Election Day Live Coverage
(http://photos.metrojacksonville.com/Politics/Assorted-political-images/i-rgvZF2H/0/O/avoteflag.jpg)
First of all: GO VOTE! We will be covering the election all day long from the annex HQ in Riverside with Ben America and analysis all day long. Check here for constant updates and gossip from the campaigns as we will be monitoring the votes as they come in! Cross your fingers for a Fool Free City Council!
Read More: http://www.metrojacksonville.com/article/2015-may-election-day-live-coverage
Yes, vote vote vote!!!
Jerry Holland says we'll have a higher turnout than in March:
QuoteSupervisor of Elections Jerry Holland is calling for 40- to 42-percent turnout before the polls close at 7 p.m. -- more than the primary in March and more than the city election four years ago.
Sunday night, when the 18 early voting places closed, more than 60,000 people had voted early and 46,500 more had mailed in absentee ballots with verified signatures.
http://www.news4jax.com/politics/40-turnout-expected-in-jacksonville-election/33086456
Good on Jax for being involved, let's see how high we can get the turnout.
Interestingly enough, Twitter being used as a huge social media platform....yet Mayor Brown has had an account since 2010 and only has 1,179 tweets on one site and 4,000 on another and Curry with over 9000 tweets, but he has been tweeting since 2009.
https://twitter.com/AlvinForMayor?lang=en (https://twitter.com/AlvinForMayor?lang=en)
https://twitter.com/MayorAlvinBrown?lang=en (https://twitter.com/MayorAlvinBrown?lang=en)
vs
https://twitter.com/lennycurry?lang=en&lang=en
Interestingly enough Part 2.....you rarely see any ads or pictures of Alvin Brown and his family, but you see a ton of Curry and his amazing wife Molly, who is really as much about the campaign as Brown. Great job by Curry to get out and make women votes count too!
Quote from: mtraininjax on May 19, 2015, 10:48:27 AM
Interestingly enough, Twitter being used as a huge social media platform....yet Mayor Brown has had an account since 2010 and only has 1,179 tweets on one site and 4,000 on another and Curry with over 9000 tweets, but he has been tweeting since 2009.
https://twitter.com/AlvinForMayor?lang=en (https://twitter.com/AlvinForMayor?lang=en)
https://twitter.com/MayorAlvinBrown?lang=en (https://twitter.com/MayorAlvinBrown?lang=en)
vs
https://twitter.com/lennycurry?lang=en&lang=en
Interestingly enough Part 2.....you rarely see any ads or pictures of Alvin Brown and his family, but you see a ton of Curry and his amazing wife Molly, who is really as much about the campaign as Brown. Great job by Curry to get out and make women votes count too!
My take on the part 2 is Alvin is less inclined to use his family for political marketing.
Brown's great political failure is the failure to systematically communicate.
Main twitter:
#jaxpol
Secondary twitter:
#jaxelections
Metrojacksonville twitter handle:
@metroj
Quote from: mtraininjax on May 19, 2015, 10:48:27 AM
Interestingly enough, Twitter being used as a huge social media platform....yet Mayor Brown has had an account since 2010 and only has 1,179 tweets on one site and 4,000 on another and Curry with over 9000 tweets, but he has been tweeting since 2009.
https://twitter.com/AlvinForMayor?lang=en (https://twitter.com/AlvinForMayor?lang=en)
https://twitter.com/MayorAlvinBrown?lang=en (https://twitter.com/MayorAlvinBrown?lang=en)
vs
https://twitter.com/lennycurry?lang=en&lang=en
LOL, the parody Alvin Brown account almost has more tweets:
https://twitter.com/jaxmayorbrown
It looks like Lenny Curry didn't really start tweeting until December 2013. He averages about 6.3 tweets a day vs Mayor Brown at 3.8. Check out the pretty graphs for more detailed analysis.
http://www.tweetstats.com/graphs/mayoralvinbrown (http://www.tweetstats.com/graphs/mayoralvinbrown)
http://www.tweetstats.com/status/alvinformayor (http://www.tweetstats.com/status/alvinformayor)
http://www.tweetstats.com/graphs/lennycurry (http://www.tweetstats.com/graphs/lennycurry)
Quote from: TheCat on May 19, 2015, 10:55:51 AM
Quote from: mtraininjax on May 19, 2015, 10:48:27 AM
Interestingly enough, Twitter being used as a huge social media platform....yet Mayor Brown has had an account since 2010 and only has 1,179 tweets on one site and 4,000 on another and Curry with over 9000 tweets, but he has been tweeting since 2009.
https://twitter.com/AlvinForMayor?lang=en (https://twitter.com/AlvinForMayor?lang=en)
https://twitter.com/MayorAlvinBrown?lang=en (https://twitter.com/MayorAlvinBrown?lang=en)
vs
https://twitter.com/lennycurry?lang=en&lang=en
Interestingly enough Part 2.....you rarely see any ads or pictures of Alvin Brown and his family, but you see a ton of Curry and his amazing wife Molly, who is really as much about the campaign as Brown. Great job by Curry to get out and make women votes count too!
My take on the part 2 is Alvin is less inclined to use his family for political marketing.
I'm going to jump in and defend Brown on the family thing as well. My dad did the same thing with us, we rarely attended events and very rarely did ads. Some people just want a separate family life. It doesn't reflect poorly on Brown at all; if anything it says a lot about his commitment as a family man.
Bottom line, come this evening about 50% of those who voted will be happy and 50% will be unhappy. And I could care less how those that didn't vote feel. Regardless who wins I think the city will survive and be fine. One reason I believe this and it is a big hope, and that is we will hopefully have a stronger CC with the likes of Brosche, Hazouri and King. Honestly to me, the bigger indictment on our city in this election is if we actually would vote a nut job like Daniels back into office over Brosche.
^ Don't forget Ferraro over King....or Youngblood over Hazzouri....at least one of those is thankfully not likely to happen....but if either did, it would be about as bad as Daniels beating Brosche
Turnout as of 11:30 AM
(https://41.media.tumblr.com/04d65cf7f16a65d78ce18dd8caa8c78d/tumblr_nolsyz5iwB1rjfxgpo1_1280.png)
Quote from: tufsu1 on May 19, 2015, 11:38:47 AM
^ Don't forget Ferraro over King....or Youngblood over Hazzouri....at least one of those is thankfully not likely to happen....but if either did, it would be about as bad as Daniels beating Brosche
I can agree on Hazouri race is up there but still not at same level as Daniels race IMO. Not so much on King race as that is not a citywide race and in individual districts based on the party regisrtation one party may have a much bigger disadvantage due to alignment.
"We have almost tripled what was (spent) in the previous mayoral race," Election Supervisor Jerry Holland said last week."The dollars are just amazing."
You know I've have seen this quote by Jerry Holland making the rounds about whats been spent on the election and its not amazing. It is sad. Some 8+ million dollars wasted on bad flyers and tv ads.
The Democratic GOTV efforts will trickle down to the council elections. Unfortunately that may mean another 4 years of Kim Daniels.
Turnout Tracking
(https://41.media.tumblr.com/7cf9a7952bc928e4628619148f8915bd/tumblr_nolu8rQSUc1rjfxgpo1_1280.png)
(https://41.media.tumblr.com/21fe3ef5ad5b5e6d1d890c0c17555cdf/tumblr_nolul49HAm1rjfxgpo1_540.png)
With the way indys polled, it is hard to tell.
Here is where we are in the turnout tracker at 12:20
(https://40.media.tumblr.com/76cea94a64123b8c3b1acbe009f3fe5d/tumblr_nolv03OK7f1rjfxgpo1_540.png)
I'm not sure you can rest so easily on the distinction between democrat and republican. There are still a lot of 'Southern' democrats, i.e. conservative dems that vote both sides of the aisle.
Tracking Votes Per Minute and seeing a dropoff.
(https://40.media.tumblr.com/8c655ff82e02fa19efffb24d268acf7e/tumblr_nolvjeUlLI1rjfxgpo1_540.png)
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 12:41:56 PM
Quote from: icarus on May 19, 2015, 12:37:51 PM
I'm not sure you can rest so easily on the distinction between democrat and republican. There are still a lot of 'Southern' democrats, i.e. conservative dems that vote both sides of the aisle.
true, and in this election more so than the last one (at least anecdotally) Ive met a whole bunch of libertarian leaning republicans who voted alvin. Those lines are becoming more permeable I suspect.
I wouldn't venture to say that applied to all political races but my experience, after decades in this town, is that the mayoral election in particular can not be judged purely along party lines. I'm just hoping the GOTV effort doesn't end up with too much collateral damage in the other races.
Doing some district numbers:
District 2:
Mail: 3,966
EV: 4,148
ED: 3,559
Prov: 2
Total Votes Cast: 11,675
Votes over lunch.
(https://41.media.tumblr.com/3d51324699650439f7260624988ac0d3/tumblr_nolxcjSCSy1rjfxgpo1_540.png)
This chart shows the number of votes per ten minutes in the March election. It gives you an indication of performance trends.
(https://41.media.tumblr.com/86a42b5ddf98e328f7c7e18eae06701e/tumblr_nolxuySl3r1rjfxgpo1_540.png)
Current Turnout Tracking as of 1:30 PM
(https://36.media.tumblr.com/5ab6834922a250b27ee0dc8274169bc1/tumblr_noly7cUjs21rjfxgpo1_540.png)
Historically Reps do better in the second election.
Here is turnout at 1:30 PM
(https://36.media.tumblr.com/b73dba4c76f99203aab92eedb01dcfe8/tumblr_nolyiei1rM1rjfxgpo1_540.png)
(https://36.media.tumblr.com/21420180286bf611a55cd3291b9180b9/tumblr_nolyu5vn591uw5dzao1_540.png)
Voter Turnout taken at 1:48PM
We saw it looking at the numbers earlier in the year. Based on the last three local elections Republican turnout goes up during runoff.
According to my grandfather, Reps also take the lead after 5 pm, when the workday ends. ;)
Tracking last election, turnout appears to be trending higher. We will get into where next.
(https://scontent-mia.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xat1/v/t1.0-9/11253893_1588585744740776_5728570547340014213_n.png?oh=809c6a51ab90419ac18cf5adddc1ee1d&oe=56056D6A)
(https://40.media.tumblr.com/7ab47d8323db00254efd15611496cd4d/tumblr_nolze3wzun1uw5dzao1_1280.png)
Election Results at 2 PM.
Have we seen any exit polling yet?
Quote from: Tacachale on May 19, 2015, 02:06:23 PM
Have we seen any exit polling yet?
Exit polls indicate it is a boy. ;)
Quote from: HoganJoseph on May 19, 2015, 02:13:14 PM
Quote from: Tacachale on May 19, 2015, 02:06:23 PM
Have we seen any exit polling yet?
Exit polls indicate it is a boy. ;)
Haha, congrats, Joseph. What an exciting day.
