QuoteA new study by American City Business Journals (ACBJ) has determined that Los Angeles is easily the most attractive location in North America for a new professional sports franchise, specifically a team in the National Football League.
ACBJ analyzed 83 markets in the United States and Canada to determine if they have the financial ability to support new teams in baseball, football, basketball, hockey and soccer. It identified the following as the best options for either an expansion club or a team relocated from another city:
Major League Baseball (MLB): Montreal
National Football League (NFL): Los Angeles/Anaheim
National Basketball League (NBA): Las Vegas
National Hockey League (NHL): Houston
Major League Soccer (MLS): Las Vegas
Full article: http://www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/news/2015/04/09/sportmain.html
For you all and Mayor Brown, who would like to see an NBA team in Jax, this study claims that putting a team in Fort Myers would be a more viable option!
QuoteMARKETS WITH FULL CAPACITY (scores of 100)
Albany, 100
Austin, 100
Birmingham, 100
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, 100
Grand Rapids, 100
Harrisburg, 100
Hartford, 100
Honolulu, 100
Las Vegas, 100
Montreal, 100
Richmond, 100
Rochester, N.Y., 100
Tulsa, 100
Virginia Beach-Norfolk, 100
MARKETS WITH BORDERLINE CAPACITY (scores of 70-99)
Omaha, 98
Sarasota, 98
Seattle, 98
Albuquerque, 96
Dayton, 96
Fresno, 87
Little Rock, 82
Louisville, 78
Greensboro, 76
Quebec City, 76
Chattanooga, 73
El Paso, 73
Hamilton, 71
MARKETS WITH INADEQUATE CAPACITY (scores of 0-69)
Bakersfield, 69
Springfield, Mass., 69
Vancouver, 58
Greenville, 51
Calgary, 42
Jacksonville, 36
Knoxville, 33
Edmonton, 31
Madison, 31
Ottawa, 31
San Diego, 29
Tucson, 27
Columbus, 22
Des Moines, 20
Baton Rouge, 18
Columbia, 18
Syracuse, 11
Baltimore, 0
Buffalo, 0
Cincinnati, 0
Green Bay, 0
Kansas City, 0
Nashville, 0
Pittsburgh, 0
Raleigh-Durham, 0
St. Louis, 0
Tampa-St. Petersburg, 0
Winnipeg, 0
MARKETS WITH TEAMS
Atlanta, has 1 team
Boston, has 1 team
Charlotte, has 1 team
Chicago, has 1 team
Cleveland, has 1 team
Dallas, has 1 team
Denver, has 1 team
Detroit, has 1 team
Houston, has 1 team
Indianapolis, has 1 team
Los Angeles-Anaheim, has 2 teams
Memphis, has 1 team
Miami, has 1 team
Milwaukee, has 1 team
Minneapolis-St. Paul, has 1 team
New Orleans, has 1 team
New York-New Jersey, has 2 teams
Oklahoma City, has 1 team
Orlando, has 1 team
Philadelphia, has 1 team
Phoenix, has 1 team
Portland, has 1 team
Sacramento, has 1 team
Salt Lake City, has 1 team
San Antonio, has 1 team
San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, has 1 team
Toronto, has 1 team
Washington, has 1 team
http://www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/news/2015/04/09/capacity3.html
However, Jax is identified as being a perfect place for a MLS team:
http://www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/news/2015/04/09/capacity5.html
I think we're a big baseball town, but the soccer fan base here has really surprised me. If Montreal gets a team I'm betting it would be the Tampa Rays.
Anyway, Jacksonville is a sports town, no doubt!
Better yet, why don't MLS just relegate the LA Chivas club and have the best USL/NASL team get promoted?
I know it'll never happen, but I would love to have an MLB team in Jax.
