Metro Jacksonville

Popular Mechanics ran a pretty brilliant think-ahead article in this month's issue.

Ock.  You are the transportation guy....what do you think?

I have to say, the last line of this is the one that makes sense to me.

http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/earth/4254048.html?series=53

Quote
Transportation's contribution to global warming has been well articulated. It’s responsible for 33 percent of United States emissions from fossil fuel combustionâ€"more if you count the life-cycle emissions from extracting fuel and manufacturing vehicles. Now, for the first time, the government is taking an in-depth look at the flip scenario: how global warming is affecting transportation.

   
Propel This! - Submit to Propeller.com
A report released today by the National Research Council, in collaboration with the Transportation Research Board, has a clear message for transportation professionals: Stop thinking of climate change as just a future problem, and start dealing with the realities of it today. According to the study, every mode of transport will be affectedâ€"and in fact many already have been.

"it’s now time to move from the debate on climate science to what we’re going to do about it," said Henry Schwartz, past president and chairman of Svedrup/Jacobs Civil Inc., and chair of the committee that wrote the report, in a press conference this morning. "Not in the sense of 'What kind of automobile are we going to drive?'" Global warming is already in motion, he says, and the real question is: "How are we going to address it, specifically for this critical part of our economy, the transportation system?”

Current infrastructure is built for typical weather and a reasonable range of extremes, but that’s not what we can expect for the future. The best available science indicates that we’re going to experience hotter days, higher seas, more intense storms and a warmer Arctic. These human induced changes may sometimes be amplified by natural climate fluctuations, creating extremes never before experienced in modern times.

Potentially the greatest impact for North America will be flooded coastal roads, railways, transit systems and runways caused by rising seas and exacerbated by storm surges and land subsidence. Several of the largest ports in the U.S., plus oil and gas operations, are located on the Gulf Coastâ€"the vulnerability of which has already been clearly demonstrated. But infrastructure on the East Coast, Pacific Northwest and parts of California will be affected, too.

Other impacts emphasized in the report include:

• Heat waves and very hot days could cause thermal expansion on bridge joints, the buckling of pavement and the deformation of railroad tracks. Increased temperatures could also upset aircraft lift-off load limits, particularly at high-altitude airports with insufficient runway lengths, resulting in flight cancellations or limits in payload.

• More intense snow and rain events could overload drainage systems, wash out roads, damage rail-bed support structures and cause mudslides. They could also increase delays at airports and affect the depth of shipping channels, as the patterns of silt deposit change.

• Less rain overall could increase drought, making infrastructure susceptible to wildfires and, subsequently, to mudslides. The visibility at airports in wildfire-prone areas would decrease. As water levels shift, river transportation routes would be impacted.

•Warmer temperatures in the Arctic could thaw permafrost, causing subsidence of roads, rail beds, bridge supports and pipelines. Thawing permafrost under a number of commercial airports and airstrips could undermine runway foundations. Already, the season for the use of temporary ice roads has been shortened.

Of course, not all effects are negative: For example, fewer cold days mean less time and money will have to be spent on road salt and on de-icing planes (but they could also mean more freeze-thaw conditions, creating frost heaves and potholes). And marine transportation will benefit from less ice fog, fewer ice jams, longer shipping seasons and an open Northwest Passage. (Companies in the Great Lakes won’t be so lucky, as lower water levels mean ships won’t be able to carry as much cargo, resulting in increased shipping costs.)

"It’s fair to say that transportation professionals have not viewed global warming as an area of great significance to themâ€"I think, incorrectly so," Schwartz said. "The extremes and the surprises that may come as a result are going to impact them more than they heretofore have taken into account.”

So what’s a flummoxed transportation professional to do? Well, throw out the past several decades worth of climate data that shaped current operations, for one. (Or at least stop relying on it.) With warming already in the pipeline from past carbon dioxide emissions, new parameters are a given: Future investments, the study suggests, must be made based on scientists’ best available projections for regional climates.

That means rethinking standards for design elements: For example, increase drainage capacity to accommodate storm surges; tie bridge decks more securely to the substructure to weather hurricanes; use more continuous welded rail lines to prevent heat deformities; and elevate bridges, streets and rail lines to adapt for changes in sea levels. Long-term, engineers should work toward developing heat-resistant materials and shallow-bottom vessels.

