http://livingoffdividends.com/2008/04/16/oil-break-115-per-barrel/
QuoteApril 16th, 2008 Living Off Dividends Posted in Canroys, Commodities, Global Economy, Oil and Gas |
Oil just broke through $115 per barrel today. While this may come as a shock to many , I’ve been preparing for it for the past 2 years. All the signs of an oil shortage have been visible in the media, but most people have either been ignoring it, been in denial or been too focused on what Paris Hilton or Brittany Spears have been up to!
China and India together have a third of the world’s 6.66 billion people. If 10% of these 2.2 Billion people start buying cars, that’s 220 million new cars on the planet ready to start guzzling more gasoline. I think thats the current number of cars in the US, so effectively the demand on oil is set to double over the next few years. And along with Tata Motors new $2,500 car, you can be sure that eventually atleast 20% or more of India’s and China’s population will be driving cars instead of cycles or mopeds that give 247 miles/gallon. That 247 number is not an exaggeration. Owners of Suburbans should refrain from crying right now.
Based on the growing prosperity in just these two countries, the demand for the world’s resources is growing at a furious pace. Unfortunately, oil is a key component of prosperity and the global supply of it is somewhat stagnant. Despite a few new oil fields being found here and there, new reserves are not keeping up with the depletion. According to one report, all the oil in Alaska would last the US for only 6 months.
If you think that gas prices are high at over $3.50 per gallon (I just paid $3.95 for mid-grade for my wife’s Acura TSX), wait until summer. There are reports that the refineries are absorbing the cost of high oil prices right now (and some of them have hedging contracts in place to mitigate this high price), but within a few months they’ll be passing this burden on to the consumers. Oil prices at the pump could very well hit $5 and if this trend continues, it could hit $8/gallon.
In the UK, petrol (that’s what the rest of the world calls gas) costs about 1 pound per litre, which equates to $7.50-8.00 per gallon. Now you Suburban owners can cry now if you like. Or you can start investing in oil related investments like Canroys and oil drilling programs.
Time to buy a bike is more like it.
stephendare: I told you 130 was the new 120. Charge that electric bike you have come on dude. Look, I know you have a Chevy Sprite. I've been rolling wth you for years is it a 2 or 3 cylendar, plus I've NEVER seen you put gas in that thing. What does it get 40, 50 MPG? LOL
no, there will not be $8 gas within a year. $4.25/gallon by December? sure...but no $8 gas (european prices) within 12 months.
Driven: Deisel is $4.96 already in Austin.
diesel is not gasoline. and diesel (which sometimes trends LOWER than gas and gets its pricing mechanisms slightly differently) won't be $8 within 12 months either.
Gee, where is that Cookie-Monster now?
Trolleys/transit/rail/skyway anyone?
Ocklawaha
Hey Ocklawaha, Red Line is testing a lot. I've been trying to get the illusive picture and I almost got it but it was just moving to quickly. :)
Quote from: stephendare on May 07, 2008, 10:55:27 PM
Quote from: Driven1 on April 21, 2008, 08:52:18 PM
my prognostications on commodities...
I would say Oil is due for a major correction...at least back down to $95/barrel levels (a 20% decrease). I could also agree with platinum, nickel and zinc. Corn - nope...not until the biofuel policy goes achanging. Wheat - nope...not until the food riots stop and the biofuel (see corn) policies change. I would 100% completely agree with the natural gass boom going to continue...though, I doubt that their is as much money to be made in LNG. Fertilizers - nope - gonna continue through 2008 at least.
Btw...I have found to look more to Barrons than Kiplingers for the best info. IMO, Kiplingers is kind of like "Money" magazine or "SmartMoney" - just a tad better.
Damn!! that boy can write!! :) i'm going to go chuckle now and then go to sleep.
indeedie. i stand by every word. of course, i can't be right about everything like SOME PEOPLE. :) but, still...feeling pretty confident on these relatively insignificant items.
QuoteWall Street predictions are wrong about half the time, so take them all with a grain of salt.
exactly.
Quote from: downtownparks on May 07, 2008, 10:04:40 PM
Time to buy a bike is more like it.
Last night I saw someone on a bike getting free 'power' by holding one hand onto a truck as it rode down the street. Pretty smart, get there just as fast as an auto, with no gas expense.
Quote from: Driven1 on May 08, 2008, 01:42:21 PM
indeedie. i stand by every word. of course, i can't be right about everything like SOME PEOPLE. :) but, still...feeling pretty confident on these relatively insignificant items.
hmmm...the dummy "experts" seem to be siding with me stephendare...this is from today's WSJ...now, how much the opinion of "experts" is worth, we are all left to ponder, but i dare say slightly weighter than yours.
the ability to look past the present day's news & the "financial pornography" of CNBC (not all of it is, but most of it) and see the larger picture is valuable.
RiversideGator...take note of what economists think are driving inflation...it is not the "investors".
Quote
Bubble Isn't Big Factor in Inflation
Economists Blame
Food, Fuel Run-Ups
On Fundamentals
By PHIL IZZO
May 9, 2008; Page A2
The global surge in food and energy prices is being driven primarily by fundamental market conditions, rather than an investment bubble, say the majority of economists in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey.
Fifty-one percent of the respondents said demand from China and India was the prime factor in soaring energy prices, and 41% said the demand was the chief contributor to rising food costs. Constraint in supply was cited second most often; 20% blamed supply problems for higher food prices, and 15% for increasing energy prices.
"It's a combination of demand and supply issues," said Joseph Carson of AllianceBernstein LP.
Although most of the analysts attributed the food and energy costs to fundamental trends, 11% of the economists see a potential bubble driven by speculation. "Commodity markets have become a strange safe haven, with prices well out of line with underlying market fundamentals," said Diane Swonk of Mesirow Financial Holdings Inc. "I am dumbfounded that a report like [the May 2] employment report triggered a rally in oil prices. ... Just plain ridiculous."
The Labor Department's report showed a slight drop in the unemployment rate to 5%, and a smaller-than-expected decline of 20,000 in payrolls. Crude prices rose 3.4%.
(http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/NA-AQ370_survey_20080508190422.gif)
Economists still see tepid growth this year, but things may have stabilized a bit, according to the results of the latest Wall Street Journal Economist Survey.
