Will Russia invade Ukraine?

[Tacachale]

To reiterate our policy, we aren't going to allow conspiracy theories and false information on the forum. It's also unlikely to be a welcoming place for people hinting at conspiracy theories and Russian propaganda.

[I-10east]

Right on cue

[BridgeTroll]

^^^I wasn't even referring to you or anything. Why are you so aggressive? LOL. The same cabal of globalists gets to decide on what's "credible" or not...I don't have a damn dog in the fight; anyone saying I'm "Kremlin propaganda" probably already drunk the Kyiv Kool Aid.

If you insist with the link....Here's link from "the conservative friendly" Salon. Don't worry it's a "long story" though.... There's much more red flags too.... https://www.salon.com/2022/03/10/are-there-really-neo-nazis-fighting-for-ukraine-well-yes--but-its-a-long-story/

Thanks for the link.  On this site we ask for proof or at least links to support your position. My "aggressiveness" is simply questioning your list of allegations without any kind of proof or evidence to actually agree or disagree with.

It's no secret Ukraine has had struggles in the past with corruption and extremist groups on the left, right, russian, euro... In the past few years they have made progress eliminating their influence. Clearly Russia has grabbed the fact that there are "neonazi" elements within Ukraine as a pretext to invade and destroy a democratic elected government... (A Jewish president btw) Neonazi groups are present in virtually all democracies... including this one.

Putin's use of "de nazification" is simply an excuse or pretext to invade. He did the same in Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea, and the Ukrainian Donbas region. He found an excuse or pretext to invade and absorb those territories... same thing here I-10.  Don't drink the kool-aid...

[BridgeTroll]

WOW... if you are interested in a non partisan perspective from a informed and respected Chinese citizen read this translated article...

https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/

The Russo-Ukrainian War is the most severe geopolitical conflict since World War II and will result in far greater global consequences than September 11 attacks. At this critical moment, China needs to accurately analyze and assess the direction of the war and its potential impact on the international landscape. At the same time, in order to strive for a relatively favorable external environment, China needs to respond flexibly and make strategic choices that conform to its long-term interests.

Russia's 'special military operation' against Ukraine has caused great controvsery in China, with its supporters and opponents being divided into two implacably opposing sides. This article does not represent any party and, for the judgment and reference of the highest decision-making level in China, this article conducts an objective analysis on the possible war consequences along with their corresponding countermeasure options.

I. Predicting the Future of the Russo-Ukrainian War

1.  Vladimir Putin may be unable to achieve his expected goals, which puts Russia in a tight spot. The purpose of Putin's attack was to completely solve the Ukrainian problem and divert attention from Russia's domestic crisis by defeating Ukraine with a blitzkrieg, replacing its leadership, and cultivating a pro-Russian government. However, the blitzkrieg failed, and Russia is unable to support a protracted war and its associated high costs. Launching a nuclear war would put Russia on the opposite side of the whole world and is therefore unwinnable. The situations both at home and abroad are also increasingly unfavorable. Even if the Russian army were to occupy Ukraine's capital Kyiv and set up a puppet government at a high cost, this would not mean final victory. At this point, Putin's best option is to end the war decently through peace talks, which requires Ukraine to make substantial concessions. However, what is not attainable on the battlefield is also difficult to obtain at the negotiating table. In any case, this military action constitutes an irreversible mistake.

2.  The conflict may escalate further, and the West's eventual involvement in the war cannot be ruled out. While the escalation of the war would be costly, there is a high probability that Putin will not give up easily given his character and power. The Russo-Ukrainian war may escalate beyond the scope and region of Ukraine, and may even include the possibility of a nuclear strike. Once this happens, the U.S. and Europe cannot stay aloof from the conflict, thus triggering a world war or even a nuclear war. The result would be a catastrophe for humanity and a showdown between the United States and Russia. This final confrontation, given that Russia's military power is no match for NATO's, would be even worse for Putin.

3.  Even if Russia manages to seize Ukraine in a desperate gamble, it is still a political hot potato. Russia would thereafter carry a heavy burden and become overwhelmed. Under such circumstances, no matter whether Volodymyr Zelensky is alive or not, Ukraine will most likely set up a government-in-exile to confront Russia in the long term. Russia will be subject both to Western sanctions and rebellion within the territory of Ukraine. The battle lines will be drawn very long. The domestic economy will be unsustainable and will eventually be dragged down. This period will not exceed a few years.

