Conventional wisdom in Jacksonville for more than two years has been that Alvin Brown enjoys near invincible favorability. But a new survey from St. Pete Polls turns that notion upside down.
The poll reveals the incumbent mayor is in deep trouble and is facing a political environment that is moving away from him as more voters see Jacksonville headed on the wrong track than the right one. Also, 53 percent of voters say they are ready for a new mayor with under 40 percent saying Brown deserves to be re-elected.
Combined, this data is showing a serious collapse of the strength Brown enjoyed just last year.
http://www.saintpetersblog.com/archives/177173
I still believe Brown will win but this definitely shows that Brown's strategy of non spending winning over the fiscal conservatives to be flawed. In todays political climate it is hard to win votes across party lines. Brown should benefit from it being a presidential year.
^In what way do you mean presidential year? By this I mean what impact do you see on Brown in tandem with what is happening in a race for president?
Quote from: JeffreyS on January 26, 2015, 01:44:56 PM
I still believe Brown will win but this definitely shows that Brown's strategy of non spending winning over the fiscal conservatives to be flawed. In todays political climate it is hard to win votes across party lines. Brown should benefit from it being a presidential year.
Non spending is absolutely flawed. While his budget wish list was inspiring, without the willingness to fund it except by a lot of new debt is showing Brown for what he is. A dreamer. Jacksonville is in trouble. We have an ineffective Mayor, a stubborn City Council, and an unwillingness to do what it really takes to fix downtown. There may be no answer for this because of Consolidation. Who really cares about downtown anyway? Aside, that is, from a very small but committed group of believers and stake holders.
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on January 26, 2015, 01:19:28 PM
Conventional wisdom in Jacksonville for more than two years has been that Alvin Brown enjoys near invincible favorability. But a new survey from St. Pete Polls turns that notion upside down.
The poll reveals the incumbent mayor is in deep trouble and is facing a political environment that is moving away from him as more voters see Jacksonville headed on the wrong track than the right one. Also, 53 percent of voters say they are ready for a new mayor with under 40 percent saying Brown deserves to be re-elected.
Combined, this data is showing a serious collapse of the strength Brown enjoyed just last year.
http://www.saintpetersblog.com/archives/177173
Brown has a core of supporters who will turn out from him no matter what, but his serial incompetence makes him very vulnerable, especially with Lenny Curry continuing to pick up steam.
Quote from: JeffreyS on January 26, 2015, 01:44:56 PM
I still believe Brown will win but this definitely shows that Brown's strategy of non spending winning over the fiscal conservatives to be flawed. In todays political climate it is hard to win votes across party lines. Brown should benefit from it being a presidential year.
It's not a presidential election year.
^The conventional wisdom I believe the writer of this article is referring to is a general understanding in politics of the difficulty in challenging an incumbent office holder. In this case a challenge to Brown. It is usually understood and accepted that a challenge to a person who is an incumbent and has not been involved in scandal, with a decent or sizable bank account is a risky thing. Brown had been posting decent approval numbers for a period of time and had managed to raise a sizable campaign account. Using this as a measure political watchers and serious candidates understand that mounting a challenge to a sitting elected official is difficult, especially if they have a serious money behind them and the support of their party and major players, in Browns case that would be Shad Khan and the Democrat party. What we are seeing now in Jacksonville is the outcropping of Brown's lack of leadership and competence. It was apparent that what was happening in Jacksonville was going to fall outside of "conventional wisdom". Bill Bishop was the first to not only recognize this fact but to act upon it be getting into the race for mayor. Also recognizing this fact and having an ax to grind, Republican Peter Rummell who had funded and backed Brown in his first election, publicly called out his incompetence while courting Republican Lenny Curry to run against Brown.
Quote from: Tacachale on January 26, 2015, 03:32:34 PM
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on January 26, 2015, 01:19:28 PM
Conventional wisdom in Jacksonville for more than two years has been that Alvin Brown enjoys near invincible favorability. But a new survey from St. Pete Polls turns that notion upside down.
The poll reveals the incumbent mayor is in deep trouble and is facing a political environment that is moving away from him as more voters see Jacksonville headed on the wrong track than the right one. Also, 53 percent of voters say they are ready for a new mayor with under 40 percent saying Brown deserves to be re-elected.
Combined, this data is showing a serious collapse of the strength Brown enjoyed just last year.
http://www.saintpetersblog.com/archives/177173
Brown has a core of supporters who will turn out from him no matter what, but his serial incompetence makes him very vulnerable, especially with Lenny Curry continuing to pick up steam.
Quote from: JeffreyS on January 26, 2015, 01:44:56 PM
I still believe Brown will win but this definitely shows that Brown's strategy of non spending winning over the fiscal conservatives to be flawed. In todays political climate it is hard to win votes across party lines. Brown should benefit from it being a presidential year.
It's not a presidential election year.