In the near term, taking inventory of America’s most vulnerable infrastructure will be key. By outfitting it with technology to monitor its condition, as well as shifts in regional climate, officials will be able to receive advanced warning of potential failures. The report emphasizes redundant communications and power systems for restoring transportation systems quickly in the event that they do go down.

To adapt to new extremes, transportation providers should work more closely with weather forecasters and emergency planners, and respond to severe weather events in ways that are more routine and proactive than ad hoc. In other words, develop emergency response and evacuation plans before emergencies occur, and make sure they are communicated clearly to the people living in high-risk areas.

Finally, the study offered an age-old piece of advice that, backed by recent events and climate modeling data, may now seem more realistic: Planners should attempt to avoid placing people and infrastructure in vulnerable locations in the first place.

i think in the future - when the waters overtake all land on earth because of global warming - that only boats will be viable options for travel.  and those airplanes that can take off and land on water.  and, as mentioned on another thread, floaties.

it's literally paralyzing what a college education, some WD-40 and access to the world wide web can do.

[crickets chirping]

JTA is going to get that hovercraft yet.

QuoteOck.  You are the transportation guy....what do you think?

(http://media.katu.com/images/061106sandbags.jpg)
Sand Bags!

My feelings about the cause would probably result in more heat. My opinion is that we humans are quite helpless to cause this mess by ourselves. The FACT that a single volcano in the South Pacific, tossed out more pollution, and caused more damage to the earth then everything mankind has done in his entire history. This makes me think when the clock counts down, we are screwed. We didn't cause it and likewise, when the time comes for the next climate changing mega disaster, we won't fix it either. Just look at what they say is on tap:

tsunami strikes East Coast of USA
Gama rays take down world communications
Earthquakes take out Los Angeles
Comet strike (in Western USA?) changing the poles by as much as 15 degrees
shorter and colder days due to global dust clouds
Rising sea levels wipe out coastal cities around the world
Flooding of the American Southeast (the Yankee's ultimate revenge?)
Nearly complete submersion of Florida
California Splitting with 40% in the sea
Yellowstone and Mammoth Lake, major Volcano's erupt
New Madrid earthquake in mid-America
Japan submerges under plate pressure

Now hit rewind to the events of post Katrina, Mississippi or Louisiana. Remember how that event had the mighty big dog, uncle Sam, on his knees begging for help. With Katrina looking like a Sunday School picnic, we are screwed... royally screwed. Sand bags? Face it y'all, if it gets to any of these extremes, debate about the railroad going under water is probably the least of our worries. We'll quickly recede to the point of food, clean water, clothing and shelter will be our main concern. The world society, governments, transportation and rule of law and order, would melt down overnight.

In my opinion, the strangest part of this whole possibility is the left and far left have been preaching and teaching this version of "science" for more then 20 years. "The Sky is Falling" has become the marching order for millions and they have science to back them up. Yet on the right and far right we have the Conservative Christian community who have been expecting the same things for some 2000 years. It's an end of the world prophecy picnic... Yet the Conservative Christian community is at the very heart of those who deny that anything is happening, or going to happen. Pointing to a "Lack of proof", the Conservative Christian right seems to believe that global warming is a Communist plot to overthrow America. So the very people that have been telling us the World would end in a ball of fire for 2000 years, seem to have gotten cold feet as the time grows near. I would think the crowd at FBC or the local Assemblies would be pointing to the doomsday clock and saying "see we told you so..." Alas, "Thinking themselves to be wise, they became as fools..."

What do I think? I'll stick with my Bible and in Jesus, because when the day or hour of these Apocalyptic predictions arrive, He will be the only hope. Don't get caught dead without your program...  

Ocklawaha

If we are to consider this as a real and present danger, I'd say the railroads have several courses of action that will not be as simple for highway or air transportation.