4. The political situation in Russia may change or be disintegrated at the hands of the West. After Putin's blitzkrieg failed, the hope of Russia's victory is slim and Western sanctions have reached an unprecedented degree. As people's livelihoods are severely affected and as anti-war and anti-Putin forces gather, the possibility of a political mutiny in Russia cannot be ruled out. With Russia's economy on the verge of collapse, it would be difficult for Putin to prop up the perilous situation even without the loss of the Russo-Ukrainian war. If Putin were to be ousted from power due to civil strife, coup d'état, or another reason, Russia would be even less likely to confront the West. It would surely succumb to the West, or even be further dismembered, and Russia's status as a great power would come to an end.

II. Analysis of the Impact of Russo-Ukrainian war On International Landscape

1. The United States would regain leadership in the Western world, and the West would become more united. At present, public opinion believes that the Ukrainian war signifies a complete collapse of U.S. hegemony, but the war would in fact bring France and Germany, both of which wanted to break away from the U.S., back into the NATO defense framework, destroying Europe's dream to achieve independent diplomacy and self-defense. Germany would greatly increase its military budget; Switzerland, Sweden, and other countries would abandon their neutrality. With Nord Stream 2 put on hold indefinitely, Europe's reliance on US natural gas will inevitably increase. The US and Europe would form a closer community of shared future, and American leadership in the Western world will rebound.

2. The "Iron Curtain" would fall again not only from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, but also to the final confrontation between the Western-dominated camp and its competitors. The West will draw the line between democracies and authoritarian states, defining the divide with Russia as a struggle between democracy and dictatorship. The new Iron Curtain will no longer be drawn between the two camps of socialism and capitalism, nor will it be confined to the Cold War. It will be a life-and-death battle between those for and against Western democracy. The unity of the Western world under the Iron Curtain will have a siphon effect on other countries: the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy will be consolidated, and other countries like Japan will stick even closer to the U.S., which will form an unprecedentedly broad democratic united front.

3. The power of the West will grow significantly, NATO will continue to expand, and U.S. influence in the non-Western world will increase. After the Russo-Ukrainian War, no matter how Russia achieves its political transformation, it will greatly weaken the anti-Western forces in the world. The scene after the 1991 Soviet and Eastern upheavals may repeat itself: theories on "the end of ideology" may reappear, the resurgence of the third wave of democratization will lose momentum, and more third world countries will embrace the West. The West will possess more "hegemony" both in terms of military power and in terms of values and institutions, its hard power and soft power will reach new heights.

4. China will become more isolated under the established framework. For the above reasons, if China does not take proactive measures to respond, it will encounter further containment from the US and the West. Once Putin falls, the U.S. will no longer face two strategic competitors but only have to lock China in strategic containment. Europe will further cut itself off from China; Japan will become the anti-China vanguard; South Korea will further fall to the U.S.; Taiwan will join the anti-China chorus, and the rest of the world will have to choose sides under herd mentality. China will not only be militarily encircled by the U.S., NATO, the QUAD, and AUKUS, but also be challenged by Western values and systems.

III. China's Strategic Choice

1. China cannot be tied to Putin and needs to be cut off as soon as possible. In the sense that an escalation of conflict between Russia and the West helps divert U.S. attention from China, China should rejoice with and even support Putin, but only if Russia does not fall. Being in the same boat with Putin will impact China should he lose power. Unless Putin can secure victory with China's backing, a prospect which looks bleak at the moment, China does not have the clout to back Russia. The law of international politics says that there are "no eternal allies nor perpetual enemies," but "our interests are eternal and perpetual." Under current international circumstances, China can only proceed by safeguarding its own best interests, choosing the lesser of two evils, and unloading the burden of Russia as soon as possible. At present, it is estimated that there is still a window period of one or two weeks before China loses its wiggle room. China must act decisively.

2. China should avoid playing both sides in the same boat, give up being neutral, and choose the mainstream position in the world. At present, China has tried not to offend either side and walked a middle ground in its international statements and choices, including abstaining from the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly votes. However, this position does not meet Russia's needs, and it has infuriated Ukraine and its supporters as well as sympathizers, putting China on the wrong side of much of the world. In some cases, apparent neutrality is a sensible choice, but it does not apply to this war, where China has nothing to gain. Given that China has always advocated respect for national sovereignty and territorial integrity, it can avoid further isolation only by standing with the majority of the countries in the world. This position is also conducive to the settlement of the Taiwan issue.