Tacachale, you are correct he has core supporters but it is interesting to note that many of those who once favored him greatly, now have found great dissatisfaction in him and his representation including many in the cities most challenged districts/communities who see Brown as a guy who has effectively ignored his own while at the same time portending support for them. Nothing tangible to his talk. The only one he has really thrilled at all is Shad Khan who got all that he needed support wise from Brown along with Tony Sleiman owner of the Landing who is looking to broker a sweet deal for himself. His supporters are now hard core Dems who only want to keep a so called Dem in office and others who feel they have created some degree of influence in his office.
Not being a Presidential year helps any contenders don't know how I confused that.
I will be leery of GOP candidates but will look at them which doesn't speak well of the Mayor.
One breakdown of the numbers in the poll that begins this thread. http://floridapolitics.com/archives/4978
Four questions were posed in the poll:
Do you feel that Jacksonville is on the right track or the wrong track?
Should mayor Alvin Brown be re-elected, or is it time for a new mayor?
If the election were held today for Jacksonville mayor, would you vote for Alvin Brown, Lenny Curry, Bill Bishop or someone else?
If the election for Jacksonville mayor were between Alvin Brown and Lenny Curry, who would you vote for?
and
Brown's support in a multiparty race, when broken down, may not be as encouraging as the initial number. Almost 62% of Democrats would vote for him against Curry and Bishop – another indication of the erosion of white liberal support for the incumbent. One encouraging augury: the fact that, among all races except for whites in a multipolar contest, Brown holds an advantage over Curry and Bishop. One more discouraging finding: if these results hold true in March, only 23% of whites will vote for the incumbent.
Here's a deeper dive into the numbers from Jacksonville's AG Gancarski.
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/4978
I don't agree with all the conclusions reached by the poll (or the analysis), but this supports the new conventional wisdom among people in my circle. The Mayor has been largely abandoned by the I'm With Audrey crowd from 2011. Progressives, LGBT, Avondale types. Time is running out for the Mayor to win us back. And it appears his folks think they can win without us. But I don't see how...
I take exception to the idea that there's no path to victory for Bill Bishop. We have Mayor Brown with his built in base. Then we have Lenny Curry, who I would argue is to the right of Mike Hogan, who lost last time out. Bill Bishop is the choice of middle-of-the-road types. His is the vote that was split last time by Audrey Moran and Rick Mullaney, who apparently had a Mutual Assured Destruction factor going on. There's a lot of race to be run between now and March.
Are there any Mayoral debates scheduled? There were 3 debates before the First Election in 2011.
Jimmy, there are a few candidate forums set up but not much in the way of debates (perhaps by design?) which I think is extremely unfortunate and I hope that changes. There is a single candidate forum on tap which is Candidate Forum for all
City Jacksonville
candidates
St. Paul A.M.E.Church
6910 New Kings Rd.
Jacksonville, FL 32219 February 26, 2015
5:00PM-6:00PM Meet & Greet
6:00PM
There was also a scheduled forum with the Meninak Club, which Bill Bishop is to attend but the other candidates for Mayor at first said they would not and then one, changing their mind. I believe that was Brown but need to verify that.
It was Lenny Curry who backed out of the Meninak Club forum, said he would go and has yet again backed out of the forum.
Thanks, Diane.
A.G. is telling me there's at least one, to be held at WJCT. That's a good start.
That's good news. The best thing that could happen for Jacksonville is a series of good debates for the office of mayor.
Quote from: JeffreyS on January 26, 2015, 01:44:56 PM
I still believe Brown will win but this definitely shows that Brown's strategy of non spending winning over the fiscal conservatives to be flawed. In todays political climate it is hard to win votes across party lines. Brown should benefit from it being a presidential year.
It is a presidential year. A number of Republican candidates have declared for Curry. Rubio and Gov. Rick Perry. And Sen. Ted Cruz is coming to keynote speak at the Feb 20th Lincoln Day Dinner ($120 a plate). Sen. Ted's coming to "test the water" but he wont be at the beach.
Diane, is Rummel backing Lenny? In the TU article last year, I read Rummel condemned Brown for lack of leadership with his non support of HRO in particular. Didnt Rummel himself support HRO word for word?
I agree with this article, the election is a complete toss up and its very possible Mayor Lenny could take this election in March.
Quote from: Jimmy on January 26, 2015, 06:05:29 PM
I take exception to the idea that there's no path to victory for Bill Bishop. We have Mayor Brown with his built in base. Then we have Lenny Curry, who I would argue is to the right of Mike Hogan, who lost last time out. Bill Bishop is the choice of middle-of-the-road types. His is the vote that was split last time by Audrey Moran and Rick Mullaney, who apparently had a Mutual Assured Destruction factor going on. There's a lot of race to be run between now and March.
Are there any Mayoral debates scheduled? There were 3 debates before the First Election in 2011.
Curry is not to the right of Hogan. Clearly, you've never spoken with him.
