We've heard everything the national pundits have said about Tuesday's election results, but politics at its core is local. And there are takeaways hidden within Jacksonville's returns that give us a glimpse into the psyche of local voters. In no particular order, here are four things we learned, or were reminded of.
Jacksonville is still a Republican city. Sure, the margins have tightened in the last decade, but we're still reliably Republican. Mitt Romney managed to grow the GOP's percentage of victory in Duval County when compared to John McCain's performance in 2008 and Republicans won the Clerk of Court race and a state Senate seat. There was an exception, of course. This year's triumph by U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson was the latest proof that a Democrat can carry Jacksonville, but we'll discuss that in more detail in a moment.
Voters didn't fall for easy sound bites on tax cuts. Amendments 3 and 4, which would have capped state revenues by limiting revenue growth to match increases in cost of living and population and placed an annual assessment cap on businesses and second homes, lost in Jacksonville by a wide margin. Voters saw beyond the easy promise of "lower taxes" and heard genuine concern that the amendments could cripple local governments. And they rejected it, despite an unwillingness by Jacksonville leaders to take a firm stance against the amendments. What does it mean for Jacksonville's ongoing debate on annual property tax cuts? That remains to be seen, but it does seem to indicate an unwillingness on the part of Jacksonville voters to vote in favor of bills that potentially could have cut local services.
Jacksonville voters aren't social issue voters. Amendment 6, which would have limited abortion rights in the state, suffered a narrow loss in Jacksonville. Amendment 8, which would have repealed Florida's ban on public funding of religious organizations, suffered a similar fate. The results were surprising, particularly in light of the fact that both amendments were strongly backed by conservative churches, with most Catholic parishes placing signs in church yards to advocate for "Yes" votes. Despite the sermons delivered in churches across the city, voters wanted none of it. And in a city where the religious community has long played a powerful role in politics, most recently with the City Council's rejection of a city ordinance that would have banned discrimination against gays and lesbians, the result - however narrow - is notable.
The business community still wields a heavy hand in the city. Despite Jacksonville's GOP tilt, voters voted overwhelmingly - 53 percent to 44 percent - to return Democrat Bill Nelson to the U.S. Senate. His victory speaks to his extensive courting of Jacksonville's business community, even serving as the keynote speaker for a recent annual meeting of the Jacksonville Regional Chamber of Commerce. Many business leaders, recognizing the power a three-term Senator would have in a chamber where seniority trumps star power, were unwilling to take a chance on a newcomer. And voters, keenly aware of the ongoing spat with Virginia's congressional delegation over a naval carrier, followed their lead.
Your thoughts are welcome.
I was pleasantly surprised by the defeat of amendments 3 and 4. I thought 4 would pass easily. Hopefully you are right Abel, and we are beginning to reach the threshold of continued disinvestment in our city.
Quote from: dougskiles on November 07, 2012, 09:30:22 PM
I was pleasantly surprised by the defeat of amendments 3 and 4. I thought 4 would pass easily. Hopefully you are right Abel, and we are beginning to reach the threshold of continued disinvestment in our city.
^ +1 I voted against all the amendments
Me as well. We're already in the red. More tax cuts without first resolving the problems that keep us underwater makes no sense to me.
When the last time that the president campaigned in Jax? I thought that he was very passive in Northeastern FL, as he focused most of he's attention on the 1-4 corridor. Now in hindsight, it absolutely was the right tactical decision, but maybe that's why the republicans won this county (only by 4 points BTW). Everytime I turned around, Mitt and Paul was here in Jax area campaigning. I know that the first lady was here often, but there's no one like a president or challenger. All that I'm saying is don't expect a traditionally red county to suddenly turn blue if the big cheese is not actively campaigning here.