3. China should achieve the greatest possible strategic breakthrough and not be further isolated by the West. Cutting off from Putin and giving up neutrality will help build China's international image and ease its relations with the U.S. and the West. Though difficult and requiring great wisdom, it is the best option for the future. The view that a geopolitical tussle in Europe triggered by the war in Ukraine will significantly delay the U.S. strategic shift from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region cannot be treated with excessive optimism. There are already voices in the U.S. that Europe is important, but China is more so, and the primary goal of the U.S. is to contain China from becoming the dominant power in the Indo-Pacific region. Under such circumstances, China's top priority is to make appropriate strategic adjustments accordingly, to change the hostile American attitudes towards China, and to save itself from isolation. The bottom line is to prevent the U.S. and the West from imposing joint sanctions on China.

4. China should prevent the outbreak of world wars and nuclear wars and make irreplaceable contributions to world peace. As Putin has explicitly requested Russia's strategic deterrent forces to enter a state of special combat readiness, the Russo-Ukrainian war may spiral out of control. A just cause attracts much support; an unjust one finds little. If Russia instigates a world war or even a nuclear war, it will surely risk the world's turmoil. To demonstrate China's role as a responsible major power, China not only cannot stand with Putin, but also should take concrete actions to prevent Putin's possible adventures. China is the only country in the world with this capability, and it must give full play to this unique advantage. Putin's departure from China's support will most likely end the war, or at least not dare to escalate the war. As a result, China will surely win widespread international praise for maintaining world peace, which may help China prevent isolation but also find an opportunity to improve its relations with the United States and the West.

[BridgeTroll]

Another great non partisan analysis...

https://unherd.com/2022/03/was-ukraine-betrayed-by-its-own-elites/

[I-10east]

Thanks for the link.  On this site we ask for proof or at least links to support your position. My "aggressiveness" is simply questioning your list of allegations without any kind of proof or evidence to actually agree or disagree with.

It's no secret Ukraine has had struggles in the past with corruption and extremist groups on the left, right, russian, euro... In the past few years they have made progress eliminating their influence. Clearly Russia has grabbed the fact that there are "neonazi" elements within Ukraine as a pretext to invade and destroy a democratic elected government... (A Jewish president btw) Neonazi groups are present in virtually all democracies... including this one.

Putin's use of "de nazification" is simply an excuse or pretext to invade. He did the same in Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea, and the Ukrainian Donbas region. He found an excuse or pretext to invade and absorb those territories... same thing here I-10.  Don't drink the kool-aid...

Thank you BT. IMO you are one of the most reasonable voices on this site, it's why I was surprised by your initial reaction. I do agree that Putin used the 'fighting Nazis" excuse to invade Ukraine (and he didn't really care about that), but there were real political reasons concerning why he invaded; I'm not gonna go into those spicy factors. The subtitle of Politics says "Put on your thick skin" but the unwavering political alignment by many says otherwise....

I highly recommend the 2016 documentary that's available on youtube (that's gained recent popularity) called "Ukraine on Fire". It's made by Oliver Stone, who's obviously not some right winger or anything like that. IMO it's not flawless, but it covered many topics concerning the past conflicts of Ukraine, and the corruption in that region.

[BridgeTroll]

Most reasonable??  OMG... you are going to ruin my reputation... I beg you to stop 

[Tacachale]

Oliver Stone is indeed a left winger. He's also a conspiracy theorist.

[BridgeTroll]

Oliver Stone "documentaries" are fictions based loosely on an event or person. His movie JFK was touted as a documentary but it was a conspiracy fiction based on Stone's fantasy and views. He is also a Putin fanboy... Hopefully you are not seeing the Ukrainian situation through Stone's conspiracy tainted eyes...

[Snaketoz]

BT, Post #123 is your best post to date.  Good reading and sensible. Thanks.

[BridgeTroll]

BT, Post #123 is your best post to date.  Good reading and sensible. Thanks.

I can only take credit for finding and posting. It was written by Hu Wei.  Hu Wei is the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor's Office of the State Council, the chairman of Shanghai Public Policy Research Association, the chairman of the Academic Committee of the Chahar Institute, a professor, and a doctoral supervisor.

[BridgeTroll]

Russia escalating... introducing hypersonic missiles.

https://theaviationist.com/2022/03/19/russia-kinzhal-ukraine/

[BridgeTroll]

How do arms get to Ukrainian resistance?  Great article...

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-03-18/secret-transfer-military-equipment-ukrainian-soldiers-5390190.html

Inside the secret transfer of military equipment to Ukrainian soldiers
BY STEVE HENDRIX • THE WASHINGTON POST • MARCH 18, 2022

ON THE POLAND-UKRAINE BORDER — There were no passport officers on the dirt road, no customs lane, no signs marking this isolated patch of farmland for what it has become: a clandestine gateway for military supplies entering Ukraine.

