http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-05-19/republican-governor-popularity-plummets-from-ohios-kasich-to-floridas-scott-to-wisconsins-walker/?cid=hp:mainpromo7 (http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-05-19/republican-governor-popularity-plummets-from-ohios-kasich-to-floridas-scott-to-wisconsins-walker/?cid=hp:mainpromo7)
QuoteThe cycle of over-reach and backlash is in over-drive these daysâ€"with significant implications for the 2012 presidential election. In pivotal swing-states where voters narrowly elected Republican governors in 2010â€"like Florida and Ohio (with 47 electoral votes between them)â€"evidence of buyer's remorse is piling up fast.
The latest sign: on Tuesday, Alvin Brown became the first Democrat elected mayor of Jacksonvilleâ€"Florida's largest cityâ€"in 20 years.
Just seven months ago, Republicans swept the Sunshine State with Tea Party-backed candidate Rick Scott winning the governor's office with a 1.2 percent margin of victory.
But instead of consolidating support by reaching out and winning over the reasonable edge of the opposition, as popular past Republican governors like Jeb Bush and Charlie Crist have done, Scott continued with his campaign posture of refusing to talk to the press. He canceled a $2 billion federal high-speed rail project and is seeking to delay (and functionally deny) implementation of an anti-gerrymandering reform ballot referendum overwhelmingly passed in 2010.
Now Rick Scott finds himself the least popular newly elected governor in Florida history. It's not just a matter of the honeymoon being overâ€"this looks like a drunken Vegas marriage heading for a shotgun divorce.
Fifty-five percent of Florida voters disapprove of Scott's job in office, while only 32 percent approve, according to a mid-April PPP poll. The Suffolk University poll found that 41 percent of respondents said the new gov's first months in office had been "negative and damaging" while only 26 percent described it as "positive and productive." The analysis by Suffolk Political Director David Paleologos is worth quoting at length: "It's taken Gov. Scott less than 100 days to begin a free fall in popularity and to generate negative perceptions about job performance and damaging the state he was elected to lead…There has been a backlash in public opinion on both sides of the aisle in response to his aggressive and uncompromising leadership style."
Reflecting on the upset in the Jacksonville mayor's race, St. Petersburg Political Editor Adam Smith said, "Jacksonville is a Republican stronghold, but even with that relatively conservative electorate polls show Barack Obama more popular than Rick Scott. That election in Florida's largest city was not about Obama or Scott, but there's no question that Scott's talk about draconian cuts to school budgets and other services helped elect a Democrat arguing that cuts need to be targeted and strategic. One of the best days for Democrat Alvin Brown came when Rick Scott came to Jacksonville to campaign for the Republican mayoral nominee at a Tea Party rally."
I'm on my way to Central Florida now and just finished listening to an Alvin Brown interview on the Tom Joyner Morning Show.
Quote from: thelakelander on May 20, 2011, 07:50:47 AM
I'm on my way to Central Florida now and just finished listening to an Alvin Brown interview on the Tom Joyner Morning Show.
Fantastic.
I thought I'd never say this. Thanks, Rick.
Sometimes things happen for a reason. We may not understand it at the time.
From Daily Kos yesterday:
Quote• Jacksonville, FL Mayor: Another very interesting result from Tuesday night was the Jacksonville mayoral race, where Democrat and former Bill Clinton aide Alvin Brown has defeated Republican Mike Hogan in one of the most conservative major cities in America. Indeed, the last time a Dem won the job was twenty years ago. After clinging to a narrow 585-vote lead on election night, the FL Dem Party tweeted yesterday that Brown won by 1,536 votes after absentees and provisionals had been counted, which means there won't be a recount. Anyhow, this is really nice win, and also some serious egg on the face of the Florida GOP, who had expected to win "handily" and even sent Marco Rubio in to take a premature victory lap with Hogan. Oops.
Quote from: thelakelander on May 20, 2011, 07:56:37 AM
I thought I'd never say this. Thanks, Rick.
Thanks, Rick! And a special thanks to Billie, too!
Brown's Election Bodes Well for Divided City
Date: Friday, May 20, 2011, 6:05 am
By: Michael H. Cottman, BlackAmericaWeb.com
Quote...
It may take more than one term for Brown to make good on his promise to unite the citizens of Jacksonville, but it’s reassuring to know that he isn't shy about offering bold ideals as he prepares to become the city’s next mayor.
http://www.blackamericaweb.com/?q=articles/news/baw_commentary_news/28676
Although I voted for Alvin Brown, it was not because he is a Democrat, but because he was the best candidate for the office. Brown himself said he did not campaign on a partisan basis. That's the important message.
Party politics are part of the problem, not the solution. Other politicians should take heed; we need and want people who are inclusive and are seeking solutions to the very serious problems we face.