The survey, conducted May 2-6, showed that the 53 respondents, on average, expect the price of crude to fall to about $105 by the end of next month and to about $93 by the end of the year. (Crude settled at $123.69 Thursday on the New York Mercantile Exchange.) Their expectations for overall inflation continue to rise. They expect the consumer-price index, which rose 4% year-to-year in March, to increase 3.6% in June from a year earlier.
Gasoline prices are expected to stay high -- an average price of $3.45 a gallon over the next 12 months. The average price was $3.46 a gallon last month.
Despite concerns about rising prices, the majority of respondents -- 60% -- said the Federal Reserve is showing enough concern about inflation, and that its focus on the risks to growth is the right priority. The Fed has cut its key interest rate by 3.25 percentage points since last fall but recently signaled that it intends to pause.
"Worry about inflation after we're sure this isn't a depression," said David Wyss of Standard & Poor's Corp. Thirty-six percent of the economists think the credit crisis is over or mostly over, while 62% say it is about half-finished.
However, a sizable minority -- 40% -- said the Fed isn't concerned enough about inflation. Some of the analysts aren't convinced that a slowdown will tame inflation. "The U.S. isn't nearly as big a part of demand for oil and food as it was years ago," said Allen Sinai of Decision Economics Inc. "We'd need to see a global downturn to tame inflation."
On average, the economists expect the Fed's federal-funds rate, the rate at which banks lend one another money overnight, to remain at 2% for the rest of this year.
Write to Phil Izzo at philip.izzo@wsj.com
Quote from: vicupstate on May 09, 2008, 08:02:31 AM
Quote from: downtownparks on May 07, 2008, 10:04:40 PM
Time to buy a bike is more like it.
Last night I saw someone on a bike getting free 'power' by holding one hand onto a truck as it rode down the street. Pretty smart, get there just as fast as an auto, with no gas expense.
ZERO EMISSION NO NOISE
ZENN
enlightened mobility(C)
www.ZENNCars.com
Seems the French offer a 2 cyl. deisel 55 mph version of this Electric go mobile; however, in the US, they're restricted to NEVs. BUT, and here's the kicker, there's an "after market chip" that brings that puppy upto 45MPH and you never need a drop of gas even. Expect 27 miles w/full charge.
(http://thefraserdomain.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/05/01/zennsunroof_2007.jpg)
WSJ had article last weekend that says all major car producers are working on vehicles that will run the first 30-40 miles on electricity and then kick in the gas engine... up to 70mph. should be on the market within 4-5 years. electric utility companies are happy/sad about it...don't know if it will make them money. it will if they cars are charged at night (when electricity trades at its cheapest).
I'd love a 2 cylinder turbodiesel. What would it look like? Looks like this:
(http://www.houstoncars.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/loremo-thumb.jpg)
Low resistance mobile - that’s what Loremo stands for. And that is precisely what it is - the Loremo was designed with only one thing in mind - the lowest possible coefficient of drag, and thus the highest possibly efficiency. By cutting drag everywhere possible ( including the doors - there are none! ), the Loremo managed to get fuel efficiency up to 150 miles per gallon. Under the hood is a tiny 2 cylinder turbodiesel - no fancy hybrid parts here. The target price for European production ( the designer is a German company ) is just 15,000 Euros, or about $22,000 at today’s exchange rate.
It has no doors but 150 MPG.
(http://www.houstoncars.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/loremo-1.jpg)
OMG. Tata just unveiled 1-Lakh Car. This my friends is coming to America and I want one too.
(http://images.paultan.org/images/Tata_Nano.jpg)
I heard the Nano wont pass US saftey standards as it is now. I inquired about them, but got the response "we are currently not available in your country, but we are working hard to make these available to america"
Up against a 6700 LBS Hummer at 70 MPH, no. (Hello death Wish 2008.) But, for running around the hood < 45 Why not?
Have you seen the crash studies on the smart car, pretty good actually for a small car, but many changes to the structure of the car had to be changed to pass saftey standards, including a Nascar Style Roll cage, Which made the car heavier and lowered gas mileage (35-41 mpg) I suspect the Nano will have to go through the same process.
The ZENN Electric doesn't come with airbags. You really wouldn't need them since as a NEV you wouldn't be going faster then say 25. So, imagine, pulling your Zenn out of the carport and off to the Park and Ride where you catch the LRT to the TOD. Who can argue that's not the way to go? For me, I live at a TOD, so I just walk down stairs. I can also walk or ride the bike to work, since IBM is just next door, but I do take the Rover. Oh, and how many miles have I put on my car? 15 in the past 2 weeks. It's .25 to work and I take the bus whenever I go to movies, or downtown to get me drunk on. ;D
For me I really wouldn't see the milage decrease in the Smartcar for the most part if I continue my driving habits. I put $15 in gas in 2 weeks. That's $30 a month in gas. What's your monthly gas bill. See, I don't support terror but that's just me, that the way I roll. :P
Oil crosses $129 for first time, heads for $130 - 50 minutes ago
$200 oil = $5.80 gas
according to one unknown estimate...
My work is .5 miles from home. So, that's about 5 miles per week and at 12.5 MPG that's .5 gallons of gas a week for me..this is getting crazy, I'll be shelling out about $2.80 a week to get to and from work...we need to do something about this...where's that federal fuel tax cut McCain et. al, have been talking about. That will what? Save me 14 cents a week. :o
I walk to work, but my wife drives my Callahan to San Jose blvd everyday
Prices keep going up I might have to start walking to work too. How far is your work adamh0903?
about 100 feet. ;D I am really lucky. I am a Retail Network/POS Technician with my inlaws business as well as own my own business in the same field.
Not time to buy a hybrid; time to ditch the suburbs.
time to buy a scooter. better yet, a bike.
ps - gas will not be $8 within a year. not in the U.S. at least.
I'm so glad that through the hard work, sacrifice, and great risk of two families my kids won't have to join the "share the misery" generation about to unveil. I'm thinking about setting them up in the scooter, bicycle, and maybe the rickshaw business and having them invest longterm in coal to be ready when the people finally have had enough. I haven't decided on a Navigator or an Escalade for their college graduation gifts but I'm going to install those train horns on the vehicles so they can make sure not to run over the walkers, multiple scooter and bicycle riders, and people standing in long lines at the mass transit sites because the system has been down from roaming brownouts after the windmills recorded their limit on bird kills, it's been cloudy and rainy for a number of days in a row, and Captain Planet just took down the last, evil, greedy capitalist run fossil fuel power plant. It's gonna be a hell of a sad era.
which two families?