"No pictures, no pictures," shouted a Polish border guard as a convoy of 17 trucks hissed to a halt on a biting morning earlier this week.

Not far from here was a Ukrainian military base where at least 35 people had been killed a few days earlier by a Russian missile barrage, and no one wanted to call attention to this ad hoc border crossing. Washington Post journalists were directed to turn off the geolocation function of their cameras.

The convoy was carrying 45 vehicles — retrofitted Jeeps, ambulances, an armored bank truck and an army field kitchen — as well as 24 tons of diesel. It had traveled overnight from Lithuania as part of a swelling supply network racing to catch up with the return of war to Europe. More than a dozen volunteer drivers, including one whose relief work was normally limited to helping motorists stranded on the highway, had driven hood-to-taillight almost around-the-clock to rendezvous with Ukrainian fighters.

While governments negotiate over fighter jets and high-end weapon systems, soldiers on the ground are struggling to fill more basic needs. With Ukraine's own factories shut down by shelling, its forces rely increasingly on volunteer, pop-up supply chains like this one for vital gear, including body armor, medical supplies and the pickup trucks and SUVs they covet as fighting vehicles.

A second convoy was scheduled to arrive later in the day, packed with generators, radios, surveillance drones, night-vision gear and, most coveted of all, almost 7,000 bulletproof vests and helmets. For the soldiers, it is a lifeline.

"That is what we need the most," said Lt. Andrey Bystriyk, one of the many Ukrainian fighters who had traveled across his war-ravaged country to meet the convoys. His blue eyes teared up when he talked about the aid pouring in from neighboring countries.

"From the army, we get the gun and the ammunition and the uniform," he said. "But under the uniform, what we eat, what keeps us safe, how we move around and fight — that comes from the people, our people and foreign people."

The journey began hundreds of miles to the north in a warehouse in Lithuania, a country not usually thought of as a military supply hub.

But this tiny Baltic nation has seen a huge outpouring of support for Ukraine, imagining what Russian President Vladimir Putin might have in store for it should he prevail in his current invasion. Vilnius, Lithuania's small medieval-era capital, is filled with blue and yellow Ukrainian flags.

Much of the donated money and supplies has flowed to Blue and Yellow, a nonprofit founded in 2014 to supply Ukrainians fighting the takeover of eastern Ukraine by Russian-backed separatists. Now the group is the focal point of a country's yearning to help.

"It has just exploded," said Jonas Ohman, a Swedish-born filmmaker who started the group.

For years, Ohman said, he took no salary and had no paid staff as he fulfilled direct requests from front-line units with an annual budget of less than $200,000. Since the invasion last month, more than $20 million has poured in from within Lithuania, a country of 2.8 million residents. He is dispatching a convoy to the border every four or five days.

With a cellphone held against a days-old beard, Ohman orders military gear by the ton from around Europe, China, Israel. He argues with customs officials in a half-dozen countries to get the shipments delivered, railing against functionaries who block his way and officers who are slaves to regulation.

"I tell them all the time: 10,000 euros can be more deadly than a million if you know how to spend it," he growled between phone calls.

Ohman has filled one donated warehouse on the outskirts of Poland's capital, Warsaw. Another in Vilnius, provided by a Lithuanian transport company, has become a drop-off site for locals wanting to give.

"These will work," one volunteer declared on a recent afternoon when a truck arrived at the Vilnius warehouse with 800 pairs of new steel-toed boots and 1,000 fleece jackets still in the wrapper, all donated by a hunting goods retailer.

A forklift unloaded the cases, depositing them next to 14 pallets of IV saline solutions and boxes filled with 13,000 trauma tourniquets and 200 satellite phones.

A local marketing company has launched a fundraising campaign for the group. And a group of Rotary Club volunteers makes calls to military suppliers in surrounding countries.

"Everything in Europe is selling out," said Zemyna Bliumenzonaite, a Blue and Yellow staffer. "But we are getting more requests than ever."

She held out her phone to show some of the texts she gets from soldiers in Ukraine. One named "Kruk" asked for 1,000 tourniquets and 40 individual first aid kits. She tells him they will be in the next convoy.

"You are our Guardian Angel," he writes back.

"I heard they needed bigger vehicles and four-wheel drives," said Dainius Navikas, 43, a Vilnius management consultant who immediately thought of his black 2015 Grand Cherokee. "I had no choice. The Ukrainians are fighting for us."

Navikas and wife drove the Jeep — along with an extra set of winter tires — to a designated garage on the outskirts of the Lithuanian capital. They found a lot packed with dozens of vehicles ready to be processed and shipped to Ukraine.