Quote from: tayana42 on May 20, 2011, 09:06:05 AM
Party politics are part of the problem, not the solution.
Agreed!
Quote from: thelakelander on May 20, 2011, 07:50:47 AM
I'm on my way to Central Florida now and just finished listening to an Alvin Brown interview on the Tom Joyner Morning Show.
You had better be on one of the fancy buses and not texting and driving at the same time!!
From Daily Kos:
QuoteOn Tuesday night, a funny thing happened: A Democrat won the mayoral race in Jacksonville, Florida. Alvin Brown, a one-time aide to Bill Clinton, upset Mike Hogan - an upset because Jacksonville is one of the most conservative big cities in America, and because Republicans were confident they had this one in the bag:
"The party is telling me Hogan should win pretty handily," [State Senate President Mike] Haridopolos said.
The party in this case was the Republican Party of Florida, which invested in polling and had sent operatives to Duval to help ensure the campaign delivered. The margin being bandied around yesterday by various party officials I spoke with was between 6 and 10 points.
Instead, Brown prevailed by just under one percent, becoming the first Democrat to win the Jacksonvile mayor's job since 1991, and the first African-American to ever hold the post. So what accounted for Brown's victory? Success, of course, always has many fathers, but in this case, it also has one giant anvil shaped just like Rick Scott:
As analysts dissect the Jacksonville mayoral race to learn what propelled Democrat Alvin Brown to victory over his GOP rival, one point continues to crop up â€" Gov. Rick Scott is not very popular in Duval County.
"We were thrilled when he endorsed Mike Hogan," Dave Beattie told the Times-Union today. "Barack Obama is actually viewed more positively in Duval County than Rick Scott."
Beattie, who served as Brown's pollster throughout the campaign, said Brown wanted to run a Jacksonville-centric race, but benefitted when Republicans would mention Scott.
The governor's disapproval ratings topped 51 percent in the polls Beattie ran of voters who turned out. Scott and Hogan's most fervent backers â€" the tea party â€" also fared poorly in the polling done throughout the campaign.
Beattie, the pollster, also said that Rick Scott's assault on education funding helped propel that issue to the top of voters' concerns. Florida Democrats have had a tough go of things lately, so not only is this a very nice win, but it's also good to see that Scott's over-reach is leading to serious blowback. I'm sure this won't be the last race where he figures prominently, and Scott's fellow crop of freshman governors â€" like John Kasich in Ohio, Scott Walker in Wisconsin, Rick Snyder in Michigan, and more â€" are likely to have similar downballot effects. It's awful that these guys got elected in the first place, but at least they are finally doing some good now â€" for us.
BTW, I agree that the Obama/Scott inferences are overblown, but it did have an affect, and with such a narrow win, any one of many things could have tipped the scales.
Quote
FLORIDA'S FIRST COAST SHOCKS THE GOP
May 23, 2011 â€"
As a college senior at Trinity University in San Antonio, Texas in 1991, I met and began dating my future wife, a native of Jacksonville, Florida. That year was also the last time her city saw the election of a Democrat as mayor. This column examines how the city last week chose its first Democrat in 20 years, an African-American in a city with a black population of less than 30%.
In the time it took me to graduate after meeting Beth, Mayor Ed Austin had already switched parties, telling some he didn’t want to “die a Democrat in a plane crash,†or so the rumor goes. Since then, on frequent visits, I chat with relatives and my wife’s friends, all spread throughout the state, watch the news and the political ads, read the Florida Times-Union, always with an eye toward politics. And here’s what I learned.
First of all, the city’s media establishment is very conservative, so don’t take this as a media-driven event. If anything, it explains why Democrats were in the political wilderness for so long. The local media is to conservatives what NPR is to liberals.
Second of all, this GOP collapse is not due to the prior mayors. Mayor Austin only lasted a term, though I didn’t notice anything unappealing about him. But John Delaney and John Peyton of the GOP ran the city in the manner of a Jeb Bush, a more open-minded Republican.
Third, this is not some unprecedented “where did this election of an African-American in the South come from.†After all, Nat Glover was elected as the Sheriff of Duval County in 1995 for two terms. Had Peyton not had the Gate Petroleum connection and a somewhat moderate campaign, Glover would have won the close election of 2003.
So how did former Clinton-Gore official Alvin Brown squeak by in the runoff for the Jacksonville mayor last week? He faced Mike Hogan, the city tax collector who had a more politically-connected resume. Hogan finished first in the initial election, and probably could have who the overall race in a city that voted for John McCain over Barack Obama, if it were not for several factors.
-- Hogan seemed to make enemies. Sure, the city tax collector job can be a thankless one many times, but several in the GOP crossed over to endorse Brown as the result of feuds with Hogan.