Pretty interesting. Their methodology (http://www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/news/2015/04/09/sportmethod.html) is intriguing. They're looking at this only from an economic standpoint, based on total personal income in each community's Combined Statistical Area, minus the economic requirements of the teams they already have. They aren't taking account of other factors like population, demographics, corporate sponsorship opportunities, or local interest in the different sports. Take any of those into account and the lists get much shorter. Jax would still probably stack up pretty well for MLS, though, assuming the Armada continue to perform strongly.
One good factor they do include is the number of Power 5 college teams. Raleigh-Durham looks to be sapped, even though they just have a hockey team, as they have *3* different Power 5 college teams. College is often left out when people talk about markets' suitability for sports teams.
Lakelander,
I have also found Lakeland to more of a Tampa Bay sports market with lots of Bucs/Lightning/Rays fans. Am I right on that?
Also, Manatee-Sarasota is also a Tampa Bay sports market. Bradenton is about 25 minutes from DT St. Pete.
Quote from: Tacachale on April 09, 2015, 09:47:15 PM
Pretty interesting. Their methodology (http://www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/news/2015/04/09/sportmethod.html) is intriguing. They're looking at this only from an economic standpoint, based on total personal income in each community's Combined Statistical Area, minus the economic requirements of the teams they already have. They aren't taking account of other factors like population, demographics, corporate sponsorship opportunities, or local interest in the different sports. Take any of those into account and the lists get much shorter. Jax would still probably stack up pretty well for MLS, though, assuming the Armada continue to perform strongly.
One good factor they do include is the number of Power 5 college teams. Raleigh-Durham looks to be sapped, even though they just have a hockey team, as they have *3* different Power 5 college teams. College is often left out when people talk about markets' suitability for sports teams.
College sports is a huge force. Part of the reason the South in general is dominated by college sports teams and not professional sports teams is that the college teams took root in the south while the pros took root up north, and reversing that would at this point require reversing the psyche of an entire region/culture of people.
Just the sports mentality difference between a Jax and a Boston or SF from my experience is tremendous. Jax seems way more college oriented, but just as much of a sports town as the other two (if not moreso, frankly). Boston and SF are entirely professional sports oriented and hardly anyone at all gives a damn about college sports, even though there are college sports teams that do fairly well in either city/region. For as many professional sports teams Atlanta has, it seems way more a college sports oriented town. The Braves suffice as the entire Southeast's baseball team. I'm absolutely positive the influence college sports has on the south is taken into consideration by professional leagues when they look at expanding.
Soccer is different because there is no college soccer like there's college football, basketball, or baseball.
I'd say the south in general is more college oriented. Jax is really getting behind the jags though, could you imagine if they were good? I think all the bad talk nationally about the jags has helped fans take more pride in them.
And I'd love to see an MLB team here too :) The ospreys have had an amazing baseball team for many years, the Suns are champions regularly, we've got good fans of baseball too!
Quote from: For_F-L-O-R-I-D-A on April 09, 2015, 10:04:37 PM
Lakelander,
I have also found Lakeland to more of a Tampa Bay sports market with lots of Bucs/Lightning/Rays fans. Am I right on that?
Pretty much. Lakeland is closer to Tampa than St. Augustine is to DT Jax. It's literally on the Polk/Hillsborough County line. I believe Lakeland is also in the Bay Area's tv market. Growing up, we'd go to Bucs and Magic games. Never made the drive to St. Pete to catch a Rays game though.
The stats aren't perfect on the college angle. There are non-Power 5 colleges that have nearly the draw of Power 5 schools, and some Power 5 schools that barely move the needle. Looking at those cities, football and/or basketball at the University of Cincinnati, University of Memphis, USF, UCF, Tulane, Fresno State, and UCONN likely soak up a lot of the interest in their metro areas, as does college hockey in a number of places. That would have the effect of making places like Cincinnati, New Orleans and Tampa look even more crowded. And it doesn't touch on Canadian college sports or the CFL, which is still the second most popular sports league in Canada.
At any rate, it's an interesting look at one of the factors as to why sports teams go where they go.