Yes Jerry, Rummell is backing Lenny Curry in a big way. It is considered an election year the year the election actually is held. That will be in 2016, so this year is not actually a presidential election year. :)
Mike, Lenny having received the endorsement of Rick Scott, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Pam Bondi and others does indeed place him firmly to the right as did his position as chairman and fundraiser to the GOP of Florida. I believe it is Rubio who has caused Lenny to affirm that he would not back any trade with or engage the Cuban government in spite of Obama's recent actions. For a town in Florida on the east coast with a focus on shipping this is a questionable position for someone to take who is running for Mayor. Brown has said he will wait to see what congress does. lol As usual he is taking no position on the issue as that would require independent thought and leadership. The only candidate who says he would support engaging Cuba is Bill Bishop. The other interesting thing that is not on the radar of most is the reality that there is a rift between Peter Rummell, who backs Curry and Shad Khan who is financially backing Alvin Brown. It leads one to wonder what if any impact that disconnect would have if Curry should take office. The reality is that all the candidates back the Jaguars and the team really has no worried regardless of who is elected.
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on January 26, 2015, 08:17:05 PM
Mike, Lenny having received the endorsement of Rick Scott, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Pam Bondi and others does indeed place him firmly to the right as did his position as chairman and fundraiser to the GOP of Florida. I believe it is Rubio who has caused Lenny to affirm that he would not back any trade with or engage the Cuban government in spite of Obama's recent actions. For a town in Florida on the east coast with a focus on shipping this is a questionable position for someone to take who is running for Mayor. Brown has said he will wait to see what congress does. lol As usual he is taking no position on the issue as that would require independent thought and leadership. The only candidate who says he would support engaging Cuba is Bill Bishop. The other interesting thing that is not on the radar of most is the reality that there is a rift between Peter Rummell, who backs Curry and Shad Khan who is financially backing Alvin Brown. It leads one to wonder what if any impact that disconnect would have if Curry should take office. The reality is that all the candidates back the Jaguars and the team really has no worried regardless of who is elected.
Yeah, that condemnation by Curry of Cuba in no uncertain terms rocked the boat hard hard starboard. Those words wont be taken back. Its strong rhetoric. And, as you described, makes NO sense.
^Exactly. It only makes sense if your are courting "just" hard right conservatives as do his endorsements. Lenny is definitely on the right in supporting the view of Rubio on this and not at all moderate, at least during this campaign. I like Lenny as a person mind you but am not a fan of most GOP leadership though I have on occasion voted Republican as a Democrat for the right candidate.
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on January 26, 2015, 08:17:05 PM
Mike, Lenny having received the endorsement of Rick Scott, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Pam Bondi and others does indeed place him firmly to the right as did his position as chairman and fundraiser to the GOP of Florida. I believe it is Rubio who has caused Lenny to affirm that he would not back any trade with or engage the Cuban government in spite of Obama's recent actions. For a town in Florida on the east coast with a focus on shipping this is a questionable position for someone to take who is running for Mayor. Brown has said he will wait to see what congress does. lol As usual he is taking no position on the issue as that would require independent thought and leadership. The only candidate who says he would support engaging Cuba is Bill Bishop. The other interesting thing that is not on the radar of most is the reality that there is a rift between Peter Rummell, who backs Curry and Shad Khan who is financially backing Alvin Brown. It leads one to wonder what if any impact that disconnect would have if Curry should take office. The reality is that all the candidates back the Jaguars and the team really has no worried regardless of who is elected.
Not sure what a decades-old federal trade embargo has to do with the Jacksonville's mayors race, the mayor of Jacksonville has zero influence on federal trade policy. I could also care less what a mayor's position is on things like abortion, marijuana and social security.. As neither of those are influenced by the mayor of Jacksonville either.
The first time I ever met Alvin Brown, I heard a lot about Bill Clinton. I could care less about who Clinton endorsed for mayor.. Just as I could care less who Rick Perry endorsed for mayor. I care about who is the best leader for our city.
Mike the raising of that embargo with Cuba opens up new and interesting opportunities for Jacksonville if we are smart. Sure it was a Federal trade policy but that does not mean that our city cannot court independent corporations and business in Cuba now and encourage trade agreements. I think what you are missing is that Lenny is not just some guy who is a Republican. He was in fact and remains a part of the state GOP power structure. The GOP is looking to secure it's hold on local state governments and those Florida counties that generally vote Republican. Duval is huge and what happens here impacts what happens at the state level when it comes to presidential elections. It would behoove them to have a Scott supported candidate in the office of mayor for a variety of reasons at the state and federal level. The support of heavy weights along with their financial backing does not come to local candidates because they are nice guys. It comes with a price and that price is a seat at the table that governs Jacksonville. I would completely agree that national discussions like abortion have no place in a discussion about local government, however in a port city trade policies definitely do. :)
Quote from: fieldafm on January 26, 2015, 08:36:03 PM
Not sure what a decades-old federal trade embargo has to do with the Jacksonville's mayors race, the mayor of Jacksonville has zero influence on federal trade policy. I could also care less what a mayor's position is on things like abortion, marijuana and social security.. As neither of those are influenced by the mayor of Jacksonville either.
fieldafm, have you noticed that Jacksonville is a port city? One that does a lot of trade with Latin America? Opening up trade with Cuba could have economic benefits for Jacksonville, if the leadership is willing to embrace it.