I can't say!! Carmine and Gino tell me I've said too much already!!!!!!!! ;) ;) ;) :D
Fiat is looking at this car. The car would be another great car to bring to the US market.
(http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/nm/20080521/2008_05_20t213904_450x278_us_fiat.jpg?x=400&y=246&sig=3XoTiicyn9c0xqZA0gBUKQ--)
TURIN, Italy (Reuters) - Italy's Fiat (FIA.MI) is thinking about creating a new brand for a low-cost car it is developing, according to its chief executive.
ADVERTISEMENT
"The next brand is going to be one that we develop ourselves," Sergio Marchionne told an automotive congress held in Turin, an industrial city in northwestern Italy.
In light of the success enjoyed by France's Renault (RENA.PA) with its Logan and the global media attention won by India's Tata Motors Ltd (TAMO.BO) for its upcoming Nano, Fiat and other manufacturers are working on their own cheap cars.
"The market has the space for what I consider a true value-for-money car," he said.
Marchionne said Tata, Fiat's Indian partner, could have a role in the creation of the new brand.
Fiat would take a decision in the next 12 months, he added.
ALFA IN AMERICA
Marchionne reiterated his intention to make Alfa Romeo cars in North America, though he had yet to decide where and when.
Fiat has sold its limited edition 8C Competizione car to U.S. customers but it has yet to return to the country with a full product range. It also has a presence through luxury sports car brands Ferrari and Maserati.
Marchionne expressed a strong desire to bring the updated version of Fiat's small Cinquecento (500) car to the United States, saying he was convinced it would be as much of a hit as it had been in Europe since its launch last July.
"It could probably carry the market," he said.
Ever since Fiat announced plans to bring Alfa Romeo back to North America, it has been approached by a number of parties offering their manufacturing facilities.
In tandem with the congress, representatives of the U.S. states of Kentucky and Georgia have spoken to Fiat about the possibility, according to sources close to the company.
The premier of Ontario is to pay Marchionne a visit on Wednesday to try to convince him to make Alfa Romeos at the Canadian province's under-utilized plants.
Marchionne said Mexico was a possible candidate because it would be a natural extension of Fiat's presence in Latin America, especially in Brazil where it dominates the market.
He also raised the possibility of working out of two manufacturing sites.
One issue Fiat had to address was the distribution network, he said.
"If we started with 100 dealers, I'd be happy," he said. "I don't think we need more than that.
"If we find an agreement with an auto maker that will allow for manufacturing and distribution wrapped together, we would do it," he added.
Fiat would not use the sales network of CNH (CNH.N) because its U.S. farming equipment subsidiary served a different market. Marchionne said Fiat had neglected Russia and was refocusing its attention on a country whose car market will soon become Europe's biggest.
"We will be active there in the next five years in all activities of the group," he said. Apart from cars and tractors, Fiat makes trucks under the Iveco brand.
(Reporting by Gilles Castonguay; Editing by Braden Reddall)
I love Alfas. I love Italian design. Pininfarina is one sexy design team. Now here's a car. Not your father's supercar.
(http://www.speedace.info/automotive_directory/car_images/pininfarina_maserati_birdcage_concept_car_2005.jpg)
Pininfarina Birdcage 2005
Turin, June 23 2005. The Maserati Birdcage 75th, the prototype which commemorates the 75th anniversary of Pininfarina, is to take part in the Supercar Run to be held during the Goodwood Festival of Speed scheduled for June 24 to 26.
Based on Maserati tradition and cutting edge mechanical technology, and created in collaboration with Motorola, the Maserati Birdcage 75th won the “Best Concept†award in the Editors’ Choice Awards at the 2005 Geneva Motor Show, where it made its debut, and made it onto the list of the 10 “coolest concept cars†of 2005 drawn up by Forbes.
Other cars taking part in the Goodwood Festival include the Alfa Romeo Brera, a 2+2 coupé developed in collaboration with Italdesign-Giugiaro and set to be produced by Pininfarina from the second half of 2005.
(http://www.speedace.info/automotive_directory/car_images/maserati_birdcage_fink_floyd_goodwood.jpg)
Pink Floyd drummer Nick Mason, Maserati Birdcage 75th Goodwood Festival of Speed
I doubt any Ferrari is green, but not that many are sold each year. This puppy is Italy's green car:
(http://i.treehugger.com/files/TH_pininfarinamain_050705.jpg)
If you're a interested in conserving gas (and with today's prices, who isn't), you probably know that the most effective way to do it is reduce the size of your car. Smaller cars mean smaller, more efficient engines, and lighter, less energy-hungry chassis. But as more and more SUV's and other large cars populate the roads, driving in a small car can make you feel like some tiny rodent in a predator-prey relationship: In a side impact verses an H2, the little guy is going to lose. That is, unless a certain Italian car company has its way...
PininFarina, the mastermind behind concept cars for manufacturers from Ferrari to Honda has formulated a bold new concept to bring real-world impact safety to smaller vehicles.
The Nido concept car isolates it's passenger and driver inside a rigid welded safety cage for roll and crush-resistance. But injuries from the force of impact are still a problem, so the passenger compartment is suspended within the cage by a series of crushable aluminum honeycomb panels. When struck by another car, these panels crumple one after another, bringing the passengers to a smoother stop than a rigid car body would, and avoiding whiplash, organ bruising, and brain injuries like concussions.
While this technology is still in the limited prototype phase, it holds promise for keeping small cars from being completely run off the road by larger competitors. Hopefully we'll see more of this in the future.
Quote from: Ocklawaha on May 07, 2008, 10:56:59 PM
Gee, where is that Cookie-Monster now?
Trolleys/transit/rail/skyway anyone?
Ocklawaha
HA ha ha ha!!! Ock your new name is Noah. The creator of the "Ark on Rail"
Stephendare 8 dollars a gallon?? Man that would hurt!! really That would so hurt.
What are your ideas to avoid buying gas to get around??
Sometimes I think of sleeping in my car till the next day/shift lol just to avoid the long drive from home.
