QuoteHas Rex Ryan's, Bill Belichick's AFC East Become the Weakest Division in the NFL?
By Adam Waksman
How unthinkable would it have been in 2010 to think that in only three years the AFC East would become one of the worst divisions in the NFL (and the NFC West one of the best)?
Looking at the current state of affairs, I cannot help but be reminded of the 2010 season, around Week 12, when the New York Jets and New England Patriots were tied atop the AFC at 9-2. They seemed like the far-and-away two best teams in the AFC, and the AFC East was a deep and challenging division. Meanwhile, the NFC West was continuing its nearly-decade long run of being one of the weakest divisions in the league.
Now with all of the problems in both New York and Boston, the AFC East has gone soft, while the NFC West is suddenly atop the league with the games between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers becoming true rivalry games.
Near the Bottom
In his divisional rankings, John Breech of CBSSports.com listed the AFC East as the second-worst division, ahead of the AFC West (I found this last bit surprising with the Denver Broncos likely to be Super Bowl favorites).
Understanding how the AFC East fell so far is not particularly hard to understand. First, the Jets, who were strong for three years from 2008-2010, suffered a major dip in offensive production. As a result, they are now a middle-of-the-road team or even slightly below average, far from where they were only three years ago.
Meanwhile the Patriots have undergone a catastrophic exodus of offensive talent this offseason, including their five most productive receivers (unless they get back either Aaron Hernandez or Rob Gronkowski at tight end). Tom Brady remains an elite quarterback, but it will be interesting to see how he handles his first ever season without strong offensive talent around him. For his part, Breech seems to be expecting a dip, and he is not the only one.
Rounding out the division are the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills, who between them have only one playoff appearance since 2001 (a first-round loss by the Dolphins in 2008 during the brief Chad Pennington resurgence).
How Can It Get Better?
Each team has reason to hope they can keep the division from falling into the gutter. The Patriots will need to field a serviceable defense. They have relied on a historically great offense for the past several years. Without it, they can still be a strong team as long as they can put together an average quality defense, something that has not happened in New England's recent history.
Existing in a different type of situation, the Jets need to get offense, something they have lacked completely for the past two years. That like would mean a legitimate running attack with Chris Ivory and Mike Goodson and legitimate quarterback play (ideally from the rookie Geno Smith).
The Dolphins and Bills both need to hope for resurgent offenses, which will need to be led by young quarterbacks. The Dolphins should be continuing for a second year with Ryan Tannehill, who has been mistake-prone but also promising at times. The Bills might take a chance with rookie first-round pick E.J. Manuel.
Playoffs?
It is a bit early for playoff talk, but ultimately one of these four teams will have to make it. In the current format, division winners are guaranteed a spot. The rational bet seems to be on the Patriots to win the division again, despite all of their problems this offseason. They still have the best quarterback and one of the more veteran offenses in the division. Their defense in all likelihood will be no worse than it was last year.
However, I have no doubt that is not the prevailing attitude within the Jets' organization. With head coach Rex Ryan being viewed (at least by some) as being on a hot seat and with a significant number of veterans still around from the recent deep playoff runs, I am sure that the Jets will be seeking to put fear back into the rival Patriots in September.
Adam Waksman is a Yahoo! contributor in sports. He also covers the New York Jets for Bleacher Report, where he is a Featured Columnist and award-winning blogger.
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/rex-ryans-bill-belichicks-afc-east-become-weakest-091600103.html (http://sports.yahoo.com/news/rex-ryans-bill-belichicks-afc-east-become-weakest-091600103.html)
More importantly, does this increase Jaguars chances of making Playoffs this season?
I don't think we have a chance to make it to the playoffs this year. Just being realistic. We definitely won't be one of the 4 division winners. I think it'll be the Texans, Pats (or even Miami), Broncos, Baltimore. The 2 AFC wildcards would be either Indy or Miami or Cincy. I would guess that the Steelers would finish with a better record than us as well.