Quote from: fieldafm on January 26, 2015, 08:36:03 PM
.... I care about who is the best leader for our city.
They're not running.
^+1
Quote from: Non-RedNeck Westsider on January 26, 2015, 08:48:58 PM
Quote from: fieldafm on January 26, 2015, 08:36:03 PM
.... I care about who is the best leader for our city.
They're not running.
There is a competent individual with experience challenging Alvin Brown. As far as who is best, as in all things that depends on what ones hopes for the city are. If it is GOP control, Lenny is best, if it is experience and a record to back it up, Bill Bishop is best. If it is ribbon cutting, media appearances and big talk tagged with a "D", Alvin Brown fits the ticket. :)
Quote from: fieldafm on January 26, 2015, 08:36:03 PM
Not sure what a decades-old federal trade embargo has to do with the Jacksonville's mayors race, the mayor of Jacksonville has zero influence on federal trade policy.
I can get on board with your point that the Mayor may not have much influence on the Cuba embargo. However I wouldn't be at all comfortable with someone who put partisan national politics(if that is the reasoning) ahead of an opportunity this great for Jacksonville and all of Florida.
^Therein lies the rub Jeffrey. The endorsements Lenny has received along with the money is an indicator that there will be great expectations put upon Curry's commitment to a partisan GOP platform. As I stated earlier there are reasons for this type of support. If Lenny should win and fail to adhere to the wishes of those whose support and finance got him in office he will be finished with the GOP and politics connected to them should he ever want to run for a higher office. Alvin Brown found out first hand what failing to meet the expectations of heavyweight Republican Peter Rummell did to him. He turned on Brown big time and looked to Lenny instead. Rummell's financial return on his investment wasn't a good one. When you look at figures like Rubio and Jeb Bush it is not financial investments they are making with Lenny, it is political and the expectation is to keep supporting the State GOP platform.
Regarding upcoming debates. Jim Piggot just told me JU is holding some. Will try and get that info to share tomorrow.
Quote from: fieldafm on January 26, 2015, 08:01:05 PM
Curry is not to the right of Hogan. Clearly, you've never spoken with him.
Others have defended my point better than I could. I'll just say that Curry is clearly to the right of Bishop, which is actually what matters most in terms of positioning for this election.
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on January 26, 2015, 08:47:43 PM
He was in fact and remains a part of the state GOP power structure. The GOP is looking to secure it's hold on local state governments and those Florida counties that generally vote Republican. Duval is huge and what happens here impacts what happens at the state level when it comes to presidential elections. It would behoove them to have a Scott supported candidate in the office of mayor for a variety of reasons at the state and federal level.
Diane, this is why I believe it is a presidential year. Having a democrat in the Mayorship takes an incredible amount of wind out of the Republican armada. So it goes also for also Bishop, who is of the same party of Scott. When Cruz, Perry, Huckabee, PALIN come to town, will Bill wave at the crowd hands together? One decision Brown made was not to align himself with President Obama. With a strong anti Obama sentiment, not exclusively conservative, should he get credit for that choice?
Quote from: Charles Hunter on January 26, 2015, 08:48:11 PM
Quote from: fieldafm on January 26, 2015, 08:36:03 PM
Not sure what a decades-old federal trade embargo has to do with the Jacksonville's mayors race, the mayor of Jacksonville has zero influence on federal trade policy. I could also care less what a mayor's position is on things like abortion, marijuana and social security.. As neither of those are influenced by the mayor of Jacksonville either.
fieldafm, have you noticed that Jacksonville is a port city? One that does a lot of trade with Latin America? Opening up trade with Cuba could have economic benefits for Jacksonville, if the leadership is willing to embrace it.
I'm clearly aware. Making Cuba a campaign issue is a waste of time. The mayor of Jacksonville cannot unilaterally decide to start trading with Cuba, that's a federal issue. Btw, Jacksonville and New Orleans are Cuba's main US trading partners now.
Jacksonville as a city is having trouble providing basic government services.. like fixing potholes and mowing grass. Voting for someone based on what they say about Cuba (or chest bumping their endorsements from governors and presidents who don't live here) is a distraction from the real issues facing our community.
I'm for expanding trade with Cuba if the embargo is lifted. I'm also against abortion. Neither of those are influenced by the Mayor of Jacksonville.
Quote from: fieldafm on January 27, 2015, 05:33:52 AM
Quote from: Charles Hunter on January 26, 2015, 08:48:11 PM
Quote from: fieldafm on January 26, 2015, 08:36:03 PM
Not sure what a decades-old federal trade embargo has to do with the Jacksonville's mayors race, the mayor of Jacksonville has zero influence on federal trade policy. I could also care less what a mayor's position is on things like abortion, marijuana and social security.. As neither of those are influenced by the mayor of Jacksonville either.
fieldafm, have you noticed that Jacksonville is a port city? One that does a lot of trade with Latin America? Opening up trade with Cuba could have economic benefits for Jacksonville, if the leadership is willing to embrace it.