Exactly i-10....Obama stopped here 4 times in 2008....he stopped here once this time...and yet, Romney only took 2 points away as compared with mccain
Quote from: I-10east on November 07, 2012, 09:59:26 PM
When the last time that the president campaigned in Jax? I thought that he was very passive in Northeastern FL, as he focused most of he's attention on the 1-4 corridor. Now in hindsight, it absolutely was the right tactical decision, but maybe that's why the republicans won this county (only by 4 points BTW). Everytime I turned around, Mitt and Paul was here in Jax area campaigning. I know that the first lady was here often, but there's no one like a president or challenger. All that I'm saying is don't expect a traditionally red county to suddenly turn blue if the big cheese is not actively campaigning here.
In a Presidential race for the electoral vote, I think when you look at Florida as a whole, Jacksonville is somewhat irrelevant. Win South Florida, the I-4 Corridor, and a few college towns and that pretty much gives you the state. In this race, it appears Obama spent more time on those two and employed a similar strategy in Ohio.
^^^Well Mitt Romney certainly didn't think that Jax was irrelevant with all of that campaigning they were doing here.
Quote from: I-10east on November 08, 2012, 03:10:47 AM
^^^Well Mitt Romney certainly didn't think that Jax was irrelevant with all of that campaigning they were doing here.
Well Willard Mitt Romney did win in Old Jacksonville, Fl.
^^^No kidding.
Quote from: thelakelander on November 07, 2012, 11:42:33 PM
Quote from: I-10east on November 07, 2012, 09:59:26 PM
When the last time that the president campaigned in Jax? I thought that he was very passive in Northeastern FL, as he focused most of he's attention on the 1-4 corridor. Now in hindsight, it absolutely was the right tactical decision, but maybe that's why the republicans won this county (only by 4 points BTW). Everytime I turned around, Mitt and Paul was here in Jax area campaigning. I know that the first lady was here often, but there's no one like a president or challenger. All that I'm saying is don't expect a traditionally red county to suddenly turn blue if the big cheese is not actively campaigning here.
In a Presidential race for the electoral vote, I think when you look at Florida as a whole, Jacksonville is somewhat irrelevant. Win South Florida, the I-4 Corridor, and a few college towns and that pretty much gives you the state. In this race, it appears Obama spent more time on those two and employed a similar strategy in Ohio.
Are you kidding? Not only is the Jacksonville area a major Republican stronghold, Duval is also one of the few counties in all of North Florida where Democrats can reliably get a lot of votes. In a state that's consistently this close, every vote counts. For Reps, it's not a matter of "winning" South Florida and a few college towns, that's a fantasy. They need to do well in the north. And for Dems, mitigating the Republicans' advantage in Jacksonville by rallying their constituents, as Obama did twice, goes a long way in delivering the state.
I get from some that Jax is a 'lost cause' concerning turning the county blue; Because 100% of Jax are just a bunch of tea party members who chew tobacco, and drive Toyota Tundras with bumper stickers talking about Civil War battles. I totally disagree with that mentality. I still think that the POTUS was way too passive in Jax. Last time that I checked, winning Duval County by around 4 points isn't a landslide (like Romney did) and most importantly winning the state by only 46K votes CERTAINLY is not a landslide. So for the next presidential democrat candidate in 2016, I wouldn't be so passive in Northeastern Florida.
Quote from: Tacachale on November 08, 2012, 08:52:14 AM
Are you kidding? Not only is the Jacksonville area a major Republican stronghold, Duval is also one of the few counties in all of North Florida where Democrats can reliably get a lot of votes. In a state that's consistently this close, every vote counts. For Reps, it's not a matter of "winning" South Florida and a few college towns, that's a fantasy. They need to do well in the north. And for Dems, mitigating the Republicans' advantage in Jacksonville by rallying their constituents, as Obama did twice, goes a long way in delivering the state.
Agreed..... every vote counted. All be it nationally.