(https://40.media.tumblr.com/fc724d0490800aa61a0834fc918677ad/tumblr_nolzupwyv01uw5dzao1_1280.png)
2:10 PM Election Results By Party.
(https://36.media.tumblr.com/262add4ee9c02793fdf993c2dcec1e6c/tumblr_nom0b8rOhV1uw5dzao1_540.png)
2:20 PM Election Results
(http://lemmingplaza.tumblr.com/image/119376236422)
2:30 PM Turnout by Party.
(https://40.media.tumblr.com/70f6a0f5a4b9814f56dbbc0e94c6f484/tumblr_nom0r153MF1uw5dzao1_540.png)
2:30 PM election results
Where is everyone getting the graphs/data from? I don't see it on the the "unofficial results" page? http://enr.electionsfl.org/DUV/Summary/1276
(https://41.media.tumblr.com/a57a1ad6f29289a09cb403074d3c95bf/tumblr_nom17wf5Nv1uw5dzao1_1280.png)
2:40 Pm election results
(https://40.media.tumblr.com/d3a5844b599460d37e4fe2833185bd93/tumblr_nom1o69zKZ1uw5dzao1_1280.png)
2:50 PM turnout results by party
Vote tracking - Dem vote lead 1:45 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CFY9zaOUkAIZNF_.png)
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 12:52:39 PM
Just heard from Anna Brosche:
"Feeling excited and at peace, all at the same time. Very grateful for such an incredible journey and experience"
Honestly, that is not a very optimistic comment.
She's fine
(https://41.media.tumblr.com/d69f11de06e7ed4e226fb29647e0204c/tumblr_nom24saDta1uw5dzao1_1280.png)
3 Pm Voter turnout
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 03:00:01 PM
Quote from: edjax on May 19, 2015, 02:57:37 PM
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 12:52:39 PM
Just heard from Anna Brosche:
"Feeling excited and at peace, all at the same time. Very grateful for such an incredible journey and experience"
Honestly, that is not a very optimistic comment.
From her it is. She has a pretty serene personality.
Sure hope you are right!!
(https://41.media.tumblr.com/0a9b3b77c7ad462732862f0212e10256/tumblr_nom2nspdzZ1uw5dzao1_1280.png)
3:10 PM election turnout by party
(https://36.media.tumblr.com/f8caa02eb95ce3a2282d6627dc97dde8/tumblr_nom32p5AMs1uw5dzao1_1280.png) 3:20 pm voter turnout by party
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 03:19:32 PM
We are hearing that there is low voter turnout amongst democrats in Districts 9 and 10.
Not a good sign for Brown and the at-large Dems.
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 03:23:26 PM
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 03:19:32 PM
We are hearing that there is low voter turnout amongst democrats in Districts 9 and 10.
9 and 10 are some of the heaviest african american voters in the county.
Could this perhaps be because of extensive early voting, or a history of more voting from these districts occurring later in the day (I dimly seem to recall the latter from the 2011 election)?
(https://40.media.tumblr.com/2757edaa1a52c8b38adc8f35862322da/tumblr_nom3jfHEC61uw5dzao1_1280.png)
3:30 Pm voter turnout results by party
Haven't read all of todays posts yet but must say that I am thrilled with how involved and proactive this forum has become when it comes to Jacksonville politics. I mean thrilled! It is this type of attention and interaction that will change things in our city when it comes to how we select our representatives. The current election is also showing us that there is definitely a shift in voting patterns happening in Duval. Good stuff people. :)
(https://40.media.tumblr.com/b66ef0ec94eca626017f1be6d36cc489/tumblr_nom3zqazLX1uw5dzao1_540.png)
3:40 PM voter turnout by party
Starting to look like the differential between Dem and Rep votes is stabilizing ... at least based on the past hour or so.
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 19, 2015, 03:36:03 PM
Haven't read all of todays posts yet but must say that I am thrilled with how involved and proactive this forum has become when it comes to Jacksonville politics. I mean thrilled! It is this type of attention and interaction that will change things in our city when it comes to how we select our representatives. The current election is also showing us that there is definitely a shift in voting patterns happening in Duval. Good stuff people. :)
Yep, and part of that credit goes to you for posting good info on debates and candidates!
Looks like about 15k short now of total voter turnout in March election of approx 179,250.
(https://40.media.tumblr.com/32d4fe6ee04d3094f4d6c06ab8b0ea6f/tumblr_nom4gzfbvs1uw5dzao1_1280.png)
3:40 PM voter turnout by party
This is a performance comparison between election day votes and votes cast before today.
This is a comparison of how many votes have already been cast today compared to all the early voting that was cast within the past few weeks.
So for example, District 14 has already cast 70% of the votes today that is cast in total early voting.
(https://41.media.tumblr.com/6de47d496aaf61883ff3b2d2efacaeef/tumblr_nom4pdthih1rjfxgpo1_540.png)
District Turnout performance
(https://36.media.tumblr.com/62aaf29dbcff2d865f71c59a78d751c9/tumblr_nom4ugHlZ61rjfxgpo1_540.png)
(https://41.media.tumblr.com/25579a84a7c8167211fc172da1a64627/tumblr_nom4yxPjda1uw5dzao1_1280.png)
Voter turnout at 4PM by party
District 6 is massive. 48k voters whereas 8 only has 36k registered.
(https://40.media.tumblr.com/de4635f703ba5be0af58e4527f568c07/tumblr_nom5egeegJ1uw5dzao1_540.png)
4:10 PM voter turnout by party.
Quote@metroj 5,281 votes out of 41,502 (12.7%) came from D9 and D10 from 3:30pm - 7pm in 1st Election #jaxpol #FlaPol
https://twitter.com/iElectApp/status/600746999261040640 (https://twitter.com/iElectApp/status/600746999261040640)
Quote from: coredumped on May 19, 2015, 03:47:33 PM
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 19, 2015, 03:36:03 PM
Haven't read all of todays posts yet but must say that I am thrilled with how involved and proactive this forum has become when it comes to Jacksonville politics. I mean thrilled! It is this type of attention and interaction that will change things in our city when it comes to how we select our representatives. The current election is also showing us that there is definitely a shift in voting patterns happening in Duval. Good stuff people. :)
Yep, and part of that credit goes to you for posting good info on debates and candidates!
Thank you for those words. This is all such a good thing.
(https://36.media.tumblr.com/32ed2da324df3b1003f242e379631f03/tumblr_nom5nuy8uv1rjfxgpo1_400.png)
The minority districts have certainly mobilized this election. I will be so interested to see tonight's totals.
(https://41.media.tumblr.com/9407cf9f82ef891064d964059c779187/tumblr_nom5uh1b1C1uw5dzao1_1280.png)
4:20 PM Voter turnout
And then the rain came...
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-6NF59abeYL4/VVuavqXq2_I/AAAAAAAAD0E/h6tAVKREvOI/w438-h402-no/Beautiful%2BWeather%2BGraphs%2Band%2BMaps%2B%2B%2BWeatherSpark.png)
Lots of eyes on District 2. Here is the turnout by precinct.
(https://36.media.tumblr.com/40677df75e72f36734f86b9effa71b4e/tumblr_nom6axNuKw1rjfxgpo1_540.png)
(https://41.media.tumblr.com/3361047bc6fbd913c78767c3a2b070cd/tumblr_nom6biZ7f51uw5dzao1_1280.png)
4:30 PM voter turnout
(https://41.media.tumblr.com/331d9ce0ba4e22ac53db67c77a11880a/tumblr_nom6r6ffcW1uw5dzao1_540.png)
4:40 PM voter turnout results
Quote from: coredumped on May 19, 2015, 03:47:33 PM
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 19, 2015, 03:36:03 PM
Haven't read all of todays posts yet but must say that I am thrilled with how involved and proactive this forum has become when it comes to Jacksonville politics. I mean thrilled! It is this type of attention and interaction that will change things in our city when it comes to how we select our representatives. The current election is also showing us that there is definitely a shift in voting patterns happening in Duval. Good stuff people. :)
Yep, and part of that credit goes to you for posting good info on debates and candidates!
Agree! Whatever turnout and results, Diane has provided the most insightful information, links to candidates, honest opinions, and engagements with MJ concerning local elections in 2015. I'd tip my hat if i had one, or was a hipster.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CFZWvDaVIAEXJ5X.png)
4:30 Voter Turnout Results by Party
(https://41.media.tumblr.com/3b68ced1a43ae67b901c87cdb56579dd/tumblr_nom7a4lvhW1uw5dzao1_1280.png)
4:50 PM voter turnout
If these numbers continue to hold out, it could be trouble for Democrats in the countywide races. In 2011, there 10k more Democrats voted versus Republicans, and Brown only won by 1,600. Currently, the Democrats have a lead of less than 4k voters.
That said, there are a LOT of independents in the polls. They may prove even more influential than usual in the outcome of this race.
(https://40.media.tumblr.com/6774b1d784bbd685f1ec5ca8e48a0dff/tumblr_nom8601iEZ1uw5dzao1_540.png)
5:10 PM election turnout results
Quote from: Jax native on May 19, 2015, 04:47:52 PM
Quote from: coredumped on May 19, 2015, 03:47:33 PM
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 19, 2015, 03:36:03 PM
Haven't read all of todays posts yet but must say that I am thrilled with how involved and proactive this forum has become when it comes to Jacksonville politics. I mean thrilled! It is this type of attention and interaction that will change things in our city when it comes to how we select our representatives. The current election is also showing us that there is definitely a shift in voting patterns happening in Duval. Good stuff people. :)
Yep, and part of that credit goes to you for posting good info on debates and candidates!
Agree! Whatever turnout and results, Diane has provided the most insightful information, links to candidates, honest opinions, and engagements with MJ concerning local elections in 2015. I'd tip my hat if i had one, or was a hipster.
You are making me smile. :)
I knew the mayor and sheriffs race would be tight and will live with whatever the result is. The one race that has me worried is At Large One Kimberly Daniels and Anna Brosche. First cycle some republicans blindly voted for Taylor in spite of his sketchy background. I am now concerned that some democrats will do the same in the case of Daniels. It would be a damn shame for us to lose the chance to have Anna on the council. This of course is my view as a democrat. I hope other dems will vote Brosche regardless of party.
District turnout percentage as of 5:10 PM
(https://41.media.tumblr.com/410d7281e1587b78b51b5042badb58cb/tumblr_nom8gmBTYI1rjfxgpo1_540.png)
District 8 is so hot for two reasons. One Springfield, two the shipyards. Both are going to be sizable financial factors in the future of this district.
(https://41.media.tumblr.com/97c7dd3702b809898b727dfeeabc2829/tumblr_nom8n3Ys1i1uw5dzao1_540.png)
5:20 Pm voter turnout results
Quote from: lemmingplaza on May 19, 2015, 05:11:41 PM
(https://40.media.tumblr.com/6774b1d784bbd685f1ec5ca8e48a0dff/tumblr_nom8601iEZ1uw5dzao1_540.png)
5:10 PM election turnout results
This passed the March totals.