Question for Lake....When will the
Mulitiple TODs & Electric Automobiles become the norm instead of just concepts and ideas? Whats your opinion on that?
I try Googling this info but I never find hard answers. Everything just seems to be coming out in the future. Well how long do we have to wait?
Has anyone seen the movie "Who Killed the Electric Car"?
Quote from: Matt on May 20, 2008, 05:34:52 PM
Not time to buy a hybrid; time to ditch the suburbs.
Tell me about it!! If only it was so easy......
Quote from: Coolyfett on May 21, 2008, 12:22:58 AM
Quote from: Ocklawaha on May 07, 2008, 10:56:59 PM
Gee, where is that Cookie-Monster now?
Trolleys/transit/rail/skyway anyone?
Ocklawaha
HA ha ha ha!!! Ock your new name is Noah. The creator of the "Ark on Rail"
Stephendare 8 dollars a gallon?? Man that would hurt!! really That would so hurt.
What are your ideas to avoid buying gas to get around??
Sometimes I think of sleeping in my car till the next day/shift lol just to avoid the long drive from home.
Question for Lake....When will the Mulitiple TODs & Electric Automobiles become the norm instead of just concepts and ideas? Whats your opinion on that?
I try Googling this info but I never find hard answers. Everything just seems to be coming out in the future. Well how long do we have to wait?
Has anyone seen the movie "Who Killed the Electric Car"?
as of one hour ago...
Honda to sell new gas-electric hybrid next year
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=AP&date=20080520&id=8673646
Hahaha..I live in 5 Points and save a lot of gas driving downtown. Problem is driving to the southside where a lot of my business is.
This thing looks huge and damn, I can't wait like you said Ocklawaha.
(http://4wheelsblog.com/wp-content/articole/october/concepts/honda/puyo/honda_puyo_concept.jpg)
(http://4wheelsblog.com/wp-content/articole/october/concepts/honda/puyo/honda_puyo_concept_2.jpg)
Two concept models will make their world premiere at the motor show. The CR-Z is a next-generation lightweight sports car equipped with Honda’s original gas-electric hybrid system which achieves both clean performance and a high level of torque. The PUYO is a fuel cell vehicle which was designed based on out-of-box thinking to provide fun for both the vehicle owner and people around them as well. Also on display will be a model of the i-DTEC next-generation diesel engine, first announced in September at the Frankfurt Motor Show, which delivers both outstanding environmental performance and engine performance characteristics.
Moreover, the all-new Fit, which will go on sale in Japan in late October, will be on display. Since it was first introduced in 2001, the Fit has been widely acclaimed for its style, functionality, and outstanding fuel economy, with worldwide sales topping two million units. The all-new Inspire equipped with a new Variable Cylinder Management system, scheduled to go on sale in Japan later this year, will also be on display. Honda will exhibit a total of 18 vehicles representing 11 different models, including vehicles already on the market, those soon to be introduced, and future concept models.
In addition, a “Next Energy†display will showcase Honda’s latest initiatives in new energy development, including technology for producing bio-ethanol from rice straw and the environmentally responsible next-generation thin-film solar cells, which will go on sale nationwide in Japan. Moreover, Honda’s F1 and other racing machines that symbolize the challenge to realize new dreams and other advanced environmental technologies that enable people to enjoy mobility into the future will also be on display. Through these exhibits, Honda will propose a new direction for the future of mobility PUYO
‘PUYO’ is a Japanese onomatopoeia that expresses the sensation of touching the vehicle’s soft body. It is meant to convey a warm, friendly impression.
The PUYO represents a new idea in mobility that brings together ‘clean’, ’safe’ and ‘fun’ functionality in an environmentally responsible, people-friendly minimalist design featuring an ultra-high efficiency, small frame and fuel cell technology to please both users and onlookers alike.
Exterior design
The development theme for the PUYO exterior was to create a cornerless, ‘Seamless Soft Box’ form that is kind to both people and the environment. The goal was to create a personable design with the feel of an adorable pet, while taking advantage of the maximum spaciousness of the box-shaped design. The PUYO’s ‘gel body’ features soft materials to promote greater real-world safety. Moreover, the body has been made luminescent to guide people into the proper operating position and notify them of the vehicle’s condition, facilitating a more intimate relationship between people and their cars.
(http://4wheelsblog.com/wp-content/articole/october/concepts/honda/puyo/honda_puyo_concept_12.jpg)
Interior design
Developed to have a ‘Silky Feel’, the PUYO’s interior is designed to provide a refreshing, people-friendly space imbued with a feeling of transparency. Features such as an instrument panel monitor, controls that take advantage of the elastic qualities of cloth to rise up when the vehicle starts up, luminous fluid meter displays, and a joystick for intuitive operation are all designed to gently support occupants’ senses and sensibilities.
(http://4wheelsblog.com/wp-content/articole/october/concepts/honda/puyo/honda_puyo_concept_13.jpg)
Check out the Aptera, developed by off-duty robotics engineer Steve Fambro in his spare time. Currently in working prototype form, it'll be available as both an all-electric vehicle that'll run 120 miles on a charge, and a gas-electric hybrid that gets 300 mpg. A solar roof strip provides auxiliary charge to the battery and air-conditioning system, it seats two comfortably in its cockpit, and it'll supposedly be able to keep up with highway traffic. The Aptera is also designed to be abnormally safe for a low-slung three-wheeler, with an F1-inspired safety cage, 45-inch front crush zone, and wide, stable stance. The really incredible thing is that the Aptera is reported to be available later this yearâ€"at a retail price of $30K. Read more at msn.
(http://memimage.cardomain.com/member_images/8/web/2900000-2900999/2900475_375_full.jpg)
i would blow past that thing on my scooter... :) 80 mpg and comfortably at 52mph or so.
You would in the ambulance on your way to the hospital after you are thrown off your scooter when you collided into this, I would be shaken but that’s about it since I'm inside the F1 styled rollage.
i didn't say i would "collide into this thing"...i said i would blow past it on my scoot.
heck, i would blow past that thing going downhill on my road bike on a good day. :)
from today's Wall St Journal...
Quote
Born to Be ... Fuel-Efficient
(http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/PJ-AM422A_SCOOT_20080520184114.gif)
Chris Casal, a Brooklyn, N.Y., elementary-school teacher, used to drive to work almost every day, mainly because it took 12 minutes compared with an hour by subway. But rising fuel and parking costs made the trip "kind of ridiculous," he says.