I'm clearly aware. Making Cuba a campaign issue is a waste of time. The mayor of Jacksonville cannot unilaterally decide to start trading with Cuba, that's a federal issue. Btw, Jacksonville and New Orleans are Cuba's main US trading partners now.
Jacksonville as a city is having trouble providing basic government services.. like fixing potholes and mowing grass. Voting for someone based on what they say about Cuba (or chest bumping their endorsements from governors and presidents who don't live here) is a distraction from the real issues facing our community.
I'm for expanding trade with Cuba if the embargo is lifted. I'm also against abortion. Neither of those are influenced by the Mayor of Jacksonville.
Knowing what position a potential Jacksonville Mayor will take on larger issues like Cuba or Abortion is far from a waste of time. It goes to what motivates the candidate, who he will be listening to and can give us a look into how his thought processes work. And that can go a long way to seeing how they will handle the things we truly need to address like Downtown and the simple pot hole fixing. For instance, just looking at the three main candidates' responses about Cuba. Lenny Curry came across as close minded. How will he deal with Downtown when the issues are all about being open minded to future benefits? Brown seemed to be waiting for someone else to tell him what to think so then with him as Mayor, who is running the show and who is truly benefiting from him as Mayor? Bishop seems to see the future potential in Cuba and so perhaps being more open minded, may also be more likely to see the potential in our Downtown. Of course, this is just one small part of the total equation that we need to be looking at as voters, but it is at least a pretty simple one and one that can be easily understood by the majority of voters.
Quote from: strider on January 27, 2015, 08:11:45 AM
Quote from: fieldafm on January 27, 2015, 05:33:52 AM
Quote from: Charles Hunter on January 26, 2015, 08:48:11 PM
Quote from: fieldafm on January 26, 2015, 08:36:03 PM
Not sure what a decades-old federal trade embargo has to do with the Jacksonville's mayors race, the mayor of Jacksonville has zero influence on federal trade policy. I could also care less what a mayor's position is on things like abortion, marijuana and social security.. As neither of those are influenced by the mayor of Jacksonville either.
fieldafm, have you noticed that Jacksonville is a port city? One that does a lot of trade with Latin America? Opening up trade with Cuba could have economic benefits for Jacksonville, if the leadership is willing to embrace it.
I'm clearly aware. Making Cuba a campaign issue is a waste of time. The mayor of Jacksonville cannot unilaterally decide to start trading with Cuba, that's a federal issue. Btw, Jacksonville and New Orleans are Cuba's main US trading partners now.
Jacksonville as a city is having trouble providing basic government services.. like fixing potholes and mowing grass. Voting for someone based on what they say about Cuba (or chest bumping their endorsements from governors and presidents who don't live here) is a distraction from the real issues facing our community.
I'm for expanding trade with Cuba if the embargo is lifted. I'm also against abortion. Neither of those are influenced by the Mayor of Jacksonville.
Knowing what position a potential Jacksonville Mayor will take on larger issues like Cuba or Abortion is far from a waste of time. It goes to what motivates the candidate, who he will be listening to and can give us a look into how his thought processes work. And that can go a long way to seeing how they will handle the things we truly need to address like Downtown and the simple pot hole fixing. For instance, just looking at the three main candidates' responses about Cuba. Lenny Curry came across as close minded. How will he deal with Downtown when the issues are all about being open minded to future benefits? Brown seemed to be waiting for someone else to tell him what to think so then with him as Mayor, who is running the show and who is truly benefiting from him as Mayor? Bishop seems to see the future potential in Cuba and so perhaps being more open minded, may also be more likely to see the potential in our Downtown. Of course, this is just one small part of the total equation that we need to be looking at as voters, but it is at least a pretty simple one and one that can be easily understood by the majority of voters.
So basically you are saying that Curry is someone that will tow the party line, regardless of the nuances that directly affect the city. Further, Brown is waiting to see which way the wind is blowing, before (maybe) taking a stand. Lastly, Bishop is actually open to weighing the merits. pro and con and reaching his own conclusion.
Yeah I'd say that about covers it.
^
Agree Vic and Joe. This is precisely the type of insight that is missing when it comes to understanding who a candidate is and helps one to make a more informed choice. I appreciate and respect your view as well Mike but don't agree that an issue like how a candidate of a port city feels about the engaging Cuba after the embargo is lifted is unimportant. For a port city it is and that will evidence itself down the road. :)
fieldafm, have you noticed that Jacksonville is a port city? One that does a lot of trade with Latin America? Opening up trade with Cuba could have economic benefits for Jacksonville, if the leadership is willing to embrace it.
