By Debbie Messina, The Virginian-Pilot, Norfolk, Va.
Aug. 14--Mike Frazier loved the newly constructed home and the friendly neighborhood, but most of all he loved the light-rail line just two blocks away.
The convenience of hopping a train downtown lured him to Hampton Roads and his Central Brambleton home last year.
"I hear the 'ding, ding, ding' from the house and I get excited," Frazier said.
His trips for freelance videographer jobs, dining, shopping and entertainment will be among The Tide's projected 2,900 daily rides when it opens Friday.
For Frazier, it's a lifestyle choice. He and his wife own two cars, but they hope to cut back to one.
"It will take away a lot of stress," he said. "I won't be thinking about traffic or whether an accident will delay me getting to a meeting."
Hampton Roads Transit expects that at least half its light-rail passengers will already be transit customers who often don't have other transportation options, but that the others will ride by choice, like Frazier.
"More choices for mobility are good," said Philip Shucet, HRT president and CEO. "When you put the drama of light rail aside for a bit and look a little bit broader than Hampton Roads, there are plenty of urban areas that are economically vibrant because they have different transportation choices."
HRT is so confident that Hampton Roads will embrace light rail that officials expect to exceed the daily ridership projections the first year.
"It's unquestionable, we'll beat the 2,900," Shucet said.
About 7,130 daily rides are estimated by 2030.
"We stand a very good chance of beating that in the first few years," he said.
Other cities that launched light-rail systems in the past decade are shattering projections:
Phoenix's Metro projected 46,000 daily rides by 2025, and already has 42,000.
Charlotte's LYNX estimated 18,000 in 2020, and carries 15,000 now.
Houston's MetroRail forecast 33,000 by 2020, and already transports 35,000.
Salt Lake City's TRAX also expected 33,000 by 2020, and is serving 39,000.
A number of light-rail systems planned and built before 2000 have not met their long-range projections, including Pittsburgh's, Baltimore's, Sacramento's and some extensions in San Diego, San Jose and Portland.
Transit planners say federal authorities changed the model used to calculate transit ridership because the early systems were counting on passengers from development along rail lines that never materialized, setting up unrealistic expectations.
The model used today is more conservative and does not count anything that does not exist when the calculations are run.
For The Tide, that means office buildings, including the Wells Fargo Center and Dominion Enterprises, plus the Belmont at Freemason apartments were not included in the ridership model. But neither was Granby Tower or the Hilton hotel and convention project, which were planned at the time but never built.
Ultimately, ridership will be the measure of success for The Tide. More people on the trains translates to fewer people on the roads, less demand for parking spaces, more incentive for development near the rail line, and less taxpayer subsidy needed to pay operating expenses.
"If for some reason ridership should fall short," Shucet said, "HRT and the city will need to put our heads together and understand why it's happening and make reasonable and responsible decisions that may serve to increase ridership."
HRT officials have some idea of who will ride, and why, from surveys conducted over the fall and winter. About one-fourth of downtown workers surveyed said they would use The Tide to commute, at least occasionally. Nearly one-third of college students said they'd use light rail to get to school.
Those surveyed did not indicate a single overwhelming reason for riding. Most often, they said they'd use it for convenience, to avoid traffic, to save money, to reduce stress and because it's good for the environment.
Between one-fourth and one-third said that, other than trips for work or school, they'd use light rail for concerts, Tides baseball games, shopping and dining. They said they'd do so to avoid the hassle of traffic and parking, and because it's convenient. Some said they would ride it out of curiosity or for the fun of it.
Those who said they would not ride light rail overwhelmingly said it does not go where they live or where they work. They also said they want the flexibility their cars provide.
The 7.4-mile rail line runs from the Eastern Virginia Medical Center on Brambleton Avenue, through downtown, to the Norfolk-Virginia Beach city line at Newtown Road.
Rick Schonscheck, who lives in Easton Place near Newtown Road, said he's excited about riding light rail into downtown for entertainment, but he wishes it went to the Norfolk Naval Station, where he works.
"My expectation is that it will grow someday," he said.
Schonscheck said his sister, a medical transcriptionist, is considering moving here from out of state to a neighborhood along the rail route because of its proximity to medical complexes on both ends of the line.
Nicky Copeland works at Sentara Norfolk General Hospital and lives in Bayview, so light rail will not help her commute: "It would be more efficient because gas is really expensive, but from where I am, I've already got to drive, so I may as well keep going."
However, Copeland plans to ride from her work to downtown "just because it's new, to see what it's like."
The staff at Senior Services of Southeastern Virginia is excited about the mobility that light rail can offer the elderly. They're taking a group of close to 70 senior citizens for a ride on opening day to familiarize them with the service.
"Our culture in Hampton Roads has not supported public transportation.... But I honestly think our seniors are going to be the leaders in the region to adopt a transit culture," said John Skirven, the agency's CEO, who noted that 1-in-5 seniors don't drive.
Skirven's agency provides transportation for seniors to medical appointments, social centers and shopping, but it books up quickly, and often turns down as many as 100 requests for rides each month.
"Transportation is rated by seniors as one of the top three unmet needs they have," he said.
A deterrent to using rail, Skirven said, would be inefficient bus connections at train stations. It's also a concern of some transit advocates, even though HRT has revamped its bus routes to provide more buses and more frequent service at Tide stations.
Mark Perreault, who will try riding the bus from his Larchmont home to the EVMC station and rail to his job downtown, said his commitment to transit will likely ride on the reliability of feeder buses.
"The buses have to keep their schedule," he said.
"Being late for a meeting because the bus wasn't on time," he said, "... once something like that happens, it could be tough."
Judith Brown, who heads HRT's Transit Riders Advisory Committee, agrees that selling The Tide to new riders who must connect by bus may be a challenge.
"People aren't necessarily ready to try the buses to get to The Tide," she said. "But I think that will come."
Debbie Messina, (757) 446-2588, debbie.messina@pilotonline.com
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Copyright (c) 2011, The Virginian-Pilot, Norfolk, Va.
I hope this takes off. The train and stations look great and the stops are logical, and some TODs have popped up. But it has gotten a lot of negative local press for going way over budget, and because all the cities in this area fight each other for supremacy like Itchy & Scratchy rather than doing anything collaboratively, Virginia Beach backed out on extending the line into VB. That means an abrupt end point at the city line, at least for now. It'd be terrific if one day this would extend all the way to the VB oceanfront.