I wonder who prayed harder to the rain gods Brown or Curry? lol Interesting downpour right as folks are leaving work to vote. Hope it passes before 7:00.
(https://36.media.tumblr.com/e8c571fd8480ac02995c8565e890e9d5/tumblr_nom8wenr5e1rjfxgpo1_540.png)
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 19, 2015, 05:17:45 PM
I knew the mayor and sheriffs race would be tight and will live with whatever the result is. The one race that has me worried is At Large One Kimberly Daniels and Anna Brosche. First cycle some republicans blindly voted for Taylor in spite of his sketchy background. I am now concerned that some democrats will do the same in the case of Daniels. It would be a damn shame for us to lose the chance to have Anna on the council. This of course is my view as a democrat. I hope other dems will vote Brosche regardless of party.
If independents are the ones to push Brown into office, they may be informed enough to kick Daniels out of office...
Goodness, you are probably right about that Stephen. Well a hour and a half more to go. Interesting evening ahead.
Quote(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CFZf4mWXIAIPXqw.png:large)
@iElectApp Mod Model v2: @AlvinForMayor wins by 1,457 over @lennycurry - .85%, if demo % hold. #jaxpol #flapol
5:20 PM - 19 May 2015
^Not sure I trust the "other" figure. We can check back later and see just how accurate these projections were. :)
(https://36.media.tumblr.com/dde87d194514fa68a99ec2e79d773742/tumblr_nom93lxedw1uw5dzao1_540.png)
5:30 PM voter turnout
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 19, 2015, 05:24:19 PM
I wonder who prayed harder to the rain gods Brown or Curry? lol Interesting downpour right as folks are leaving work to vote. Hope it passes before 7:00.
Curry, probably. Rain typically reduces turnout, and reduces it more among Democrats than Republicans.
Researchers actually did a study about this for presidential elections, The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather,
Turnout, and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections (http://myweb.fsu.edu/bgomez/GomezHansfordKrause_JOP_2007.pdf), by Brad T. Gomez, Thomas G. Hansford, and George A. Krause.
(https://40.media.tumblr.com/204263ecc6d241db02c9eb6400e819a8/tumblr_nom9jdhT3l1uw5dzao1_540.png)
5:40 PM voter turnout results
Where is this live data coming from?
This was provided by a Facebook friend, thought you guize might like it.
(https://scontent-mia.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/v/t1.0-9/11205052_10152784713245936_223690416467181246_n.jpg?oh=7877333545d9a07dfda0e37f57e1dafb&oe=55FDBB3B)
(https://41.media.tumblr.com/a8f4fd50b76ea89efb7cf6bb8476ca61/tumblr_noma03ziqv1uw5dzao1_540.png)
5:50 PM voter turnout results
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 05:59:57 PM
And by the way, seriously congratulations to Ben America's political operations here. With the help of Tom Ross and Jeff Brown this has been a first rate, numbers powered discussion and coverage. The best full time coverage in the City, I suspect. (as it was on election day last March as well).
Thanks guys for making this look easy (its not!)
+1
(https://41.media.tumblr.com/4ffb01bb48a7c314c1a0c644acadf4b9/tumblr_nomahj7rjx1uw5dzao1_540.png)
6PM voter turnout results
Awesome job to all involved!
Question: did they write your ballot number on the ticket they give you? They were doing it at my Precinct. Which means technically they could tell how I voted.
Latest district turnout numbers
(https://40.media.tumblr.com/58f991531e72cb5bf4022fdb28987f11/tumblr_nomarsCyM91rjfxgpo1_540.png)
(https://41.media.tumblr.com/8820380166fe69508176d4420bdea197/tumblr_nomaxkhsO21uw5dzao1_540.png)
6:10 PM voter turnout results
Yes, this is outstanding. I really like this breakdown and timely information; thank you, thank you, thank you!
(https://40.media.tumblr.com/7a02d29429e6c93c3890d327a317bf10/tumblr_nombh1JgHm1uw5dzao1_540.png)
voter turnout results from 6:20 pm
They might be residents of their parents house still. Many students don't update their license/voter info when they go away to college.
Tell you what, next election cycle everyone will be looking to Metrojacksonville for updates and political discussion. :)
(https://40.media.tumblr.com/03bac56c99e0fe23b8421c99a9e068d4/tumblr_nombveVBWM1uw5dzao1_540.png)
voter turnout at 6:30 PM
(https://40.media.tumblr.com/7959b6cb7120c8a71feed511492f5d7b/tumblr_nomcbkJShT1uw5dzao1_540.png)
voter turnout results from 6:40 PM
This chart shows divergences in performance between Republicans and Democrats.
(https://40.media.tumblr.com/ccba08842edead352e9a0220cd35d732/tumblr_nomcoqDSkp1rjfxgpo1_540.png)
(https://40.media.tumblr.com/ff1ec083629945d14f7483935bad96af/tumblr_nomcsbhUwy1uw5dzao1_540.png)
Voter turnout results from 6:50
Decipher your live vote chart for me Ben. What does the portion between five and five thirty telling us? Did the rain impact the turnout or not?
Quote from: coredumped on May 19, 2015, 06:24:13 PM
They might be residents of their parents house still. Many students don't update their license/voter info when they go away to college.
Yeah, I didn't. I was in Tallahassee for five years for college and never voted in a local election.
Quote from: coredumped on May 19, 2015, 05:42:59 PM
Where is this live data coming from?
The turnout data by party and charts are straight from the Supervisor of Elections website
http://www.duvalelections.com/Election-Information/2015-Duval-General-Election-Voter-Turnout
As of 6:50
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CFZ2MxzWoAAk6if.png)
(https://40.media.tumblr.com/23eec2987ca2cbca60e9dc6b41d6bbee/tumblr_nomd9pUxST1uw5dzao1_540.png)
7PM voter turnout results
Absentee and early votes must be made public by 7:30. Other results will be released by the SOE every half hour. If some of the races are too close we may not know the winner in some races tonight. Absentee and early votes are being tabulated right now.
As of this moment there is a 3400 vote spread between Dem's and Rep's with a Dem lead.
(https://41.media.tumblr.com/9ab2272482be2030f32e0e04c06bd8de/tumblr_nomdq6LJUn1uw5dzao1_540.png)
7:10 PM voter turnout results
Mayors race :Right now Brown is at 49% and Curry at 50%
Sheriffs race:
Jefferson 50%
Williams 49%
At Large One
Brosche 55%
Daniels 44%
At Large 2
Hazour 57%
Youngblood 42%
At Large 3
Newby 49%
Pittman 50%
Just over 14% turn out with 143,741 cast votes with 87 out of 199 precincts reporting.
Hazouri 56%
Youngblood 44%
Curry 51%
Brown 49 % (right now)
(https://40.media.tumblr.com/31047dab9cca57bbdd8f832b9551fc23/tumblr_nome6odF921uw5dzao1_540.png)
7:20 PM voter turnout results
Which party had the lead in early voting?
ELECTION 2015: EARLY NUMBERS
Right now, with Early Voting completely counted, and vote by mail partially counted:
Mayor Alvin Brown -- 49.1%
Lenny Curry for Mayor -- 50.9%
Ken Jefferson For Sheriff -- 49.14%
Mike Williams For Sheriff -- 50.86%
WJXT4 The Local Station
Council District 1
Anania 46.75%
Morgan 53.25%
Newby and Pittman is deadlocked at a 50/50 split right now (44% reporting).
Council District 2
Ferraro 5.89%
King 44.11%
Council District 4
Day 37.25%
Wilson 72.75%
District 7
Gaffney 51.29%
Spencer 48.71%
District 8
Brown 53.35%
Felder 65.65%
(https://41.media.tumblr.com/31047dab9cca57bbdd8f832b9551fc23/tumblr_nomen9xcAL1uw5dzao1_1280.png)
7:30 PM voter turnout results
As long as Kimberly Daniels is gone I don't really care what else happens. ;D
Quote from: sheclown on May 19, 2015, 07:27:01 PM
ELECTION 2015: EARLY NUMBERS
Right now, with Early Voting completely counted, and vote by mail partially counted:
Mayor Alvin Brown -- 49.1%
Lenny Curry for Mayor -- 50.9%
Ken Jefferson For Sheriff -- 49.14%
Mike Williams For Sheriff -- 50.86%
WJXT4 The Local Station
Pretty much a dead heat for both the Mayor and Sheriffs race.
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 07:31:39 PM
Not looking good for Alvin right now. A 5k spread between the two.
79% reporting, time is running out.
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 07:31:39 PM
Not looking good for Alvin right now. A 5k spread between the two.
Currently there are 155 out of 199 precincts reported.
Newby up 51-49 on Pittman (79% reporting).
Both amendment issues are poised to pass. :)
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 19, 2015, 07:33:28 PM
Quote from: sheclown on May 19, 2015, 07:27:01 PM
ELECTION 2015: EARLY NUMBERS
Right now, with Early Voting completely counted, and vote by mail partially counted:
Mayor Alvin Brown -- 49.1%
Lenny Curry for Mayor -- 50.9%
Ken Jefferson For Sheriff -- 49.14%
Mike Williams For Sheriff -- 50.86%
WJXT4 The Local Station
Pretty much a dead heat for both the Mayor and Sheriffs race.
Nearly 5k vote lead for Curry with only about 34k yet to count is fairly significant. We shall see though.
Quote from: acme54321 on May 19, 2015, 07:32:24 PM
As long as Kimberly Daniels is gone I don't really care what else happens. ;D
I think that it's safe to say you (and I) will get your wish.
Quote from: I-10east on May 19, 2015, 07:38:49 PM
Quote from: acme54321 on May 19, 2015, 07:32:24 PM
As long as Kimberly Daniels is gone I don't really care what else happens. ;D
I think that it's safe to say you (and I) will get your wish.
+1
(https://41.media.tumblr.com/31047dab9cca57bbdd8f832b9551fc23/tumblr_nomf3mdSCn1uw5dzao1_540.png)
7:40 PM voter turnout report
Quote from: TheCat on May 19, 2015, 07:40:08 PM
Quote from: I-10east on May 19, 2015, 07:38:49 PM
Quote from: acme54321 on May 19, 2015, 07:32:24 PM
As long as Kimberly Daniels is gone I don't really care what else happens. ;D
I think that it's safe to say you (and I) will get your wish.
+1
+1000. Per my post earlier to me this particular race would have been more of an indictment on our city than the mayoral race.
Quote from: edjax on May 19, 2015, 07:38:42 PM
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 19, 2015, 07:33:28 PM
Quote from: sheclown on May 19, 2015, 07:27:01 PM
ELECTION 2015: EARLY NUMBERS
Right now, with Early Voting completely counted, and vote by mail partially counted:
Mayor Alvin Brown -- 49.1%
Lenny Curry for Mayor -- 50.9%
Ken Jefferson For Sheriff -- 49.14%
Mike Williams For Sheriff -- 50.86%
WJXT4 The Local Station
Pretty much a dead heat for both the Mayor and Sheriffs race.