Quote from: Tacachale on November 08, 2012, 08:52:14 AM
Quote from: thelakelander on November 07, 2012, 11:42:33 PM
Quote from: I-10east on November 07, 2012, 09:59:26 PM
When the last time that the president campaigned in Jax? I thought that he was very passive in Northeastern FL, as he focused most of he's attention on the 1-4 corridor. Now in hindsight, it absolutely was the right tactical decision, but maybe that's why the republicans won this county (only by 4 points BTW). Everytime I turned around, Mitt and Paul was here in Jax area campaigning. I know that the first lady was here often, but there's no one like a president or challenger. All that I'm saying is don't expect a traditionally red county to suddenly turn blue if the big cheese is not actively campaigning here.
In a Presidential race for the electoral vote, I think when you look at Florida as a whole, Jacksonville is somewhat irrelevant. Win South Florida, the I-4 Corridor, and a few college towns and that pretty much gives you the state. In this race, it appears Obama spent more time on those two and employed a similar strategy in Ohio.
Are you kidding? Not only is the Jacksonville area a major Republican stronghold, Duval is also one of the few counties in all of North Florida where Democrats can reliably get a lot of votes. In a state that's consistently this close, every vote counts. For Reps, it's not a matter of "winning" South Florida and a few college towns, that's a fantasy. They need to do well in the north. And for Dems, mitigating the Republicans' advantage in Jacksonville by rallying their constituents, as Obama did twice, goes a long way in delivering the state.
No I'm not kidding and I didn't mean to make it read like I'm saying every person's vote doesn't count. I'm just saying if you wanted to tilt the state blue, it wouldn't hurt to spend more time and resources lobbying a larger segment of the State's population, especially the swinging I-4 corridor and its 7 million residents.
I voted NO on all the amendments just on principle alone.
Borrowed from a friend.
"...As well as Romney executed the GOP playbook, his campaign in Florida was undercut by stunning results in three counties: Duval, Osceola and Miami-Dade.
“He did not win Duval County by the margin needed to win in a statewide race in Florida,†said Chris Ingram, a
Republican political consultant based in Tampa.
Duval, home to Jacksonville, has long been a strong GOP county; former president George W. Bush had a 61,000-vote advantage there in winning Florida in 2004. But Romney on Tuesday appeared to carry the county by just under 15,000 votes.
The result was a 46,000-vote deficit â€" nearly the amount by which Romney trailed Obama statewide.
Other counties underperformed for Republicans, but veteran GOP campaign manager Jamie Miller said Duval stands out because of how critical it has been in helping offset Democratic strongholds in southeast Florida..."
Diane M.
What was the Duval County difference in 2008. Wasn't it similar?
I will take a look Ennis. :-*
Diane M.
McCain won Duval by 17,919 votes in 2008. Still more than what Romney got this time around.
Diane M.
Interesting. Diane, what's your take on this? Could it be that Duval's base doesn't exactly align with the conservative platform pushed by the Tea Party and Sean Hannity types? Could it be that as Jacksonville continues to grow, our population is becoming more diverse and starting to resemble demographics similar with most large urban centers across the country?
I take away that Mack was a bad candidate and Nelson was more appeal to republicans than given credit for. Hes an old white guy that went to space afterall. Of course hes trustworthy.
QuotePresident Obama and his formidable campaign machine out-performed the Republicans, holding together a winning coalition that is the face of America’s tomorrow: young voters, urban voters, racially and ethnically diverse voters and women voters.
According to exit polls, Obama won 60 percent of the 18 to 29 year old vote and 52 percent of the 30-40 vote. He won 69 percent of the vote in big cities and 58 percent of the vote in mid-sized cities. He won 93 percent of the black vote and more than 70 percent of both the Asian vote and the Hispanic vote. He won over half of the female vote. And he won 76 percent of the gay, lesbian and bisexual vote.
Mitt Romney won the white vote, the male vote, the elderly vote, the small cities vote and the high-income vote.
The base of Democratic support in this country is expanding. The Republican base is shrinking, becoming more racially homogenous, more rural and older.
Reality made for a great rending of garments and gnashing of teeth among conservatives.