Some of these full capacity cities are very surprising like Albany and Hartford; They aren't exactly experiencing rapid, or even moderate growth. Albany or Hartford with NFL or NBA teams? Lets get real here...I here alot of people on PFT mentioning OKC as a NFL locale, and this study confirmed what I figured, zero chance. Jax has much of a chance getting NBA as OKC does getting a NFL team.
Quote from: coredumped on April 09, 2015, 10:34:04 PM
Jax is really getting behind the jags though, could you imagine if they were good? I think all the bad talk nationally about the jags has helped fans take more pride in them.
I think that was part of it. Also, the "second generation" of Jaguar fans fully supports the team the way many other fan bases do around the NFL. You go to a Jaguar game and it is a very young crowd. I'd guess one of the youngest in the NFL. And they are going to continue to grow up with the team and have kids that follow the team and so on.
Since Khan has bought the team, almost everything around them has improved. Now they just need to win some damn games. When they do, it will be something to see.
^^^It's interesting that in the 2015 State of the Jaguars address, Mark Lamping said that Jax actually has an older overall fanbase. I can imagine that's mostly because Florida is a place where many retire, and that stat isn't necessarily indicative of the crowd that's going to EverBank Field on Sundays.
It would be interesting to see if Florida's other professional teams have older fan bases. My guess is, it would range, depending on if the franchises are known for winning or losing over an extended period of time. For example, the Heat pretty much still sell out all of their games but the Marlins still struggle to fill seats despite having a new ballpark.
They also admitted they only looked at metro area, and not secondary markets or proximity to other markets. Clearly, many sports teams (professional and college) reach well outside their metro area.
Austin is a very interesting city concerning sports expansion. It's still growing at a mind blowing astronomical rate, with no one even in the same stratosphere. However it's also a huge college town with UT there, and I could see some pushback against Austin being a 'major league sportsopolis'. Personally, I'll completely rule out the NFL, NBA, and MLB in Austin (SA which has NBA would get NFL before Austin). My guess it that Austin (or Houston) would get a NHL team; Austin would be Texas's version of the Columbus Blue Jackets. But what do I know, stranger things has happened...
Given its demographics and culture, I think Austin would make for a great market for the MLS.
^^^True.
The issue with Austin is San Antonio already has a soccer stadium. It seats 8-9k right now and is expandable to 20k. If the league expands in Texas, it will be San Antonio.
Keep in mind the list is only looking at economic potential based on total personal income in the cities' combined statistical areas. Once you factor in population and demographics, for instance, the picture changes. So, for instance, they're listing four markets (http://www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/news/2015/04/09/capacity1.html) with "borderline capacity" for MLB based on total personal income, Montreal, Hartford, Las Vegas and Virginia Beach-Norfolk. But the conventional wisdom is the city needs at least 2 million people to support baseball (as you need a big enough pool for people to actually go to and watch the games, among other things). That rules out Hartford and Virginia Beach. And Las Vegas has its own problems, namely legalized gambling. That leaves only Montreal, and Montreal already had a team that moved away. So, it's complicated.
Maybe I'm too American or whatever, but I'm I the only one that hates the "Football Club (FC)" names in soccer? I'm not too wild about the "City" names either (like Orlando City). The Armada's inaugural game, which looks better "EDM vs JAX" or "FCE vs JAX"? Xfinity even got confused with the listing, thinking that Jax played the Fort Lauderdale Strikers (FTL). That's the end of my American whining. :)
Quote from: Tacachale on April 10, 2015, 10:45:45 AM
Keep in mind the list is only looking at economic potential based on total personal income in the cities' combined statistical areas. Once you factor in population and demographics, for instance, the picture changes. So, for instance, they're listing four markets (http://www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/news/2015/04/09/capacity1.html) with "borderline capacity" for MLB based on total personal income, Montreal, Hartford, Las Vegas and Virginia Beach-Norfolk. But the conventional wisdom is the city needs at least 2 million people to support baseball (as you need a big enough pool for people to actually go to and watch the games, among other things). That rules out Hartford and Virginia Beach. And Las Vegas has its own problems, namely legalized gambling. That leaves only Montreal, and Montreal already had a team that moved away. So, it's complicated.