So last year he bought a Vespa GTS scooter that uses about $7 of fuel every two weeks instead of the $30 his Honda Civic consumed. He parks free in the schoolyard, and the two-wheeler impresses his students. The kids also like "the odd factor," he says. "I'm a six-foot-one-inch, 255-pound guy on a little Italian scooter."
You know drivers are feeling the pinch of pricey gas when big guys, even pickup-driving contractors, start trading four wheels for two. But it is happening more often as gasoline drifts toward -- and, in some places, beyond -- $4 a gallon. Sales of motor scooters, which are like a cross between a small motorcycle and a lightweight moped, have soared this year. After years of trying unsuccessfully to sell them based on their cool factor, retro styling and matching clothing and accessories, scooter makers are finding the vehicles' practicality is more of a draw.
As the market for trucks, cars and motorcycles sagged, first-quarter scooter sales were up 25% from a year earlier, according to the Motorcycle Industry Council, a trade group. Manufacturers attribute the growth in part to sustained high fuel prices. Models like the $4,200 retro Vespa S, which recently began arriving in showrooms, can travel 80 miles on a gallon of fuel. Others, like the $2,000 ultra-utilitarian Yamaha C3, tout fuel economy of around 100 miles per gallon. Most models also have automatic transmissions and cargo compartments big enough for a briefcase or gym bag, or sometimes both.
Of course, scooters have drawbacks, including dicey handling on potholed city streets, the need for a motorcycle license in most states, a lack of rider protection in bad weather, parking restrictions in many cities and vulnerability to larger vehicles.
Such disadvantages kept many people from riding scooters when fuel was cheap. But now that driving a car has become prohibitively expensive in some cases, more people are using scooters not just for fun and short errands, but even for commutes that can run more than an hour each way.
Low-priced models, like the Yamaha Vino Classic, can be had for about $1,950. More upscale brands, like Vespas, cost from $3,300 for the small, 50-cubic-centimeter LX, to $6,000 for the bigger, faster, 250-cubic-centimeter GTS. Larger scooters -- like the Honda Silver Wing with antilock brakes and the Suzuki Burgman 650 from Suzuki Motor Corp. -- cost between $8,000 and $9,000.
Industry analysts and scooter makers also attribute the sales jump to the growing variety of scooters, including larger models like the Yamaha Majesty and the Piaggio MP3 500, made by the same manufacturer as the Vespa. Bigger, more powerful scooters get around 50 mpg, but are more comfortable than their less-thirsty cousins for long trips and commutes at highway speeds.
Nearly all scooters have low-slung frames with "step-through" designs that make getting on and off easier for riders in work clothes. To make scooters more appealing to the bigger-is-better set, manufacturers have added beefier models with more storage space and a smoother ride for long commutes.
Kevin Quinn, owner of an appliance-installation company in Valencia, Calif., says his Vespa GTS scooter has sufficient power for comfortable highway commuting, but says he takes the freeway only if he's in a hurry. "I usually take the twisties," he says, referring to winding back roads.
The scooter makes the trip to work a pleasure compared with the pickup he used to drive. "You see and hear a lot more on the scooter, and you tend to take the long way," he says. Still, the scooter is a money saver. He says he spends about $6 to top off the scooter's fuel tank daily, instead of $65 to $75 for the truck, which he now leaves at the office and uses only for traveling to job sites.
Riders say an obvious trade-off for saving fuel is their increased vulnerability when riding a 300-pound two-wheeler among tractor trailers and three-ton SUVs, especially on crowded interstates. "There's no 'Oops' on the freeway," Mr. Quinn says.
Indeed, trading in your sedan for a scooter can nearly double your risk. In 2005, the latest year with complete data, the death rate for scooter riders was 129 per million scooters registered, according to the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, a research group funded by the insurance industry. That compares with a rate of 78 for cars and light trucks. The rate is significantly higher for motorcycles, however: 645.
It costs about $300 per year on average to insure a scooter, compared with about $600 for a motorcycle and $1,400 for a car, says Kirk La, a vice president of underwriting with insurer Geico.
Scooters have to meet the same emissions standards as motorcycles. While the federal government tightened those standards in 2004, they are still not as stringent as the standards for cars. The Environmental Protection Agency says even the typical sport-utility vehicle is 95% cleaner than the typical motorcycle.
Parking can also be an issue for scooter riders. Rules vary widely among municipalities, as do levels of tolerance and sympathy from drivers and law-enforcement officials. San Francisco sets aside scooter- and motorcycle-only parking spaces, and scooters can cross the Golden Gate Bridge free of charge during rush hours. In March, Atlanta held Scooter Commuter Day as part of a broad program to encourage people to commute on scooters. The goal, city officials said, was to cut fuel consumption while easing Atlanta's notorious traffic congestion.
New York City has developed a reputation as particularly unfriendly to riders, who typically park between cars and hope their scooters won't get ticketed by police or knocked over by inattentive drivers. Many parking garages don't accept scooters and motorcycles, and some that do charge the same rate as for cars. A few, however, are experimenting with special spaces for scooters.
(http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/PJ-AM421A_pjSCO_20080520210828.jpg)
Early internal-combustion engines had barely developed when they began appearing on bicycles almost a century ago. Many of the contraptions were built in garages, but Cushman, a maker of small engines for farm machinery, began mass-producing scooters in the 1930s. The U.S. military used Cushmans in World War II; there was even a model for airborne soldiers, designed to be dropped by parachute.
Italian maker Piaggio & C. SpA began building the now-popular Vespa just after the war as inexpensive transportation for Italians struggling with postwar austerity. For the next few decades scooters grew popular throughout Europe and developed a following in the U.S. Toughened emissions standards caused Vespas to fade from the U.S. market by the early 1980s. Scooters that remained on the U.S. market, including models from Honda Motor Co. and Yamaha Motor Co., were popular among students and messengers and pizza-delivery riders. Only the current fuel crunch has resulted in a palpable influx of mainstream riders.
David Myer, owner of Vespa Thousand Oaks in Thousand Oaks, Calif., says he has noticed a change in his customers in the past several weeks. Instead of the usual affluent buyers looking for a new toy, recent shoppers have been looking for ways to cut their commuting costs. "Now they come in with a pen, paper and a calculator, and they want to hear the numbers," he says. "I tell them that if they are paying $100 to fill up their SUV, they can just take a zero off of that."