Jerry, I see what you are saying. The general political wisdom about a presidential election year is that more voters in all parties come out to vote for President and people are more attuned to issues of importance at all levels. You are correct that political moves regarding the next presidential election are underway. I would agree that Browns non action when it came to supporting an incumbent Democratic president during his re-election efforts was a non starter and should have been for all Democrats. Brown acts and moves in his own interest and in the interest of those he wishes to appease and appeal to at any given moment. We have seen this politically time and time again and even in his personal interactions in his response to his "declared" friend Bill Cosby who he was more than willing to identify with and tout as a buddy until he met with some allegations of a sexual nature. Brown then dropped him like a hot potato in spite of the fact that he had not been proved guilty. Brown also returned the campaign funds he received at his Cosby campaign fundraiser, all out of town donors who clearly have an agenda of some sort for our city and an event that Brown dissed the city's budget hearings for. This all goes to reliability, priorities and how Brown responds to uncomfortable news before the facts are known. These traits are terribly important in any elected official.
Bishop's a good guy and a good councilman, but he's got no hope of beating Brown. He just hasn't raised the support, money or buzz. This poll just hammers home the point. Our choices are really Brown and Curry.
I'm with Field, I don't care what politicians say about abstract issues if it's not going to have direct results on the job. Alvin Brown says all kind of things that I like and agree with. Unfortunately, all that talk has come to nothing good. I'd rather have someone who'll do things rather than say things.
Quote from: Tacachale on January 27, 2015, 09:24:20 AM
I'd rather have someone who'll do things rather than say things.
Be careful what you wish for doing things is often worse than not doing things.
Mayors advocate for national issues that affect their constituents all the time. Mayors have political aspirations beyond being Mayor all the time. Their ideas about national issues may well guide their decisions away from local interests especially if they belong to a party that covets purity of record about things like taxes and shuns "RINOs".
^Rather than speak in hypotheticals, I'll say this. It's hard to get worse than what we've got right now. Under Alvin Brown's leadership, we have a city that can't fund basic services, that can't control its crime rate, that can't manage its own budget, and that has punted on every major issue from the HRO to the port to the pension fiasco. Until we fix the basic functions of the city government, the rest of it doesn't matter.
Agreed.
Quote from: Tacachale on January 27, 2015, 10:31:22 AM
^Rather than speak in hypotheticals, I'll say this. It's hard to get worse than what we've got right now. Under Alvin Brown's leadership, we have a city that can't fund basic services, that can't control its crime rate, that can't manage its own budget, and that has punted on every major issue from the HRO to the port to the pension fiasco. Until we fix the basic functions of the city government, the rest of it doesn't matter.
Quoted for truth.
Another planned debate:
RE: Race for Mayor
Schindler, Anne (aschindler@wtlv.gannett.com) Add to contacts 8:41 AM Keep this message at the top of your inbox
To: Diane Melendez, WTLV-NEWS-FCN
aschindler@wtlv.gannett.com
Diane,
We are planning to host a mayoral debate in March. Details to come.
Thanks for your interest.
Best,
Anne
Anne Schindler
Executive Producer, Special Projects
First Coast News
This goes to the importance of voters being involved in the election process not only for the office of Mayor but also for those who seek legislative positions on our council. In order to fix the basic functions of city government we have to understand that who we elect for any office "does" matter. Simply saying it does not matter cause we have problems in our base government functions is a cop out. Here is the thing about the race for mayor and those open legislative offices. Citizens often lose sight of the fact that when we elect someone we are actually hiring them to fill very important positions in our city government. We the taxpayers pay their salaries. In any business when someone applies for a job we ask for their resume and look to see if the person applying for the job has the experience and skills necessary to do a "competent" job. So who are we the voters going to hire and what drives our choices? If we continue to buy into the "propaganda" fed us by media and some political pundits in tandem with old beliefs that the value of the applicant depends upon his/her bank account, not his/her experience for the job the person is applying for we fail ourselves and our city. The idea of a measure of money began with the false notion that the person with the most support money got that money because those giving it see them as competent for the job. That is a faulty thinking. Perhaps there was a time in history where that measure of support could be an indicator of something good about a candidate but in today's world donations driven by partisan politics, PAC's and big money donations from special interest groups and business corporations the belief that money is the measure is completely undermined at all levels. Even the small donor who gives to support a party ethic rather than an individual in an unitary election is supporting a political party as opposed to promoting the best person for the job. When was it that how much a campaign raised became the measure of the candidate? That happened when we allowed money to become the measure of all things of value in this process. Just as readily as we decided that money is the measure, we can wake ourselves from that delusion and remember that the decision to "hire/elect" an individual for public office should and must be driven by their expertise, skills and competence. We change this faulty idea by doing our own due diligence as voters and researching the candidates. We demanding that all those who are on the local ballot for the top offices participate in open debate with the other candidates. We moan and groan that we never get good candidates running for public office. That is a lie. We often get good candidates yet utterly fail to listen to them if they don't fit the false paradigm of money and political social status. Did anyone ever think about the fact that this city could make open debate by candidates a "requirement" for the candidates and that the city or state could sponsor those debates if driven by legislation? If there was a single debate format that reinforced the idea of "unitary" and the voting public knew it was going to take place and that filed candidates for the office were required to participate in it, the public would all know when the "interview" for the candidate was taking place. Instead of understanding platforms and plans people are deciding who to vote for based upon "sound bites" in commercials and campaign information to decide who holds the top office in our city. For the current election we should understand that it has not happened yet, there is still time for a vetting process, still time to check the "resume's and records" of those running for office, to get behind any candidate on the ballot with time and effort if not money. We the people should be the driving force that decides who is fit for office and as things stand now, we the people have not taken full responsibility in the process of who is elected and why. Right now there are four candidates on the ballot for mayor and anything can happen when people start thinking differently about the process and how a candidate is measured. For now those who want a better Jacksonville need to start vetting those running for office along with verifying they have the needed experience to hold that office as opposed to just flashy ads and big dreams without having a plan to fill those dreams. Wake up Jacksonville! It is time.