Very good points.
Quote from: JaxJersey-licious on April 09, 2015, 08:26:29 PM
Better yet, why don't MLS just relegate the LA Chivas club and have the best USL/NASL team get promoted?
None of the North American leagues have promotion and relegation. MLS and NASL have no formal relationship, and USL is basically a feeder league for MLS.
Chivas USA was purchased by the league and folded, and that 2nd LA spot was awarded to a new group (for a $100M fee), so the LA2 expansion franchise will start play in 2017 or 2018 I believe.
Quote from: Downtown Osprey on April 10, 2015, 10:22:41 AM
Given its demographics and culture, I think Austin would make for a great market for the MLS.
Yes it does seem that it would be a good fit. But the owner of their USL franchise (Austin Aztex) moved it to Orlando a few years ago because he wanted to join MLS, so I'm not sure what the backstory was with Austin. Orlando seems to have bent over backwards to facilitate building a stadium, etc., so maybe he just went to the city that offered the most lucrative deal and Austin didn't want to pony up.
Quote from: pierre on April 10, 2015, 10:35:03 AM
The issue with Austin is San Antonio already has a soccer stadium. It seats 8-9k right now and is expandable to 20k. If the league expands in Texas, it will be San Antonio.
San Antonio has a head start on Austin and it looks like they will miss out on this round of MLS expansion. So that gives Austin plenty of time to play catch up. All it takes is a committed group with a lot of money and a stadium plan. San Antonio's owner is trying to bring in some equity partners because he doesn't have the financial means to join MLS alone.
The approach here is odd. I know they said that they didn't look at secondary markets. Without it, I don't know that it's valid. According to them, there is capacity for 5 NFL teams in Florida. From a TV Market perspective alone it wouldn't work.
The Milwaukee Bucks president is threatening to move to Seattle or Vegas if they don't get an arena by 2017. It's not looking too good for MIL right now. The Seattle StarBucks?? The Las Vega$ MegaBucks?? just thoughts.
http://www.scrippsmedia.com/tmj4/wi-sports/milwaukee-bucks/WATCH-Joint-Finance-Committee-holds-Bucks-arena-hearing-311761741.html
http://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/bucks-president-threatens-move-to-vegas-seattle-070615
Quote from: I-10east on July 07, 2015, 09:22:30 AM
The Milwaukee Bucks president is threatening to move to Seattle or Vegas if they don't get an arena by 2017. It's not looking too good for MIL right now. The Seattle StarBucks?? The Las Vega$ MegaBucks?? just thoughts.
http://www.scrippsmedia.com/tmj4/wi-sports/milwaukee-bucks/WATCH-Joint-Finance-Committee-holds-Bucks-arena-hearing-311761741.html
http://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/bucks-president-threatens-move-to-vegas-seattle-070615
Just billionaire posturing trying to squeeze out money from the public.
IMO Carolina and to a lesser extent Arizona should not have NHL teams. When the home fan base are averaging in the 80 percentile in attendance, it could be understandable if the team isn't good, but it should be the bare minimal. Arizona has averaged 76 percent, and Carolina 63 percent in 2016 respectfully; very paltry, esp CAR.
As much as the Atlanta gets killed for not supporting the Thrashers, ARI's three year low of steadily declining attendance is right there with ATL in the 70 percentile (but averaging higher overall). Carolina is averaging MUCH LOWER than ATL did! CAR's three year slump is, (2014) 67 percent, (2015) 65 percent, and (2016) 63 percent (lowest in major arena sports). The Thrashers NEVER had an home percentage lower than 72 percent, and they are defunct.