Some had been signed over by their owners. Others had been bought by Blue and Yellow.

"When they hear we are buying for Ukraine, a lot them of them drop the price immediately," said Lukas Pacevicius, the owner of the garage, who has largely suspended his regular business activities.

Working overnights and weekends, mechanics check the engines, sending them out to transmission or brake shops if needed. Armor plating is welded to some of the pickups, following specifications provided by the soldiers.

On a recent day, dozens of volunteers were scrambling around the vehicles, covering their windows and headlights with paper and masking tape ahead of repainting the bodies. Workers dodged the vehicles as they were shuttled from one part of the line to another.

Two men wearing Tyvek suits and respirators, well practiced in painting and not too fastidious, transformed Navikas's glossy black Grand Cherokee into a dull green patrol vehicle in under 20 minutes. And then a Mercedes Sprinter, and then a Nissan Pathfinder. An olive mist hung over the entire workshop.

"We want to cover every reflective surface, even the bumpers and wheels," said Rolandas Jundo, the owner of a sign company who was applying window tinting to a Land Rover that still reeked of paint.

Three days later, gassed up with donated fuel, most of the vehicles were driven onto car carriers. Two local tow trucks hitched up four more vehicles. Four men wrangled a military mobile kitchen into a panel truck.

With the sun still high, the convoy pulled out, flanked by a pair of Lithuanian police cars. Just outside of Vilnius, a group of people on a pedestrian bridge shouted and pumped their fists when the odd parade rolled under.

"It feels very important," said one of the drivers, who like several volunteers spoke on the condition of anonymity due to a combination of modesty and security concerns. "We still have a lot of crazy Fifth-Column types around," said another driver, referring to Russian sympathizers.

The convoy moved as fast as its slowest truck, about 50 miles an hour on average. At a gas station just before the Polish border, Lithuanian police handed off to their Polish counterparts. Sometime after 2 a.m., everyone pulled into a rest area north of Warsaw for two hours of sleep.

By dawn, forests had given way to rolling fields. The police escort kept their lights flashing and sounded their sirens as the trucks rumbled through red lights. Surprised locals stared from village sidewalks.

Nineteen hours and many cans of Red Bull later, the convoy pulled up at the unmarked entrance to Ukraine.

Bystriyk, an officer with the Zaporizhzhia Territorial Defense Brigade, had just endured his own all-night drive to reach the rendezvous. His was one of about 20 Ukrainian units, both regular military and volunteer militia, that had dispatched representatives to meet the convoy.

Bystriyk had driven about 11 hours from the area around the besieged city of Dnipro in eastern Ukraine in hopes of getting vehicles and an upgrade on the body armor that most of his men now wear: homemade vests cobbled together by local residents with steel and canvas. "They try to bend it like a body shape, but it doesn't work," he said.

It would take about 3,000 sets of body armor to fully outfit his men, Bystriyk said. He had been told he might get as many as 400 when the second expected convoy arrived. In the meantime, he eagerly eyed the vehicles that were carried by the first one.

"Stingers and Javelins are critical of course," he said of the antiaircraft and antitank missiles. "But for us, these vehicles are essential. They are our firepower, our mobility."

Ukrainian soldiers drove them to a spot where border officials would fill out paperwork and then the vehicles would be distributed. One soldier made a beeline for a brand new CForce quad ATV — to be used in cavalry-like raids by Ukrainian Special Forces — and rode off with a grin.

Bystriyk looked for a truck that his men could mount with a rocket launcher or machine gun, creating one of the "specials" common with fighters in Libya, Syria and other recent hot spots. There weren't as many pickups as in a delivery a week earlier, but he was glad to see Pathfinders, Freelanders, Pajeros.

Videos posted by Ukrainian fighters on social media show teams in SUVs like these outmaneuvering Russian armored vehicles, popping out from forests or side streets to hit them with rocket-propelled grenades and dashing away.

"Every day the Russians try to enter Zaporizhzhia and every day we have stopped them," Bystriyk. "We need these cars. And we are thankful the Lithuanians are bringing them."

In the end, Bystriyk was satisfied with a beefy Nissan Patrol to drive back to the war. But he learned that the convoy with the vests and helmets would be delayed because of a customs hang-up.

He would be back at this unlikely supply site, he knew. Probably many times.

"We need a lot," he said. "And the need is still growing."

[BridgeTroll]

Pretty cool site... the link below documents all aircraft losses during the conflict. The list is accompanied by photographic evidence of each loss...

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html

[BridgeTroll]

Same site same photographic evidence... of equipment (tanks,apc,etc) destroyed captured or abandoned...

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html