www.patrick.net
btw...here, we have not started to see it yet...we are in the 1st phase...DENIAL...that's why homes aren't moving and prices aren't coming down precipitously.
i am genuinely concerned. not panicked, but concerned. b/c i know the RE market is like every other capital market. when you have HUGE runups (unprecedented runup), you HAVE to have a big drop.
read this (Housing Meltdown) to understand why...http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_06/b4070040767516.htm?ref=patrick.net
btw...IMO, there is NO REASON UNDER THE SUN that the homebuilders should be rallying (up over 100% in the last month or so)...no fundamental reason...ESPECIALLY builders like Standard Pacific that have 40% of their work in CA...still a lot of pain to come...both here and nationwide.
last btw...what really pisses me off is how the gov't is trying to step in and stop the losses...capitalism without failures is the worst kind of socialism!
the first phase is "precontemplation" we don't even "see" as a problem.