-- Hogan did not run the best of campaigns. He had a great idea about partnerships between schools and businesses. But his campaign became defined by a lot of caustic comments from TEA Party types, which turned off moderates. Women felt his ads were condescending. Polls indicated that Brown did much better among women than Hogan.
-- Younger people backed Brown. The myth of Jacksonville is that it’s an old person's town. And polls showed Hogan winning the older vote, with Brown getting the youth vote. The city has a smaller population of retirees than the state average, with a greater number of younger people than the state average, according to the census data.
-- The “Rick Scott effect†may have played a role. Polls show the new Florida governor is in a political free-fall. It’s not about trains per se, but more about style, according to those I chat with. And the effects are not just in the GOP bastion of Jacksonville, as Democrats won the Tampa Mayoral election, the same office once held by conservative Bob Martinez.
-- A Times Union analysis suggests another reason: Brown's forces outworked Hogan's on the ground, always a factor in a close race.
Regardless, national Republicans cannot afford to overlook the mistakes of Hogan and Scott. To have any chance of beating Obama, the GOP must retake Florida. And they cannot retake Florida without Jacksonville, one of the relatively few areas where they did well in the last presidential election.
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_523_1980.aspx (http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_523_1980.aspx)
Quote from: vicupstate on May 24, 2011, 12:34:54 PM
Quote
FLORIDA'S FIRST COAST SHOCKS THE GOP
May 23, 2011 â€"
As a college senior at Trinity University in San Antonio, Texas in 1991, I met and began dating my future wife, a native of Jacksonville, Florida. That year was also the last time her city saw the election of a Democrat as mayor. This column examines how the city last week chose its first Democrat in 20 years, an African-American in a city with a black population of less than 30%.
In the time it took me to graduate after meeting Beth, Mayor Ed Austin had already switched parties, telling some he didn’t want to “die a Democrat in a plane crash,†or so the rumor goes. Since then, on frequent visits, I chat with relatives and my wife’s friends, all spread throughout the state, watch the news and the political ads, read the Florida Times-Union, always with an eye toward politics. And here’s what I learned.
First of all, the city’s media establishment is very conservative, so don’t take this as a media-driven event. If anything, it explains why Democrats were in the political wilderness for so long. The local media is to conservatives what NPR is to liberals.
Second of all, this GOP collapse is not due to the prior mayors. Mayor Austin only lasted a term, though I didn’t notice anything unappealing about him. But John Delaney and John Peyton of the GOP ran the city in the manner of a Jeb Bush, a more open-minded Republican.
Third, this is not some unprecedented “where did this election of an African-American in the South come from.†After all, Nat Glover was elected as the Sheriff of Duval County in 1995 for two terms. Had Peyton not had the Gate Petroleum connection and a somewhat moderate campaign, Glover would have won the close election of 2003.
So how did former Clinton-Gore official Alvin Brown squeak by in the runoff for the Jacksonville mayor last week? He faced Mike Hogan, the city tax collector who had a more politically-connected resume. Hogan finished first in the initial election, and probably could have who the overall race in a city that voted for John McCain over Barack Obama, if it were not for several factors.
-- Hogan seemed to make enemies. Sure, the city tax collector job can be a thankless one many times, but several in the GOP crossed over to endorse Brown as the result of feuds with Hogan.
-- Hogan did not run the best of campaigns. He had a great idea about partnerships between schools and businesses. But his campaign became defined by a lot of caustic comments from TEA Party types, which turned off moderates. Women felt his ads were condescending. Polls indicated that Brown did much better among women than Hogan.
-- Younger people backed Brown. The myth of Jacksonville is that it’s an old person's town. And polls showed Hogan winning the older vote, with Brown getting the youth vote. The city has a smaller population of retirees than the state average, with a greater number of younger people than the state average, according to the census data.
-- The “Rick Scott effect†may have played a role. Polls show the new Florida governor is in a political free-fall. It’s not about trains per se, but more about style, according to those I chat with. And the effects are not just in the GOP bastion of Jacksonville, as Democrats won the Tampa Mayoral election, the same office once held by conservative Bob Martinez.
-- A Times Union analysis suggests another reason: Brown's forces outworked Hogan's on the ground, always a factor in a close race.
Regardless, national Republicans cannot afford to overlook the mistakes of Hogan and Scott. To have any chance of beating Obama, the GOP must retake Florida. And they cannot retake Florida without Jacksonville, one of the relatively few areas where they did well in the last presidential election.
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_523_1980.aspx (http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_523_1980.aspx)
I hate when they have inaccurate information. The last census results showed our africian american population actually went from 29% to 30%. Where they get less than 30%, I have no idea.
Quote from: danno on May 20, 2011, 07:58:08 AM
Sometimes things happen for a reason. We may not understand it at the time.