Nearly 5k vote lead for Curry with only about 34k yet to count is fairly significant. We shall see though.
It is. I am trying to find out what districts are still unreported.
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 19, 2015, 07:42:21 PM
I am trying to find out what districts are still unreported.
You took the words right out of my mouth; If the unreported precincts are well-to-do suburban areas, Brown likely lost.
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 19, 2015, 07:42:21 PM
Quote from: edjax on May 19, 2015, 07:38:42 PM
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 19, 2015, 07:33:28 PM
Quote from: sheclown on May 19, 2015, 07:27:01 PM
ELECTION 2015: EARLY NUMBERS
Right now, with Early Voting completely counted, and vote by mail partially counted:
Mayor Alvin Brown -- 49.1%
Lenny Curry for Mayor -- 50.9%
Ken Jefferson For Sheriff -- 49.14%
Mike Williams For Sheriff -- 50.86%
WJXT4 The Local Station
Pretty much a dead heat for both the Mayor and Sheriffs race.
Nearly 5k vote lead for Curry with only about 34k yet to count is fairly significant. We shall see though.
It is. I am trying to find out what districts are still unreported.
Would have to take nearly 65% of remaining votes. And there really are a coup,r of districts that he would,be able to pull those types of numbers.
District 8 Gaffney and Spencer are tied 50% to 50%
Voter turn out now at 32.9 % with 180,368 votes cast
So with more Dems voting so far, do the results mean the independents went Rep and for Curry?
TV just said precincts not counted are traditionally Republican.
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 19, 2015, 07:47:28 PM
Voter turn out now at 32.9 % with 180,368 votes cast
Cast or counted?
(https://40.media.tumblr.com/b30e0645e3af0e15b4076148e6e0d467/tumblr_nomfkt6AUq1uw5dzao1_540.png)
7:50PM voter turnout report
It appears Alvin didn't get all the Dem votes.
I don't vote one party and many of my friends are the same way. I voted for 2 republicans and 4 democrats, so I don't think looking primarily at registered party is necessarily the best indicator anymore.
Looks like Lisa King is dropping badly behind. What a shame.
Quote from: brainstormer on May 19, 2015, 07:55:12 PM
I don't vote one party and many of my friends are the same way. I voted for 2 republicans and 4 democrats, so I don't think looking primarily at registered party is necessarily the best indicator anymore.
Same here. Voted 2 Republican and 3 Democrats.
Williams is now at 52% Jefferson 48% in Sheriffs race
(https://40.media.tumblr.com/b30e0645e3af0e15b4076148e6e0d467/tumblr_nomg2ifkWV1uw5dzao1_540.png)
8PM voter turnout
94% reporting, it's not looking good for Brown & Jefferson.
I think we have a new mayor.
Wow.
Quote from: Kay on May 19, 2015, 08:03:46 PM
I think we have a new mayor.
It sure looks that way. Don't think the votes are out there for Brown to pull this out.
And Lisa King got destroyed. Sad.
And won't Joe be disappointed when Kim Scott is still there.
Quote from: edjax on May 19, 2015, 11:24:21 AM
Bottom line, come this evening about 50% of those who voted will be happy and 50% will be unhappy. And I could care less how those that didn't vote feel. Regardless who wins I think the city will survive and be fine. One reason I believe this and it is a big hope, and that is we will hopefully have a stronger CC with the likes of Brosche, Hazouri and King. Honestly to me, the bigger indictment on our city in this election is if we actually would vote a nut job like Daniels back into office over Brosche.
Bump. I really feel this way.
Quote from: DuvalHusky on May 19, 2015, 08:06:18 PM
And Lisa King got destroyed. Sad.
Even sadder when her opponent is so weak and MIA.
Live coverage on FCN
http://www.firstcoastnews.com/story/news/politics/elections/2015/05/19/live-duval-county-coverage/27596411/
Quote from: I-10east on May 19, 2015, 08:03:25 PM
94% reporting, it's not looking good for Brown & Jefferson.
There was a power outage at the Myrtle precinct. But it did not impact the voting. The Jefferson campaign called to inform the SOE but the votes were not impacted.
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 08:11:50 PM
Quote from: Kay on May 19, 2015, 08:08:37 PM
Quote from: DuvalHusky on May 19, 2015, 08:06:18 PM
And Lisa King got destroyed. Sad.
Even sadder when her opponent is so weak and MIA.
she spent money on a campaign that raised her opponents name recognition.
Interesting point. The district is heavily Republican and many thought it a tough road for Lisa because of that.
"Where's Ferarro" It was a badly thought out strategy. Thanks John Daigle apparently.
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 08:11:50 PM
Quote from: Kay on May 19, 2015, 08:08:37 PM
Quote from: DuvalHusky on May 19, 2015, 08:06:18 PM
And Lisa King got destroyed. Sad.
Even sadder when her opponent is so weak and MIA.
she spent money on a campaign that raised her opponents name recognition.
"Where's Ferarro" It was a badly thought out strategy. Thanks John Daigle apparently.
For sure. Her opponent didn't even show up for debates. The district is a small and heavily GOP, the result of that is now in evidence.
The lawn guy didn't raise much money or even run a campaign. Lisa had the full podium at a number of venues and apparently failed to connect with the number of voters needed. She ran against a no show and lost. ouch.
What about people who voted for Bishop. Split between the two or majority to one candidate.
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 08:19:49 PM
Given how close the numbers for the mayor and sheriff line up, however,.....
Its not the usual thing.
I think that Lenny got elected partially because of Mike Williams popularity.
Lenny won because Brown was a weak leader for to much of his tenure. He was not a strong incumbent and the result is that he lost to a guy who basically didn't say too much for most of his campaign but just the fact that he offered a change was enough for many. I have repeatedly stated I was conflicted about this race. As it stands now it is my sincere hope that Curry moves from the far right and embraces Jacksonville as a varied whole where everyone's civil rights matter along with their safety and lifestyle. Fingers crossed in a big way.
Cannot tell you how happy I am that Anania did not win. Re Lisa King, everyone I spoke to who knows voters told me she probably could not win because it is such a heavily Republican district. I don't think it was her.
Quote from: fsquid on May 19, 2015, 08:24:21 PM
What about people who voted for Bishop. Split between the two or majority to one candidate.
They were split Squid. I was on the fence on this election since Bishop was out of the race. When the final votes come in I will be interested to see how many people who showed up to vote, did not vote in the Mayors race.
Ironically the last time a Jax mayor lost in the second term was Tommy Hazouri (who will win City Council Group 3 today) losing to Ed Austin in 1991.
Quote from: Kay on May 19, 2015, 08:29:53 PM
Cannot tell you how happy I am that Anania did not win. Re Lisa King, everyone I spoke to who knows voters told me she probably could not win because it is such a heavily Republican district. I don't think it was her.
I would agree Kay. They didn't bother to come an hear what the Dem had to say.
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 08:30:05 PM
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 19, 2015, 08:28:10 PM
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 08:19:49 PM
Given how close the numbers for the mayor and sheriff line up, however,.....
Its not the usual thing.
I think that Lenny got elected partially because of Mike Williams popularity.
Lenny won because Brown was a weak leader for to much of his tenure. He was not a strong incumbent and the result is that he lost to a guy who basically didn't say too much for most of his campaign but just the fact that he offered a change was enough for many. I have repeatedly stated I was conflicted about this race. As it stands now it is my sincere hope that Curry moves from the far right and embraces Jacksonville as a varied whole where everyone's civil rights matter along with their safety and lifestyle. Fingers crossed in a big way.
hes not that breed of guy Diane. I wish he was, but he isn't.
Hes a vindictive petty spirited person, and we've got four years of this guy.
There is a lot that won't get done now, and you can kiss the cultural spending good bye.
We shall see soon enough. I am thinking Curry will recognize that the cultural assets of this city have been a driver behind so many of the good things currently happening. I bet Khan is thinking he has to start from square one with a new mayor whose main supporter in the person of Rummell is not one of his favorite people.
97% reporting, no changes.
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 08:30:05 PM
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 19, 2015, 08:28:10 PM
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 08:19:49 PM
Given how close the numbers for the mayor and sheriff line up, however,.....
Its not the usual thing.
I think that Lenny got elected partially because of Mike Williams popularity.
Lenny won because Brown was a weak leader for to much of his tenure. He was not a strong incumbent and the result is that he lost to a guy who basically didn't say too much for most of his campaign but just the fact that he offered a change was enough for many. I have repeatedly stated I was conflicted about this race. As it stands now it is my sincere hope that Curry moves from the far right and embraces Jacksonville as a varied whole where everyone's civil rights matter along with their safety and lifestyle. Fingers crossed in a big way.
hes not that breed of guy Diane. I wish he was, but he isn't.
Hes a vindictive petty spirited person, and we've got four years of this guy.
There is a lot that won't get done now, and you can kiss the cultural spending good bye.
Well, I hope you'll be pleasantly surprised.
Well, if he remains under Delaney's tutelage...we may do okay.
Happy about Anna Brosche and Tommy H.
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 19, 2015, 08:31:23 PM
Quote from: Kay on May 19, 2015, 08:29:53 PM
Cannot tell you how happy I am that Anania did not win. Re Lisa King, everyone I spoke to who knows voters told me she probably could not win because it is such a heavily Republican district. I don't think it was her.
I would agree Kay. They didn't bother to come an hear what the Dem had to say.
Pretty much. It's essentially a one-party district, like several others.
What about Gaffney and Spencer?
I am over the moon that Jacksonville showed Kimberly Daniels the door. That is the highlight of this race for me.
Quote from: sheclown on May 19, 2015, 08:36:24 PM
What about Gaffney and Spencer?
My guess is we will see a recount.
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 19, 2015, 08:33:46 PM
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 08:30:05 PM
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 19, 2015, 08:28:10 PM
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 08:19:49 PM
Given how close the numbers for the mayor and sheriff line up, however,.....
Its not the usual thing.
I think that Lenny got elected partially because of Mike Williams popularity.
Lenny won because Brown was a weak leader for to much of his tenure. He was not a strong incumbent and the result is that he lost to a guy who basically didn't say too much for most of his campaign but just the fact that he offered a change was enough for many. I have repeatedly stated I was conflicted about this race. As it stands now it is my sincere hope that Curry moves from the far right and embraces Jacksonville as a varied whole where everyone's civil rights matter along with their safety and lifestyle. Fingers crossed in a big way.
hes not that breed of guy Diane. I wish he was, but he isn't.
Hes a vindictive petty spirited person, and we've got four years of this guy.
There is a lot that won't get done now, and you can kiss the cultural spending good bye.
We shall see soon enough. I am thinking Curry will recognize that the cultural assets of this city have been a driver behind so many of the good things currently happening. I bet Khan is thinking he has to start from square one with a new mayor whose main supporter in the person of Rummell is not one of his favorite people.
And what about Sleiman? :)
QuoteI think that Lenny got elected partially because of Mike Williams popularity.
