(http://i.huffpost.com/gen/490139/thumbs/r-RICK-SCOTT-HIGH-SPEED-RAIL-large570.jpg)
KNOW who you vote for!!
By TED JACKOVICS | The Tampa Tribune
Published: February 06, 2012 Updated: February 06, 2012 - 5:00 AM
» 356 Comments | Post a Comment
TAMPA --
The high-speed rail project that Gov. Rick Scott doomed last February by turning down more than $2 billion in federal money would have made an annual surplus of $31 million to $45 million within a decade of operation, according to a state report.
The Florida Department of Transportation sent the report to the Federal Railroad Administration in November. The Tampa Tribune obtained the document after a lengthy public records request.
The heart of the report is an analysis by two consulting firms of projected ridership, costs and the resulting surplus â€" or loss. If the project to link Tampa and Orlando would have gone forward, the research would have been used in determining an investment grade for bond sales.
According to data from both consulting firms hired by the state, the project, which would have given Florida the nation's first high-speed rail line, would have been a fiscally sound decision.
The firm of Steer, Davis, Gleave projected Tampa-Orlando ridership of 2.5 million and a $9.1 million deficit in 2016, the first year of operation. By 2026, though, the high-speed rail would be carrying nearly 5 million passengers a year and generate an annual surplus of $31.1 million, according to the firm.
The projection by Wilbur Smith Associates was even rosier. The firm estimated 3.6 million riders in 2016, producing a $17.6 million operating surplus. By 2026, Florida's high-speed rail would carry more than 5 million riders and produce a $44.8 million surplus, according to its analysis.
The state used the information from the two consultants to come up with a midrange estimate: 3 million passengers and $4.3 million surplus in the first year, and a ridership of nearly 5 million and an annual surplus of $38 million by 2026.
The initial stage of the project would have been the Tampa-to-Orlando route. An Orlando-to-Miami route was envisioned as a second phase, but because those plans had no dedicated funding, the consultants did not include that route in their study.
If they had, the surpluses would have been larger, the report says.
"Ridership and revenue for the (proposed second phase) Orlando-Miami corridor would be expected to be substantially higher and produce large operating surpluses," the state report said.
A Scott spokesman last week said the governor stands by his decision to turn down the federal offer to pay $2.4 billion of the projects estimated $2.65 billion cost. The governor's office has said Scott was "verbally briefed" on highlights of the study before it was completed.
"The governor thoroughly explored all of the issues surrounding High-Speed Rail, especially ways to lessen the financial risk to Florida, but he ultimately reached the same conclusion that California is now reaching â€" that the concept just isn't going to be able to pay for itself," Scott's communication director Brian Burgess said in an email.
When making his decision a year ago, Scott relied heavily on a January 2011 Reason Foundation policy brief, whose project director Robert Poole Jr. served on Scott's gubernatorial transition team.
Using comparisons with overseas high-speed rail projects and one envisioned for California, the report by the libertarian (rail hating) group said it was likely the project would cost significantly more to build than estimated and that the state could be on the hook for significant operating subsidies for years.
The state report noted that, "Concerns have been expressed about the possible capital cost overruns from the project that could obligate Florida taxpayers as well as concerns about ridership and revenue projections that historically are overly optimistic.''
That reference clearly is directed toward the governor's publicly stated skepticism toward the project, though Scott is not mentioned by name in the executive summary.
The report said private-sector interest in high-speed rail had been substantial. Up to eight consortiums were anticipated to bid on the project, representing most of the world's existing high-speed rail systems, including China, Japan, South Korea, France, Germany and Spain.(my comment: they were not concerned about cost-overruns and would have covered any if they did occur)
"Several teams had expressed willingness to absorb ridership risk and invest in the system," the report said.
Ross Capon, president and chief executive of the National Association of Railroad Passengers, which favors high-speed rail, said large transportation projects, such as new highways, often have "issues'' like cost overruns.
The projects often are "steamrollered through'' by governments because major infrastructure work usually pays for itself through time, he said.
Such government resolve has not yet shown up when it comes to high-speed rail, he said.
"It's less likely with rail because so many people are eager for various reasons to attack any rail plan that actually appears close to implementation," Capon said.
Some of the federal money for high-speed rail that had been offered to Florida instead went to California. Price estimates for that project have consistently risen over early estimates, which Scott says shows he was right to turn down the money.
Capon argues Florida's situation is different from California, which he said has complex issues of what routes to take and build first. Florida's plan of Tampa to Orlando, then Orlando to Miami, followed straight paths on level terrain with some segments on Interstate right-of-way paid for and set aside for rail.
Florida's final report shows the state closed out its project by preparing an electronic archive with 85,000 files and other information that could be preserved for future use.
But the once-ambitious Obama administration plan for multiple high-speed rail projects nationwide has largely disappeared â€" save for the ongoing political and planning battle for a California system. The fiscal 2012 federal budget has no high-speed rail funding and the five-year, $260 billion transportation plan U.S. House Republicans unveiled in late January dropped further development of high-speed rail.