If I was Gary Bettman the commish (who is incompetent IMO) I would show just a lil patience with ARI, but NONE with CAR. IMO Hamilton, Quebec City, and Seattle would be ideal potential relocation sites. Imagine if the Coyotes relocated to Mexico LOL.
http://www.espn.com/nhl/attendance
Carolina's team needs to move back to Hartford! They've got a rabid fanbase waiting for them there.
Quote from: johnnyliar on April 05, 2017, 07:39:40 AM
Carolina's team needs to move back to Hartford! They've got a rabid fanbase waiting for them there.
I moved to Hartford (well...Manchester) back in 1998. I was very unhappy to see I had just missed the Whalers. Emotions were still pretty raw when I arrived in June.
A market for a potential professional non-football team that gets overlooked IMO is Richmond. True it's a bit small and the support for a new arena is questionable but unlike their metro neighbors Hampton Roads they have a better economy, faster growth rate, less transient population, and a new arena would blow the Hampton Coliseum and The SCOPE out of the water (plus I'm sure some of these big ticket acts that keep playing their amphitheater would love to perform in a state of the art indoor venue for a change). Also they don't have the same loyalty to college sports as most places in the South and the protective regionalism that's more entrenched in places like Tennessee, North Carolina, and Florida is not as much a factor (except for the DC suburbs which they can exploit to drum up support with a natural rival).
But what really sets Richmond apart beside being the capital of a state that could easily rally statewide support for a franchise a la the state of Oklahoma is the corporate wealth in the region (same for Hartford and Kansas City to a lesser extent). A lot of pro franchises are propped up by the corporate community stepping up and buying season tickets for business purposes, and they can also fall back on the fact that there are two sizable media markets they can draw support from. That combination of big-pocketed businesses and exclusivity along with a first-class venue is why the NHL franchises in Raleigh and San Jose has worked all these years and Atlanta's left (how Phoenix keeps its hockey team or St. Pete its baseball team remains a mystery).
Let's not forget about London :P
Quote from: Adam White on April 05, 2017, 10:25:57 AM
Let's not forget about London :P
Yeah :P indeed...stop being so daft!
Quote from: sanmarcomatt on April 05, 2017, 10:36:49 AM
Quote from: Adam White on April 05, 2017, 07:46:38 AM
Quote from: johnnyliar on April 05, 2017, 07:39:40 AM
Carolina's team needs to move back to Hartford! They've got a rabid fanbase waiting for them there.
I moved to Hartford (well...Manchester) back in 1998. I was very unhappy to see I had just missed the Whalers. Emotions were still pretty raw when I arrived in June.
Ahh...now you are heading down my memory lane. We lived in Manchester(worked in Hartford)in 98 and were previously part of a group that had Whaler season tickets. Yeah, we were pretty bitter about the Whale moving.
Crazy. I was a Field Consultant for 7-Eleven. Our offices were in South Windsor and I was responsible for 8 CT stores - scattered around the state. We lived in the Velvet Mills apartments - the converted factory near Main Street.
The NHL's problem has always been that they want to operate like the other 3 leagues with operations across the U.S. and Canada, but hockey is still a niche sport outside of "hockey country". We didn't even consistently have consistent minor league hockey in the Sun Belt until the 90s, the same time the NHL started moving teams here at a furious pace. There have been a few success stories like Tampa Bay and Nashville but even more flops like the Arizona Coyotes, Florida Panthers, the erstwhile Atlanta Thrashers, and of course the Hurricanes. It's telling that Tampa Bay and LA are the only 2 teams from outside traditional hockey country in the top half of the NHL attendance bracket (and some others like Boston and the New York Rangers would be higher ranked if they didn't play in comparatively smaller venues). Atlanta has at this point lost 2 different NHL teams to small Canadian cities. And yet, the NHL's next expansion is Las Vegas.
If things don't change, the Hurricanes will probably not be in Raleigh forever. It doesn't help that they've been terrible, but the owner has been trying to sell for several years and apparently can't find anyone who'll keep the team in the area. Meanwhile both Hamilton, ON and Quebec City have been angling for teams and Seattle is seen as a good market. The Coyotes seem even more vulnerable; the only reason they're still in Phoenix is that the bankruptcy court forbid them to leave as part of their decision some years ago. They haven't improved their fortunes drastically since then.