You have 4 new years to figure out what went wrong.....
Bill Bishop's support base.....where did they go?
Quote from: Tacachale on May 19, 2015, 08:34:24 PM
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 08:30:05 PM
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 19, 2015, 08:28:10 PM
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 08:19:49 PM
Given how close the numbers for the mayor and sheriff line up, however,.....
Its not the usual thing.
I think that Lenny got elected partially because of Mike Williams popularity.
Lenny won because Brown was a weak leader for to much of his tenure. He was not a strong incumbent and the result is that he lost to a guy who basically didn't say too much for most of his campaign but just the fact that he offered a change was enough for many. I have repeatedly stated I was conflicted about this race. As it stands now it is my sincere hope that Curry moves from the far right and embraces Jacksonville as a varied whole where everyone's civil rights matter along with their safety and lifestyle. Fingers crossed in a big way.
hes not that breed of guy Diane. I wish he was, but he isn't.
Hes a vindictive petty spirited person, and we've got four years of this guy.
There is a lot that won't get done now, and you can kiss the cultural spending good bye.
Well, I hope you'll be pleasantly surprised.
I will remain open to see what he does. I did not support Brown the first go round and refrained from saying anything about his tenure until he had been in office for over two and a half years. By then it was clear to me that he was the guy I expected him to be. I fear the same from Curry but will wait and see how he governs. Their ideas and platforms were similar in many ways from no tax to no real commitment on the HRO. Lets see how it goes. I am happy with several of the council races and comfortable with the fact that we will have a good counter balance of minds to the new mayor.
Happy to see Brosche, Hazouri and Williams win, sad about Lisa King. She would have done great.
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 08:08:10 PM
Quote from: Kay on May 19, 2015, 08:07:26 PM
And won't Joe be disappointed when Kim Scott is still there.
With Denise Lee as the director of Housing.
But at least the lgbt community helped get rid of the homophobe.
I would have been far more disappointed if Brown had won! Besides, we don't know for sure who or what will happen. I only heard this stuff from Stephen and hey, look how right he has been this election.....This at least means there is still some hope for change in the coming four years.
Quote from: TheCat on May 19, 2015, 08:35:04 PM
Well, if he remains under Delaney's tutelage...we may do okay.
He has a lot of good advisors, he just needs to listen to him. The same was true of Brown.
Mayor's race I am just kind of eh.....sadly.
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 19, 2015, 08:36:46 PM
I am over the moon that Jacksonville showed Kimberly Daniels the door. That is the highlight of this race for me.
I think Daniels was voted out for one reason, the "D" next to her name not because we were being sensical.
With Brown out and Curry in, I suppose there are two choices:
A. Pout and pounce at every 'I told you so' moment.
or
B. Follow Curry's own advice and hold him accountable for every decision he makes as mayor.
I'll be firmly in the 'B' column while not missing a chance to jump to the 'A'! ;D
My guess is that we will see a recount in the Brown/Lockett Felder race as well the numbers are very close. For those who don't really know local politics, we may have dodged a bullet with Lockett/Felder.
One of the most important powers the Mayor has is the ability to appoint departmental directors and other key positions. Poor appointments were a big contributor of Brown's downfall imo. Hopefully, Curry can get some proper talent in key city positions.
Quote from: Tacachale on May 19, 2015, 08:41:31 PM
Quote from: TheCat on May 19, 2015, 08:35:04 PM
Well, if he remains under Delaney's tutelage...we may do okay.
He has a lot of good advisors, he just needs to listen to him. The same was true of Brown.
Who are Curry's advisors?
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 08:41:09 PM
think back to the peyton years, diane. Every year there was a decrease in public funding.
The first increases in cultural funding came under Brown.
Indeed but the cultural establishment has grown in voice and presence. Let's hope he sees that.
Brown, congratulates Curry, thanks his wife and kids. Thanks his pastor. Thanks supporters those who supported him from beginning to end. Says nothing about recent converts.
QuoteWith Brown out and Curry in, I suppose there are two choices:
A. Pout and pounce at every 'I told you so' moment.
or
B. Follow Curry's own advice and hold him accountable for every decision he makes as mayor.
I'll be firmly in the 'B' column while not missing a chance to jump to the 'A'!
Redemption for 4 years of what-ifs. With Hogan as the Supervisor of Elections, this is one happy Democrat!
Brown thanks campaign team, thanks his group at city hall saying they put Jacksonville first and repeats his campaign bullets.
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 19, 2015, 08:33:46 PM
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 08:30:05 PM
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 19, 2015, 08:28:10 PM
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 08:19:49 PM
Given how close the numbers for the mayor and sheriff line up, however,.....
Its not the usual thing.
I think that Lenny got elected partially because of Mike Williams popularity.
Lenny won because Brown was a weak leader for to much of his tenure. He was not a strong incumbent and the result is that he lost to a guy who basically didn't say too much for most of his campaign but just the fact that he offered a change was enough for many. I have repeatedly stated I was conflicted about this race. As it stands now it is my sincere hope that Curry moves from the far right and embraces Jacksonville as a varied whole where everyone's civil rights matter along with their safety and lifestyle. Fingers crossed in a big way.
hes not that breed of guy Diane. I wish he was, but he isn't.
Hes a vindictive petty spirited person, and we've got four years of this guy.
There is a lot that won't get done now, and you can kiss the cultural spending good bye.
We shall see soon enough. I am thinking Curry will recognize that the cultural assets of this city have been a driver behind so many of the good things currently happening. I bet Khan is thinking he has to start from square one with a new mayor whose main supporter in the person of Rummell is not one of his favorite people.
What many don't realize, Rummell and Khan are NOT enemies. In fact they both threw money at Kim Daniels for her City Council race. They are not against each other, only they both need City Council for votes on planning, improvements, and developing land. Brown 7 Curry are much more apart than these two. Politics make strange bed fellows.
Quoterepeats his campaign bullets.
YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN
Brown is definitely in shock and down beat. Telling the people of Jacksonville he will be there from him. Says he is blessed to live in a city that believes in opportunity for all and now thanks Jesus Christ.
I wanted Brown to stay in office because more people would be watch dogs. Now that Curry is in, we'll check out for four years to see how he performs.
I'm disheartened with how Curry won. This victory validates a lot of unpleasant campaign tactics.
Our political environment is now more vitriolic as a result.
Curry's campaign was simply disrespectful to our city.
Now Brown has turned into a preacher. Praise Jesus etc. He is now finished with his statement. He has conceded defeat.
Quote from: TheCat on May 19, 2015, 08:48:49 PM
I wanted Brown to stay in office because more people would be watch dogs. Now that Curry is in, we'll check out for four years to see how he performs.
I'm disheartened with how Curry won. This victory validates a lot of unpleasant campaign tactics.
Our political environment is now more vitriolic as a result.
Curry's campaign was simply disrespectful to our city.
Not me. I will be watching from day one. lol As I said, I will give him a chance.
NRW I am going to be in column A tonight perhaps tomorrow then try to move to B.
Hats off to Curry the lies about firing cops and borrowing money for the pension worked. I asked 10 people at work today they all believed them and didn't even realize there was any doubt. I guess the shift from gate parkway to downtown is over. Likely the city spending to get sports is over as well.
Thumbs down to Brown thought he could spend no money and the GOP would reward him. Thats just what you say for the GOP in actuality you have to give lots of money to their fat cats to keep their support. He in the end was as weak as his critics say.
Lets all hope we can limit the damage Curry will likely do. Will best serve by staying out of the way of the Council.
Quote from: TheCat on May 19, 2015, 08:48:49 PM
I wanted Brown to stay in office because more people would be watch dogs. Now that Curry is in, we'll check out for four years to see how he performs.
I'm disheartened with how Curry won. This victory validates a lot of unpleasant campaign tactics.
Our political environment is now more vitriolic as a result.
Curry's campaign was simply disrespectful to our city.
Perception > Truth
QuoteI'm disheartened with how Curry won. This victory validates a lot of unpleasant campaign tactics.
Our political environment is now more vitriolic as a result.
Curry's campaign was simply disrespectful to our city.
Sour grapes? There is plenty of crow to go around for all to enjoy. Nice to see the underdog win, especially with so many vehemently opposed to him on MJ.
Will Curry stumble, heck yeah he will, but its how he responds to mistakes that will determine whether or not Benedict Arnold Bill Bishop has a chance in 4 years, or if he becomes the next water taxi pilot.
In Curry camp, first speaker is Robin Lumb REC chairman. The speaker says there is not way to say how much Lumb did behind the scenes for the Lenny campaign. Hmmmm. Curry has still not come down to speak.
Meanwhile Jefferson has been defeated in the Sheriffs race but has not declared defeat.
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 08:47:42 PM
One interesting outcome of this election.
With Delaney, the entire republican establishment and Rummel backing him, Curry eked out a 5k vote win.
Thats a water change from the past, so we have that to be thankful for.
Next election the demographics are going to be even more favorable to non establishment candidates.
I appreciate the optimism but i am cynical.
I think the next cycle will see things go back to norm.
This was the election that would have been empowering...now apathy takes over.
Plus, we launched the political industry in Jacksonville. I think it is likely to get more ugly from here.
Quote from: JeffreyS on May 19, 2015, 08:50:17 PM
NRW I am going to be in column A tonight perhaps tomorrow then try to move to B.
What the hell... Why don't you and Field enjoy the week. ;D
Quote from: CityLife on May 19, 2015, 08:43:19 PM
One of the most important powers the Mayor has is the ability to appoint departmental directors and other key positions. Poor appointments were a big contributor of Brown's downfall imo. Hopefully, Curry can get some proper talent in key city positions.
We desperately need really competent people.
Quote from: mtraininjax on May 19, 2015, 08:52:37 PM
QuoteI'm disheartened with how Curry won. This victory validates a lot of unpleasant campaign tactics.
Our political environment is now more vitriolic as a result.
Curry's campaign was simply disrespectful to our city.
Sour grapes? There is plenty of crow to go around for all to enjoy. Nice to see the underdog win, especially with so many vehemently opposed to him on MJ.
Will Curry stumble, heck yeah he will, but its how he responds to mistakes that will determine whether or not Benedict Arnold Bill Bishop has a chance in 4 years, or if he becomes the next water taxi pilot.
Preparing us early for a Curry failure mtrain? =)
Quote from: mtraininjax on May 19, 2015, 08:52:37 PM
QuoteI'm disheartened with how Curry won. This victory validates a lot of unpleasant campaign tactics.
Our political environment is now more vitriolic as a result.
Curry's campaign was simply disrespectful to our city.
Sour grapes? There is plenty of crow to go around for all to enjoy. Nice to see the underdog win, especially with so many vehemently opposed to him on MJ..
No doubt some sour grapes but you have to admit he told two whopping lies and got lots of traction from them. Final analysis however if Brown had been a better Mayor people would not have so readily believed the obvious crapola.
QuoteThe rest of us aren't as motivated that way as you are.