What's been lost, Capon said, is Florida's opportunity to raise its economic development image worldwide, along with an alternative transportation system for the state.
tjackovics@tampatrib.com (813) 259-7817
http://www2.tbo.com/news/breaking-news/2012/feb/06/high-speed-rail-would-have-been-profitable-state-r-ar-355492/
Bravo Repubublican governors and congressmen,............ you have scored major regressive political points by killing HSR EVERYWHERE USA, to great detriment of JOBS and State Revenues!!
Want more regressive policies on Transportation? Look no further than your local Republican Party.
Built as planned, this train would have been dead within 10 years. The track might have made a new smoother route for 2 or 3 Amtrak trains, or perhaps CSX freight. It was unworkable and unrealistic as it would have actually lengthened the trip time between the central Orlando MSA metro and downtown Tampa. Lengthened trip time at a substantially higher cost to the passenger would doom the railroad. Once it failed to meet the "makes money" criteria, the Republicans would have used it as a poster child for every railroad project seeking funding for the next 100 years.
As Lakelander and I have said, a CALTRAIN style fast, frequent, conventional service, operated as regional corridor trains along the CSX would be the most logical way to determine if there is even a market for the service. This is something that can still be done and it's a hell of a lot less money then diving off a multi-billion dollar cliff for an unknown result.
Revenue has no meaning unless counted against cost/maintenace. Ock is right, this was a fiasco to begin with.
Quote from: civil42806 on February 07, 2012, 12:13:09 PM
Revenue has no meaning unless counted against cost/maintenace. Ock is right, this was a fiasco to begin with.
civil, when one talks about revenue surplus it means AFTER costs. Basic economics.
FL missed out on a revenue source it badly needed.
Quote from: Ocklawaha on February 07, 2012, 11:58:43 AM
Once it failed to meet the "makes money" criteria, the Republicans would have used it as a poster child for every railroad project seeking funding for the next 100 years.
Though everybody agrees that HSR would be better suited for longer distances and with fewer stops, how can anyone be afraid of ANY Republican criticism, if the state would NEVER have been on the hook..............Private companies were willing to assume the risk entirely!!!
Isn't that what Republicans want?
QuoteUp to eight consortiums were anticipated to bid on the project, representing most of the world's existing high-speed rail systems, including China, Japan, South Korea, France, Germany and Spain.(my comment: they were not concerned about cost-overruns and would have covered any if they did occur)
"Several teams had expressed willingness to absorb ridership risk and invest in the system," the report said.
Actually the term is profit not revenue surplus. Revenue surplus is an invention of government officials and consultunts. Does anyone really think there would be 2.5 million passengers in 2016? Consulting firms will tell you what you want to hear much like these did. Besides making predictions out to 2026 is like reading cards, you might as well just make it up as you go along, ooops I think they actually did
Quote from: FayeforCure on February 07, 2012, 12:19:33 PM
Quote from: civil42806 on February 07, 2012, 12:13:09 PM
Revenue has no meaning unless counted against cost/maintenace. Ock is right, this was a fiasco to begin with.
civil, when one talks about revenue surplus it means AFTER costs. Basic economics.
FL missed out on a revenue source it badly needed.
Just look at the skyway, it has been another great revenue source
Quote from: FayeforCure on February 07, 2012, 12:22:30 PM
Quote from: Ocklawaha on February 07, 2012, 11:58:43 AM
Once it failed to meet the "makes money" criteria, the Republicans would have used it as a poster child for every railroad project seeking funding for the next 100 years.
Though everybody agrees that HSR would be better suited for longer distances and with fewer stops, how can anyone be afraid of ANY Republican criticism, if the state would NEVER have been on the hook..............Private companies were willing to assume the risk entirely!!!
Isn't that what Republicans want?
There is a certainty that the private companies would have assumed some of the risked, but a total failure based on bad planning and invented numbers would have brought the house down around them. Few railroad operators, international ones included could continue to absorb a huge deficit. Actually Faye I'm sort of amazed that the Republicans didn't jump on this band wagon just to watch it crash, then blame everyone else for a new fact, "High Speed Rail won't work in America." More then the location, schedule, route, stations, anything else, this was and remains my number one concern. With the negative crap coming out of Washington, a poor showing on what was being billed as a top shelf product would have just given the good IL' boys enough ammunition for shoot down every future project from rickshaws to Amtrak.
QuoteUp to eight consortium's were anticipated to bid on the project, representing most of the world's existing high-speed rail systems, including China, Japan, South Korea, France, Germany and Spain.(my comment: they were not concerned about cost-overruns and would have covered any if they did occur)
"Several teams had expressed willingness to absorb ridership risk and invest in the system," the report said.
Even if they had, and even if they continued to 'donate' billions per year for this shiny toy train, a poor ridership and return would have killed every other HSR project in the nation. Hell's bells, they have nearly done it without the major crash of a HSR system.