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on January 27, 2015, 12:37:09 PM
Another planned debate:
RE: Race for Mayor
Schindler, Anne (aschindler@wtlv.gannett.com) Add to contacts 8:41 AM Keep this message at the top of your inbox
To: Diane Melendez, WTLV-NEWS-FCN
aschindler@wtlv.gannett.com
Diane,
We are planning to host a mayoral debate in March. Details to come.
Thanks for your interest.
Best,
Anne
Anne Schindler
Executive Producer, Special Projects
First Coast News
I wish they would hold the debate next to the hole in Liberty Street. Perfect symbol of an incompetent government.
^True but if that is the case we need another "hole" to represent those who neither vote or research the candidates they put into office. :) It is up to the people to get involved and change what is broken. We have got to drive the process as opposed to it or special interests driving us.
^ Yeah, well, I've spent the last couple of years trying to get government to do something about the hole. Several emails and calls to the mayor's office, chat's with Jim Robinson at public works, many conversations with various members of City Council. Still we have a hole in the core. So at least I've tried.
You sure have tried. Right now the city is claiming it hasn't the funds to do all the required repairs, yet it was announced yesterday that after an intensive search by Lori Boyer on council 12 million in unused funds were found apparently a collective amount from a variety of sources. The problem all goes back to leadership and on down the line to all those hired by the city in various departments.
Spoke with Debbie Guy an JU and they confirm they will be holding a debate forum for the candidates for mayor in March. The date has not been set but should be by next week. I will update that on this thread.
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on January 27, 2015, 02:41:18 PM
You sure have tried. Right now the city is claiming it hasn't the funds to do all the required repairs, yet it was announced yesterday that after an intensive search by Lori Boyer on council 12 million in unused funds were found apparently a collective amount from a variety of sources. The problem all goes back to leadership and on down the line to all those hired by the city in various departments.
The source of the problem is the Mayor's General Counsel. The GC dithered for over a year with the insurance company that should have paid to fix it, and finally decided to sue. City Council pretended they were impatient and were going to fix it now, and hope to recover the money later. But they lost their nerve, and there has been no movement for months. They blame the pension crisis. April 11th will be 3 years for the hole.
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on January 27, 2015, 08:59:33 AM
Brown acts and moves in his own interest and in the interest of those he wishes to appease and appeal to at any given moment. We have seen this politically time and time again and even in his personal interactions in his response to his "declared" friend Bill Cosby who he was more than willing to identify with and tout as a buddy until he met with some allegations of a sexual nature. Brown then dropped him like a hot potato in spite of the fact that he had not been proved guilty. Brown also returned the campaign funds he received at his Cosby campaign fundraiser, all out of town donors who clearly have an agenda of some sort for our city and an event that Brown dissed the city's budget hearings for. This all goes to reliability, priorities and how Brown responds to uncomfortable news before the facts are known. These traits are terribly important in any elected official.
I dont see a problem with this. The relevation of Cosby's past came out after the fundraising event. Furthering the return of outside donations to stim accusations of outside pandering seems well towards acheiving character in anyones campaign. Does Curry have the same ethics in his coffer? I feel a second round of ads coming.
Quote from: Tacachale on January 27, 2015, 10:31:22 AM
^Rather than speak in hypotheticals, I'll say this. It's hard to get worse than what we've got right now. Under Alvin Brown's leadership, we have a city that can't fund basic services, that can't control its crime rate, that can't manage its own budget, and that has punted on every major issue from the HRO to the port to the pension fiasco. Until we fix the basic functions of the city government, the rest of it doesn't matter.
While I'll say I see the city is in a bit better shape than you do, you bring a decisive point up in your conclusion of "fixing the basic functions of (our) city government. Unlike the federal government, Jax's executive branch is made up of many ELECTED executives, the sheriffs office for example. When you complain of the crime rate (and you are right) how does the elected sheriff escape blame and then passed directly to the mayor? No coincidence Sheriff Rutherford is term limted, he has no political liabilities to pay. Concerning fiscal issues, Ive seen the Mayor do some pretty good things, particularly the re finacing of many municipal instruments that netted the city millions of dollars. And, to my personal experience, my property taxes did stay the same.
The HRO legislation is essential for our future. The failure of its passage was the disaster of the past 4 years. But I hesitate to blame that on the Mayor as he has no involvement in its path towards passage. That key democratic coucilmen (legislaturers) voted against HRO. Brown has little/ no influence over these (democratic) councilmen. Tachale, you did point out that the Mayor does approve or veto city legislation. But could he use that power in any way for legislation that DOESNT pass?
