it comes to urban issues. JAX is already decades behind and can't afford to piss away another eight years. Like electing Brown and Peyton before him, Curry is a real crap shoot choice. It may turn out good or even great, but it could go the other way too, and by extension, so could the issues we care about on this forum.
^Oh, I agree that the mayor's election is important. But in this particular case, neither guy was head and shoulders above the other. Jax isn't going to fall further behind or get further ahead with either guy holding the office. For the most part, from what I could tell, their positions were pretty similar across the board....when it came to the things that the mayor can actually address.
With that said, can any Curry insiders encourage the team to find a way to get Bill Killingsworth back to Jax!
The way I see it, it wasn't Brown's antipathy toward the HRO or any other single issue that did him in. Rather, they were symptoms of the prevailing mindset and actions that cost him the election. If he hadn't been so weak on the leadership and management end, he would have surrounded himself with better people and listened to his top supporters. If he had surrounded himself with better people and listened to his top supporters, he wouldn't have been so weak on the budgets, the pension, crime and other major issues (including the HRO). Then he wouldn't have lost Rummell, the Civic Council, the Chamber, and others, and he would have been very hard to beat.
Brown clearly understood that he wasn't going to win reelection with the same 97k votes that got him in in 2011 - another Rep candidate wasn't going to lose as many supporters as Hogan. He knew he had to build support, but he targeted the wrong group. He courted the Tea Party vote with his anti-tax stance, his avoidance of nearly every Democrat issue and individual (including the president), his cozying up to Governor Scott, and his opposition to the HRO. But it turns out that group wasn't going to turn for a Democrat in mass, and meanwhile Brown's actions ended up turning off a lot of Democrats and moderates. The strategy was a wash, and he ended up with about the same number of voters he got last time, while Curry, not being Hogan, got by him with 103k votes.
I agree it's partly a matter of perception, but again, if he had governed... differently, he wouldn't have lost, for instance, Peter Rummell and lot of other people.
On the HRO, I agree, taking that up would have mitigated the Tea Party stances. But by the same token, I believe that if Curry had come out for the HRO, and possibly a few other "moderate" issues, he also would have carried the election away. There's a limit to how much of that he could do without alienating the hardcore conservatives, but a a few Nixon in China-style tweaks would have made it difficult to beat him.
Received our thank you letter from Anna:
Dear X and O
Words cannot adequately express the depth of my gratitude for your support, prayers and friendship. Tuesday night was an amazing night and there are so many of you who played a role in this great campaign.
I have met so many people during this experience and look forward to working for you and addressing the issues that are important to Jacksonville and all of Duval County. I am blessed and honored to be elected to serve this great City and please know that my door is always open to all.
Onward, upward, and excited to get to work!
Sincerely,
Anna (her signature)
Quote from: Know Growth on May 20, 2015, 04:11:07 PM
Happy Birthday! -From Lenny Curry
Yep,today received in the mail a Happy Birthday post card from Lenny Curry. 3428 Beach Blvd.
I simply must acknowledge this savvy campaign effort, which utilized public records to access voter's birth dates that fell within the campaign cycle.
Is Mr. Curry really My Buddy!.....will I receive a card next year? ;D
Likely "off thread"- apology.
Quote from: stephendare on May 20, 2015, 04:04:05 PM
In the Alvin Brown race, apparently Rusty Mead, who had formerly been a part of the LGBT coalition, was encouraging people to not vote for mayor, and I think that was a factor.
If Alvin had simply embraced and publicly met with the LGBT community that would have given him another couple of thousand votes.
Kim Scott was a factor in this election.
Calivin Burney was a factor as well (something that was made vividly clear to us last night at the Mike Williams victory party)
The treatment of Theresa Price hurt him.
Refusing to answer Delores Weavers phone calls after he became mayor cost him.
But I think no other issue cost him as many votes as the HRO.
He pissed off Republican straight allies and LGBT people alike by treating the issue as though it was a conference of death eaters and The Gays were just another name for he who shall not be named.
If I had to pick a single issue that it boiled down to for Alvin it would be the HRO and his weird non answers after confronted about it.
It was more influential on the race than Curry's campaign was, I suspect.
A couple of days past election and there is discussion about lackluster black vote. Thoughts?