Lawyer Jonathan Perkel, who co-founded the New York Scooter Club in 2005, says club members rarely talked about fuel economy until about six months ago. Since then, it has become a dominant topic, and he has noticed a jump in visits to the club's Web site, www.nyscooterclub.com.
Some riders can even avoid the cost of a new ride. Nelson Soto of Perth Amboy, N.J., says rising gas prices this spring convinced him to pull his 1966 Vespa Spring 150 out of the shed and use it for the 20-mile ride to his information-technology job in Newark. "It's mostly economics," he says, noting that his weekly fuel bill fell to $7 from $60 for his Mercury Villager minivan.
But he also says he finally enjoys his commute. "On the scooter, you're not so isolated like you are in the car. You're out there, feeling everything."
Which scooter do you have? I might want an electric bike. I'd be blowing past you when the oil runs out in the nature.
QLink Pegasus
http://www.scootdawg.com/page28
LOL. I put amost $8.00 in the car today--7 and some change. That got me 2 gallons. I should be able to drive for a week. Am I the only one on the forum to be feeling this? Maybe I need a higher salary.
again stephendare...one can't know the value of having a longer-term perspective unless you actually have it. your take on the economy seems based on today's latest juicy headline.
oil will still correct before the end of the year. over 60% of economists recently surveyed feel the same as myself - i posted that article a few days back.
btw...LOVE the fertilizers and nat gas right now!!! go baby, go!!
gator - i filled up the scoot with $4.00 yesterday. loving it. :)
what are you talking about Stephendare??? we are talking about the price of gas, oil, commodities and state of the economy and you start ranting about your personal life??? CRAZY!!!
please try to stay on topic. i think we all could care less about your personal life.
d - Mark put the $7+ in today. See, we carpool. He takes the bus in, I pick him up at the bus stop and we drive the .25 miles to work. :P
gator - why don't yall just ride a bike??? a quarter mile!! or walk (when it's not hot)? do you do that sometimes?
Yup. I walked last week, and sometimes ride the bike. But since Mark takes the bus in now we both just ride together. We have a good time. It might be a little far for Mark to walk but not for me.
Quote from: Driven1 on May 21, 2008, 12:51:11 AM
Quote from: Coolyfett on May 21, 2008, 12:22:58 AM
Quote from: Ocklawaha on May 07, 2008, 10:56:59 PM
Gee, where is that Cookie-Monster now?
Trolleys/transit/rail/skyway anyone?
Ocklawaha
HA ha ha ha!!! Ock your new name is Noah. The creator of the "Ark on Rail"
Stephendare 8 dollars a gallon?? Man that would hurt!! really That would so hurt.
What are your ideas to avoid buying gas to get around??
Sometimes I think of sleeping in my car till the next day/shift lol just to avoid the long drive from home.
Question for Lake....When will the Mulitiple TODs & Electric Automobiles become the norm instead of just concepts and ideas? Whats your opinion on that?
I try Googling this info but I never find hard answers. Everything just seems to be coming out in the future. Well how long do we have to wait?
Has anyone seen the movie "Who Killed the Electric Car"?
as of one hour ago...
Honda to sell new gas-electric hybrid next year
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=AP&date=20080520&id=8673646
AWWWWW!!! Good stuff Driven. Thanks!! :D :D :D
I have no clue why there's such a long line at the gas pump today. Wonder if this was the lowest price in the area. Remember these:
(http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0bCRdoY3JA2e1/610x.jpg)
Quote from: Driven1 on May 07, 2008, 10:47:26 PM
no, there will not be $8 gas within a year. $4.25/gallon by December? sure...but no $8 gas (european prices) within 12 months.
average price still around $4.05/gallon. $4.25/gallon by December? sure...but no $8 gas (european prices) within 12 months.
Quote from: Driven1 on June 27, 2008, 11:25:36 PM
Quote from: Driven1 on May 07, 2008, 10:47:26 PM
no, there will not be $8 gas within a year. $4.25/gallon by December? sure...but no $8 gas (european prices) within 12 months.
average price still around $4.05/gallon. $4.25/gallon by December? sure...but no $8 gas (european prices) within 12 months.
Blast from the past to just bump this thread up. Dangers of predicting the future
extremely dangerous!! caution!
and...we aren't there yet (and actually a big rally in oil today), but it looks like i was right - no $8 gas on the horizon! ;)
i've never been happier about the predictions being wrong.
Gas is below 2 bucks a gallon in some parts of the country
http://www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-127394
I will predict that this will be short lived though.
i'm with you on both accounts David...feels good to fill up and know that you just "saved" $20+ right?
Gas was $2.35 at I95 and CR 210 yesterday.
Ah yes. Another Stephen Dare sky-is-falling special. I hope no one invested in oil futures on the basis of these predictions. :D
The reality on October 30, 2008:
6 states now have gas prices back below $2 per gallon.
QuoteSixth State: Kansas Gas Prices Fall Below $2
Now Kansas, following Iowa, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Texas, and Missouri.
http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/10/sixth-state-kansas-gas-prices-fall.html
Quote from: stephendare on October 30, 2008, 03:54:39 PM
Its too bad that the availability of the oil (resulting in lower prices) is totally dependent on the fact that global economies crashed and cut the demand drastically.
So river, I would definitely enjoy the cheap gas.
Too bad that it is based on such massive failure.
but stephen - along with $8 gas, you have also (simultaneously) been predicting "massive failure". how did you know about the "massive failure" and miss the gas price prediction?
remember when the Dow hit 7900 and you said it was "destined" to hit 6,000 and flatten out? it's back up over 9,000 now. and gas is back to under $2 in some parts of the country. and GOLD!! gold is back down to about $700/oz (down 30%).
i will take your advice on waiting to snicker further my friend.
Quote from: civil42806 on October 29, 2008, 10:52:51 PM
Quote from: Driven1 on June 27, 2008, 11:25:36 PM
Quote from: Driven1 on May 07, 2008, 10:47:26 PM
no, there will not be $8 gas within a year. $4.25/gallon by December? sure...but no $8 gas (european prices) within 12 months.
average price still around $4.05/gallon. $4.25/gallon by December? sure...but no $8 gas (european prices) within 12 months.
