QuoteAPRIL 18, 2011
Watching Jacksonville's mayoral race
Tip O'Neill's view that all politics is local applies particularly well to mayoral contests, where partisanship tends to be trumped by other factors. We saw that in the election of (Republican) Bill Foster in St. Petersburg in 2009 and the election of (Democrat) Bob Buckhorn this year.
Now there's a fascinating mayor's race playing out in Jacksonville, featuring a tea party Republican, Duval Tax Collector Mike Hogan, against a conservative African-American Democrat, Alvin Brown, a former Bill Clinton aide and now a business school dean.
Jacksonville's most recent mayors, John Peyton and John Delaney, have been moderate Republicans, but in the era of tea party activism, there's a chance voters in the May 17 election may find a centrist Democrat more reflective of the community than a hard-right Republican whose campaign website talks about his commitment to protecting gun rights and combating abortion and illegal immigration, before creating jobs.
Stunningly, one of Florida's top Republican fundraisers, former St. Joe chief executive Peter Rummell, endorsed Brown on Friday. Not stunningly, Gov. Rick Scott on Friday joined Hogan â€" the heavy favorite â€" for a tea party antitax rally.
Even while many voters put aside partisanship, the results on May 17 could be an indicator of the climate facing Barack Obama in 2012. After all, George W. Bush won Duval County by 16 percentage points, or nearly 62,000 votes, in 2004, while John McCain in 2008 edged out Obama by less than 2 percent, under 8,000 votes.
"If Alvin Brown gets in the low 40s or doesn't even crack 40 percent, that's not a good sign for Obama," said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker.
Brown's pollster, Dave Beattie, said in a recent memo that the race will come down to who has the resources to define themselves and turn out their base: "(Brown) was outspent by a greater than 23-to-1 margin by the other major candidates combined. Yet he is still within striking distance because of a strong grassroots campaign and a message that isn’t about race or partisanship, but about the future of Jacksonville. The campaign is a simple choice for voters -- the past or the future: Alvin Brown, who is a businessman who will lead the city in a new direction, or Mike Hogan, who is a 20-year politician who supported the policies that led to our city budget expanding, taxes increasing, and public education failing. If Brown has the resources to communicate his forward-looking vision of Jacksonville to a wider audience, he can win in May.
Source: St. Petersburg Times
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/watching-jacksonvilles-mayoral-race
If Brown wins I think this would become a national story.
Quote from: fsujax on April 19, 2011, 10:36:52 AM
If Brown wins I think this would become a national story.
I would be gleaming with tears and live to breathe the day Jacksonville has finally cracked its shell open.
-Josh
This would be monumental for our city, however being an Africian American I already know this will be a hard pill for some to swallow. As quiet as its kept, there is still very poor race relations in this city (if you cacth my drift). If/when he wins (wishful thinking), there is going to be tension for quite sometime. However, I do feel that once the fear of change goes away, everything will be smooth sailing.
Not only the racial factor, but just the politics alone. Pundits would have a field day with it.
I think that it could have the same impact that Mayor Hartsfield had on Atlanta. A potential turning point for our city!
Quote from: Jaxson on April 19, 2011, 11:17:45 AM
I think that it could have the same impact that Mayor Hartsfield had on Atlanta. A potential turning point for our city!
Man I wacthed a special how he turned that city Atlanta around. And Atlanta was majority white when he got elected. He was amazing! It was jaw dropping to see the thing that happen under his administration.
Talk about jaw-dropping! If Alvin wins, it will feel like an aftershock in this city, with all the jaws dropping.
Quote from: Timkin on April 19, 2011, 11:55:12 AM
Talk about jaw-dropping! If Alvin wins, it will feel like an aftershock in this city, with all the jaws dropping.
I actually predict a mass suicide in the st john's river if Alvin win's. LMAO
LOL.. hey ...gotta do what ya gotta do. So jump off a bridge and make it count ;) :P
Race, from my point of view, has no bearing on this...........it is a question of who is the right person for the job and as of today, Mr Hogan has not convinced me of much of anything! Until he does, Mr Brown will get my vote, along with my significant other!
agree
also agree
The man who turned Baltimore's Downtown from a slum to a national standard for revitilization, died yesterday. He also served as MD Governor (1987-1995) after serving as Mayor from 1971 to 1987.
"You don't need a charming, wavy-haired talker for a mayor. You need the toughest, canniest, most obsessive sonofabitch in town. You need someone who's going to make it his life."
-- William Donald Schafer, who died yesterday, quoted in a great 1984 Esquire profile, which is now online thanks to Ben Smith.
After 8 years of wavy hair, Jax now needs the latter.
May he rest in peace. May we end up with such a Mayor.