Full Article:
http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/07/picket-fence-apocalypse/?hp
I have several thoughts about this Ennis. First and foremost is that our demographics in Jacksonville are changing and as such there will be a change in what political party continues to carry Duval if Democrats remain wise to this fact. I believe that the difference in numbers from 2004, 2008 to 2012 has a great deal to do with the turnout of Black voters in this county and other areas throughout the nation, behind them come women, Latino's and Asians. As you know Jacksonville/Duval has always had many more registered Democrats than Republicans. It has been the inability to turn out the Democrat voter that has plagued our city when it comes to voting tallies and continued Republican control. It was clearly the Black Democrat vote that has most impacted the local Republican stronghold. This can be seen when we look at the makeup of our city council as well. In largely Black communities, even before 2012 Blacks have consistently elected Black leaders. The Black community to date has almost always supported a Black candidate in a race. The overwhelming vote totals this community delivered to Obama more than proves this out. The attempts of some Republican power players to repress the Black/minority vote in many areas of our nation further evidences the fear some have that once Black/minority voters recognize their power at the polls, things in politics can and will change.
At the national level we are seeing our country move from a White majority to a White minority. This will happen in my lifetime for sure and I am currently 60 years old. I also believe this is what is meant to happen in our country which is after all a country of immigrants. We are witnessing the passing of the days of "Good Old Boy" politics in this country which will unfortunately take longer in Jacksonville than in other areas. This is because many minority players in our local political scene are in office because of the work of the old White "Good Old Boy" politicians and the money behind them. Our current mayor being a prime example. The failure of the Black community to recognize this practice as voter repression also impacts the quality of leadership we see in this city.
How quickly we see a change in Duval from a Republican stronghold to a Democrat stronghold will become clear when Obama leaves office and we face yet another Presidential election. Obama who I see as a bi-racial man is seen by most as a Black man, in spite of being equally white and black. He was supported by Blacks as a Black man. That says something about human perception I believe. None the less, if the next Democrat candidate for the office of President is not Black, what can we expect when it comes to voter turnout? Or if the Republicans come up with a strong minority candidate what would happen then? It is hard to predict the outcome right now which is why you can bet both political camps are busily trying to figure out how to present themselves and a future candidate to their voting base. Duval is still in many ways a bellwether for Florida politics which is why we get so much attention during state and national races.
The game change for Republicans will be when minorities rally behind minorities and vote in minority candidates regardless of them being Black, Hispanic, Asian or of any other minority group. The Republican party in spite of their claims of inclusion is still a party for Whites, unless that changes they will eventually find they no longer have control over Duval politics. They have already lost that control at the National level and unless they make some major changes in they way they do business they will not see a candidate of theirs become President in the near future.
Diane M.
Romney campaign: We lost FloridaQuoteThough votes are still being tallied, President Obama is all but assured a victory in Florida because the lion’s share of the outstanding ballots come from Democratic-heavy counties.
QuoteThe numbers in Florida look unlikely to change in Romney’s favor.
Miami-Dade finished tallying a backlog of 54,000 absentee ballots Thursday and it marginally increased Obama’s lead.
Still outstanding:
• Broward County. It has about 15,000 absentee ballots outstanding. Obama won Broward 67-32 percent. If those numbers hold, it would give Obama 2,887 more votes.
• Palm Beach County. It could have as many as 30,000 votes yet to add to its tally. Obama won that county 58-41 percent. If those numbers hold, Obama would pick up another 5,141 votes.
• Duval County. The only non-South Florida County, Duval has about 3,600 absentee ballots to be counted. Romney won it narrowly, 51-48 percent. At that rate, Romney would only pick up 133 more votes.
Even if the estimates from South Florida were reversed and Obama’s extra projected votes were handed to Romney, the Republican would still lose by about 32,000 votes.
full article: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/08/3087995/romney-campaign-we-lost-florida.html
LOL, not so "irrelevant" after all, eh lake?