I told you this morning that Sleiman was bad luck......listen more often!
Well Curry was always talking about transparency in the debates, with both referendums passing he will get his wish. With Curry in, the future state of the Shipyards development and the overall future state of DT development will be interesting to say the least. Hopefully the Shipyards will not become 'The Redtape Yards'.
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 19, 2015, 08:49:57 PM
Quote from: TheCat on May 19, 2015, 08:48:49 PM
I wanted Brown to stay in office because more people would be watch dogs. Now that Curry is in, we'll check out for four years to see how he performs.
I'm disheartened with how Curry won. This victory validates a lot of unpleasant campaign tactics.
Our political environment is now more vitriolic as a result.
Curry's campaign was simply disrespectful to our city.
Not me. I will be watching from day one. lol As I said, I will give him a chance.
I'll join you. I just need a week. :D
Quote from: stephendare on May 19, 2015, 08:58:04 PM
Well this has been our best coverage of elections to date!
What a great thing, and thank everyone for making this so incredibly relevant!
The mood here is pretty depressed, and Im heading over to Mike Williams' victory party to celebrate there!
See you all in a few hours.
On this, we most certainly agree. Good work, everyone.
Quote from: Non-RedNeck Westsider on May 19, 2015, 08:54:07 PM
Quote from: JeffreyS on May 19, 2015, 08:50:17 PM
NRW I am going to be in column A tonight perhaps tomorrow then try to move to B.
What the hell... Why don't you and Field enjoy the week. ;D
Mike is a great guy and deserves to celebrate his candidate. I think he is going to be the most disappointed because no one cares more about Jax than Mike does. Hopefully I am wrong about Curry but right now i can only judge by the despicable way he handled his campaign.
QuoteHopefully I am wrong about Curry but right now i can only judge by the despicable way he handled his campaign.
With more Democrats voting that Republicans.....more Democrats voted for the OTHER guy. Forget ads and campaign rhetoric.....numbers did not lie. More people voted Alvin Brown out of office out of the Democratic party.
Mike is a great guy, and I came so close to voting for him, it was tough.
Now I hope he proves to us he's not Rutherford. He needs to step up and not make excuses like Rutherford is notorious for.
Quote from: TheCat on May 19, 2015, 08:59:35 PM
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 19, 2015, 08:49:57 PM
Quote from: TheCat on May 19, 2015, 08:48:49 PM
I wanted Brown to stay in office because more people would be watch dogs. Now that Curry is in, we'll check out for four years to see how he performs.
I'm disheartened with how Curry won. This victory validates a lot of unpleasant campaign tactics.
Our political environment is now more vitriolic as a result.
Curry's campaign was simply disrespectful to our city.
Not me. I will be watching from day one. lol As I said, I will give him a chance.
I'll join you. I just need a week. :D
You got it. :)
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 19, 2015, 08:49:15 PM
Now Brown has turned into a preacher. Praise Jesus etc. He is now finished with his statement. He has conceded defeat.
He does that very well. At JU graduation, Brown encouraged us to shout and clap for Jesus.
QuoteNow I hope he proves to us he's not Rutherford. He needs to step up and not make excuses like Rutherford is notorious for.
I only Hope Curry does not give away landing rights at Everbank Field to Shad Khan, I mean, we gave him Jumbo-Trons when we could not get the potholes fixed. Maybe the citizens hired someone who can actually negotiate with Khan, rather than give it all away.
Uh oh, Jefferson is taking the sour grapes route in his concession remarks. Ugh. Don't do this Ken.
I think the most important question that we should ask ourselves right now is: what do these election results mean for a future downtown aquarium?
Quote from: Todd_Parker on May 19, 2015, 09:07:33 PM
I think the most important question that we should ask ourselves right now is: what do these election results mean for a future downtown aquarium?
Exactly, I mean does anything else matter? lol :)
Put me in the camp of not surprised Brown lost, but surprised the final vote tally wasn't closer.
Quote from: mtraininjax on May 19, 2015, 09:05:54 PM
QuoteNow I hope he proves to us he's not Rutherford. He needs to step up and not make excuses like Rutherford is notorious for.
I only Hope Curry does not give away landing rights at Everbank Field to Shad Khan, I mean, we gave him Jumbo-Trons when we could not get the potholes fixed. Maybe the citizens hired someone who can actually negotiate with Khan, rather than give it all away.
I agree actually. One thing that Curry said that caught my attention during one of the debates was basically a statement that he would look at all proposals for the city and make sure they were as good for the city as the developer. I want to make sure he sticks to that. :)
I hear you Diane, but I got some Williams robo calls that were really nasty about Jefferson.
Did Ken Jefferson even respond to questions posed by MJ? I know Mike had a great Q&A session.
Sleiman is certainly not happy with Brown loosing but he is likely already planning all the ways he can sell his vision to Curry.
Will this be one of our more diverse city councils? 4 women? Racially more diverse? It seems like our new council will also have some strong thinkers joining Boyer, Crescimbeni, etc. I do think this cycle drew out more qualified candidates for council. I'm hopeful they can keep Curry in check.
Quote from: mtraininjax on May 19, 2015, 09:12:49 PM
Did Ken Jefferson even respond to questions posed by MJ? I know Mike had a great Q&A session.
Nope. He deferred to his website on at least one other request.
QuoteSleiman is certainly not happy with Brown loosing but he is likely already planning all the ways he can sell his vision to Curry.
Of course he is, that's what business people do, they hit a bump in the road, but keep on driving. Sleiman was bad for Hogan and then was bad for Brown. Mayoral pollsters will remember this good luck charm in the future...
Curry's winning speech. Soak it in with me he tells the crowd. Said the mayor called him and was courteous. Curry says he told Brown he would commit as one mayor for one city. (Lenny, I will hold you to this statement). Thanking his wife, kids and parents. Thanking his business partner. I was the underdog. To the crowd, ." All of you stepped up to do what is right for Jacksonville". Republican party stepped up an made a statement. The RNC stepped up. Robin Lumb thanks (you are losing me Lenny). Now says it's about one people, one future. City will be safe again. Everyone deserves economic opportunity etc. Thanks etc. One Jax one people, hold be accountable. We will Lenny. Now walk that talk. :)
Quote from: hiddentrack on May 19, 2015, 09:09:06 PM
Put me in the camp of not surprised Brown lost, but surprised the final vote tally wasn't closer.
I'm surprised it was as close as it was. It is much easier to vote against someone than for someone. Curry had that, and being the Republican in a GOP city in his favor.
Loved everyone's input tonight.
Quote from: mtraininjax on May 19, 2015, 09:03:07 PM
QuoteHopefully I am wrong about Curry but right now i can only judge by the despicable way he handled his campaign.
With more Democrats voting that Republicans.....more Democrats voted for the OTHER guy. Forget ads and campaign rhetoric.....numbers did not lie. More people voted Alvin Brown out of office out of the Democratic party.
A lot of voters that are registered as Democrats don't actually vote that way for the most part. The panhandle is an example of this. It is a legacy thing from the days of conservative Dixiecrats. For many decades any part of FL that had an even split of R/D voters was considered a GOP district, if not a GOP lock.
Quote from: vicupstate on May 19, 2015, 09:22:31 PM
Curry had that, and being the Republican in a GOP city in his favor.
More Democrats voted than Republicans. I'm not sure how that makes Jax 'a GOP city'.
Had a conversation with a long established Jacksonville figure today, who surmised that "back then we were all Democrats!"
Quote from: mtraininjax on May 19, 2015, 09:03:07 PM
QuoteHopefully I am wrong about Curry but right now i can only judge by the despicable way he handled his campaign.
With more Democrats voting that Republicans.....more Democrats voted for the OTHER guy. Forget ads and campaign rhetoric.....numbers did not lie. More people voted Alvin Brown out of office out of the Democratic party.
Agree that this was about Brown that is why Curry's flawed campaign was overlooked.
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 19, 2015, 09:22:22 PM
Curry's winning speech. Soak it in with me he tells the crowd. Said the mayor called him and was courteous. Curry says he told Brown he would commit as one mayor for one city. (Lenny, I will hold you to this statement). Thanking his wife, kids and parents. Thanking his business partner. I was the underdog. To the crowd, ." All of you stepped up to do what is right for Jacksonville". Republican party stepped up an made a statement. The RNC stepped up. Robin Lumb thanks (you are losing me Lenny). Now says it's about one people, one future. City will be safe again. Everyone deserves economic opportunity etc. Thanks etc. One Jax one people, hold be accountable. We will Lenny. Now walk that talk. :)
How will he make the city safe again? That is what I want to know. He sure can't hire more cops. No money. No higher taxes. Will he crap them? He will fail I'm afraid and not bring any meaningful "change" to Jax. He has proven that negative campaigning is the only way to win in Florida. Oh well at least 4 more years of the same old tired politics. If he does anything useful in the future you all may call me out on this one.
Quote from: mtraininjax on May 19, 2015, 09:01:09 PM
Will it take Curry that long, doubtful, ... he understands Jacksonville.
Hence his logo of our most iconic bridge :-\
(https://courtsandsports.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/lenny-curry-logo.jpg)
He will hire more Cops it is code for expect more revenue generated by cops particularly in poor neighborhoods. It won't actually reduce crime. He does say he supports Jacksonville Journey which is a good step hope he will still see it that way now that the campaign is over.
well, I guess this forum has to look forward to 4 years of talking about growth and development in Orlando, Tampa, and Miami. I don't foresee anything of significance happening in Jax for the time being.
Quote from: Todd_Parker on May 19, 2015, 09:46:34 PM
well, I guess this forum has to look forward to 4 years of talking about growth and development in Orlando, Tampa, and Miami. I don't foresee anything of significance happening in Jax for the time being.
There are some fat cats here who want progress and the nice thing is that Curry will jump when the fat cats snap.
Well, I think there are a significant amount of Reagan Democrats remaining on the rolls in Duval County. The identity politics of the national Democrat Party just doesn't fly with them, period.
And could we give it a rest on the claims of despicable negative campaigning? Both sides, I'm sure, did their fair share of hitting below the belt. Rarely do Democrats in an urban environment pass up the opportunity to do so, so . . . enough of that.
And Cheshire Cat, after that week to recover from this loss it would be good if you started off by acknowledging that Lenny is not of the "far right" -- that's a laughably absurd assertion. The man is an establishment Republican, period, and those folks certainly aren't from the far right.
Cheer up, Democrats. A diverse city council in a multiplicity of ways should be a good thing for the city. A Republican mayor should be a good thing for the city. Shad Khan and Rummel both trying to move Downtown forward should be a good thing for the city.
No need to be pessimistic, people. Big Duval is looking good.
Quote from: I-10east on May 19, 2015, 09:33:41 PM
Quote from: vicupstate on May 19, 2015, 09:22:31 PM
Curry had that, and being the Republican in a GOP city in his favor.
More Democrats voted than Republicans. I'm not sure how that makes Jax 'a GOP city'.
It's a city where registered Democrats vote for Republicans seemingly.