I am convinced with the reconstruction of the former Seaboard Air Line's famed CROSS-FLORIDA SHORTLINE, between Tampa and Lake Wales, via Bartow, we should be looking at something like this.
CONVENTIONAL TRAINS - TRACK UPGRADED TO 90-120 MPH STANDARDS (TECH NOTE: between class 5-7 track, FEC already meets class 5 over much of it's line and the balance is class 4 CSX/NS)
6 trains between Jacksonville and the Northeast
3 of the above trains split at Jacksonville sending one section each way between
Jacksonville and Tampa CSX
Jacksonville and Miami FEC
2 split at Jacksonville sending one section each way between
Jacksonville and Pensacola CSX
Jacksonville and Miami via Ocala CSX
1 splits at Jacksonville sending one section each way between
Jacksonville and Ft. Myers via Ocala CSX/SG
Jacksonville and Sarasota via Orlando/Tampa CSX/SG
Corridor trains ultimately running every hour on the Florida East Coast, Jacksonville-Miami, FEC
Corridor trains ultimately running Jacksonville-Orlando-with double the trains running Orlando-Tampa CSX
Corridor trains running Tampa-West Lake Wales-Sebring-West Palm-Miami CSX
Corridor trains running between Orlando and Miami via CSX
2 trains each way daily between Jacksonville and Atlanta, at least one continuing to Cincinnati, NS
2 trains each way daily between Jacksonville and Birmingham, at least one continuing to Memphis and Chicago.
Layout a system something like this and we'd have no problem justifying massive future improvements with a guaranteed customer base already in place.
(http://www5.pair.com/rattenne/Gallery/CT2052_10-27-98.jpg)
Typical corridor train, this one in Riverbank, CA
Quote from: Ocklawaha on February 07, 2012, 05:59:04 PM
Quote from: FayeforCure on February 07, 2012, 12:22:30 PM
Quote from: Ocklawaha on February 07, 2012, 11:58:43 AM
Once it failed to meet the "makes money" criteria, the Republicans would have used it as a poster child for every railroad project seeking funding for the next 100 years.
Though everybody agrees that HSR would be better suited for longer distances and with fewer stops, how can anyone be afraid of ANY Republican criticism, if the state would NEVER have been on the hook..............Private companies were willing to assume the risk entirely!!!
Isn't that what Republicans want?
There is a certainty that the private companies would have assumed some of the risked, but a total failure based on bad planning and invented numbers would have brought the house down around them. Few railroad operators, international ones included could continue to absorb a huge deficit. Actually Faye I'm sort of amazed that the Republicans didn't jump on this band wagon just to watch it crash, then blame everyone else for a new fact, "High Speed Rail won't work in America." More then the location, schedule, route, stations, anything else, this was and remains my number one concern. With the negative crap coming out of Washington, a poor showing on what was being billed as a top shelf product would have just given the good IL' boys enough ammunition for shoot down every future project from rickshaws to Amtrak.
QuoteUp to eight consortium's were anticipated to bid on the project, representing most of the world's existing high-speed rail systems, including China, Japan, South Korea, France, Germany and Spain.(my comment: they were not concerned about cost-overruns and would have covered any if they did occur)
"Several teams had expressed willingness to absorb ridership risk and invest in the system," the report said.
Even if they had, and even if they continued to 'donate' billions per year for this shiny toy train, a poor ridership and return would have killed every other HSR project in the nation. Hell's bells, they have nearly done it without the major crash of a HSR system.
I am convinced with the reconstruction of the former Seaboard Air Line's famed CROSS-FLORIDA SHORTLINE, between Tampa and Lake Wales, via Bartow, we should be looking at something like this.
CONVENTIONAL TRAINS - TRACK UPGRADED TO 90-120 MPH STANDARDS (TECH NOTE: between class 5-7 track, FEC already meets class 5 over much of it's line and the balance is class 4 CSX/NS)
6 trains between Jacksonville and the Northeast
3 of the above trains split at Jacksonville sending one section each way between
Jacksonville and Tampa CSX
Jacksonville and Miami FEC
2 split at Jacksonville sending one section each way between
Jacksonville and Pensacola CSX
Jacksonville and Miami via Ocala CSX
1 splits at Jacksonville sending one section each way between
Jacksonville and Ft. Myers via Ocala CSX/SG
Jacksonville and Sarasota via Orlando/Tampa CSX/SG
Corridor trains ultimately running every hour on the Florida East Coast, Jacksonville-Miami, FEC
Corridor trains ultimately running Jacksonville-Orlando-with double the trains running Orlando-Tampa CSX
Corridor trains running Tampa-West Lake Wales-Sebring-West Palm-Miami CSX
Corridor trains running between Orlando and Miami via CSX
2 trains each way daily between Jacksonville and Atlanta, at least one continuing to Cincinnati, NS
2 trains each way daily between Jacksonville and Birmingham, at least one continuing to Memphis and Chicago.
Layout a system something like this and we'd have no problem justifying massive future improvements with a guaranteed customer base already in place.