Blast from the past to just bump this thread up. Dangers of predicting the future
Aww the digging up of the old topic game!! Yaaaaaaay let's play!
I still think that Hybrids and electric cars are the way to go. I figured a topic about the new gas prices would be created, but this will due.
I have not changed my driving habit at all. All of the sudden the gas is dropping before elections AGAIN...never seen that before!
Didn't the stock market just crash or something a few weeks ago? Sounds like the greedy are trying to get some of their money back.
Gas engines still pollute the air, mass transit is still very very important. Anyone that is pro mass transit should not change the agenda.
Gas Prices fall all of a sudden??? hmmmm I'm not biting. I'm swimming around that hook. My gas tank is full but I still using the MARTA....No joyriding for me.
Calm before storm.
Anyone involved with oil is scared of people moving to electric and hybrid cars so they cut prices to stop or slow down that movement,once electric cars hit streets in mass numbers things will get ugly for oil business.
Almost everyday around world there is introduction of some new kind of electric car,by 2011 we will have numerous models to choose from and by 2015 it will be common on roads,by 2020 electric and hybrid cars will be mainstreem.
That's BAD business for oil companies.
If $8.00 per gallon gas becomes the norm, I think it will be because of oil scarcity or an enormous cut in production; I really don't think that $8 per gallon gas will become the norm because of consumers flocking to other vehicles with alternative fuel sources/resources that will drive them, etc. If cars, vehicles, etc. start running on other energy sources, in my opinion this will lower the price of oil even more because of a severe cut in consumer consumption; the oil companies will lower those prices in the hope that this will drive those consumers who still operate oil fired vehicles to gas up and consume more, and also to lure consumers to purchase oil fired vehicles (if they are still available and are still an option) vice vehicles that run on alternative fuel sources.
Heights Unknown
As long as predictions and/or facts relative to a sluggish and destitute economy, along with extemely low consumer demand remain the norm, we will continue to see low gas prices. As soon as the economy improves and consumer demand and interest improves, gas prices will once again rise, hopefully not to the 3 or 4 dollar a gallon range; also keep in mind that natural disasters, catastrophies, wars, etc. will also cause gas prices to rise or skyrocket...so never say never or never on anything in these troubled and unpredictable times in which we live!
Heights Unknown
I didn't mean to slam anyone by resurrecting this thread, and wasn't meant as a slam against you Stephen. Just the problems with predicting the future , this is the second crash of gas prices that I've seen, last one was back in the 80's. The fact is a certain price of oil pricese is not sustainable. We have seen what that level is now. The question is what role did the oil prices play in the financial slowdown or did the financial slowdown cause the decreased demand in th oil. Somebody smarter than me will have to figure that out.
this drop in oil is only temporary. oil has limited downside through mid 2009 I think and dramatic upside.
back page of "Money & Investing" section of the WSJ is a little article about how the dramatic drop of oil is only for NEXT MONTH DELIVERY. there has only been a very small drop in delivery orders out more than 3 months. articled intimated that 2010 & 2011 may be banner years for oil prices.
On the contrary:
QuoteVeteran Energy Economist: Oil Headed for $20-25
Veteran energy economist Philip Verleger insists oil never should have gone much above $70 a barrel; that it did so only because of "a perfect storm" of U.S. policy mistakes, European economic developments and currency shifts; and that it could well end up back in the low $20s before the global economy gets back on its feet.
"I think it will go a good deal lower, particularly next spring [when oil markets are traditionally weakest]," Mr. Verleger said. "If this thing follows a natural cycle, I think we'll see something as low as $20 to $25."
~From yesterday's Globe and Mail, Canada's largest circulation national newspaper
MP: The last time oil was $25 per barrel (2003), gas was selling at about $1.50 per gallon. The last time oil was $20 (2001), gas was close to $1
http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/11/veteran-energy-economist-oil-headed-for.html
i disagree. read the article in WSJ today about forward-priced barrels of oil (beyond delivery date of next month). those prices haven't dropped much at all.
BUT...if this guy is right, i'm buying MORE of "DXO" in the spring. returns DOUBLE whatever brent crude does.
Quote from: RiversideGator on November 03, 2008, 11:30:44 PM
On the contrary:
QuoteVeteran Energy Economist: Oil Headed for $20-25
Veteran energy economist Philip Verleger insists oil never should have gone much above $70 a barrel; that it did so only because of "a perfect storm" of U.S. policy mistakes, European economic developments and currency shifts; and that it could well end up back in the low $20s before the global economy gets back on its feet.
"I think it will go a good deal lower, particularly next spring [when oil markets are traditionally weakest]," Mr. Verleger said. "If this thing follows a natural cycle, I think we'll see something as low as $20 to $25."
~From yesterday's Globe and Mail, Canada's largest circulation national newspaper
MP: The last time oil was $25 per barrel (2003), gas was selling at about $1.50 per gallon. The last time oil was $20 (2001), gas was close to $1
http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/11/veteran-energy-economist-oil-headed-for.html
Not a chance in the world that will happen
i'm with you Civil - it went up 10% today to $70/barrel. just one day's move, but I don't think we'll EVER see $25/barrel again.
Quote from: Driven1 on November 04, 2008, 10:06:43 PM
i'm with you Civil - it went up 10% today to $70/barrel. just one day's move, but I don't think we'll EVER see $25/barrel again.
Now that Obama has been elected, I will have to agree with you. Look for permanently higher gas prices in the near future.
Oil will hit 25 when electric cars become mainstreem and when US president cracks down on oil gang.
Quote from: Bostech on November 05, 2008, 05:03:41 AM
Oil will hit 25 when electric cars become mainstreem and when US president cracks down on oil gang.
that should be happening soon then, right Bos? now that we have a democratic president, there should be no war, equality in the land, no dependence on foreign "oil gangs", etc... right?
:D
Reality check here. Not sure that the President has much to do with oil prices. I always thought it was more about supply and demand. Demand is down 15% from last year. First decrease in history. Demand was also inflated by commodities trading and that bubble burst. A 15% drop in demand with all the new production out there (Supply)= low fuel prices.
Obama's impact may have an indirect impact on fuel prices though. Obama wants to increase alternative energy use which means more money subsidizing that = less oil demand = lower prices.