Quote from: Todd_Parker on May 19, 2015, 09:46:34 PM
well, I guess this forum has to look forward to 4 years of talking about growth and development in Orlando, Tampa, and Miami. I don't foresee anything of significance happening in Jax for the time being.
Well to be fair, that is all the people on the forum have mostly talked about for years anyways.
Curry's campaign reportedly outspent Brown's campaign 4-1.
Quote from: avonjax on May 19, 2015, 09:40:41 PM
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on May 19, 2015, 09:22:22 PM
Curry's winning speech. Soak it in with me he tells the crowd. Said the mayor called him and was courteous. Curry says he told Brown he would commit as one mayor for one city. (Lenny, I will hold you to this statement). Thanking his wife, kids and parents. Thanking his business partner. I was the underdog. To the crowd, ." All of you stepped up to do what is right for Jacksonville". Republican party stepped up an made a statement. The RNC stepped up. Robin Lumb thanks (you are losing me Lenny). Now says it's about one people, one future. City will be safe again. Everyone deserves economic opportunity etc. Thanks etc. One Jax one people, hold be accountable. We will Lenny. Now walk that talk. :)
How will he make the city safe again? That is what I want to know. He sure can't hire more cops. No money. No higher taxes. Will he crap them? He will fail I'm afraid and not bring any meaningful "change" to Jax. He has proven that negative campaigning is the only way to win in Florida. Oh well at least 4 more years of the same old tired politics. If he does anything useful in the future you all may call me out on this one.
I won't be calling anyone out. I did not vote for Curry this election because of his negative campaign and his ultra right GOP stance. I will now simply give the man a chance and see if he does take the "one city one people approach" and how he manages to handle the need for officers and other important services with the current budge constraints. He said tonight "Hold me responsible" and I will. But I will always give a person the chance to prove themselves. I don't wish him failure, I can tell you that because to do so would be wishing harm to our city and I won't do that. So lets see what he does. Both he and Brown were virtually the same on many issues. Lets see what he does now in the real world with the election over.
Wow...23 pages! I just read through the last 10. Good contributions from all.
Quote from: Todd_Parker on May 19, 2015, 09:46:34 PM
well, I guess this forum has to look forward to 4 years of talking about growth and development in Orlando, Tampa, and Miami. I don't foresee anything of significance happening in Jax for the time being.
Honestly, Jax will be Jax. The economy is improving and no matter who was elected, things will proceed in a similar fashion. This is one of the reasons I never really got too caught up in the back and forth between candidates. Here, we'll still talk development and the cities south of us will continue to outpace us. No offense to us locally. They are signficantly larger metro areas and already have established markets for the type of development many on the forum would like to see more of in Jax.
I don't see the good things happening in Jax screeching to a halt. Clearly Lenny wants to be seen as a positive influence on this city. Derailing or dismissing current efforts downtown and elsewhere would not help him at all politically or otherwise. Much of the excitement and growth has been organic and born of the people anyway. Its has always been about what we the people do first. Now we must work to make sure those elected represent us accordingly.
I wish him - and thus the city - the best.
I do want to see how he is going to pay for hiring 124 (or whatever the number is) cops without raising taxes. What services will he seek to cut?
The Jacksonville election results are now trending on Facebook.
(http://i.imgur.com/uuDrxQA.jpg)
I have saved "Sportsmen For Curry" bumper stickers for posterity. ("Sportsmen for ______" always weird. Four years ago the Alvin Brown effort equally laughable,only with more punch)
Some figured the 2015 Curry Sportsmen Cause was about hunting certain Duval lands (too bad the Conservatives let the proposed 1800 acre Trust For Public Lands Brannon Chaffee Mitigation Park dwindle way back when....), the award status of the 2015 Curry bumper sticker driven by Port Dredge maneuvers ,first time in decades a conservative politician addressing a "Hook & Bullet" constituency has joined with "Enviros" (and an army of fellow Sportsmen & Sportswomen.....) in supporting the restoration of the Ocklawaha River AKA 'destroying the dam'
Will present a Curry bumper sticker to Florida Defenders Of The Environment soon.
Cheers!
Eurovision started already?
Quote from: mtraininjax on May 19, 2015, 10:28:11 PM
QuoteHence his logo of our most iconic bridge
Break out the crow for the "I'm with Alvin" crowd, lol. Attacking his campaign signs..... :o
To be fair, we were mocking those campaign signs months ago. I have no hard feelings. I hope he is the best mayor this city has ever had :)
Quote from: Apache on May 19, 2015, 11:09:42 PM
Newby V. Pittman...thoughts?
A race that hasn't received much attention. I voted Pittman. Newby seemed like a derp to me. I couldn't find enough info to compare him to Kim Daniels but this is another race I wish there was a better candidate. Reminds me of Daniels v Taylor last election.
I also voted for Pittman. TBH it was my most nonchalant vote in this race. I looked at the TU videos because I didn't know about the candidates; Newby was prepared on the vid (looking at the camera) but he harped on religion much of the video (ala the Demonbuster) which turned me off. Pittman seemed to be less prepared (looking down at her notes throughout) but I liked the message that she brought forth.
Quote from: I-10east on May 19, 2015, 09:33:41 PM
Quote from: vicupstate on May 19, 2015, 09:22:31 PM
Curry had that, and being the Republican in a GOP city in his favor.
More Democrats voted than Republicans. I'm not sure how that makes Jax 'a GOP city'.
Look at who wins elections. It isn't Democrats. Many people registered under one party years or decades ago, and never bother to change it. That is probably even more the case in JAX because municipal elections do not have party primaries. From 1980 to today the dominant party in the South has completely flipped from heavy majority D to heavy majority R.
In some states, most I would say, party registration means something. In FL it is MUCH less so.
Quote from: Apache on May 19, 2015, 11:09:42 PM
Newby V. Pittman...thoughts?
A race that hasn't received much attention. I voted Pittman. Newby seemed like a derp to me. I couldn't find enough info to compare him to Kim Daniels but this is another race I wish there was a better candidate. Reminds me of Daniels v Taylor last election.
In every citywide race, the D got 48-49% and the Republican 51-52. The only exceptions were when the candidate of either party was pretty extreme (Kim Daniels for the D's, Youngblood for the R's). The Pittman/Newby race seemed to be a 'generic D' vs. 'generic R'. Thus the result.
The good news for Democrats is that while a minority, it isn't as far in the minority as it was a few years ago.
QuoteWell, I think there are a significant amount of Reagan Democrats remaining on the rolls in Duval County. The identity politics of the national Democrat Party just doesn't fly with them, period.
I agree.
QuoteAnd could we give it a rest on the claims of despicable negative campaigning? Both sides, I'm sure, did their fair share of hitting below the belt. Rarely do Democrats in an urban environment pass up the opportunity to do so, so . . . enough of that.
Can you give some examples? Given Curry had no public record to run on, that would not have been an easy thing to do.
Quotehis ultra right GOP stance.
Every candidate circles the wagons for their supporters. Do you think the business people who backed Curry were all centrists? No he catered to his base, his right wing GOP'ers. Now that he has won the election, everyone moves more to the center. He will, history shows they all do.
The problem with Brown was that he was still in campaign mode 2 years after he won the election and never figured out how to work with others, instead alienated them.
Nice to see Curry making the rounds on local TV, on WJXT, they asked him why Brown lost, as an incumbent, Curry's perfect answer "Leadership" and that was absolutely correct. It wasn't the fact that he did not raise taxes, it was not the fact that he gave back part of his salary, it wasn't his photo-ops for every event, it was his lack of leadership.
QuoteIt wasn't the fact that he did not raise taxes, it was not the fact that he gave back part of his salary, it wasn't his photo-ops for every event, it was his lack of leadership.
I agree, but if not providing leadership meant a sure defeat, then Peyton would have been defeated for re-election too. The only real question I have is would Brown have been better off being less 'Tea Party lite' and more of a SLIGHTLY more partisan Democrat. While he may have gotten some GOP votes with his no tax pledge,etc., I think he took the wind out of the sails of his Democratic base in doing so. He probably lost as many votes as he gained, maybe more. Had he taken a stronger stand for HRO either during this campaign or in 2012, would he have won? If he had accepted a modest tax increase (which happened anyway and which his opponent blamed him for) in order to fund some popular programs, would he have been better off?
Can someone paste a link on here where Lenny Curry lays out his vision for Jacksonville? Cause I have no clue what his Mayoral term will be like.
By that, I mean in his own words.
I looked back and see that he has never served the public before, only the Republican Party, and that is what I am expecting.
http://www.lennycurryformayor.com/lennysplan/
Quote from: MusicMan on May 20, 2015, 08:53:18 AM
Can someone paste a link on here where Lenny Curry lays out his vision for Jacksonville? Cause I have no clue what his Mayoral term will be like.
By that, I mean in his own words.
I looked back and see that he has never served the public before, only the Republican Party, and that is what I am expecting.
This was my problem with the campaign he ran. I don't remember a single ad where he laid out what he wanted to do for the city.
Quote from: vicupstate on May 20, 2015, 08:36:32 AM
QuoteIt wasn't the fact that he did not raise taxes, it was not the fact that he gave back part of his salary, it wasn't his photo-ops for every event, it was his lack of leadership.
I agree, but if not providing leadership meant a sure defeat, then Peyton would have been defeated for re-election too. The only real question I have is would Brown have been better off being less 'Tea Party lite' and more of a SLIGHTLY more partisan Democrat. While he may have gotten some GOP votes with his no tax pledge,etc., I think he took the wind out of the sails of his Democratic base in doing so. He probably lost as many votes as he gained, maybe more. Had he taken a stronger stand for HRO either during this campaign or in 2012, would he have won? If he had accepted a modest tax increase (which happened anyway and which his opponent blamed him for) in order to fund some popular programs, would he have been better off?
I'm not sure if he would've won, but I think he would've at least earned stronger support. That stronger support might've energized Brown himself, and I think he could've used it.
The Brown campaign didn't seem to have any fight in it. It was like he just stood up there expecting to win, thinking his record would speak for itself, not realizing that Curry was hammering away at his record so much that it was unrecognizable. If the Brown campaign ever took Curry seriously, it was too late in the game.
I got more crap in the mail from Lenny Curry than I've ever received from a single candidate in all my years of voting. During the entire campaign, I can only remember a single item that supported Brown, but I would get 2 or 3 items from Curry some weeks. I assume that's because Curry's campaign went hard after registered Democrats. If Curry outspent Brown 4:1, like I-10east posted, I'm not surprised at all.
Quote from: vicupstate on May 20, 2015, 08:36:32 AM
QuoteIt wasn't the fact that he did not raise taxes, it was not the fact that he gave back part of his salary, it wasn't his photo-ops for every event, it was his lack of leadership.
