Metro Jacksonville

Quote
03/26/2008
by Mike Sharkey
Staff Writer

The hundreds of residential and commercial real estate agents who attended the First Coast Real Estate Economic Outlook Conference on Tuesday probably left with mixed emotions.

Economist Hank Fishkind said the worst of the current recession is yet to come, while Mayor John Peyton insisted the long-range outlook is good, especially based on the current activity and growth potential at the port.

“There are no two ways around it â€" this is a significant recession,” said Fishkind, president of Fishkind & Associates, which specializes in real estate analysis and its effect on the overall economy. “There is full-fledged economic panic.”

Fishkind puts the blame on several factors including high energy prices and a housing market in a tailspin nationwide.

“We are in the midst of a major housing correction not seen since 1986 through 1992,” he said. “There will be a relatively slow recovery.”

the rest of the article is here...
http://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/showstory.php?Story_id=49705

Agreed.  This is why there are so many good deals out there.  The masses have been scared away and the wise contrarians will end up making a lot of money on their panic. 

River...just be careful not to catch a falling knife.

This hit me today.  Has anyone else ever wondered what effect the Cecil decision would have had on our local economy right now if it had gone the other way?  Also whatever happened to all those major companies that were going to locate at Cecil just as soon as the Navy option was eliminated?

from 2006

QuoteNavy: A report prepared by the Haas Center for Business Research and Economic Development at the University of West Florida estimated that by 2011 there would be a regional impact of 31,460 employees if the Navy returns. By 2017, as the transfer was completed, the number would drop slightly to a stable 29,610. Virginia's Oceana Naval Air Station is the busiest master jet base in the nation, the Haas report said, with approximately 9,247 active-duty military and 2,547 civilian personnel operating and maintaining 254 jets. That comprises the on-base workforce only. Basic pay for naval personnel starts at $1,142.70 a month and tops off at $12,433.20 for the most senior officers, like members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Average pay for naval workers at the base, according to the Haas report, would be $50,095.

http://www.jacksonville.com/tu-online/stories/110506/met_5998443.shtml

Quote from: Driven1 on April 01, 2008, 07:20:27 PM
River...just be careful not to catch a falling knife.

Like investing in commodities at the height of the bubble?   ;)

This is classic.  Fishkind is a boob and has predicted the bottom of the Housing Collapse for 5 Straight Years.  Quite a track record.

I only hope the Great Contrarian who submitted the comment above bought a home back in March of 2008.  Florida is only down 25% plus in that time.  Applying rigid axioms to dynamic situations is a fantastic way to lose money. 

Under normal circumstances catching a falling knife is a terrible idea.  When you are talking about an expensive, highly-leveraged asset like a house, it leads to foreclosure at best.

For more detailed understanding of Fishkind's atrocious record or the ongoing Depression please visit http://theaffordablemortgagedepression.com

yeah, these are umm awkward times.  in past oct, we bought a 2500sq ft + home, w/ a garage apt (and tenent).
The seller gave us a mortgage. we re really happy, but one does feel uneasy. i guess this could be an unknown bargain (has was 1988-92) but the wholesale story is economic hard times for 5yrs plus.
one thing that calms me is that i did buy my house because i wanted to live there, its not so much a pure investment.

it is not a bad time to invest in real estate right now. The problem withe investing in falling market is one does not know if the market would go even lower.
An other question about investing in this market is the opportunity cost. let's say, I have 50k cash sitting in the bank, should i buy a distressed property around the corner (without mortgage) or stock of an emerging technology company or just some index fund? Each investment strategy has its pros and cons.........

Fishkind also did a study for the Outer Beltway...his pop. and emp. projections are much higher than BEBR, supposedy because of the increased attractiveness the roadway and Cecil bring to the area...but of course his projections also yield to higher traffic forecasts, making the Outer Beltway look more feasible to a private builder

Quote from: selmon on July 05, 2009, 10:03:27 AM

For more detailed understanding of Fishkind's atrocious record or the ongoing Depression please visit http://theaffordablemortgagedepression.com

Interesting info from that site posted 9/16/2009:

QuoteOver the last six months, notices of home foreclosures have been running about 350,000 a month, which is over 4 million a year. A lot of homes are headed to the auction block with their mortgages headed for the shredder.

For mortgage losses we should recognize that prime mortgages on average are significantly larger than sub-prime, and it only stands to reason that the larger the house and mortgage, the bigger the loss.

With over 50 percent of mortgages failing coming from prime loans, bigger loan losses lie ahead.

But I think the forecast isn't all that bleak. To me it does seem we are at a turning point, or at least a point of stabilization from which we will be making a slow and painful recovery.