#BlastFromThePast on this thread...whoa.
It would be interesting to do this again, with
- Updated data
- Teams that have moved
- Including TV Markets and impacts. That affects Football disproportionately since Football works with a national TV Deal. In the other leads the primary deals are with the teams and the national networks pick up out of market games (with some exceptions).
Quote from: Downtown Osprey on April 10, 2015, 10:22:41 AM
Given its demographics and culture, I think Austin would make for a great market for the MLS.
Columbus Crew are officially exploring a move to Austin.
http://www.mystatesman.com/sports/soccer/mls-franchise-columbus-crew-exploring-move-austin/Hda6a3JApqQNZ2tfea6bTP/
A few nuggets:
1) Columbus' stadium, which opened to much fanfare as the league's first soccer-specific stadium in 1999, is now outdated and is the primary catalyst for a move. Secondary concerns include dwindling attendance, corporate support, and relevance in the city.
2) MLS supports the potential move, provided an appropriate soccer-specific stadium site can be developed in the Austin urban core. MLS believes being in the urban core is very important.
Quote from: ProjectMaximus on October 18, 2017, 08:17:35 PM
Quote from: Downtown Osprey on April 10, 2015, 10:22:41 AM
Given its demographics and culture, I think Austin would make for a great market for the MLS.
Columbus Crew are officially exploring a move to Austin.
http://www.mystatesman.com/sports/soccer/mls-franchise-columbus-crew-exploring-move-austin/Hda6a3JApqQNZ2tfea6bTP/
A few nuggets:
1) Columbus' stadium, which opened to much fanfare as the league's first soccer-specific stadium in 1999, is now outdated and is the primary catalyst for a move. Secondary concerns include dwindling attendance, corporate support, and relevance in the city.
2) MLS supports the potential move, provided an appropriate soccer-specific stadium site can be developed in the Austin urban core. MLS believes being in the urban core is very important.
That sucks. At some point MLS is going to have to build up in their mature markets. They can't rely on expansion bumps and new stadiums indefinitely. They'll probably hit 30 teams (or more) within 10 years and after that, if they can't hang on even in good sized markets like Columbus, they'll go the way of the 1980s NASL.
Quote from: Tacachale on October 19, 2017, 12:08:54 PM
Quote from: ProjectMaximus on October 18, 2017, 08:17:35 PM
Quote from: Downtown Osprey on April 10, 2015, 10:22:41 AM
Given its demographics and culture, I think Austin would make for a great market for the MLS.
Columbus Crew are officially exploring a move to Austin.
http://www.mystatesman.com/sports/soccer/mls-franchise-columbus-crew-exploring-move-austin/Hda6a3JApqQNZ2tfea6bTP/
A few nuggets:
1) Columbus' stadium, which opened to much fanfare as the league's first soccer-specific stadium in 1999, is now outdated and is the primary catalyst for a move. Secondary concerns include dwindling attendance, corporate support, and relevance in the city.
2) MLS supports the potential move, provided an appropriate soccer-specific stadium site can be developed in the Austin urban core. MLS believes being in the urban core is very important.
That sucks. At some point MLS is going to have to build up in their mature markets. They can't rely on expansion bumps and new stadiums indefinitely. They'll probably hit 30 teams (or more) within 10 years and after that, if they can't hang on even in good sized markets like Columbus, they'll go the way of the 1980s NASL.
Right. Austin and Columbus are relatively similar locales as well. The BlueJackets are very popular in Columbus though. In Austin, an MLS franchise will probably be the only show in town other than UT for the foreseeable future.
^Yeah, the attendance is fine in Columbus. The owner claims they aren't making money, but it could just be searching for an excuse to move to a new market. I don't understand their game; Austin has repeatedly said they won't give money for a new stadium, but Columbus is amenable.