I agree, but if not providing leadership meant a sure defeat, then Peyton would have been defeated for re-election too. The only real question I have is would Brown have been better off being less 'Tea Party lite' and more of a SLIGHTLY more partisan Democrat. While he may have gotten some GOP votes with his no tax pledge,etc., I think he took the wind out of the sails of his Democratic base in doing so. He probably lost as many votes as he gained, maybe more. Had he taken a stronger stand for HRO either during this campaign or in 2012, would he have won? If he had accepted a modest tax increase (which happened anyway and which his opponent blamed him for) in order to fund some popular programs, would he have been better off?
Peyton made a lot of missteps in his first term, but not to Brown's level. He also didn't alienate a good chunk of his biggest supporters. And of course at the time, the Democrats struggled to mount a successful challenge.
Beyond that, I think you're right about the right wing stances. They were designed to appeal to voters who never were going to turn over in mass for a Democrat, while also turning off a lot of Democrats and moderates. He still did solid numbers (he actually got a bit more votes than he did last time), but that's not where you want to be as an incumbent. He wasn't running against Mike Hogan this time, and he was no longer the new fresh face.
In 2011, Brown got 97,307 votes (http://www.duvalelections.com/portals/duval/archive/ERSummary.aspx7.htm), beating Hogan's 95,645 (http://www.duvalelections.com/portals/duval/archive/ERSummary.aspx7.htm). This year, Brown got 97,971 (http://enr.electionsfl.org/DUV/Summary/1276) votes, while Curry got 103,256 (http://enr.electionsfl.org/DUV/Summary/1276). This means in the last election, a lot of voters just stayed home, turned off by Hogan, but unconvinced by the newcomer Brown.
Those are the voters Brown really needed to beat a solid Republican challenger. He had four years to convince them, but apparently his performance didn't sway them.
QuoteWhat I find interesting however is that the republican establishment threw everything into this race but the kitchen sink: three billionaires, two ex mayors, one university president, fear mongered their ass off, played high shenanigans to get him selected by the REC and all of that was only worth 5,000 votes.
To quote the great Vince Lombardi (he was a famous American football coach, if you don't know): "Winning isn't everything....It's the Only Thing." It does not matter if Ronald Reagan was propped up from beyond and came down and blessed his spirit to the Curry camp.....Curry won, who cares how much billions in trees were killed, it will all happen again in 4 years, and sooner next year with the Presidential election. While trees, resources, feelings are shattered.......wikipedia will only report who wins.....not how they won.
Quoteif Curry doesn't learn how to work with them over the next four years the same thing will happen to him.
Big difference here is that Curry has been in Jacksonville, business in Jacksonville, knows a lot more people in Jacksonville than Brown did when he waltzed in from DC as the puppet for those same Billionaires. Curry has more ties to the local community, it will help him.
Quoteyawn.
You still tired from your overnight party at Sleiman's? Perhaps a nap is in order.
Quote from: stephendare on May 20, 2015, 09:43:54 AM
All in all, other than Brown's narrow loss and Lisa Kings crushing defeat in oceanway (go figure) Im pretty pleased with the outcome of the election.
Scott Wilson replaces his much less capable former boss, Don Redman
Anna Brosche will be seated
Joyce Morgan will be amazing
The Council will have actual leaders on it with Hazouri and Boyer
Kim Daniels is gone,
Manboy Clay Yarborough is gone
Lumb is gone
We dodged two bullets in not electing either Anania or Youngblood
the crazies who did make it to the runoff were crushingly defeated
We got a hell of a good guy in the Sheriff's office
Mike Hogan will move into the Supervisor of Elections position
and we retained Jerry Holland, who has been a superb public servant.
All in all, I think as a city, we did pretty damn good.
You also throw in Aaron Bowman, former CO of Mayport and Senior VP at Jax Chamber and its a much stronger council.
Quoteno, just bored with your boorish behavior. After four years of your incredibly weird sour grapes posting about Brown's win, you apparently want everyone to be as graceless as you were, but I don't think thats going to happen. Its mostly grownups here (no offense, red baron) and this isn't a sports match, its the city we all live in.
Blah, Blah, Blah, I would expect no less from you. But hey, I have good news for you. There are people who were turned off by the left-wing ideology who are thinking of returning and posting and injecting their right-wing philosophies for you. So you are going to get an increase in people on the thread....isn't that great news?
Win with class and lose with class, no I wasn't happy that Hogan lost 4 years ago, but I stayed, trudged through the mud and dirth of Brown's administration, just as I did with Peyton and Delaney. They too are people, they make mistakes, but at the end of the term, whether you are re-elected or you make the grade in a James Crooks book chapter depends on your mistakes and how you learned from them.
We are all in this together, every 4 years, so I am hoping Curry learns from mistakes, as he will make his fair share of them and move on. Mistake #1 to learn from, do not have Toney Sleiman on your campaign materials.
^Bowman has had one of the most distinguished careers of any recent Council member in my opinion. Naval Academy Grad, holds an MBA, Commanding Officer of Mayport (which is a very important job locally), has served on the Florida Inland Navigation District Commission, and has been Sr. VP of Business Development for Jax Chamber for 3 years. I don't know his exact political ideology, but have heard a lot of good things about him. Plus, its always good to have a Council full of varied professional backgrounds and experiences. I imagine he will be a big asset to the Council on economic development, military, and port related issues.
Quote from: vicupstate on May 20, 2015, 06:07:31 AM
QuoteAnd could we give it a rest on the claims of despicable negative campaigning? Both sides, I'm sure, did their fair share of hitting below the belt. Rarely do Democrats in an urban environment pass up the opportunity to do so, so . . . enough of that.
Can you give some examples? Given Curry had no public record to run on, that would not have been an easy thing to do.
Have you been reading this website?
Additionally, there was the whole thing about Curry "turning back the clock" on race relations. Brown and his operatives also had an unfortunate tendency to attack individuals who were supporting Curry, which just didn't pan out. He had a solid share of negativity, but he wasn't nearly as good at it.
Quote from: stephendare on May 20, 2015, 09:34:54 AM
true taca. If he had been nice to a single gay person in public, it probably would have gone differently.
What I find interesting however is that the republican establishment threw everything into this race but the kitchen sink: three billionaires, two ex mayors, one university president, fear mongered their ass off, played high shenanigans to get him selected by the REC and all of that was only worth 5,000 votes.
All of the right wing extremist candidates lost, and a couple of progressive dems got elected-----which considering the down ticket nature of and real partisanship shouldn't have happened especially having outspent Brown 4 to 1.
Its a different city, and it belongs to all of us moderates.
Factoring in changing demographics, if Curry doesn't learn how to work with them over the next four years the same thing will happen to him.
I wouldn't put it like that, but I agree that Curry is going to have to reach across the aisle and govern holistically if he hopes to win again. But he'll also have to govern effectively. Brown was very good at being bipartisan, and it didn't help him win. The issue is how he went about it all. He managed to turn off a lot of people, including several of his major supporters, who would have been perfectly happy supporting him again. I speak from experience on that point.
Quote from: RattlerGator on May 19, 2015, 09:51:55 PM
Well, I think there are a significant amount of Reagan Democrats remaining on the rolls in Duval County. The identity politics of the national Democrat Party just doesn't fly with them, period.
And could we give it a rest on the claims of despicable negative campaigning? Both sides, I'm sure, did their fair share of hitting below the belt. Rarely do Democrats in an urban environment pass up the opportunity to do so, so . . . enough of that.
And Cheshire Cat, after that week to recover from this loss it would be good if you started off by acknowledging that Lenny is not of the "far right" -- that's a laughably absurd assertion. The man is an establishment Republican, period, and those folks certainly aren't from the far right.
Cheer up, Democrats. A diverse city council in a multiplicity of ways should be a good thing for the city. A Republican mayor should be a good thing for the city. Shad Khan and Rummel both trying to move Downtown forward should be a good thing for the city.
No need to be pessimistic, people. Big Duval is looking good.
I did not make the week to recover comment. As far as Lenny not being far right, as I have stated I will give him a chance to show us that he is going to lead for all members of our society be they GOP or not. I wish him well because I wish the city well.
According to the Curry campaign, young children chasing chickens in their backyards is a cornerstone of a "safe again" Jacksonville. When do we get our chickens?
Quote from: Tacachale on May 20, 2015, 12:58:03 PM
Quote from: stephendare on May 20, 2015, 09:34:54 AM
true taca. If he had been nice to a single gay person in public, it probably would have gone differently.
What I find interesting however is that the republican establishment threw everything into this race but the kitchen sink: three billionaires, two ex mayors, one university president, fear mongered their ass off, played high shenanigans to get him selected by the REC and all of that was only worth 5,000 votes.
All of the right wing extremist candidates lost, and a couple of progressive dems got elected-----which considering the down ticket nature of and real partisanship shouldn't have happened especially having outspent Brown 4 to 1.
Its a different city, and it belongs to all of us moderates.
Factoring in changing demographics, if Curry doesn't learn how to work with them over the next four years the same thing will happen to him.
I wouldn't put it like that, but I agree that Curry is going to have to reach across the aisle and govern holistically if he hopes to win again. But he'll also have to govern effectively. Brown was very good at being bipartisan, and it didn't help him win. The issue is how he went about it all. He managed to turn off a lot of people, including several of his major supporters, who would have been perfectly happy supporting him again. I speak from experience on that point.
He absolutely must reach across the isle to all parties and all people including the GLBT community. One thing he needs to get through his head right quick is that discrimination is very much alive in Jacksonville be it racial, religious or based upon sexual orientation. His denial of that during the campaign cycle was frightening to me, considering the reality and the years of studies showing discrimination is indeed a serious problem in our city. Tale of two cities is very real.
QuoteAccording to the Curry campaign, young children chasing chickens in their backyards is a cornerstone of a "safe again" Jacksonville. When do we get our chickens?
I have a number of friends in Murray Hill and Avondale who raise chickens in their back yard. I am sure we can get you permit, if you ask. 8)
I find Lenny to be a very smart man. He started his own business and made it incredibly successful with most of the large Fortune 500 companies in this town signing him to be their accounting firm over the established big 4. I think he will actually be good for business in the city and downtown. He will hit some rough patches but I think he will do a lot. He has not had anything handed to him but made his own money and then rose in the GOP impressively.
One way or another, I don't think the main concern for most Jacksonville citizens is the HRO, but it is jobs, fiscal stability, crime, and the creation of a vibrant downtown. Lenny will play ball with Khan and Khan may like him more in the end than Alvin who was just the proven commodity. We just need some real momentum downtown and a mayor who is willing to push to make things happen on that end, not be reactive (not saying Alvin was reactive, because I think he did a lot of good in what he was given but it just was not enough in the end).
Quote from: mtraininjax on May 20, 2015, 01:54:36 PM
QuoteAccording to the Curry campaign, young children chasing chickens in their backyards is a cornerstone of a "safe again" Jacksonville. When do we get our chickens?
I have a number of friends in Murray Hill and Avondale who raise chickens in their back yard. I am sure we can get you permit, if you ask. 8)
[/quote
Public-private partnership!
Brand spanking new wiki page for the new mayor.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lenny_Curry