I tend to agree with the "veteran energy economist."
Another reality check: Obama will attack US supply by not allowing additional offshore and inshore drilling. He will also fail to significantly reduce demand in the US as his pie in the sky "solutions" are not really workable. Finally, Obama cannot control the world demand which will resume its increase after the downturn ends. Less supply and more demand equals higher prices.
I think that we can all agree that offshore drilling is a long term solution and has no impact on fuel prices today. The world is in a slowdown, demand is down everywhere. Obama has nothing to do with it. But we shall see.
I know everyone is talking about oil, but what about hybrids?
Anyone looked into the Chevy Volt? GM is really betting on this vehicle to help their huge decline in the auto industry. It's considered a series hybrid in which the gasoline engine only charges the battery after the initial charge has worn off. A charged battery is supposed to get around 40 miles.
It sounds interesting but it will have a higher price, probably over 40K.
I wish I didn't even need a car, but as we all know JTA is a joke and public transportation in Jax is horrible.
QuoteIt sounds interesting but it will have a higher price, probably over 40K.
Therein lies the problem... 90% of us will not be able to afford this type of vehicle.
Quote from: SunKing on November 07, 2008, 06:47:41 AM
I think that we can all agree that offshore drilling is a long term solution and has no impact on fuel prices today. The world is in a slowdown, demand is down everywhere. Obama has nothing to do with it. But we shall see.
No, we cannot all agree on this. Allowing offshore drilling going forward has an immediate effect on oil prices in the short run as the prices in the futures markets reflect expected future supplies and demand. Obama will not agree to what it takes to increase supply, demand will inevitably increase and thus prices will also increase.
$1.43 for gas. Oh my. I might just drive for the hell of it now.
Yea I just leave my car running 24/7 now. It's parked in the garage, so I mean.... why shut it off?
Is there something machanically wrong with the car like it wont start again if you do shut it off, or is the igniation switch broken, or you just want to leave it running? I mean, Im not judging. Truckers leave those big ole rigs running all night why shouldnt we leave our running.
Quote from: Bostech on November 05, 2008, 05:03:41 AM
Oil will hit 25 when electric cars become mainstream and when US president cracks down on oil gang.
There was an article in the paper today that was talking about Transit going up and auto driving still going down across the US, even after the gas price drops. The rag said that many of the US citizens are continuing with the trend to not drive and us trains and buses, Cities mentioned were, New York, Washington DC, Chicago, Philadelphia & Phoenix. Another thing that they pointed out was that none of the systems are making the money they spend to operate the system. Not even New York Subway. Makes some of the posters on this forum very very credible even though some are
always in doubt.
Someone mentioned demand for gas has dropped and at the time I was in doubt, well I think that person is actually right. People are getting away from driving, but I just don't see it locally here in GA, but hey you can't argue with numbers. If the people in NY, DC, Chi & Phi are following or creating the trend I would think it is Jax best interest to follow.
Is Jax following the trend or doing its own thing? What are JTAs numbers?
It just weirds me out how the price just suddenly dropped though.
How funny is it if gas companies start asking for a
bail out???
If that ever happened Id know we as a country are heading in the right direction.
Here is a 9 minute presentation on the Hydrogen powered car by Larry Burns. He is the VP for R&D at GM.
http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/reinventing_the_car.html
Quote from: Bostech on November 05, 2008, 05:03:41 AM
Oil will hit 25 when electric cars become mainstream and when US president cracks down on oil gang.
I just wanted to point out that the vast majority of oil production is done by foriegn governments (and usually totalitarian ones at that). Private corporations only account for a small minority of output - and US corporations are a smaller share still.
So unless you are advocating the assassination of the leaders of OPEC countries ... I'm not exactly sure how the US president can deal with "oil gang" as it were.
QuoteDriving continues to decline as gas prices drop
By JOAN LOWY, Associated Press Writer Joan Lowy, Associated Press Writer 1 hr 33 mins ago
WASHINGTON â€" Drivers clocked 9 billion fewer miles on the nation's roads in October even while gas prices were dropping, suggesting a downturn in driving that began a year ago is attributable to more than just energy costs.
Federal Highway Administration data released Friday show the number of miles driven dropped 3.5 percent in October compared with the same month a year ago. Between November 2007, when the driving decline began, and October, Americans drove 100 billion fewer miles. That's the largest continuous decline in driving the nation has experienced.
Gas prices averaged $3.15 a gallon in October, down from a high of $4.09 in July, according to the Energy Information Administration.
"The fact that the trend persists even as gas prices are dropping confirms that America's travel habits are fundamentally changing," Transportation Secretary Mary Peters said in a statement.
The data show the region it describes as the South Atlantic â€" a block of eight states and Washington, D.C. â€" experienced the biggest decline in October of any region, 5 percent fewer vehicle miles. Montana's 8.4 percent driving decline was the largest of any state, followed by Utah with 7.4 percent, and South Carolina with 6.7 percent.
The highway administration collects the driving data from more than 4,000 automatic traffic recorders operated around-the-clock by state highway agencies.
While driving declined, subways, buses, commuter rail and light-rail systems have reported record increases in ridership. Amtrak, the nation's intercity passenger railroad, said it carried the highest number of passengers and brought in the most revenue in fiscal 2008 in its 37-year history.
It's likely the economic crisis is an important factor in the driving decline, said David Goldberg, a spokesman for Transportation for America, a coalition of groups pressing for more alternatives to driving.
"We regularly see fewer trips being made in economic downturns," Goldberg said. "I think when we probe these numbers we'll find that a lot of people have figured out how to telework or how to go into the office fewer days. And having experienced that and made that work, I think they'll continue to save the money and the time and effort and reduce some of those trips."
Peters expressed concern that the decline in driving is widening a gap between federal gas tax revenues and the government's commitments to fund state and local highway repair and construction projects. Congress made an emergency infusion of $8 billion earlier this year from the general treasury to cover an expected shortfall in the fund.
"As driving decreases and vehicle fuel efficiency continues to improve, the long-term viability of the Highway Trust Fund grows weaker," Peters said.
Federal safety officials reported Thursday that auto fatalities dropped almost 10 percent in 2008 through October, a trend that is likely influenced by the driving decline.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081212/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/driving_less/print