QuoteBut I hesitate to blame that on the Mayor as he has no involvement in its path towards passage.
I'll beg to differ with extreme prejudice. In fact, his actions directly led to the HRO being defeated.
QuoteIve seen the Mayor do some pretty good things, particularly the re finacing of many municipal instruments that netted the city millions of dollars.
If refinancing bond debt is something to applaud.. then the Mayor's accomplishments are laughable. 2013 and 2014 saw massive refinancing of municipal bonds nationwide as rates dropped. That's like calling a CPA a financial wizard because they refinanced their home's mortgage when rates dropped 2%.
In fact, I would submit that the long term debt structure worsened... despite a one time savings due to bond refinancing... because the Mayor's budgets forced a large increase in public borrowering in FY2012 and FY2013 (City Council had to put a brake on the massive use of the City's credit card in the Mayor's budget during FY2014).
Quotehow does the elected sheriff escape blame and then passed directly to the mayor
When the Mayor cuts your budget-forcing a reduction in the police force (including eliminating pretty much every Community Service Officer).... and cuts funding for the Jacksonville Journey programs (enacted under Mayor Peyton... that had a measurable effect on reducing violent crimes)... then yes, you can blame the Mayor.
And for a Mayor that loves photo opps... I rarely see him in front of the podium stumping for solutions to the murder epidemic sweeping the city. John Peyton sure as hell did.
Quote from: -jerrycornwell on January 27, 2015, 03:17:59 PM
Quote from: Tacachale on January 27, 2015, 10:31:22 AM
^Rather than speak in hypotheticals, I'll say this. It's hard to get worse than what we've got right now. Under Alvin Brown's leadership, we have a city that can't fund basic services, that can't control its crime rate, that can't manage its own budget, and that has punted on every major issue from the HRO to the port to the pension fiasco. Until we fix the basic functions of the city government, the rest of it doesn't matter.
While I'll say I see the city is in a bit better shape than you do, you bring a decisive point up in your conclusion of "fixing the basic functions of (our) city government. Unlike the federal government, Jax's executive branch is made up of many ELECTED executives, the sheriffs office for example. When you complain of the crime rate (and you are right) how does the elected sheriff escape blame and then passed directly to the mayor? No coincidence Sheriff Rutherford is term limted, he has no political liabilities to pay. Concerning fiscal issues, Ive seen the Mayor do some pretty good things, particularly the re finacing of many municipal instruments that netted the city millions of dollars. And, to my personal experience, my property taxes did stay the same.
Actually, if you live in Jax your property taxes taxes did go up (http://jacksonville.com/news/metro/2013-09-25/story/council-approves-hike-property-tax-rates), despite Alvin Brown saying they wouldn't. The difference is that the City Council had to take over the budget (normally the Mayor's duty) because the Mayor's budget was so incompetent. If taxes hadn't gone up, we'd have seen even more service cuts, lost more cops, and closed libraries and amenities. In other words, Brown
saying he supports lower taxes didn't actually result in lower taxes, though he doesn't have to take responsibility for it.
On his competence at "fiscal issues", the news today is that the Council Finance Committee found $12 *million* dollars in unused funds (http://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/news/local/city-council-group-finds-12m-unused-taxpayer-dolla/njxdZ/) sitting in city accounts. All this while the Mayor's telling us we don't have the money to fix potholes, maintain our parks, and rehire police.
Quote from: -jerrycornwell on January 27, 2015, 03:17:59 PM
The HRO legislation is essential for our future. The failure of its passage was the disaster of the past 4 years. But I hesitate to blame that on the Mayor as he has no involvement in its path towards passage. That key democratic coucilmen (legislaturers) voted against HRO. Brown has little/ no influence over these (democratic) councilmen. Tachale, you did point out that the Mayor does approve or veto city legislation. But could he use that power in any way for legislation that DOESNT pass?
The mayor certainly can and should take the lead in important debates on civic policy like the HRO that lead into votes. In this case, plenty of other people were there fighting for the HRO, meeting with council members, and trying to build a consensus while the mayor hid under his desk pretending he had no power.
As for using his power on legislation that hasn't passed, it's funny you mention that. Warren Jones (the sponsor of the HRO bill) told the Times-Union (http://jacksonville.com/news/metro/2012-08-17/story/warren-jones-says-political-pressure-changed-human-rights-vote-suspects#ixzz23r83kaDo) that he thinks Alvin Brown made shady backroom deals with Council Members Johnny Gaffney to get him to flip on the HRO, which he previously supported. Brown denied it, but the fact is that something made Gaffney pull a Judas, and Alvin was scared to death of the bill hitting his desk (where he'd have to sign or veto it, that is,
be seen making a decision). So yeah, I'd say his position has plenty of power, he just picks... interesting times to use it.
Well, we are definitely in for an action packed (just under) two months of Jacksonville politics at its best.