Rising Sea Levels: Not a heck of a lot any mode can do against this threat, but on a national or state level some solution can be found in Northern Europe where the low countries have lived with dikes and sea-walls for the better part of 100 years. If the time came for Florida to do the same, we too would have to wall up our shorelines. The bigger picture for Florida might be the economy of losing the very reason most people have come to the state... Beaches, safe-dry land to retire on. With beaches a distant memory and land in short supply, prices would soar. Taxes to pay for the sea-wall would be unbearable for many and the state, or what ever is left of it would probably skid into a steep decline. With that said, the impact on transportation, especially railroads would be catastrophic. The initial effects would be the construction of new coastal rail lines to carry fill material. Overall the boom in freight would be huge, but the revenue and wear and tear would be worse. Sand and rock are about as low on the rate chart as one can get and hauling these heavies would beat the tracks to death. Normally this is a "also ran" type cargo, not something you would normally build to serve, rather something that once built could be handled on the cheap and without great effort. Along the East Coast the change in rail would be slight as we already have a coastal rail system from St. Augustine to Miami. The gap in track from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine would probably be filled in as the Sea-wall construction inched along. Again not normally something that would be recruited or considered a prime cargo, the sheer size of the Sea-Wall around Florida would probably dictate a massive rail construction project. Historically this type of "construction railroad" was laid in rough and cheap, then abandoned as quickly as it was laid down when the job was complete. In our case it would serve our area well to plan out such a line and how to keep it intact and open for future contingency's, evacuations or dike repair. The South and West of the State would require a completely purpose built coastal rail system.

(http://www.drgw.net/trips/trips/floridaalaska-NDH-%5bmay-2002%5d/chapter.2/csxt-train-hopewell_fl-%5b6-may-2002%5d-000-960x640.jpg)

Using the current rail system to deliver "high tide" fill would quickly swamp and destroy our remaining tracks. We have allowed far too many miles of key links to be abandoned and as a result we have closed many alternate routes.

A short list of what I would consider main routes for movement of coastal rock and sand to and from Central Florida as well as locations north of Florida follows here. Note that I listed the former rail routes including the end points. Where the end points retain rail service they are in brackets, "()", followed by, or, proceeding the town where service currently starts or ends:

(Jacksonville) Baldwin-Lake Butler-Alachua-Gainesville-Ocala-Leesburg-Trilby (St. Petersburg);
Wildwood-Leesburg-Tavares (Orlando);
(Wildwood) Coleman-Center Hill-Auburndale;
(Tampa) Brooksville-Inverness-Dunnellon (Alachua);
Bartow-West Lake Wales;
Perry-Dunnellon;
Tallahassee-St. Marks;
Tallahassee-Carrabelle;
Ft. Myers-Naples;
Sarasota-Venice;
Sebring-La Belle-Everglades City;
Yulee-Callahan;
Jacksonville-Jacksonville Beach-Mayport

With these segments replaced things would be much more fluid under these crush loads.

Another aspect would be the increasing fuel situation. Railroads have the unique ability to string wire and use the coming tides, sun  or winds to power the trains. Since electricity can be transported over thousands of miles but cannot be stored, it could find a ready use as power for our emergency rail system. Tests done in the early 1900's demonstrated that electric powered locomotives were able to push head on against the largest steam locomotives and win the day. In every locomotive push-off test the steamers shoved the electrics back for a quarter mile or so, then the big juice jacks bit in and brought the beasts to a halt, ending in a reverse for steam. The tests were repeated with diesel with similar results, we can't get better then electric and it can only be done with today's know how on rails.

Track. Current track would not stand long with carloads of rock and sand. These cars would weigh n at 200,000 to pounds each. The FEC and the "A" line might handle these loads but the remaining network is in poor condition. If you've ever noticed a rail car rolling over a given point along the rail as a train passes, you've seen the up and down motion of the track itself. This is a pumping action that not unlike patting beach sand WILL cause water to rise, liquefaction of ballast and a resulting collapse of the infrastructure. As highways will pothole, railroads will get out of alignment and level. The cure would be to undercut the ballast (done by machine) wash it, replace and re-enforce it, replace wooden ties with concrete and relay heavier rail of at least 120 lbs per yard, where ever older lighter rail is found.

In summary, we would have to:

purchase or repurchase right-of-way
lay coastal line track with load-out sidings at regular intervals
rebuild many miles of track
rebuild current weak lines with new ties and ballast
relay rail on light segments
add several hundred new hopper cars and locomotives to the fleet

The states should have an emergency train, something I have promoted before Katrina. A train that could roll with on-board medical, surgical suites, food service, disaster relief, supplies, offices, trucks and equipment for relief. Such a train in a location like Jacksonville could respond to any breech of the sea-wall, flood, earthquake or other disaster. Just a handful of such trains stationed around the country could change history when the next Katrina strikes.

These are a few of the things I think we should be planning for today.

Ocklawaha