Having spent my summers in Baltimore as a youth, I have to say that I was very impressed by Baltimore City and how they brought new life back to their urban core. William Donald Schaefer worked hard to promote his city and he has an amazing legacy. Great minds make for great cities!
On a side note, Baltimore City is unique in that it is its own city/county. It is mutually exclusive from surrounding Baltimore County (Towson is the county seat of Baltimore County).
Quote from: CS Foltz on April 19, 2011, 12:30:38 PM
Race, from my point of view, has no bearing on this...........it is a question of who is the right person for the job and as of today, Mr Hogan has not convinced me of much of anything! Until he does, Mr Brown will get my vote, along with my significant other!
CS Foltz, That is true for some of us, but not all of us. some people really do base things on race, in this city in particular. However, my hopes are that the people of this city takes on our mindset. I am looking at who's the right man for the job. And Hogan has convience me of sqwat either. Hopefully this city will finally unify if Brown wins. That will be a huge step in the right direction.
Quote from: wsansewjs on April 19, 2011, 10:46:46 AM
Quote from: fsujax on April 19, 2011, 10:36:52 AM
If Brown wins I think this would become a national story.
I would be gleaming with tears and live to breathe the day Jacksonville has finally cracked its shell open.
-Josh
Thats an interesting statement
QuoteI would be gleaming with tears and live to breathe the day Jacksonville has finally cracked its shell open.
-Josh
Wow, he must walk on water in his spare time too!
He's not the only one who must :)
From the article:
QuoteThe campaign is a simple choice for voters -- the past or the future: Alvin Brown, who is a businessman who will lead the city in a new direction, or Mike Hogan, who is a 20-year politician who supported the policies that led to our city budget expanding, taxes increasing, and public education failing. If Brown has the resources to communicate his forward-looking vision of Jacksonville to a wider audience, he can will win in May.
I like the sound of that ;D
Jacksonville CAN become an exciting city for a NEW generation!!!!
QuoteIf Brown has the resources to communicate his forward-looking vision of Jacksonville
300,000 will not get the job done. Where are the public rallies, where is Stephen getting on his pulpit and proclaiming the good word of the day? Time is a wasting here folks, you really need to step it up a lot as we are closing in on judgement day.
Quote from: mtraininjax on April 20, 2011, 09:08:32 AM
300,000 will not get the job done. Where are the public rallies, where is Stephen getting on his pulpit and proclaiming the good word of the day? Time is a wasting here folks, you really need to step it up a lot as we are closing in on judgement day.
you might want to tell that to Hogan...after all, its his lead that shrinks more each day
Ideally, a gradual but steady climb up is the preferred way to pull off an upset. If the uptick happens too soon or too much, it tips off the opposition that there really is a genuine threat.
If the crossover into the lead occurs just before or on election day, it is too late for the opposition to react.
If I were Alvin Brown, I would still want to be behind in the polls, but climbing. If Brown is no MORE than 10 points down, he is about where he needs to be,IMO.
Many 'upsets in the making' unraveled because the 'underdog' peaked too soon.
Quote from: mtraininjax on April 20, 2011, 09:08:32 AM
QuoteIf Brown has the resources to communicate his forward-looking vision of Jacksonville
300,000 will not get the job done. Where are the public rallies, where is Stephen getting on his pulpit and proclaiming the good word of the day? Time is a wasting here folks, you really need to step it up a lot as we are closing in on judgement day.
You might want to consider this example from Indianapolis, a similiar-sized consolidated city.
QuoteGregory A. Ballard (born 1954) is the Republican mayor of Indianapolis, Indiana, United States. On Tuesday, November 6, 2007, he defeated two-term incumbent Democratic Mayor Bart Peterson by 51% to 47%.[1] It was described as one of the biggest upsets in the political history of Indiana
Ballard was dramatically outspent by Peterson. He had only $300,000 in campaign funds and low name recognition when he began the race.[4] In comparison, Peterson already had $2.9 million in April while Ballard had only $9,560 at the time.[5] As late as October 14, Ballard had run no TV ads.[5] An October 19 campaign finance report showed that Peterson had raised $1.5 million since April and still had that much on hand to spend. At that point in time Ballard had only $51,000 left, meaning that Peterson had 30 times the funds that Ballard had during the last three weeks of the campaign.[6]
Nonetheless, on November 6, 2007, Ballard won the race to become mayor of Indianapolis. Unhappiness with rapidly increasing taxes and crime were seen as the biggest reasons for Peterson's defeat. Republicans also recaptured control of the City-County Council for the first time in four years. In his acceptance speech, Ballard told the audience he considers this campaign "the classic, if not the ultimate, example of grassroots politics."[7
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gregory_A._Ballard (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gregory_A._Ballard)
Post from Mtrain about why Indianapolis can't be compared to Jacksonville in 3, 2, 1 ...