In the U.S., says KPMG, car sharing companies like Zipcar, on-demand car services like Uber, and even bike-share will eat away at the percentage of households owning multiple vehicles, especially in major cities. Today, 57 percent of American households have two or more vehicles. KPMG's Gary Silberg told CNBC that the share of two-car households could decrease to 43 percent by 2040.
In this scenario, KPMG predicts that the rise of "mobility services" will displace car ownership by providing similar mobility but without the fixed costs. The typical new car now costs $31,000 but sits idle 95 percent of the time. Given other options, Silberg told CNBC, many Americans will be happy to avoid that burden.
(http://usa.streetsblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Screen-Shot-2014-12-01-at-4.35.02-PM.png)
http://usa.streetsblog.org/2014/12/02/auto-industry-analyst-predicts-decline-of-the-two-car-household/
To be fair, this prediction is through 2040. I'm not sure anyone in the transportation planning industry has actually disagreed with the idea of a steady decline in car ownership. Statistical data showing a lesser reliance on the automobile has been present for well over a decade now. Anyway, if you can find them, I'd love to see some of the quotes from 8 years ago.
Quote from: thelakelander on December 03, 2014, 10:02:50 AM
To be fair, this prediction is through 2040. I'm not sure anyone in the transportation planning industry has actually disagreed with the idea of a steady decline in car ownership. Statistical data showing a lesser reliance on the automobile has been present for well over a decade now. Anyway, if you can find them, I'd love to see some of the quotes from 8 years ago.
Funny how this is the FDOT when it comes to expanding interstates then.
(http://i.imgur.com/0zHQzzW.jpg?1)
FDOT's response appears to be the inclusion of managed toll lanes, since gas tax revenue for new road construction is declining. Not the best solution for urbanist but it is a response to changing demographics. In more urbanized areas of Florida, lane reduction and multimodal projects appear to be picking up steam. Examples of this would include Sunrail in Orlando, FDOT giving up Brickell Avenue to the City of Miami, and the Suncoast Parkway's linear shard use path in the Tampa Bay region.
I particularly love predictions out to 2040, particularly since significant decline doesnt start until 2025. Close enough in the future so it doesn't sound like science fiction, but far enough out so that when that date rolls around no one will remember it.
Quote from: civil42806 on December 03, 2014, 12:09:11 PM
I particularly love predictions out to 2040, particularly since significant decline doesnt start until 2025. Close enough in the future so it doesn't sound like science fiction, but far enough out so that when that date rolls around no one will remember it.
Kind of like the predictions of Social Security going broke 75 years hence.
maybe the decline automobiles will be due to the availability of personal flying transports that we should be enjoying right now due to a prediction from 40+ years ago.
Quote from: thelakelander on December 03, 2014, 10:02:50 AM
To be fair, this prediction is through 2040. I'm not sure anyone in the transportation planning industry has actually disagreed with the idea of a steady decline in car ownership. Statistical data showing a lesser reliance on the automobile has been present for well over a decade now. Anyway, if you can find them, I'd love to see some of the quotes from 8 years ago.
Furthermore, the country is still expected to grow to nearly 500 million people. So even if people drive fewer cars and less miles, the total # of cars and miles driven is still likely to increase.