I agree. And I'm happy things worked out the way they did. I was very concerned about our future, DT in particular. I had been praying long and hard (not kidding) about the turn around of this city. When Brown was elected, putting my male ego aside, I did cry. Being a Jacksonville native I want to see us flourish. With so many positive things happening for the JAGS (no blackouts, naming rights, new QB, three nationally televised games this year) and Brown being elected mayor, for the first time in a long time things are looking up for us. :)
^^ +1
In Jacksonville mayoral loss, lessons for Florida GOP
By Adam C. Smith, Times Political Editor
In Print: Friday, May 20, 2011
> Republican leaders said over and over in recent weeks that a race for mayor of Jacksonville amounted to the first big Florida fight in the 2012 presidential race.
>
> "The liberal organizers who want to keep the American people enslaved by wasteful spending and hideous deficits need to know that they have jumped the gun on 2012 and have awakened a sleeping giant," Duval County Republican chairman Lenny Curry declared this month before handing a $50,000 check to Republican mayoral candidate Mike Hogan. "We're going to send a message that Florida is red."
>
> Republicans better hope Curry is wrong about the race being a harbinger, because an African-American Democrat named Alvin Brown this week was elected mayor of Florida's largest county. Across Florida and the country, stunned Republicans are struggling to understand the narrow upset in conservative northeast Florida.
>
> "Jacksonville has always been a conservative stronghold for Republicans, and we're going to have to really study what happened in this race," said Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos, a U.S. Senate candidate who had expected Hogan to win handily.
>
> Municipal elections tend to be much more about local issues than partisan politics, but the Jacksonville election does provide some warnings to the Florida GOP.
>
> For one thing, it showed the Florida Democratic Party still has a pulse after the drubbing it took in 2010. The party spent more than $500,000 helping Brown, a centrist business school dean and former Bill Clinton staffer, and demonstrated a formidable turnout operation.
>
> "Obviously, we're very aware of what they did there. It was very effective," said Republican National Committee member Paul Senft of Polk County, who said the committee was buzzing about the Jacksonville results while meeting in Dallas this week.
>
> What's more, Brown's win showed the risks of fully embracing archconservative tea partiers â€" as Hogan did â€" and suggested Republicans may face some fallout over the perceptions of Gov. Rick Scott and the Republican-controlled Legislature.
>
> Scott, who frequently visits Jacksonville, is less popular there than President Barack Obama, and he campaigned for Hogan at a high-profile tea party rally.
>
> "We were very happy when Rick Scott came to town. We were all for that," said Brown's pollster, David Beattie, laughing.
>
> The race was not a referendum on Scott, Beattie noted, but the deep cuts to education that Scott and the Legislature worked on during the legislative session helped drive much of the campaign debate. School officials in Jacksonville talked about eliminating athletic programs and cutting school to four days a week.
>
> "It allowed us to talk about who's going to support public schools in Duval â€" the guy who cut public school funding while in the Legislature or the one who has two kids in schools," Beattie said, noting that northeast Florida has a younger population than much of Florida.
>
> Brown campaigned as probusiness centrist who would focus on job creation and never raise taxes. A number of prominent Republicans, including former St. Joe Co. chief executive Peter Rummell, supported him.
>
> Hogan, meanwhile, cast himself as a tea party candidate in the mold of Scott. He avoided debates and shied away from coverage.
>
> "In the November elections, if you said 'tea party,' that was fabulous," noted Chis Verlander of the business group Associated Industries of Florida, which backed Hogan. "But the tea party's sex appeal, for lack of a better term, may not be as strong today."
>
> Some veteran GOP activists in Jacksonville are grumbling that tea party members in Jacksonville proved far better at making noise than winning votes.
>
> First Coast Tea Party leader Billie Tucker, an early Rick Scott supporter, raised eyebrows when she railed against Brown-supporting "zombies" spreading through Jacksonville. Among the tidbits of advice she offered conservatives on her blog: "Pray. Zombies hate people who pray. They don't believe in it and that is a good thing! We know the power of prayer can release a Zombie from the stronghold they are under. Pray for all the Zombies and keep praying that they will see the light."
>
> Democrats welcomed the tea party visibility.
>
> "The tea party absolutely was a factor in our favor," said Scott Arceneaux, executive director of the Florida Democratic Party. "There was a tea party surge in 2010, but it's subsided. They've turned moderate and independent voters off, and it helped Alvin garner as much Republican support as he did."
>
> Curry, the Duval GOP chairman, said the party will take nothing for granted in 2012.
>
> "There's plenty of blame to go around," Curry said. "What we know is that a lot of Republicans voted for Alvin Brown. The party's going to move on, plug our holes and be ready for next year."
>
> Times staff writer Alex Leary contributed to this report. Adam C. Smith can be reached at asmith@sptimes.com.
>
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